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Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd
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Good evening, everyone. Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Third Quarter Financial Year 2020 Earnings Conference Call of ONGC Limited. [Operator Instructions] We will open the floor for Q&A post the presentation. So I would like to now hand over the proceedings to Mr. Subhash Kumar, Director of Finance, ONGC. Over to you, sir.
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. I'm Subhash Kumar, Director of Finance, ONGC. And on behalf of ONGC, I welcome you all in this ONGC's earning call for third quarter FY '20. Thank you all for joining me on this call. I'm joined here by my colleagues, Mr. G.K. Valecha, who is our Chief Corporate Finance, ED; Mr. Akhil Verma, who is Chief Corporate Planning; Mr. Rajarshi Gupta, Corporate Planning and Strategy; Mr. Sanjay Bharathi from Corporate Accounts; Mr. Sanklecha; Mr. A k Chaturvedi from my -- and Mr. Nirmal Kumar, 2 of my colleagues from ONGC Videsh; and Mr. Anupam Agarwal; and of course, Mr. Prakash Joshi from Investor Relations. Now during this quarter -- I'll cover the financial results and highlights. ONGC has compiled its financial results for the quarter ended 31st of December 2019, which have been reviewed by the statutory auditors. The financial results have already been released on 14th of February that is today, through a press note and sent to the stock exchanges. This has also been sent to the analysts, who are there on our mailing list. Let me give a brief synopsis of the results. The company has earned a net profit that is profit after tax of INR 4,152 crore during the third quarter of FY '20, as against INR 8,263 crore during the third quarter of FY '19, which actually represents a decrease of INR 4,111 crores. And in percentage terms, this decrease is 49.8%. Similarly, the profit after tax for 9-month period for this fiscal has also decreased by INR 6,352 crores, that is a decrease of 28% from profit after tax of INR 22,671 crores during the last -- 9 months of last year to INR 16,319 crore in 9 months of this fiscal. The decrease in net profit during the current quarter and the 9-month period of this fiscal is mainly on account of lower sales revenue, that is lower crude price realization, lower other income and higher DD&A expenditure. The sales revenue for quarter 3 FY '20 has decreased by INR 3,987 crore that is 14 -- the reduction of 14.4%, at INR 23,622 crore as against INR 27,609 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. The sales revenue in the current quarter has decreased mainly on account of lower sales revenue from crude oil by INR 2,666 crore, natural gas revenue by INR 699 crore, and lower sales revenue from value-added products by INR 746 crore. Similarly, sales revenue in 9-month period has also decreased by INR 8,176 crore, that is a reduction of 9.9% from INR 82,637 crore in 9-month of previous fiscal to INR 74,461 crore in 9-month period of this fiscal. The sales revenue in 9 months of this fiscal has been lower mainly on account of decrease in sales revenue from crude oil and value-added products by INR 8,759 crore, and INR 1,514 crore for gas. However, sales revenue from natural gas during the current 9-month period has increased by INR 1,421 crore. The billing net of VAT and CST for crude during the third quarter of current fiscal was at INR 59.73 crore -- INR 59.73 per barrel as against USD 66.38 per barrel in the same period of the last year. That's a decrease of $6.65 per barrel and roughly around 10%. The exchange rate of rupees versus dollar stood at INR 71.23 vis-à-vis INR 72.11 in the third quarter of FY '19. Thus realization for the crude in rupee terms stood at INR 4,255 per barrel in Q3 of FY '20 vis-à-vis INR 4,786 in the third quarter of previous fiscal. This amounted to a decrease of 11.1% in INR terms. Similarly, gross billing for crude during the first 9 months of the current fiscal was at USD 62.08 per barrel as against USD 70.29 per barrel in the same period of last year. That's a decrease of USD 8.21 per barrel. And in percentage terms, that amounts to around 12%. The exchange rate of rupee versus dollar stood at INR 70.38 vis-à-vis INR 69.68 in the first 9 months of FY '19. Thus realization for crude in rupee term stood at INR 4,369 per barrel in 9-month period of front year versus INR 4,898 per barrel in 9-month period of FY '19, which amounted to a decrease of 10.8% in INR terms. The amount of profit petroleum has decreased by INR 101 crore from INR 616 crore in Q3 FY '19 to INR 515 crore in Q3 '20. This is actually largely a consequential impact of lower prices. Similarly, the amount of profit petroleum is lower by INR 539 crore in -- from INR 2,002 crore in 9-month period of FY '19 to INR 1,463 crore in 9 months of FY '20. The decrease is mainly on account of the profit petroleum at RJ-ON-90/1 by INR 355 crores. The operating expenditure has decreased by INR 206 crores, that's around 3.5% from 500 -- INR 5,810 crore in Q3 FY '19 to INR 5,604 crores in Q3 of this fiscal. The decrease in Q3 FY '20 is mainly on account of decrease in contractual payment, including hiring charges of INR 230 crores, mainly at Mumbai by INR 298 crore due to implementation of Ind AS 116; transport expense, INR 68 crores; and workover expenditure of INR 116 crores. So I mean, to the extent it is because of Ind AS 116, actually, it is only a way that it is represented in the accounts. This has been partly offset by increase in repairs and maintenance by INR 70 crores. Similarly, the operating expenditures during the 9-month period has also been -- has also decreased by INR 514 crore. The reduction in 9-month period is on account of contractual payments INR 755 crores, that's, again, the impact of Ind AS 116, to a large extent. Workover expenses, INR 221 crore; and transport expenses by INR 159 crore, which were offset partly by increase in repair and maintenance by INR 162 crore, mainly at Mumbai Offshore. Increase in consumption of material INR 408 crore, pertaining mainly to Dahej plant and INR 313 crore on account of increase in purchase of higher quantity of LNG under spot prices. DD&I cost for Q3 FY '20 stood at INR 5,358 crore as against INR 3,452 crore in Q3 FY '19, an increase of INR 1,906 crore. And this represents an increase of 55.2%. The increase is due to the increase in depletion by INR 1,366 crore that is 44.3%, and depreciation by INR 502 crores. The increase in depreciation is mainly due to implementation of Ind AS actually which is the corresponding impact of Ind AS, which I had discussed a little while ago. The ROU depreciation for Q3 FY '20 is INR 1,223 crore, of which, INR 518 crore is charged to P&L. Similarly, there is also an increase of INR 2,950 crore, that is 27.2% in DD&I cost during the 9-month period from INR 10,838 crore in previous 9-month period to INR 13,788 crore in the 9-month period of this fiscal. The increase in 9-month period of this fiscal is attributable to increase in depletion by INR 1,392 crore, depreciation by INR 1,458 crore, and impairment by INR 100 crore. The ROU depreciation for 9-month period of this fiscal is INR 3,282 crore, of which, INR 1,502 crore is charged to P&L. The increase in depletion is mainly due to increase in decommissioning cost estimates on account of increase in the inflation from 3.99% to 7.35%. Further, there's an increase of INR 565 crore in depletion attributable to downgradation of reserves and implementation of TRMS. During Q3 FY '20, the statutory leverage stood at INR 5,657 crore as compared to INR 5,974 crore in Q3 of previous fiscal, that's a decrease of INR 198 crores -- INR 194 crore. That is in the percentage terms, actually, it is a reduction of 3.3%. Similarly, statutory leverage also decreased by INR 1,500 crore, a reduction of around 8% from INR 19,312 crore in 9-month of previous fiscal to INR 17,764 crore in 9-month period of this fiscal. The decrease is on account of lower sales revenue of crude oil. Well friends, with this, I have finished my briefing of the third quarter results of financial year '19/'20. We'll be very happy to take questions from you. We request you to restrict your questions and queries on financial results only. Thank you. Thank you very much.
[Operator Instructions] First question of the day, we have from Amit Rustagi from UBS.
Yes. Sir, could you please explain us that how much net credit we have? And why we are not going for a lower tax regime, which is given in the -- given by the government as an option to us? So that's my first question.
So I think net corrected figure, I'll tell you, it's around INR 4,500 crores to INR 5,000 crores. And secondly, we have not frozen our view on this issue, and this is an ongoing discussion internally. And as you would know, as per process, we have time up to the time of filing the return that we can exercise this option. So -- but I think coming days, probably, before the final accounts I think before even 15th of March, we would be taking a view whether we will be migrating to the new system or not. So we are completing our due diligence. But it's not a closed subject either way.
So then in that case, would we come to know by next month that what is our stance by the way moving towards the lower tax regime or not?
So we'll definitely come to know...
You will intimate the changes as well on this? Or we will come to know only at the end of the financial results, fourth quarter results?
I think you will come to know only through the results of fourth quarter. Unless it -- I mean, there is some requirements. Since you asked, let me check if there is a requirement to disclose before that. There doesn't appear to be any. So I mean, the implicit in this is how -- probably the question how we will deal with the post fourth installment of advance tax so that, we will handle the way we handle currently. Because that -- there is no requirement to disclose that.
Okay. Sir, when we look at the performance of the company over 9 months, so our production is going down. The relations are going down. And the costs are going up. So we have like if I look at the other expenditure in this quarter, the other expenditure is higher by roughly 30% than the third quarter of last year. So the other expenditure in this quarter is INR 4,613 crore, and the third quarter of last year was INR 3,800 crore. And I hope that there will be some adjustments on account of -- the expenditure should be lower this quarter on account of levies as well. So where do you see that the business outlook for the company? There's the cost going up, relations going down and the production going down. So what do you think that -- what will be the outlook on the profitability?
Okay. So I think let's start with the top line, which basically is some product of 2 things. One is the production of volumes and another is the prices. So as far as production is concerned, we have -- we are likely to be around the numbers of the previous year. And if you really look at the 9-month period, actually, we are very close to the previous year number. And we believe that we will be -- or round about the same number as we have had in the previous year. In fact, on an overall basis, we were a bit lower than previous year. But that percentage is low, around 1% to 3% lower when it comes to oil and gas, as that is the position for 9-month period. So that's on the production front. As far as, let's say, prices are concerned, prices for this year on the whole have been softer. And latest event was relating to this coronavirus has affected the industry on the whole. And there are different projections from a very -- I mean, all kinds of projections are there today. So one, on account of coronavirus, and another because of perceived supply glut and non-holding of some sort of arrangement between the OPEC plus. So these seem to be the 3 factors. But I think at the end of the day, some sort of revival will happen, but a large issue in the fourth quarter, on an immediate basis, will be the way the things unravel on coronavirus front. That will be the major impacting factor. And as far as OPEC plus is concerned, they are already engaged -- they ceased off the matter, and I hope that we will be reacting accordingly. So I think the -- while on immediate near future, there could be a reduction, I would still believe -- what I somewhere said in first -- last quarter call of our annual results call in 2018, that we believe that $60 to $65 is the number that which we look in terms of the prices on a medium- to long-term basis, and that is what I see holding on that -- in that context. Our planning is also based on something similar, and what do we do also prepare scenarios in case the prices were to be lower by a certain percentage, let's say, 10% to 20% from...
Sir, I understand that fuel prices are not in our control. And only 2 variables, which are under our control are the production and the cost. So if I'm looking at the production, oil production is down around 4.3% Y-o-Y. Gas production is down around 2.1%. And the costs are up significantly. So DD&A cost -- the DD&A cost in the first 9 months of last year was INR 160 billion and this year, it's already INR 195 billion this year in the first. Yes. So then at least on the cost front, when the oil is lower, the cost really goes down, but we have never seen any benefit coming to the company?
So I think the figures you stated was INR 3,868 crores versus INR 4,613 crores. And if you look at the -- other than the foreign exchange variation, in fact, this year, results, its number is better than last year. Because this year's number actually includes a loss of -- foreign exchange loss of INR 226 crore, while it was a gain of INR 747 crore during the last fiscal. So if we were -- one were to take out that, then the last year figure would have been INR 4,615 crore, while this year's figure, excluding the foreign exchange component is around INR 4,388 crores. So it is actually impacted -- is a noticeable reduction. And if you look at -- I mean, I have some view on individual elements also. Contractual payments have come down substantially. But to be fair, actually, a part of it is also because of the Ind AS 116, and other production expenditure is where it is. Transport of oil and gas has come down from around [ 4 63 to 3 95 ]. So each individual element has come down. Workover expenditure has come down. See, workover activity is a major issue of focus. So while we would like to have as many workover jobs as possible, but the workover cost is coming down because of the better rate, which we could realize, there is the last contracting cycle. So this would help you explain that actually while apparently, the figure is higher, it is all because of the foreign exchange variation.
Next, we have Somesh (sic) [ S. Ramesh ] from Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities.
Let me just correct the name. My name is S. Ramesh. I'm from Nirmal Bang. See, I just wanted to discuss a couple of things. One is, if you look at your dividend income, it has come down sharply, and [indiscernible] dividend income come down this year in the third quarter?
So dividend income has come down because, IOC has given lower dividend. And HPCL -- I mean, OVL had given dividend last year. So -- which was received in -- so let me go entity by entity, if you so like?
I think it's okay, sir, I understand. So basically, it will be shifting of dividend, that's fine. Secondly, if you're looking at timing...
And also, certain people are also taking a view on latest changes in this budget, where they want to declare dividend when DDT is not there. So I think the individual managements have their own view. Even if we would like them to pay as early as possible, they would like to defer it because that helps them save 20%.
Understood. Yes. So in OVL, if you see your share of profit equity has come down, and your production is coming down, but the revenue is going up. Can you just explain the only performance for this quarter compared to the third quarter last year?
So -- give me a minute, let me check out. So OVL production is holding, let's just say, almost the same level as previously.
Improved by 1.5...
Yes. There's a marginal improvement. And the -- yes.
But if you see the production numbers given in the slide, oil and gas, both are declining compared to the same period last year. Unless you are saying, there is some other element...
Which slide you're referring to?
No, no. It's okay.
OVL production performance slide?
Yes. I think the explanation lies in the fact that ONGC Videsh, when we look at the production of equity-accounted project and its own projects, then the production on a consolidated basis is actually higher than last year. The oil plus oil equivalent last year in 9 months FY '19 was 10.91, which is actually 11.35 in the 9 month FY '20. Okay?
And similar numbers for the third quarter?
So as of this moment, we have actually the 9-month figures, so we will have to derive it out.
But on an annual basis, they are not materially different, in fact, they are a shade higher
No. but see...
Yes, please.
And -- but if you see the increase in revenue, that's fairly substantial from [ 33.9 to 40.71 ]. So is there any other adjustment involved? Because you see the increase in production is not much?
No, no. See this -- as far as increase of production...
I think we'll give you the detailed explanation on this number.
Yes. Okay. And suddenly if you say that to look at your operating cost for ONGC and OVL, what is the kind of breakeven cost for your domestic operation? And what is the breakeven cost for OVL on a blended basis, if you take both oil and gas together? Hello?
Yes, yes. Just give us a minute. We want to give you the precise numbers, actually so that -- so if you take -- actually, as far as ONGC is concerned, if you take -- I mean, it's a function of price. If you take the all-inclusive cost, '18, '19 number has been 40.05. And it will be a shade higher than this fiscal. It won't be materially different. Production is a shade lower. And if we take out the exchange variation actually OpEx is more or less at the same level.
And this is before DD&A, right?
This is all-inclusive cost.
Including as a cash cost? Okay. And what will be for OVL?
No. If you want break up also, that I can give you. Operating cost is of the order of around USD 12.5 per barrel. Depletion works out to close to $9, and the statutory charges are around $18.5 to $19. So that is the breakup of $40.
That's very helpful. So can you give the similar numbers for OVL?
Yes. Similar numbers actually is around -- so $34, $35 for OVL. But actually, in case of OVL, it is very very -- it differs a lot across the different projects. But blended number is not materially different.
Okay. Blended number is $34,$35. Right, boss.
Next, we have Sabri Hazarika from Emkay Global Financial Services.
Sir, can you give us the status of KG 98/2. So currently, what kind of production is happening? And what is the ramp-up being planned over the next 6 to 12 months?
I'll request my colleague, Mr. Akhil Verma to take that, and I'll supplement.
We are expecting the first gas by 17th, 18th of this month.
Excuse me?
We are expecting the first gas around 18th of this month.
18th of this month?
Yes, yes. So within a couple of days, actually, we are expecting that gas will start.
And what would be the volumes for -- over the next 6 months, if we assume?
So actually, you see -- I mean, initially, we had one anticipation, which has not changed. But at the end of the day, actually, now, at this stage, we will wait for that actual flow to start from the wells and then validate the figure.
And we would also like that the flow stabilizes, and then comment what the volumes will be.
Next, we have [ Yeshwanth ], individual investor.
My name is [ Yeshwanth ]. So I mean, looking at the results, the production has -- just I want to discuss, the production has been going down. So I mean, with the expenses being higher, and the production is down, so how do we foresee in the coming quarters with the expected production?
So I think as far as production is concerned, yes, it is a little less than last year. And in fact, it is significantly -- the reduction is significantly lower than the general decline, which takes place in oil and gas industry. So with our efforts, it has been curtailed. Any major actually uptick will happen only when the new projects come on stream, and one of them is KG 98/2. And we are actually waiting for that to happen pretty soon. Now even on that, we don't want to kind of raise expectations, because it takes quite some time to stabilize the production. That's why my colleague told that we would rather wait for 6 months to confirm as to what kind of volumes we will expect. So that -- and if you really look at, we are pretty close to what we achieved last year for only 9-month period. So -- and even if this trend was to be taken, we would be, compared to the last year, around 3% or 4% lower than the last year. 3% or 4%, that's likely to be the range. Once KG 98/2 comes up see other projects are there, that's the stage when the uptick will happen. As far as the OpEx is concerned, I think a couple of things have happened, which you need to understand. It has not increased. In fact, in response to one of the previous questions, we told that it's the way their presentation happens, because it apparently looked like that other charges have increased, but it turned out that that was because of the foreign exchange variation, which, again, is not within our control, and it tends to revert. There is a general -- actually, depreciation in rupee, but whenever there is a little bit of volatility, it tends to stabilize. And as far as depreciation of rupee is concerned, while -- as such, I have no view. But on the company front, in fact, if rupee depreciates, then actually it adds to significantly more to the top line rather than the -- its impact on the cost. So if the rupee was to depreciate, that's positive for the company numbers. I don't say that's positive for everybody, so that comment should not be taken in that context. So for the cost, I can assure you are holding, they are not out of range only because of the way actually Ind 116 presentation has happened and because of the foreign exchange variation, a little bit of that comparability is lost.
Okay. And one more question that I have with respect to the stock price. So it has been on a downward spiral like, ever since like about 8 months. Since I've been a long-term investor. So I mean, any activities with respect to holding the share price up so that no major investors show their interest towards ONGC, which is an Indian company?
So there are 2 fronts actually on which actions can happen. One is at the management front. And management is definitely the key player in -- as far as the performance of the company is concerned. So from that perspective, we actually try to, notwithstanding the fact that it is common for oil companies to have reduced production, you can see that because of our efforts -- and notwithstanding the fact that we have no new production, we are still able to hold the decline at 2% to 3% or 4%, which is a significant achievement. In terms of communication also, we try and communicate with the shareholders and analyst investors. Now the other aspect, there are 2 other aspects, which I'll touch. If you really look at the way actually share performance is happening for all the oil and gas companies over the last 10 years and there are a few studies in -- which one can access to, they seem to be at a record low, that is one. Second part of it is -- and this is what we have gathered from analyst only or investors community, our feedback is that number of ETFs, and in close succession, is what has affected the share performance of all entities. Unfortunately, that decline is not necessarily restricted to ONGC script, that has covered most of the PSUs. And I'm sure BP is engaged and seized of the matter and in different conversations, they are -- they would take the measures, which they deem fit are necessary to arrest this decline. So that's what I can say on this front.
Next, we have [ Saket Kapoor from Kapoor Company ].
Sir, firstly, what has been the CapEx that we have done in oil development -- in the wells development for the 9 months? And what is the size of the CapEx we will be doing till March '20?
So actually, our ninth month projection is close to INR 32,000 crores -- INR 31,895 crores to be specific. And 9 months actual is INR 18,000 crores to INR 19,000 crores, so that's around the number. A little bit of comparability again is lost because of the fact -- the way IND AS affect that could be close to INR 1,000 crores. So you can say against around INR 32,000 crores, we have already done around 30 -- INR 20,000 crores or so.
So sir, this INR 10,000 crores, it will be spent over the coming 1 quarter only? Or will you spill it over to the next financial year?
Actually, see, there are a couple of things. We have a few major projects going on and one of them is KG 98/2, and there are milestone payments. So regular payments, it is unlikely we -- it is unlikely that we'll reach INR 30,000 crores. But if those milestone payments materialize, then it will be INR 30,000 crores. Otherwise, we are very close -- since we are very close to 31st March they could, in fact, also be realized only in April, so realization could be lower. Generally, we have tended over the last few years. Actually, our utilization has been of the order of around 92% to 93%. So we would be doing better than that this year.
Okay. And sir, if we take the granular details of the money spent out of INR 20,000 crores, where is the major CapEx goal towards the oil output?
So see this year, in terms of numbers, if you want, around INR 1,300 crores has gone for survey, which is 7%; exploratory drilling is around 23% at INR 4,300 crores; development drilling is INR 5,500 crores; capital is INR 7,000 crores, which is INR 37 crores (sic) [ 37% ]; and rest is on integration and R&D, which is 3% or so. So that's around the number.
Okay. And sir, if we take this rig and the pipes part in this pipe segment, how much does this contribute towards the CapEx? How much CapEx we have done, sir? We see that one of the listed companies announcing that ONGC comes up with orders of INR 500 crores in the seamless segment with contingent supply of seamless casting of $70 million and -- we're talking about Maharashtra Seamless, so what type of, sir, orders are there in the pipeline?
I don't have actually individual item level details with me.
Okay. Correct, sir. But I was just making sense of what this seamless casting contribute towards the CapEx part, how much -- what percentage, if you could give -- throw some light on that?
No, no. I have no idea, actually. I wish I knew something about drillings in detail, which I could -- which could be helpful to you.
And going forward also, what sort of CapEx that won't be -- you won't be able to highlight, sir, in this segment?
Could you repeat -- in this segment?
Yes, sir. I was talking about the seamless pipe and the ERW pipe segment.
I can give you a general perspective, which is that we are likely to continue to hold CapEx at around same level. And its composition is also unlikely to change materially. So I mean, see, the pipes are used. It may not be specifically help in understanding the specific individual supplier situation. But, for example, we are doing around 500 wells on an annual basis. We had done it -- done 511 wells last year. We have planned to do 515, and that's the number of wells we also intend to do next year. So if one were to assume the same party, similar is the situation of a particular party of which I have no idea. So then probably the level of consumables from the party could end up being same. I mean, I -- only take my first sort of answer as relevant, rest I don't understand or I don't really, I mean, have any idea as to how individual suppliers will be affected.
Correct, sir. And this Made (sic) [ Make ] in India theme, sir, that 25% of the customized has to be domestically sold, and the -- just -- and wanted to understand how has this benefited your supply?
I think right now let's restrict to accounts of this number...
Okay, sir. Coming to the debt -- on the debt level, sir, please give what is the net debt at the book -- on book as on 31st December?
See, there is -- during the year, that is not really of much significance. We -- because most of the first 2 quarters on, in general, we accumulate cash or payback most of the debt. And when it comes to third and fourth quarter, there are heavy payments for the reason that on 15th of December, you have to certainly pay a substantial tax. Because suddenly, the tax goes up to 75%. And then dividend, this time, we have not paid in second -- after second quarter accounts. And that's something, which will also be required to pay sometime during March or so, if at all. So it -- so usually, actually, second half of the year is very heavy in terms of cash outflow and first half is lighter. So consequently, we payback. So, well, the number should be in the range of around INR 10,000 crores as at 31st of December.
INR 10,000 crores. Sir we find the final cost at INR 4,400 crores for the 9 months? Sir, how will you explain?
So that is actually unwinding of commissioning, decommissioning. It's really -- actually, see, the way decommissioning has unwinded today. The way commissioning -- decommissioning liabilities projected and its effect on the presentation of accounts, a large part of it is to do with that and, basically, as far as the -- so I mean if one were to take individual elements, right, so interest on short-term loans has come down. The finance charges on commercial papers is, because we have used more of them during the last year, has gone up marginally. API loss and gain is another element here, which actually this year has gone up a bit. It is actually, largely, INR 1,954 crores consists of INR 1,130 crores of unwinding cost of decommissioning liability and another INR 161 crores of lease liabilities. So if you really take out, let's say, INR 1,291 crores rupees out of INR 1,954 crores, then what is left is only around INR 693 crores (sic) [ INR 663 crores ], which is the cost. Which, again, consists of INR 217 crores as API loss. So it is only around INR 4,000 crores -- INR 400 crores or so -- INR 400 crores-plus, close to INR 500 crores.
So you gave the figure at INR 10,000 crores, the net debt level, as on 31st December?
Yes, you can take that as guidance, it's plus/minus.
Okay. Sir for the investor presentation, sir, where are the same being uploaded. We have -- we're not able to receive this from your website also neither from the Bombay Stock Exchange website. The presentation was...
It is at reports -- it is at ongcindia.com under Investor note.
Okay. I didn't get it. I was there on the site. Sir, for the investor confidence part -- last point, and then I'll come into the queue. Sir, you told that the consequence of this ETFs are resulting in deterioration in valuation. And this is not common only for ONGC, but this entire PSU basket. So, sir...
No, no. I didn't say so. But I mean, let me -- good, that you said so. That gives me an opportunity to clarify. This is the feedback I am getting from some of the analysts. This is not what I said.
But they're right on what it is...
No, no. I'm not -- see, I am not going into right and wrong. I mean, frankly, speaking. I would like to clarify that.
Sir, I can understand the dichotomy on your part also. But sir, it is the investor base, and it is the investors that are in the dire state, not only with ONGC, but with all the Maharatnas and even the Miniratnas. So sir, DIPAM -- what we investors are looking for, DIPAM should look at a comprehensive setup in which the right value is accrued to all these PSU Gems that belong to the nation. So things should be worked out, sir, in such a way -- why would ONGC talk like ONGC was quoting at a 5 or 8x P/E, sir. When other multinationals are demanding, sir, higher P/E? So what comprehensive steps should be taken, sir? You should reach out to the investing community, the brokering community. Whatever feedback is needed, so that they should be a re-rating of not only ONGC, but other PSUs also, sir. This is very bad state of affairs, sir, for investors like us, who are only losing money, sir, investing in PSUs.
I think we can pass on some of your views. I mean, I don't comment either way. And also, I think...
Okay, sir. Is there another platform, where we can [indiscernible] I would also like to discern only, sir, but you please convey to the management, sir -- to the Board, to the Board, yes. Please convey to the Board.
Board is aware and seized of the matter. Board actually review the share price performance on a quarterly basis and they'll take requisite -- takes note of it, and also gives due instructions. I think what you said is a bit beyond us, but I think whenever we get an opportunity, we will consider it.
Even DIPAM should participate in con call, sir.
I think, we can go over to the next over.
Yes. I think we should give opportunity for the next question.
Next, we have Yogesh Patil from Reliance Securities.
Sir, based on APM gas price formula, it is expected that APM gas price is to fall below $3 per MMBtu. So can you please explain, will it make a direct losses at EBITDA level of the gas production segment as you have earlier mentioned that cost of gas production is more than $4 per MMBtu?
Yes. So I think, see, independent of the fact, whether we -- if the current price is lower or higher than the cost, fact of the matter is that if prices come lower, we will start losing compared to the current position. And your projection was a little benevolent. I believe that reduction is far sharper than that based on the formula. So we do believe, and we are quite concerned about the fact that we have to sell our molecules at lower price, while there is also a simultaneous realty that LNG is also selling at historic lows. Yet, if there is a pricing freedom, for which we are actually talking at different levels. If that comes through, then you don't grudge. If international prices fall, you also suffer because that's the way industry survives or sustain. And if there is upside in the international market, you get to benefit from that. So we would have no grudge under those circumstances and, I mean, from the same sources from which you also read, we think that the government is seized of the matter, and there have been discussions at different levels. One way, of course, there was expectation of this being included in GST also, that was one expectation, that would have given some relief. So we do anticipate that government is equally concerned because government has an objective to drive India towards the gas-price-based economy. So if that were to happen then, obviously, then some sort of pricing reform has to come.
So are you expecting any kind of a traction? Or is there anything happening on the ministry level? Did they communicated anything to you?
No, we have been expecting, but we have been expecting for a bit too long, actually. So it's not that they are responsive to that, but I think if prices go below a level, it's again only an expectation, then the regulators and the ministry will come forth to protect the industry also. That's only expectation, there is no communication or assurance or anything.
Sir, my second question is that if APM gas prices remains at a lower level, then will it impact on your upcoming CapEx in a gas field?
I think it is a consequence, actually. The investment decisions, new -- see, some of the investment decisions were taken at a point in time when prices were at a higher level, and probably expectation was also that they will be still higher. So one would have, let's say, done a deal anticipating some sort of even increase. Now if actual prices come down even compared to existing level, which itself is very onerous and significantly lower than what we would have anticipated then, obviously, some of the projects would get affected.
Okay, okay. And sir, last question. As you mentioned earlier, KG 98 field is going to start production of gas in next few days. So can you give us, at what price you are marketing this gas? And which sectors are consuming of the gas from CGD, sir?
I would not have that details with me at this moment.
Next, we have Akash Mehta from Morgan Stanley.
This is Mayank from Morgan Stanley. Just a related question to the previous question. Obviously, LNG prices have seen a lot of pressure. How are you kind of thinking about your long-term view on returns for your gas fields, especially the deepwater ones? And even on Mozambique, et cetera, where you have invested, how are you kind of thinking about returns on these assets now?
So I think, talking about domestic, definitely -- I mean, something which was, let's say, making economic sense at $3.40, $3.50 or $3.20 will cease to make sense at $2.70, $2.60, $2.50. So -- and which actually means that, while we may not shelve the plants for all times to come, but those projects will get pushed back until and unless the management has a visibility that price realization will improve. So it's very difficult to give a time frame. I think as far as the LNG outlook is also concerned, you would know it's better. I think it is warmer-than-expected winter, which has been the first driver. And suddenly, this coronavirus has brought that to record lows, notwithstanding the fact that, in the last year, actually, the prices have never been at very high levels as far as LNG is concerned. So that way, at the end of the day, see whatever we -- our position or any other gas producer's position in the country, nobody can expect to realize their price, which is higher than even these substitute fuels and one of them will be this LNG. So I think, at that stage, if one were to form a view that these are the new normal prices, that the $5 or $6 of LNG per MMBtu, then probably, investment decision will also start getting happening at that level. And some of the decisions, which would have -- would be making good at a higher level projections, those will cease to be uneconomic -- cease to be economic. As far as, actually, Mozambique is concerned, now I think, see, you have to look at a value-chain perspective, and there are a number of players involved in the whole thing. So states of so many people is involved in this, and I'm sure they will take a decision, which works the best for the consortium at that level. While this is one of the best gas reserves in the world, in a very compatible kind of environment, yet, the consortium has gone ahead and they have taken a view, they have taken FID. Funding is in place. And they will take the right decision in the interest -- overall interest of the project.
Okay. So Mozambique, sir, should be, considering the FID is done, it should be pretty much on time? There is no real push here to kind of delay some CapEx?
Yes. And I think while all of us are stuck with something, which is called -- which I think is supremacy of immediacy. Yet, at the end of the day, nobody can say for certain that LNG is going to stay at sub-2 -- sub-$3 forever. I mean, it's unlikely to be that scenario. If $17, $18 did not stay, then $3 is also unlikely to stay for long. So -- and investment decision of the kind, which Mozambique has taken are from long-term perspective. So I don't think they -- either it is reversible or they can -- they have -- they would have any appetite to reverse it midway. And in any case, as you would know, they have already tied-up commitments for the substantial quantity on a long-term basis, which is -- which could be built on different formulas, but also linked to the oil to a very large extent.
Got it. Okay. So that helps, sir. And just a -- second question I had was more related to the operating cost. You highlighted that you are seeing deflation in your operating cost because of the last round in terms of the contracting terms. When do you see your next contracting terms coming through? And do you see a possible further reduction in your overall operating cost, especially on workover and rigs, et cetera?
So normally, our long-term contracts are for 3- or 5-year horizon. And somehow quite a few of them came up for review during 2019. So early to mid and late, so that is how we have got the benefit. Some of this benefit was obtained last year and we continue to get benefit of that. So if you really take, some of the contracts are for 3 years and 5 years, so we would go into probably the next cycle in a major way around '22 or '24-or-so. That's the time frame. And as you know, services cost or input cost is quite a bit related to the oil prices, if that were to continue to be a scenario or a relationship, but to stay valid in that time frame also, then depending on the prices prevalent at that point in time, we would get affected in terms of OpEx.
Okay. And sir, does the full impact of renegotiations you did in 2019 already reflected on your OpEx in the past couple of quarters? Or you think there could be some more that could come through?
No, no. I think that impact is more or less available.
Sir, would you like to continue with the next question?
Yes, maybe the last one -- or last 2.
We have the [ Dharmesh ] from [ BPIN Investments ].
Sir, I have seen in the depreciation line, there is an increase of about 33% over last year. So is there any particular reason any impairment has happened in investments? Or in any particular product?
Yes, yes. So I think this, again, ties into the -- this IND AS impact. And if you really look at the way I covered it, the 5 -- so the impact of -- because of the ROU -- just let me look at the figure and I'll give you. So that is INR 1,502 crores. Out of the figure for 9 months period, actually, INR 1,502 crores is on account of the IND AS 116. Okay. And for the quarter alone, it is actually INR 518 crores.
Sir, you last quarter, it was INR 3,451 crores. And now, this quarter, it is INR 5,358 crores, so a jump of about INR 3,000 crores (sic) [ INR 2,000 crores ]?
Yes. Yes, yes. So there is an increase in actually depletion also. So one is depreciation. Depreciation is what I explained, and depletion has increased by INR 1,366 crores.
That is for which...
So that is because of the PRMS -- in the wake of implementation of PRMS. So because of the fact that now we have migrated to PRMS, and we used to have -- classify our reserves based on the SPE-classification of 2007, and we have moved to the latest one. Actually, some of the oil and gas, which is discovered moves from reserves to resources category depending on the status of the plan or investment, which we are intending to make. So things move, reserve -- this oil in place or oil resources move to reserves only when plan is there. Earlier it used to be just a matter of certainty of recovery. So the system of classification has changed and, consequently, the reserve base has come down, which actually has affected the depletion.
So do you think the outcome of this will be continue going forward for a couple of quarters? Or -- I mean, the overall depreciation will be in beginning or it'll be less?
Okay. So another -- actually another element which we are now finding, which is very volatile, which actually is affecting the depletion, actually, is also the way decommissioning liabilities are factored into our calculations. So what has happened if you really have seen that inflation has suddenly gone up from around 3.99% to 7.35%. And what actually that means that the decommissioning liabilities go up substantially compared to the level of the previous year. So the moment depletion -- decommissioning liabilities go up, consequently, the depletion portion on the decommissioning liability also goes up. Now this is more or less the accounting treatment. It is not that we are going to spend this amount on a next-day basis. But depending on the inflation, and I think we are working internally to have a more long-term projection on inflation rather than the immediate month and we would possibly be working on that. And maybe after discussions with auditors and Audit Committee, we could rather take a relatively long-term view on inflation and interest rate to be used for the purpose of defining the extent of decommissioning liability, et cetera, required or wherever NPV -- escalation and NPV is involved, because immediate last quarter movement actually tend to vitiate the picture totally, which we have noticed during this period, because interest rate has gone almost by -- gone up by 100% or so -- sorry, inflation
Right. Right. So I mean -- correct. Because this has affected your profit by around 30% to 40% as well, overall. So that's the reason we wanted to know the trend will continue or will there be a change in overall...
No, no, no. It is unlikely to continue. I mean, the inflation has gone up from 3.99% to 7.35%, I don't think this trend itself is likely to continue. So if this were not to continue and if it were to reverse, actually, you will see a much lower figure, possibly in a quarter when it is a lower trend. So that's what I referred. Actually, we are looking at mechanism and get internal approvals to smoothen it for a longer period rather than to use it for the immediate previous quarter, because this we realized has distorted the figure for immediate preceding quarter in a big way. So that's what -- but that we can do only after internal discussions and views of taking go-ahead from our Audit Committee.
So in Mozambique you are partner with Oil India. You are all together in the same exploration rights?
So we are partners with Oil India.
In Mozambique?
Yes, yes.
So they have taken -- in the financials, they have mentioned in the last year that they've -- although they've invested around INR 7,000 crores, their investment actual value is around INR 1,600 crores or something. So they have taken down so much value in actual terms. So do you feel also the same way, so much depreciation has happened in your investment -- impairment has happened in your investment over there?
Actually, see, the OVL accounts are considered in OVL Board, I will not comment on that. But we are not aware of any such view. And OVL Board, also to the extent I am aware, actually keeps on looking at its investment on a quarterly basis. And during that they have not taken a similar view. So from their perspective, it is a very viable project and there is no need for any value reduction.
Sir, my last question is, are we expecting any dividend or any buyback for this financial year?
I don't think -- I mean, you have seen our accounts, there is no dividend as on date. And -- I mean, at around 7:00 today, there is no buyback.
I think on buyback front, there is no -- I can say, there is no requirement of any kind.
No guidance is available to you for either dividend or the spend. All right, sir.
Thanks for your questions. I would like to now hand over the proceedings back to Mr. Subhash Kumar, for the final remarks. Over to you, sir.
Thanks, ma'am. And I think that was really nice to interact with all of you. Thanks on behalf of ONGC to each and everyone, who stayed with us long enough to have this conversation. And since there was an issue relating to share price, let me assure you that our team and myself, we are available for discussions on anything relating to ONGC per se. My availability, I can say, with such a notice, I usually try to become available. And as far as team is concerned, team will interact with everybody. So from that perspective, if there is any question, any issue, any suggestions, please contact our team, and I will also be available. And if so required, we can have our Chairman also, entire team, if you want to, some point in time, want to discuss our Corporate Planning and Strategy team, ONGC Videsh, so all of us are available. So from that perspective, I really want to commit again that we would be available, should you want -- be wanting to interact. May not be specific individual, but team will be available. And once again, thanks to everybody. And thank you, Madam, specifically for having organized all this.
Thank you so much, sir. My pleasure. That does conclude our conference call for today. You may all disconnect now. Thank you so much for joining the call.