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Earnings Call Analysis
Q2-2024 Analysis
Oil India Ltd
The company has shown resilience in its production metrics, achieving a 5.7% increase in crude oil production in the recent quarter. This uptick in operations resulted in a cumulative 5.48% increase for the half-year. Although natural gas production saw a modest growth of 2.45%, the company still managed an 8.72% production increase from Q1 to Q2 of FY '24, demonstrating a solid effort to boost output across their offerings.
Despite facing a decline in average crude oil price realization by 13.65% for Q2 '23-'24 and by 22.82% for the first half of the year, the company’s financial integrity remained steady, partly due to the EBITDA margin increase to 48.29% for Q2 and to 50.52% for the half-year period, compared to the previous year's figures. However, the impact of reduced price realizations and a significant provision for disputed service tax and GST of INR 2,656 crores imposed a substantial burden, reducing profit after tax to INR 325 crores for Q2 FY '24 from INR 1,721 crores in Q2 FY '23.
The challenging environment also brought down the earnings per share to INR 17.88 for the half-year ended 30th September '23. This denotes tightened profitability, yet it's essential to consider the broader context of sectoral and economic challenges impacting these figures.
Numaligarh Refinery Limited, a subsidiary, has delivered a steady performance with a profit after tax of INR 736 crores in Q2 FY '24, compared to INR 728 crores during the same period last year, indicating resilience in certain business segments despite the prevailing tough market conditions.
On the guidance front, the production target of 3.8 million tonnes of crude oil appears ambitious in light of current performance trends. Nonetheless, the company's adjusted aim to reach between 3.5 to 3.6 million tonnes is a testament to their optimistic yet realistic planning, adapting to unforeseen market changes while striving to maintain growth trajectories.
The company outlined a sizable CapEx plan totaling about INR 13,000 crores for Oil and NRL collectively, signaling a commitment to long-term investments and, presumably, an expectation of future growth and profitability. This aligns with the company's strategy to strengthen its core operations while paving the path for future expansion.
Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to Oil India Limited Q2 FY '21 Earnings Conference Call hosted by Antique Stockbroking. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Varatharajan Sivasankaran from Antique Stockbroking. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thanks, Rohit. A very good morning, everyone. It's my pleasure to welcome all the participants and the management of Oil India to this conference call. We have with us Shri Harish Madhav, Director of Finance; Pankaj Kumar Goswami, Director Operations; Dr. Manas Kumar Sharma, Director E&D; and Shri Sachidananda Maharana, CGM Corporate Finance.
I'll hand over the floor to Shri Harish Madhav for the initial comments to be followed by Q&A.
Good morning, and I'm Harish Madhav, Director of Finance in Oil India. We were expecting our Director of Exploration also to be presented today, but because of some meeting in the ministry, he has to rush there. So anyway, thank you all the participants. Thank you, Antique, for arranging this call. I thank and welcome all the participants to the call. The results have already been shared with everyone yesterday, and I hope it is given for -- the results are sufficient. But in any case, in case some queries and some clarifications are needed, we are open for discussion. So with this, I'll request my colleague, CGM of Finance, Mr. Maharana to give his feedback at the start, give his opening remarks -- opening feedback on the results. And then we can go with the question and answers.
Good morning, dear friends. At the outset, I would like to thank -- Antique Stockbroking Limited for organizing today's analyst call. I am Sachidananda Maharana, CGM Finance and Accounts, Corporate Finance of the company. The company's financial results of Q2 FY '24 were published on 8th November '23. I'll briefly give some indications about the performance of the company in both physical and financial terms.
Now coming to the stand-alone results and beginning with the production front, the company has continued to improve its crude oil production, which is higher by 5.7% in quarter ended 30th September '23 at 0.835 MMT vis-a-vis 0.790 MMT in the quarter ended 30th September '22. Crude oil production for the half year ended 30th September '23 had also increased by 5.48% to 1.655 MMT vis-a-vis 1.569 MMT for the half year ended 30th September, '22. Natural gas production for the half year ended 30th September '23 is grew by 2.45% at 1,555 MMSCM vis-a-vis 1,594 MMSCM for the half year ended 30th September '22.
However, the production during Q2 FY '24 has increased by 8.72% over Q1 FY '24. On the financial side, average crude oil price realizations for Q2 '23-'24 is USD 86.86 per barrel vis-a-vis USD 100.59 per barrel for Q2 '22-'23, decreased -- this is decreased by 13.65%. Crude oil price realization for the half year ended 30th September '23 is $82.22 per barrel vis-a-vis $106.53 per barrel for the half year ended 30th September '22, decreased by 22.82%.
However, the price realization net of special additional excise duties has remained around USD 75 per barrel. Average natural gas price for the half year ended 30th September '23 is USD 6.5 per MMBTU vis-a-vis USD 6.10 per MMBTU for the half year ended 30th September '22. The turnover for the half year ended 30th September '23 has decreased by 10% to INR 10,558 crores compared to INR 11,737 crores in the half year ended 30th September '22, which is mainly due to lower crude price of USD 82.22 per barrel in the half year ended 30th September '23 vis-a-vis USD 106.53 per barrel in the half year ended 30th September '22. The EBITDA margin for the Q2 FY '24 has increased to 48.29% vis-a-vis 41.12% in the previous comparative period. And EBITDA margin for the half year ended 30th September '23 has increased to 50.52% vis-a-vis 42.85% in the half year ended 30th September '22. The company has taken provision towards disputed service tax and GST on priority, including interest amounting to INR 2,656 crores during the Q2 and half year ended 30th September 2023, on the ground of prudence and conservative principle, resulting in a reduction of profit after tax for Q2 FY '24 to INR 325 crores from INR 1,721 crores in Q2 FY '23. Profit after tax for the half year ended 30th September '23, decreased to INR 1,939 crores vis-a-vis INR 3,236 crores for the corresponding period previous year.
The earnings per share for the half year ended 30th September '23 is INR 17.88 per share. Now coming to financial performance of Numaligarh Refinery Limited. Profit after tax of Numaligarh Refinery Limited during Q2 FY '24 is INR 736 crores vis-a-vis INR 728 crores during Q2 FY '23. And profit after tax for the half year ended 30th September '23 is INR 658 crores compared to INR 2,134 crore for the corresponding period last year.
NRL's gross refining margin during Q2 FY '24 is $16.04 per barrel vis-a-vis $13.84 per barrel during Q2 FY '23. Gross refining margin for the half year ended 30th September '23 is $13.49 per barrel vis-a-vis $23.04 per barrel for the half year ended 30th September '22.
NRL's EBITDA for the Q2 FY '24 is INR 1,085 crores vis-a-vis INR 1,070 crores for the Q2 FY '23, while EBITDA for the half year ended 30th September '23 is INR 1,079 crores via INR 3,058 crores for the half year ended 30th September '22.
Coming to consolidated results. Oil group turnover for the half year ended 30th September '23 was lower at INR 15,225 crores vis-a-vis INR 21,684 crores for the half year ended 30th September '22. And the group profit after tax for the half year ended 30th September '23 is lower at INR 2,039 crores vis-a-vis INR 5,346 crores for the half year ended 30th September '22, which is mainly due to lower crude oil price realization, turnaround maintenance of NRL and provision made towards service tax and GST on royalty amounting to INR 2,656 crores. Board of Oil has declared an interim dividend of INR 3.50 per share of [indiscernible] [ INR 0.10 ]. With this, my opening remarks on the [indiscernible] is over, and now we are open to Q&A. Thank you.
[Operator Instructions] The first question is from the line of Probal Sen from ICICI Securities.
Congratulations on a strong set of numbers. Just wanted to understand this whole royalty issue. Now obviously, this case has been going on for long and we have finally taken the contingent liability into the books. Now this quarter's provision of around INR 290 crores has also been made in addition to the past provision. So is it -- is this additional royalty something that we should now be building in for every quarter going forward until the case is resolved or settled in, in either direction?
Yes. We'll continue to take that provision going forward. Already -- for the current year, INR 293 crores, as you rightly said, has already been provided for, that is, of course, including interest. And going forward, we'll be continuing quarter-on-quarter.
So on an annualized basis, sir, what will be the amount we should be sort of roughly building in? Around INR 500 crores? Or this is for the half year, this is only for this quarter, the INR 290 crores?
INR 293 crores is for the half year number. So I think we consider maybe double of that, maybe INR 500 crores -- it depends on the crude oil movement also, price movement.
Sure, sir. Understood. But roughly the constant rate, which should be roughly what we should work with, correct?
Yes, yes.
The second question was, sir, just wanted to understand what's the reason for the strong Other Income that has come through in this quarter? Is it NRL dividend [indiscernible]?
Basically, this is coming from the dividend income from the -- our shareholding in NRL, Indian Oil Corporation. And NRL has given us an interim dividend, not interim dividend, the final dividend of last year, which was declared, that was accounted for current year after the AGM. Same thing for the Indian Oil Corporation. We got about INR 220 crores dividend from Indian Oil. And another about INR 400-plus crores dividend from our Singapore subsidiary, which is holding the Russian investments in Vankorneft. That is the reason for the other income growth.
Just to -- sorry, just to recap, sure, around INR 220 crores came through from IOCL, around INR 400 crores is our Russian subsidiary income and balance about INR 80 crores, INR 100 crores is the NRL dividend. Correct, sir?
Not INR 1,800 cores.
INR 80-odd crores; INR 80 crores to around INR 100-odd crores, sir.
NRL stood at about INR 160 crores, IOCL is about INR 220 crores and INR 400 crores from the overseas subsidiary -- in the half of the -- first half, I'm talking about.
Understood, sir. Understood. One last question, if I may, sir. If you can just refresh the guidance of production for FY '24 and FY '25 and the CapEx for the next couple of years, sir.
Production, we have normally a target of 3.8 million tonnes of crude oil and almost similar volume of natural gas this year. But Certainly, looking at the current numbers, 3.8 million tonnes may not be feasible, but we are certainly trying to reach at least 3.5 million tonnes, 3.6 million tonnes of crude oil by the end of the year. And natural gas production, its shutdown in the first quarter because of the customer uptake issues, BVFCL, Numaligarh, BPCL, they were all other shutdowns in the first quarter. Natural gas production and sale has really suffered. We have picked up actually crude about 8%, 8.5% growth we have already done in the second quarter. Natural gas, maybe some 3%, 4% -- 2%, 3% growth over last year. But crude certainly is about 3.5, 3.6 MMT we are targeting.
Understood, sir. And CapEx, sir, for the next couple of years?
CapEx, the reported number is about INR 13,000 crores for both Oil and NRL put together, about INR 4,900 crores is for Oil India and about INR 8,700 crores is for NRL.
The next question is from the line of Sabri Hazarika from Emkay Global.
So I have a few questions. First one is relating to the windfall tax. So what we've seen is that in the last -- some of the quarters, whatever rate the government basically gives the book rate, which comes dividing your number with the crude production is generally lower. So we had that -- I had this question to ONGC also, they said that some inventory-related adjustments could have happened. So we were like assuming that. But this quarter, I think the rate basically was higher. So is there any accounting related adjustment or anything you want to say on this?
See, accounting-related adjustment, inventory amount certainly will happen, but the windfall tax, whatever is, is levied by the government, it is based on the proprietary rates. Normally, that is levied on the proprietary basis. And as far as maybe accounting part, may be different, some corrections and adjustments here and there. But on an average, if you see the rates declared and on a proprietary basis, last year after September and current year after September. The net realization to Oil India has been around $75, $76 per barrel. That's how the adjustment is happening. But accounting, yes, there may be some corrections from adjustment on account of inventory.
Right, sir. Secondly, on this premium -- gas pricing premium from APM fields. So any update on that, the DGH committee was supposed to look into it?
There's no update as of now, and we are still expecting that some guidelines to be issued.
Okay. So fair enough. And thirdly, on the NRL front, I think this rights issue basically covers the entire equity infusion? Or do you think some more instruments will come down the line?
As of now, it covers the entire equity infusion for the refinery expansion project, what is envisaged. And the only thing is that -- in the first call was paid 25%. And as and when the money is required, that also be given by NRL. But I think the rights issue, for the full 100% of the capital commitment has been issued, given.
Okay, sir. And sir, just 1 small question. Your interim dividend, was there any impact of this whole GST thing there? Or it could have been higher if that thing would not have been accounted? Is that the right assessment?
I think it's a question beyond presumption and assessment. We have not accounted for INR 2,600 crores, possibly, we would have gained a higher dividend, no doubt about it. But as we see that for the future of the company also looking into the huge liabilities. We see this a very fair decision on our part to provide [indiscernible].
Right. But the minimum 30% payout debt prevails, right?
Yes, [indiscernible] certainly try to apply it.
The next question is from the line of Kirtan Mehta from BOB Capital Markets.
In terms of the NRL, have we seen any increase in the particularly when we look at the GRM, this has increased by $2.2 per barrel Y-o-Y, but the EBITDA was lower by $0.6 per barrel Y-o-Y. So is there any particular increase in the OpEx that has come through during this quarter?
Apparently, there should not be any previous increase in the operating expenses -- we will let you know about this. But apparently, there should not be any significant increase in the OpEx part of NRL.
Yes. Right now, it's implying something like a $3 increase Y-o-Y. So that appears a bit on the higher side.
$3 increase is impossible. I think there is some issue, something may be understanding issue. We will clarify that. $3 is impossible growth in OpEx. Not possible.
In terms of -- you mentioned that we have got a 400 million -- INR 400 crore dividend from the Singapore subsidiary. So is our Russian dividend which was stuck that has been released now? .
No, actually, Oil India International Pte Ltd, 100% wholly-owned subsidiary that is in Singapore. They already have a [ fundraiser ], which are the dividend received from the Russian entity prior to the borrowing. So from those funds, that dividend [indiscernible].
Okay. And what would be the quantum of dividend, which is currently stuck basically the typical share that we are assuming. So at this point of time, what would be the...
So our share of -- or as you were talking about the ruble funds, the Russian share -- it is about [ 150 million ] equivalent dollar price.
Fine, sir. And in terms of the Baghjan, we have sort of a committee has the notes talked about, sort of the committee has sort of submitted the report. So could you also explain us through are we expecting additional provisions around Baghjan?
We are not expecting any additional provisions around Baghjan. The committee report which has been submitted to NGT. We have gone through that report. And the first -- this is, of course, the first report. And in that report -- typically nothing has been earmarked for Oil India to be done. Guidance and instructions are to the Pollution Control Board and the government agencies to work out a plan, et cetera. But Oil India has not been asked to do anything or to commit any expenditure as of now.
The next question is from the line of Abhishek Nigam from Motilal Oswal.
Sir, first question, just on the exceptional item. So I understand that contingent liability is there for a while. Has something changed in the last 2, 3 months that you've taken this now? That was my first question.
So actually, what has happened, as you've have rightly pointed out, there has been a little number of -- some amount of change has been there between the contingent liability that was earlier reported in the amount which has been held up to the profit and loss amount in terms of exceptional items this time. This is basically our to accounting for the interest on the amount that has not been deposited by us in the state of Assam and Arunachal Pradesh in view of the high court stay order. So that has also been accounted for along with the liability [indiscernible] that is reported [indiscernible].
[indiscernible] not the number.
Your voice is not very clear.
I think you are looking for the reasoning for taking profit instead of contingent liability or you're looking for a specific number.
I'm just wondering why have you taken it now? Has something changed in the last 2 months?
Yes. See, we were expecting a hearing on merits from the Guwahati High Court. There is largest chunk of this disputed amount is pending. But somehow that merit hearing didn't take place. It has further been deferred, and we don't know when it will happen. And looking into the amount of liability, we just indicated earlier, about INR 450 crores, INR 500 crores annually depending, of course, on the crude price movement. So that was sort of -- that we should provide for this money rather than simply accumulating [indiscernible].
Fair enough. And sir, you've provided revised FY '24 numbers on production. Can you give us a sense of FY '25 as well for Oil India?
It will be difficult to say anything, but looking into our performance, certainly, we will be growing in the volume. Maybe you can expect a 4%, 5% growth over the current year. But current year, if I say, 3.5%, 3.6%. Over and above that, having 4% growth itself will be close to 3.8 million tonnes, 4 million tonnes -- but I can't commit to any such volumes as of today.
Okay. Okay. Fair enough. I understand. And just the last question. On the GST on royalty, is it possible to give us the rate at was the GST applies. Is it 10%, 15%, so then we can make our own estimates.
It is 18%, sir.
18%, okay.
[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of [ Keval Doshi ] from [indiscernible].
I would want to understand the status on new oilfield discoveries in India and also on the sites of the project at Mozambique?
Can to repeat the question, please? It was not clear to us.
Yes. So I wanted to know the status on new oil discoveries within India as well as outside India, especially on what's happening on the Mozambique project?
See, Mozambique project and outside India, let me first correct, there is no oil discovery as of now because all these projects as already discovered and under development or under production, like Russia is under production. Mozambique is already discovered. It is under development. So outside India, there are no fresh discoveries, no fresh acquisition also by Oil India. Domestic part also, 1st April to September, we have not made any discovery as of now, but exploration activities are on. So certainly, there will be some discovery. It is anybody's guess, but there still we hope that there will be some discovery, we add something to our business. Our reserve replacement ratio, certainly, we targeted also to keep it on a positive side. It's more than 1. So certainly, that we will be achieving. As of now, no fresh discovery has happened.
Okay. And is the work on the Andaman and Nicobar blocks yielding positive outcomes?
It's too premature to say anything about the Andaman because only the [ GSG ] studies, [ GSP ] studies have been done. Based on those studies, we will be drawing our exploration drilling program, and drilling can happen only early mid of next financial year, somewhere in -- after June, July '25 -- '24, sorry.
June, July '24.
We expect to start in exploration drilling in Andaman.
The next question is from the line of [ Hardik ].
Yes. Can you just share the exploratory write-off being provided for the quarter? And the second question is what would be our gross -- NRM, GRM, including excise duties.
Including excise duty numbers are not available with us. Otherwise, the core GRM, which is the main indicator of [indiscernible] performance, that has already been indicated by our colleague. I think it was $13 for the first half. $13.4 for the period 30th September.
What was the exploration write-off provided for the quarter?
Write off actually, this time -- this quarter, we have not taken any write-off. That's probably only about INR 2 crores, INR 3 crores provision has been taken in this quarter.
[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Somaiah from Spark Capital.
Sir, first question is on the consolidate. Can you give a breakup between upstream and NRL debt apart from the stand-alone?
Our Oil India's borrowing total, stand-alone borrowing is about INR 11,000 crores. And our subsidiary in Singapore, it is another INR 4,000 crores, basically $500 million. And in dollar terms, the domestic borrowing of Oil India is about -- it is INR 11,000 crores for the Oil India stand-alone domestic -- sorry, nondomestic it's all overseas borrowings. And our overseas subsidiary in Singapore has another INR 4,000 crores worth of borrowing. And Numaligarh also, is, I think, about INR 3,000 crores to INR 4,000 crores. INR 5,600 crores. The total consolidated debt is about INR 20,000 crores.
Okay. Got it. Sir, in terms of the Numaligarh expansion CapEx, so what would be the quantum of the spend so far? And how would we -- over the next 2 years, how will we kind of spend the remaining amounts?
The total capital commitments for Numaligarh is about INR 28,000 crores. Out of which actual expenditure until till today is about -- actual is 12,000 -- about INR 13,000 crores, you can say. Actual expenditure until September is about INR 13,000 crores.
Got it, sir. And this -- the remaining amount that needs to be spent would be completed by -- most of it would be completed by FY '25?
By FY '25, yes.
Got it, sir. And what would be a normal mode maintenance CapEx for NRL keeping aside the expansion project?
Not very much. Maintenance CapEx maybe a few hundred crores only, nothing much.
Got it, sir. And in the upstream -- I mean, the E&P operations -- domestic E&P operations still we can continue to think about INR 4,500 crores to INR 5,000 crores of run rate CapEx for the next 1 or 2 years?
Yes. approximately that level.
Got it, sir. Sir, also on the international assets, any update that you can give in terms of the operational performance -- the Russian assets? And also any equity contribution further required in any of these assets?
What was the second part? Any additional -- what you asked for?
Any additional contributions that we need to make in any of these assets?
For Russian assets, no additional contribution is expected from our side. And as far as the operating performance of those are -- both are performing in line with the estimates at the time of their acquisition. So there is no adverse implication. In fact, our assets have performed better. They are expected to produce peak production of about 5 million tonnes per annum, they are producing more than that.
Got it, sir. Any color in the last 6 months in terms of what would be our share of earnings on these assets? I was just trying to understand what is the run rate cash flow from these for us.
We can only tell about the dividends which have been declared during the current period. Otherwise, expected cash flow and all, it depends -- in Russia, we all know there are issues, pricing related issues. So projecting the cash flow will be difficult. Only thing the dividend numbers, if you wish, we can share with you, what dividend has been declared and paid to us.
Got it, sir. And also these assets, generally, the oil pricing for these assets are below the benchmark. Is that the right understanding, sir? The Russian assets are fetching lower realizations compared to the international benchmarks. So the dividend at whatever we have received have been on a relatively lower oil price. So is that understanding right?
That's true. There is a cap on sale of crude from Russia. So net base realization will be lower. And based on the earnings, these companies will be declaring the dividend.
Got it, sir. And from Mozambique standpoint, any equity that we need to further infuse in the next 1 or 2 years, any requirement?
Board approved number was $1.8 billion, out of which we have already invested around $1.4 billion. And at the project level, already the operator is in the process of starting the activities. And once this force measure is lifted, we will be able to get the funding from the [ ECLs ] there. So once the funding starts, most likely, the equity contribution from the partners will be reduced.
The next question is from the line of Vikash Jain from CLSA.
Firstly, sorry, if you could tell me the seismic cost for this particular quarter, since that's something that I...
Yes. seismic costs for this quarter is around INR 110 crores.
INR 110 crores, is it?
Yes.
And the previous quarter and the Y-o-Y comparison.?
Previous quarter was around INR 150 crores.
And last year?
Last year it was, previous quarter last year, corresponding quarter was -- almost INR 105 crores.
Okay. Understood. Just 1 more. So what has happened in the interest costs that have gone up this particular quarter? Is it the accounting for this interest on the GST, that royalty thing. Has that been accounted in interest cost, and that's the reason why is a 35% Q-o-Q jump in interest? Is that what is causing it?
The interest costs -- finance cost?
Finance cost, that's right. Interest as in the finance cost from INR 166 crores, it's gone to INR 224 crores. What has happened over there? Is it -- Is it GST thing only? Or is there something else?
No. One is that -- one is that there were some [indiscernible] accounted for India first quarter accounts on account for finance cost [indiscernible]. So that is the reason in first quarter, the finance cost was lower compared to the second quarter.
Okay. And what is the exchange variation included in interest in this particular quarter?
Yes, yes.
No, what is that amount, the ForEx variation included in interest in this quarter?
It is about INR 38 crores.
INR 38 crores.
Yes.
Okay. But still, it's a reasonable jump on Q-o-Q...
Yes. Yes.
So is this going to be the kind of run rate that we look at about over INR 200 crores type every quarter from here on?
No. As you know that one of the reasons for interest [indiscernible] is increase in the benchmark rate.
Yes, of course. No, I'm saying that if the benchmark stayed where it is, a INR 200 crore kind of a quarterly number is something that we should be looking at?
Yes.
Okay. And Other Income on a Q-o-Q basis has declined by 35%. Is it that last year the NRL dividend was much higher? Is that the main reason? Or is it something else?
Yes. Actually, last year corresponding quarter, NRL dividend was much, much higher as compared to the dividend that we have received this quarter because there is a gap of about INR 400 crores in the dividend received from last -- but that has not compensated to most extent, by the dividend that we have realized from our Singapore subsidiary, which is about -- roughly about INR 200 crores we have realized this quarter.
Okay. Okay. Okay. But even after taking all of this into account, so the EPS for first half is closer to '18 EPS, but the dividend is only about INR 3. Is it that maybe we typically are second half heavy in our dividend payments? Is that how we should think about it?
No. Actually, if you see the first interim dividend that we did last year was around INR 4.50 per share. And -- the first interim dividend this year is INR 3.5, and that is after taking this provision of INR 2,600 crores. So that way, as already our [ director ] has told that we will try to comply with DIPAM guidelines, which is 30% of PAT or 5% of net worth, whichever is higher. So overall, we can see afterwards.
So Vikash, I'll also add, last year first half, our EPS was around INR 34.
Understood. Understood. I saw that. Yes, I realize it. So basically, the second interim is typically much higher you -- so that's something which we should be looking at?
About 50%.
The next question is from the line of Mr. Varatharajan Sivasankaran from Antique Stockbroking.
So, on the production guidance, we seem to [indiscernible] down on a little bit. Any specific issue which you want to highlight? Why this would be so?
No, there is no specific -- production, we are expecting that crude production should be around 3.6 million tonnes.
3.5 to 3.6 million tonnes.
And if I were to look at the next 2 years, any number that we should actually build on?
It's difficult for us at this point of time to talk about anything beyond current financial year, any future numbers. It depends on a lot of things. If any new discovery happens and the drilling results, whatever we are doing, but first, certainly, our path to continue growth in crude oil production at least 4% to 5% annually over next 2, 3 years' time frame. That is what the internal target is there, and hopefully, we'll be achieving this. But giving any specific number at this point will be difficult.
Not a problem, sir. On the Venezuela, I think now that the sanctions seems to be released. One is about, are we looking at CapEx; and secondly, about the pending dividends?
So right now, of course, there are certain positive developments in Venezuela, but the activity in the block that we have, has not started as yet. The production is much lower. We are raising the position. And perhaps in the next 2 quarters, we will give some more clarity on the prospects there.
And the pending dividend will be used for any additional CapEx? Or would that be released to you?
Additional CapEx will happen -- as you're talking about Venezuela, additional CapEx will happen only if the project activities start moving up. So what will be the time frame and all? It would be very difficult because we are still studying, trying to examine the effects of this ease in the sanction issues. So it's very early to say that the -- but it gets commitment that we can indicate that we have a total commitment of $435 million, $56 million -- about $60 million is already spent. So in case the project picks up further, then yes, future CapEx will happen. But the time frame when it will happen? We'll not be able to say.
On the Mozambique front, obviously, there's already talk about escalation in the cost potentially. So incremental cost, would it largely be raised as debt at the equity level? Or would they be calling you for equity contribution?
It will be largely on debt basis.
Thank you. As there are no further questions, I would now like to hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.
Thank you very much, once again, Antique and Mr. Varatharajan, especially for hosting our conference call. And thank you all the analysts and investors who joined our conference call for joining us, for first taking clarifications or questions, et cetera. And we are open to answer any further queries. You can always refer back at any point of time you want. And I hope our results have been satisfactory or we feel it's better than satisfactory because except for the exceptional number that we have indicated INR 2,600 crore provision, otherwise the operating and financial performance of the company has been consistently better over the last 4, 5 quarters. So we assure the investors about the continued sound performance and the concerns on the dividend part also. Let us we assure that we will be meeting dividend expectations of the shareholders, of the investors and in line with the guidelines that are there for dividend distribution by the government. So thank you very much once again for everyone for joining. And thank you, Antique Stockbroking.
I would like to hand the conference over to Mr. Varatharajan Sivasankaran for closing comments.
Thanks, Rohit. I'd like to thank the management for giving us this opportunity to hold the call and thank all the participants for joining in and asking very interesting questions. Thanks, everyone, and have a nice day and wish you a very happy Diwali.
Happy Diwali from our behalf.
On behalf of Antique Stockbroking, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.