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NTPC Ltd
Earnings Call Analysis
Q3-2024 Analysis
NTPC Ltd
In a complex economic landscape, NTPC Limited has demonstrated resilience with its Q3 FY '24 and cumulative nine-month performance, showing steadfast operational and financial health. Despite headwinds, the company's profit after tax (PAT) for the third quarter was reported at INR 4,572 crores, a slight increase of 2.14% over the same period last year. On a nine-month basis, the PAT rose by 8.66%, reaching INR 12,523 crores, signifying steady progress. However, the group experienced a slight contraction in total income over nine months, inching down to INR 1,32,349 crores from INR 1,33,231 crores year over year. Subsidiaries contributed positively, with profits climbing to INR 1,516 crores from INR 1,290 crores, culminating in a robust 17.45% gain.
The company has bolstered its capacity, with NTPC's commercial power standing at 57,838 megawatts, a testament to the success of its expansion strategy. Electrical output in the nine-month period saw a 7% increase, echoing a strong operational performance amidst efficient coal generation and power plant load factors (PLF) that eclipsed national averages. This was achieved even as the company maneuvered through reduced power surrender by beneficiaries and minimized generation loss due to fuel supply issues. Cementing its industry leadership, the company also attained its highest-ever coal production, evidence of efficacious supply chain optimization.
Aligning with global shifts towards sustainable energy, NTPC has commissioned 3,364 megawatts of renewable energy projects, with 7,808 megawatts more in the pipeline, highlighting the company's dedication to green initiatives. The story of its renewable journey also includes near-term plans to introduce a 22 TPD biomass pellets plant, further diversifying its renewable portfolio.
Reflecting its strong corporate governance and employment practices, NTPC has been awarded the prestigious Gold Award for Annual Reporting by the South Asian Federation of Accountants (SAFA) and has basked in acclaim being named among the World's Best Employers for 2023. These accolades signify not just external recognition but also internal commitments to excellence and sustainability.
Investors can take heart from the fact that NTPC's financial prudence is evident from its dividend declarations, with a total interim dividend of INR 4.5 per share for FY '23-'24. The company's adjusted profit for Q3 FY '24 stands at INR 4,468 crores compared to the previous year's INR 4,424 crores, an indicator of sound financial management. Over a nine-month period, the adjusted profit is up to INR 11,760 crores, underscoring the value creation potential NTPC holds for its shareholders.
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Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to Q3 FY '24 Earnings Conference Call of NTPC Limited, hosted by IIFL Securities Limited. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded.
I now hand the conference over to Mr. Harsh Dole from IIFL Securities Limited. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thanks, moderator. Greetings, everyone. I'm Harsh Dole. On behalf of IIFL Securities, I welcome you all to the 3Q FY '24 earnings call of NTPC. To discuss the performance of the quarter gone by and share the outlook, we have the entire senior management team of NTPC.
I would request Mr. Jaikumar Srinivasan, Director, Finance, to make the opening remarks, subsequent to which the floor will be open for Q&A. Over to you, sir.
Thank you, and good afternoon to all the esteemed's participation. I hope I'm quite audible.
Yes, sir, you are audible.
I am Jaikumar Srinivasan, Director of Finance, at NTPC Limited. It's my pleasure to extend a warm welcome to each of you for the Q3 and 9 months financial year '24 conference call. Thanks again for joining us today.
I have with me Shri Dillip Kumar Patel, Director, Human Resource; Shri Ramesh Babu, Director, Operations; Shri Shivam Srivastava, Director of Fuel; Shri K. Shanmugha Sundaram, Director, Project. I have also with me other key members of the NTPC team.
Yesterday, company announced the unaudited financial results for Q3 and 9 months FY '24. The key performance highlights for Q3 FY '24 and 9 months FY '24 have already been disclosed on both stock exchanges.
NTPC has completed yet another remarkable quarter with a resilient operational and financial performance. Coming to the operational performance, as on 31st December 2023, the commercial capacity of NTPC stands at 57,838 megawatts on a stand-alone basis and 73,874 megawatts for the group as a whole.
NTPC Group generated 315 billion units in 9 months financial year '24 as compared to 295 billion units in 9 months financial year '23, an increase by 7%. NTPC stand-alone gross generation in 9 months financial year '24 is 268 BUs as compared to 255 BUs in the corresponding previous period, an increase of 5%.
During 9 months financial year '24, PLF of coal stations of NTPC was 76.40% as against the national average of 68.51%. For 9 months financial year '24, core coal stations of NTPC which is Bhilai, Korba, Rihand and Singrauli, were among the top 10 performing stations in the country in terms of plant load factor.
During the 9 months FY '24, there has been lower power surrender by the beneficiary due to lower un-requisitioned power of 66 billion units against 72 billion units in the corresponding previous period. There was a generation loss fuel supply of just 0.33 billion units against 2 billion units in the corresponding period of the previous year.
As regards the status of the fuel supply during Q3 FY '24, materialization of coal against annual contractor quantity was 95% as against 98% in the corresponding previous period. Coal supply during Q3 FY '24 was 62.37 million metric tonne and including 2.15 million metric tonne of imported coal.
The coal supply during the corresponding previous period was 54.02 MMT, including 1.57 MMT of imported coal. NTPC Group has registered the highest-ever coal production of 25.36 million metric tonne in 9 months financial year '24, with a growth of over 74% as against 14.55 MMT in previous 9 months. The cumulative expenditure of INR 10,612.52 crores has been incurred on the development of coal mines till 31st December 2023.
Coming to the financial highlights. Total income for Q3 FY '24 is INR 40,288 crores as against INR 42,149 crores in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. On a 9-month basis, the total income is INR 1,21,486 crores as compared to INR 1,24,685 crores in the 9 months financial year '23.
PAT for Q3 FY '24 is INR 4,572 crores as against INR 4,476 crores in the corresponding quarter of the previous year, registering an increase of 2.14%. On a 9-month basis, PAT is INR 12,523 crores as against INR 11,524 crores in the 9 months FY '23, registering an increase of 8.66%.
Total income of the group for 9 months FY '24 is INR 1,32,349 crores as against INR 1,33,231 crores in the corresponding previous period. PAT of group as a whole for 9 months FY '24 is INR 14,842 crores as against the corresponding previous period PAT of INR 12,250 crores, registering an increase of 21.16%.
During Q3 FY '24, our subsidiaries earned a profit of INR 1,516 crores as compared to INR 1,290 crores in the corresponding period of the previous year, registering an increase of 17.45%. NTPC's share of profit in JV has increased from INR 481 crores in 9 months FY '23 to INR 1,424 crores in 9 months FY '24.
During 9 months FY '24, we have accounted dividend income of INR 662 crores as against INR 1,053 crores during the 9 months FY '23. We had declared a first interim dividend of INR 2.25 per share for the financial year '23-'24 after second quarter results. Further, we have declared second interim dividend of INR 2.25 per share yesterday, plus the total interim dividend of INR 4.5 per share have been declared for the financial year '23-'24.
Coming to the regulated equity as on 31st December 2023 was INR 82,094 crores for NTPC on stand-alone basis and INR 98,712 crores on group basis. On the fund mobilization side, the average rate of interest during the 9 months financial year '24 is -- for NTPC is 6.66% as compared to 6.32% in the 9 months financial year '23.
Capital expenditure outlay of NTPC Group has been estimated at INR 28,373 crores for financial year '24. In 9 months FY '24, we have incurred a group CapEx of INR 21,552 crores as compared to INR 26,058 crores in the corresponding previous period.
I'd like to list on a few other highlights. NTPC Group is deeply committed to advancing renewable energy initiatives. As of now, we have successfully commissioned 3,364 megawatts of renewable energy projects. Currently, an additional 7,808 megawatt of renewable energy projects are in the various stages of construction. Moreover, we have 8,225 megawatt of renewable energy projects in the tendering process, and a substantial 3,350 megawatt equivalent land bank is at our disposal, presenting a tangible pipeline of overall 22,747 megawatts at present.
As part of our overall energy security plans, we are actively considering awarding thermal capacity of close to 16.8 gigawatt in near future. This is in addition to the 10-gigawatt thermal capacity already under construction for the group. Furthermore, to have greater fuel security, we are enhancing our coal mining capacity as well and expect to reach an annual production of 50 million tonnes in the next 3 years.
On December 15, 2023, MDO contract was awarded for Badam coal mining project, marking a significant milestone as all 6 coal mining projects of NTPC now have MDO contracts in place.
Going higher on generation, lowering greenhouse gas intensity remain our motto for environment management and drives our efforts to comply with new environment norms. We have taken significant steps to control SOx and NOx emissions. Over the next 3 years, we plan to commission FGD system for our entire operational and under construction capacity, ensuring a substantial reduction in SOx emission. 65,200 megawatt has been awarded, out of which 5,960 megawatts have already been commissioned, and 59,240 megawatt is under implementation.
NTPC Group achieved 300 billion units power generation in financial '23-'24 in record time of 262 days, which is 18 days earlier compared to the last financial.
Erection work of 22 TPD biomass pellets plant at Bathinda, Punjab has been completed, and the project is likely to be commissioned in Q4 of financial year '23-'24. Erection activity for setting up of 50 tonnes per day pellet plant at NTPC Dadri and 100 TPD pellet plant at APCPL had just -- are in progress.
Some of the awards, accolades for NTPC for -- in Q3 financial year '24. NTPC received Gold Award for Annual Report at the Corporate Governance Disclosures Competition 2022 organized by the South Asian Federation of Accountants, SAFA. The annual report of NTPC for the year '21-'22 has been confirmed with Gold Award, Public Sector Entities category under SAFA Best Presenter Annual Reports Awards, Integrated Reporting Awards and SAARC Anniversary Award for Corporate Governance Disclosures Competition 2023.
NTPC coal mine bagged Star Rating Award under the Star Rating system instituted by the Ministry of Coal to promote green, safe and sustainable mining practices. NTPC Dulanga coal mining project has been awarded Star Rating award third rank under the category of opencast mines for the year 2019-'20, '20-'21 and '21-'22. NTPC Talaipalli coal mining project has also been awarded Star Rating, Achievers Rank under the opencast category for the year '19-'20.
NTPC has been recognized as one of the World's Best Employer 2023 in the Forbes World's Best Employer list 2023. It ranked 261st out of top 700 companies in the world ranking and is the only Indian PSU to figure in the list. This is a testimony that the people practices at NTPC are at par with the top companies in the world.
These are some of the key highlights I wanted to share before we begin the question-and-answer session. Thank you so much.
I hand over to Mr. Harsh Dole. Thank you so much.
[Operator Instructions] The first question is from the line of [ Anuj ], ICICI.
Yes. Am I audible?
Yes, sir, you're audible.
I just had a couple of questions. First, on the lines of -- so if I see your stand-alone P&L, point number 5, profit before regulatory deferral account balances, that seems to have declined both on a quarter-on-quarter basis and on a Y-o-Y basis. While I understand there is point 6 as well, which talks about some regulatory deferral account balances, my question is, how is the regulatory -- first of all, how should I be looking at the profit? Should I be looking at profit for the whole period, including regulatory deferral?
And second question is, how do I project this number? Because this number has been very volatile in the last few quarters. If I see last year, it was of the likes of a loss of about INR 1,750 crores, and this quarter, it is a profit of about INR 1,466 crores. So that's point number one.
And second question is if you can just quantify the incentives for this quarter, given that your PF -- the plant availability factor was down about 6%, 7% from a quarter-on-quarter perspective. So these 2 questions.
Yes. So first question was on the stand-alone profitability, how you should be looking at the profitability. So in fact, a mark of comparison, you should be looking at overall profitability, which is up by INR 998.55 crores. The regulatory deferral, there was a peculiar thing in the last year that we had changed the method of -- methodology of accounting where all the sale of ash collections were accounted for under your regulatory deferral. But subsequently, this was -- by account transfer, it was all shifted to the actual revenue. So to that extent, there will be a variation seen. But on an overall basis, the profitability remains progressive.
Coming to your next question regarding incentives. The kind of incentive is for the third quarter, it is INR 124 crores. And overall, for the 9 months, the incentive is INR 562 crores -- INR 462 crores, which is higher compared to the last year. The trend is on an increasing trend. If you are to look at the figures of incentive for the last 3 years, it has grown from INR 164 crores, INR 354 crores, then INR 424 crores and now it is INR 462 crores.
Okay. Just one clarification. This net movement in regulatory deferral would remain elevated at these levels. Would it be fair to assume that? Or should it reverse going forward in the future quarters?
No. The regulatory deferral will have -- because based on 2, 3 components. One, it can be due to foreign currency movement because of regulatory orders. So there is -- we can't capture a trend per se.
No, sir, basically, you were saying that there has been some accounting difference between last year same quarter and this year -- this quarter. So that's why I was just asking. So you're saying it's difficult to comment.
No, no. To that extent, that peculiar transaction is a onetime, and it will not be repeated.
The next question is from the line of Sitaram Agarwal from Tree Line Investment Management. Ms. Sitaram, you are audible. Please, you can ask your question.
The next question is from the line of Mohit Kumar from ICICI Securities.
Sir, my first question is, what was the under recovery in the 9 months? And what was this number in H1?
Under recovery in sense of disincentive, you mean?
Yes, the under recovery.
Under recovery in the third quarter was close to INR 256 crores. And overall, it is around INR 740 crores, which we should see the reversal during the fourth quarter. This was essentially due to some more number of outages that were taken in the third quarter because it's kind of an over planning that during the first quarter of the next year, the demand is likely to be upside. So as a preparatory measures, more number of outages are taken in the third quarter. So you should see a lot of reversals in the fourth quarter.
I think I would like to give some clarification on this. The government of India has said the -- to the power companies that they should not take any overhauls for the month of March onwards. So some of the overhauls that were supposed to be taken in March, that was preponed. Similarly, in the beginning of the year after June, we were not allowed to take any overhauls because of the prevailing grid conditions. So some of these overhauls were also adjusted in these months. So we have taken more overhauls during this period. And once these units come back on path, you will see a lot of reversal of this under recoveries.
My second question is that the fact that the under recovery has been higher in the last 5 years. And one of the key reasons could be that peak, off peak, lower season, high season and the new regulation, the lower season, high season has gone off. Do you think this will help materially for us to report a lower under recovery in the mix tariff rate [indiscernible] if the [indiscernible] regulation prevails in the final?
Yes, it could actually help the company. In fact, with the government giving us the directions to schedule our overhauls, we were facing some problems. And we're actually telling the government also that this high demand, low demand thing should go. So -- and in this '24-'25 regulation, that has been removed. So to this extent, yes, the under recovery will be less. We have the -- we do not have this high demand, low demand.
Just to add to what Director, Operations said, yes, this -- the changed rule -- changed provisions, regulation will give us a better latitude to manage our grid condition because earlier, whatever was the declared peak and nonpeak and as compared to what was the real situation -- grid situation, so it's likely -- this will be a better latitude to operate.
The last question is on the -- government is saying about adding 88 gigawatt on coal -- 88 gigawatt of coal in next 10 years. Are we revising our capacity addition target for coal-based power plant as of now? Or do you think we will revise it later?
Out of which, NTPC is going to add 16.8 gigawatt thermal directly, and indirectly, we'll be supporting the state government utilities in awarding 7 gigawatts.
The next question is from the line of [ Ravikanth ] from Tara Capital.
[ Ravikanth Desai ]. This is my one small question. Is there any planning of merger of TSPC and [ Midpoint ] and [ PPC ]?
No. To our information, there is no such -- and whatever is there, it can be -- just be a speculative kind of thing. Officially, there is nothing with us.
The next question is from the line of Atul Tiwari from Citi.
Yes. Sir, what was the recurring PAT in the quarter, if you could share that number? Normally, you adjust for some one-off, et cetera, and...
Yes, yes, yes. See, if you are referring to what can you term as adjusted profit, our adjusted profit for the current 9 months thing is -- this should be -- so for the Q3, it was INR 4,468 crores as compared to INR 4,424 crores in the previous Q3. If you talk of a 9-month basis, our adjusted profit is INR 11,760 crores, which compares favorably. The previous year, it was INR 11,418 crores last year.
Okay. And sir, this 16.8 gigawatt award plan, so like which are some of the key projects like which you could award over, say, next 6 months to 1 year out of this pipeline?
This would be Singrauli 3, 1,600 megawatt; Sipat 3, 800 megawatt; Darlipali Unit 1, 800 megawatt. So this would be typically in the Q1, Q2 tendering for the forthcoming year. There is one more, Meja, 2,400 megawatt, and NPGCL 2, 2,400 megawatts; Telangana 2, 2,400 megawatt. So besides this, there will be Gadarwara, Anpara, Obra, Patratu. So totaling to 16,800 -- 16.8 gigawatt. So out of this 9,600 would be on a stand-alone NTPC and 7.2 gigawatt would be implemented through the JV subsidiary.
The next question is from the line of Puneet Gulati from HSBC.
So basically, out of the 16.8, the breakup is the 9.6 and 7 gigawatt, right? That's how one should read in terms of this?
Yes, 9.6 and 7.2 is the breakup between stand-alone and the JV subsidiary.
And what is the time line of the award for all of this? And what stages are -- which one will be the first one to go?
Yes. It's -- as I was mentioning, in Q1, Q2, around 5,600 gigawatt should be -- 5.6 gigawatt should be tendered out in the Q1 and Q2 of next year. And 6,400 should be for Q2 of '25-'26, and 4,800 could be there in the Q3 of '25-'26.
Q3 of '25-'26. So FY '25, 5.6 and about 11.2 in FY '26?
5.6, 6.4 and 4.8.
And 6.4 is also FY '26, right?
6.4 is '25-'26.
Yes, yes, FY '25-'26. And same year for 4.8 in Q2?
One second, just hold on. So 4.8 would be '26-'27. There was a typo.
Yes, yes. So for the first 5.6, which is due Q1 '25, which is even less than 6 months, what are the stages of approval that you need to cross? And where are you on those?
I will ask -- request my Director, Project to elaborate on this.
In case of Singrauli, there is no need for studies. All studies have been completed. For Sipat, we are waiting for the EC. And for Darlipali, we need certain amount of land acquisition as well as EC. And Meja, certain amount of land for [ us, that ] is required. However, as committed by Director of Finance, we'll be able to award it by next 6 months this pipeline.
Okay. So you're expecting EC for all to come in next 6 months, EC and land acquisition also to get completed? And Singrauli, you have EC already in place?
Yes. We have already the EC.
Okay. Secondly, if it's possible to break up your other income in form of income from subsidiaries and rest of the income, it would be very helpful.
You want the details of other income?
Yes. Broadly breakup from basically dividend from subsidiaries, JVs and the others, surcharge, et cetera.
See, the breakup of dividend would be that the dividend from subsidiaries, INR 190 crores, and total -- and the dividend from JVs would be INR 463 crores. The gross will be INR 662 crores. What was your other question?
Yes. And then there will be surcharge income, et cetera, right?
One second. Your surcharge for 9 months is INR 186 crores compared to INR 459 crores last year. So the surcharge is always on a reduction trend because of the good collection efficiency now.
Right. Understood. My last question is on your renewable capacity that's still about 3.3. You've had -- you're sitting on 3 gigawatt quite a bit. Are you happy with the pace of commissioning? Or do you expect that pace of commissioning to change in the year ahead? You have 4 gigawatt of pipeline already.
We have a commissioned capacity of 3.3 gigawatt, but we are gearing up, as I was [ telling ] in my initial remarks that 7.8 gigawatt is already under execution with PPA available, construction contracts are all awarded. Another 11.9 gigawatt is in the pipeline where we have won the bid either or received the LOA has been received, PPA has been signed. JV -- some of them are through JVs, so JV has been signed. Term sheet and some consents received. So these are under well state of preparation, so under execution also.
But nevertheless, I'll ask -- request my CEO of NGEL and REL to elaborate on this, Mr. Mohit Bhargava.
And also on the 7,800 megawatts, which is under construction, what should be the time line of commissioning for FY '25 and '26? And if you're [indiscernible] more [ income ] in FY '26?
Yes. First things first, no, we are not happy with the pace of execution, but these are things which are not in our control. And now hopefully, we are back on tract. The major issue, of course, was the module supply. So we started receiving the supply [ now ].
We -- out of the 7.8, which is already ordered, progressively, we hope to commission them over the next 24 months. But about 1 gigawatt definitely will come by March. That's what our target is because of what is going on. [ Nevertheless ], of course, the idea is to have close to another 3 gigawatts next year and balance thereafter.
The next question is from the line of Lavina from Jefferies.
Just wanted to check again on this slower pace of execution. Outside of receipt of modules, is there anything on the land acquisition side or certain other fronts maybe delaying the execution? Just wanted a perspective that your 3-year target is in place, your '25-'26 target?
No, the major challenge was module only because there has been a change in what the regulations have been put in place by the government. So this is what delayed the module procurement. Other than that, I would say these are routine issues. Land and execution challenges through the EPC contractors are always there, but that's our job to take care of those. So we don't perceive anything specific, which is out of hand there.
Okay. So your '25-'26 target would be in place, right, what you'll have in mind, what you [ will have been ] guiding for?
Yes.
The next question is from the line of Anuj Upadhyay from Investec.
Sir, my first question belongs to the under recovery, which you mentioned in 9 months, we had around INR 740 crores of under recovery, and we target to bring it down. Any number you want to put or where we would like to end up FY '24 figures for the under recovery?
It would be around INR 400 crores to INR 450 crores.
INR 400 crores to INR 450 crores. Okay.
Second is on the capacity addition, sir. So while the renewable target has been mentioned, how about the conventional things? So like year-to-date, we have added close to 1.6 gigawatt of capacity. And if I'm correct, we had given a consol target of adding somewhere close to 6 to 7 gigawatt of an annual basis, of which roughly 3 gigawatt would be renewable. So how are the balance 4 gigawatt of conventional capacity panning out? Are we sticking to the time line for FY '24, '25, '26 numbers? Or there is some kind of a change we expect?
The current year target was 3.80 in conventional, which we'll be able to achieve. We have North Karanpura Unit 2 and the Telangana Unit 2, Anandpur, Maitree Unit 2 in Bangladesh. These 3 are pending. These 3 are on track. They are expected to be commissioned by the month of February.
Okay. So they have been synchronized, sir, right?
North Karanpura has achieved full load also. Telangana as well is going to achieve full load in 2 to 3 days. Maitree is not able to [ do the tie-up ] because of 4 issues. Now they are also starting [ this ].
Fine, sir. And for FY '25-'26?
For FY '25, we have a target of around 4 gigawatt plus, '25. And for FY '26, around 2.7 gigawatt plus. And we will be having this Patratu, 800 megawatt, Barh [ 1,660 megawatt ], North Karanpura Unit #3, then 1 unit of THDC Khurja. This is the line to break up.
This is for financial '26.
All right, sir. And the PPA and [ FSA ] are all in place for this capacity, which are likely to come up by FY '26, right, sir?
Yes.
Okay. And only for the new projects which we have announced, 16.8 gigawatt, we need to seek the approval for the same like for the PPA and [ FSA ] is something which we are still seeking?
Yes. It's in the cards, no issue.
Okay. And lastly, on the cash flow front, so factoring the thing that we are adding close to 6, 7 gigawatt on an annual basis, how would our cash flow be placed so that we can meet the equity CapEx for this capacity? If you can throw some light on this, it would be helpful, sir.
We have a comfortable projection, depending on all the capacity additions, and your better regulated equity, we are -- we'll keep on adding. So our cash flow projection is comfortable and would be able to take care of our 30% equity for all this requirement.
The next question is from the line of Sushil Dhoot from Nuvama Wealth Management.
As there is no response from the participants, we will go to the next question. The next question is from the line of Satyadeep Jain from AMBIT Capital.
First question on renewable energy. On the 7.8 gigawatt that you're looking at for the next 2-odd years, given we've seen correction in module prices and you've finally secured modules, any idea the IRR on these projects that you're looking at? Would it be better than the projects you already have executed? Or is it -- could it be better than the existing projects? That's the first one.
If the module prices remain corrected and maybe go down further, definitely, there will be better IRR.
What kind of IRRs we're looking at in renewable energy?
I think that was not clear.
Yes. What kind of -- any bidding for projects? What -- can you hear?
Sorry to interrupt, sir, your voice is not clear. Kindly use handset, please.
Am I audible?
Yes, sir, you're audible.
Yes, please.
Many biddings for RE projects, what is the IRR you're looking at for RE now?
See, the renewable side is a competitive arena. And the IRR is something which I can only give you a range. I cannot be very specific about this. So we are looking for a very healthy IRR, which would be comparable with what we are earning in the cost-plus segment. I cannot be more specific.
Okay. On the 16.8 gigawatts of capacity for coal you mentioned, any idea how much of that could be pithead and how much non-pithead?
Almost Singrauli is pithead. Barh is also pithead. Darlipali is pithead. Meja is non-pithead. Telangana is pithead. Gadarwara, non-pithead. Patratu, pithead. Obra, Anpara -- so we can tally it up and give it to you specifically if you want the megawatt, but on a ballpark basis, 60% -- 60% to 65% is on a pithead basis, and remaining 35% is on a non-pithead.
Okay. Just one clarification on the capacity expansions. You mentioned 4 gigawatt for FY -- more than 4 gigawatt for FY '24. Is it largely on time when we look at Telangana Unit 1, North Karanpura Unit 3? Can you maybe just talk about how much are you looking at commissioning in the first half of FY '25?
The next year you are talking, first half?
Yes.
First half, it will be Barh and North Karanpura.
You're talking about award or commissioning?
Commissioning, commissioning.
Telangana will be committed in this year itself. Telangana, North Karanpura Unit 2 by this year itself. Next year, it will be 1 unit of North Karanpura, 1 unit of Barh and 1 unit of Patratu and 1 unit of THDC Khurja.
These will be in -- are you seeing first half of FY '25, right?
Hello? Can we proceed? Hello?
The next question is from the line of Nikhil from Bernstein.
My first question is on pumped storage project. Last time, we had announced that there's about 14 gigawatts of opportunities under various phases -- stages of discussion. I wanted to check, what is the status on that? Any progress that has been made on those pumped storage opportunities?
After going through all the studies and analysis and the interaction, right now, we are aiming at 7 gigawatt, out of which Tamil Nadu contributes 3 gigawatt, and the MOU is at the last stage. Maharashtra, 800, it has been -- MOU has been signed yesterday. Chhattisgarh, around 1,200; Gujarat, 1,000; Meghalaya, 1,000. These are the probable customers for us.
It's around 7 gigawatts we are aiming. Out of which, Maharashtra has materialized. Rest are in different stage of process. Tamil Nadu will get it very soon. Meghalaya, we're on [indiscernible]. Gujarat, we're following up.
And just one update on Maharashtra. Maharashtra is actually 2 gigawatts. That's what we signed and expected.
2 gigawatts. So overall, 8 gigawatts, which are under active stages?
Yes. We were planning for 800. Our Maharashtra signed for 2 gigawatts. So it's possibly now 8 gigawatt.
Understood. And in terms of time line, what should we expect to see? So the first ones are getting commissioned?
Generally, the time taken is 2 years for DPR, then for a construction period of 5 to -- between 5 to 6 years. [ Quarterly, around 7, 8 ].
Got it. Understood. My second question is on the renewable front. So I had a couple of clarifications there. Just firstly, on FY '26, just wanted to clarify what number are we then targeting? Is it about 15 gigawatts of renewable by FY '26, which we had communicated in the last call? Or if that number revised downwards now in terms of total operating capacity by FY '26 end?
No, no. We are still in that ballpark.
Got it. Got it. And second question on renewable there is on transmission front. Is transmission a reason for delay or which could potentially delay our aspirations on the renewable front?
Difficult to say upfront, but yes, the transmission is a challenge for actually all the developers, and the government and the transmission basically are focusing on that. Most of the power projects have connectivity in place, but yes, in a few of them probably, there might be minor delay in connectivity, but we don't anticipate that to materially impact us.
Got it. Got it. That's helpful. Maybe one last question from my side. On the module price question, which came up earlier as well, given the crash in module prices, as you said, should benefit us, the 7.8 gigawatts, which is under construction on renewables, for them, am I correct to understand it's typically on a turnkey basis, where the module price is already locked?
No, no, no. In fact, most of that is in the 2-package mode where we are procuring modules directly.
Understood. And would the orders have been placed already on the module front as well? Or...
No. No, not for all. We have placed order for about 2.5 gigawatts.
The next question is from the line of Akshat Vyas from Reliance Nippon Life Insurance.
Just wanted to ask CapEx for the full year is how much?
Sorry, sir, you're not audible. I just...
Sorry, sir, it's not audible.
Sir, CapEx for the [indiscernible].
As there is no response from participants, we will go the next. The next question is from the line of Swati Jhunjhunwala from BOB Capital.
First question is on coal mining. So for 9 months, we have done to 20 MMT against our target of 34 million tonnes for the entire year. So is that target still intact? Or are we revising it?
No madam, we are already on the track, and we have already produced 27 million tonne plus, and we'll be achieving this target.
So this 27 million tonne of -- according to your key highlights, you said it's around 20 million for 9 months. So is that -- can you just clarify what is the difference between the 20 and 27?
They couldn't get you that you're talking about [ banners ] production?
Yes. So your key highlights, the coal produced is 20 million tonne for 9 months. Is that right?
So that is for previous year, madam. This year, it is 27 million. Till date, madam, it is 27 million tonnes and what figure you're seeing for the 9 months, so we are on track.
25.36 million is 9 months, and right now, we are 27 million.
Got it. So the 34 million tonne is intact? This will be achieved by the end of the year.
Absolutely. Yes.
Okay. Got it. And second question is on the renewable front. So we're planning to commission around about 15 gigawatt by FY '26. But do -- the pumped storage capacities that are coming up for 8 gigawatt, as you said, will take another 6 to 7 years. So the kind of PPA that you are signing, is it on an RTC basis? Or is it on a project-to-project basis?
No, the PPAs which we have signed also include RTC power, but for those RTC PPAs, we are not looking at our own pumped storage as of now. In fact, as we had mentioned last time also, we've already tied up for a 500-megawatt pumped storage, and we have another 1,500 megawatt storage bid in the market. So we'll be using that capacity for meeting our PPA requirements.
All right. Understood. And last question on the 16.8 gigawatt thermal capacity. So of this, is the entire 16.8 under RTM? Or is only the 9.6 that is the stand-alone part is that the only 1 under the regulators [indiscernible]?
No. The entire capacity would be predominantly on a cost-plus basis.
On a cost-plus basis. All right. Okay.
The next question is from the line of Dhruv from HDFC AMC.
Sir, just one point to clarify. 10 gigawatt of thermal assets are already under construction. And over and above that, we are planning to tender out 16.8 gigawatt of thermal capacity.
You have to be a bit louder, please.
Sir, 10 gigawatt of thermal capacities are already under construction, and 16.8 gigawatt we have to tender in the next 2, 3 years. That's over and above about 10 gigawatt. And sir, any status on this 16.8 in terms of the PPAs, the states which are coming up to sign PPAs? Is there a willingness or just some status there?
We have PPAs for some of them, like Darlipali, Singrauli, and we'll be signing PPAs for others like Sipat and Telangana 2 and other projects.
But the states are coming forward to sign PPAs, is it? Or I mean, where are we right now in terms of their willingness to sign [indiscernible]?
Yes, yes, they are willing to signs PPAs.
Okay. Got it. And sir, the other thing, a small point was what was the PAF under recovery, the fixed charge under recovery in the last year same quarter, 3Q FY '23?
I think this is a repeat question, but nevertheless, let me...
Sir, last year. You had mentioned for the current year quarter, but for the last year quarter.
Okay. Last year, Q3 was INR 168 crores.
Fixed charge under recovery?
Last year was improvement, not under recovery. It was an improvement.
Of INR 168 crores. Got it.
The next question is from the line of Akshat Vyas from Reliance Nippon Life Insurance.
Yes. Sorry for the cut earlier. Sir, just wanted to know your CapEx for the next year would be how much? This year, you are saying [ INR 28,000 crores, INR 27,050 crores ]. For '24-'25 would be?
The overall CapEx for -- stand-alone CapEx for next year would be close to INR 22,700 crores. And for '25-'26, it could be close to INR 26,000 crores.
Sorry, how much?
INR 26,300 crores.
And sir, this would be done through how the fund -- the raising for the funds and all would be done through equity, debt?
Debt, equity, 70-30. That's the normative as far as the cost-plus projects are concerned, but renewable, it could be slightly different. We can go for higher leveraging, if possible.
Okay, sir. So FY '25, you said INR 22,700 crores for stand-alone, and '26, you said INR 26,300 crores for FY '26?
Yes.
The next question is from the line of [ Falguni Dutta ] from [ Mansuri Financial ].
I just have one question. So what's your view on the overall demand supply in power for the next 2 years, let's say, if we even include the renewable capacity therein?
You are talking about [indiscernible], I presume you're talking at the country level?
For country, yes.
Okay. Now I'll give you 2 projections. So one is by the end of '26-'27, the overall electricity demand in terms of peak demand, it would be 277. And on an energy basis, it would be 1,908 billion units. 1-9-0-8 BUs. And if you take a projection up to '31-'32, the peak demand would -- is estimated at 366 gigawatts, and the energy demand would be 2,474 billion units.
And sir, again, this for FY '27 against this how -- was the supply -- I just wanted to know, is there -- I mean how are we placed for the country? Will there be -- will the demand overshoot the supply or -- I mean, will the -- I just wanted to take a view in terms of merchant power rates and thereabout.
I can only share that right now, 27 gigawatts of coal capacity is already under construction. And another 31 gigawatts, close to that, is under advanced stage of planning, and another 18 gigawatts is required to be planned. So that would essentially mean that the coal capacity would be closer to INR 283 crores by the end of 2032. These are broad numbers -- that's the broad numbers available at the planning stage.
No, sir, just with your last statement, the -- this -- the 27 gigawatt, 31 and 18 were all for coal you mentioned, right?
That's right. All for coal, as all India basis. And the estimated closing capacity at the end of '32, 2032 should be closer to 283 gigawatts. This would factor some amount of retirement, possible retirement depending on the health of the plants. So we have factored around 2 gigawatt of retirement as well in this.
And so on the renewable side or we can say non-fossil fuel side, solar target addition would be 246, wind around 46 and from other sources, other non-fossil fuel sources of 52 gigawatts. So the total addition targeted as a country as a whole is 343. So this should take the overall capacity considering the existing capacity to 530 gigawatt by the end of 2032. And if you talk on aggregate basis, so that the total target capacity at the end of '32 would be 838 gigawatt. Total of 412 gigawatt would be the target addition, taking into account the conventional as well as your RE side.
So 412 gigawatt is the target addition till 2032?
That's right.
Okay. Sir, you don't think that with more solar coming in, I mean, what we hear is various companies putting up solar capacity. So is there a case that the panel capacity demand comes off a little bit, it gets offset with solar and therefore, we see some lesser demand for thermal, I mean, do you see such a situation?
Madam, see, I think you -- one of your questions was we'll be able to supply the demand. See, as of now, the current additions in the renewable sector and the thermal, there is no issue of meeting the demand during solar hours. Probably during nonsolar hours, the short time, there could be some crunch. But even that, provided all the thermal units on bar, that's not an issue. If thermal units are going under maintenance more than the required, then there's an issue. That is what is the demands of the situation.
The last question is from the line of Aditya Welekar from Axis Securities.
Sir, any color on the green hydrogen? There was an announcement yesterday that government of Maharashtra will be putting some INR 80,000 crore investment in NTPC Green Energy. So under what -- how can we -- how should we see this green hydrogen space shaping up in future?
Yes, our CEO of NGEL, Mohit Bhargava, will be taking this question.
Yes, I think there's one correction upfront. Maharashtra government does not intend to invest anything in NTPC. The MOU which has been signed says that we will be investing up to INR 80,000 crores in Maharashtra for setting up green hydrogen projects backed by renewable and pumped storage and so. So that is the broad objective in the MOU. And the broad time line is to do it within the next 5 years. Maharashtra recently came out with a new hydrogen policy, and this is broadly an outcome of that NTPC Green has committed to take up.
On a more generic note, green hydrogen is still evolving, and all the IPPs, including NTPC, are looking at kind of offtake business. Meanwhile, the government is also looking at [ coming up with ] mandates for the domestic companies.
So once all these things happen, the demand will be created because there are a lot of people who are willing to set up hydrogen projects or [indiscernible] projects, but ultimately, without uptake, this cannot be [indiscernible]. Till such time, most of the people are actually doing [indiscernible].
As that was the last question, I would now hand the conference over to Mr. Harsh Dole from IIFL Securities Limited for closing comments.
Thanks, operator. On behalf of IIFL Securities, I'd like to thank all the participants. And I'd also like to thank NTPC management for giving us an opportunity to host this call. Really appreciate, sir.
Before we conclude the call, would you like to extend any last message?
I would -- on behalf of the management of NTPC to thank all the participants for their very well-informed questions. And if there are any remaining queries, which are yet to be answered, we will be supplementing it through a direct reply to that. So thank you once again. Thank you very much.
Thank you. On behalf of IIFL Securities Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.