Jindal Stainless Ltd
NSE:JSL
| US |
|
Fubotv Inc
NYSE:FUBO
|
Media
|
| US |
|
Bank of America Corp
NYSE:BAC
|
Banking
|
| US |
|
Palantir Technologies Inc
NYSE:PLTR
|
Technology
|
| US |
C
|
C3.ai Inc
NYSE:AI
|
Technology
|
| US |
|
Uber Technologies Inc
NYSE:UBER
|
Road & Rail
|
| CN |
|
NIO Inc
NYSE:NIO
|
Automobiles
|
| US |
|
Fluor Corp
NYSE:FLR
|
Construction
|
| US |
|
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc
NYSE:J
|
Professional Services
|
| US |
|
TopBuild Corp
NYSE:BLD
|
Consumer products
|
| US |
|
Abbott Laboratories
NYSE:ABT
|
Health Care
|
| US |
|
Chevron Corp
NYSE:CVX
|
Energy
|
| US |
|
Occidental Petroleum Corp
NYSE:OXY
|
Energy
|
| US |
|
Matrix Service Co
NASDAQ:MTRX
|
Construction
|
| US |
|
Automatic Data Processing Inc
NASDAQ:ADP
|
Technology
|
| US |
|
Qualcomm Inc
NASDAQ:QCOM
|
Semiconductors
|
| US |
|
Ambarella Inc
NASDAQ:AMBA
|
Semiconductors
|
If you don’t study any companies, you have the same success buying stocks as you do in a poker game if you bet without looking at your cards.
Utilize notes to systematically review your investment decisions. By reflecting on past outcomes, you can discern effective strategies and identify those that underperformed. This continuous feedback loop enables you to adapt and refine your approach, optimizing for future success.
Each note serves as a learning point, offering insights into your decision-making processes. Over time, you'll accumulate a personalized database of knowledge, enhancing your ability to make informed decisions quickly and effectively.
With a comprehensive record of your investment history at your fingertips, you can compare current opportunities against past experiences. This not only bolsters your confidence but also ensures that each decision is grounded in a well-documented rationale.
Do you really want to delete this note?
This action cannot be undone.
| 52 Week Range |
501.3
834.95
|
| Price Target |
|
We'll email you a reminder when the closing price reaches INR.
Choose the stock you wish to monitor with a price alert.
|
|
Fubotv Inc
NYSE:FUBO
|
US |
|
|
Bank of America Corp
NYSE:BAC
|
US |
|
|
Palantir Technologies Inc
NYSE:PLTR
|
US |
|
C
|
C3.ai Inc
NYSE:AI
|
US |
|
|
Uber Technologies Inc
NYSE:UBER
|
US |
|
|
NIO Inc
NYSE:NIO
|
CN |
|
|
Fluor Corp
NYSE:FLR
|
US |
|
|
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc
NYSE:J
|
US |
|
|
TopBuild Corp
NYSE:BLD
|
US |
|
|
Abbott Laboratories
NYSE:ABT
|
US |
|
|
Chevron Corp
NYSE:CVX
|
US |
|
|
Occidental Petroleum Corp
NYSE:OXY
|
US |
|
|
Matrix Service Co
NASDAQ:MTRX
|
US |
|
|
Automatic Data Processing Inc
NASDAQ:ADP
|
US |
|
|
Qualcomm Inc
NASDAQ:QCOM
|
US |
|
|
Ambarella Inc
NASDAQ:AMBA
|
US |
This alert will be permanently deleted.
Jindal Stainless Ltd
You don't have any saved screeners yet
Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Jindal Stainless Limited Q4 and FY '24 Earnings Conference Call. hosted by IIFL Securities Limited. [Operator Instructions]. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Anupam Gupta from IIFL Securities. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thanks, Sajal, and welcome, everyone to Jindal Stainless Limited Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. From the management, we have Mr. Abhyuday Jindal, Managing Director for JSL; Mr. Tarun Khulbe, CEO; Mr. Anurag Mantri, CFO; and Ms. Shreya Sharma, Head of Investor Relations.
To start off, I'll hand it over to the management for the opening comments, and then we can move over to the Q&A. Over to you, sir.
Thank you, Anupam. Good afternoon, everyone, and a warm welcome on the call. We have shared our Q4 FY '24 earnings presentation in the Stock Exchanges, which is also available on the company's web site and today's call discussion will be on the same line.
Please note some of the information on this call may be forward-looking in nature and is covered by the disclaimer on the Slide 2 of the earnings presentation.
Now I would like to hand it over to our Managing Director, Mr. Abhyuday Jindal. Over to you, sir.
Thank you, and good afternoon to everyone, and welcome to the Q4 FY '24 Earnings Call. I'll first discuss the key business highlights of the quarter, following which, Anurag will take you through our operational and financial performance.
As we ramped up our operations in Jajpur unit, Q4 FY '24 witnessed record breaking delivery volumes with a notable 23% increase in sales volume for FY '24 compared to FY '23.
In the domestic market, we experienced strong demand across all major segments. The railway sector in particular, saw unprecedented growth, achieving its highest ever sales in the wagon segment, while demand for passenger coaches and Metro remains robust.
Additionally, the Auto, Pipe & Tube and Lift Elevator segments as well as other special grade segments also witnessed substantial demand. On the export front, our key markets continued to see muted demand along with geopolitical issues such as the one unfolding in the Red Sea.
These challenges have had an impact on our export performance and prevented us on optimizing our sales mix. These issues, coupled with the continuous and steep fall in nickel prices has impacted our margins in Q4 FY '24.
Now I would like to discuss our recent expansion announcement. We have announced a total expansion CapEx of around INR 5,400 crores. With these acquisitions and investments, we have orchestrated a plan to become one of the largest stainless steel producers in the world.
This comprehensive expansion plan targets a merit as well as downstream balancing facilities, which include collaboration with a Singapore entity for setting up of 1.2 million tonnes per annum stainless steel melt shop in Indonesia, wherein JSL will hold a 49% stake with an outlay of around INR 700 crores.
The joint venture in Indonesia promises optimal speed and ensure the security of raw materials. We are acquiring a 54% stake in Chromeni Steels, which is located in Mundra, Gujarat. The transaction entailed an outlay of INR 1,340 crores comprising the takeover of existing shareholder debt at around INR 1,295 crores and balance towards equity purchase.
Additionally, we have decided to invest around INR 1,900 crores for the enhancement of downstream facilities in [indiscernible], aligning with the SMS facility in Indonesia which will become operational at the same time.
Alongside this, nearly INR 1,450 crore outlay has been earmarked for improving and upgrading our overall infrastructure an additional and other sustainability-related projects in tandem with the expansion plans.
Further, I would like to highlight that, aligning with Atmanirbhar Bharat mission of Government of India, it is a constant endeavor to substitute imports in critical areas. I'm happy to share that our strategic arm, Jindal Defense and Aerospace successfully developed and supplied special alloy sheets for defense projects for enhancing the Indian Navy's anti-submarine warfare capabilities and for many other aerospace projects.
On the import side, imports from China continue to surge with around 20% increase on a year-on-year basis. With a consistent increase in Chinese dumping, the stainless steel market in India continues to be flooded by substandard exports. threatening the MSME sector and disrupting the level playing field needed for fair competition.
I would also like to share that as an organization commit to ESG goals. In March 2024, we inaugurated India's first green hydrogen plant in the stainless steel sector.
We have also officially announced our commitment to the near-term science-based emission reduction and net zero targets outlined by the global climate action body SBTI, Science-based targets initiatives, which is a significant step towards achieving carbon neutrality.
With this, I would like to hand over to Anurag to discuss the operational and financial performance.
Thank you, Abhyuday. Good afternoon, everybody, and warm welcome to the call. As highlighted by Abhyuday, we delivered a strong volume amidst the challenging global scenario.
Let me discuss the detailed operational and financial performance during quarter 4 FY '24 and FY '24 full year. We delivered the highest average sales volume of 570,362 metric ton in quarter, increased by 12% on Y-o-Y and 11% on quarter-on-quarter basis.
Accordingly, we had a strong sales volume growth of 23% in FY '24, leveraging the strong domestic demand through our flexible business model. The standalone quarter 4 revenue increased by 5% on Q-o-Q to INR 9,521 crores. Quarter 4 EBITDA and PAT stood at INR 827 crore and INR 476 crores, respectively.
The full year FY '24 stand-alone revenue increased by 9% Y-o-Y to INR 38,356 crores. EBITDA and PAT stood at INR 4,036 crores and INR 2,531 crores, respectively.
On the subsidiaries and associates side, I would like to update that our domestic -- our subsidiaries have performed well and adding to a total net EBITDA of INR 208 crores. The operational losses in overseas subsidiaries are also reduced. And one of adjust -- Indonesia, we have a one-off adjustment of INR 37 crores on account of a liquidation process.
To update on consolidating our stake on Spain subsidiary Iberjindal, I'm happy to share that we have acquired 30% stakes, i.e., 300,000 shares of face value of INR 1 each at EUR 0.10 per share with a total consideration of EUR 30,000. Accordingly, we now hold 95% stake in the Spain subsidiary.
With regard to the divestment of the stake in JCL, the company has divested 4.87% stake and exploring the option to divest the balance 21.12% stake, which will be completed by 30th September.
I'm happy to share that Board of Directors have recommended a final dividend payment of INR 2 for FY '24, subject to approval of shareholders, taking the total dividend payment for FY '24 to INR 3, which is 150% per equity share with a face value of INR 2 each.
As you know, we have recently announced a new expansion CapEx of INR 5,400 crores and revamped CapEx of INR 275 crores to restart and scale up the new acquisitions of Rathi, Chromeni and Rabirun. And we're getting the total CapEx -- CapEx to INR 5,675 crores over the next 3 years.
We also have some deferred and spillover CapEx of around INR 800 crores from FY '24. With this, the total CapEx outlook of FY '25 is expected to be around INR 4,700 crores to INR 4,800 crores.
The new CapEx is primarily to be financed through internal accruals, and we expect the closing debt of FY '25 to be at around INR 5,100 crores to INR 5,200 crores, which is an increase of only INR 300 crores to INR 400 crores, excluding the spillover CapEx of FY '24.
We will continue to focus on healthy leverage ratios by targeting -- while targeting the growth. To close and I reiterate on the demand outlook that we are confident of domestic stainless steel demand will continue to rise with robust economic activity.
With this, I would like to end my discussion and would request the moderator to open the floor for the Q&A session.
[Operator Instructions]. The first question is from the line of Amit Dixit from ICICI Securities.
I have 2 questions. The first one is potentially on EBITDA per tonne. So if we see in this quarter, there has been a meaningful decline. Now if you could group the decline in 3 buckets, that is nickel price decline, the inferior product mix or the third one is the freight cost.
So if you can just break the EBITDA per tonne decline in these 3 buckets that would be easier for us to understand.
And what kind of trajectory do you see in Q1 FY '25 for EBITDA per tonne especially since ferro-chrome prices are -- nickel prices have started moving up and so are the stainless steel prices. That is the first question.
So on the EBITDA question, I mean like this year normally the nickel prices fluctuate. But as we can see that unprecedently for the 9 months this year, the nickel prices continuously fall.
And if you see in the quarter 3, the fall was even steeper. So on one hand, while we try to minimize the impact of freight by managing our supply chain in an efficient way, but this was a bit continuous fall for us.
And secondly, coupled with that, we were trying to maintain our volumes also, our quarter 4 volumes have been our highest ever.
And then the third one, as we said, that the Red Sea problem because of which our exports freights and all which here suddenly multiplied, I would say, to our key markets of Europe and U.S.
But in Q1, we definitely see that already that the change in the nickel price is improving, we can see the things improving and we see the positivity here onwards even on EBITDA per tonne.
So one thing I would like to point out, and this can be seen every time by surging stainless steel market that when nickel starts to fall, the whole market actually stops. Because there is no clarity nickel, how much it will fall, what is the fall that can happen. But this is what the company has performed despite nickel consistently falling April to I would say almost Jan-Feb of this year.
It has fallen consistently every month. And despite that we are still pushed more volumes then was envisaged. So that is the positive on the company side.
Otherwise, in the past, always you see with nickel falling, volume decrease always happens. But this time, we have done a lot of effort to at least ensure there is no dip in volume and there is an increase in volume and already, like Mr. Khulbe saying and Amit like you were saying already with our raw material prices inching up, we are seeing better realization.
So basically on EBITDA per tonne front, and I'm not asking for a quarter or something for year FY '25 we will reiterate our guidance of INR 18,000 to INR 20,000.
Absolutely. Absolutely, we are quite confident of achieving that and we are reiterating our [indiscernible].
Okay. The second question is if you can just highlight a bit on the progress on NPI project in Indonesia. And what -- when can we expect the production at Rabirun and Rathi to come in.
So NPI project, our as per the original contract, as per the original JV agreement, it was supposed to get the commission by the Q4 of FY '25. But I can inform that we see that early Q2 '25, we are expecting to get commissioned.
Okay. So we would expect some kind of commercial sales also in this year?
Yes. After that, it will take 2, 3 quarters to ramp up.
And absolutely, little bit will start, but obviously, to reach 100% capacity utilization will take 2, 3, 4 quarters. But definitely, one from Q2 some commercial sales will start.
In FY '26, actually, we expect almost to reach 90% of this utilization, which is around 25,000 tonne versus a full capacity for 28,000 tonnes which is the 14% nickel content what we had to maintain as of 200,000 NPI.
Okay. And Rabirun and Rathi?
Rathi has started now until the rebar side because we started earlier with the wire rods, now started putting the rebar from.
On the Rathi, we are almost -- now hitting almost 75% of our capacity, but producing more of wire rods. Rebar we've just started, and here onwards rebar, which is more value-added will be ramping up on a month-on-month basis.
Every month from now, we will start reducing wire rod and start increasing our sales in rebars which is getting us more demand also and better realization also. And on a Rabirun, we have just started now producing our tubes and just that also [indiscernible]. We have just started it, so it will also gradually pick up. And we expect it to go to the level of 1,000, to 1,500 in the next number of quarters.
Rabirun is right now under more on a trial run. So but we just started the plant gradually basically on that a trial permission.
Understood. Thanks for the elaborate answer and all the best.
The next question is from the line of Ritesh Shah from Investec.
Sir, can you detail a bit on the product mix on how the change in Q4? Or if you can give some color on FY '23 versus '24?
On the product mix, you mean series wise?
Yes, 200, 300, 400.
Just give us a minute.
In FY '24, basically the series wise, we added 200 seres at almost 35% or close to around 35%; 300 series was close to around 45%; and 400 was around 20%.
Has 400 reduced on a year-on-year basis by any chance?
No, I would say because in FY '23, it was actually 14%. Practically it has increased on 400 series.
Sure. This is helpful. My second question is.
Ritesh, like the strategy like we discussed. So every time we want to only increase 400, so more applications, more areas of supply we're trying to create for 400 series.
Perfect. Sir, my question is more, say, 3 or 4 years ago, after the CapEx announcement of what you already had, are we looking at any major growth CapEx for, say, next 3 years, 4 years? Or is it something like we should look at maintenance CapEx only, I think?
It is definitely -- Ritesh, it is definitely in our plans that after, let's say, this investment that we have just announced, looking at the growth coming in India, looking at domestic demand requirement, we are very bullish on stainless story.
So definitely, after 3, 4 years, we will be coming up with a big CapEx. But at the moment, it's still too early to announce or discuss, but looking at the growth projections, looking at the demand, looking at our customer what they are saying, it will definitely be required.
Idea is to first exhaust this 1.2 million tonne capacity expansion which we are doing and then we'll obviously look for -- continue to look for the growth beyond that once we start exhausting those capacities.
Sure. We have basically acted on JCL, the implied valuations look pretty good. Why didn't we go for the entire state? Any timelines? I mean, you have given a timeline of September this year. Just wanted to get surety on that?
And secondly, will the valuation fee at par? Or it can actually changed?
So we have already done around 4% stake and balance, obviously, we are in the process as I mentioned. Valuation will be -- obviously, cannot be below this. So it's expected to be at par. We are trying to optimize the cash in hand of JCL that's the reason it's taking some time, but it's on track.
That's useful. And on Chromeni any timeline on the residual stake purchase?
No, we are evaluating it, and we are open to it, evaluating it, cannot give a timeline right now.
From our side, we would like to close it ASAP, but because there are external partners that we need to deal with. So it could take a little longer than what we want. But from management side, I can say tomorrow, I would like to close it. But it will take maybe a few more months or something.
Perfect. And then last one on Indonesia Upstream asset sale, what is the status? How are we looking at that?
Our cold rolling unit. So that Ritesh you are talking about the cold rolling unit right?
Yes, yes, yes, cold rolling.
So, the liquidation process has already started, Ritesh, on that. I think as far Indonesian law, all the process and formalities, we are now on track.
I think Indonesia, as a country takes some time because their compliances are much higher than what we see in India. But it's on track, and we expect that to be closed in maybe this financial year, hopefully.
The next question is from the line of Kirtan Mehta from BOB Capital Markets.
The question I would want to go back to the EBITDA per tonne to understand better the impact. Is it possible to share what was the nickel inventory valuation loss that we accounted in this quarter?
See, as we mentioned that -- see, what happens is that when nickel is consistently falling, typically between raw material and WIP, we maintain a more vessel head mechanism where we actually try to maintain the nickel inventories within the range to cater to our order book between raw material, WIP and FG.
So balancing our order book and the sourcing time and the manufacturing time. So when typically we have seen that nickel moves in a range bound manner in that case actually it recover on overall, we don't see that much of impact.
But as Abhyuday mentioned, is that since May it was falling and you saw last 2 quarters, we were still holding and -- those -- because last quarter, anyway our volumes were lower. So we could actually manage with the optimize the product mix on -- to have a right blended EBITDA margin.
But since it was continuous fall combined with the low exports, which actually improves our blended EBITDA margin to us because otherwise, those inventories will have to sell it into that -- some of the domestic market where the margins are comparatively lower in a different segment.
And also the ocean freight, which actually put up a pressure on this. So all put together, they have all close to INR 250 crores impact on these multiple events which has happened. So INR 250 crores to INR 300 crores I would say impact on those.
This is primarily the impact related to the nickel and not the other impact on the freight, which was additional?
No, it's all inclusive. I said, the freight, it include the freight. The lower exports on our targeted market everything put together.
The major impact was because of nickel and lesser on the freight reason.
And the reason, the nickel had major impact was basically in the first 2, 3 quarters, basically, we are holding to the extra nickel inventory which had been liquidated in Q4, and that is the reason the impact gets looked in the Q4. Is that the right understanding?
No, not that. Not at all understanding is completely wrong. We don't at least stock.
No, I understand that if nickel is falling during the first 9 months. Why do we see the higher impact in the fourth quarter that I'm not able to sort of understand?
Okay. Let me try to explain on this basically. What happens is that -- so last quarter, actually, we should have in Q3, we should have seen the impact. But Q3, we actually sold -- if you see our volumes, we actually restricted our volumes in that pressure. We had a plant shutdown last quarter. So actually, we had -- volumes are on our side that all that part.
Then suddenly, at the end of quarter 3, the Red Sea crisis happened, until that time exports were actually going in, which I would not say very good, but at least the right trajectory.
Immediately after the Red Sea crisis, two things have happened. One is that our current export order, we have to only pay the higher freight and even the new order we didn't -- start seeing those types of EBITDA margins on the new order.
So we actually stopped booking those kind of orders in our books in Q4, which are reflected in Q4. So when you are pushing the quantity, see as a practice we first absorb the premium and high-end Indian markets like auto, railway, which will continue to absorb and we try keep our higher share of wallet in those markets.
And then balance remains in -- between -- the play between the export market as well as on the other domestic market -- other domestic segment. So when your export markets are not doing very good. So obviously, then you have to play with the other domestic segment, which actually brings down the blended EBITDA.
So it's a combination of it's really not a pure math because we don't hold any inventory. We just hold the inventory which just require to support our sourcing time, manufacturing time and delivery time.
So that's the inventory which we have been running, and that's why we moved on a consistent basis.
And two things I would like to add, why you seeing Q4 as a bigger impact because the sharpest decline had happened in nickel was towards Q3. So that is why that impact we're seeing in Q4. That is one thing.
And second is knowing that these impact were to come, we as the company took a decision and we need to push volumes. We've just invested last year in expanding on [indiscernible] capacity and to make these machines robust, we have to push volumes. We have to do better than the rated capacity production.
So if you go on push volumes, the plant will never get ready at all in a robust manner. So that's why looking at Q3 because the net sales volume, we want to give the confidence to the market that there is more than enough demand in our country where Jindal can cater. So let push to volumes, let's push all our manufacturing facilities, capabilities to get ready for the good demand that we have foreseen coming up.
In terms of sort of understanding further the impact, so the Red Sea disruption still continues, the impact on the fighting to Q1 as well as the export market has not picked up that well. So how much this will weigh on the Q1 margin?
So exports are going to remain under pressure because the freight cost is still high, and therefore, the export EBITDA margins are not looking that great which we would have expected. So, obviously, we'll continue to push our volumes in the domestic market.
But concerning all this thing, I think if you look at a full year basis, we are reiterating our guidance of 20% volume growth with an EBITDA margin of INR 18,000 to INR 20,000.
So you have to look at in a more longer-term view, I think at this stage, we are just reiterating those items. And Q1 is expected to be better than...
[indiscernible] it could be weaker, but over the period, basically -- this would basically ultimately be able to...
No Q1 is expected to be better than Q4.
Q1 is going to be better because even in the export market, one is that the stabilization has happened because at that time, the Q3 when the Red Sea happened, we were having orders which we had to serve. [indiscernible] the higher ocean freight but now the situation is more balanced comparatively, but that is why the impact of the Red Sea would be lower in Q1.
Understood, sir. One more question, if I can squeeze in about the expansion. We had sort of planned for a next greenfield site to go beyond sort of looking at the volume beyond '28, '29. So this expansion allows us probably to sort of extend the growth runway to FY '28 or FY '29.
And typically, your greenfield site requires 3 to 4 years of advanced planning. So when do you think you would be again starting to look at the...
We started. Already work is happening. Already a lot of discussions are going on. But like as a company, like you see, once we are ready, once we ourselves are confident that this is the best time forward, then only I will come with announcement.
So absolutely, like you're saying we have this gestation period, which is why we are also cognizant of that and already work has started. But we have enough to do right now to focus on these acquisitions and expansion that we announced. Until then a separate team is already working on next growth phase.
And also the very fact that we have invested in Indonesia for this reason only, as you said that it takes some time for the greenfield. So for the midterm, our requirements and to cater, we have gone for the investment in Indonesia, which is a very quick plug-and-play kind of a model over there. And as we have already announced that within 2 years that plant will become operational.
[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Ritwik Sheth from One Up Financials.
Yes. Sir, a few questions from my end. Firstly, on the CapEx that we are doing on Chromeni, it's a INR 6 lakh tonne CR. So is this plant operational? And if not, then when do we expect this to get operational? And what is the road map for this plan?
So this plant is not operational. This plant was closed somewhere in the middle of 2020 and since then it is closed. But we hope that within 6 months' time, we should make it operational.
Okay. And so this will coincide with ramp-up of 6 lakh tonnes will coincide with the Indonesia JV upstream capacity. Is that the right understanding?
No, this is going to come before. But -- so this will be coming from our existing...
Chromeni acquisition is also from the strategy to increase our cold rolling capacity buildup. So that is the main reason why as a company also we have less cold rolling with this acquisition, we are able to increase our cold rolling output.
Acquisition and put together the brownfield which we are doing in Odisha, we will be able to increase our downstream cold roll facility to above 65%, which are currently below 50%.
Right. So currently, 1.4-odd million tonne of downstream will go towards 3 million tonnes, is that the right understanding after 2 years?
What was your question?
So the downstream capacity of close to 1.4 million tonnes currently will be close to 3 million tonnes in the next 2 years with Chromeni, Rabirun and brownfield that we're doing at [indiscernible].
Not exactly, I mean if you are combining everything then maybe, but that is not the way we look at it actually. So maybe there's a bit of a difference in understanding the question I'm feeling. Because Rabi -- now if you talk about Rabirun it is totally a different product as compared to what Chromeni is going to make. So that's why maybe I'm not understanding the question per se.
Okay. So to put it in another way, what can be the EBITDA.
Can I request you to rejoin the for a follow-up question.
Yes. At least one follow-up on this then I'm done. Sir, on this Chromeni, Rabirun, what is the kind of margins that we will make on these cold roll.
Again, that's why it's a very different product mix. It is not the same product mix that I can give you an answer. Rabirun focus is more on Pipe & Tube segment and Chromeni is a cold rolling unit. So from cold rolling side, it is clearly [indiscernible] guiding INR 18,000 to INR 20,000 for the full year. That is Chromeni is also part of that. Whenever it starts.
But for Rabirun Pipe & Tube is a different way. We don't consider that in this INR 18,000 to INR 20,000 EBITDA. That is something additional that we are talking about.
I just, I think more clarity to understand the different downstream products that will give you a better understanding.
The next question is from the line of Rohan Vora from Envision Capital.
So my first question was when we are saying that we're guiding INR 18,000 to INR 20,000 EBITDA per tonne. So this is excluding the JUSL benefit that would be in addition to this INR 18,000 to INR 20,000 am I right?
Yes.
Understood. For the Q4 what will be the benefit from the JUSL EBITDA, absolute EBITDA, if you can just give me that number.
You mean to what is EBITDA for JUSL Limited FY '24 overall basis, we have done?
For Q4.
Q4 was INR 178 crores.
Got it. Got it. And if can I squeeze just one more question. I would like to know [indiscernible] how you see the export market improving throughout the year and give us a better marking for the INR 18,000, INR 20,000 EBITDA per tonne that would be very helpful.
See. The first full year export market, it's the kind of geopolitical situation and what's going on, it's difficult to predict. We can probably say our key export markets are not to our liking at this stage in terms of the demand uptick, though we are seeing some pockets, some demand is picking up. But obviously, the export market picks up at the end of this fiscal -- say in H2, surely we can do actually much better, which we have proven in the past also.
The next question is from the line of Anupam Gupta from IIFL Securities Limited.
Couple of questions. Firstly, if you can just break up the FY '25 CapEx, which you said INR 4,800 crores. If you I am break it up by project that will give a better picture?
Okay. So overall -- you mean to only the FY '25 number, right? Out of the [indiscernible] right? So around what we have said is that the Chromeni acquisition will go upfront in this year, which include the shareholder loan of INR 1,340 crores total outflow of INR 1,340 crores. The Indonesian SMS facilities with the joint venture, the outflow in this year is expected to be close to, I'm giving the number in Rupees equivalent because these are all dollar payments, so around INR 570 crores and between HRAC and CRAC expansion, which we have announced in [indiscernible], close to almost INR 650 crores to INR 700 crores will be the outflow during this financial year.
Now then there are other infrastructure, RMHS facilities, [indiscernible] other CapEx, which we have announced, that will be close to INR 600 crores in [indiscernible]. Then there is a -- we are doing some ESR and other related CapEx which is there, which is around INR 250 crores. And then various ESG and renewables fund, that would be close to INR 270 crores of the CapEx.
And then there would be a restart and revamp CapEx for -- between Rabirun, Rathi and Chromeni, which is expected to be around INR 275 crores.
And we have a spillover CapEx from the previous year, which is close to INR 775 crores. So all put together between INR 4,700 crores to INR 4,800 crores outflow is expected in this year.
This does not include maintenance CapEx right? And what was the quantum for maintenance CapEx the regular one.
Typically, INR 500 crores what we have been maintaining, I think that's what the maintenance CapEx will be there in the figure also.
So overall should be INR 5,300 number, right, including maintenance?
Right.
Okay. And sir, second question is on this INR 18,000 to INR 19,000, which we do. So now that will source material and process material in different locations. So, let's say that I'm taking [indiscernible] from Indonesia and getting it to [indiscernible] and then moving it to Mundra for final processing. Can you broadly give a breakup of let's say if I am making INR 18,000, INR 19,000 overall, what is the breakup between the 3 facility abroad there.
No, we will not be to and we would not like to share that kind of breakup also.
Because see -- I think the way you should look at it is all the balancing and it's a very...
No, we cannot. It is our whatever trade secret [indiscernible] our production methodology. And we cannot give a break up of where, what costing is coming out.
In general, sir, let's say, if I just take Chromeni, what will the CR line mean as EBITDA. I'm not asking if you don't give a break up. Just a simple...
That is why we gave blended EBITDA rate. We don't want anybody of our competitors or anyone else to know these numbers. That is why I don't want to. Otherwise, I have no problem at all, that's why we give a blended rate of INR 18,000 to INR 20,000.
So sir, why I ask this question is, as long as you were owning 100% of everything, it was fine with us taking INR 19,000 per tonne EBITDA [indiscernible] sort of valuation [indiscernible]. Now that you own varying percentages in various stuffs, from valuation purposes we'll need some clarity on this aspect. So that's why this question came up.
A little more clarity you have also given. So I think we can take this question off-line then. I will ask my team to discuss because that gives a strategy where you want it. And as I mentioned, our target and our wish is to own 100% of Chromeni.
So already discussions are on and we would hope and would like to close it as soon as possible. So definitely, we want to own 100%. But to answer your question, I'll ask our IR team to take it up with you separately offline.
[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Tushar Chaudhari from Prabhudas Private Limited.
So looking at the current investments happening in Indonesia, nickel and as well as nickel projects. What is your outlook on nickel prices? So the -- let's say, medium term, not in the near term. Near term is probably we have seen the uptick because of [indiscernible] ban But let's say, in..
There are a lot of factors that govern the nickel market, especially now with EV battery or net nickel consumption in EV battery. So it's a very dynamic situation. That is why we work on a natural hedge. We don't want to take any positions. We don't want to take these kind of calls. We will continue to work on an natural hedge.
So nickel price is something that we really want to keep reducing it as a factor -- so -- and to give you a prediction per se, it's very difficult. I don't think so anyone in the global market will be able to give you a prediction on medium-term nickel prices.
Okay. And sir, second one was on NPI. I think you've said NPI, we will start. I missed that portion. We will start production from second quarter of FY '25.
Second quarter.
Q2 of this year '25.
The next question is from the line of Ritesh Shah from Investec.
Can you please detail the CapEx breakup for FY '26 as well?
So FY '26 between Odhisa HRA and CR capacity is close to, say, INR 700 crores to INR 800 crores, depending on obviously some timing measures overall SMS of Indonesia will be around INR 150 crores. And the other CapEx of the [indiscernible] of infrastructure and other augmentation will be close to between INR 250 crores to INR 300 crores. And on ESG renewables, the residual CapEx will be around INR 25 crores to INR 48 crores.
So that's the main CapEx over the next year. So overall, we are expecting that what CapEx we are outlined right now close to around INR 1,200 to say INR 1,300 crores of the CapEx next year, in FY '26.
Sure. That's useful. And on the debt maturity profile, if you could give some broader numbers for '25, '26, '27?
See, I can share that debt maturity profile. But I can tell you, I think most of our debt are currently on an average tenure. We have actually refinanced both of our debt. And we have actually increased the balance sheet strength by repaying the shorter-term debt. And with the same debt we have actually now refinanced most of the CapEx last year.
That is the reason you will see our net debt declining. So though -- so the way we have created a space for our CapEx is that by repaying the shorter term loans, reducing the liability for the repayments while not increasing the debt. So broadly now it's almost 4.5 to 5 years on average maturity. I can share you the year-wise profile. But again, it's also in the process, we are further refinancing some of the debt in the process of refinancing some debt.
The next question is from the line of [indiscernible] from Niveshaay Investment Advisory.
I had this question regarding the China dumping products in India. So is the -- scenario still in place in Q1 and FY '25 as well?
Yes. This China dumping has continued. And though we are parallelly continuously taking with the government that issue, but the fact remains that the dumping has continued.
In fact, our Q4, the Chinese imports in the country has increased by 24% -- 20% compared to Q3. So it's actually becoming very alarming at this stage on the China side.
So as you already mentioned, are we expecting any support from the Indian government.
So the dialogue is always on, and we always expect that something positive should come out, but immediately, in the short term, I don't see anything, maybe in the medium term, some relief could come, but nothing to really mention at the moment.
As always I mentioned, we as an organization are not going to depend on government duty coming or not coming. Whatever guidance we gave which is despite any of this. If the external factors support the company, we will definitely do much better. But this time external factors did not support us. So the due support we get we can do much better.
The measures also largely helps the MSME manufacturing ecosystem, which is very critical for -- to develop the manufacturing ecosystem. Otherwise, for us larger players because since we have access to the export market premium players. I think for us, it's -- all the government support will help all the MSME sector more.
Next question is from the line of Kunal Kothari from Centrum Broking.
For JUSL what was the volume in quarter 4 and FY '24, can you please share?
JUSL volumes?
It is INR 454,000 is the quantity that [indiscernible] has been done by the JUSL for JUSL for the full year -- for the quarter 4.
And for the full year, sir?
It is INR 1.7 million.
Okay. Secondly -- sir, my second question in regard to overall raw material costs. Can you share the breakup of the raw material costs we are having and with overall CapEx, what we are doing with the NCI bringing in and all the other CapEx as well, how are raw material costs will -- will it help in decrease in the overall raw material cost?
And also like with the change in the overall sourcing mix, it will reduce the vulnerability towards the fluctuations in the commodity prices. Can you help it to understand it better?
Kunal. if I can request because this is a very long discussion. This is actually understanding the fundamentals of our investments. And over a analyst call, it will not -- we will not be able to explain like that.
So it's definitely you like some clarity in this. We are more than happy to share, but I would request our IR -- you take it up with our IR team, and they'll give you the clarity.
But you asked long questions and it's not a 1 or 2 line answers.
Got it. Sure. So I will take the...
Please take it out. We definitely may be more than happy because we are very confident in all these things that you have done. So we'll be more than happy to share.
The next question is from the line of Ritwik Sheth from One Up Financials.
Sir, one question on the Indonesia JV. So do we have any right of refusal first [indiscernible] on the 1.2 million tonne and anything on that?
Yes, yes, we have. So we have our right of first refusal of 1.2 million tonnes.
Full offtake, it is for us to decide if we want to take 100% output, 20%, 50%, it is totally our asset if I can say, yes.
Right. Right. And the operations will be done by the JV partner, right?
Yes. Absolutely.
Okay. And just hypothetically, if the government puts an import duty for imports of stainless steel. So will this material that we get from Indonesia will also be taxed? Or how will it work? Just wanted to understand that?
So if you look at it from the Indian point of view, we see for producing a stainless steel nickel is a must as a raw material. And in India, nickel, okay, globally, stainless steel is produced either using the stainless steel scrap or the NPI. So more than 50% is being used as the NPI as a source for nickel.
Now in India, whether -- if you look at stainless steel scrap that is not available, NPI or nickel or anything of that source is also not available. So we see a very less possibility of this happening from the Indian government side.
So chances are very less because practically, this is kind of a raw material that we have bringing in like Mr. Khulbe saying, either we can bring it in a scrap format or an NPI format or in a slack format also.
So that is why we feel that it's unlikely the government should put. But if there is, for any reason, some duties imposed, then we already have it in our contract with our partners of how this offtakes will be sold globally then.
Okay. Got it. And just one last question. So last year, we spent out the dividend payout policy that gradually will take it up to 20%. So this year, it's similar to last year at 10%. So any comments on that, how do we plan to take it towards 20% in say next one year or 2 years?
So the policy remains as it is what we described is that since right now we actually, we are seeing all the CapEx coming up, so we'll have to optimize the shareholder returns. So I think the way you should look at it.
I think we believe that the investment and these will actually be much value-enhancing for the shareholder perspective and from the business perspective.
So it's all about -- it's not that 100% dividend will be more return, beneficial return than the investing in the business. It is always a balance sales, for our CapEx allocation policy. We always outline the three things, which include enhancing in the growth CapEx, and also the dividend as one of the part.
So we are -- the investment which we are doing has a very high -- good ROE and payback period, so which should be overall revenue enhancement for the all the stakeholder perspective.
As this was the last question for the day. I now hand the conference over to the management for closing comments. Over to you, sir.
Thank you so much. One other point I would like to reiterate before my closing remarks, is that despite this dip in EBITDA in Q4, if you see for the full year, we guided as we achieved between INR 18,000 to INR 20,000 and we delivered on that.
So that is something that speaks about the company's fundamentals and our commitment as we always try to adhere to.
And again, I would like to also thank everyone for attending this call. We continue to remain extremely bullish on the Indian market, while we aim to maintain our leadership position and ensure sustainability in sourcing, processes and products.
I hope that we have been able to answer all your questions in a satisfactory manner. And as mentioned also, should you need any further clarifications, we're more than happy to -- for you to get in touch with our Investor Relations team, and we'll be answering all of them.
So thank you once again for attending the call, and hope to see everyone soon physically as well.
Thank you. On behalf of IIFL Securities Limited, this conference call. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.