Vodafone Idea Ltd
NSE:IDEA
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Earnings Call Analysis
Q2-2025 Analysis
Vodafone Idea Ltd
Vodafone Idea Limited (VIL) reported revenues of INR 109.3 billion for the quarter ending September 30, 2024, marking a 4% increase from the previous quarter. The growth in customer revenues was even more impressive at 5.6%, attributed largely to price increases effective from July 4, 2024. However, the company is experiencing a decline in its subscriber base despite the hike in Average Revenue Per User (ARPU), which saw a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.8%. The overall wireless broadband subscriber base has grown significantly, supporting an 8% increase in the market, yet VIL continues to see customer losses and seeks strategies to reverse this trend.
The company achieved an EBITDA of INR 23.2 billion (excluding Ind AS 116), representing an improvement of 10.5% quarter-on-quarter, leading to the highest EBITDA since the merger. The EBITDA margin also improved to 21.3%. With a focus on capital spending, VIL invested INR 13.6 billion in Q2 FY '25 and anticipates spending a total of INR 80 billion in H2 FY '25 to expand its 4G network capacity significantly, increasing coverage by 22 million. This swift expansion reflects VIL's commitment to leverage significant growth opportunities in the Indian telecom market.
Despite the positive growth in revenues and expansion efforts, VIL faces considerable challenges. The loss of subscribers remains a critical issue as customer churn continues post-tariff increase. The management expressed optimism about turning the subscriber loss around by the end of FY '25, contingent upon the successful execution of their CapEx plans. Additionally, the company's debt situation remains a concern with a reported loss of INR 71.8 billion despite a reduction in bank debt from INR 78.3 billion to INR 32.7 billion year-on-year. The looming issue of AGR liabilities, totaling INR 703.2 billion, poses significant operational pressure.
In response to the government's recent dismissal of a curative petition regarding Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR), VIL's leadership is actively engaging with the government for potential relief measures. The management emphasizes that ongoing discussions are aimed at ensuring a competitive telecom industry in India, maintaining three key players. The company believes that although the Supreme Court ruling was unfavorable, it still has grounds for favorable outcomes through dialogue with governmental authorities.
Looking ahead, VIL is focusing on further tariff rationalizations to improve revenue cycles and restore positive growth in subscriber numbers. The adjustments in their pricing strategy reflect attempts to balance affordability with profitability, emphasizing that those who consume more data should contribute fairly to the revenue. They anticipate that advancements and rollouts in 5G technology will create new monetization opportunities that could benefit both the company and its consumers. The management remains optimistic about the long-term transformation and competitive positioning of VIL in the evolving telecom landscape.
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Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. This is Dorvin, the moderator for your conference call. Welcome to the Vodafone Idea Limited Earnings Conference Call for the Quarter 2 FY '25. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded.
We have with us today Mr. Akshaya Moondra, CEO of Vodafone Idea Limited; and Mr. Murthy GVAS, CFO of Vodafone Idea Limited, along with other key members of the senior management on this call. I want to thank the management team on behalf of all participants for taking valuable time to be with us. Given that the senior management is on this conference call, participants are requested to focus on key strategic and important questions to make sure that we make good use of the senior management's time.
I must remind you that the discussions on today's call may include certain forward-looking statements and must be viewed, therefore, in conjunction with the risks that the company faces.
With this, I now hand the conference over to Mr. Akshaya Moondra. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
A very warm welcome to all participants to this earnings call. Yesterday, our Board of Directors adopted the unaudited results for the quarter ending September 30, 2024. All the results-related documents are available on the website, and I hope you had a chance to go through the same. Let me provide key highlights for the quarter and insights on our strategic initiatives. Post this, I will hand over to Murthy to share details on the company's financial performance.
Before I move on to company-specific performance, let me share some thoughts on Indian telecom market and growth opportunities. In India, the need for connectivity is constantly increasing across sections of society, whether we look at these sections in different income brackets or age brackets. The government's Digital India program aimed at transforming India into a digitally empowered society has been a significant catalyst for telecom growth. The availability of low-cost smartphones has also significantly boosted telecom sector growth. The wireless broadband subscriber base has increased by 66 million between August 2023 and August 2024, a growth of around 8% However, the overall broadband-tele business still remains below 65% and offers large opportunities.
Indian wireless sector is at a crucial juncture. While on one side, large investments are required to support the emergence of new technologies and to support explosive data growth. On the other side, affordability of tariffs should be maintained to ensure connectivity to all sections of the society. This is possible when customers who are using more will pay more to enable the industry to generate reasonable ROCE on the large investments it has made. Hence, further tariff rationalization is needed for the industry to recover its cost of capital.
Let me now talk about our strategic initiatives. Our first strategic initiative is our focused investment approach. Our CapEx investments are gaining momentum post fundraise. And in Q2 FY '25, we invested INR 13.6 billion. We expect CapEx spends of INR 80 billion in H2 FY '25. We have completed our quick win CapEx, which aimed at capitalizing on the low-hanging fruits, while we were working towards closing our long-term contracts during the quarter. Resultantly, our 4G data capacity has increased by approximately 14% and 4G population coverage increased by approximately 22 million from INR 1.03 billion to INR 1.05 billion over the last 6 months.
During the quarter, we added almost 42,000 4G sites, which is the largest ever addition of 4G sites in the company in a quarter. We did significant network enhancement by deploying 4G on sub-gigahertz 900 band across approximately 20,500 sites, including site expansion on recently acquired 900 megahertz spectrum in some circles, thereby offering superior indoor network experience has also increased coverage. We also added approximately 21,200 sites in the 1,800 megahertz and 2,100 megahertz bands, mainly to increase the network capacity, enabling customers to experience faster data speeds on Vi GIGAnet network. As a result, we have witnessed improvement in 4G data speeds by as much as 18% and consequent improvement in customer experience in the geographies where these rollouts have been completed.
We are working on launching our 5G services, and we are committed to providing the best experience to our customers on whichever location and technology we are operating in. This commitment to customer experience is clearly reflected in the latest report from Opensignal on 4G network experience, where we have emerged as the best 4G network amongst 4G users, outrightly winning across all 6 experience categories in 4G nationally. These 6 categories are best download speeds, best upload speeds, best video experience, best live video experience, best games experience and best voice app experience. This means we 4G users don't just enjoy the fastest 4G speed, but also experience an overall superior quality of experience of everything they do online, whether it's watching videos, live streaming, playing online games or voice app calling.
On the back of the extensive network expansion and upgrade, we rolled out one of India's most hyperlocal campaigns to make consumers aware about the marked improvement that they'll experience with our network. At the cost of repetition, I'm pleased to share that in September, we concluded deals worth about INR 300 billion or USD 3.6 billion with the 3 global partners, namely Nokia, Ericsson and Samsung for supply of network equipment over a period of 3 years. This is one of the key steps towards the rollout of the company's transformative 3-year CapEx plan of INR 500 billion to INR 550 billion. Post the conclusion of this mega deal, deployment has started in October 2024, and the company has kickstarted its CapEx cycle. The 4G expansion is in progress, and our target is to achieve 4G population coverage of 1.1 billion by March 2025 and 1.2 billion by September 2025. The rollout of 5G in key geographies will start in Q4 FY '25.
Moving on to market initiatives. Our recent tariff increase has aided our increase in ARPU as well as revenue growth. It will take a couple of quarters to witness the full impact of the tariff increase on ARPU and revenue. I would like to highlight that in addition to the blended ARPU in view of the growing volume of M2M SIMs, we have disclosed our customer ARPU ex M2M separately for this quarter. The difference between the 2 ARPUs is on account of M2M subscribers and revenues. Our customer ARPU ex M2M has increased by 7.8% quarter-on-quarter. There's no tariff increase in the enterprise postpaid segment as well as M2M tariffs during the quarter.
For postpaid, part of the price increase takes time to reflect in ARPU as price increase can be done only after 6 months for new postpaid customers. And for existing postpaid customers, the impact of price increase is after 1 month notice. We registered a loss of 5.1 million subscribers with increased port-outs to one operator, which has not participated in the tariff hike. We have also seen a slight dip in our 4G, 5G subscribers. However, basis the latest MNP data available till October, port-outs to this operator are declining post August. I'm pleased to report that in the postpaid segment, we have been able to increase our customer base on quarter-on-quarter as well as year-on-year basis. While a larger part of this increase is from M2M segment, we have seen consistent increase in retail postpaid customers over the last 1 year as we are providing optimum range of feature-rich offerings to meet the diverse needs of postpaid customers.
We offer a range of unmatched benefits to prepaid as well as postpaid customers like offering night free data and weekend data rollover with our Hero Unlimited plans for prepaid customers and a unique choose your benefit option under Vi Max plans for our postpaid customers. We have received good response from Vi Guarantee program in the prepaid segment, a unique offer that provides 130 GB of additional data to all 5G and new 4G handset users. We also refreshed the offerings for our REDX plan in postpaid, which at a monthly rental of INR 1,201 offers unlimited data for non-stop survey, streaming and connectivity in addition to complementary offers like subscription to Netflix, Amazon Prime, Disney Hotstar, SonyLIV Premium, Sun NXT, EaseMyTrip Benefits, Airport Lounge Access, 7-day international roaming pack, 3-month membership of Swiggy One, along with priority customer service across all Vi touch points.
Also, we offer the most comprehensive international roaming proposition to our customers, recognizing that different customers have different needs. Vi is the only operator in the country to offer unlimited packs across a vast expanse of 29 countries that contributes to 70% of the international roaming traffic. Our brand Vi continues to garner good reception, building brand affinity across all customer segments in the country. Our brand continued to get more recognition and accolades. We won at the prestigious London International Awards, the Asia Pacific and the SAMMIE Awards for the Human Network Testing Network campaign with the Dabbawalas along with winning at Cannes Lion Awards, Spikes Asia, D&AD Awards. We won the social -- Best Social Media Brand [ Telkom ] and for the Be Someone's We campaign at SAMMIE Awards 2024. Our Dabbawalas campaign, Be Someone's’ We campaign and Postpaid Choose Your Benefits have won multiple applauds at the ETBrandEquity Shark Awards, DigiPlus Awards, e4m India Marketing Awards and FX Brand Stories Awards.
Now moving on to business services. Our core strength also includes business services and enterprise sector, reinforced by our robust relationships with enterprise clients and diverse global expertise of the Vodafone Group. We are transforming our offerings from a telco into a techco, significantly expanding our enterprise solutions beyond our core connectivity offerings. This transformation includes advanced offerings such as hybrid SD-WAN, SIP, IoT, industrial IoT and cloud services. We continue to build the momentum by not only broadening our service portfolio, but also actively collaborating with strategic partners to enhance the relevance and impact of our solutions for enterprise clients.
We joined hands with digital payments giant PayU India to offer customized digital payment solutions to MSMEs. Under this partnership, digital solutions, including payment solutions, customized offers engine, buy-now-pay-later options and seamless WhatsApp integration are offered. We also entered into a partnership with U.S.-based Genesys to transform contact center operations and strengthen customer engagement and services. This collaboration marks Vi business' entry into Contact-Center-as-a-Service that is the CCaaS sector. We have built a strategic partnership with Infinity Labs Limited to introduce Make-in-India SD-WAN solution as part of hybrid SD-WAN portfolio. The collaboration enhances the existing SD-WAN portfolio by integrating advanced AI-based security features, offering Indian enterprises a robust defense against the growing threat of cyber attacks and demonstrating our commitment to offer indigenous technology and nurture.
On the IoT front, all our enterprise IoT customers have been migrated to IoT Smart Central, a comprehensive connectivity management platform that manages SIM life cycles, diagnostics and billing needs, all from a single interface, addressing the evolving demands of the IoT market. Additionally, our IoT Labs, which serves as an ecosystem orchestrator aimed at creating an interoperable and standard IoT environment in the country saw a lot of traction in the market with around 20 certificates issued to various IoT partners.
Vi Business is also at the forefront of building cybersecurity, empowering organizations to thrive with confidence. This service gives access to robust threat detection measures like proactive monitoring and rapid response capabilities to identify and mitigate risks before they escalate. End-to-end protection through a holistic approach that secures infrastructure applications and user data access across platforms. Expert guidance by a team of cybersecurity specialists who tailor solutions that meet unique demands, ensuring compliance and resilience.
The next strategic initiative is driving partnerships and digital revenue streams. We aim to be a truly integrated digital services provider with a very clear objective of driving higher digital engagement with our consumers and driving monetization through specific streams or by participating in select digital categories. Our stated strategy around this has been to build this through strategic partnerships and bring out most of these offerings on the Vi App. Vi App is a multi-utility app that offers not just end-to-end telco account management, but also allows consumers to play over 100 games, participate in esports tournaments, pay utility bills, shop across categories like entertainment, food, shopping and travel or buy almost any OTT subscription, watch over 350 channels and more.
As discussed in the previous earnings call, we have launched Vi Movies & TV in an all-new avatar with all new apps for mobile on both Android and iOS as well as for TV across almost all major operating systems. It is an offering mainly for connected TV, wherein a subscriber can buy a subscription plan to get access to a host of their OTTs like Disney+ Hotstar, SonyLIV, ZEE5, Sun NXT, just like the way we have been buying DTH plans for TV channels. All Vi Movies & TV plans are also bundled with loads of data for allowing our consumers to watch freely without worrying about their data getting over. We have a very strong road map to build Vi Movies & TV as a destination of choice for our customers when it comes to their TV entertainment.
In addition to mobility and content to complete the converged offering, we have Vi One, a converged proposition offering broadband plus mobility plus OTT under one plan in 3 circles, Mumbai, Gujarat and Maharashtra. In July, we signed a strategic partnership with Asianet, a leading broadband player in Kerala and launched Vi One additionally across entire Kerala, which is one of Vi's leadership markets. We would be expanding this to other important markets as well going forward. This all-in-one bundle is designed to offer consumers exceptional value, convenience and a seamless experience, addressing the growing demand for high-speed Internet, reliable mobile connectivity and OTT entertainment.
I would like to reiterate that we will continue to have a disproportionate focus to build a digital ecosystem with our partners enabling a differentiated experience for Vi users, which will help us drive customer stickiness as well as provide incremental monetization opportunities.
Moving on to the topic of debt raise. We remain actively engaged with our lenders for tying up debt funding towards the execution of our long-term network expansion. I'm personally involved in these discussions along with the promoters. Post equity funding via FPO and preferential issuance to one promoter group, we have cash and bank balance of INR 136.2 billion, which is more than sufficient to execute our balanced CapEx plans for H2 FY '25 of INR 80 billion. On the AGR matter, the Honorable Supreme Court has dismissed the curative petition filed by telecom companies. We addressed this topic in detail in the investor call held on September 23. The government remains unequivocally supportive of 3 private player markets, and we are engaged with them in finding a solution.
Let me now talk about recently concluded India Mobile Congress. This year's IMC theme, 'The Future is Now' resonates deeply with our emphasis to deliver emerging technology-driven solutions that are solving today's challenges and designed to make an immediate impact. Our show theme 'Future is Live' highlighted how we are transforming the way business and people live, work and connect with advanced technologies. We showcased Industry 4.0 solutions by integrating 5G, IoT, AI and ML to connect human and nonhuman assets, digitize processes and enable real-time monitoring. This was demonstrated through a fabricated Smart Mine with multiple use cases depicting real-time monitoring of work sites, rapid response during emergencies, smart wearables and safety management.
We also executed ReadyForNext initiatives for MSMEs along with AI-powered hybrid SD-WAN, CPaaS and CCaaS solutions. We showcased our comprehensive mobile gaming platform, Vi Games through first-ever grassroots esports tournament called Vi Game to Fame. We had also set up a state-of-the-art 360-degree immersive dome that transports the audiences into a different world, bringing to life the power of technology that can make people experience places or events. Further, we had music bands performing live at the IMC, where some of the band members were at the Vi IMC booth and others were remotely connected over these low latency, high-speed network and created music in complete sync, showing how connectivity can enable the creators and the artists virtual ecosystem.
Our solutions showcased at the IMC were designed to make a real-world impact and reflect our commitment to bring the Future to Live now by creating a more connected, efficient world for all.
With that, I hand over to Murthy, who will share the financial highlights for the quarter.
Thank you, Akshaya. A warm welcome to each of you. The revenues for the quarter stood at INR 109.3 billion, a growth of 4% versus last quarter. More importantly, the customer revenues for the quarter grew by 5.6% versus last quarter, driven by price increases effective from July 4 this year. The EBITDA, excluding Ind AS 116 for the quarter was at INR 23.2 billion, improving by 10.5% on a quarter-on-quarter basis. This is the highest quarterly EBITDA since merger and the margin has improved to 21.3%. The reported EBITDA, including Ind AS 116 stood at INR 45.5 billion as compared to INR 42 billion in quarter 1 FY '25, a quarter-on-quarter growth of 8.2%. The reported EBITDA margin improved to 41.6%.
Further, depreciation and amortization expenses and net finance costs for the quarter were INR 54 billion and INR 63.1 billion, respectively. Excluding the impact of Ind AS 116, the depreciation and amortization expenses and net finance costs for the quarter were INR 39.4 billion and INR 51.1 billion, respectively. The finance costs for the previous quarter were lower due to the reversal effects arising out of the subsequent revenue share license fee judgment of Supreme Court and the reversal of interest provision basis of settlement with some vendors. Due to the above and due to the ForEx mark-to-market accrual impacts, the reported finance cost in this quarter is higher when compared to the previous quarter.
The PAT loss for this quarter stands at INR 71.8 billion. The debt from banks stood at INR 32.7 billion versus INR 78.3 billion at quarter 2 FY '24, a reduction of INR 45.8 billion during the last 1 year. The cash and bank balances stood at INR 136.2 billion as at September 30, 2024. The deferred spectrum obligations stood at INR 1,419.4 billion and the AGR liability at INR 703.2 billion, totaling to INR 2,122.6 billion as of September 30, 2024.
With this, I hand over the call back to Dorvin and open the floor for questions.
[Operator Instructions]
We have the first question from the line of Sanjesh Jain from ICICI Securities.
This quarter, we had this tariff increase. I agree that there was a decent ARPU growth of 7.6% quarter-on-quarter on the customer basis. But the subscriber continues to decline. When do you think that we will stop the customer losses? And by when do you think with this INR 80 billion of CapEx plan, we should be trending into a positive territory?
Thanks, Sanjesh, for your question. So I think as I had mentioned a little bit in my opening remarks that we had first incurred the quick win CapEx, which has given us a result of 14% increase in capacity and 22 million in coverage. But of course, that was just the start of quick win [ vacants ] which could be deployed quickly. And as you have yourself mentioned in the guidance we gave that we are looking at putting in a CapEx of about INR 80 billion in the second half of the year. Now it is difficult to predict a time line as to when this will start turning around in terms of loss of subscribers. But definitely, we can see that with the investments that we have made, some of the improvements at the areas where interventions have been made are obvious, although at this point of time, they do not convert to increase in revenues or reducing the loss of subscribers.
I think that as we make these investments, which then will be based on new supplies and all and the impact of that is more pronounced. And of course, with us coming out of some of the subscriber losses in the quarter which has gone by, which is also the impact of the tariff increase, my gut feel would be that by the end of this financial year, we should have turned around the trajectory. But this is just a kind of expectation. I don't think it is possible to give you an exact time line on when this could turn around. But our efforts is that now to start leveraging the benefit of the investments, which have been there on the ground for some time and also the larger investment, which is now going to come in the second half of the year.
Got it. Got it. And a related question there is that we did largest 4G expansion of 42,000 towers and decent amount of turn came in better coverage spectrum, which is 900. And we have lost 4G customer in this quarter. Now how does this carry with? Is it more of a SIM consolidation? Or you think there was initial move towards BSNL, which has stopped? How do you see this one?
So actually 2 things. One is as happens following any price increase, the overall number of subscribers do contract, which has also happened this time. I think this time, we've had an additional factor that a significant number of customers have gone to BSNL and they have been a beneficiary this time, which has not happened in the past. And that has a bit been also compounded by the seasonality factor because this quarter is seasonally a weak quarter. Now if we look at all those things, I would say that the impact of SIM consolidation, I've always maintained that with every price increase, I think the SIM consolidation, what is left to be consolidated is less and less. So that impact, although it is there, but it may not be as pronounced as it has been in the past.
However, the impact of BSNL has been there in this quarter. We have seen that impact reversing quite quickly from August to September to September to October and October to November. And I think in some ways, we are inching towards the position which was there before the tariff increase. But yes, some loss which has happened during this period will still take some time to unwind. And I think we believe it will happen based on the customer experience because there is definitely a differential in experience for a customer who is a high user of either data or voice.
So I would say that the quarter gone by represents a quarter, which is a normal impact post the tariff increase. And as you would have seen, if you just look at the delta of what the subscriber trend was Q4 to Q1. Everybody has seen a much more pronounced decline on those past trends in Q2. So this is across the board. And we do expect that some of these trends would start turning around with the seasonality coming back with some people who adjust their consumption or usage to the increased price points or basis the increased price temporarily before they come back to their original usage pattern. And of course, the impact of BSNL reducing as we go ahead. And so I think we should see a reversal of this trend, but it will take some time.
Okay. Got it. On a follow-up here, Akshaya, that we have not seen material difference in the usage pattern for the peers. which is the data growth, particularly while for us, the data growth and the data usage per subscriber has also fallen. I thought we have expanded the network that should have benefited us, right? What's this difference?
So I think one of the things is that it has reduced this quarter for everyone, you are saying that ours is more pronounced. And I think one of the major reasons for that is that as the consumption of data on 5G network increases as the number of people who are using 5G data on competitors' network is increasing, and there is a lot of free data available on 5G. One is that data is not subject to any limitation. You can use as much as you want. So the consumption will be higher compared to a normal usage. And secondly, as we know that for streaming, for the same kind of usage pattern, subscribers will see a higher level of consumption on 5G. So I would think that is the main reason for that difference. Otherwise, I cannot see any other reason why despite the decline being there for everyone or I mean, at least there is some impact on everyone. It is more pronounced for us.
Got it. Got it. And on the matters of waiver on BG and AGR resolution, the amounts which are coming for repayment in CY '25, where are we in discussion with the government on each of these 3 matters?
So I think as far as the amounts which are coming up for payment, there is no specific engagement in the sense that the reforms package already provides for some conversion to the extent there is a shortfall in our ability to pay. So I think there is no specific discussion because that is already provided for in the reforms package. As far as the support of the government on the AGR matter is concerned, as we have been mentioning, we had mentioned on the earlier call also that once the curative petition has been dismissed, we were looking at support or we have kind of engaged with the government to support because -- as I had mentioned in the past also, the curative petition was never taken up of merits. It was just rejected based on a technicality that it did not qualify for the criteria specified for curative petition.
So now we are engaged with the government. I think we've had multiple meetings, and we are quite hopeful that the government remains committed to having a competitive telecom industry. They are committed to having 3 competitive private players. And I believe they recognize that while the court has not provided any relief, the merits on which the curative petition was filed is good if there is merit on that ground. And we are engaged with the government to kind of provide a support because the court has not been able to -- or the court has decided not to admit the curative petition.
We have the next question from the line of Vivekanand Subbaraman from AMBIT Private Limited.
Extending Sanjesh's question on the BG waiver discussions, how important is it for you to secure a BG waiver or get legislative relief on the AGR amounts to raise debt funding? And from your vantage point, currently, how long do you think it will take for you to tap into debt funding and any more color you can provide on the debt fundraising, that will be great. So that's question one.
Secondly, last time, you had mentioned a certain impact in terms of percentage of tariff hike. I mean, the tariff hike percolating into a certain percentage ARPU increase. I believe it was 11% to 14%. Do you stand by that? Or is there any deviation after seeing the consumer behavior downgrades to -- or rather port outs to BSNL? And any time lines there in terms of recognizing the full benefits of the prior tariff hike or July tariff hike? And also thoughts on how we should think about subsequent tariff hikes plus correcting the tariff structure to get high data consumers to pay more money than the light data users?
Okay. So let me address your second question first. I think on the question of tariff hikes, I remember that we had indicated a certain range that our price increase was about, let's say, 16% on a blended basis between prepaid and postpaid. And what we have seen as an ARPU increase of 7.8% quarter-on-quarter. And we also indicate that this is an average growth of ARPU quarter-on-quarter. Our exit ARPU increase over the June quarter is more north of 10%. So really speaking, that is the extent to which price increase is realized. From that level to the fact that the revenue has grown less, that is a function of subscriber loss. So I think that is one part.
Another part also to understand is that if we try to see that the weighted average of the prepaid and postpaid price increase was, let's say, about 16%. And against that, we have seen an ARPU increase of 7.8%. This has 3 main -- the delta is around, let's say, 8%. And the major components of that delta is that some components of the overall revenue, there is no price increase. Some of the components which constitute the ARPU that we are reporting, which is the enterprise segment, the M2M segment, where there is also in some of the government segment, there is no price increase. So that is one part which is not contributing to the revenue or ARPU growth.
Secondly, as happens with such price increases is that some of the customers are sticking to the old price points and they have not upgraded their consumption by paying a higher amount. This thing happens more initially and some of the customers return back to their levels. So that is -- and third is that some customers, they are still not come to a point of renewal for the customers who are on longer validity. Some of the customers that bought long validity packs just before the -- between the price increase announcement and it became effective. And as you know, in postpaid base, this happens over a slightly prolonged period of time. So these are, I mean, broadly the reconciliation between the 16% theoretical price increase and the actual 8% ARPU increase, which we have seen.
To answer -- does that answer your second question? Then I'll go to the first one.
Sure. There are 2 follow-ups here. One, you said 16% blended price increase. So does it mean that by the end of fiscal '25, you will be 16% higher on ARPU versus the June '24 ARPU levels?
So let's say, about 3%, 3.5%, there is no increase of the segment where there is no price increase. So that will get discounted by about 16%, 17% from the 16% that we are talking about. That is the balanced target if everything was perfect. We are leaving aside the subscriber loss because that doesn't impact the ARPU. So the downgrades of consumption that we'll have to see how much of it comes back. Of course, the balance impact, which has not yet happened, that will happen. So the balance impact, which has not yet reflected, I think that will be a positive. Reversal from people who have downgraded their consumption, that will kind of be a little positive. And there will be a further trickle of the churn because of the tariff increase when some of these subscribers come up for renewal, that could be a negative. But the about 16% out of that about 3%, 3.5% where tariff increase has not happen at all, that will not be realized.
Okay. Fair enough. And just brief comments on how you look at the environment right now and when we can expect another tariff hike. And of course, the issue that you mentioned in the beginning of the call, the industry tariff structure being distorted and those users who heavily consume data aren't paying their fair share. How to think about these 2 things?
Let's say, I do not have a direct answer to this, although I do feel that as price increases have happened, and I think the way I described it is that one point of time, you could be a subscriber and keep on receiving incoming calls and all at a zero price, that minimum participation price has gone to a level of, let's say, INR 190, INR 200 for the industry, although there are some discounted pricing plans, but they are for a very few number of subscribers. As opposed to that, the higher ARPU customers who were, let's say, north of INR 2,000, INR 3,000, they are paying their needs can be fulfilled at INR 500.
So I think that is the basic premise that -- and I think going forward, while tariff increases are required and they will happen, I don't think there is too much of room to increase the tariff at the entry level. That then by implication means that the tariffs have to increase more at the higher consumption levels. So one of the way this will manifest itself is that probably you will see and which was also bit this time that at the entry level, the tariff increase was about 10%, whereas at the higher levels or higher price levels, it was more pronounced, let's say, in some cases, as much as 20%. So that differential was also reflected in the last price increase, and I think that differential will go and that will, in some way, take that principle, which I was talking about.
Secondly, I would say that once 5G consumption is increasing and 5G consumption starts getting metered and charged, that itself will provide some opportunities that higher consumption, you can charge higher. So this is a structural correction, cannot be done in a short period of time, will require the industry to think alike. But I believe this is the need of the time because it is quite clear that at the entry level, the room for price increase at this point of time is not very much. But definitely, the affordability and the ability to pay at higher levels of consumption exists. It is basically for the industry to rationalize that charging mechanism to bring it in line with what should -- what is true for any industry that you have a telescopic pricing, but as you use more and more, you are actually paying the differential is significant. It's not step-by-step pricing as we have today.
So shall I move on to your question?
The questions on the ARPU are addressed. If you can address my queries on debt fundraising, the linkage to BG waivers and legislative action on rationalizing the AGR amounts?
So I think there are 2 things. As far as the BG waiver is concerned, let's say that the government has already kind of done away with the requirements of guarantees for the future auctions. Also, the guarantees were returned for the earlier auctions, and they are kind of as per the regulation as it stands now, there is a reinstatement. So one of our representations to the government is that if it has been done away for future auctions, then why do we really need to keep it for the past auctions also? It should be done away with the rationale for doing away with the bank guarantees should be the same.
In reality, the way it impacts us is that we are seeking a certain facility from the banks. And if we are going to seek the bank guarantee facility, it will kind of reduce our ability to get debt funding. So it is very clear that bank guarantee is something which the banks themselves will not be very willing to offer. They are trying to get debt funding, which will go towards making investments, which will kind of help in improving our performance and then improving our cash generation. Bank guarantees will not have that result. So in the first place, the kind of bank guarantees that are being talked about, that is, I think, not possible to get.
And also the fact that it's not that against that spectrum, nothing has been paid, large amounts have been paid against the earlier auctions and there's a payment schedule. So everything taken into account together, I think bank guarantee is something where we have requested the government and we believe the rationale is understood, and it is an industry request also. It's not only VIL request. The entire industry has requested that the bank guarantees should be done away with. So I think that is where we are on the question of bank guarantees.
As far as the debt funding is concerned, as I said, that we have been engaged with the banks. Our promoters are also -- I mean, I, along with my promoters are engaged with the banks. Those discussions are on. Probably post the curative petition, everybody is kind of in a bit of a wait-and-watch situation to see that how things are evolving. And so I think these things will move together, the engagement with the government on AGR and banking discussions, although I must clarify, which I had done in my earlier call also, that any reduction in the AGR liability was not a part of our business plan submitted to the banks on the basis of which a TV report was done by an external agency and submitted to the banks. So it is not a part of this. But I think as any interested party, the lenders are also looking at what is happening on the AGR matter, although it was not a part of our business plan. So we are engaged, and I think we should be able to close on some clarity emerges as to what is happening on the AGR side.
Okay. Is there any plan B that you have in case the government isn't able to relent on the AGR front for whatever reason?
I think let's say the point is we are engaged with the government. I would not want to comment much on that. As I said, a conversion is already provided for in the reforms package. But our belief is that there was significant merit in what we had asked in the curative petition. And until now since the curative petition was in the courts, those merits we had not taken to the government because the expectation was that it would get addressed to the judicial route. Since that has not happened, we are engaging with the government. And I think rather than talking about plan B, our vision is that this needs to be addressed from -- just on a basis of fairness and what is right for the industry.
The next question is from the line of Saurabh Handa from Citigroup.
It's kind of just a follow-up on the previous question. So just on the bank funding, if the banks are actually seeking some sort of clarity on the AGR matter, then is it fair to assume that this process can take a while because the way I look at it, there is no real urgency at this point because your AGR dues start becoming payable only after whatever, 10, 11 months. In fact, even beyond that, the moratorium is in place until September.
March '26.
Yes, March '26 is the AGR, your spectrum payments start coming in before that. So I mean, so this thing can be a bit of a protracted issue. Is that a possibility? And the second thing is, I mean, if the TEV had already sort of given a clean chit even without a favorable resolution to the AGR matter, then why are things getting further delayed? And there have also been some public statements made by some financial institutions saying that we will not provide lending. So I mean, how does one view some of those? Is that -- is it that these banks are basically looking for something from the government? I mean just some further color would just help. And any sort of possible time lines? I know it's a hard one, but still.
So I can't give you a time line. I can only say that till the time this curative petition was dismissed, there was -- things are progressing as we had expected. The curative petition dismissal, I mean, there is a general sense or belief that if curative petition has been dismissed, is the government supportive or not. People try to put the 2 together, which is not the fact. But that is what the normal perception builds up. And I think everybody kind of is then -- it's not related as to what the government does on AGR, but I think they are also seeing that since the engagement is on, what is happening in that direction.
So I think it is not linked that what happens there and then basis that the bank funding will happen, and we are in discussion with the banks. But I think probably it will take a while to get some clarity on because post the curative dismissal, we have engaged with the government. We are also kind of waiting for some response and clarity on the subject. And I think it's a question of getting clarity and then how should the business be viewed? Is there some relief which is going to be there or no relief going to be there? Just some clarity, I think, will be helpful to take anything forward. So it is more about clarity rather than what happens with this.
Okay. So for now, I mean, given that you're well funded for at least your next year, 1.5 years of CapEx, so it's sort of just business as usual and these discussions with banks will be -- and the government will be sort of simultaneous.
Yes, these are simultaneous. And I think not that if we have funding available, we are not progressing fast on these. It is important that we close these matters as quickly as possible. And that is where, as I said, I'm myself engaged, the promoters are also engaged. And we should find a quick closure to this, not that if we don't need immediate funding because we have equity funding available for CapEx. That's not the basis of any actions that we need to take is all that I would say. It is being handled on top priority, and we should see progress coming in that direction also. But it's difficult to give a time line given the nature of these discussions.
Sure. And just my second question was on the conversion of dues to equity. Now I mean, I noticed that you've added this to your notes to accounts as well that this is permitted under the telecom relief package. Is this -- was this a requirement from the auditors? Or I mean, why has this actually come into the notes to account? Or is it just?
I mean just it's in the interest of disclosures, as you know, that given the fact that where our cash generation is today post the moratorium, which is then expiring in the next 12 months and all -- during all these things, you make this assessment. So it is an important thing. And I think given that the moratorium expires in the next 12 months, it was considered prudent to make this disclosure. So that disclosure has been made in notes to financial statements, but I think we have alluded on that point even on some of our earlier earnings calls in addressing those questions. So in terms of our communication, we have communicated that in the past also. But given that the moratorium expires in the next 12 months, we have also thought it prudent that it should be disclosed in the financial statements also.
Okay. So once the moratorium ends, is it fair to assume that, I mean, a default situation would be that the government converts dues to equity because it's something which has kind of already been approved by the cabinet in the past. So it won't really have to go through further rounds of government approvals, et cetera?
Yes. I mean anything -- any request, it will go through a process approval based on the guidelines provided. But I think it was approved by the cabinet in the past and has been publicly disclosed. So it doesn't need a cabinet approval is my understanding. But whatever internal departmental approvals are required for any request which comes from anyone within the framework, I think those approvals will be gone through. But the whole -- I mean, as I have kind of emphasized in the past that this was kind of expected that this will be required. And that is the reason when the reforms package was announced in 2021, they have provided it upfront that post the moratorium, which expired after 4 years. This will happen if there is a need. Otherwise, there was no need to put this in the reforms package for what would happen 4 years in advance. So definitely, that is the intent of the reforms package. And I think it will be -- conversion will happen to the extent of shortfall of payment. I mean, whatever we can pay and what is the requirement of payment.
We have the next question from the line of Gaurav Malhotra from Axis Capital.
I just had some follow-up questions on the bank guarantees. So one is that -- so what I heard is that the debt raise is somehow sort of connected to the bank guarantee issue to be resolved. That's one. And secondly, in terms of these bank guarantees obviously also have a cost associated. Is that cost meaningful from your perspective? And how much is the quantum of bank guarantees that you're talking about?
No, no. So I think the quantum of bank guarantees is disclosed in our financials, that is about INR 24,000 crores over a period of 1 year. So that is the first figure to be given. I think in terms of it is not dependent. I'm saying in our plan of things, we have not considered provision of bank guarantee as a part of our plan because from a bank's point of view, whether it is a bank guarantee or a debt funding, the facility has to come from the banks. If it is a bank guarantee, I think the bank guarantee commission is a nominal cost, but the main thing is it is an exposure for the banks. And if banks were to provide that facility, which will then not really benefit anything in terms of improvement in operations or cash generation, I don't think banks will be willing to provide the bank guarantee. They are happy to provide the debt funding because that is what will help in turning around the business. So I think in our plan of things, bank guarantee provision is not factored in at all. We have just considered debt funding.
And where are we in the process? Obviously, we read what the minister is also mentioning. But where are we in the -- in terms of trying to resolve this bank guarantee issue?
I think it is with the government. They have to decide. We have given them and made whatever representations we had to make. So whatever we had to do has been done, we are awaiting a final decision from the government.
We have the next question from the line of Vivekanand Subbaraman from AMBIT Private Limited.
I had a question on the proposal that the COAI and the industry participants had shared with the government on the big tech companies, especially those which account for disproportionate share of the network traffic to also be roped in to partially fund the CapEx that telcos are incurring to upgrade networks. My question is, how is the government thinking about this matter? And if you could give us some insights into the polarity of traffic that is currently there by, let's say, the top 2 and 3 digital gateways or ecosystems? And why you believe that this issue can perhaps lead to some alleviation of stress for the telecom industry?
I think what is the government's view on it, there have been engagements with the government, but I think what is the government's view on it, it is best for them to respond. I will not be able to give you any response there. Just give me a minute. So you're asking about the traffic quantum. So I think I will not be able to give you any data, but can you...
Rough numbers in terms of proportion.
I cannot give you any numbers, but I think YouTube is the largest consumer of data is my understanding. And then other OTT players would be large. I will not be able to give you any numbers there because that is somewhat confidential information. If it is available in public domain there and if there are agencies tracking it. But let's say, it's not a question of that -- I mean, large networks have been built. So it is not that the system is not capable of handling the traffic. So I think that is not a concern. The concern is that large investments are being made and the industry as such is subject to multiple things. So -- and there is also, I think this question came up that if you look at that there are -- there is a limit to which you can raise tariffs for priority services. You cannot have a differential tariff today that some services which are priority services, you have the current tariff, you can charge extra for services, which take up a lot of your network and the investments have to be large for that.
So I think there is a multiple layer of engagement. I don't think this is something where -- and this is not in India alone, this is global. So I would say that it is not something for which any result can be expected soon. But yes, we are engaging with the government and as is happening in many other countries, this is an evolving space, and we'll have to see what is the best way to solve for this situation. But it's not something that business is going on as usual. It is just a question of getting the right balance between how each one benefits from the investments that they are making. The concern that telecom operators have is that they are the ones who are making large investments in running that traffic without a commensurate return. And if that return has to come by raising the tariffs, then it also raises the tariff for essential services, which is something one would not want to do. And that is why how -- the question is how can these large traffic generators also participate in contributing to the investment which is being made without increasing the tariff for essential services very much.
This is helpful. Just one follow-up. Are all 3 -- are all industry participants aligned with you in this thinking? Or is there any difference of opinion among the industry participants?
I think you started by saying that this was a representation from COAI. So it is an industry issue. The larger the traffic, the larger is the impact. So we are running less traffic. So I think there's total alignment.
Ladies and gentlemen, we will take that as the last question for today. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Akshaya Moondra for closing comments. Over to you, sir.
Thank you, Dorvin. During 2024, the company has raised INR 240 billion of equity. In June spectrum auction, we acquired 50 megahertz of spectrum across low-band and mid-band spectrum in 11 circles. The tariff hike happened after a gap of more than 2 years, and we have seen its benefits and we'll continue to see the benefits in the coming quarters. However, as I mentioned earlier, considering the large investment requirements, industry will need further tariff rationalization to happen. The AGR curative petition dismissal was unexpected, but we continue to be engaged with the government to find a solution which can work for all stakeholders. This year is an important one for VIL as the company is taking critical steps in its transformation journey. We have kickstarted the investment cycle and are deploying the funds from the fundraise towards 4G coverage capacity and for 5G rollout.
These, along with the mega deal with equipment suppliers are all key steps that will place -- that will make VIL more competitive and ensure that the industry remains dynamic and competitive. With the continued support of the government, I'm confident that VIL will stage a smart turnaround to effectively participate in industry growth opportunities. So as I said, this is going to be a very important year for us. Many things have happened. We are on the right track with the investments being made, our rollout happening, the benefit of tariff increase coming our way. And I think with the continuing investment that we do, we will continue to see consistent improvement in performance. I would say we are on the right track.
Thank you all for joining this call, and have a good day.
Thank you. On behalf of Vodafone Idea Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you all for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.