Hindustan Zinc Ltd
NSE:HINDZINC
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Hindustan Zinc Ltd
Earnings Call Analysis
Q3-2024 Analysis
Hindustan Zinc Ltd
The notable story begins with an 8% sequential increase to INR 7,310 crores in revenue, courtesy of higher zinc prices and better volume, though a year-over-year comparison shows a slight dip of 7%. EBITDA followed suit with a 14% sequential rise, sitting pretty at INR 3,559 crores, yet feeling a 4% year-over-year pinch. Net profit too chirped in with a 17% sequential rally, reaching INR 2,028 crores, despite a slight 6% decline when compared to last year. Investors would be delighted to note that Hindustan Zinc lavished a generous dividend of INR 2,535 crores during this quarter, marking a strong commitment to shareholder value.
Operational efficiency paired with softer coal prices led to cost improvements—zinc's cost of production slid down to $1,095 per tonne, trimming 4% sequentially and a commendable 15% year-over-year. The aforementioned EBITDA and net profit figures are resting on these improved costs. The executive assurance that they'll hit the lower end of their cost guidance of $1,125 to $1,175, hints towards a strategic aim at a $1,000 cost design in the foreseeable future. Domestic coal usage, instrumental in keeping power costs under wraps, has seen a sophisticated boost. A shift to digest more domestic coal (up to 30-40%) yielded notable savings and a reflection of lowered production costs.
Despite global market turbulence, Hindustan Zinc managed to uplift its market share in India's private zinc market to a 7-quarter high of 79%. Looking ahead to Q4, the management appears unfazed, confident in their ability to meet or exceed their guidance with ease. Silver production is set to sparkle with a planned increment from the fumer project, promising an additional 30 tonnes by the end of Q4. The broader expectancy is to see this contribute to next year's tally, nudging the silver production north of 800 tonnes.
The financial stratagem has wielded a net debt tally to INR 360 crores, a testament to healthy cash flow optimism. The company has touted a staggering INR 6,900 crores in free cash flow post-expenses, deploying INR 5,500 crores to dividends and shaving off INR 1,400 crores from its financial obligations. The Q4 forecasts are radiant, predicting at least an INR 2,000 crores dent in debt. Investors might observe this as an act of prudence and foresight in capital allocation.
Predicting commodity prices in the post-COVID landscape has proven to be a Sisyphean task. With the Chinese stimuli making less of an impact, Europe's slack economic rebound, and the U.S facing inflationary woes despite growth, pricing projections are held close to the chest. The management's refrain from anticipating zinc and lead prices is a conservative stance, hoping prices to steady near current levels for another quarter. A strategic pivot emphasized more on bolstering domestic sales rather than exports, banking on India's solid economic performance relative to other economies.
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Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to Hindustan Zinc's Third Quarter and 9 Months FY 2024 Earnings Conference Call.
[Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Ms. Jhalak Rastogi, Associate Director, Investor Relations. Thank you, and over to you, ma'am.
Thank you, Nirav. Good afternoon, everyone, and a very happy New Year. I welcome you all to Hindustan Zinc's Third Quarter and 9 Months Earnings 31st December results briefing.
In this call, we will refer to Q3 FY '24 investor presentation available on our company's website. Please refer to the glossary and notes in the presentation for additional reference. Some of the information on this call may be forward-looking in nature and is covered by the safe harbor language on Slide #2 of the said presentation.
Today on the call, we have with us our CEO, Mr. Arun Misra; and our CFO, Mr. Sandeep Modi. Mr. Misra will begin with an update on business performance, while Mr. Modi will walk you through financial performance, after which we'll open the floor for questions.
I now request Mr. Misra to begin today's call. Over to you, sir.
Thank you, Jhalak. A very good afternoon to all of you, and I wish you and your families a happy New Year. Thank you for joining us today for the third quarter and 9 months FY '24 results briefing.
This quarter marked a noteworthy milestone for us as we celebrated remarkable achievement spanning across multiple facets of our business. Before delving into further details, I would like to initiate by addressing the crucial topic of safety. Our unwavering focus on safe operations, the dedication of our employees and our robust operational processes, coupled with consistent investment in safety measures and technology resulted in another quarter of fatality-free operations, making the fifth consecutive quarter with zero fatalities. Even as we look ahead, our commitment to safety remains resolute.
On this note, I'm happy to share that our all women mine rescue team took the limelight by securing the first place, outperforming 24 participating teams in the 52nd All India Mine Rescue Competition held in Telangana. Notably, our team stood out as the sole women squad in addition. It was a dual celebration as our own all boys team also achieved a commendable third place in the competition.
On our sustainability journey, the company ascends the S&P Global Corporate Sustainability Assessment leaderboard, claiming the highest spot with 238 companies in metals and mining sector in 2023. With a commendable score of 85 out of 100, we successfully climbed from 7 position to the top of the chart over the past 6 years, underscoring and reaffirming our state-first commitment to ESG initiatives.
Continuing on our decarbonization mission, we have forged strategic partnerships within the industry and commenced the deployment of electric and LNG vehicles in our operations. This series of strategic partnerships propelled us forward in our decarbonization journey, bringing us closer to achieving our net zero and GHG emission targets. On community development front, our holistic strategy and people-led institution-based approach to CSR endeavors have earned us recognition among top 10 CSR companies in India. A quick snapshot of developments made in the quarter are given on Page 4 for reference.
Moving on to the markets. Though the quarter started on weaker market sentiments, news of Chinese central government's additional investment on infrastructure helped improve the market. In the quarter, Chinese economic grew 4.9% year-on-year on the back of a rally in industrial production. The U.S. economy also demonstrated strength and resilience during the quarter, driven by robust customer spending and high service sector activity.
European economy in contrast has persistently struggled to regain strength. Further, the easing of inflationary pressure in some of the world's major economies also suggest that the global supply chain is returning to normal. The global manufacturing PMI dropped marginally from 49.2 in September to 49 in December, indicting a slight contraction in output. The S&P Global India Manufacturing PMI also fell from 57.5 in September to 54.9 in December.
Despite the decline, the December figure marked 30 months of the index remaining above 50, reflecting manufacturing expansion. Factory orders and output experienced a moderate yet notable rise accompanied by an enhanced business confidence in the upcoming year's outlook.
Zinc prices were marginally better this quarter despite the strengthening of U.S. dollar attributed to incidents such as suspension of Nyrstar's mid Tennessee mine, fire at the upcoming [ Kostenko ] mine, et cetera, pushing the prices above $2,600 per tonne level during the quarter before closing a monthly average of $2,500 per tonne in December.
While the global production has been stressed, however, the impact of the same has been insufficient to overcome the same demand, particularly in Europe. This resulted in a surplus of refined zinc in [ LME ] warehouses during the quarter.
Regarding the zinc outlook, [ usage ] anticipated rise in India, Mexico, China and Vietnam on the back of increased focus on infrastructure, while the demand in Europe and U.S.A. is likely to remain flat.
Coming to lead. During the quarter, the price in volatile, averaging $2,123 per tonne, down 2% sequentially, up 1% year-on-year. This is consistent with the kind of surplus driven by secondary market despite a modest recovery in mines and primary smelter output.
Moving forward, net prices are expected to remain reasonably supported by healthy demand driven by automotive industry and relatively tight supply due to recent suspensions. In domestic market, PLI schemes and emerging cash-rich middle-class families are expected to fuel the expansion of automobile industry, thereby supporting lead demand.
Coming to silver. Prices averaged $23.2 per dry ounce, down 2% sequentially and up 10% year-on-year. In India, the industrial consumption of silver is relatively lower as compared to global levels and is expected to increase going forward on the back of new-age technological developments, like EVs and 5G, and shifting priorities towards renewable energy, et cetera. Silver market has been in deficit in 2023 for third consecutive year in a row, considering the current macroeconomic environment and the supply and demand dynamics, we hold a strong positive outlook for silver prices.
Coming to an update on the operational performance. I'm pleased to reaffirm that we achieved our highest ever 9-month mined metal and silver production. During the quarter, our emphasis on proactively maximizing silver production in response to heightened prices led to attainment of our highest level third quarter silver production at 197 tonnes, up 9% sequentially and 22% year-on-year. Anticipating significant potential in the silver industry, our consistent enhancements in silver production propelled the company's global banking from 23rd in 2014 to fifth largest silver producer in 2023. Please refer to Slide 20 for further information.
I would also like to highlight that our company has an industry-leading [ five-star ] production compounded annual growth rate of 4.5 year, production compounded annual growth rate of 4.3% in mined metal, 4.1% in refined metals and 3.9% in silver, showcasing a state-first commitment to growth. This accomplishment is significant considering the backdrop of numerous mines and smelter closures and suspensions in the complex global business landscape.
Before handing over the call to Sandeep, I would like to give an update on the projects, the fumer and our alloy plants are under operation currently. Progress of the new roaster and fertilizer project is also on track. Further based on the current run rate, ongoing developments, key structural changes and valuable learnings alongside an increased integration of technology, we are confident in our ability to deliver the projected volumes for the financial year.
With this, I hand over the call to Sandeep for an update on financial performance.
Thank you, Mr. Misra, and a very good afternoon, everyone. Firstly, I would like to extend my wishes for a joyous New Year to everyone as we connect for the first time in this year.
Speaking about the quarter that went by, the operational performance at Hindustan Zinc was notably positive as detailed by Mr. Misra. There was a favorable momentum observed in the economic variables as well. As a result of the ongoing cost optimization initiative in the company towards achieving the designed cost of $1,000 per tonne, this quarter recorded the lowest cost in the past 10 quarters, achieving a sustained cost reduction in last 4 consecutive quarters.
The persistent improvement solidified our position as a global cost leader placing Hindustan Zinc in the first design of the global zinc mining cost curve. Please refer Slide 24 for further details on the cost. Further, though it is challenging to achieve intermittent cost reduction, however, the crucial and the more complex aspect is sustaining it over an extended period, which is one of our main strategy to navigate through a so-called M&A environment, evidently. As a result, our EBITDA margin increased from 46% in previous quarter to 49% in quarter 3 FY '24. It was supported by prioritizing silver production as well.
While the pursuit of better operational efficiencies continue, we are supplementing it with investment in diverse digitalization, automation solution, facilitating better value accruals in the upcoming quarters, providing a more comprehensive picture of the company's financial performance for the third quarter and the 9 months ended December '23. Revenue from operations during the quarter was INR 7,310 crores, 8% better sequentially on account of higher zinc prices and better zinc and silver volume, partly offset by lower lead and silver prices and volumes, though it was down 7% Y-o-Y due to significantly lower zinc prices and lower zinc volume partly offset by favorable exchange rate, higher lead and silver prices and volume.
For the 9 months, the revenue from operations stood at INR 21,383 crores. It was impacted Y-o-Y due to reduced zinc prices and volume being partly offset by improved lead and silver volume and prices and favorable exchange rates.
Coming to the zinc cost of production before royalty. During the quarter, it was $1,095 per tonne, 4% better sequentially and 15% better Y-o-Y in USD terms. For the 9 months FY '24, CoP was $1,142 per tonne, 10% better Y-o-Y. The cost improvement was mainly on account of better volume, softened coal prices, operational efficiency, partly offset by lower asset realization due to market, further supported by better grades and better linkage coal availability and utilization year-on-year.
The resulting EBITDA for the quarter was INR 3,559 crores, up 14% sequentially and impacted by revenue from operation and cost of production on a Y-o-Y basis, 4%. For the 9 months, EBITDA was INR 10,040 crores, down 25% Y-o-Y, largely due to the lower LME. Please refer to EBITDA from Slide #26 to 28 for further details. Consolidated net profit for the quarter stood at INR 2,028 crores, up 17% sequentially, though down 6% Y-o-Y, in line with EBITDA offset with tax expenses. For the 9 months, the net profit stood at INR 5,721 crores, down 28% Y-o-Y, primarily on account of lower EBITDA, partly offset by lower tax expenses. The effective tax rate for the third quarter is 24% in accordance with the new tax regime in which the company has already moved.
During the quarter, Hindustan Zinc has also paid an increased dividend of INR 2,535 crores, contributing to the cumulative dividend payout of INR 5,493 crores for the ongoing fiscal year, reflecting our commitment to deliver value effect in return to our shareholders. Further, giving a sense of our commitment to nation building, we contribute almost 23% of revenue, 45% of EBITDA, 59% of profit before tax to the [ exchequer ] through the royalty and income tax alone, highlighting the financial strategy implemented to [ lead ] better silver prices, sliver segment now account for over 45% of our profit in FY '24 as compared to 27% in the last year, underscoring our commitment to maximize shareholder value.
Another noteworthy highlight of the year in the quarter is that our market share in India private zinc market has decreased from 75% to 7-quarter highest of 79%. Despite the challenges posed by the recent market conditions globally, we successfully increased our market share significantly in India. As we entered into the New Year, we plan to intensify our efforts towards achieving our design cost of $1,000 and reiterate our guidance.
With this, I'll conclude my comment and we open floor for questions. Thank you.
[Operator Instructions] The first question is from of Vikash Singh from PhillipCapital.
Sir, I wanted to understand the update on the business plan restructuring of the different division, where we are so far?
Sure. Regarding the Hindustan Zinc being...
Hindustan Zinc -- section of divisions...
Correct, correct. This is the Board. Board has discussed. Now it is between the government nominee directors and the other Board members. So I think government nominee directors are yet to communicate their agreement to the proposal. Once that is done, then we'll take it forward.
Understood. Sir, any timelines, which you have internally decided between if you wanted to complete that?
I expect that before the next -- that is -- we are now sitting in January, before the next Board meeting, which can be anytime towards the end of March or April, that should be our internal timeline, we should be able to close it.
Understood, sir. Sir, second question pertains to our volume guidance. So given the 9 months production and sales, our asking rate is a little bit high. So one thing on the mined metal side. So do you think that we will at least meet the lower end of the guidance? And secondly, do you want to increase your guidance on the silver production, basically once -- since the fumers are now completed and they would be ramping up?
So I think at the current rate of production, as you see, quarter 4 normally is the best-ever quarter that we will present. So achieving the guidance is not an issue to us. And just now, we would not be correcting the silver number because it's a matter of both our strategy operation as well as the grade of silver that we get during mining. We maximize this quarter over quarter 4 with the mode of operation that we have selected. We will look at it, but my apprehension or expectation is silver number will be shared better than what we have committed. And of course, mined metal and finished metal, we will achieve the guidance numbers.
Just to complement here, Sandeep here, if you even add the last quarter 4, which has been ever best always, and this quarter will be also the same story, even with that, against the guidance of $1,175 to $1,100, we are around taking a $1,085 kind of number. I think we are comfortably within the guidance rate. The similar is the story for the refined metal and silver. So we are quite confident to achieve the volume guidance.
Understood, sir. Sir, now that we have now run rate of silver is closer to 800 tonnes a year, what is the expected peak?
What is the expected peak...
What is the expected peak in the silver production because I remember once we guided that, we wanted to reach 1,000 tonnes a year of silver. So anything on that?
No, so the whole ore production has to go up. We can always clear on with maximizing lead production, maximizing use of SK mines concentrate and things like that. First of -- overall, see, Hindustan Zinc to move from 700 tonnes to 800 tonnes, we need to move -- increase our current rate of metal production from, say, 1.05 million tonnes to 1.2 million tonnes. I see the target of when we achieve 1.2 million tonnes, we'll be comfortably achieving around 800 tonnes of silver. So that we can achieve. At 1.5 million tonnes, we should be getting closer to 2,000 tonnes.
Understood, sir. And just one last question, if I may ask, our Debari roaster, so any timeline for the completion of the same?
By early quarter 4 of this financial year, so that may be anywhere between January to March, but we are planning to track it and bring it closer.
Sure, that is...
Next financial year, which is January to March of 2025.
Okay. Next financial year, January to March.
Yes, yes.
Okay. All the best for the future.
The next question is from the line of Pallav Agarwal from Antique Stockbroking.
So the first question was on how the domestic physical premiums have played out sequentially? So have you seen some drop over there?
Pallav, so first of all, happy New Year. Pallav, I think the domestic market premium or export, both have been working in tandem with the market. And I don't think anything significantly has happened to the premium. It's all in line with the market and the competition.
Sure, sir. And what about, you are planning to increase a proportion of value-added products in the mix? So how has the progress been on that?
So we had that -- alloy plant commissioning, which has happened. It is ramping up. And I think by next quarter, we will be able to report a healthy number of special products that we produce from the alloy plant, which will add to our value-added product number. But as of now, the way we produce value-added product in the standard mode, like last year, the numbers are not much, around 18% to 20% we have.
Sure, sir. And I think you're targeting, I think, 24% to 30% if I recall...
So that additional will come from our alloy plant also.
Sure, sir. So also just -- if you could just help us out with how the coal -- domestic coal availability is? And I believe you have [indiscernible] power plants, too, except we have domestic coal. So is that started showing results and what kind of cost improvements can we see from that?
No. Our -- see, there are 2 parts to it. One part is general availability of domestic coal. It is not as good as it was in quarter 3 -- quarter 2. However, it is healthy. The percentage of domestic consumption is healthy. Second, we have modified our power plants, which are now capable of digesting more and more domestic coal at higher. So roughly, if I give you the percentage numbers, we were 45% earlier in quarter 2, which was reduced to 30% or 31%. As we have been saying earlier that we require about 22%, 23% of the share of domestic coal the way the power plants are designed, but we are now able to digest up to 30%, 40% of domestic coal. This has, of course, helped us in reducing the power cost. Also, we have done at a domestic coal and more than 100% plant load factor kind of a performance. Our power costs are well within our target and which is actually has started reflecting on our overall cost of production, which has gone down.
Market contribution to overall cost, which used to be 42% last year, has gone down to 35%.
Sure, sir. Okay. And probably this can, maybe -- we can -- probably there's room for further improvement, I guess, going...
At the current level of power plant capacity to digest thermal, domestic coal, if we start getting, say, 45% domestic coal in our total coal mix, the cost will go down further.
Sure, sir. Sir, finally, if you could just help us with the broad outlook on zinc and lead pricing for CY '24, given that Chinese stimulus efforts really haven't probably had the effect that was expected. So any sense steel, we continue to see a lot of exports still coming out of China. So is this any different in terms of zinc and lead, the domestic demand over it?
No, no. Post-COVID world is such that it's very difficult to predict because earlier there was a firm equation between countries and one could predict what price will go up, what will come down. Today, you see even Chinese stimulus announcement, expenditure is not able to push the prices up, right? Europe has not recovered. Europe remains largely flat and very docile as far as economic growth is concerned. U.S. has registered good growth, but also affected by inflation. Although the inflation numbers have started coming down, gas prices have started coming down, but still U.S. is only geography, which is [Technical Difficulty].
Participants, please stay connected. Line for the management dropped. Ladies and gentlemen, please stay connected while we rejoin the management back to the call.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your patience. We have the line for management reconnected. Sir, you may continue.
Yes. So as I was saying, the overall export, geography-wise, Europe has not shown a very promising recovery, whereas U.S. remains slightly more promising. Indian economy is still strong, perhaps one of the strongest economies among the developing countries. So we are focusing more and more on domestic sales compared to exports. As far as predicting the prices is concerned, and under this condition, our prediction of the price moving closer to $3,000 has not materialized even in the month of December. So I won't hazard a guess. I would be happy if it continues at the current level, maybe plus or minus $50 for another quarter, I think that will help us out.
The next question is from the line of Alok Deora from Motilal Oswal.
Sir, just one question. So the cost of production has come down pretty well in this quarter as well. So any outlook there? We have kind of maintained the full year guidance. So how -- where could we see the CoP moving ahead?
So Alok, we continue to remain the guidance of $1,125 to $1,175, but I can give you the assurance that we will be at the lower edge of the $1,125 to $1,175. And going forward, as I said, that this time, we grow $1,095. So accordingly you can do your maths. But going forward, we believe that our -- we deserve towards the $1,000 cost design.
Got it. And sir, the debt right now at the company level is, I think, INR 10,000 crores or so. So where do we see that heading going ahead? So any comment on that?
So if you see at the net debt level, we are around INR 360 crores. And given the healthy cash flow generation, so during this year, we have generated a free cash flow of INR 6,900 crores, which is also the post growth CapEx and RE power investment of INR 1,000 crores, out of which INR 5,500 crores were distributed as a dividend and INR 1,400 crores was used for the debt reduction. So even we safely assume the EBITDA of the Q4 and even at current level LME, I'm confident that minimum by INR 2,000 crores, this debt reduction will happen in the Q4.
Next question is from the line of Amit Dixit from ICICI Securities.
Congratulations on a good set of numbers. I have a couple of questions. The first one is essentially on fumer. So with the commissioning of fumer project and with it streamlining by end of Q4 FY '24, what kind of additional production we can expect from fumer?
So we had a plan from the fumer about 30 tonnes of silver in the year. I think that level we will achieve by the end of Q4. And next year, full year, we'll be taking that into consideration while we plan the numbers.
So that means next year, sir, we are already running at silver production of roughly 197. Of course, that is driven by increased -- one of the smelters [indiscernible] only. So is it fair to assume that next year we could be like in -- above north of 800 in silver, roughly?
I won't hazard a guess, but if you say this year, if we close at close to around, say, 720, which would add another 30 to that or if we close at 700, we will add another 30 to it. Whatever we close at, we'll be adding another 30 to that and then produce accordingly.
Okay. The second one is a bookkeeping question, sir. Only if you could just mention the revenue and capital mine development this quarter?
So revenue and capital mine development both for around 13 kilometers per -- so each -- so that was a revenue and capital mine development in this quarter.
Okay. And another one, sir, if I may. Maybe I missed it because I joined the call a little bit late. You mentioned in the prepared remarks about the improvement in grade. So what was the average grade realized in this quarter?
So this quarter, it was around 7.4, and it is a Y-o-Y higher. Last quarter Y-o-Y was 6.96. This time is 7.36.
Next question is from the line of Shraddha Dikshit from Systematix Group.
I wanted to know, could you throw some light on the operational details of the zinc alloy plant, like the volumes? And what was the realization in margin that can be expected going forward? And you mentioned something about it could contribute to 20% to 25%. What were -- I missed. What contribution were you talking about there?
No, no. We are talking about one value-added product. Currently, we're at about 18% to 20% of our -- and the total product is value-added product. In the definition that we now value-added product is to be, which can be jumbo, which can be [indiscernible], which can be [indiscernible] but mostly produce [indiscernible].
Going forward, over 30,000 tonnes per annum value-added products will be produced separately by the alloy plant. As of now, it has just been commissioned. It is still going through the teething issues of the plant that has. And we believe that by quarter 4, it will be stabilized. And next year, full year, when we look at, it will surely add another 30,000 tonnes of production and take our value-added production percentage from 20% to maybe 25%.
Next question is from the line of Shivang Chauhan from Barclays.
I have a quick one on if you would have an update on the transfer balance [ NCLT ] hearing that was supposed to happen, any update on that you could provide?
Yes, Shivang, first of all, happy New Year. We had [ GR2RE ] last hearing on January 24 at the NCLT Jaipur, this is a second motion, and the hearing went very well, almost for 1.5 hours. We expect the order to be passed maybe in February. So the next date of hearing is 15th February '24, all are [ procedural ] in nature. Given the size and the rare kind of thing, it's taking time.
[Operator Instructions] As there are no further questions, I would now like to hand the conference over to Ms. Jhalak Rastogi for closing comments.
Thank you, everyone. With this, we close today's earnings call. For any follow-up questions or clarifications on the results, please feel free to reach out to Investor Relations team. Thank you.
Thank you very much. On behalf of Hindustan Zinc, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.