Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd
NSE:HINDPETRO
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one HINDPETRO stock under the Base Case scenario is 653.91 INR. Compared to the current market price of 360.7 INR, Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd is Undervalued by 45%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
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Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd
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Fundamental Analysis
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Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) is a major player in India’s energy sector, acting as a bridge between the raw potential of crude oil and the end consumer's needs. Established in 1974, HPCL operates a network of refineries and a vast distribution infrastructure, ensuring the supply of a diverse range of fuels and lubricants across the country. With a strong focus on innovation and sustainability, the company has embarked on various projects to integrate renewable energy sources and enhance operational efficiency. Investors are drawn to HPCL not only for its pivotal role in the energy sector but also for its consistent performance, robust market presence, and commitment to expa...
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) is a major player in India’s energy sector, acting as a bridge between the raw potential of crude oil and the end consumer's needs. Established in 1974, HPCL operates a network of refineries and a vast distribution infrastructure, ensuring the supply of a diverse range of fuels and lubricants across the country. With a strong focus on innovation and sustainability, the company has embarked on various projects to integrate renewable energy sources and enhance operational efficiency. Investors are drawn to HPCL not only for its pivotal role in the energy sector but also for its consistent performance, robust market presence, and commitment to expanding its footprint in the evolving landscape of clean energy.
As the demand for energy continues to grow in India, driven by rapid urbanization and economic development, HPCL is well-positioned to capitalize on these opportunities. The company's strategic initiatives, including investments in advanced refining technologies and alternative fuels, signify its forward-thinking approach in an industry undergoing significant transformation. Additionally, HPCL's history of sound financial management and good dividend payouts makes it an attractive option for investors looking for stable returns in a dynamic market. With regulatory support for the energy sector and a concrete roadmap for long-term growth, HPCL stands ready to navigate the complexities of the industry while delivering value to its shareholders.
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) is a major player in the Indian oil and gas industry, and its core business segments include:
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Refining: HPCL operates refineries that convert crude oil into various petroleum products. The company's refining operations are characterized by advanced technologies, which enhance efficiency and produce a range of products like gasoline, diesel, kerosene, and aviation fuel. HPCL has significant refining capacity, which enables it to meet regional and national fuel demands.
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Marketing: This segment involves the distribution and marketing of petroleum products. HPCL has an extensive network of fuel stations, retail outlets, and supply chains across India, making it a major player in the sale of fuels. This segment also includes selling lubricants, LPG (liquefied petroleum gas), and other petroleum derivatives to customers through both traditional and digital channels.
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Natural Gas: HPCL has ventured into the natural gas sector, focusing on the marketing and distribution of compressed natural gas (CNG) and piped natural gas (PNG). This segment aims to promote cleaner energy solutions and help reduce reliance on traditional fuels.
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Petrochemicals: HPCL is involved in the production and marketing of petrochemical products derived from petroleum refining. These products serve various industries like textiles, plastics, and chemicals, thereby enhancing HPCL's value chain.
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Renewable Energy: HPCL is increasingly focusing on sustainable practices and has initiatives related to biofuels and renewable energy solutions. This segment reflects the company's commitment to addressing environmental concerns and contributing to India's energy transition.
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Exploration and Production (E&P): Although not its primary focus, HPCL has made investments in exploration and production activities to secure crude oil supplies. This segment enables the company to enhance its energy portfolio and mitigate risks associated with supply fluctuations.
These core segments collectively contribute to HPCL's strategic objectives, helping it maintain competitiveness in the dynamic energy sector while focusing on sustainable growth.
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) possesses several unique competitive advantages that help it maintain its position in the oil and gas sector. Here are some notable ones:
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Integrated Operation: HPCL operates in both upstream (exploration and production) and downstream (refining and marketing) sectors, providing it with a comprehensive value chain. This integration allows HPCL to manage costs more effectively and respond to market dynamics swiftly.
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Strong Branding and Market Presence: HPCL has a well-established brand and is recognized for its quality products and services. The company’s extensive distribution network, including a significant number of fuel stations across India, enhances its market presence and customer reach.
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Refinery Capacity and Technology: HPCL has modern refineries with advanced technologies that enhance efficiency in refining processes. Its refinery in Mumbai and the Vizag refinery are among the largest in India, providing economies of scale and the ability to process a variety of crude oil types.
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Government Support and Collaboration: As a public sector undertaking, HPCL benefits from government policies and support. This enhances its stability and provides it with a competitive edge in securing licenses and regulatory approvals.
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Diverse Product Offerings: HPCL produces a wide range of petroleum products, including various grades of fuels and lubricants, petrochemicals, and specialty products. This diversification helps mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations in single product categories.
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Sustainability Initiatives: HPCL is committed to sustainable practices and has invested in projects aimed at reducing its carbon footprint, such as biofuels and renewable energy initiatives. This focus on sustainability can enhance its reputation and align with the growing consumer preference for environmentally responsible companies.
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Research and Development: HPCL invests in R&D for fuel efficiency, cleaner fuels, and better product formulations, which positions it competitively in the market for innovation and customer satisfaction.
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Strategic Collaborations and Partnerships: HPCL engages in partnerships with various entities, including international firms, which can lead to technology transfer, knowledge sharing, and enhanced operational capability.
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Customer-Centric Approach: HPCL's focus on customer service and convenience, especially with digital initiatives and loyalty programs, enhances customer loyalty and brand preference, which can lead to higher sales volumes.
By leveraging these competitive advantages, HPCL continues to enhance its market position, even amidst challenges from rivals in the domestic and international landscape.
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL), like many companies in the oil and gas sector, faces various risks and challenges in the near future. Here are some key areas to consider:
1. Volatility in Crude Oil Prices
- Market Fluctuations: HPCL is heavily impacted by fluctuations in global crude oil prices, which can affect margins.
- Geopolitical Factors: Political instability in oil-producing regions can disrupt supply and lead to price spikes.
2. Regulatory and Environmental Risks
- Regulatory Compliance: Compliance with environmental regulations is becoming increasingly stringent, requiring investments in cleaner technologies.
- Carbon Emission Targets: The push towards reducing carbon emissions and the energy transition could present operational challenges and necessitate changes in business strategy.
3. Competition and Market Dynamics
- Intense Competition: The Indian oil and gas market is competitive, with both public and private sector players vying for market share.
- Market Share Threats: The rise of renewable energy sources and alternative fuels could eat into the traditional market for fossil fuels.
4. Impact of Global Energy Transition
- Shift to Renewable Energy: As global energy consumption patterns shift, HPCL may need to diversify its portfolio to include renewable energy sources, which requires significant capital investment and strategic planning.
- Consumer Preference Shifts: There is an increasing trend toward sustainability among consumers, which could diminish demand for traditional petroleum products.
5. Operational Challenges
- Infrastructure Development: HPCL needs to continuously invest in refining and pipeline infrastructure to maintain efficiency and support expansion.
- Supply Chain Issues: Disruptions in the supply chain, whether due to global events or local challenges, can affect operations and profitability.
6. Financial Risks
- Debt Levels: High levels of debt can pose challenges, impacting the company's ability to invest in new projects or technologies.
- Currency Fluctuation: As global business operations expose HPCL to foreign exchange risk, fluctuations in currency can impact profitability.
7. Technological Changes
- Digital Transformation: The rapid pace of technological advancement requires continuous investment in IT infrastructure and digital tools.
- Cybersecurity Risks: Increased reliance on digital systems also exposes HPCL to cyber risks.
8. Pandemic-Related Uncertainties
- COVID-19 Aftereffects: The lingering effects of the pandemic may continue to affect demand and operational capacity in the medium term.
9. Workforce Management
- Skill Shortages: Attracting and retaining skilled labor in an evolving industry focused on technology and sustainability can be a challenge.
- Labor Relations: Managing labor relations and potential strikes or unrest can impact operations.
In summary, while HPCL has a strong market position, it must navigate a complex landscape of risks and challenges to ensure its long-term sustainability and profitability. Strategic planning, diversification, and adoption of new technologies will be key to mitigating these risks.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd
Current Assets | 544.5B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 90.9B |
Receivables | 93.4B |
Other Current Assets | 360.2B |
Non-Current Assets | 1.3T |
Long-Term Investments | 252.6B |
PP&E | 999.7B |
Intangibles | 14.1B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 67.7B |
Current Liabilities | 937.6B |
Accounts Payable | 253.1B |
Other Current Liabilities | 684.5B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 482B |
Long-Term Debt | 401.2B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 80.8B |
Earnings Waterfall
Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd
Revenue
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4.7T
INR
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Cost of Revenue
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-4.4T
INR
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Gross Profit
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336.2B
INR
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Operating Expenses
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-277.6B
INR
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Operating Income
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58.6B
INR
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Other Expenses
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-16.6B
INR
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Net Income
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42B
INR
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Free Cash Flow Analysis
Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd
INR | |
Free Cash Flow | INR |
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) reported a stand-alone revenue of INR 108,216 crores, an 8.2% increase year-over-year. Despite this, profit after tax declined to INR 631 crores due to lower marketing and refining margins, exacerbated by a significant LPG under-recovery of INR 4,400 crores. The Gross Refining Margin (GRM) fell sharply to $3.12 per barrel from $13.33 a year prior. However, with strategic projects and a projected increase in GRM, HPCL anticipates core profitability doubling, potentially reaching INR 5,000-5,500 crores in the first half. The upcoming Vizag facility upgrade should enhance margins by an additional $2 to $3 per barrel【4:1†source】.
What is Earnings Call?
HINDPETRO Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd's profitability score is 44/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd's profitability score is 44/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
HINDPETRO Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd's solvency score is 35/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd's solvency score is 35/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
HINDPETRO Price Targets Summary
Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HINDPETRO is 405.35 INR with a low forecast of 202 INR and a high forecast of 549.15 INR.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for HINDPETRO is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
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Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
Hindustan Petroleum Corp. Ltd. engages in the business of refining crude oil and sales of petroleum products. The company is headquartered in Mumbai, Maharashtra. Its segments include Downstream Petroleum, which is engaged in refining and marketing of petroleum products; and All other segments, which is engaged in E&P of hydrocarbons and manufacturing sugar and ethanol. Its businesses include HP refineries, HP retail (petrol bunk), HP Gas (LPG), HP lubricants, HP aviation, HP direct sales, HP projects and pipeline, HP supplies, operations, and distribution, HP international trade, HP natural gas and renewables, HP petrochemicals and HP research and development. The company exports various petroleum products from its refineries, which include fuel oil, naphtha, high Sulphur gasoil and high Sulphur gasoline.
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The intrinsic value of one HINDPETRO stock under the Base Case scenario is 653.91 INR.
Compared to the current market price of 360.7 INR, Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd is Undervalued by 45%.