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Heidelbergcement India Ltd
NSE:HEIDELBERG

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Heidelbergcement India Ltd
NSE:HEIDELBERG
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Earnings Call Analysis

Summary
Q4-2024

HeidelbergCement's Focus on Growth and Sustainability

In 2023, HeidelbergCement India achieved a 16% increase in EBITDA per tonne to INR 659, driven by a decrease in input costs. The company is advancing its sustainability goals, announcing a hybrid renewable energy deal and plans to reach 40% green power by FY25. Clinker capacity de-bottlenecking is set to add 400,000 tonnes of cement output. Volume growth was 9% over the year, with profitability benefiting from lower power and fuel costs. The company aims for a 6-7% volume growth in FY25. A new premium product, Power Shield, saw rapid market acceptance, contributing to brand premiumization.

Earnings Call Transcript

Earnings Call Transcript
2024-Q4

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Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to HeidelbergCement India Limited Earnings Conference Call for Quarter and Year-ended 31st March 2024, hosted by PhillipCapital India Private Limited. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded.

I now hand the conference over to Mr. Vaibhav Agarwal from PhillipCapital India Private Limited. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

V
Vaibhav Agarwal
analyst

Yes. Thank you, Michelle. Good afternoon, everyone. On behalf of PhillipCapital India Private Limited, we welcome you to the earnings call for quarter and year-ended 31st March 2024 of HeidelbergCement India Limited. On the call, we have with us: Mr. Joydeep Mukherjee, Managing Director; and Mr. Anil Sharma, Chief Financial Officer of HeidelbergCement India Limited.

I would like to mention on behalf of HeidelbergCement India Limited and this management that certain statements that we made or discuss on this conference call may be forward-looking statements related to the future developments and based on the current expectations.

These statements are subject to a number of risks, uncertainties and other important factors, which may cause actual developments and results to differ materially from the statements made. HeidelbergCement India Limited and the management of the company assumes no obligation to publicly update or alter these forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information or future events or otherwise. Also, HeidelbergCement India Limited has uploaded a copy of the FY '24 investor presentation on their website and stock exchanges. Participants are requested to download a copy of the presentation from these websites.

I will now handover the floor to the management of HeidelbergCement India Limited for opening remarks, which will be followed by interactive Q&A. Thank you, and over to you, Joydeep, sir.

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

Okay. Thank you so much, Vaibhav. So on our key messages for 2024, which is the year past, the messages are that we are still continuing to produce 100% blended cement in our operations. We have signed a long-term Hybrid PPA for 8 megawatts Wind and 8 megawatts Solar for 37 gigawatt hours per annum. Our share of non-grid power has increased to 38%. Our EBITDA of INR 659 per tonne is up by 16% year-on-year.

We have recently announced a de-bottlenecking of clinker capacity, which should result in an increased cement output of 400,000 tonnes. We have repaid interest-free loan of INR 629 million. Our cash and bank balances exceed the borrowings right now, and we continue to operate on a negative net operating working capital. We have recently announced for the Board meeting a dividend of INR 8 per share.

Okay. So if we go on to the ESG overview. As I mentioned earlier, we are at 100% blended cement. Our CO2 footprint is currently at 506 kgs per tonne of cement. We are 4.4x Water Positive. As far as our CSR outreach programs are concerned, we touch more than 20,000 lives. And our green power is at 1/3 of our total power consumption.

On the new hybrid renewable energy projects, we are very bullish on that, and this will further increase our green power share. Jhansi is the solar power supply started under long-term Solar agreement for 22 gigawatt hours per annum. Narsingarh is constantly and consistently operating on 40% green power. Narsingarh and Imlai, we have signed a long-term Hybrid PPA for 8-megawatt Wind and 8-megawatt Solar, as we talked about before. And Ammasandra consistently operating at more than 90%. Our target is to reach more than 40% green power by FY '25.

For the financial year '24, we had a 9% volume growth, and the March quarter was -- the March quarter grew by 4%. Our increase in profitability is fundamentally driven by decrease in input costs. And obviously, the decrease in power and fuel prices, we are not able to get the full benefit out of it, because there were also a corresponding decrease in prices in the market.

The March -- April '23 to March '24 EBITDA increased mainly due to a decrease in power and fuel costs, as I mentioned before. We continue to operate on negative working capital, exceeding INR 2 billion.

I think the rest of the points have been covered, except to say that we added a value-added product, which is Power Shield, in December '24. This is a functionally different cement. It's been accepted very well in the market. We are already up to more than 8,000 tonnes of sales per month. This will result in premiumization of our brands, and we are now opening up our new markets for this product.

For the financial year past, we dispatched 44% of our total products by road. This has slightly gone down by 2.8% year-on-year, because we've also started addressing some new markets, which are a little further from our plants that are profitable. We are operating at 8% AFR, which is up by 2.3% year-on-year.

On our total sales mix, 34% is of trade volume. We are up with premium products, which is up by 2.6% year-on-year, which is Power and Power Shield. And on our sales composition, 82% of our total sales is through the retail channel, which is up by 0.6% year-on-year. We are constantly increasing premiumization and optimizing the appropriate mix.

On the outlook, we would say that there are some positives and obviously, some challenges. On the positives, we see that, the Indian economy has been growing at a very impressive rate. The quarter 3 FY '24 GDP surged to 8.4%, which is higher than expectations. This is driven by strong domestic demand, government spending and obviously, manufacturing boom. Typically, in the past too, cement has been at about 1.1x to 1.2x the GDP growth. So we expect the growth to be strong and stable, absorbing some of the overcapacities in the market.

On the inflation side, it has been on the downward trend. The CPI, obviously was at a 9-month low of 4.9% in March. This is very good news for consumers and businesses. GST collections have been at an all-time high, giving the government more resources to invest, which should be good for our sector. And in the construction sector, the housing and infra, which are the major consumers of cement, are anticipated to continue to drive demand going forward.

On challenges, obviously, one of the biggest challenges in the last couple of months has been the election, which has led to some conservatism in consumption. There's also a little bit of shortage of labor, et cetera, in the market, which has caused a little bit of a dampener in the last couple of months.

The global headwinds also could be a challenge. The global slowdown and geopolitical tensions could pose some risks to India's export growth and foreign investments. And obviously, the competition is intensifying. The market is quite fragmented. And it is, as we see going forward, would only result in increased competition, and potentially put pressure on cement prices. But obviously, after a period of the prices falling, we've always seen, since prevail and the prices to bounce back, so we don't anticipate that this is going to be a very serious issue in the long term.

So those are my comments, and I would now like to hand it over back to you, Vaibhav.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from the line of Keshav Lahoti from HDFC Securities.

K
Keshav Lahoti
analyst

So I want to better understand more on the clinical de-bottlenecking and what sort of de-bottlenecking you are doing. You also have some 0.2 million tonne, 0.3 million tonne de-bottlenecking on cement and clinker, earlier plan. So what is the status of that and finally on the Gujarat expansion?

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

No, this clinker de-bottlenecking project has been started this year. And we are going to get the benefit by first quarter of 2025 calendar year. That's when the project will end. This de-bottlenecking shall result in an additional cement volume of 200,000 tonnes per annum. And the project is well on its way, and we don't anticipate any delays in this, whatsoever. Does that answer your question?

K
Keshav Lahoti
analyst

Yes, it answered. So earlier, we have some 0.2 million, 0.3 million in cement and clinker de-bottlenecking plan. So is that done in FY '24?

A
Anil Sharma
executive

No. This is the same de-bottlenecking projects we are talking about.

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

When you say earlier, when was earlier, the last call?

A
Anil Sharma
executive

Last call.

K
Keshav Lahoti
analyst

Yes, when you last time you did the call.

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

At that time, the Board had approved it. The project hasn't started. Now the project has started, and it's going to be over by quarter 1 of 2025 calendar year.

K
Keshav Lahoti
analyst

I understood.

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

Yes. In Gujarat, the matter is still pretty much in the government's court. We can't move until we receive the EC. So all efforts are on to get the EC. That's where it is right now.

K
Keshav Lahoti
analyst

I understood.

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

The environmental clearance for the project hasn't come yet.

K
Keshav Lahoti
analyst

Understood. What is the fuel cost on KCAL basis for Q4? And what is the outlook in the upcoming quarter?

A
Anil Sharma
executive

So fuel cost, we, see, consume coal, petcoke, as well as the alternative fuels. And during this quarter, our fuel cost was, year-on-year, this is almost down by around 30%. And now we can say as compared to March, it is almost flat in the current quarter. And if you look at continuation, that is the coal is around INR 1.6 kilo calorie per kg of coke.

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

I think he is asking about fuel mix, coal and petcoke together.

A
Anil Sharma
executive

So your question was about, how much coal or petcoke we're consuming?

K
Keshav Lahoti
analyst

So my question is the combined fuel cost on KCAL is how much coal and petcoke, everything including in Q4? And what is the outlook for Q1 and Q2?

A
Anil Sharma
executive

Yes. It is around INR 1.8 per kilocalorie, the combined fuel cost. And on the stepping point with respect to the current prevailing fuel cost, it's almost flat as compared to March.

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

Yes. As of now, the outlook is also flat.

K
Keshav Lahoti
analyst

Understood. Got it. One last question from my side. How is the plans on merger of Zuari with Heidelberg, when should we expect it?

A
Anil Sharma
executive

Again, we have been working over it and we still -- we are not finding a solution with respect to stamp duty thing. Although the government has already come out in 2021 with respect to regulatory part of the additional royalty, that problem is over, but it is -- stamp duty calculation, it is, we are still not able to find that, okay, how much will we pay out. So we are working on it, and it's still adamant to find some solution to start the process.

K
Keshav Lahoti
analyst

So ideally, the right way to see is possibly nothing we should hear on FY '25? Possibly at FY '26 might be the year we should look for merger?

A
Anil Sharma
executive

Yes. You will appreciate that this is the kind of merger, where it covers around 8 to 10 states in India and as well as the transfer of the mining permits, and if we all end. And then we have seen that after filing the merger application, it takes around 12 months by the NCLT, and thereafter the execution or transfer of the property name of the listed company. So you are right that even if you start the process in the fiscal year '25, it is not going to complete. It takes time, maybe '26 or '27.

K
Keshav Lahoti
analyst

Okay. Got it. One last small question from my side. Green power mix for FY '24 is 33%. And for Q4, you said 38%.

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

No, green power...

A
Anil Sharma
executive

So there are two things. One is the dependence on the known grades. So we also purchased some -- a small quantity from the Open Exchange. So our green power, which is about 33% is the pure power which we consume, and thereafter, we purchase around 5% from the Open Exchange. It's nearly 38% of the full year.

K
Keshav Lahoti
analyst

Okay. And for Q4, this number is similar?

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

More or less similar, yes.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Shravan Shah from Dolat Capital.

S
Shravan Shah
analyst

Before asking question, just wanted to understand, I think last call, we did in Q1 FY '24 and then two quarters, we did not do the con call. And now again, we are doing. So any specific reason? And now onwards, we will be doing every quarter or it will be a yearly basis?

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

Well, there is no hard and fast rule like that. But as of now, the thought is that we do it once a year. But if there is a need and if there is something which is substantial and material to announce, we can have it interim too.

S
Shravan Shah
analyst

Okay. Got it. Sir, just to clarify, this clinker when you said it will help to have an extra 2 lakh tonnes of cement volumes. So in terms of the clinker capacity, how much it will increase? And so currently, our clinker capacity is 3.1 million tonnes, if I am not wrong.

A
Anil Sharma
executive

You're right. So our -- in Damoh, our clinker capacity is 3.1 million tonnes. This de-bottlenecking project will increase the clinker capacity. We are trying to get the existing clinker capacity approval from the government, and it will aid or it will increase to clinker capacity to 3.3 million tonnes or 3.4 million tonnes.

S
Shravan Shah
analyst

Okay. Got it. And in terms of the overall cost reduction, so when we are saying that our green share will increase to more than 40% versus currently 38%, so how much reduction in terms of the cost we are looking at? And apart from this, any other area where we are looking at in terms of the cost reduction?

A
Anil Sharma
executive

Green power new power is around 30%, 35% cheaper than the grid power.

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

The grid power, yes.

A
Anil Sharma
executive

And our target to increase the green power only to optimize the cost as well as to reduce the carbon content in the overall cement production. So at this moment, we are trying to get more and more green power from the developers. And we have already entered into one agreement with the developer for the total 8 megawatts plus 8 megawatts, 16 megawatts in green power. And that will start in the current quarter, and you will see the benefit on the account. And then, to that extent, the power cost will be reduced by around 30%, 35%.

S
Shravan Shah
analyst

So if I have to -- in terms of the rupees per unit, if I have to look at, so the thermal power is INR 7.5 and from there, it is 30%, 35%, that's the way one can look at?

A
Anil Sharma
executive

Yes, that's right.

S
Shravan Shah
analyst

Okay. Okay. Apart from that, any other specific area where we are looking at the cost reduction. Sir, I'm trying to understand in terms of given the pricing that are under pressure, so how the profitability can improve?

A
Anil Sharma
executive

So you might have also said in part that we have been putting a lot of CapEx for other alternative fuel projects. We have already done two phases of our alternative fuel projects and third phase is going on. And that also will add a slight value optimization of our variable costs, as well as it reduce the carbon content in cement.

S
Shravan Shah
analyst

Okay. And current cement prices are how much lower versus the fourth quarter average for us?

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

I think on an average, we have seen a drop of around INR 6 per bag.

S
Shravan Shah
analyst

In April and May?

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

Yes, compared to the last quarter you're talking about, right?

S
Shravan Shah
analyst

Yes, yes. So in April and May versus a fourth quarter average of INR 6 drop, you said.

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

Yes. Exactly.

S
Shravan Shah
analyst

Okay. And sir, if you help us with a couple of data points that are on a yearly basis, you have given in the presentation, all these trade share, premium share, road share, lead distance, for fourth quarter and if possible for third quarter, if you can share the same number of trade share, premium, road, lead distance, fuel mix?

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

I don't have it readily available with me.

A
Anil Sharma
executive

These are very stable. If you see...

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

There is no change. I mean, our -- we are fundamentally a retail-oriented company. So there is no material change quarter-to-quarter. I mean, it may change by 0.5%, 1% here and there, but there's nothing more than that.

S
Shravan Shah
analyst

And CapEx for this year, FY '25 and next year, if possible, if you can help us what would be the maintenance CapEx or any other CapEx?

A
Anil Sharma
executive

For next year, our major CapEx will come on account of the de-bottlenecking projects.

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

Exactly.

A
Anil Sharma
executive

So out of [indiscernible],right now, we expect that in fiscal year '24/'25 then we were around INR 50 crores, INR 55 crore CapEx will come on this improvement project. And then other than that, around INR 54 in every year, we have been doing sustainable CapEx. So next year, next fiscal year, we can say that the total CapEx will be in the range of INR 100 crores, INR 125 crores.

S
Shravan Shah
analyst

This is in FY '25 or '26, you are saying?

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

'25.

S
Shravan Shah
analyst

In '25, INR 100 crores, INR 125 crores of CapEx will be there.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Uttam Kumar Srimal from Axis Securities Limited.

U
Uttam Srimal
analyst

Sir, what kind of volume growth you're anticipating in FY '25, taking into consideration the current demand scenario?

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

Well, the volume growth will be -- should be in the line of -- in line with industry growth. Remember that, today, we are almost running at 80% plus capacity utilization. And our de-bottlenecking is not going to come in before quarter 1. So we shall be in line with the industry growth, which should be in the region of about 6% to 7%.

U
Uttam Srimal
analyst

6% to 7%, okay. And sir, what was our lead distance this quarter?

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

Okay. Just give me a moment. Let me find this out. 375 kilometers.

U
Uttam Srimal
analyst

375 kilometers. And sir, fuel mix, if you can provide that pet coke and coal together?

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

We already spoke about fuel, but what do you want to know? Do you...

U
Uttam Srimal
analyst

You had given KCAL cost. I want to know fuel mix during the quarter.

A
Anil Sharma
executive

Okay. 60% petcoke, 30% coal.

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

Yes. So about, probably entire year, he's talking about.

U
Uttam Srimal
analyst

No. Only quarter 4.

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

March quarter. So this is about, yes, 30% coal and 10% AFR, so that's 60% pet coke.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Raghav Malik from Jefferies.

R
Raghav Malik
analyst

Just two questions from my side. So first, on the value-added product? I just wanted to know how much higher is it priced versus our regular product? And what is the share of volumes that you can expect from this maybe going to FY '25?

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

Well, in terms of pricing, it is anywhere between INR 50 to INR 60 higher per bag. But there are also higher inaugural discounts which are connected with this. We are about 8,000 tonnes right now per month. By the end of 2025, we should be clocking anywhere between 20,000 to 25,000 tonnes.

R
Raghav Malik
analyst

Okay. Got it, sir. And sir, just a housekeeping question on geographical mix. Is it still largely central, that's where we get most of our volumes from, Central India?

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

It is UP and MP mostly. Yeah.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Shravan Shah from Dolat Capital.

S
Shravan Shah
analyst

Sir, the Karnataka clinker, Ammasandra, that we have officially now said that we have shut down, but the grinding of 0.5 million tonnes, we are operating. So we are looking at to get the clinker from the reliable sources. So just trying to understand, have we done the arrangement? And is it 1-year arrangement or it is on a spot basis, 1 or 2 month arrangement and will keep on happening?

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

I have not understood your question. We are not doing any clinker addition there at all. We are selling clinker from our [indiscernible] comes under for grinding. That is permanent.

S
Shravan Shah
analyst

No, no. So this was the grindings, from where we are getting the clinker for Karnataka grinding?

A
Anil Sharma
executive

Yes. We have been sourcing this clinker since 2017 from Zuari plant. And this clinker we are getting from them and we don't foresee any risk in the near future. So we definitely mentioned also reliable source. So there is no debt of clinker availability for the Ammasandra plant.

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

Okay. I didn't understand your question. Okay. Yes, so we are sourcing the clinker from our Zuari plant, which are located nearby.

S
Shravan Shah
analyst

Okay. Okay. Got it. And sir, in terms of the staff cost, this quarter has gone up decently on Q-o-Q basis. From third quarter, it was INR 36 crores, now INR 45-odd crores. So any specific thing in this quarter or this run rate likely to continue?

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

No, no, these are -- this is fundamentally because of distribution of bonuses and renewable pay, et cetera.

A
Anil Sharma
executive

In March quarter, the actual value of this evolution of the retirement benefit also comes. So you can see, Mr. Shah, year-on-year basis, the figure was higher than the December quarter. And on top of that, then the annual increment is there. So every December, March quarter, you will see slightly higher on account of that benefit also.

S
Shravan Shah
analyst

So roughly, if I have to look at on the run rate quarterly basis from Q1, will it again come back to INR 41 crore, INR 42 crore, so currently INR 45 crore for this quarter. So just trying to understand the normal run rate quarterly.

A
Anil Sharma
executive

You're right. December, March quarter, slightly high. So June quarter, you will see -- to go back to December.

S
Shravan Shah
analyst

Okay. Okay. Okay. Got it. And sir, is it possible to share the KCAL cost for the third quarter, [ 1.8 ] for fourth quarter you have mentioned, but third quarter, what was the KCAL cost?

A
Anil Sharma
executive

We need to calculate that.

S
Shravan Shah
analyst

Sorry, sir?

A
Anil Sharma
executive

We need to calculate. But it was slightly higher. In December quarter, the kilocalorie cost was slightly higher than the March quarter. Around [ 2 ] was there in the December quarter.

S
Shravan Shah
analyst

Okay. Got it. And sir, the TSR, when you are saying 10%. So this 10% TSR is for FY '24. And also, we are seeing AFR is 80%. So if you can help me, what's the difference between this?

A
Anil Sharma
executive

It is between the quarter and the annual. So in the full year, our TSR for the authentic fuel were 8%, in the March quarter. Because gradually, we are ramping up, so our AFR consumption has been increasing. So in March quarter alone, it was 10%. So you can assume that here the -- this year was 8%. So there is a gradual increase in the March quarter even.

S
Shravan Shah
analyst

Okay. And this will further increase to how much and by when?

A
Anil Sharma
executive

Our target to increase this further to, authentic fuel, depending upon the cost of the authentic fuel availability in the market.

S
Shravan Shah
analyst

Sorry, how much to increase to -- at what level, sir?

A
Anil Sharma
executive

We'll see. When you target it to increase further.

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

See, alternative fuel in terms of thermal substitution rate today depends a lot on availability, on biomass, et cetera, on the costs, everything. So if you were to ask me for an exact number, it is difficult to predict. But in terms of our commitment to the environment and reduction of carbon footprint, we would like to go on increasing it subject to availability of AFR.

S
Shravan Shah
analyst

Okay. And lastly, sir, this environmental clearance for Gujarat expansion. So just broadly trying to understand,at least it will take 6 months, 1 year or more than 1 year, 2 years. So just trying to understand, even if we, let's say, start when can the plant can come up? So previously, I think you have said that you are looking at 2 million tonnes in current, 3 million, 3.5 million tonne grinding. So will it come in next 2 or 3 years, that is -- is there a possibility even if it comes, let's say, in next 1 month also?

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

No, we would not like to make a speculative statement. I think, this is -- the ball is purely on the government's court, and it will take its own time. We are following up doing all the necessary work from our end. But at this point in time, we are unwilling to put a date to it, because it's purely speculation. It only depends on when the final clearance is available from the government. Obviously, from that -- it will take 3 years' time.

S
Shravan Shah
analyst

Okay, from that 3 years' time. And the plan still remains the same, 2 million clinker. In terms of the expansion, the plan remains the same 2 million clinker and 3 million tonnes, 3.5 million tonnes of grinding?

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

Yes.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Aman Agarwal from Equirus Securities.

A
Aman Agarwal
analyst

And congratulations on good growth registered in FY '24 on the volume side. Sir, I wanted to understand the management philosophy with respect to the channel strength. So awaiting the approvals, are we open to maybe look at some outsourced grinding arrangement in the similar region, maybe to create a grinding awareness or to increase the channel strength over that region until the plant comes up?

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

You're talking about Gujarat?

A
Aman Agarwal
analyst

Gujarat market, yes sir.

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

No, as of now, there's no such plan throughout the strategy.

A
Aman Agarwal
analyst

Okay. And given that this plant is still with clearance. Are we also looking at maybe some other region. I'm asking especially as the central region has been increasingly witnessing higher competitive intensity. So since we are already standing on net cash position, is that something that management also will be going around to look at some other regions to enter into?

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

Aman, what -- are you talking about other geographies?

A
Aman Agarwal
analyst

Other geographies, yes sir.

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

Yes. So that will purely depend on what's available. I mean, we are open to both organic as well as inorganic growth.

A
Aman Agarwal
analyst

Anything on the drawing board series in terms of newer expansion other than the Gujarat plant?

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

That is not something that we would like to declare right now. We'll do it as and when we are ready.

A
Aman Agarwal
analyst

Understood. Understood. I just want to ask.

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

Yes, but we are looking at growth. That's the only that I'm allowed to make at this point in time.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Uttam Kumar Srimal from Axis Securities Limited.

U
Uttam Srimal
analyst

Sir, in terms of premium cement, we are already at 34%. So how much more we can -- are trying to go in terms of selling of premium cement?

A
Anil Sharma
executive

Premium cement composition.

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

Okay. Okay. So yes, as you heard that we've launched a new cement, which is a functionally different cement. So I think our ambition is to reach a number of -- around 45% in the next 2 years. So that's what we are gunning for.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Shravan Shah from Dolat Capital.

S
Shravan Shah
analyst

Sir, this quarter in terms of the change in inventory number, that is a INR 14-odd crores. So in terms of the quarter, and actually, that number is a decently high, INR 115-odd comes. So that reduces the overall cost and that leads to a higher EBITDA per tonne. So just trying to understand, will it kind of normalizes or reverses in the Q1. So -- and then given the INR 6 drop in the price, so the Q1 EBITDA per tonne likely to be much lower than the fourth quarter number? That's the directionally wanted to understand.

A
Anil Sharma
executive

No, we can't interpret this increase or decrease of inventory with the cost of production. This is a mix of the clinker and cement which we produce, and then basically in line with your inventory. So it depends upon that will be, how much quantity we produce next quarter, how much we are selling in this quarter. But it is not impacting your cost of production at all. So with respect to directionally profitability of the quarter, it depends upon the price in the market and the volume in the market.

S
Shravan Shah
analyst

Okay. Okay. Because, I'm just trying to understand, I didn't get the -- clearly, in terms of how our costs will reduce from now onwards given the INR 6 drop in the cement prices. So from the current levels, if one has to understand directionally how the profitability can inch up, because we are only looking at 6%, 7% kind of a volume growth, no any such major expansion is there. So that's the worry. Just trying to understand.

A
Anil Sharma
executive

Generally, we don't give guidance for the quarter or the year.

Operator

This will be the last question for today, which is from the line of Aman Agarwal from Equirus Securities. Mr. Agarwal, kindly proceed with your question, sir.

A
Aman Agarwal
analyst

Hello. Am I audible now?

Operator

Yes, sir.

A
Aman Agarwal
analyst

Yes. Sir, just wanted to understand the volumes front for April and May. So we understand that there has been no kind of a double-digit deal growth that the central market broader bracket has gone through. What's your view on that? And how you're viewing the 1Q volumes for book?

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

No. So as of now, yes, the market has degrown. There is no doubt about it.

A
Aman Agarwal
analyst

I just wanted to understand and get the clarity on the same, sir.

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

So the number that you indicated is right. I think the entire industry, all the major players, the degrowth would be in that range. It will be a double-digit degrowth for April and May, but we are looking at an uptick in June post the election dates are over, because there would be a lot of pent-up demand. So June in our estimation should be much better. So probably, it shall be difficult to...

A
Aman Agarwal
analyst

Okay. Just wanted to understand.

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

According to your uptick of the [indiscernible]

A
Aman Agarwal
analyst

15% to 20% would be that is that April and May degrowth would have been?

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

I would not be able to comment on what everyone would perform.

A
Aman Agarwal
analyst

No, on the broader market.

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

Well, if I would have it, I guess, it would be in the early double digits. That's all I can tell you right now.

Operator

As that was the last question for today, I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Vaibhav Agarwal for closing comments. Over to you, sir.

V
Vaibhav Agarwal
analyst

Thank you, Michelle. Sir, just a clarification. Did you say on the call that the guidance is about 6% to 7% volume for FY '25, if I heard it right?

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

I didn't understand your question. Can you repeat that again?

V
Vaibhav Agarwal
analyst

On the call, did you say that the guidance for FY '25 volume growth is about 6% to 7%?

A
Anil Sharma
executive

We have estimated the industry growth of around 6% to 7% volume growth.

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

Yes.

V
Vaibhav Agarwal
analyst

Okay. Any guidance for Heidelberg from volume perspective for FY '25?

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

No. At this point in time, no.

V
Vaibhav Agarwal
analyst

Okay. And sir, any views on industry consolidation going forward? Or how do you see the industry consolidating, and especially with players like JK Cement, et cetera, adding large capacities in our region or maybe coming up with new lines? So how -- do you see any better pricing scenario in the longer term? I'm not asking of the near term, but in the longer term, the pricing scenario getting more stable and better with larger players are also coming in, in a big way in the Central India markets.

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

Well, that's actually right. At this point in time, difficult to predict. But as you know, these always go through cycles. Whenever there's a new capacity in the market, until the capacity is kind of at least 65%, 70% tuned up, there would be pressure on prices. After that, prices typically tend to stabilize. So whether that's a larger player, whether that's a smaller player, it hardly makes any difference.

V
Vaibhav Agarwal
analyst

And any views on consolidation?

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

I think, consolidation is the way to go, I mean, into the future, but it's difficult to put a timeline to it. But some kind of consolidation is bound to happen.

V
Vaibhav Agarwal
analyst

Okay. Okay. Right. And we are also kind of open to evaluate inorganic, because we are sitting on, the reason is because, we are just open to evaluate opportunities is what I would say. Is it fair to say?

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

Yes, absolutely. Absolutely. Absolutely.

V
Vaibhav Agarwal
analyst

That answers it, sir. Thanks a lot for your time on the call. On behalf of PhillipCapital India Private Limited, we'd like to thank the management of HeidelbergCement, and also many thanks to the participants for joining the call. Michelle, you can now conclude the call. Thank you very much, sir.

Operator

Thank you, sir. Thank you, management.

J
Joydeep Mukherjee
executive

Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of PhillipCapital India Private Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.

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