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GTPL Hathway Ltd
Earnings Call Analysis
Q3-2024 Analysis
GTPL Hathway Ltd
As India's largest multi-system operator (MSO), the company has continued to expand its reach in both cable TV and broadband services, crossing a significant milestone of 1 million active broadband subscribers. The industry landscape suggests favorable conditions for growth as smaller competitors are becoming more conservative, potentially opening up opportunities for increased market share.
The digital cable TV subscriber base registered an increase to 9.4 million with a 6% year-over-year growth, while the broadband business also grew by adding 110,000 new subscribers, representing a 12% year-over-year increase. The expansion continues with a 6% year-over-year increase in homepass subscribers, now at 5.6 million, with 75% of them being potential FTTX conversion candidates.
The company's consolidated revenue ascend by 22% to INR 8,607 million, with the broadband revenue alone scaling up by 9% to INR 1,352 million. The EBITDA margin stands at a healthy 15.2%, with an operating EBITDA increase of 12%. Profit After Tax (PAT), however, reflects at INR 247 million, with executive discussion indicating future improvements and a recovery from the impact of COVID-19 and auditor-related policy changes.
Management is optimistic about improving EBITDA margins over time, aiming to achieve between 17% to 18% in the next quarter, with a strategic goal to return to the consolidated EBITDA margin by FY 2025. These improvements indicate the company's commitment to increasing profitability and operational efficiency.
The company anticipates a modest increase in total depreciation, from INR 319 crores in FY '23 to a projected range of INR 340 crores to INR 342 crores in the current fiscal year, as a result of an audit policy revision. Looking forward, management expects to perform better than the previous year's PAT of INR 115 crores, with a confident revival in business rhythm and plans to disclose more detailed projections in the upcoming quarter.
During the quarter, there was an increment of 15,000 subscribers, slightly lower than expected due to various ongoing changes. Despite the slowdown, the company is planning to see an increase in subscriber additions ranging from 25,000 to 35,000 per quarter moving forward, acknowledging the context of an industry growing at a rate faster than 20%.
The company's market allocation is diverse, comprising approximately 25% in the East and 35% in the West of India. Although currently the presence is minimal in the South and North regions, there is an optimistic outlook on future contributions to market share, reflecting a potential increase in the share of business.
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Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Q3 FY '24 Results Conference Call of GTPL Hathway, hosted by Emkay Global Financial Services. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded.
I would now to hand the conference to over Mr. Pulkit Chawla from Emkay Global Financial Services. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Good evening, everyone, and welcome to the Q3 FY '24 earnings call for GTPL Hathway. From the management, we have with us today, Mr. Anirudhsinh Jadeja, Promoter and Managing Director; Mr. Piyush Pankaj, Business Head, CATV and Chief Strategy Officer; and Mr. Saurav Banerjee, Chief Financial Officer.
Without any further delay, I should now hand over the call to the management for the opening remarks. Over to you, gentlemen.
Thank you, Pulkit. Good evening, everyone. A warm welcome to everybody to the earnings call of GTPL Hathway to discuss financial performance of quarter 3 FY 2024.
We continue to be the largest MSO in India and increasing our footprint in both cable TV and broadband business. The broadband business continues to go from strength to strength as we achieved the milestone of 1 million active subscribers during the quarter.
Our strategy for growth remains unchanged as we look for opportunities for inorganic growth via acquisition while actively pursuing organic growth in subscribers. The industry landscape in both our business segments, namely cable TV and broadband, bodes well for our growth strategy as smaller players will start getting conservative.
I will now hand over the call to Mr. Piyush Pankaj, who will take you through the quarterly business and financial performance of the company. Piyush?
Thank you, Mr. Jadeja. Good evening, everyone.
Our digital cable TV subscriber base as on 31st December 2023, stands at 9.40 million. Paying subscribers stand at 8.7 million [indiscernible]. On a Y-o-Y basis, the increase in active and paying subscribers is 500,000, a 6% increase; and 400,000, a 5% increase, respectively. Subscription revenue saw an increase of 17% Y-o-Y to INR 3,249 million and 15% on 9 months basis to INR 9,456 million.
In the broadband business, as Mr. Jadeja mentioned and we have mentioned in our press release, we have crossed 1 million active subscribers, ending the quarter at 1.005 million. We have added 110,000 new subscribers, an increase of 12% on a Y-o-Y basis.
Homepass subscribers stood at 5.60 million as on 31st December 2023, of which 75% are available for FTTX conversion. Homepass grew by 450,000 on a Y-o-Y basis. The broadband ARPU for quarter 3 FY '24 remained at INR 460. The average data consumption per customer per month stood at 345 GB per customer, an 11% increase Y-o-Y.
We have continued to post consistently higher revenues every quarter. On a consolidated level, revenues grew by 22% Y-o-Y to INR 8,607 million. The broadband revenue stood at INR 1,352 million and registering a growth of 9% on a yearly basis. The consolidated EBITDA stood at INR 1,305 million, with an EBITDA margin of 15.2%. PAT for quarter 3 FY '24 stood at INR 247 million. Operating EBITDA saw an increase of 12% Y-o-Y to INR 1,171 million, primarily led by higher growth in subscription income and ISP income.
The standalone revenue stood at INR 5,217 million, an increase of 16% Y-o-Y and 2% Q-o-Q. EBITDA stood at INR 757 million, a 6% Y-o-Y and EBITDA margin of 14.5%. PAT for quarter 3 FY '24 stood at INR 191 million.
I would like to welcome our new CFO, Mr. Saurav Banerjee. Mr. Banerjee is a chartered accountant with over 30 years of experience, having worked with GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals, Times Group, GATI Limited, Rosy Blue India, Tribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri Limited and KEAN Group.
Thank you, everyone. I will request Saurav to interact.
Thank you, Mr. Piyush. Hello, and welcome to this earnings call. I am Saurav Banerjee, CFO, GTPL Hathway Limited, and I look forward to interacting with the investor community and other stakeholders as we go along over the next few quarters.
We can now begin the Q&A session.
[Operator Instructions] We have our first question from Mr. CA Nihar Shah from Crown Capital.
My first question is on the margins. Like we mentioned in the Q2 con call that our EBITDA margins can reach 20% by Q4. So is it achievable, right?
We have -- if you see this quarter, the EBITDA margin is at 15.2% on a consolidated basis. This is mainly because the placement and marketing has gone up. And accordingly, the contribution of placement and marketing in EBITDA is almost negligible. So that's why if you see, we are doing at 15%. We are looking forward that this will improve to somewhere 17% to 18% in that quarter 4, and we will remain there.
But this time, if you see the presentation, we have given the operating margins. A new slide has been introduced, and we have given the operating margin where it has shown that the margin is intact throughout and the business are doing -- the whole businesses as at the same margin, and we are getting the same margin over the years.
So that's the analysis you can see, and we will come to know that we have taken out the onetime income on that. And we have met pay channel with the placement and marketing [ income ] so that we can come to the right margin, correct margin of the business operations. So that -- you can see that in that slide.
Okay. Okay. And what kind of EBITDA margins can we assume going ahead? So 17% to 18% [ as ] we said in Q4. So let's say FY '25, what are our expectations for the margin?
No, we are going to improve the margin with the time. So right now, I am talking about quarter 4, that this should be between 17% to 18%. We are looking forward that by FY '25, we should come back to [ consolidated ] EBITDA margin on the overall business, which was there. Yes, operating margin is still intact for the whole business. But as the EBITDA also, we are looking forward that somewhere we could achieve 20%, 21% in the earlier mark by FY '25.
Okay. sir. And one last question. What was -- what will our depreciation look like this year and next year, right? The numbers, is it possible?
Yes. So if you see the overall depreciation last year, because if you remember in quarter 4, we have seen that we have changed the policy on the depreciation based on the recommendation by our auditor, Deloitte. And the total depreciation was at around INR 319 crores in the FY '23. We are looking forward that this year, it will be somewhere around INR 340 crores to INR 342 crores, which is going to be -- which is increase of somewhere INR 20 crores to INR 24 crores. If you see, we are doing around INR 400 crores of CapEx every year, which is -- which we are doing. And on the INR 400 crores of CapEx, we used to [ line this ] somewhere between 8 to 9 years for both cable and broadband business.
So if we calculate on that basis, depreciation will increase by '24 to '25 [indiscernible] in the year, and that is what we are going to see in the FY '24.
Our next question is from Mr. Vinit Manek from Karma Capital Advisors.
I have 2 questions from my side. The first is on the absolute profitability. So it has been [ now ] consistently 8 to 9 quarters that we have seen a degrowth in our absolute profit after tax. So how should we look at that going forward? Because earlier, we were doing close to around INR 50 crores, INR 55 crores of quarterly PAT, which is now more than half of that number. So how should we look at that going forward?
So Vinit, now I will say that business is almost stabilized. Last 2 years, you will see a lot of changes has happened. COVID has impact the business [indiscernible] numbers, and Q3 has happened. The new auditor has come, which has [ got ] changed some of the policies. And now we are at a stable level where with confidence that I'm saying that EBITDA will -- depreciation will be this much and there's no changes going forward and all.
So we are looking forward that last year, we did around INR 115 crores of PAT. And this year, we are going to do better than that. And the PAT increase, which we have seen from 2017 to 2021, we are going to have the growth rate more than almost there or more than that again in the business. So that's -- the rhythm of the business is coming back. That's what we are seeing, and we are very hopeful we are going to achieve that [ soon here ].
So by next 3 quarters, can we expect INR 40 crore kind of a PAT run rate on a quarterly...
Right now, this quarter, we did INR 34 crores. We are going to do better than this in next quarter period. And clearly, we will see that the rise in the PAT. I can't ensure INR 40 crores number. But yes, I think in the next call, when we are ready with our whole plan for the next year, our operating plans, and we will be more confident to say INR 40 crores, INR 45 crores or INR 35 crores [indiscernible] number.
Okay. And sir, also coming to the broadband subscribers, the incremental quarter-on-quarter addition was very less during the quarter despite of us saying that we have some partner subscribers coming in for us. So what's the status over there? And how are we looking incrementally things happening on that side?
Right now, this quarter, which I talked about, we have just gone up by 15,000. And the reasons are -- a few of the reasons are [indiscernible] going on and on, and we are concentrating towards the -- we ensure that the total business works on that way. As you know, a lot of changes have happened on the [ medical ] side also, the [ trading ] side and all. So those are the reasons where that is happening.
And some of the technical business which we had in the B2B, that has already [indiscernible] over now. And on this 15,000, around 7,000 is for B2B and the rest, B2C. Till date, we're just around B2B of 65,000 in the overall. And we are looking forward that from next quarter onwards, we should start getting good numbers on this.
Yes, this quarter is a bit muted. We had crossed the 1 million subscriber base. But on the addition side, this quarter was a bit muted. One of the accessible part of that [indiscernible] from next quarter onwards. So we are hopeful that we will come back to seeing additions of between 25,000 to 35,000 per month -- per quarter, sorry.
Yes, because I was just comparing the industry numbers from the TRAI website. So on a year-on-year basis, the whole industry is growing faster than 20%. And we have not been able to -- on a lower base, we have not been able to grow and such. So just the context on that.
Yes, because of -- one of the reason, Vinit, is the -- that, as you know, our ticket price and other -- when we get the customer onboarded, our ticket size is somewhere around 9 to 10 months. It will still be after today. We have not [ consol ] monthly or quarterly right now.
And that is one of the reasons that our growth rate is a bit muted on that because other players have already gone on there, but their churns are very high. And it's more of like what capital investment you are doing and how much you are losing on the capital side.
So those things come into the questions. And -- but yes, we are still sticking to that 9 to 10 months, which is working for us right now. And we look forward to come back to that type of growth again. And we are hopeful we'll see that -- we will start seeing the better results and better additions in the -- from next quarter onwards.
Okay. And just one last one from my side. So on the Metro Cast, we had a press release this quarter saying that there is some delay on the merger side of it. So do we expect it to complete by March '24?
Yes, it is getting -- the expectation is that by end of February or mid of February, all the things will be done. It's a joint call from our side as 31st December, we wanted to do it already. All the obligations from each side has been completed and now. But as you say, if something doesn't happen, the new CFO has come to the whole system now. So we have delayed it [ possibly ] by 1.5 months, and it will be completed.
Okay. So the subscribers and the subscription revenue for the same has already come in for us. So we have started accounting for that.
Yes, yes. That's already [indiscernible]. So all consolidation is being done, but [indiscernible] with the Metro Cast consolidated line by line.
Okay. And there will be some cash outflow towards the shares that we will be purchasing from the promoters. So there will be some cash outflow...
[ No, between ] the cash outflow and whatever we have to do the obligation as per the agreement, the supply of the boxes and existing [indiscernible]. But a little bit done. There is no financial obligations that remain. We just have to do the -- increase the security [indiscernible] on that.
[Operator Instructions] [ Mr. Balasubramaniam ] from Aryan Capital.
Sir, I just want to check. We have 9.4 million active subscriber on the cable TV business. Like we can expect 10 million subscription in the next quarter itself. And I just want to understand about the penetration levels, especially in the rural market. If you go to clarify, like North, South, West, East, like where we are majorly focusing on?
Yes, we are trying, as you say that we are adding a year-to-year basis and quarter-to-quarter basis, and [ it is ] 9.4 million. By March or April, by March, April onwards in our FY '24, hoping that we'll be close to 10 million someday. If we cross it, it's going to be very good, but yes, we are close to 10 million.
And if you talk about the market scenarios, yes, already that if I talk about the percentage term, we are somewhere around -- out of this, 25% is in the East. And if I take out the West, we're around -- somewhere around 34%, 35% in the West. And West [ till ] South and North, not that we had given that we have just started a year back only [indiscernible] hardly right now.
But we are hopeful that, that market is going to be [indiscernible]. And we have improving very fast within [indiscernible] that we've launched. And we are already at overall in 5% to 6%, and we are hopeful that it will start contributing to [indiscernible] 20% [indiscernible].
Sir, like 35% East and West to 34%, 35%, is that growth comp or a percentage of share business you're talking?
So, I'm taking by the share of business.
And South and North, how much, sir?
South is somewhere around -- right now, South is somewhere around 15% to 16%. [indiscernible] and Karnataka and Andhra, [indiscernible] the remaining 17% [indiscernible].
The remaining [indiscernible]. Sir, like we have been achieved a good quarter on the top line side. Like earlier quarter, we have mentioned around 18% to 20% CAGR and [indiscernible] revenue, and EBITDA growth of 12% to 13%. And like how do you see, going forward, a better year adding more subscribers? And the realizations also like -- realization is moving slowly. How do we achieve this kind of revenue [indiscernible]?
See, that CAGR, which was earlier this year of the whole revenue of somewhere around 17%, 18%, and EBITDA CAGR was 20%, 21%. Yes, this year, we have seen that in the 9 months to 9 months basis, if you talk about the operating side. Operation side, we are doing at around 15% in the subscription, and broadband is 11% 9 months to 9 months. And EBITDA is somewhere around 5% to 6% [ rate ].
This year, you're right that in Q3 has come into the play and we have to increase our prices in the market, plus sales [ doesn't ] happen on the [indiscernible] and all. But now that penetration of '23 are now back to the same, you can say, stable, so we are looking forward that the next 2 years' time, we have started -- we will again start getting those type of CAGRs in this business.
Got it. Sir, you have earlier mentioned about CapEx of INR 400 crores or something. I missed that number. This CapEx is for maintenance CapEx or like buying any assets kind of thing?
No, the total CapEx, the estimate of CapEx, which we have given for that yearly is INR 400 crores. [ Year-to-date ], we have [ bid ] INR 305 crores of the CapEx. Out of that, CATV CapEx has -- broadband CapEx is INR 154 crores. This is still quarter 3.
[Operator Instructions] Our next question is from [ Rama Manohar ], an individual.
Sir, Just I have one question regarding the investments that we have made so far. I think last 3, 4 years, we made investments of around INR 1,000 crores to INR 1,500 crores. When the top line is -- went by just [ 1 by 1 ]. And the bottom line is, I think, 50% down. Just I think as a company, we need to think about whether the investments are really useful to contribute any bottom line because after spending INR 1,000 crores, not even maintaining the net profit margins, I think it is somewhat -- I think companies that's going in the right direction are -- how we are going to control other expenses.
The depreciation is going continuously very high like all of us are in Q4 are, and suddenly, you said not even in 1 quarter -- just before 1 quarter, you said the 20% margin and then it will come to 15% or 14%. How you are going to see the next quarter or next 1- or 2-year growth? Can you please clarify?
Yes. So that's why I explained that, that you should refer to the operating margin, which has given the -- we have [ included in the presentation ] rather than going into this EBITDA margin because the contribution of whatever increase is happening in the market and placement revenue is in low in the EBITDA side because the pay channel is increasing on the sales level.
So marketing and incentive and pay channels, always we have to see by netting that, which I'm [ spilling ] it from the last 3 years. But whenever we do the analysis, we do it after netting the pay channel costs and marketing and placement revenues. And then we will see the market, which we have presented this time in our presentation -- in the investor presentation that you can see.
If you go and see that, you will find that the business is really healthy still. Still at the 9-month level, we are growing 25% of operating margin, which was 26% last year. So we are maintaining the business as we go forward. We just have to take out onetime deferred revenue of activation, and we have to take out other nonoperating income, which is 1x, which we have shown, which has taken out of that analysis [indiscernible] the operating margin.
So what the business [ held ], we should go and see that operating margin rather than the real margin which is coming there because that is more of recounting. Yes.
But even if you take out the activation, all the activation will come out, say, around INR 100 crores, around [ INR 150 crores ]. 3 years back, we made a INR 200 crores [indiscernible]. If we deduct that INR 100 crores, say, we were there at INR 100 crores. Now also, we are at INR 100 crore profit. And what is the use of spending extra [indiscernible]. On that, if you see, we are doing around operating EBITDA of INR 352 crores. And there is FY '23, we'll get the full INR 32 crores. So we are going to cross that.
So second. Second, you have to understand that, which I explained in the last 3 calls, that we have to do some CapEx to maintain the business as the churn has gone up in the CATV business, which was negligible earlier. From last 3 years or 2.5 years, we have seen the churn has gone up. So some CapEx is going to maintain the business. And there, you will see that those CapEx is not contributing towards the increase in the revenue side and all.
But to maintain the CapEx for that, [indiscernible] maintain the business, you have to do that CapEx. And that is where you will see the difference. That's how that difference is coming. And the path is getting us to the light now because those patterns, which you can say whatever you have to for the CapEx for maintaining the business is going to stabilize now.
So when you started doing it, you will see that there is impact on the depreciation. Depreciation is going up. But now from this year onwards, because depreciation also say, which I explained that what depreciation we did last year and what we are doing this year is getting stabilized now. There is no surprise in the depreciation [ sales ]. So that's where the business is going.
We talked about the health of the business and all. I'll just give you that India, 320 million households now, and still, TV households is just 200 million. Still, 120 million TV household has to come into India. Out of 200 million, the cable and satellite we talked about, that is around 170 million. So still from 170 million to 320 million, 150 million households are there, which has to come into the picture for the -- on the television side, this cable, [ et cetera ], items.
Plus, there is a lot of opportunity in the cable side of the smaller players. We are just having 9 million, all consolidated. If you consolidate all the players, the organized players, they have just around 30 million subscribers, 30 million, 35 million subscribers. Still, there are [ 45 million ] subscribers, which is with the independent smaller MSOs, where you can go and consolidated that whole market. So a lot of opportunities are there where you can -- as you start investing and doing that, you will start getting more and more numbers and more and more businesses.
Same if you talk about the broadband business. The total wired in the broadband is around 35 million in the country out of 320 million households, which is almost around 11% only, not more than that. So still a lot of journey has to happen in the wired and the whole broadband sector. New technologies are also coming, but everyone is going to survive. If you talk about wired in foreign countries, we talk about China. China is crossing 60% right now, the penetration. If you talk about Eurozone, Eurozone is already at 70% penetration. We talk about Korea, 85%. We talk about the U.S., already crossing 75% wired broadband.
So India is still lacking on that. We are just at 11%, which this 11% at least should go to at least 40% to 45% in the next 5 years' time. So there is a very, very big opportunity from 35 million households or somewhere around 150 million households in next 4 years or 5 years.
Yes, it's more of what technology will come and all. Yes, wireless is there. But the wireless is going to convert into wired slowly as more and more digital requirements have come in for the individuals and households. So that's why if you talk about the health of the business, these 2 businesses are at very good healthy health levels, and the growth is going to be there in the -- both the businesses.
Yes, sir. Only my concern is the average is at least...
I'm sorry to interrupt, [ Mr. Manohar ]. May we request you to return to the question queue for follow-up questions as there are several participants waiting for their turn?
Next question is from the line of [ Rahul Jain ], an individual investor.
Am I audible?
You're audible.
So what is the average churn for other players in the digital cable? And what is our churn?
So the industry churn, if we talk about, is around 32% to 33% right now. Our churn is somewhere restricted to 17% -- 15% to 17% yearly basis. So that is there.
And so like why is so much gap between the industry and our churn rate?
Because of the business management, because of the business relationship on the ground, because of the better team, because of leveraging our strength of being the #1 MSO, those factors. The leadership factor, the massive penetration factor, the relationship, the stronger team, all those things.
Okay. So my follow-up is like historically, our net pay channel cost grew by around 3% Y-on-Y basis. Given it will jump up by mid-teens for this year, do we see any adverse effect on churn rate as less subscribers become actively paying or more aware?
No, no, no. That is -- our [indiscernible] is stable in the Q3 in [indiscernible]. And whatever increase in the rate has to happen from last year from, you could say, from May onwards. And whatever that has to be [indiscernible] the plan, that has a little bit taken place. By October, November, the ground has got stabilized totally.
So we are not seeing that -- in fact, if you see our operating margin consolidated [indiscernible] operating margin, you will find that net [ activation ] of cost has gone down this quarter. And overall increase in the 9 months is just 13%, which is underlying of what the subscription income has increased.
My second question is like, can you share what is the project income from -- in terms of size of the project, operational details, profitability and expected date of execution?
Yes. So this project is granted by Gujarat ISP Private Limited, that is GISL, after tendering of INR 50 crores, which includes the material and O&M, wherein the [indiscernible] from [indiscernible] of 8,000 was [indiscernible] under Phase 1 and Phase 2 as part of that project, has to be made WiFi-enabled by supplying the materials and installation of the same as a grant from [indiscernible] services. This project is almost over, and we have taken the substantial revenues in this quarter. And the rest of revenue will come in for the quarter as O&M. The margin is somewhere around 12% to 13% of the [indiscernible] project.
Our next question is from the line of Mr. Vinay Jain from Karma Capital.
I hope I'm audible.
Yes.
Yes. So I just wanted to check with you. So again, you have given a growth prospect indications for both the cable TV and broadband.
Mr. Jain, you're not audible to us. It's not clear.
Is this better?
Yes.
Yes, it is better now. Yes, please go ahead.
So you -- in the earlier -- with the earlier participant, you had mentioned the growth prospects for both the cable TV and broadband business. And for broadband, again, for the industry, we are seeing that sort of a growth. So penetration has gone from 7%, say, a couple of years back to now, 11%, 12%.
So again, industry, in a way, is growing, but somehow that growth is not getting reflected in our numbers. So again, I just wanted to understand what are we doing or maybe your maybe medium-term strategy to get the volume back for both digital cable and broadband business. And again, at the same time, ensuring that we grow the business profitably.
Yes, you're right on that because see, as I explained earlier also in the call that our B2C business of broadband is mainly in Gujarat. The 6 cities where we have [indiscernible], and we have a network -- own network [indiscernible] and we maintain. And B2C business is restricted to that, which is like more of a growth area these are the bigger cities, we can say, capital cities. Gujarat, the whole of Gujarat, where we have already #1 and penetrated well. The [indiscernible] Nagpur, Pune, Gujarat, Varanasi, Patna and Jaipur, all capital cities...
I'm sorry to interrupt, sir. Could you please come a little closer to the mic?
Yes. Am I arguably?
Yes.
Yes. So if you see, that's the B2C business. So all our India level, we have gone for the B2B business, which is still to be taken off, you can see because we are finalizing the technical aspects. And already, we just have around 65 [ case ] subscribers, which is coming this year from B2B. And we are hopeful that for the next quarter and the next year, this is going to be the year of B2B business to be taken off the [ development ] side. And there, you can see that we will come back to our growth level and all. B2C, yes, whatever growth is happening right now that is happening in the B2C, and then to be in the older markets. The new markets and all is going to give us more.
Other players have grown because they have grown from the 0 to this level. As you know that [indiscernible] started, and [indiscernible] started the business around 3 years back. And already, we are doing good on that. Geo is mainly totally on the B2C [indiscernible]. We are doing good, pretty good. So we are going to have the same effect as we go forward on that.
So yes, you are right. From [ continuing ] subscriber base, which was there around 2 years back, the wired, it has gone up to around -- in 3 years' time has gone up to around 35 million. We are hopeful that next 4 to 5 years is going to be very high growth, where we will see growth of the industry by 50%, 60%, 70% straightly. And in the 5 years' time, we're touching on 140 million to 150 million. So that's the thing we're looking forward.
So ex of Geo, what would be the industry growth for broadband business?
That's -- I've already told you that what we are looking forward on what the general reports are saying that what will happen. There are reports available on the investor side that gives the projection from the industry that how it will shape. I think we have to [indiscernible] that. We can't have the talk on this, but I think it should be off-line. We don't -- it's going to be a little bit [ off ].
Sure, sure, sir. But again, the reason for asking that was, again, if you see organically, the industry, there is a net addition, which is happening. Vinit mentioned about a 20% growth on a year-on-year basis. So we, again, going through that inorganic route, the B2B acquisitions, which we are doing. So ideally, our growth rates should be faster, right, than the high single digit, which we are doing right now.
Well, I think we have to debate this off-line. I think that [indiscernible].
And then whatever do we have to do. So you're right on some aspects that, yes. But we have to go more on the final point, which I can explain that it will be [indiscernible] in this call. So we will have an off-line debate on this, yes.
[Operator Instructions] Next question is from the line of [ Rajiv Shah ], an individual investor.
Am I audible?
Yes, [ Rajiv ].
Yes. So sir, my question is, sir, in terms of the broadband active subscribers, sir, we have kind of seems to have settled down to a 12% to 13% kind of growth in terms of annual growth. Also, sir, like our subscriber count grew by 12.75% for FY '23. And sir, if I calculate your 9-month numbers on pro rata basis, sir, we may exit this year around at 12.5%. So sir, will this range of 12% to 13% would be a sustainable long-term growth rate for you in terms of active subscribers?
[ Rajiv ], if you remember, we have given the earlier estimate that we are going to be somewhere around between [ 32,000, 35,000 ] every quarter, somewhere around between 130,000 to 150,000, which we are at year-to-year basis, so 12,000. But yes, this year, in the 9 months, if we talk about, we are looking forward that next quarter, with the next quarter, we are going to be from somewhere around 110,000 to 120,000 somewhere in the next quarter.
So somewhere you can say the average is going to be 30,000 per quarter rather than 35,000 or 40,000 per quarter. But yes, we look forward that we will start continuing because we were doing earlier 50,000, down to 40,000. Right now, it is [ 7,000 ] to 30,000. We will look forward that once B2B business will come into the whole picture, we will start doing again 40,000, and that's what we are looking forward for the next [indiscernible].
Okay, sir. Sir, to the follow-up that, sir. Also, am I right in assuming that the ISP revenue growth for the annual basis going forward should be settled to around 16% to 17%?
Come again, come again. [ Rajiv ], your voice was a bit [ moving ] in the middle. Can you repeat the question?
Yes, sir. Sir, also, am I right in assuming that the ISP revenue growth for annual basis going forward, we should settle at around 16% to 17%?
Yes. So right now, if you see 9 months, we are at around 11% right now. It can be somewhere around 16% to 17%, you're right. That's what we are looking forward for next financials. But we will be more clear. As I say that how the growth will happen in FY '25 or FY '26 or FY '27, that we will give more clarity on that in the next quarter as we go forward.
But once we are close to ending this financial year and see how we are shaping up in the quarter 4. So I will say let's just wait for that quarter before I give you the [ estimate ].
Our next question is from the line of [ Srinivasan ], an individual investor.
My name is [ Srinivasan ]. So basically, I'm looking at the investor presentation. I just want to know there is a flattish line in the growth of cable TV business, okay? So I just want to know, looking forward, going forward, are we expecting a growth in the consolidated cable TV business? Or we expect the next 4 quarters to be flattish? Or is really growth expected?
You're talking about revenue growth? Or you're talking about...
No, I am talking about the active subscribers, active subscribers and paying subscribers. I want to know...
[indiscernible] for us. We have -- because we have added the gross addition is there, but good share by now. We have come back to the [indiscernible] as you know, this quarter, the World Cup is there, which has given us good gain in the beginning.
In terms of number and I gave that number. We have started seeing some of the companies go down and the churn a bit high after that. And by 31st December, we are seeing here is quite up. But we are hopeful as we have, if you see earlier quarters at all that we have additions, we are doing the additions and all. And next year is good because the IPL is coming, World Cup is coming for the T20. So every quarter, we will see some good events are there, which is going to give us boost.
And from next -- this quarter, we have not expanded any new [ places ] and all as you see. So we are going to expand in the next quarter or next year. So we are hopeful that, as I said, that we are going to close -- we are going to have to close this year to closer to 10 million subscriber base. So yes, we are looking forward for the growth, and that will happen.
And what about the broadband business, the active subscribers, okay? I can see 10 lakh active subscribers in the broadband, okay? That's a very good milestone, okay? What is the rate of expansion in the broadband business in the next 3 years? What is the rate of active subscribers increase that you're expecting?
Yes, just given that we were doing around 30,000 per quarter right now. And we are looking forward that we again come back to the rate of 40,000 to 45,000 or closer to 50,000 in the next 2 quarters. So that's the plan, which I've given [indiscernible].
And my last question. I just want to know how much your CapEx you're planning? I understand that you are planning to increase the CapEx on broadband as well as for cable TV, if needed, okay? I just want to know how the CapEx will happen. Is it going to be an outside borrowing? Or is it going to be internal accrual that you want to know?
No, no, no. We are doing all the CapEx through internal accrual. For the general businesses, we are doing it with the internal accruals that is for CATV and broadband growth. We have not gone for the borrowing now. So it is all from the internal accruals with CapEx.
Okay. Okay. All the best for the upcoming quarters and a very good set of numbers for this quarter. Congratulations for that.
Ladies and gentlemen, this was the last question of the day. I now hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.
I would like to express my thanks to every participant who took their time out to attend the call. I would also like to thank Emkay for arranging this call. For any queries, please feel free to connect with Orient Capital, who are our Investor Relations advisers. Thank you once again.
On behalf of Emkay Global Financial Services, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.