Deepak Fertilisers and Petrochemicals Corp Ltd

NSE:DEEPAKFERT

Earnings Call Transcript 2025-Q2

[Harmish Desai, analyst]

Thank you, Nikita. Good evening, and welcome to the second quarter and half year FY '25 Earnings Call of Deepak Fertilisers and Petrochemicals Limited hosted by PhillipCapital. From the management, we have Mr. Sailesh Mehta, Chairman and Managing Director; Mr. Deepak Rastogi, President and Chief Financial Officer; Mr. Tarun Sinha, President, Technical Ammonium Nitrate, Mr. Suparas Jain, VP, Corporate Finance; and Ms. Pallavi Bhalla, Head Investor Relations.

I would like to thank the management for giving us the opportunity to host this call. We will begin the call with opening remarks from Mr. Sailesh Mehta, followed by Mr. Deepak Rastogi for an update on financial performance, post which we'll have a Q&A session. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

[Sailesh Mehta, executive]

Thank you, Harmish. A very good afternoon to all of you, and I would like to warmly welcome each one of you in this Q2 FY '25 earnings call. I hope you had a chance to run through our earnings presentation, press release and the details which have been updated on our website. And I hope you have had an opportunity to somewhere study them.

But let me share with you some of the highlights as I see in the quarterly results. So at the outset, let me have the joy in sharing the highlights of the quarter results from the positive change that we have seen, the consolidated revenues grew by 13% and have crossed INR 2,700 crores for the quarter. EBITDA grew by 73% and stands to around INR 494 crores. The margins grew from 12% to 18%. And all of it culminating into a [ 2 -- 37% ] jump in the net profit to INR 240 crores for the quarter.

Now what of these have undercurrents that are one-off what are short term, what are the occurring will sustain and grow over a period. Could be the rightful curiosities from a strategic perspective? And let me share some of my thoughts on these areas.

A good monsoon while strongly supporting the crop nutrition business did bring some expected dampening in the Mining and Chemicals business. However, going forward, while enhanced water levels in the soil and the dams promise continued good agriculture season for rabi leading right up to next [ Kari ]. Clearing of the monsoon should trigger the revival of the mining sector, chemical sector in the second half.

In terms of the longer term and sustaining undercurrent, I would like to reiterate 4 major ones. So number one, quarter-after-quarter, we continue to get a very good polarization of the beautiful alignment of all our 3 businesses with the India growth story. The demand drivers continue to remain robust, and we see that under current emerging from India's needs for coal power or limestone cement or infrastructure, all of it giving very good tailwinds for the mining chemicals business. And so also the growing income levels, mid-income group levels growing and there, food habits moving to more of fruits and vegetables aligning beautifully with our crop nutrition business. And so also the China plus 1 and the move towards more and more specialty chemicals supports our Industrial Chemicals business.

So number one, the first under current which you are seeing play out quarter after quarter and having a sustaining positive effect has been -- this is beautiful alignment with the India growth story. Second that we see is a positive play emerging out of our backward integration into ammonia. And as you are well aware that the new ammonia world-scale ammonia plant kicked in some time back. And what it has done.

[Operator]

Sir, your voice is not coming.

[Unknown Executive]

I think we have lost Sailesh.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, the line for the Chairperson things to have disconnected. Please hold while we reconnect.

[Technical Difficulty]

Ladies and gentlemen, we have management is. Please go ahead, sir.

[Sailesh Mehta, executive]

Yes. Is my voice clear? It got suddenly disconnecting.

[Operator]

Yes, sir. Now it is clear. Please go ahead.

[Sailesh Mehta, executive]

So as I was saying, the second undercurrent that we are seeing panning out is our backward integration into the ammonia plant, which a world-scale ammonia plant that came up short while back. And what we are seeing is that it is emerging to be a very strong risk mitigator and a value capture for us and a very strong stabilizing foundation for all our downstream businesses. More so, as we look at the disturbing situation emerging in the Middle East, and we were just thinking that if we didn't have the ammonia plant, our dependence on a critical raw material coming from the Middle East would have been a matter of deep concern because of the issues emerging there and the shipping costs and so on and so forth. So this aspect of it is going to be a great risk mitigator to have our own ammonia facility across our current complex plus the price volatility that would emerge on the ammonia front will now be captured within the group rather than us being at the mercy of the pricing that will emerge out of worldwide situation.

We thought on the current that I'm seeing, which will have an ongoing strong impact is our intent and committed strategic journey from commodity to specialty based on very strong R&D and deep consumer segmentation and insights. In the crop nutrition business, we are seeing a growing basket of crop-specific nutrients and a growing and strong market acceptance on its efficacy. Obviously, in terms of improvement in yield, but also in terms of the quality of the produce. We have also now begun with the introduction of cross specific water sellable fertilizers. So the journey continues with, I would say, a very strong drive in the fertiliser business for sure.

Even in the Industrial Chemicals business, we are finding good inroads with steel grade nitric acid and pharma grade IPA. And in the mining chemical business, the team has executed all 15 visa projects, besides proving [ Aldanbas-N4 ] has a huge value addition for the end user segment. So the third undercurrent that I'm seeing, which will have a long-term impact is the committed drive from commodity to specialty or holistic solutions.

The fourth under current performance is to have also a long-term sustaining impact is the recent NCLT approved restructuring and demerger. What it will end up doing is not only unwind and unfold the real strengths of each of the businesses, but will bring the end-to-end focus right from the board member right down to the value officer for that specific business and, of course, make us attractive propositions for strategic alliances and global joint ventures --

Now beyond these 4 sustaining undercurrent that I shared, namely the alignment with the India growth story, the backward integration that ammonia brings, the commodity to specialty drive and the corporate restructuring, there are 2 other developments that I would like to share, which you may have read about. One is, of course, fire antidumping duty on IPA will also have a good long-term sustaining impact, both on the top line and bottom line or the industrial chemicals business. And the second is, we are seeing a very -- fastest CapEx plan, executing the technical ammonium nitrate Bhopal port project and with the -- nitric acid project. And those will have lasting positive undercurrent.

And unlike other typical CapEx programs, these 2 CapExes are hugely risk mitigated in view of, number one, the 40 years of operating experience behind these projects, we are not doing anything new. I mean we have experience of running time facilities and nitric acid asset facilities over the last 40 years. So no unknown areas whether it is in terms of safety, health, environment, operations rose regulations.

The second is that for both the products, we will be entering a market, again, where we have been there for the last 40 years. It is nothing new in terms of creating new customers or new distribution networks, nothing. All of it will be stepping into something which we have been doing since the last 40 years. And of course, in both the cases, the demand drivers continue to bind with the India growth story. So we feel that those CapEx plans are hugely risk mitigated.

So now with this strategic overview, let me now hand you over to Mr. Deepak Rastogi, to share the integrity and detailed figures and also questions that you may have. And before I and all my very best to each of you and your families for Dipawali. Thank you. Deepak?

[Deepak Rastogi, executive]

Yes. Thank you, Mr. Mehta. Am I audible?

[Operator]

Yes, sir, you are audible.

[Deepak Rastogi, executive]

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. I appreciate you joining us today for Deepak Fertilisers and Petrochemicals conference call to discuss our results for the second quarter and for the first half of financial year '25. I'm pleased to report that our performance for this quarter is a reflection of resilience and strategic initiatives we have undertaken in the recent years. We have achieved total voting revenue of INR 2,747 crores, with an operating EBITDA of INR 494 crores. This is for the second quarter of this year. This translates to an EBITDA margin of approximately 18%, representing significant year-on-year growth of approximately 690 basis points. The net profit for the quarter stood to INR 214 crores reflecting a 237% increase compared to the same period last year.

On the balance sheet side, we continue to work on the deleverage of debt. We have repaid INR 200 crores of debt ahead of the schedule. Therefore, overall debt has come down giving the card. I would past like to dwell deeper into the performance of our businesses. This is for the crop nutrition business performance during the Q2 of '25, for crop petition business, the sales volume of manufactured bulk fertilizers achieved is 268,000 metric tons, marking extraordinary growth of 83% over Q2 of last financial year, which is financial year '24. This quarter stands out as one of the best performances in the company's history.

Our strategic focus on high-performing products have started bearing fruits favorable monsoon conditions in core markets allowed us to drive sales of specialty fertilisers like Croptek, Smartek. Sales of Croptek reached 37,000 metric tons, reflecting a robust year-on-year growth of [ 7% ]. Our targeted campaigns for crops such as cotton and sugarcane have been effective to grow revenues. We continue to focus on high-quality specialty fertilizers like [ Salutet for Gripens ].

Looking ahead of to Q3, the above monsoon rain has greatly enhanced the ground level water promising strong Rabi season. We anticipate increased acreages for rabi crush crop particularly sugarcane and potato.

Regarding Industrial Chemicals business, nitric acid volumes slightly decreased by 1% on Y-o-Y basis, while IP volumes actually fell by 10% Y-o-Y. Despite that, the revenues overall for the Industrial Chemicals business actually grew by 9%. IP volumes were declined due to process constraints and plant shutdown as you are aware that the NT dumping duty has been implemented from October 22 of this year for a deviation of 5 years, which should actually help the domestic manufacture sustained margins going forward. The specialty stainless steel grade nitric acid has received positive feedback from the customers, and we continue to work to enhance the revenues from that perspective.

Demand and margin for nitric acid are expected to remain stable over the next few quarters. IP-based IPA demand and margins are expected to be stable and improving following the implementation of the [indiscernible] on Chinese supplies over the next few quarters.

Regarding the Mining Chemicals business, AN Melt sales volume increased by 16% Y-o-Y and 20% from first half of this year as compared to the first half of the last year. Overall sales volume decreased by 21% Y-o-Y in Q2 attributed to the planned shutdown and the lean period due to monsoon. Overall, revenues fell by 8% Y-o-Y, while in the first half, the volumes declined marginally by 1% of similar half of the last year, while revenue grows by 6% Y-o-Y. The plant undertook a planned shutdown of [indiscernible] to complete capacity demo limited resulting in increased capacity of from [ 537 ktpa to 587 kt ]. Consequently, production volumes were lower by 21% Y-o-Y and because it was planned. Looking forward, we expect the demand recovery in Q3 supported by growth in coal cement and steel production.

In summary, our strong performance this quarter is a testament of strategic initiatives we have undertaken, write backward integration and moving from commodity to facility and also introducing innovative product offering to our customers and consumers. We believe the steps we are taking will position us for sustained growth in the future.

Now I will open the floor for Q&A.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions]. The first question is from the line of Rishab Kang from Sacheti Family Office.

[Unknown Analyst]

Congratulations on the overall numbers and the margins. So how do you see the kind of margins going forward? Like we can expect 18% to be a steady state EBITDA margin?

[Sailesh Mehta, executive]

So just to clarify, are you asking for the consolidated 18% is what you're saying? Or is this is specific one?

[Unknown Analyst]

Consolidated.

[Sailesh Mehta, executive]

Yes, I think that we have been actually delivering these numbers over the past few quarters. And we think we have got that a sustainable level going forward. Obviously, there will always be some cyclicality involved going up and down within the bank, but that should be the way to go forward.

[Unknown Analyst]

Also regarding the new proposed corporate structure, right, the demerged entities, would they be separately listed?

[Deepak Rastogi, executive]

So the plan, obviously, is that each business would be separately listed at a appropriate point in time.

[Unknown Analyst]

Okay. like 1 to 2 years down the line?

[Deepak Rastogi, executive]

So there is no time line as such, but obviously, we would provide the time lines as we take those decisions going forward.

[Unknown Analyst]

Also, what's your road map on being net debt like how many years do you envision or take any plan for that, sir? And what's your take on the steady-state ROCE of the business? Yes.

[Deepak Rastogi, executive]

So purely from a net debt perspective, as you know that we really have 2 expansion plans, which are continuing going forward. One is for Bhopal port and the other is for [ talis ]. And hence, given that the repayments only starts post the COD, which is the commissioning happens. And hence, the deleverage of the balance would happen after that. However, the notable repayment cycles for all the businesses continues. And whenever we have an opportunity like we had an opportunity this quarter, we are able to at least fast-forward or expedite some of those repayments ahead of schedule.

[Unknown Analyst]

By the year-end, how much net debt do you think you will be having?

[Sailesh Mehta, executive]

So from a gross perspective, currently, we have delivered around [ INR 3,300 crores, INR 3,500 crores, INR 3,600 crores ]. So I would say additional drawdown of maybe around for the project. So there will be no other drawdowns, but we are expecting around to INR 400 crores worth of additional drawdowns for our projects going forward. So give or take, a gross number would be -- a maybe around [ INR 4,000 ] around that number is what we are expecting right now.

[Unknown Analyst]

By the year-end. And also the other fee front, right? So like what do you think will be the steady state ROCE of the business?

[Sailesh Mehta, executive]

So we will have to really work that out because there are 2 new projects which are coming in. And the EBITDA for those projects would only start obviously kicking in from -- effectively for -- on a yearly basis, close around '26, '27, right? That's the financial year.

And generally, the idea is that all IRR effectively of the new projects should be between 18% to 20%. So if they actually -- we continue to deliver this the ROCE will be far more, obviously, very, very high in terms of the deliveries. But until the time that happens because there is asset which is happening and there is no EBITDA to that. Obviously, the ROCE will be deferred for now.

[Operator]

The next question is from the line of Jenom from Swan Investments.

[Unknown Analyst]

Congratulations for a good set of numbers. Sir, my first question is, what was our contribution from ammonia savings in this quarter?

[Deepak Rastogi, executive]

So what we have balanced that -- thanks so much for your compliments. But purely from an overall contribution on EBITDA side, it is closer to around INR 45 crores to INR 50 crores. That's the number which we have. And these numbers would actually improve. One will go up and which we have been actually seeing those indications now. And mostly Q3 and Q4 when the winter kicked in, obviously, we have seen ammonia prices actually, which is basically harden, and this is to around [ 400 to 450 ] so if that happens, obviously, the margins would further improve going forward.

[Unknown Analyst]

At the current level of ammonia, what would be the contribution that we've been making on per tonne at [ $43 ], which you indicated for the month of October?

[Deepak Rastogi, executive]

So we basically don't obviously provide that data specifically, but I can tell you that -- and which we have been consistently telling that it's not -- ammonia prices are closer to $300 -- we will be obviously contribution positive. If the ammonia prices are $400 plus FOB, they would be [indiscernible] and that will continue. So obviously, the other thing which, obviously, we have been reinforcing it, and in fact Mr. Mehta if the ammonia prices are slightly lower, obviously, the benefit to will do other businesses. If the ammonia prices are actually higher, the benefit stays in the ammonia business and obviously, it doesn't flow through the other business. But overall, from a content-related perspective, it will not have make so faricimab difference across the company and across the group as we will capture the benefit or expense both sides here within the -- it would not have it. But obviously, if you are looking independently, this business, yes, there will be some cyclicality in one based on one ammonia prices, how it's actually move.

[Unknown Analyst]

But sir, given the recent in the ammonia prices, which had come down $300 now back to $430. How do you see a global demand supply playing out in terms of ammonia and in terms of the prices? And in the product and you can help us understand?

[Deepak Rastogi, executive]

So as far as the global economic is concerned, you can actually get through the history of how the prices have actually behaved. But most of the time, the prices have ranged between $400 to $450 dollars, FOB and most of the time, there are liabilities in between -- we saw last quarter, the prices were closer to around $275 to $300. This quarter, we are looking -- which is Q2, we saw it inching up to around $350. Going forward and all the time Q3 is definitely and Q3 and Q4 are from ammonia pricing perspective is high because of the harsh winters if it goes through, then the demand goes up and hence, the prices actually have an impact on the pace.

[Unknown Analyst]

Sir, second question. I mean just for the earlier participant in terms of your CapEx. Indicated that there would be additional INR 300 crores, INR 400 crores of drawdown during this fiscal year. And so now both the project Bhopal port, the nitric acid project is likely to come out in FY '26. So what is the incremental CapEx that we will be spending in financial year '26 and post the completion of this CapEx, what will be added -- big debt?

[Deepak Rastogi, executive]

So if either to sum up what you were asking is, we are expecting the feedback to sometimes financial year end of financial year, '25 or '26 or '26, '27 to be closer to around INR 6,000 crores because we basically have to incur closer to almost INR 3,000 crores, both put together and 30% of that go from the equity and the balance would be raised through that.

[Unknown Analyst]

INR 6,000 crores would be a real one can probably assume by the end of next fiscal year.

Now, sir, if you want to break up because -- if you look, Mr. Mehta in his opening remarks, indicator regarding the sustainable growth driver and one of the sustainable growth drivers for our business was the demerger. So can you help me understand the total INR 6,000 crores or INR 4,000 crores of the debt, which is there in the book. How does it bifurcate between the various verticals that is going to get demerged?

[Deepak Rastogi, executive]

So obviously, we can fund the retail separately, but it is based on the projects which businesses. So let's say, for our mining and chemical business, the Bhopal port obviously plan that would actually -- we added there. As far as the nitric acid is concerned, obviously, it will come to the Industrial Chemicals business, which is under the PPA. But we can share that data separately. I do not have the data now.

[Operator]

The next question is from the line of Park Cotas from Fresh 91 Asset Management.

[Unknown Analyst]

Firstly, I'd like to congratulate you and teams are for a great set of numbers. Most of my questions, again, have been answered. One question that I have, sir, is the impact of facility downtime, Taloja sales downtime for IPA and nitric acid production. Can you share when this rapid utilization will return to normal and if repairs will have any impact on this quarter's EBITDA margins?

[Deepak Rastogi, executive]

So just to give you a sense that part of -- irrespective of whether it is a plant or an unplanned downtime. We are actually looking to operate our plants in a capacity of around 92% to 98%. That is the kind of capacity utilization we have in all the actual plans currently. Including ammonia, including nitric acid, including IDMs like that. And hence, wherever we will need to enhance the capacity we had to actually enhance the capacity, let's say, for our mining chemicals business. So we added -- there will be an EBIT downtime for those products.

We have been continuously doing preventive maintenance for all the plants. And we want to optimize it, but this year, you would find that most of the facilities would actually be at 92% to minus 95% capacity outline. Ammonia would be an exception. It can be even higher than 100%.

[Unknown Analyst]

Perfect, sir. Perfect. I think that sums up our view really well. Sir, lastly, on the impact of ammonia and segment reporting, you mentioned earlier that ammonia profits are embedded in the Chemicals business. Can we expect any changes to segment reporting post expansion to provide better visibility into ammonia performance? Or this is how we'd like to continue?

[Deepak Rastogi, executive]

So for now, we will want to continue like this, but we will look into this to see whether we need to change our segmental reporting. Even though on the yearly side, we provide the details for all the segments for our ammonia business in any case, we actually published separate results and hence, [indiscernible] results. So you will have most of the detail but as you have actually requested we look into this and see if it is appropriate for us to change the reporting.

[Operator]

The next question is from the line of Harsh Shah from Rita Holdings. Please go ahead.

[Unknown Analyst]

Great numbers. Congratulations. And operating cash flow of almost INR 1,100 crores was outstanding. Sir, first question is on the technical breed ammonium nitrate part of the business. So this quarter, if I see the realization has been almost flattish on a Q-o-Q basis. So just wanted to understand that have we not yet seen the benefits of higher ammonia prices flow through to our realization. That is one.

And the second is once we have our debottlenecking capacity operative, what kind of growth in terms of volume are we seeing? Because I remember last few quarters, we had seen a lot of imports coming from Russia. So any update on that situation in terms of import applies?

[Deepak Rastogi, executive]

So I will answer you in 2 parts. First of all, the monsoon season actually is a lean season for this business because of the water logging or cutting in the mine -- the mining activities actually are reduced. So in spite of that, the volumes have slightly -- have come up, but they are not nowhere actually too much down overall. That is number one.

The second point which you made for on the pricing side, generally, the ammonia prices do not decide other pan ammonia, the pan actually works. So there is a commodity, which is called [ Ganeles ] grade ammonium nitrate that actually determines how the pricing and the premiums would be actually set in the marketplace. So I can tell you that versus last year, obviously, the ammonia pricing globally has actually strengthened. And we have been obviously getting higher selling prices for our products versus the [indiscernible].

So the third question which you asked was that...

[Operator]

Harsh Shah [indiscernible] from your side.

[Deepak Rastogi, executive]

Can I continue?

[Operator]

Yes.

[Deepak Rastogi, executive]

So from purely from an imports perspective, generally around 15% to 20% of the demand of India is catered through imports. This year, obviously, there are ration imports, but almost 40%, 50% imports are also from other countries apart from Russia. And hence, we do not basically see much obviously challenge there, but that is going to continue overall.

[Unknown Analyst]

Okay. That is helpful. And another question was for the industrial chemical business. Since expanding our nitric acid capacity, will this mostly be used for our captive consumption or this will also be used for market sales?

[Deepak Rastogi, executive]

So for C&I, actually, it is predominantly for markets. So we have tied up almost close to 65% of our capacity of our [ CLA ] the balance, again, will actually go on spot sales and things like that. As far as the diluted which is [ DNA ] which is almost 50% to 60% actually is captured. The balance would be sold outside [indiscernible].

[Unknown Analyst]

And in terms of end-user industry, will we see any change in sales mix in terms of more sort of getting sold for value-added products? Or will the sales mix or the incomes remain the same that we have currently?

[Deepak Rastogi, executive]

Sure. So we have been actually improving our specialty-grade sales over a period of time. So obviously, the customers. So we have -- as you know, that we have added steel grade nitric acid for an example. We have added [ Persol ], which caters to mostly the hospitals or the pharmaceuticals and the disinfectant industry and things like that.

Now we have also -- in a process to launch for semiconductors, IP grade being those products. Now these are very industry-specific applications, which we will continue to develop. And hence, we will always have similar base of the customer, which we will cater, which we have been catering to, but we will continue to add with the specialty, we will continue to get new customers going forward.

[Unknown Analyst]

And just a last question, a follow-up. Would you be able to give any numbers, important in terms as to how much would be commodity grade sales to other companies. Second one, I think in how much would be value-added and where would this percentage stands say, 2, 3 years down the line?

[Deepak Rastogi, executive]

So we are currently at around 20%, 80-20. It is the normal grade 20% are specialty rates. And we are looking to at least double this number over a period of a couple of years.

[Operator]

The next question is from the line of Him from Manav.

[Unknown Analyst]

Congrats on the great side of numbers. So most of my questions have been answered. I just wanted to know, do we have any progress with our Mining Services division? And have you secured any orders for that?

[Deepak Rastogi, executive]

So we have already executed more than 15 projects or programs so far. And as we speak, multiple projects are under progress at this point in time. So that's a work in progress, and it is only going to increase and improve going forward.

[Unknown Analyst]

Okay. And what sort of margins do we look at when you take these services or these mining services contracts?

[Deepak Rastogi, executive]

So generally, what happens is that the product margin stays because we are selling the product and on. But for the services, there is an additional margin that is based on what are the projects or the program details? How much is the benefits which gets accrued to the customer? Based on which, we basically decide how much will be the premium we will charge or the [indiscernible]. So it is not obviously a single number, but if I were to give you a ballpark number, maybe 10% to 15% over another what we do. Obviously will become a normal benchmark going forward as [indiscernible] actually improved and increased [ PPA ] of programs going forward.

[Operator]

The next question is from the line of Kushal Shah, a individual investor. Please go ahead.

[Unknown Shareholder]

I have 2 questions. My first question is that we have seen many changes recently in the top management that is Mr. [ Amit Barge ] designed last year and now Mr. Deepak Rastogi going to event, and we have so much of CapEx plan and how do we plan to stabilize the top management? And Mr. [ Subah Sanan ] who will be joining in the position now part to be continue for so many years, like do the shareholders that kind of assurance.

And second question would be on the lines of mining chemicals. And it's particularly how deeper fertilizers would have an edge over the existing experienced minor and how difficult or easy it is to replicate the total cost of ownership model that we have built.

[Deepak Rastogi, executive]

Okay. So on the first question, obviously, the company has a very good pipeline in terms of succession planning. There will be management people or employees who actually join. Employees would join and we have some employees would actually leave. So that's a large process of an organization. And the organization is well equipped to handle either the new expansions of the dealer and things like that. So given that we have seen this over the past 4 years, all the IP and the knowledge actually rides in the processes and the company. So I don't think so that could be one of the concerns which we have. Obviously, as we speak, we continue to create more obviously experts and more people in the system so that we do not have a vacuum in terms of succession values, which is well, well actually matured and it is obviously discussed at the Board meeting. So that is number one.

On your question 2, I will hand it over to my colleague, Tarun, Mr. Tarun Sinha, who will answer that whether it is easy for any other company to replicate the TC model. So I will -- over to you, Tarun.

[Tarun Sinha, executive]

Let me reconfirm your question. What's your question on this?

[Unknown Analyst]

Yes, Tarun. So my question is, a, by the deeper fertilizers of chemical company would have an ad over the existing minus or several years of experience in mining or net of the infrastructure. And second part of the question has led us to some other player comes into the market, how difficult it is to replicate the total cost of ownership model for that?

[Tarun Sinha, executive]

Okay. Thank you for your questions. On the first part, we are not claiming any format share that our knowledge base is much larger than the existing miners. What we do is, as it happens in the normal course of business, then in any organization when there is a team of people working on the same thing over and over again, like it happens in a typical line. Then chances are high that areas of opportunities are overlooked, not because of any design, but it's just that it's a normal way of working.

So what we do in our total source ownership model is we send a team of people to the mines. Baselining, benchmarking of their overall costs, which encompasses doing lasting excavation, hauling and crushing wherever applicable, these operations and spot opportunity for improvement. And then we, as we spoke earlier in one of the questions, we try to enter into some projects and contracts to help the mining companies to improve that cost. So that's the business model.

On the second one, whether any other company is able to replicate this, I think I've answered this question in some of the other calls earlier in previous quarters. It is difficult. We don't know of any company which is working on this model. It is unique. And why it is unique is not just because of how we approach it, but it's also about how we contract these kind of projects, which is a combination of the inputs that we provide and at the same time, output that we generate. So it's a very much outcome-based approach, rather than an input-based as, which is where most of the companies operate in this space. That's where we draw the [ INR 3,300 crores ] difference in terms of our business model, such as the others.

[Unknown Analyst]

And one more question on how long will it take for TCO to mature and be such a significant contributor in the revenue?

[Tarun Sinha, executive]

So we started this concept a couple of years back. And like it happens with any new concept, it matures over a period of time. We have come a long way already in terms of not only just building the capabilities, but also, as was mentioned by the Deepak earlier in opening by executing 15 or 1-5, 15-odd projects in that direction. And these projects have been delivered in coal segment of the market in the metal and limestone segment of the market and also in the infrastructure segment of the market. So it's working quite nicely. It's maturing and we are in the growth trajectory. We anticipate that as we go along, this will start becoming a bigger pie in our chance.

[Operator]

The next question is from the line of Jay Jariwala, an Individual Investor. Please go ahead.

[Unknown Shareholder]

Congrats on set of numbers. So I have 2 questions. My first question is based on, like you mentioned in the PPT that we are going to launch a new IP-based on [ Santander ] base. So like on -- according to which quarter we can expect the revenue kicking in from this particular segment or it is in a very immediate stage. Like I want to just more progress on this.

[Deepak Rastogi, executive]

So we already have a product right now. Obviously, the scale is very, very small, given that the industry in India has to pick up. And this is like -- because manufacturing activities have just started for semiconductors in India. And hence we -- this business to grow by people till the time, whatever activities which are there for domestic sales as well as for exports, we continue to look at those opportunities and feel what could be the best way to actually improve, obviously, our revenue in that particular segment.

[Unknown Shareholder]

Okay, sir. And the second question is on technical ammonium nitrate. So like we are seeing a couple of other companies like coal India and the other joint venture for this particular ammonium nitrate. So they are -- they have specified a ammonium nitrate. So I just want to know whether this technical aluminum metal is different from an ammonium nitrate, like is -- both the products are seen and the capacity which are going to be live by Coal India somewhere FY '26?

[Deepak Rastogi, executive]

So obviously, what coal is trying to do is that they are doing much more from a gas implication, coal gasification and that's what they are trying to do. And they have been working with BHA to bring that kind of a technology. And in the previous quarters, I've actually mentioned that the technology as per them is not commercially viable. That's how they have actually reported in the financial quarter. So we have to see when they will actually bring it, but products are same technical ammonium nitrate is a product which is used for explosive purposes for the mine. And they are trying to basically obviously create some in-house capability, obviously, with this joint venture going forward, but we have to see how it actually pans out.

[Operator]

The next question is from the line of Chintan Shah from JM Financial Family Office.

[Unknown Shareholder]

So I have 2 questions. So first on the TAM segment. So if we see there are 2 to 3 players who are adding capacity here. And also, as you mentioned earlier, a significant contribution is from imports. So now this is slightly longer term, once we commission our addition capacity by end of FY '26. And I believe probably other players are also adding somewhere in the FY '26 to '27. And do we see a case that could put pressure on pricing and once we commission this capacity, we could see lower profitability. That is the first question.

And second, it's slightly near term. So right now, from FY '26 perspective, just wanted to understand since the operating at such high capacity utilization, what sort of growth levers do we have? Is it only a realization and profitability or is there a scope for value expansion as well? Those are my 2 questions.

[Deepak Rastogi, executive]

So I will take the second question first and then go to the next question. So we already have got capped in terms of the capacity. And that is one of the reasons why we've actually added [ 50 ] very, very recently, wherein we took a plant shutdown to increase the capacity because today, we do not have a debt capacities to actually service our own customers. That's number one. Coming back, and that is one of the reasons why we have actually gone for the expansion because if you really see the coal mining or mining activity, power activity or infrastructure activity are slated to grow between 10% to 12% fee a year over a period of next 5 to 6 years, if not more.

What that will do is that the current demand-supply situation. So the current demand of India is close to almost 1.5 million tonnes, a response in time or 1.6 million tonnes. With the pace of infrastructure growth and mining activity growth, it would actually go to around 2.2 million or 2.3 million tonnes per annum.

The current capacities which are there on the ground. It's closer to around 1 million or 1.1 million tonnes. And hence, when I was making a comment that around 15% to 20% of the capacity demand is actually set by imports, which is a case all the time.

So going forward, also the new capacities which are coming in by through [ Chambal or RCS ], the capacities will move from including our own the capacity will move from maybe 1.1 million or 1 million to around 1.6 million or 1.7 million tonnes. There would still be enough scope for the inputs to continue. So when we have actually and refiled our project at Bhopal port. We have assumed that a similar imports will continue given the kind of, obviously, the demand supply situation in India.

Now these are normal scenarios. Obviously, if the demand comes down because of some new form events or some because there is cyclicality. There could be a few years which are more softer than others. But on a long-term basis, we are very confident that the capacities which are there on the ground will continue to utilize to the brim and there will be -- there will be hardly any case for us to save that capacities are not there, right? In fact, the way that we have been planning is that from day 1, we are thinking because of the ramping and all the things would add between 60%, 70% of capacity uplift [indiscernible] is going to improve over a period of time. So that is how we are looking at this market.

[Unknown Shareholder]

Okay. Got it. Listen, that was very helpful. And just one last question. On our real estate, sir, is there any update or what's the plan here? I mean.

[Deepak Rastogi, executive]

So the plan is that obviously, the business, actually, we have parts of plan, there is a business which does not lead to be -- it's a new it's not materially from a value perspective, from a revenue or profit of things. And hence, we will continue to run that business. And whenever we need it, we will have an asset to -- liquid it on, we get obviously good timing and things like that appropriately. But currently, there is no need for us. There are no reasons for us take the action.

[Operator]

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question for today. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Deepak Rastogi for closing comments.

[Deepak Rastogi, executive]

So thank you all of you for taking the time to participate in Deepak Fertilisers and Petrochemicals Limited conference call. I again wish everyone on the call a very happy Diwali and give prosperous year to all of you. Thank you so much.

[Operator]

On behalf of PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited, that concludes the conference call. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.