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Bandhan Bank Ltd
Earnings Call Analysis
Q2-2024 Analysis
Bandhan Bank Ltd
Bandhan Bank has successfully completed a major upgrade to its core banking system, migrating to Oracle's FLEXCUBE. This foundational step in the bank's tech journey was accompanied by the launch of an enhanced Internet banking platform and an updated mobile banking app. This digital leap forward is designed to make the bank more agile, allowing for the launch of new products and services, more effective use of data and analytics, and an improved personalized customer experience.
India's economic conditions remain stable despite global uncertainties, with inflation contained around 5% and a GDP growth forecast of 6.5% for FY 24'. The Reserve Bank of India's consistent repo rate offers a supportive backdrop for the Indian BFSI sector's growth.
Bandhan Bank has reported a 12.3% year-on-year increase in overall advances and a notable 4.3% growth quarter-on-quarter. Secured loans, an area the bank aims to increase as a total share of its portfolio, have grown to 44% and are expected to hit 50% by FY 26'. Deposits grew 12.8% year-on-year, with retail term deposits rising by 20% and the CASA ratio improving to 38.5% from 36% in the previous quarter.
The bank has achieved an overall collection efficiency of 98%, excluding non-performing assets (NPAs), which reflects a year-on-year improvement. The post-COVID loan portfolio, in particular, is showing robust performance.
A 245% surge in net profit to INR 721 crores for Q2 FY 24' shows the bank's increasing profitability. The net interest income grew by 11.4% year-on-year, and the net interest margin slightly improved to 7.2%. Gross NPA rose marginally to 7.3%, with net NPA at 2.3%, but overall credit costs have remained stable at 2.5% for the quarter.
With an 80-branch addition this quarter, predominantly in the northern, southern, and western zones, the bank's network now reaches 35 of 36 states and union territories in India. Digital transactions now account for 95% of total banking operations, with digital banking platforms seeing a 57% increase in monthly active users. The bank's UPI transactions have surged by 63% year-on-year, showcasing strong digital growth.
Management pointed out three crucial observations: the business growth is robust, portfolio quality is improving, and deposit growth is aligning with the credit demand. Notably, the bank remains confident in its ability to meet the credit growth guidance of nearly 20% year-on-year. They expect the historically stronger second half of the financial year to sustain this momentum and have maintained a credit cost guidance of 2% with a possible variation of plus or minus 20 basis points.
The bank has recovered INR 246 crores from an asset reconstruction company (ARC) pool, with expectations of further recoveries to directly improve the bank's P&L going forward. About INR 93 crores of recovered amounts have already been reflected as a reversal of provisions in the recent quarter. This positive development points toward potential credit cost performance below the provided guidance.
Bandhan Bank is actively managing its non-performing assets, and with the decrease in the Days Past Due (DPD) pool, the bank anticipates a reduction in slippages in line with this trend. Management has chosen not to quantify this expectation but indicates an anticipation of favorable reflections in the slippage rates.
The bank predicts a potential rise in the cost of funds by 20 to 25 basis points over the next two quarters. However, this might be offset by higher yield, allowing interest margins to stay within the 7% to 7.5% range, maintaining stability in this key profitability indicator.
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Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Q2 FY '24 Earnings Conference Call for Bandhan Bank. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Vikash Mundra from Bandhan Bank. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you, [ Veeru ]. Good afternoon, everyone, and a warm welcome to all the participants. It's a pleasure to welcome you all to the Bandhan Bank business and financial performance for the quarter ending September '23. We will take this opportunity to update you on the recent developments in the history -- in the industry as well as on Bandhan Bank during the quarter.
To discuss all this in detail, we have with us our Founder and Managing Director, Mr. Chandra Shekhar Ghosh, Executive Director, Mr. Ratan Kumar Kesh, Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Sunil Samdani; Head Retail Banking; Mr. Shantanu Sengupta, myself, Vikash Mundra, Head of Investor Relations, along with other senior management team of the bank. We'll be happy to provide you with any clarity if required from the current quarter's number and the way forward.
Now I would like to request our Founder, MD and CEO, Mr. Chandra Shekhar Ghosh to brief you all about our bank's operational and financial performance along with the development for the quarter ending September 2023. Over to you sir.
Thank you, Vikash. [Foreign Language] A warm welcome to all of you. I am pleased to state that July to September '23 quarter has been an encouraging quarter for the bank. However, before talking about business number, I want to update you about one important milestone that the bank has achieved very recently.
The bank earlier this month has successfully completed the migration into a new core banking system. We had faced some hiccups during the first few days as one can expect in a mega transformation like this. But now we are fully functional. We are now live on Oracle's FLEXCUBE, a CBS platform used to buy some of the largest banks in India and globally. This migration is the first state in our tech transformation journey. Along with the CBS, we have also launched our all new Internet banking platforms and mBandhan, our mobile banking app, both with far improved UX and UI and stronger functionalities. The new CBS, along with the surround system will enable us to be far more agile, launch newer and more potent products and services, use data and analytics more effectively and drive personalized customer experience.
Coming to this, the business point of view. Despite the various global uncertainties, India's key macro parameters remained strong. Inflation has stopped in to 5% GDP in financial year '24 is projected to be around 6.5%. And the RBI has kept the repo rate unchanged for over 8 months. The favorable macro backdrop should continue to help the momentum in the Indian BFSI sector in the coming months.
During quarter 2, '24, Bandhan Bank's overall advances closed 12.3% year-on-year and 4.3% quarter-on-quarter. The quarter-on-quarter growth in the loan book reflects uptick in demand for all asset verticals. EEB vertical added about 600,000 new borrowers during quarter 2 financial year '24 as the EEB portfolio increased 5.2% quarter-on-quarter. The retail loan book grown 80% year-on-year and 15% quarter-on-quarter.
Growth in the case of retail assets and commercial banking continues to be impressive. If you see that the commercial banking vertical consisting of financial institution group, MMG and SME lab grown 65% year-on-year and nearly 7% quarter-on-quarter. The housing finance book has registered a growth of nearly 4% year-on-year.
In line with our medium-term strategic objectives, the share of secured asset as part of our total loan book continues to increase. It reached nearly 44% in quarter 2, '24. Up from 38% from 1 year before. We expect to have nearly 50% of our portfolio will be secured by financial year '26.
Coming to these the liabilities, which bank have had a very strong presence on that? On the liability side, total deposits at INR 112,000 crores at the end of September '23. It has been grown 12.8% year-on-year. It stands stronger than industry growth. As we focus on granular retail deposits, our total retail deposit and retail term deposit grew 13% and 20% year-on-year, respectively. The retail to total deposit ratio, which was at around 71% in the last March '23, moved up 74% by September '23. CASA deposit which stands at INR 43,196 crores at end of quarter 2 financial year '24 have shown an impressive growth of 10.5% quarter-on-quarter and about 6.6% year-on-year. CASA ratio stands at a healthy 38.5% compared to 36% in the previous quarter.
Microfinance customers continue to contribute just about 4% of our total deposit. Customers continue to repose their trust in the bank. The bank has added about 10 lakh customers in this quarter. Number of liability customers increased by 12.5% year-on-year. Volume of total customer transaction increased by 47% year-on-year. In terms of value, it increased by 13% year-on-year.
Coming to this, the asset qualities. Let us now move on to trend in collection and asset quality. There has been a good improvement in collection efficiency. The bank's overall collection efficiency, excluding NPA stood at 98% for the month of September '23 up from 97% in the September '22. Especially for EEB segment, our collection efficiency, excluding NPA stood at 98% for the month September '23, significantly up from about 95% a year ago. The post COVID portfolio consisting of all loans is first after June '22, clearly turning out to be a strong one. Gross NPA ratio of the post COVID book stands at 2.6%. There has been improvement across buckets for both forward and backward loss. Current to SMA GRUH flow was 1.5% in quarter 2, '24 against the 2.8% 1 year ago. On the other hand, SMA GRUH to current flows improved to nearly 25% in quarter 2, '24 from 13% a year back.
If we now like to see the profitability, the bank has registered a net profit of INR 721 crores during the quarter 2 financial year '24 against a net profit of INR 209 crores a year ago. This was a year-on-year growth of nearly 245% in the profit. Our net interest income, NII in quarter 2 financial year '24 was INR 2,443 crores compared to that of INR 2,193 crores in the quarter 2 financial year '23, registering a growth 11.4% year-on-year. Our net interest margin stood at 7.2% in quarter 2, '24, marginally better than 7% quarter 2, '23. With faster portfolio expansion in quarter 3 and quarter 4. NIM usually move up, just for the month of September, NIM was at 7.6%, reflecting festive demand. Gross NPA stood at 7.3% in quarter 2, '24 as compared to 6.8% in quarter 1, '24. Net NPA stood at 2.3% in quarter 2, '24 versus 2.2% in quarter 1, '24. However, total credit cost has been largely stable at 2.5% in quarter 2 financial year '24.
The bank delivered an ROA of 1.9% and ROE of 14% in the quarter 2 '24. In the branch and digital expansion. The bank continues with emphasis on its branch network. This quarter, we have added about 80 branches. Over 70% of which are in the Northern, Southern and Western zone.
Today, the bank has reached the brand's presence in 35 out of 36 states and union territory of the country. I also want to highlight how our performance in digital banking was improved. 95% of our total GB transactions are happening digitally. Monthly active users on our digital banking platform are up 57% year-on-year. Our digital transaction volume increased 47% year-on-year. Our UPI transaction increased 63% year-on-year. The bank has enabled the direct tax collection under Pay at the bank counter for customer as well as noncustomers. We have also been authorized by the RBI for disbursement of central civil pension very recently. All these will help us offer better service to our customers and also to reach new customers.
Overall, all these figures, I'd like to mention this in the 3 points. The growth of the business has come and showing this quarter is very good on that. EEB, we have been disbursed INR 4,000 crores more than the last year's same quarter. 4 lakhs new customer, we have added this quarter on EEB, we have given the loan to them. Portfolio last year, the second quarter, there our INR 600 crores are declined from the first quarter which is this year, second quarter, there are INR 2,000 crores increase from the first quarter. And altogether, we have been seeing that a very good new and existing customers' credit demand has been increased. So that we are very confident on that. Credit growth has come up. And whatever we are -- guided our credit growth of this financial year will be reached on that to nearly 20% year-on-year.
Second, my point on that, the quality of the portfolio, we see that the quality of the portfolio that DPD has come down. Total DPD estimate in EEB has come down 1.3% together industry. And NPA increased 1.1%. So that is also -- we have been seeing that the first rebuild recovery and the DPD going down have been -- given the confidence, we are returned back to the control of this portfolio and which is the better portfolio we are gradually like to show inflation.
My third point on that, that is in deposit within this circumstances. The bank has been also growing the deposit, credit growth. And which have been given the confidence to us on that, we'll be like to continue whatever the demand of the credit growth, the deposit also will be not the challenge. Even not in -- if you see that my CASA has been increased from the last quarter, 2.5% in this quarter within this situation. And my third point, all other parameters and ratio, it is all are aligned with the first quarter, more or less in the same on that all, it has been shown the confidence to the bank and the team that we are now coming to this better position and we are from here to grow in a better way to the future. So of course, whatever the credit -- credit cost, we are predict in this financial year, 2% plus 20 basis points or minus will be like to reach, and that all parameters have been shown as.
Finally, historically, the second half of the financial year is a significantly stronger period for most of our business verticals. As the festive season sets in, there has already been notable uptick in credit demand. Of late, we have successfully completed the migration into the new CBS and have initiated several steps to boost, cross-sell and the branch led sales to grow their retail assets and liabilities portfolio and also to increase productivity per employee supported by our digital and analytical initiatives. Overall, we are all on our way of achieved long-term strategic goal of portfolio and geographically diversification.
Before we end the session, I, on behalf of the whole bank family wish you and your family a very happy Durga Puja and Dussehra as well as Diwali. I wish you and your family all the best. Thank you, enjoy the festival.
Yes. Yes. We can start the question and answer session.
[Operator Instructions] The first question is from the line of Mahrukh Adajania from Nuvama.
Sir, my question is on the DPD of the -- DPD book of micro. Now if you see last quarter's SME book, then this quarter slippage is around 65% of that book, Total SME. Now we are left with an SMA of around INR 17 billion. If you assume the same run rate of slippage, then would you again have a slippage of around INR 10 billion, INR 11 billion even in the next quarter? Or will recoveries improve materially? How do you view it?
Mahrukh. See, H2 historically, if you see, has always been a better quarter or better half for us for any financial year, whether it's in terms of new business growth or also the collection point of view. So the fact that our DPD has come down materially quarter-on-quarter. We expect this to reflect in the slippages number also going forward. And also, as I mentioned earlier, the recoveries will continue to improve. That has been the trend for last many years, H2, the recoveries are always better. So on both counts, we expect one, the slippages to be lower and recoveries to be higher.
Got it. So any run rate of slippage for second half percentage terms or any such things that, if at all, it's possible to guide?
So we don't want to put a number. But for that very reason, we've added 2 more blocks into our presentation. This is on Page 7. Right? What we are saying is how our portfolio pre and post COVID in terms of asset quality looks like and also the vintage analysis. So from starting Q1 FY '23, the disbursement and the portfolio performance accordingly. So if you look at both these blocks, it gives us the confidence that the steady state credit cost guidance that we have been giving, this performance of last 1, 1.5 years disbursement is in line with that.
If I may add a little more to it. FY '21 onwards, the portfolio is 92%, the GMP is 2.6%. And if I go even to 18 months portfolio April '22 onwards, that is even better 2.3%. So directionally, a, the DPD bucket is getting lesser and lesser. Also, the overall GNPA is coming down for the new asset of portfolios. Therefore, we will continue to maintain that credit cost guidance of 2% plus minus 20 basis points.
Got it. But -- and that should be achieved in '25 or in '24 end itself.
'24 and '25.
[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Gaurav Kochar from Mirae Asset.
A couple of questions. Firstly, if I look at the DPD movement and then you have given the vintage analysis, in that slide. So while you have given the NPA on disbursement, can you also call out what would be the DPD? I mean I want to understand what would be the power book because generally, NPA would take 90 days. And even if I look at 4Q numbers, from there, we are already starting to see NPA in the second quarter itself. So just to give some context, do we have the DPD number, 0 plus or maybe 30-plus early delinquency from that disbursement?
No. If you see that in the Page #6, so we have given that the DPD number, 30 to 60 days, we have the DPD is 1.1%, 61 to 90 days, 1.3%. So that is there.
No, no, not that, sir. I'm talking about the -- like you have mentioned NPA, in the next slide, quarter-by-quarter. So let's say, you have given Q4 '23, the total disbursement was INR 21,000 crores, of that INR 120 crore return NPA and NPA as a percentage of disbursement is around 0.6. So rather than giving the NPA number, do you have a delinquency number, let's say, 30-plus? How much...
That is not in hand now. It is not in hand now.
Okay. That would have been a little more helpful because NPA would obviously take 90 days, but delinquency would give you an early indicator as to whether the situation is worsening -- because if I go by this, then clearly 1 year...
Only 1 point I mentioned in here, overall, if you see that the 2.6% has come down 1.8%,1.5% has come down to 1.1% This is a together to all, earlier portfolio, new portfolio to major portfolio or new. If you say that 92% are new portfolio, that means that the 1.1% is naturally the 92% of the portfolio on that.
Sure. But sir, all of this has come down by moving them into NPA, not by recovery. So I mean, at an aggregate level, the entire pool, if I add the 1 to 30, 31 to 60 and all of it, including NPA, the pool has only gone up by INR 300-odd crores. So it's not as if this pool is coming down because you're recovering money. It's more or less there is a DPD movement. Your 30 bucket is going to 60, 60 to 90, 90 moving to NPA.
Gaurav. If you add all of these, now let's add the DPD as well as NPA. The total increase for the quarter is INR 260 crores, which is well below our guided credit cost guidance. And...
That is right, but ideally, because this is at an elevated level, one is expecting this to come down, not to go...
So that we discussed in the previous question, right? That we expect the slippages to come down and the recovery is to go up further in the H2.
Okay. Sure. And secondly, on the PCR. Now you've given this contribution to NPA by vintage. If I look at the overall PCR, you are standing at around 70%, roughly 60%, 70% of your book is -- NPA book is -- 3/4 of your NPA book is MFI. And typically, in MFI, the recovery rates are much lower. So is there a case of increasing the PCR moving it to maybe closer to 80% where most of the banks are today even without micro finance? So I mean, is there a case of you -- because the recovery rates have clearly not been in line with expectation?
As far as our PCR on the EEB book growth, we are at 85%. Right? The other businesses, which the other second business, which is higher in terms of NPA in housing, where the coverage is about 35%, 36%. So to your point, the coverage on the unsecured book is already at an elevated level of 55%. And also, if you look at our Page 7, we have recovered -- this is on Page 8. During the quarter, we've recovered INR 246 crores from the ARC pool, which we have sold in the month of December '22 and March '23. And further, if you break that up. That December tranche, whatever was to be paid to the ARC and the investor, we have fulfilled their requirements, including the IRR. So now on, we are in a situation where every recovery from this pool will start flowing into the bank.
This is also an added recovery, which will start reflecting from Q2 onwards. As far as the March pool grows, which we sold to ARC, we expect to fulfill that requirement also by Q3. So the December 1, we've already met the ARC and the investor requirements. March 1, we expect it to be fulfilled by Q3. And in Q4, we will have both the tranche recovery reflecting into the bank's P&L. So there -- the recovery is as strong as almost INR 246 crores per quarter. We expect the overall credit cost, if I have to adjust a fixed credit costs to be in our guided range, much below the guided range.
Okay. Sir, just to understand, this INR 246 crores, how does this get accounted? Because in the December column, as you mentioned, you already have in that Q4 column, you already have NPA sale to ARC as INR 23 billion. Now this INR 246 crores is out of that ARC. How does this get accounted? Is it part of the INR 400 crore recovery we are seeing in this quarter? Or is this part of the P&L and netted from credit cost?
So two things. One, firstly, the entire INR 246 crores is not something which has grown to the bank. It is only in the month of September that we've been able to fulfill their requirements. So only 1 month effectively, 1 month collection has flown to the bank, right? So the full impact of that will be visible only in the third quarter. And that impact is about INR 93 crores, which is reflected as part of reversal of SR provisions. The SR book, which we have kept as a bank, we have provided 100%. Now that we have started recovering that book is coming down. And accordingly, the provision is getting released, which is reflecting as part of my other income.
Okay. So I think out of this INR 246 crores, INR 93 crores was reversed in this quarter P&L, the remaining will be reversed in the next quarter?
So renewal is paid back to ARC. And now their quota for December is fulfilled.
Okay. Okay. So this is out of this INR 23.2 billion which we sold in Q4, correct?
No. We're talking about Q3. The December Q3, INR 8,900-odd crores.
Okay. Because in the -- okay, sale to ARC May, I cannot see anything in 3Q in your slide 8.
It was a combination of pool which we had sold.
Okay, okay. Sure. Understood. So let's say, on a steady state, let's say, next quarter onwards assuming this is steady state, what could be the slippage run rate or credit cost. Anything you can guide because last few quarters, I mean last quarter also the slippage was ex of the ECLGS book the slippages were INR 8 billion. Now there is an ECLGS book but slippage is still INR 13 billion. Just wanted to make some sense out of the next 2 quarters? How should we look at it? Did I understand the second half is typically better. But as far the slippages are concerned, even in last year slippages were elevated in the second half, they were not lower. So, Just wanted your thoughts around that.
We don't want to put a number to it today, but if you look at the DPD pool. That pool itself has substantially come down quarter-on-quarter. So we expect the slippage is also according to reflect that change.
All right. I'll probably take it offline.
The next question is from the line of Jai Mundhra from ICICI Securities.
Firstly, sir, on margins, right? So in your opening remarks, you mentioned that margins for the month of September was 7.6% versus -- which is materially higher than what we have reported for the quarter. Is this a function of better yields, as you have mentioned, in terms of festive season? Or you are seeing the cost of deposits or cost of funding easing off?
No, to correct your number, it is 7.3% and not 7.6%.
September, only September. Only for the month of September.
Okay. So 7.3% versus 7.2% for the quarter, right? But anyway, so how are you looking at cost of funds incrementally? Should they remain firmer or do you think they have already or are sort of peaking?
We feel that the -- it will be 20 basis points or 25 basis going up on in next the 2 quarters.
Yes, but it will be compensated with higher yield. So it will remain in the range of 7% to 7.5% on the mean side.
Sure. And secondly, on your AUM growth, right? So I mean, YTD financial year, YTD, it is still a bit negative, right? That would mean a very steep ask for you to deliver the 20% Y-o-Y growth. Of course, there is a second half wherein you see better business momentum, but you are confident of the 20% AUM growth, right?
We saw that there is a -- normally, second quarter always has been taken the time to balance with the March figure. So if in the last 2 years, we have been saying that it will be taken in the third quarter also. So whatever the second quarter in this year, we have been seeing that the business growth, especially is coming from EEB INR 2,000 crores given the extra which has given very good indication on that. The third quarter will be likely to exceed the YTD. And the March, it will be come to this the nearly 20%.
Also in March, we had mentioned that there is a very short-term loan against term deposit of INR 2,500 crores, right, which is a very short term and which has to be adjusted for the growth. So if you adjust that INR 2,500 crores, we are back to March level.
Right Okay. Sure. And sir, on asset quality, if you can tell us the slippages from the EEB book and -- yes, so that will make slightly more comparable on the SMA pool. I mean, out of INR 1,320 crores of slippages, how much would be from EEB?
So the EEB is INR 1,000 crores, and that includes about INR 55 crores of Manipur.
Right. So sir, if I net that off, so at the beginning of the quarter, we had SMA 0 plus 1 plus 2 of EEB at around INR 3,200 crores, out of which INR 1,000 slipped, and the ending pool is INR 2,800 crores, right? So there is still a reasonable inflow into SMA pool, right? That maths is right. Right?
One minute. Yes. So the SMA-2 was about INR 700 crores. INR 720 crores. Right? Last time, which this time is INR 690. SMA-2 plus the Manipur pool typically takes you to the slippages number. So Manipur is not there next quarter because whatever has to flow as flown. So which means proportionately, we should see a reduction in the flow as well. And typically, H2 is even better.
Right. And sorry sir, and just to -- the last clarification, what was so special about Manipur, sorry, just to refresh?
Manipur is at all...
Manipur for the last 5 months is inactive, right? There is no movement happening there. There is a restriction there.
Next question is from the line of Himanshu Taluja from Aditya Birla Mutual Funds.
I just have a similar question what actually the large participants have asked. Sir, if I look at total last quarter, DPD pool together is INR 2,800 crores of that DPD pool -- together 1 to 30, 31 to 60 and 61 to 90 together. Now in this quarter, that has actually come down to INR 2,300 crores. If I took last quarter, INR 2,800 crores and INR 1,000 crores might be of the slippages. So your fresh flows from the standard book looks to be INR 500 crores to INR 600 crores, which gives me a sense on the total book between 3% to 4% of the incremental standard book is slowing in the par. So can you just give me a clear -- give me a sense why that the standard book is still that number looks to be elevated?
I didn't get your calculation, we'll have to rework that calculation.
Sir, If I -- just like your 1 to 30 is 13.3 billion, your 31 to 60 is INR 7.5 billion, and your 61 to 90 is INR 7.2 INR billion, of last quarter. Together is a sum of around INR 2,800 crores. Fair?
INR 2800 crores, correct.
Yes. And in this quarter, your DPD pool similar 1 to 90 together is INR 2,300 crores. Fair?
Fair.
So from INR 2,800 crores, if INR 1,000 crores would have been slipped as an NPA, it means still INR 1,800 crores plus some -- your current book is INR 2,300 crores. It means INR 500 crores would have been come as a fresh flows from the standard pool. And that still remains 3% to 4% of your book basically, which is flowing in the DPD movement. So just trying to get a sense? What is the -- why that fresh flows still remains high?
If you see that the INR 900 crores, the slippage has come to the NPA. Correct?
So, on a steady state basis, we still expect about 2.5% to be the flow. And then there would be a recovery from there. right? And which would bring us to the desired level of credit cost. And what we are talking here is the gross slippages.
Okay sir, I will take it offline.
No. How you calculate this 3%?
Yes. Sir, ideally, I'm just saying your last quarter, SMA was full around INR 2,800 crores...
And that's INR 2,300 now.
So I'm assuming the gross slippages of INR 1,000 crores from this has been come from the 1 to 90 day pool. So INR 1,000 crores got deducted, it means that last quarter pool would have been around INR 1,800 crores. And in this quarter, if you do that together, your reported number is around INR 2,300 crores. So I'm just trying to understand your fresh flows from the standard pool still comes from INR 500 crores. And if I do analyze this, if I do this as an annualized number, so it means 3% to 4% of the book is coming as an -- is slowing as an SMA. So just trying to get your sense?
No, [ INR 5,53,900 ] overall book your calculating...
I'm a little confused as to why 3% overall is not a good number. Because we say 98% should be the steady state collection efficiency one should expect, and collection efficiency, 98% means there could be 1% or 2% part being customer, which effectively means 3% credit cost or the gross flow into the portfolio. And then there will be recovery from that pool. So that's the guidance we are -- in which we are giving.
And in our case, 96% of full pay paying 3% or sell paying customers.
[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Saurabh Kumar from JPMorgan.
Sir, just 2 questions. One is your interest on advances has not gone up. So can you just also -- because I thought there would be some repricing, which would happen in the microfinance book. So what's happening there? And second is, again, back to this forward flow question. So if you look at your entire 0-plus including NPA, that's gone up by about close to INR 300 crores for the quarter. That's 2.3% of the opening book. Is that a fair way to understand it?
The answer to your first question, this growth for the quarter has been back-ended. Typically, you see that seasonality in our business. So July and first half of August, we will still be growing. And the book started stabilizing end of August and the growth came typically in the month of September. So the average for the quarter is lower than the first quarter, and that's precisely the reason why my interest income is lower this quarter vis-a-vis the previous quarter. But this benefit will flow into the coming quarters.
Okay. And for the interest expense also because of this -- that's mostly mix change or?
No. So interest expense, as we mentioned, in this quarter, we had taken an increase in saving bank rate, which kept transmitted almost immediately. The term deposit, if I have to reprice it basis, the current rate that we are offering our entire book, we expect the cost of funds to go up by about 20 basis points, 20 to 25 basis points. assuming current rate prevails.
Sir, my point is your interest expense is also like gone up only 1%. Your borrowings per deposits also like similar amount. So there is no like -- we would have expected higher cost of funds that doesn't seem to have come through.
No. So in fact, it's also the other way around because the benefit of the low-cost CASA came in only in the second half of the quarter.
Okay. Okay. And just on the forward flow question, sir?
I think we discussed that. We'll take that offline because we -- our point is very clear with the gross flow.
No. No. Point was as 300 as a percentage of opening book is 2.3%. Is that the way to understand it, the total gross flow?
Yes. I mean that's the right way to understand.
The next question is from Pranav Gupta from Aionios Alpha Investment Managers.
There seems to be no response from the line of Mr. Pranav Gupta. The next question is from the line of [indiscernible], please go ahead.
The next question is from the line of Prabal from AMBIT.
So this quarter as of agreement pickup in saving deposits -- but as a trend, savings deposit were volatile. So why is there a votality and was there a one-off in term deposits this quarter?
No. See, there has not been any element of volatility in our book. In fact, every quarter we had explained where there has been a movement from saving to term deposit. We've seen 2 quarters where the term deposit rate was materially higher than the saving banks rate. We saw the funds moving from saving to term deposits. As we've now increased the savings banks rate as well. We see a stability in the saving bank deposits. So with increasing customer base, that deposit is also growing because there is no material outflow there. And that's the reason why we see the savings banks score.
Okay. There was no one-off meaning some of the larger monthly power-hitting accretive driven profitability?
Nothing.
And the second question is, so we had earlier said that -- we are looking to reduce share of group loans growth microfinance roles in the overall book. But again this quarter, we saw a pretty sharp jump in new group reimbursement. So is there a change in strategy? Or this is just an opportunistic kind of investment since we are like targeting the loan growth of 20%?
No. No. We said the percentage-wise, the share of group loan will come down. So as our retail, commercial, other businesses start to -- is doing better in terms of growth. We are also increasing our EEB. The idea was never to degrow the EEB or a group loan book. The idea was that the other businesses will pick up faster so that our secured, unsecured balances make up. And which is the case, which is happening. We see the secured businesses are doing and having a faster growth.
So retail has grown 80% commercial 65%. We continue to maintain 20% overall growth with 17% on the EEB side.
Okay. And just last question on the expense side. So since we are looking to grow the commercial banking book and going to the higher ticket size in the [indiscernible] bank. Do you feel that the policy of employees, the kind of salaries that they are getting currently will also have to be raised? And so structurally, now we are going to see higher and deeper employee compared to what we have had in the past. In terms of introducing these new products and new businesses?
That has already been happening over the last couple of years, we've been investing in retail and commercial. That will continue. And as you progress, even on the retail side, we will need to hire good quality talents as well as on the commercial side. That's already happening. There is nothing new. It will continue to happen in that manner.
So meaning the OpEx to market or cost to income will continue to stay higher for us, at least for next 2 to 3 years as we stabilize all the...
Not really. Guided for 3.5% OpEx to assets. H2 is the period where the growth in the balance sheet happens. So with the growth in balance sheet, I think 3.5% OpEx to assets will be met.
And more importantly, the bulk of the cost on the IT transformation and new branches that we have added that has already been done. Incrementally the IT transformation significant costs will come down. New branch addition, as we said, will be 100 to 120 per year. So even that will also taper down.
The next question is from the line of Praful Kumar from Dymon Asia.
Very good evening to all of you. So first question is, is there any communication from the RBI on the Assam refund that we had to get?
Assam refund 1 tranche has already been paid. We received some INR 47-odd crores, and we refunded back certain amount of money where the customer had already paid back.
And that is for the lower ticket size of up to 25,000 tickets. It's not related to RBI though. It's on the directly Assam government.
Okay. But incrementally, any update when the next tranche will be...
Yes. And when they announce the higher ticket size, we expect to get a higher share of the overall [ kitty.]
All right. And sir, Second observation and comment from Mr. Ghosh would be to understand more on the senior level exits that we have seen in the bank for the last 1 year. So, broadly want to understand more from a culture point of view, anything that we are doing incrementally to ensure that stability at the top level is maintained?
Yes. We are maintaining in that top level.
[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Srijan Sinha from Future Generali India Life Insurance Company. Please go ahead.
Sir, I wanted to understand what is the status of the [ CG SME ] recovery that we were supposed to get earlier in Q1, then it got pushed into Q2. And we have still not got that? Where is it?
There was an audit done, considering there's a large amount, the initiated an audit, audit has been completed. There are certain queries that had been raised. We are answering those queries. That resulted into some bit of a delay in the whole process. But we are engaging with them as and when it comes, we'll keep you updated.
And that would hopefully happen in this quarter?
Because it's a government matter, we cannot put a date because that's a wrong to commit anything. But yes, we are pretty much engaging and answering the queries. And yes, it has slightly delayed the process so far. So we are hopeful that it should come out at some point.
Okay. And sir, my second question is on savings bank interest rate hike that you have done. I missed -- when was it implemented?
Sorry. What is the...
When was the saving bank interest rate hike implemented?
Yes. It was implemented last month. That's on a specific bucket.
In September month, you mean?
That's right.
From September.
Okay. And sir, my final question is on the asset quality. I mean, if I look at your collection efficiency, quarter-on-quarter, that has gone up by, let's say, about 100 bps, excluding NPS. The 98% has gone to 99%. Is the collection efficiency that 98%, 99% consistently over the last 6-odd months, what explains this forward flow into the NPA bucket?
See, we've been telling this that our full paying customer, one should look at collection efficiency, along with the full paying customers. That has been only 96%, which typically means at some point of time, 4% of the customers will slip into NPA. Since they are part paying. There will be recoveries also from those customers and ultimately, we'll recover some money from those. So that is where you see the 3.5%, 4% kind of a gross slippages number coming in because the full paying customer is 96%.
The next question is from the line of Prakhar from Elara Capital.
Three questions. First, in terms of [ CG SME ] recovery. I know you probably mentioned that you can't put a timeline to it, but this was always the government thing. So what made us change our stance in 1 quarter where we were so certain that it will get reflected in Q2. And now in this presentation, when I look at, we have not even put out a date that -- will still reflect in Q3 also. And what happened with ECLGS guarantee whereas we also last time said that it will happen in Q2 but that seems to also get delayed.
So the only change, Prakhar, is that in the first tranche for the INR 900 crores, there are no audit. In the second tranche, there is an audit happened. And given that audit has happened, and there are certain queries raised, so we are answering all of those queries. That according to us, it has delayed the process. Otherwise, we are quite hopeful to get it.
But that could change that audit outcome can also change -- the other outcome tranches amount?
No, amount is in higher. If you see that the INR 917 crores is the first tranche. Second tranche, we are INR 1,290-odd -- INR 1,290 crores. So when it has been exceeding the INR 1,000 crores. So there is some process there. It must be audit and then we would be like to process on that. So that is the one cause as per our knowledge.
And ECL, yes, as you know, it's a bit of an operational -- that upload issue, and it's happening on track. I think INR 85 crores is already done, INR 410-odd crores is still pending. And it will happen as per the process because there are no bulk upload facilities, it has to be run...
ECLGS last time we discussed, right? That it has to be uploaded one by one. There is no bulk upload facility, and there are capacity constraints at the [ CGT SME ]. So we have uploaded and received INR 85 crores in the quarter. The total amount to be received is about INR 500 crores, of which 85% is received, INR 410 crores is something which is pending.
Okay. Just on second will become liability side, you probably mentioned a bit about it, but on savings, when I look at the average SA balance for customers. There, when I look at the competent doing at an industry level and you are reporting 3,000 balance the customers rise in the quarter, how -- what explains this?
No. So as we mentioned, we've increased our savings banks rate. And so it gives customer the flexibility to use the savings bank account at maybe 1%, 1.5% lower than what they get in the bank deposit. And if the customer wants to opt for that, they trans -- they don't -- they keep money in the savings bank instead of moving it to the term deposits. And that has helped us increase the overall balance. If you see in September '22, it was INR 59,000 crores. It came down to 51% because the gap between savings and the time deposit rates increased during this period. As time deposit rates went up by almost 200 basis points in last 1 year and saving banks remain constant. The quarter-on-quarter growth has come up. So you're talking about -- what last quarter, we've grown from 51...
No sir. Every thought process that I had is that you raised rate in September. So probably our customer base is so sensitive to interest rate that we probably saw within the fortnight that our asset balance is moving from INR 51,000 to...
That has also helped and also the new customer base that we acquire. And if you offer 6.5%, 6.75% as an interest rate, so clearly, these customers, there is some bit of sensitivity towards the rate. Right? We are a bank since inception, we've been offering the differential interest rates.
Yes. I think just to add to what Sunil said, if you look at the individual customer segments, the overall balances have gone up. So that's something that we're seeing as a positive side. Prakhar.
Just one last bit in terms of your other income. So this collection fees for ARC that you had of around INR 37 crores this quarter. Given that for December tranche that you have already paid to and March you're expecting that it will be paid through in the next quarter. And when do we see this collection fees coming from ARC?
I think by Q3 we should stop receiving this collection. So Q3 would be -- and some part of that could flow in Q4. But after that, I don't think that selection fee would be applicable for us.
Got it. And INR 93 crores that we talked about is there in other -- of other fee income?
Yes, that's part of the other income. So other income also has a INR 44 crore mark-to-market hit on account of bond yields going up. And this INR 93 crores as well.
The next question is from the line of [ Farhan Engineer ] from CLSA.
Just 1 thing on the housing book growth has been slow for 3, 4 quarters now. So any comments on that would be helpful.
Yes. Thank you for the question. We are what we see in the housing book is that we are seeing a steady recovery. If you look at 2 or 3 things that we are seeing as green shoots, one, the fact that overall disbursals are going up. Two, we are seeing productivity of our businesses, especially across the country is going up. We did a change in platform, et cetera, and therefore, the impact that we had initially foreseen we have gone past that. So what we see right now is steady recovery. I personally foresee that over the next quarter, we see even stronger growth coming back because the underlying drivers of the business are looking reasonably strong now.
And just to put some numbers here, the run rate has moved from INR 200 crores per month to INR 250 crores per month already. And from here on as Shantanu said, Q3, Q4 we would get to -- we should see a significant growth uptick from here on.
Got it. Okay. And secondly, just in terms of your 3.5% expense ratio guided. Is that for FY '25, '24, if you could just remind us, please?
This is for FY '24.
Okay. And then in '25, we expect that to go down?
10 basis points. But we'll communicate that in Q4.
[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Param Subramanian from Nomura.
Just 1 question on the -- if you could remind us the accounting for the CGFMU recovery, INR 1,600 crores, how it will flow through to the P&L? Will it just reflect as recoveries and upgrade with minimal impact to the P&L. Is that understanding correct?
No. So the entry will be the same as and when it comes, what was for INR 916 crores, which means this money has to be passed into a separate account, as liability and that account can be treated as part of the provision cover, which effectively means your net NPA comes down.
Okay. And your PCR moves higher without any direct impact to the P&L, say, if it comes to in Q3, it will not reflect any direct impact in the P&L. Right?
Yes.
The next question is from the line of M.B. Mahesh from Kotak Securities.
Just 1 question. Are you able to do any form of analysis of the delinquent borrowers, if they are able to get access to any other form of credit with other MFIs?
Sorry, I couldn't understand the question very well.
Very difficult to check that? I mean historically can put it on the whenever the...
Finding out anyone from the credit bureau. -- automatically, they are credit score has come down -- so they are not eligible to get the funding from us because we have been introduced the credit score or listed the credit borrower.
Typically, also the MFI so they do not give any loan for anybody who has defaulted in the other financial company. So anybody who's into NPA with us will not be given a loan outside. And similarly, we do not do that. There's a board of conduct to be signed by [ as our body. ] So to answer your question, no.
Okay. Because the problem has been that the delinquency that we see in your book is completely at odds to what we are seeing outside -- so just trying to understand what experience a consistent divergence in performance that still exist today when everything suggested on the ground tools have improved. So where is the mix that we are consistently getting on being surprised on the asset quality numbers?
So we discussed this last time, right? As an organization, we have tightened our policy in terms of people eligible for the new loan, whereas at the industry level, we see more of a business as usual and loosening requirements vis-a-vis the COVID times. So that could be one. And in an unsecured loan, just to give you an example, today, our policy says if a customer becomes NPA and they repay the loan, we will wait for 90 days before we extend a new loan. And these 90 days, we will track their bill and see their track record outside Bandhan. So these kind of policies are not there outside. That could be one of the reasons. It's -- unless you have a detailed survey, very difficult to...
Plus, you would also look at DPD from 1 to 180 and then 180 plus as well. So if you go into those 2 breakups, you may not find too much of a difference. You may find a difference between maybe from a 1 to 180 number, 180 plus would be pretty much aligned with all the other companies.
Sorry, just to clarify, Sunil, on this point, when the borrower knows that the risk of not getting a [ risk ] disbursal is high for the next 90 days, and there is an availability of alternate channels of credits to have started to disburse loans -- why do you think the borrower is not utilizing the facility and gets no disbursement scenario for the next 90 days or probably much higher till the time he repays his dues?
Will feel that way and will act accordingly. But ultimately, I have to bring that credit culture back. So what is required to do that. There has to be some tough decisions to be taken to bring back that credit culture.
That was the last question. I would now like to hand the conference back to the management team for closing comments.
I want to thank all the participants in this investor call for posing us a question and listening to us and giving us an opportunity to answer the question. We look forward to interacting with you more as we progress. And some of the queries that you have posed -- we probably could not -- probably the specific numbers. We can take those offline. Vikash will be ready to sort of take your question and answer. And on behalf of our Founder and CEO, Mr. Chandra Shekhar Ghosh, and the entire management team, I have the pleasure to wish you all the best for Durga Puja and the festive season. Thank you.
Thank you to all of you.
Thank you very much. On behalf of Bandhan Bank, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us. Ladies and gentlemen,you may now disconnect your lines.