Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd
NSE:BALRAMCHIN
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Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd
Earnings Call Analysis
Q3-2024 Analysis
Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd
The company's expertise in the sugar industry was tested by unexpected policy changes and market conditions. Initially, government measures restricted the use of cane for ethanol production, resulting in more sugar output than planned and raising the necessity for greater working capital due to increased inventory. Compounded by the Uttar Pradesh government's hike in cane prices, the company had to adeptly shift its strategies to maintain profitability.
Despite challenges, the company announced satisfactory financial results, attributing success to higher sugar production and improved operational efficiencies. Their cooperation with local farmers has led to a strengthened partnership over the past seasons, expected to contribute a 10% increase in crushing and potentially higher sugar recovery rates.
For FY 2024, the company reported sales of INR 20 crores in ethanol, projecting to end the fiscal year within the range of INR 25 to INR 26 crores, including Extra Neutral Alcohol (ENA). Looking ahead to FY 2025, while it is challenging to forecast due to uncertain government policies, the company has the capacity to scale up to INR 33 to INR 34 crores in ethanol production if the government's restrictions on diversion are lifted.
Executive confidence in the longevity of the ethanol program is steadfast, underpinned by government support, evident in consistent policies and pricing strategies over the years. This sentiment suggests a single-year anomaly due to the election cycle, anticipating that sugar surplus will be allowed for ethanol production, or export if necessary. The company foresees potential incentivization and continued government allegiance to the ethanol program.
Market conditions have caused a dampening in sugar price enthusiasm, with current levels potentially representing a bottom line. The executive team is cautious in forecasting market behaviors, indicating that government actions post-election could shift the trajectory. Nonetheless, internal estimates and higher recovery expectations lend some optimism.
While reflecting on expansion opportunities, the executives acknowledge a current capacity to crush 10% more cane, thereby utilizing the existing ethanol production potential more fully. An ad-hoc decision appears wise, indicating readiness to scaling operations should market conditions prove favorable, especially given the industry's cyclical nature.
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Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Balrampur Chini Mills Limited Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. Please note that this conference is being recorded.
I now hand the conference over to Mr. Anoop Poojari from CDR India. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us on Balrampur Chini Mills Q3 and 9M FY '24 Results Conference Call. We have with us Mr. Vivek Saraogi, Chairman and Managing Director; and Mr. Pramod Patwari, Chief Financial Officer of the company. We would like to begin the call with brief opening remarks from the management, following which we'll have the forum open for a question-and-answer session.
Before we start, I would like to point out that some statements made in today's call may be forward-looking in nature and a disclaimer to this effect has been included in the results presentation shared with you earlier. I would now like to invite Mr. Saraogi to make his opening remarks.
Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us on our results con call. I trust you had the opportunity to go through the results presentation providing details of our operational and financial performance. I will initiate the call with an update on current developments in the sector, followed by our company's key highlights for the period under review.
As per the latest data from ESMA and the production estimates done by us, the gross number for production looks like about [ 332 to 333 ]. Government has allowed and approved a diversion of sugarcane and B-heavy molasses, the combination of which is a total figure of 17 lakh tonnes or 1.7%, therefore, leaving a net production of about [ 315 to 317 ] lakh tonnes or 31.7 million tonnes.
Factoring in an opening stock of 5.6 million tonnes, domestic consumption of 28.5 million tonne, net production of 315 to 317 or 31.5%, it is projected the closing inventory for the current year, that is first October 2024 would be around 8.7 to 8.8 million tonnes.
To address the anticipated increase in inventory, we believe it is necessary to divert more sugar towards ethanol production. We are hopeful and we are lightening with the government to review its policy, which is limiting the divestment to 1.7 million tonnes of ethanol blending. This could help in elevating the surplus. However, the temporary alteration made by the central government in ethanol production compelled companies to adjust their mid-season strategies, resulting in production of more sugar than it was initially anticipated in the start of the season.
Consequently, the shift in focus towards sugar production will reduce the availability of syrup and B-heavy molasses for ethanol production. As a result, sugar will be held for a longer period of time instead of repromptly converted into cash flow through sale of ethanol. This would have an additional cost as more working capital will be required and therefore, a higher interest product.
Amidst these challenges, UP government has raised SAP from INR 350 to INR 370, that's an increase of INR 20 per quintal. The increase in cane price this year adds to the pressure already fed by the lower diversion as done by the central government.
Shifting our focus to our business performance, we are pleased to announce healthy operational and financial performance supported by improved volumes, higher realizations across all segments. Enhancements in operational efficiency is driven by higher sugar production that further improved our overall results.
Our dedicated engagement in the farming community has yielded significant benefits by working closely with the farmers over the past 2 seasons. We have strengthened our decade old partnership resulting in improvement in both the quantity, and we are hoping for a higher recovery also.
Our efforts to enhance both the quality and quantity are proving successful, and we are hoping for a 10% increase in crushing and a higher recovery. It's a little too early to calculate or give the figure, but yes, we are hoping for the higher recovery definitely. And already to date, we are higher than last year.
To conclude over the years, the integrated operations have enabled us to maintain a robust balance sheet generated the cash flows, with [ healthy ] strength of our business model. We remain committed to harnessing the synergies between Sugar and Distillate segment, which have been the key drivers of our success.
And we, therefore, have the strength and the ability to navigate these key challenges. We plan to capitalize on future opportunities to create long-term value for our shareholders to prudent balance between capital allocation and reward to shareholders.
So Pramod, this will be the end my of my discussion. Now I'd like to hand over the floor to you.
Thank you, sir. Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. And as the presentation has already been shared with everyone, I would not like to repeat the financial highlights here once again, and we will straight away go to the question-and-answer session.
[Operator Instructions] The first question is from the line of Shailesh Kanani from Centrum Broking.
Congratulations, sir, for an impressive performance, both in terms of profit and also in terms of crushing for the initial part of the season. I would like to take this opportunity to congratulate Avantika mam as well for her new role and wish her all the best.
So first and foremost, I would like to get some guidance on ethanol volume numbers and jute, which jute we will be using for the full quarter and FY '25, if you can share some guidance on that?
Thank you, Shailesh. For the FY '24, 9 months, we have already achieved INR 20 crores sales, including the ENA and for the full financial year '24, the range is between INR 25 crores to INR 26 crores including ENA. FY '25 will be difficult at this point in time to make any guess because we are not sure what kind of policy government will have.
So even if I have to put any number -- even if this program is repeated, then definitely INR 26 crores, IR 27 crores minimum for next year. Otherwise, we have the ability to go up to INR 33 crores to INR 34 crores liter of ethanol [indiscernible].
So I'd like to just add a little on food thing perspective, as I see them. So what we face this year is a, I would say, a reaction towards election from both the governments, center and state. So initial estimates were lower of sugar production at the net level and at the gross level. There were people who were talking of 29 million production at the net level. So that, I believe, sort of stoke little too much of fear in the government mind. And therefore, this kind of limit of diversion was put in.
Having putting that, now I don't think anybody wants a price size or any sort of eventuality they don't want to be with. So therefore, the stock is piling up. Now this piled up stock would definitely be available for higher diversion next year. So in my personal view, again, it's a personal view, even next year production even if it decreases, let's say, 3 million tonnes, you would move from a gross level of 33.5%, which is the gross level this year to 30.5%, let us say, which is still going to be 1 million to 1.5 million over consumption.
So in your current stock at 85 lakh tonnes or 8.5%, you would have 3 million. And next year, you would have a surplus of 1.5 million. So I believe personally that the ethanol program will be in full 100% low on more juice B-heavy everything next year.
So that's -- and I've given you a rationale behind it, there is sugar available to be diverted. Again, if not diverted, if we create a complete negative effect in the government's mind, the whole program began with the rational of diverting surplus sugar, hence, ensuring market price and payment to farmers with no excess stock, better cash flow to the mills. It is an aberration of a year because of election to my mind. This stock, which will come in hand, we'll ensure that from next year onwards, in our view, there would be no more aberrations.
So next year, I think, we will go 100% full length, all in.
I hope I've been able to give you the data correct...
Yes, yes, yes, it's quite helpful, quite helpful. Just to reiterate, so in FY '25, the worst case situation or I would say the situation what we are currently in, we are expecting at least INR 25 crores to INR 26 crores on volumes, at least a flattish volumes. Now we have a capacity of higher volumes, but we will do at least that in current situation.
Yes, but you're not allowed to use it.
So we would be using other pitch stocks like grain, maize, tamil grains, that would give us this comfort of INR 25 crores, INR 26 crores?
So we have only one multi-feed distillary, that is in...
So that will be used throughout with these products, hopefully, but the others are not multifeed. They are plants for B-heavy juice. We are the one...
So this guidance based on the estimate on that assumption that government will relax the border fee for next season basically. Sir, it sounds logical and reasonable. Fine, sir. Sir, can I get some data fitting questions like how would be your diversion of sugarcane for the current quarter?
I don't do the -- Pramod, you will attempt to do it?
It's very difficult, quarter wise. You should see the season.
For this season, it's already disclosed in the presentation.
Nine months, yes, yes, it's been disclosed.
But still, I would like to give an attempt. So this year, we got an allocation of around INR 3 crores liter for use based, so maybe around 37 lakh to 38 lakh quintals of sugar will get diverted toward [indiscernible] and around INR 11.5 crores to INR 12 crores is B-heavy.
That's helpful. Sir, how are we looking at this season in terms of gross recovery. Last time -- last season, if I recall it was around 11.6%. So we are expecting at least 11.6%, right on the gross level?
Higher, higher. At the gross level, 11.62% was the figure last year, we're expecting higher recovery this year -- higher than 11.6%.
So just -- Avantika has just joined us. Some of you [indiscernible] effort made by us and variety next year, this year, just quick rundown on cane.
So good morning and good afternoon, everyone. I just want to update on the season already going by and whatever is left in this season. So up until now, mostly we have crushed ratoon cane, which has already resulted in a better recovery than last year at this moment in time. And also going forward, our plant in varietal mix is even better than the ratoon cane. So's this should result in a higher jump even than what we are at now.
So the recovery is being higher and the cane crush being higher, both of that will gross up just as we did last year. So again, in both ways, we will have a better result. Other than this, we have been able to tackle top borer, red rot, and any other small or big phenomena, whether it's El Niño, whether it's La Niña, whatever it is, we are ready for everything. And we've been able to tackle it and we are coming out on top. So I would say our varietal mix is probably one of the best in the country at this movement.
Yes, things are good. So I would say very positive for the season that's left and also for the coming season.
So basically, what has been achieved is through effort. We are not deep diving into even managing the soil deficiency, et cetera. So we're taking this now to the next level where we can build our reinforcement to the best of our ability against any climatic fluctuation.
And I want to add on the multiple reports of El Niño phenomena dampening and La Niña emerging will help industry at large as well.
Let's not [indiscernible] right now. So our variety -- if you see our variety, it would be probably definitely the best in UP with minimum infestation of 0238, which is, in some areas, they havoced with a red rot. So we will emerge -- post season, you would be able to see the comparison yourself. For all the companies of last year crushing last year recovery versus current year crushing current year recovery. We feel the delta for Balrampur should be the best.
The next question is from the line of Achal Lohade from JM Financial.
Just to explain the earlier comment, Avantika, you made with respect to cane development. Given the efforts gone into and the results that you're seeing, a, is there a substantial scope to increase the cane crushing in terms of availability of cane or let's say, over the next 3 to 5 years, could this go up by 30%, 40% in terms of the existing acreage as well as possibility of increasing the acreage.
So it's a little bit difficult for me to answer the exact term that you are asking, but I will attempt. So we do have hope to increase cane to maybe 10% more level at this crushing capacity that we have. If we need to increase crushing more, we would need to increase our capacity, which can happen, which would be a management decision, which will happen as [ in, of course. ] If you're asking me scope in UP, yes, there definitely scope in UP.
So actually if you assume, our internal estimates are 10% higher -- 10%, 11% higher than last year. And we were able to crush 11.4 crores quintals against 1,030. So another 7%, 8% would take us to -- just to put in our current capacity as a combination of sugar crushing capacity, juice B-heavy, we can handle up to 12.5 crores quintal of cane with our current capacity, and we hope to get that next time.
And sir, this assumes that we end the season by what, May or is that assuming to June?
No. Yes, April end, early May. So we'll be able to begin early, this 15. That is the best what I feel 15 [Foreign Language] We have now a very good combination, which can help us begin early next year. So if you are able to crush that variety when you begin the season, your recovery is not hampered. So it allows you to start early, the same asset is used for 15 days more, and that is a 10% jump on the production. So no enhancement of season required largely.
You crush during the peak period by beginning early. So farmer does not pay this incentive, recovery is not hampered.
Perfect. Sir, the second question I had with respect to the diversion, the 1.7 million tonne cap the government has posed, you said that the government -- the industry is representing to increase this. Now given where we are currently standing on 9th of February, how much scope like -- if the government decides, let's say, tomorrow in a positive way, how much more can be diverted according to your estimates?
So you want a very frank answer?
Yes, yes, sir.
I don't think government is allowing it. So let's understand, and let me be very frank as to what has happened and why and why I said what I said in the earlier call. Over 10 years, our Honorable Prime Minister has personally been monitoring the ethanol program, even in recent biofuel concern or something, he has again spoken about ethanol. So this is a blip, a blip is owing to a reason in their mind. I'm not seeing right now. This is a pinpoint inflicted on us based on inflation scare in government's mind owing to elections. I don't see that coming off in 2 months.
I don't think we're going to be allowed any diversion currently. Having said that, why I said what I said in the beginning is that the entire surplus will either be allowed to go to B-heavy or exported if needed. So the government began with a rational in 2015, '16. It has helped this and enhanced this program by giving correct prices of B, C juice, et cetera. Even this year, they're compensated by giving a higher [ sell ] price.
So that proves the program is a [ prima donna ] in their mind. The program is here [indiscernible] they loves the program, all the benefits of the program, including the environment, farmer are all in place. This is a 1-year blip. So that blip lasts, it gives you feedstock buildup so that you will continue permanently and I see a lot of incentivization as we go ahead.
Got it. Another question I had is, how are the current realization? How do you see it given the context of increased sugar inventory building up at the country level? How do you see the sugar prices playing out over the next few months given we are getting into off-season?
Yes. I would say one, enthusiasm for a higher price as was said before this limit of 1.7 million tonne diversion. So that enthusiasm definitely dampened. It's very difficult to project. Assume election happens and assume whoever comes in, the government comes in and says, okay, this cane price is outstanding. There [indiscernible]. So whole trajectory changes. So one can't predict the price. Having said that, the current levels look, Pramod, close to bottom to me.
What is the current realization?
I would say, let's say, for UP, 37.5%, 38% looks like a bottom to me. These [indiscernible] 38% kind of looks like holding.
Understood. One more question I had with respect to -- you mentioned in your opening remarks future opportunities. Would it be possible to get some more sense on this, where -- what we can prospectly look at or where are we in terms of the decision making?
So as we said earlier, the Board is deliberating and you will hear as and when the Board decides.
Understood. But is it possible to get some more idea in terms of the size, et cetera, or you won't comment...
No. Size of what?
In terms of the CapEx, in terms of the opportunity or...
If you understand ...
Could that be very large or could that be just...
SEBI company law, is it possible for me to comment my friend. It's both driven. Can I say anything right now?
Got it. No problem.
As per law, I can't say anything.
Understood. Sir, is it possible to get some sense given the cost -- the cane cost we know, the broader sense we have in terms of crushing and the recovery, what could be the closing inventory valuation? I don't want a precise large data per kg, but a ballpark, could it be similar to last year or could it be higher given the cane cost is higher given the realizations are higher?
Achal, though the cane cost has gone up, but we are going to get the benefit of better recoveries and higher volumes. So I think inventory should be valued around INR 34 by the end of March.
Understood.
Last it was INR 33.70.
Understood. Sir, similarly, if you could help us understand, given the increase in the working capital requirement because of higher sugar production, what kind of interest cost one should pencil in? Could there be a big delta to that actually?
I think we -- for the 9 months, it is around INR 59 crores to INR 60 crores. So it looks like INR 85 crores for the full year.
Against? He is asking for the increase...
Against INR 48 crores last year.
Almost double.
This INR 48 crores going to INR 85 crores.
INR 48 crores -- INR 50 crores going to INR 85 crores.
Got it. Just one more last question. Sorry, I'm going again back to the micro question, sir. If the monsoon was to be normal this year, I presume what you said would be possible. But if the monsoon gets impacted because of the El Niño factor, is there a substantial downside risk to the numbers what you gave for sugar season '25, sir?
Achal, if you remember, I've already taken a 3 million downtick next year. If you recall, I said the gross production this year 335. I am saying 305 for next year, UP is not going down a penny. UP might only go up. So I'm penciling in a 3 million drop only in Karnataka, Maharashtra. This is probably the highest drop, things will only improve from here. So this is clicking that there's going to be no great monsoon, I am factoring in probably the worst case scenario.
Got it. And just one last clarification, sir. In terms of -- you mentioned that we have only 1 multi-feed distillery in Maizapur. Obviously, given the volatility in the sugar production in the cycle, et cetera, how difficult is to convert the existing distilleries into multifeed and b, what time and cost, does it require to convert the distillery into multifeed?
So one distillery would require about INR 50-odd crores to convert. But I'm not in -- we are not in favor of doing that.
Okay. Understood. How much time does it take to add the balancing...
Six to 9 months. I don't think [indiscernible]
It takes 6 to 9 months.
Yes, yes, minimum because [indiscernible] system, it requires time. But we see the profile going full pelt ahead, full pelt. So if I may just remind everybody and take you back to COVID days, there were 100 queries, and I would get scared that crude went to 0, if I recall correctly. And people were thinking that the ethanol program where our price was fixed at whatever [indiscernible], don't recall them. With crude going to 0, what would be government's reaction? Would it pick up the ethanol? Would price get reduced? So all we said was the contract we signed on the beginning of the year for the full year, there's going to be 0 sort of truncation either in the price or in the quantity. There was scare floating.
Again, if you recall, there was -- everything got picked up at decent price with 100% volume pickup. So I get back from that memory and take you down to today. The program is extreme stone to our best of my abilities, all I can say. The program teams absolutely on the top of the minds of our Honorable Prime Minister. This one can say from this dialogue which one sees, and you see he lives up to his word. So I don't see any, any debate in that area. In my mind, cane has to be available.
The next question is from the line of Sanjay Manyal from DAM Capital.
I just have a few questions. One is on the domestic quota, which we have received in January and Feb, I believe it is still on the lower side. Given the fact that Maharashtra, Karnataka will be lower in production, is it expected that it would be higher from March to November? Or when do you think that UP millers should get a higher quota?
I think from March onwards, you get a much better quota. Your point is correct. For [indiscernible], what happens, [indiscernible] starts a little late, typically than Maharashtra or Karnataka [indiscernible]
Your assumption is absolutely correct. That's all I can say.
Okay. Okay. And just, sir, one more thing. I think a lot of millers in UP and probably in Maharashtra also would like to sort of diversify into the maize ethanol, what I understand. You think that economics are proper right now? Or is there any decent availability of maize in the surrounding area or any work which has been happening with the farmer in the surrounding areas?
So right now, it's not very, very lucrative. So obviously, if you have a maize distillery, one should look at working with their farmers in and around their area to get procurement both in terms of correct price and the correct time, correct starch, et cetera.
Okay, okay. Fine -- and you mentioned that you are still expecting further crushing numbers in the next season. And so any CapEx, which probably can come -- I know this is not probably a right time for a lot of millers will not be thinking about the ethanol CapEx. But you -- given the fact that it is a downtime, you would sort of venture into -- you would like to venture into the ethanol in next 1 year or 2 year?
So as we said, we already have scope to crush 10% more. So we -- let us get that cane. Our ethanol capacity already can crush more cane than we -- use more cane than we are crushing.
Our next question is from the line of Vikram Suryavanshi from PhillipCapital.
I think most questions are answered. But just to get the clarity on the grain side, Maizapur, I guess we have 320 KL on the distillery side, and are we servicing any ethanol from grain currently or any outlook on grain output from the distillery this year?
So maybe around INR 4 crores liter of grain-based ethanol we will be doing this year.
Okay. And is this kind of broken rice or maize?
Combination.
It will be a combination.
The next question is from the line of Rajesh Majumdar from B&K Securities.
So sir, most of my questions are answered, but I had a couple of questions on the power side, number one, you have mentioned about 3 units now selling at merchant power. Are any other units also there where the PPA is coming to a conclusion or more merchant park can be available? That was my first question.
We will get back to you.
Only 2 units are out...
Only 2 units are selling.
Only 2 units.
But there is a sequence, we will get back. So let me tell you this currently as per policy, you can only sell [indiscernible] out of PPA once the PPA term expires.
Right.
So it's been a good exercise. We did it for the first time. Probably, I think we were the first in UP to do it, this merchant power. It's proving to be a cash positive exercise.
Okay. Okay. And my second question was, sir, in this kind of a flip-flop situation for the government as a business manager, how do you decide what to do with the cane? Do you make it in the sugar and put in inventory? Are you store molasses in the hope that April policy will be reversed? How do you really go about this thing? Because you have to crush the cane, a lot of cane is coming with [indiscernible], et cetera. So either you have to make sugar out of it or store it molasses? What is the kind of decision you take in these turbulent times?
There is no such suspense as you put it. Government has allowed you certain diversions. So that much you can make B-heavy or use, the rest you crush, make sugar as per C-heavy.
So you will make sugar. Okay. That was my question only, sir.
There is no management decision. There is no option.
But if in the sugar year, the policy again changes somewhere in the middle then what do you do?
I didn't get your question.
I'm saying during this course of the sugar year, maybe in April or so, if the policy again changes, then what do you do?
If your factory shuts down, what can you do. So that's too late, once your factory shuts, you have no option. So I'm just telling you there is no management decision, nothing. It's as per government directed.
Our next question is from the line of Nitin Awasthi from InCred Research.
Sir. All my questions were regarding the ethanol supply that we have done, and we are proposing that we'll do based on the Slide 22 of your presentation. So if I'm reading that correctly, we had a plan of supplying 19 crores liter roughly in the -- under the first tender, but now we'll end up supplying around 10 crores liters. Is that correct? 9 crores liters, sorry. So we are foregoing 10 crores liters.
So for this year, I think we have given the data in the presentation. For 19 crores, contract is already in hand, and we are going to report further quantity in the time to come in the next [indiscernible]
Correct. So this 19 crores is -- but this 19 crores includes the syrup and B-heavy that is no more allowed, right?
19 crores includes juice-based ethanol, B-heavy as well as green-based ethanol.
Hence, I took out the figures, which you have provided and then we come down from 19 crores to roughly 9 crores and -- so is that -- would that be the correct figure?
19 crores to 9 crores, I'm not getting you.
Even I'm not understanding.
So you have said you have already supplied 4.29 crore liters. Out of the 19 crores liters that you have -- so what we call, got the initial tender for. Now out of that, you only have the syrup and damaged food grains that you can further supply. Am I correct? Or am I doing something wrong?
No, no, you are correct.
So if I add the balance 1.4 crores of C-heavy and 3.23 crores damaged food grains, so that will come to close to 9 crore liters. Hence, I arrived at the figure of 9 crore liters.
So out of 11.5 crores of B-heavy, we supplied only 2.5 crores. Out of 3 crores of juice, we supplied only 1.85 crores, right? See, maybe we haven't supplied anything, green-based C-heavy supplied...
So that we will keep bidding and giving then these to finish.
Understood. Understood. But okay. No worries, got it. Sir, the next thing I just want to understand the second tender, which is out, that is only for the second quarter of the current ethanol season, correct?
Yes.
Okay. So the third quarter, this is now [indiscernible] the tender will be out soon, probably?
Right.
So just to fill you up or sort of handle in the ambiguity at anyone's end, government is open and keen and anxious to buy as much seed or grain, which you give them.
Note it.
So tenders for these 2 is open. I mean today also without a tender, if you want to go and give them C. So suppose you had 100 liters of B and juice, which you had bid for earlier, and your government is restricted to 250, okay? They are saying that 50 you can convert to C today. You don't need a tender for it also.
Got it. Got it.
Just to let you know how keen and anxious they are to get ethanol without sacrificing sugar.
Understood, sir.
The next question is from the line of [indiscernible] from Sanjay Agarwal Broking.
My question is given the evolving ethanol [indiscernible] program, how do you foresee it's impacting the distillery division sale and profitability in the upcoming years?
I think we have given all the numbers in the call earlier, what kind of volume we are looking at for the FY '24. And we have also given our detailed rationale, what kind of assumption we can take for next year.
Okay. My second question is based on market analysis. The company is aiming to triple the distillery division revenue share, right? So do you anticipate...
As per market analysis, the company is aiming to triple the distillery division share, I mean, should [indiscernible] your last year revenue share in distillery division is around 11% to increase to 35%. So do you anticipate the [indiscernible] program to have any significant impact on the upcoming distillery capacity increase?
So that was last year when there was no restriction by the Government of India on their limited diversion of the ethanol. So at that point in time, we expected that our overall revenue from distillery would be around 1/3 of our total relative. So we have never given any guidance that we would be increasing our distillery capacity for the [indiscernible].
Okay. So this new policy, the EBT program policy, is it impacting on this particular sector?
Isn't it obvious.
Okay. So how -- how do you expect about the demand scenario of the current and upcoming years on that distillery division?
Demand is unlimited as far as ethanol is concerned, it is only a temporary rationalization, which the government has done this year.
I hope you understand that.
Okay. I understand, sir.
Our next question is from the line of [indiscernible] Family Office.
Congratulations on a good set of number. [indiscernible]
No, you're not audible. I can't hear you. We can't hear you.
Okay. Congratulations on a good set of numbers.
I had 2 questions. Firstly, can you give us a breakup of the -- out of the current 9-month ethanol production, which has been done, how much has been done through the various routes? And second is the more of a strategic question, seeing that the government is still very keen on achieving a 20% ethanol blending target, probably in the next coming -- next few years, is there any kind of internal projection of how much [indiscernible] due to our revenues and profitability kind of a study, which has been done at Balrampur in light of that?
So for first question, you may please refer to Page 20 and 21 of our presentation.
And we have said what we have to say on our thinking of how the government is doing -- government can think of as far as ethanol is concerned in the coming year.
Just -- I understand that. Just wanted to know that is there any kind of projection which you are working with? Or is there no current projection which you are working with?
So our ability -- our ability to produce is around 33 crores to 35 crores liter annually. It includes ENA. There is no restriction, we should be in a position to achieve that.
Our next question is from the line of Krutika Vispute from Tata PMS.
Just putting together what you have mentioned earlier...
I request you to use your handset, please?
Just putting together what you mentioned just few minutes back saying that there has been restrictions on B-heavy and juice route, but one can anyway sell higher than the tendered amount in terms of B-heavy ethanol, right? Going by that, now also seeing that in light of us expecting a higher crush this year and better recoveries as well. So why would we instead of going for more sugar go for higher loss fee? Because even if you look at the profitability after the increase that you got recently on the C-heavy side, would it still not make sense to go higher than the 19 crores liters? Or is it 24 crores liter -- that you have 25 crores liter that you are expecting [indiscernible] that you can do from the pacing capacity. Why are you not choosing to do that instead from C-heavy?
I'll attempt to just clarify the concept. So in sugarcane when you are making sugar at the max that you can, that is the only time you are left with C-heavy, right? So we don't have the option of increasing C-heavy out of the blue. It's -- once the total cane crushes...
It's either B, C or juice. The C and juice -- B and juice, you've been restricted by the government. The balance, they see. So there is no interplay available if you -- that's what you're asking.
Maybe a different way I can ask how much is the maximum of C-heavy that we can get from our [indiscernible] divert everything in C-heavy. What is the maximum volume of ethanol that we can make?
So we are producing maximum of C what we can do under the circumstances.
Okay. And for the full year, on the [indiscernible] as close to 1200, how much can be used on C-heavy in absolute terms for the whole season?
We didn't want to -- we do not want to do any more C-heavy than we are allowed. It's already a burden to keep that sugar.
Okay, sir, understood. Yes, yes. Got the point.
Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question for today. I now hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.
Thank you very much for joining us. And I hope we've been able to give you both a macro and a micro picture for any further queries, Pramod is available, we are all available. Thank you.
Thank you, everyone.
Thank you. On behalf of Balrampur Chini Mills, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.