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Aarti Industries Ltd
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Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to Aarti Industries Limited Q4 FY '24 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]
Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Nishid Solanki from CDR India. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us on Aarti Industries Q4 FY '24 Earnings Conference Call. Today, we are joined by senior members of the management team including Mr. Rajendra Gogri, Chairman and Managing Director; Mr. Rashesh Gogri, Vice Chairman and Managing Director; and Mr. Chetan Gandhi, Chief Financial Officer. We will commence the call with opening thoughts from Mr. Rajendra Gogri, post which we shall open the forum for Q&A where the management will be addressing queries of the participants.
Just to share our standard disclaimer. Certain statements that may be made in today's conference call may be forward-looking in nature and the disclaimer to this effect has been included in the results presentation that has been shared earlier and also uploaded on stock exchange websites.
I would now like to invite Mr. Rajendra Gogri to share his perspectives. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to our Q4 and FY '24 earning call. I'll take you through our performance insights on industry dynamics and strategic initiatives.
Firstly, let me summarize our annual number for FY '24. Revenue came in at INR 7,012 crores, while EBITDA stood at INR 984 crores. Profit after tax was at INR 416 crores. Board has recommended a dividend of INR 1 per share. That is 20% for FY '24. We delivered resilient performance during the year despite severe global pressure emanating from sluggish demand trends globally leading to slower export trajectory and inventory adjustments.
These challenges were further accompanied by geopolitical crisis impacting the global supply chain and logistics. Against this backdrop, we have demonstrated a stable performance anchored by our nuance understanding of market dynamics, combined with cost leadership and differentiated product portfolio.
While the overall global macroeconomic environment remains subdued, we witnessed demand recovery and discretionary application catering to dyes, pigments, specialty polymers and additives, among others. Macro concerns related to nondiscretionary segment serving certain end user industries still persists.
Let me now share the key performance highlights for the quarter under review. Our consolidated revenue increased by 3.5% to INR 1,955 crores in Q4 FY '24 over previous quarter Q3 FY '24. EBITDA, including other income grew by 5.6% on Q-o-Q basis to INR 283 crores in Q4 FY '24.
EBITDA growth reflected an optimized cost structure driven by higher volume resulting in improved operating efficiency and favorable product mix.
As a result of this performance, we concluded the year with annual EBITDA of about INR 984 crores, consistent with the guidance provided in our previous quarters. Profit after tax stood at INR 132 crores in Q4 FY '24, higher by 6.5% over previous quarter of Q3 FY '24.
PAT performance was in line with operational trajectory and benefited from favorable tax position, buildup in international cost -- interest cost and depreciation aligned with the launch of new capacity schedule during this year. Performance on Q-o-Q basis was steered by volume growth, planned ramp-up of long-term contracts and recovery in discretionary portfolio.
Our domestic export mix stood at 52% to 48%. I'll turn your attention to production highlights for Q4 FY '24. The production of nitrochlorobenzene stood at 17,646 metric tonnes as compared to 18,842 metric tonnes recorded in the same quarter last year and 19,580 metric tonnes in Q3 FY '24.
Meanwhile, nitrotoluene saw a production of 6,675 metric tonnes against 6,130 metric tonnes last year and 6,951 metric tonnes in Q3 FY '24.
Additionally, hydrogenation output stood at INR 3,389 tonnes per month in the current period compared to 3,315 tonnes per month in the corresponding period last year and 3,644 tonnes per month in Q3 FY '24.
I would like to now share some updates on our growth initiatives. We entered a CapEx of over INR 1,280 crores in FY '24 on project expansion and plan to spend another INR 1,500 crores to INR 1,800 crores in FY '25. All our growth endeavors are advancing as schedule, and we foresee the gradual commissioning of several projects within the coming years. This includes acid phase 2 capacity expansion, specialty chemical blocks [ installation ] and NT capacities and asset upgradation among others.
Our chlorotoluene project is also advancing well with the initial phase projected to commence by FY '26. Upon completion, this project will cement our distinctive position in global chemical value chain and enhance our performance trajectory. With commissioning of several ongoing projects and anticipated volume ramp-ups in existing products, we continue to maintain our expected EBITDA guidance of INR 1,450 crores to INR 1,700 crores for FY '25.
This outlook is supported by sustained recovery in discretionary segments, emerging indication of revival in the nondiscretionary portfolio and the operating leverage benefit is expected to accrue with the increase in volume in FY '25.
To conclude, Aarti Industries not only projects tough competencies and global reach, but also both an established R&D framework. As an integrated player and partner of choice, the company's strategic positioning enables it to proactively navigate the dynamic landscape within the industry.
We aim to leverage this extensive expertise, maintain [indiscernible] focus on our values of care integrity and excellence and fortify our position to enhance values for all our stakeholders.
With that, I will now request the moderator to commence the Q&A session. Thank you.
[Operator Instructions] The first question is from the line of Mr. Nishid Solanki.
We take our first question from the line of Mr. Vivek Rajamani from Morgan Stanley.
Sir, 2 questions from my side. Firstly, if you could just give a little bit more color in terms of why the volume numbers were lower on a Q-on-Q basis? Which segments were, I mean, relatively weaker compared to the last quarter or -- and what kind of trends you've been seeing in the quarter so far?
And the second question was with respect to your EBITDA guidance, which you've obviously maintained, but just wanted to get your sense in terms of the trends that you're seeing and in terms of the conversations that you're having with the customers, how confident are you of achieving something closer to the high end? Or do you think you would rather have to wait to see how the recovery shapes up before some of these things start to get a bit more clearer?
Yes. This agrochemical segment is under pressure. So volumes in that segment are getting impacted. Whereas on the discretionary side, dyes, pigments and other segments, where we are seeing good traction as far as demand is concerned. For FY '25 guidance, there will be a lot of factors which will determine whether we will be on the higher end or lower end.
It will remain on how the volume grows up, this demand goes up as well as our commissioning of our projects and the stabilization of those facilities. So as of now, I think we are not able to narrow down the guidance. And as we move forward, I think we'll be able to do so in coming quarters as far as the next year's guidance is concerned.
Sure, sir. Just one quick clarification. The fact that agrochemicals is under pressure is well reflected in the lower nitrotoluene volumes. If I could just clarify the lower NCB volumes is also purely accumulated? Or is there something else as well over here?
Yes. So nitric acid pressure was also there during this quarter, so that has also partially impacted volumes. And some of the NCB product also goes in agro and pharma. So that impact was also there.
The next question is from the line of Rohit Nagraj from Centrum Broking.
Good to see the sequential recovery. So first question is again on the discretionary and nondiscretionary segments, which in all geographies are seeing positive traction and which in all geographies are still reeling under pressure, if you could just tell us from the exports perspective?
Yes. Actually we make this intermediate going into a different geography and then the finished molecules are then made in -- whether it's mainly in U.S. and Europe as well as agrochemicals are concerned, and then there is export across the globe from that. So it'd be difficult to know -- what will be the impact on geographical factor as far as agrochemicals are concerned. But overall, on an annualized basis, we had about 11% North America, 6% Europe and 4% in China, 3% Japan and rest of the world, 28%. So that was a kind of a composition -- geographical composition, which was given in our presentation also.
Sure, sure. Sir, second question is in terms of the CapEx. So this year, we had a slightly lower CapEx of INR 1,300 crores. We had expected INR 2,500 crores to INR 3,000 crores of CapEx for 2 years. Now we have raised it to INR 1,600 crores to INR 1,800 crores for FY '25. After that, the similar run rate will continue? And in FY '25, which in all will be the major projects which are what added to this CapEx?
Yes. This is our existing product line, which we see as zone 1, 2 and 3. All those projects, we expect to get fully commissioned in FY '25, where is acid phase 2 then ethylation expansion at Dahej site and nitrotoluene expansion at Jhagadia and some other specialty chemical debottlenecking some expansion will get commissioned during the FY '25. And other major spending will be in our new site at Jhagadia, where multipurpose plant and entire chlorotoluene and downstream product plants are being put up.
Sure. And FY '26 similar run rate would be continued?
FY '26, no, we have not yet fully finalized the numbers. I think that will be maybe in the next couple of quarters, where we'll be able to give a more clear guidance on the CapEx for FY '26.
Our next question is from the line of Abhijit Akella from Kotak Securities.
In this quarter, we have seen a significant increase in gross margins on a quarter-on-quarter basis sequentially, I'm saying. But at the same time, there is a significant increase in the other expenses also December quarter versus March quarter. So could you please just help us understand what might be driving that? Is it basically the freight cost increases that are being passed on?
Yes, yes. So you're right, Abhijit. The increase in the other expenses is majorly or primarily on account of the freight cost increase, which is passed on to the customer. But in addition to that, the product mix and a bit of margin improvement across the existing businesses has also helped in terms of improving the gross margin.
Okay. So this is a good run rate to -- for operating expense or other expenses to trend off of for the year ahead?
So other expenses, I mean, if you look at the fixed overhead, the fixed overhead virtually would not increase substantially, barring some 5%, 7% of inflation increase, it will be virtually constant or similar. The other expenses also include a component of variable costs such as freight and production charges -- production costs such as effluent treatment or labor also. So that would be linked with volume. But excluding those variable components, which are linked with volume, the fixed overhead will virtually be similar.
Fine. Understood. And just on the volume front, one was just to understand the quarter-on-quarter revenue increase this quarter, has it come primarily from the long-term contract we've just signed because the production volumes are actually down across all categories? So that was one thing. And then if you could please just also share the PDA volumes for the quarter.
Yes. No, the volumes were -- our regular volumes as well as long-term contract volumes were also there. And as far as the PDA volumes...
PDA was at 523 tonnes per month.
The next question is from the line of Rohan Gupta from Nuvama.
Sir, couple of questions. Sir, first is on the Q-on-Q sequential growth. Though it is encouraging to see the Q-on-Q growth, but what we have indicated earlier that there is a recovery across the segment and end user industry maybe only except agrochemical. However, it is still kind of muted in terms of volume growth also on Q-on-Q and even on -- revenue is also quite like Q3 number. So just wanted to understand that the sequential recovery which you were talking about and the indicated EBITDA target which we have earlier indicated, I mean, are we on track for that? Because it doesn't seem like the Q4 recovery for our company is so strong to achieve those numbers for FY '25.
I mentioned agrochemical has remained softer. So that has given the impact of -- on the volumes as well as some nitric acid issue also had impacted the volumes in Q4. But now that is getting stabilized. And as you know, more volume grew in discretionary segment and also stabilization of -- on agrochemical side, we'll see that continuous quarter-on-quarter volume increase in FY '25.
Sir, you mentioned that agrochemical still remains challenging and that's what you also mentioned in the recent interview, will we see that in first half, agrochemical still remains challenging. So despite that, you are confident about the volume growth overall for the company and also if you can [ retain ] your guidance what we are looking for FY '25?
Yes. Agrochemical first half will be challenging. But I think in the second half, I think we should see a good recovery in agrochemical. And also some of our expansion also will kick in, in Q2 and Q3 of this year. So that will also help us in increasing the volumes.
Sir, in terms of CapEx number, you mentioned FY '25, you're looking some INR 1,700 crores, INR 1,800 crores CapEx. Am I right on that?
Yes, it was INR 1,500 crores to INR 1,800 crores.
Okay. Sir, if you can just -- I mean, can give further breakup in terms of the overall CapEx INR 1,500 crores to INR 1,800 crore? And also can you give some guidance for FY '26 CapEx number will be -- will it be similar towards FY '25? And overall INR 3,000 crores to INR 3,500 crores which we are planning to invest in the next 2 years, the likely investment of in which segment we will be looking at, if you can share those numbers?
Yes. This year, a substantial portion will be going in our new site expansion and other Zone 1, 2, 3 expansion will be more on completion of that. So I think more than 50% will be going in our new site.
And as far as FY '26 is concerned, the numbers have not been fine-tuned, but it will be upward of INR 1,000 crores for sure, but then exact number, we'll have to still fine tune.
Sir, new site that, if I remember, that is mainly for chlorotoluene, right? Or you have also identified some of the products to be manufactured on the new site also from the existing portfolio?
There will be a multipurpose plant also will be put up there. So there will be some of this multipurpose plant may be linked to some of the existing value chain or chlorotoluene or some stand-alone product also. So we'll first time have multipurpose plant also on the ground at that location.
Okay. So it's not like that the entire 50% expansion on new site will be only for the chlorotoluene, some part of that will be existing product basket as well, including MPP?
Yes. The MPP will have product coming from various channels, products coming from existing lines or the chlorotoluene or the new stand-alone.
Sir, is it possible for you to give a breakup in terms of end user industry for FY '24, which has just completed, I mean, segmental like how much from agrochemical and pharma or maybe polymers, if you can give a broad breakup?
This agro and pharma were around 35%. And this discretionary around 65%, and 35%, 65% kind of a number was there between discretionary and nondiscretionary.
And with discretionary, where we still continue to see the strong growth while agro only can see the recovery in second half.
Yes, yes.
The next question is from the line of Ankur Periwal from Axis Capital.
First question on working capital side. If you can highlight while on receivables, we have seen an absolute reduction but inventory and overall working capital in terms of number of days remains slightly higher. So your thoughts there in terms of outlook?
So on the working capital on inventory, there were couple of products which were to be shipped out in March, and it just got shipped out in April. So some matter related to that. Otherwise, it should be higher. Secondly, when you're looking at the day comparisons, I would request you to look at the numbers vis-a-vis the quarterly revenues and not the annual revenues because the average pricing for the second half was a bit more than what was there in the first half on the input and a couple of other input cost components.
Sure. Sure, sir. Secondly, on the CapEx side, while we did mention INR 1,500 crores to INR 1,800 crores and if I hear you right in the opening remarks, you did mention some bit of this CapEx will be for revamp of the existing project, so just any broad thoughts in terms of what could be the potential revenue that we are looking at here? And how much of this CapEx will be going into replenishment?
No, CapEx basically is our -- the second ethylation block and nitrotoluene, which is an ongoing CapEx and acid phase 2 and some specialty chemical block. So there are ongoing expansion for our current product range. So no, that is where the major volume increase will happen in this year. And also, further volume increase will happen in FY '26 also from this existing product line at our current locations.
Sure. Or sir, let me rephrase my question. Whatever CapEx we are doing, INR 1,500 crores to INR 1,800 crores FY '25, all of this will be productive CapEx either in terms of revenue or in terms of backward integration benefit?
Yes, virtually, I think, except some normal maintenance CapEx, but this is not a significant.
Sure. And sir, lastly, on the nitric acid part, you did -- alluded to a shortfall of the supplies there and hence slightly slower volume growth. If I remember it right, we had signed up a longer-term contract there, right, for nitric acid supplies. So if you can just share your comments why the disruption in supply and how do you see that playing out?
Actually, our supplier is putting up a larger facility, and that will come up in FY '26. So currently, we are getting material from other existing sites. And we have contracts. So accordingly, we could get a good volume. But still, overall, there was some disruption, which had a partial impact.
Okay. So FY '25 will further see disruption or possible disruption because of this supply issue? Or how do you put this at that?
Yes, the suppliers -- our major expansion is going to come in FY '26. So FY '25 -- but some other nitric acid capacities may come up in India, that's what also is expected. So that kind of can mitigate some sort of any disruption happening.
Sure. So '26 onwards, it should be fairly straightforward in terms of supply?
Yes.
The next question is from the line of Archit Joshi from B&K Securities.
I have a couple. So first one, just the way we have kind of given a guidance for FY '25, the lower end and the higher end of the EBITDA guidance span, would you be able to venture a number with respect to the peak EBITDA that we can achieve from the existing assets that you have, excluding the upcoming CapExes in chlorotoluene and the multipurpose plant? Could there be a range that you can guide?
Yes. I think another additional 10% to 15% should be possible. So more towards INR 2,000 crores kind of a number should be possible from existing -- ongoing existing location expansion.
Sure, sir. Sir, my second one was with respect to the NT and ethylation plant. I think both of them are going to be key contributors to both the contracts that we have recently gotten into. Would you be able to share the highlights of what we did with those 2 contracts in FY '24 if you can substantiate that also with the commissioning of these 2 facilities in FY '25 for which the CapEx is ongoing, would the entire volume can be assumed to be diverted towards these 2 new projects that we have signed? So I was just trying to understand how the volumes will shape up with the new facility commissioning.
Yes. This second contract, which was announced out of the 2, which was INR 1,500 crores for the next 4 years, so that is not connected to ethylation and those product lines. The first one, which was an agrochemical intermediate that is coming from that nitrotoluene and ethylation line. So there, we expect increase in sales from that in this year partly and the next year onwards, it will get -- give a full year impact. As the first one, INR 1,500 crores, I think, is an ongoing, so that already the ramp-up has taken place.
Sure, sir. Just the one, wherein, I was trying to understand how much from these 2 contracts, I mean the first contract size was close to INR 1,500 crores, your second contract and the first one was close to INR 330 crores. How much would have we done in FY '24?
FY '24, I think it was below [ INR 100 crores ] as some agrochemical impact had taken place. And -- but this year, we expect more around [ INR 250 crores ] or so.
And sir, the second one, the INR 1,500 crores one?
So that is running on a regular basis.
The next question is from the line of [ Rishi Kothari ] from [ Pi Square ] Investments.
So my question was more or less, it is already addressed. [ Technical Difficulty]
Sorry to interrupt, Mr. [ Kothari ], your voice is sounding muffled, may we request to use the handset mode, please?
Yes. Am I audible now?
Yes.
Sure. My -- anyways the question was more or less addressed on that segment front. But I just wanted to get an idea as to what exactly other industries that we are looking to diversify in places further in terms of chemical? Are there any some attractions in terms of [ other ] industry that you're looking at to diversify our product?
Other than the chemical industry?
No, in chemicals industry itself in terms of segment, let's say, we are into agrochemicals and dye in the segment and all that, so in terms of segment bifurcations.
So basically, we are very well diversified on agro, pharma and dyes, pigments, energy sector and all. In addition to that, we are looking at the sunrise sectors, which are more also going in this battery storages and all that or circularity of chemicals or biochemistry and all that. So that is another sector which we are looking at it. But as of now, we have not started investing in any of them, yes, but they are on our radar and also at various developmental stages. So we'll be going into those product line also in the coming years.
The next question is from the line of Surya Patra from PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd.
Sir, my first question is on this [ MEA ] and the nitrotoluene capacity, which is likely to be commissioning this year. So could you say what is the exact time line that you're anticipating? And any progress on that in terms of the contract with any customer for those product that you have already signed or anything on that front, if you can give some clarity about it?
No. That will be looking at Q2 of FY '25, the commissioning for both nitrotoluene and the downstream. And some of the volumes are tied up with those products.
So that means the utilization and the demand visibility about those facilities are that is there. And if it is, it is coming from which segment if you can share, sir?
It's mainly in agrochemical segment. This ethylation blocks are mainly going into agro.
Okay. Okay. And so these are also of the kind of a more downstream product where the margin visibility would be more than 25%?
Yes. If you take it from base molecule, yes, it will be of those kinds.
Okay. Okay. My second question was about the margin trend for the value-added product, what you have been indicating, sir? So like 25% to 30% kind of margin for the downstream product that you have been talking. So given the -- from the initial time period when you have started talking about it, from that particular point, we have seen significant changes in the cycle. The prices, let's say, have moved down significantly and now started recovering and all that.
So the up-cycle, down-cycle both we have played out from that initial point. But still, you are maintaining your margin expectation in the similar rate. So what is -- where from that confidence coming? Is it because of the spread generally, what you enjoy on those products? So that is why you are confident about maintaining the margins of beyond '25 for the downstream product or it is something else that you are getting confidence from?
No, we have a basket of products. So some of the products, there may be pressure. So on an average, this value-added product will give you a 25%, 30% range as EBITDA margin in that.
Okay. Sir, just an extended one to this only. This R&D initiatives, what you have taken, let's say, the -- with a deeper focus on the product development and research and development. So you have set up your Navi Mumbai plant, Navi Mumbai R&D center in FY '21. And I think now already 2 to 3 years is already passed? So what is the kind of progress on that front? And what achievement that you have seen from those initiatives? And what is the now R&D spend per annum if you can give some clarity and some future visibility out of those initiatives, that would be really helpful?
Yes, this entire chlorotoluene range that is all in-house because we'll be adding a lot of new chemistry in that photochemistry, nitrilation, hydrolysis and some grignard chemistry. So a lot of different chemistries, the products will be coming up in this entire chlorotoluene range and also in a multipurpose plant. So all those products R&D has been done in-house from this new R&D center.
In addition to that also, I mentioned on this sunrise sector, there also we are in touch with the global major companies as well as startups for developing newer product back-end manufacturing and development for them also. So those R&D also is happening.
Okay. So this is the point that I wanted to understand. So basically, like the collaborative research aspects with the customer -- potential customer for the new product opportunities. So generally, when we are talking about multipurpose plants, UMPPs customer manufacturing opportunities and the value-added products in the specialty chemical, all that, see generally, these projects are backed by ready contracts with the innovator or something like that.
So here, as you are saying that you have already started working on those fronts. So any progress in terms of alliances that you have already seen, but possibly when the commercial opportunity will be fructifying then you'll be announcing. So anything on this front, sir?
Yes. Various products are at different levels. Some at R&D, somewhere near where we have supply pilot quantities and all that. So different projects are at different stages. And we see good opportunities on those going forward. So those product lines, it will be not China plus One. It is India First because this newer product line, the customers might prefer India as a source, as a priority. So we see a good opportunity on tying up with those kind of businesses.
Sure, sir. Just last one question from my side, sir. In fact, if we see the FY '24 performance, in the domestic market, obviously, we have seen an 11% decline, while supported by the supply contract, exports are positive. But in terms of the volume, so I think if the prices, we know that large part of the domestic sales would be, may not be towards the downstream product, it could be the initial value chain-based product. Still, we are seeing revenue declining by 11% only, while prices have corrected significantly. So that means whether we have seen a volume growth in the domestic market for FY '24?
No, actually, the price also depends on the raw materials. If you see the second half, the raw material prices of [ toluene ] and benzene and all were higher. So that also kind of reduced impact on the -- when we talk about the sales number. So some of that increase is because of the raw material price increase also.
Okay. But whether any concern that is there about the domestic market in terms of volume progression or decline, sir?
No, ultimately, even sector-wise, it is basically a global impact because as we have mentioned earlier also, a lot of our products which are going in domestic ultimately end up being exported. So it is a global market on a back end, which is giving the impact. So domestic consumption for it will be only around 25%, rest will be direct or indirect export.
Okay. Okay. So domestic may not have that relevancy then.
The next question is from the line of Sabyasachi Mukerji from Bajaj Finserv Asset Management Company.
Sir, my first question is this morning on TV interview you mentioned about 20% to 30% volume growth for FY '25 versus, I believe, in the last call, Q3 earnings call, you mentioned somewhere around 20% volume growth. So question A is, what gives you confidence on, let's say, up in the range from 20% to 30%?
And second question is from which quarter do we see this growth coming? Because Q4, we saw weak tepid volumes, so Q1 is, again, I think, will be on the similar lines? Or do we see volume uptick from Q1 onwards only?
Yes. Actually, our earlier guidance was 20% to 25% in the last con-call, so that we have increased to 20% to 30% as a range. And the volume growth will happen from this Q1 FY '25 itself, we expect the volume to grow. And quarter-on-quarter now, we expect volume to grow this year.
Okay. And Q2 onwards, and when the new projects get commissioned, the volume growth will be far superior than what we are witnessing now. Is that a right assumption?
Yes, yes. From Q2 onwards, this may project also. So second half volume growth will be substantially more.
Okay. Okay. That's good to hear. Chetan bhai, I have a question for you. You mentioned and there was a mention in the presentation as well that the increased freight cost during quarter 4 due to Red Sea disruption had caused some effect. So if I look at Q3 to Q4, the other expenses have gone up by 19%, almost INR 268 crores to INR 319 crores. And whereas we had a 7% decline on sequential volume decline, could you quantify what was the impact, the freight cost this quarter?
So the freight cost increase gets substantially passed on to the customer. The volume decline is only for those few select products, for certain products, for example, like nitrotoluene also -- PDA, we do have volume increase. So we've got a very large product basket and there has been volume increase across some of the other products as well.
No, but still, I mean, what kind of freight cost was -- I mean, increased freight cost that we ended up paying, I mean INR 50 crores is a large number, right? I mean, from Q3 to Q4, if I just look at the absolute delta in other expenses.
Yes. So that freight cost increase is something which we have to bear and we pass it on to the customer.
So Sorry, you are saying something.
Yes. So on a value basis, the component is relatively smaller. If I look at comparing it to a turnover and it gets passed on to the customer as a part of the -- like similar to other input costs, this also gets passed on to the customer.
Okay. And you also mentioned there is some -- if I look at the other expense bucket, the fixed overheads generally quarter-on-quarter basis should remain largely similar. And on a year-on-year basis, it will follow some inflationary growth. So out of this total, let's say, INR 260 crores to INR 300 crores of quarterly other expense, what would be the fixed overheads? What portion would be fixed and what portion is variable broadly?
So the variable component would be somewhere in the range of around 40%, 45% kind of stuff. [ I don't see ] I have those numbers, but yes, beyond that, 40% to 50% could be variable. So it's not just the freight, there will be a lot of other component which is linked to production, which could be there like effluent treatment and other things.
[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Nitin Agarwal from DAM Capital.
Two questions. One is, a, on the newer projects which are there that we're talking about launching F '26 onwards. So these are largely oriented for the import substitution or are these going to be primarily export products?
Yes, it will both import substitution as well as export. So more towards a 50-50 kind of a thing.
Okay. And sir, with respect to whatever has been happening in China in terms of increased capacity, especially on the agrochem side of intermediates and AIs, I mean, does any of these calculations change for you or any of the business case has changed for any of these products, especially from export perspective?
Not significantly, no.
Okay. And sir, lastly, although you touched upon it, for the INR 1,450 crores, INR 1,700 crores EBITDA guidance that you gave for next year, this should be what a back-ended guidance in a sense, we'll see much, much stronger H2 and H1? And what would the split be like 40-60, 30-70? How should we look at that?
Yes, I think it will be more 40%, 45% and 55%, 60%.
The next question is from the line of Aditya Khetan from SMIFS Institutional Equities.
Sir, first question is on to the agrochemical demand outlook. As you have mentioned that for this quarter also, the -- so the demand has been lower only. And sir, we are standing into like May and June of this calendar year, so you are expecting like demand will remain muted for this calendar year complete or like improvement is expected from -- also from next quarter?
Yes. Basically, it will be -- generally, this will be always product specifics. So somewhere the demand will pick up in this quarter, next quarter and all. And some of them which are annual kind of a thing where the demand pickup will be more happening in calendar year '25. So it will a bit more product specific, but by end of the year, things would get normal. So calendar year '25 should be near normal for all the products.
Okay. Sir, on to the nitric acid supply disruption issue, sir, is it possible to quantify how much volumes has been impacted because of this nitric acid issue?
Absolute will be difficult. But the nitrochlorobenzene and all, we have seen some decline and all, So that is where some impact was seen.
Okay. Sir, my last question is on to the dicamba intermediate. Sir, is it possible to give out the revenue figure for FY '24? And what is the utilization level this operated on?
So say that demand for that agro is struggling. So the hydrogenation part is where we can utilize, but the last part, which is more of a dedicated plant, there has not been a very significant volume for this quarter.
The next question is from the line of Siddharth Gadekar from Equirus.
Sir, first on the MMA contract, which we had announced in Jan, the INR 6,000 crore contract. Can you just quantify how much revenues have been booked in FY '24? And how much incremental revenue we are expecting in FY '25?
It has started from the calendar quarter. So the entire FY '24 will be difficult to get the number in that sense. But first quarter, the impact has started coming in.
So incrementally, how much revenue should we expect from this contract on a Y-o-Y basis?
Y-o-Y, this is 50% to 60% at least.
Okay. And sir, from the second contract, what was the contribution in [ FY '24 ]?
Below INR 100 crores because the subsequent impact of the demand came up.
And in FY '25, do we expect it to go to INR 300 crores or it will be below INR 300 crores?
I think it will be more towards around INR 250 crores for FY '25.
Okay. Sir, got it. And then lastly for Chetan bhai. So what should be the tax rate that we should work with for FY '25 and '26?
Our tax rate for FY '25, '26, I believe it should be around 15%, maybe around 12% to 15% or 12% to 16%...
The next question is from the line of Rohit Sinha from Sunidhi Securities.
As we are seeing price realizations are down significantly. So once we see any significant improvement there. So how we will be seeing the price negotiation with our customers basically, how are the contracts aligned, including our long-term as well as the short-term contracts?
Certainly, in all the long-term contract we have structured pricing in place, whereas contracts which are more of a quarterly -- orders which are more on a quarterly basis, there the prices may have some inherent movement also, up and downside. But on long-term contract -- are more generally on a raw material-plus basis.
Okay. And on all these short-term contracts, basically, when they are due for negotiations? I mean...
They're quarterly basis. Generally, short term will be quarterly basis and long term will be multiyear. Some contract may happen on an annual basis also, but they are very limited relatively.
Okay. And secondly, just a clarification on this Deepak Fertilizers contract. So I think that was close to INR 8,000 crores contract for a span of 20 years when it was announced. So which I guess we're assuming that it will be equally distributed to this 20 years or maybe you can say, INR 400 crores kind of annual revenue. Since you are mentioning that there is some disruption and only after FY '26, we will see smooth volume there. So does that mean that there could be more than, say, INR 400-plus crores kind of annual revenue only by -- post FY '26 or it would be a max kind of revenue and only you that INR 400 crore or INR 450 crores, it can be fluctuated as per our demand also?
Yes, obviously, it will be fluctuating with demand. The supply side, there is major expansion, is expected [Technical Difficulty].
Sorry to interrupt, the line for the management has been dropped. Please stay connected while we reconnect the management back.
Ladies and gentleman, we have the management line reconnected.
Yes. The nitric acid also once their capacity comes up and it will also help us in whenever our ramp-up takes place. So it will be kind of a ramp up also in the turnover for that side also.
The next question is from the line of [ Simran Bhatia ] from Global Securities.
Sir, I just want to understand what will be your debt profile? I mean what will be the debt reduction going forward in the upcoming years? And second, how you see the EBITDA margin trend, not for FY '25, but for next couple of years, like '26, '27 or next -- till '26, '27? Will we see the margins coming back to 20%-plus in the upcoming years?
So on the debt, as you're aware, there has been significant CapEx projects which are underway. So debt reduction from the overall basis, I don't think so will be there. We are trying to optimize the working capital. I guess that is also visible over the last couple of years' performance where the working capital days have been reducing, plus debt as a number is also a function as to how the working capital and the cost related to working capital such as the input and other cost prevail.
So on an absolute basis, I'm not expecting debt numbers to reduce, but there will be efforts in terms of optimizing the working capital days, which could potentially provide some optimization of debt, but the debt will still continue to be -- it will be a bit higher than what it is currently right now.
Okay. Okay. And sir, when we are seeing the margins coming back to 20% or 22%-plus, FY '25 which is not possibly [ seen ] but any guidance for the upcoming 2 or 3 years down the line?
As we had mentioned earlier that Chlorotoluene range these are more value-added products, so structurally, there the EBITDA margin is higher. So with those products coming in line on a weighted average basis, combined EBITDA also as a percentage will increase from FY '26-'27 onwards.
The next question is from the line of Abhijit Akella from Kotak Securities.
Sir, just on the clarification on the MMA long-term contract. So if I recall correctly, last quarter, you had indicated we expected about INR 900 crores for FY '24 from that contract ramping up to 1,500 in FY '25. So just to check whether that they were still the number we should work with or has there been any deviation on that?
I think that's what kind of number matched also. We say 50% to 60% increase.
I think that's what is mentioned here.
Okay. This is only under the contract, is it? Or we are doing some sales of the product outside of the contract also, which is not included within this INR 900 crores?
Yes. We sell to the other customers also in that sense. So there will be volume increases for other customers also.
Next question is from the line of Rohit Nagraj from Centrum Broking.
Just one question. What would be the cost of debt currently and next year is it expected to be in the similar lines?
The cost of debt should be around 8%-or-so -- 7.5%, 8%. It depends on the combination of different products. From next year perspective, I believe the interest rates have largely peaked out while I'm not expecting interest rate to sharpen down or reduce significantly, sharply in this year. I believe, the cost of debt should fairly remain similar.
Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question for today. I would now like to hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.
Thank you, everyone, for taking out the time to join us on our Q4 FY '24 earnings conference call. Hope we have addressed all your queries. If you have any further questions, please feel free to contact our Investor Relations team, and we will address them. We look forward to connecting with all of you again in the next quarter. Thank you, once again.
Thank you. On behalf of Aarti Industries Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.