Zillow Group Inc
NASDAQ:ZG
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Zillow Group Inc
Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one
ZG
stock under the Base Case scenario is
45.52
USD.
Compared to the current market price of 80.79 USD,
Zillow Group Inc
is
Overvalued by 44%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
Zillow Group Inc
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Fundamental Analysis
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Zillow Group Inc. is an innovative powerhouse in the online real estate marketplace, connecting buyers, sellers, and renters with vital housing information through its user-friendly platform. Founded in 2006, the company revolutionized how people search for homes by providing comprehensive listings, advanced search tools, and valuable market insights. In recent years, Zillow has expanded its reach beyond just a listing service; it ventured into the real estate buying and selling space through its Zillow Offers program, allowing homeowners to sell their properties directly to the company. This ambitious move aimed to simplify the often cumbersome transaction process and position Zillow as a o...
Zillow Group Inc. is an innovative powerhouse in the online real estate marketplace, connecting buyers, sellers, and renters with vital housing information through its user-friendly platform. Founded in 2006, the company revolutionized how people search for homes by providing comprehensive listings, advanced search tools, and valuable market insights. In recent years, Zillow has expanded its reach beyond just a listing service; it ventured into the real estate buying and selling space through its Zillow Offers program, allowing homeowners to sell their properties directly to the company. This ambitious move aimed to simplify the often cumbersome transaction process and position Zillow as a one-stop shop for real estate needs.
For investors, Zillow stands at the confluence of technology and housing, two sectors ripe with opportunities for growth. Despite facing challenges, such as the fluctuating real estate market and competition from other online platforms, Zillow’s persistent innovation and adaptation have kept it relevant. The company continues to leverage data analytics to enhance user experiences and refine its offerings. As home buying trends evolve, coupled with the ongoing digitization of the real estate industry, Zillow stands to benefit greatly from its established brand recognition and vast user base. This combination of technology and market expertise positions Zillow Group Inc. as a compelling prospect for investors looking to enter or expand their presence in the dynamic real estate sector.
Zillow Group Inc. operates primarily in the online real estate space and has several core business segments that contribute to its overall performance. Here are the main segments:
-
Zillow Premier Agent:
- This segment focuses on connecting real estate agents with potential home buyers and sellers. It generates revenue through advertising solutions where agents pay to be featured prominently on Zillow's listings. The Premier Agent program allows for targeted advertising to attract leads specific to agents' geographic areas.
-
Zillow Offers:
- This is part of Zillow's iBuyer program, where the company directly purchases homes from sellers, makes necessary repairs, and then resells them. This model allows for a streamlined selling process for home sellers and positions Zillow as a direct competitor in the residential real estate market.
-
Zillow Home Loans:
- Zillow offers mortgage services aimed at facilitating the financing aspect of home purchases. This segment integrates closely with the Premier Agent and Zillow Offers businesses, streamlining the process for buyers and enriching Zillow's revenue through mortgage origination fees and interest income.
-
Zillow Rentals:
- This segment provides resources for landlords and tenants, including rental listings and tools for property management. Revenue is generated from services that help landlords advertise their properties and manage their rental processes more efficiently.
-
Zillow Data and Technology:
- Zillow also leverages its proprietary data and technology to provide insights and analytics to various stakeholders in the real estate market. This includes tools such as Zestimate, which estimates home values based on market trends and property characteristics.
These segments work together to create a comprehensive platform for consumers and real estate professionals, enhancing the overall value proposition of Zillow Group Inc. in the competitive real estate market.
Zillow Group Inc. operates in a highly competitive real estate market, and it possesses several unique competitive advantages that set it apart from its rivals:
-
Brand Recognition and Trust: Zillow is one of the most recognized names in the real estate market. Its strong brand equity is built on years of providing reliable and comprehensive housing data, which fosters trust among users.
-
Data and Analytics: Zillow has accumulated vast amounts of real estate data over the years, including property listings, historical prices, market trends, and user interactions. This extensive dataset allows Zillow to provide valuable insights and predictive analytics, making it a critical resource for buyers, sellers, and real estate professionals.
-
Zestimate: Zillow's proprietary estimate tool, known as the "Zestimate," offers users an estimated market value for homes based on a variety of data inputs. This feature not only attracts potential buyers and sellers but also serves as a unique selling point that differentiates Zillow from other platforms.
-
Diverse Revenue Streams: Unlike many competitors that rely solely on advertising revenue, Zillow has multiple revenue streams, including real estate listings, lead generation for agents, Zillow Offers (its iBuyer program), and mortgage solutions through Zillow Home Loans. This diversification reduces reliance on any single revenue source.
-
User Experience and Technology: Zillow leverages advanced technology to enhance user experience. Its user-friendly interface, mobile app, and innovative features like virtual tours and augmented reality listings help keep users engaged and facilitate smoother transactions.
-
Extensive Network of Partnerships: Zillow has established strong relationships with real estate agents, brokers, and other stakeholders in the industry. This network allows it to provide high-quality leads and services to its clients, enhancing its value proposition.
-
Scale and Market Presence: Zillow's significant scale allows it to invest in marketing, technology, and product development in ways that smaller competitors may not be able to. Its large audience base provides a unique platform for targeted advertising, which can attract more agents and service providers.
-
Focus on Customer Experience: Zillow’s commitment to improving the customer experience through personalized offerings, such as tailored recommendations and customer support, fosters user loyalty and differentiates the platform in a crowded marketplace.
-
National Reach with Local Insight: Zillow combines a national brand presence with local market insights, allowing it to serve a wide audience while catering to specific regional needs and preferences.
These competitive advantages enable Zillow Group Inc. to maintain a strong position in the real estate market and continue to evolve in response to industry changes and consumer preferences.
Zillow Group Inc. faces several risks and challenges in the near future, which can impact its business model and overall performance. Here are some of the key ones:
-
Market Volatility: The real estate market can be highly volatile, impacted by economic conditions, interest rates, and housing supply and demand. Fluctuations can directly affect Zillow’s core business and revenue streams.
-
Interest Rate Changes: Rising interest rates can lead to decreased affordability for homebuyers, impacting market activity and Zillow’s revenue from its real estate services.
-
Competition: Zillow faces intense competition from other real estate platforms and traditional real estate companies. Competitors may innovate faster or offer better services, which can erode Zillow's market share.
-
Operational Challenges in Home Buying/Selling: Zillow's foray into direct home buying through its "Zillow Offers" program has inherent risks, such as high cash outlays, mispriced properties, and the complexities of managing inventory.
-
Regulatory Risks: Changes in housing regulations or local zoning laws can affect Zillow's operations. Additionally, compliance with privacy and data protection regulations is crucial but can be challenging.
-
Economic Downturns: Economic slowdowns can reduce consumer confidence and spending, leading to declines in real estate activity and subsequent revenue for Zillow’s services.
-
Brand Reputation: As a technology company involved in personal data handling and transactions, Zillow is at risk of data breaches or reputational damage, which could undermine consumer trust.
-
Technological Changes: The technological landscape is rapidly evolving. Zillow needs to continuously innovate and adapt to meet changing consumer expectations and technological advancements.
-
Dependency on Advertising Revenue: A significant portion of Zillow's revenue comes from advertising. Any downturn in advertising spends from real estate professionals could negatively impact financial performance.
-
Customer Loyalty and Unit Economics: Maintaining customer loyalty against other platforms and ensuring a positive unit economics balance in transactions is vital, and this can be a challenge in fluctuating markets.
By staying informed about these risks and continually adapting its strategies, Zillow can navigate these challenges effectively.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Zillow Group Inc
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Zillow Group Inc
| Current Assets | 2.7B |
| Cash & Short-Term Investments | 2.2B |
| Receivables | 265m |
| Other Current Assets | 231m |
| Non-Current Assets | 3.5B |
| PP&E | 417m |
| Intangibles | 3B |
| Other Non-Current Assets | 44m |
| Current Liabilities | 854m |
| Accounts Payable | 53m |
| Accrued Liabilities | 178m |
| Short-Term Debt | 148m |
| Other Current Liabilities | 475m |
| Non-Current Liabilities | 649m |
| Long-Term Debt | 497m |
| Other Non-Current Liabilities | 152m |
Earnings Waterfall
Zillow Group Inc
|
Revenue
|
2.2B
USD
|
|
Cost of Revenue
|
-508m
USD
|
|
Gross Profit
|
1.6B
USD
|
|
Operating Expenses
|
-1.9B
USD
|
|
Operating Income
|
-214m
USD
|
|
Other Expenses
|
81m
USD
|
|
Net Income
|
-133m
USD
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
Zillow Group Inc
| USD | |
| Free Cash Flow | USD |
Zillow reported robust Q3 results with a 17% revenue increase year-over-year to $581 million, surpassing expectations. The residential sector grew by 12% to $405 million, and Rentals surged 24%, fueled by a 38% rise in multifamily revenue. Notably, Mortgages revenue soared 63% as loan origination volumes expanded by 80%. Despite a $20 million net loss, operational efficiency led to a 22% EBITDA margin. Looking ahead, Q4 revenues are projected between $525-$540 million, with Rental growth in the mid-20% range and Mortgages anticipated to grow by 60%. Full-year 2024 growth is expected at 14%, with a 22% EBITDA margin.
What is Earnings Call?
ZG Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Zillow Group Inc's profitability score is 44/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Zillow Group Inc's profitability score is 44/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
ZG Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Zillow Group Inc's solvency score is 83/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Zillow Group Inc's solvency score is 83/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
ZG Price Targets Summary
Zillow Group Inc
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for
ZG
is 72.48 USD
with a low forecast of 47.47 USD and a high forecast of 96.6 USD.
Click here to dive deeper.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for ZG is
.
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Ownership
ZG Insider Trading
Buy and sell transactions by insiders
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Profile
Zillow Group Inc
Country
Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
Zillow Group Inc is a US-based company operating in Real Estate Management & Development industry. The company is headquartered in Seattle, Washington and currently employs 8,005 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2011-07-20. Zillow Group, Inc. owns and operates a portfolio of real estate brands on mobile applications and Websites. The Company’s segments include Homes, Internet, Media & Technology (IMT), and Mortgages. The Homes segment provides financial results of purchase and sale of homes through Zillow Offers and the financial results from title and escrow services through Zillow Closing Services. The IMT segment includes the financial results for the premier agent, rentals and new construction marketplaces, dotloop, display, and other advertising and business software solutions. The Mortgages segment includes financial results for mortgage originations through Zillow Home Loans, advertising sold to mortgage lenders and other mortgage professionals, as well as Mortech mortgage software solutions. Its affiliates and subsidiaries include Zillow, Zillow Offers, Zillow Premier Agent, Zillow Home Loans, Zillow Homes, Inc., Trulia, Out East, ShowingTime, Bridge Interactive, dotloop, StreetEasy and HotPads.
Contact
IPO
Employees
Officers
The intrinsic value of one
ZG
stock under the Base Case scenario is
45.52
USD.
Compared to the current market price of 80.79 USD,
Zillow Group Inc
is
Overvalued by 44%.
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