Texas Instruments Inc

NASDAQ:TXN

Earnings Call Analysis

Texas Instruments Q3 2024: Revenue Growth Amid Mixed Market Conditions

In Q3 2024, Texas Instruments reported $4.2 billion in revenue, marking a 9% sequential rise but an 8% decline year-over-year. The automotive sector saw upper single-digit growth, primarily from China, while personal electronics surged 30%. Gross profit was $2.5 billion, leading to a gross margin of 60%, up 180 basis points sequentially. The company expects Q4 revenue between $3.7 billion and $4 billion, with earnings per share projected between $1.07 and $1.29. Texas Instruments continues to maintain financial strength, returning $5.2 billion to shareholders over the past year, including a recent 5% dividend increase.

Steady Revenue Amidst Challenges

Texas Instruments (TI) reported third-quarter revenue of $4.2 billion, which represents a sequential increase of 9% but a decline of 8% year-over-year. This performance underscores the cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry, where certain markets have shown resilience while others continue to struggle.

Market Insights: A Closer Look

Diving deeper into the performance by market segments, the industrial sector experienced a low single-digit decline as customers worked to reduce inventory levels. In contrast, the automotive sector saw robust growth in the upper single digits, primarily driven by demand in China. Personal electronics surged by approximately 30%, enterprise systems increased by 20%, and communication equipment also rose by about 25%. This highlights the asynchronous nature of the market's recovery; while some sectors are rebounding, others lag behind.

Profitability and Cash Flow

Gross profit for the quarter stood at $2.5 billion, translating to a margin of 60%, reflecting a sequential improvement of 180 basis points attributed to higher revenue. Operating profit fell to $1.6 billion, or 37% of revenue, down 18% from the previous year. Despite the profit decline, cash flow from operations totaled $1.7 billion for the quarter, contributing to a healthy $6.2 billion over the past 12 months. The strong cash generation supports TI's strategy for capital returns.

Shareholder Returns and Financial Strength

In terms of capital management, TI returned an impressive $5.2 billion to shareholders in the last year, consisting of $1.2 billion in dividends and $318 million in stock repurchases. The company's commitment to returning excess cash is reflected in a 5% increase in dividends, marking the 21st consecutive year of dividend growth. TI maintains a solid balance sheet with $8.8 billion in cash and short-term investments, despite having $14 billion in total debt at a weighted average interest rate of 3.8%.

Outlook and Guidance

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, TI projects revenue between $3.7 billion and $4 billion, with estimated earnings per share ranging from $1.07 to $1.29. The guidance reflects expected margin pressures due to reduced revenue and increased depreciation, anticipated to push gross margins lower. The effective tax rate is expected to remain around 13%.

Sector Recovery and Future Prospects

While personal electronics, enterprise systems, and communication have shown signs of recovery, TI acknowledges the continued weakness in sectors like industrial and automotive aside from China. The overall automotive market is expected to stabilize, although the U.S. and European markets have shown a downturn. Analysts at the call underscored the potential for TI's embedded processing segment to gain traction in the upcoming recovery phases.

Conclusion: Vigilant Yet Optimistic

Texas Instruments’ Q3 results illustrate the complexities of the semiconductor market landscape where cyclicality and asynchronous recoveries coexist. While certain markets demonstrate strong growth, others continue to face challenges. For investors, understanding TI's strategy of maintaining a strong cash position and returning value to shareholders will be crucial as the company navigates through current market dynamics and prepares for a potential upturn.

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q3

[Dave Pahl, executive]

Welcome to the Texas Instruments Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. I'm Dave Pahl, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined by our Chief Executive Officer, Haviv Ilan and our Chief Financial Officer, Rafael Lizardi. For any of you who missed the release, you can find it on our website at ti.com/ir.

This call is being broadcast live over the web and can be accessed through our website. In addition, today's call is being recorded and will be available via replay on our website.

This call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause TI's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the notice regarding forward-looking statements contained in the earnings release published today as well as TI's most recent SEC filings for a more complete description.

Today, we'll provide the following updates. First, Haviv will start with a quick overview of the quarter. Next, he'll provide insight into third quarter revenue results with some details of what we're seeing with respect to our end markets. And lastly, Rafael will cover the financial results, give an update on our capital management as well as share the guidance for the fourth quarter of 2024.

With that, let me turn it over to Haviv.

[Haviv Ilan, executive]

Thanks, Dave.

Let me start with a quick overview of the third quarter. Revenue in the quarter came in about as expected at $4.2 billion, an increase of 9% sequentially and a decrease of 8% year-over-year. Analog revenue declined 4% year-over-year and Embedded Processing declined 27%. Our Other segment declined 5% from the year ago quarter.

Now I'll provide some insight into our third quarter revenue by end markets. Our results continue to reflect the asynchronous market behavior that we've seen throughout this cycle. Similar to last quarter, I'll focus on sequential performance as it is more informative at this time.

First, the industrial market was down low single digits as customers continue to reduce their inventory levels. The automotive market increased upper single digits, primarily due to strength in China. Personal electronics grew about 30%, Enterprise systems was up about 20% and communication equipment was up about 25% as the cyclical recovery continued in these 3 markets.

With that, let me turn it over to Rafael to review profitability, capital management and our outlook.

[Rafael Lizardi, executive]

Thanks, Haviv, and good afternoon, everyone.

As Haviv mentioned, third quarter revenue was $4.2 billion. Gross profit in the quarter was $2.5 billion or 60% of revenue. Sequentially, gross profit margin increased 180 basis points, primarily due to higher revenue.

Operating expenses in the quarter were $920 million, about flat from a year ago and about as expected. On a trailing 12-month basis, operating expenses were $3.7 billion or 24% of revenue. Operating profit was $1.6 billion in the quarter or 37% of revenue and was down 18% from the year ago quarter. Net income in the quarter was $1.4 billion or $1.47 per share. Earnings per share included a $0.03 benefit for items that were not in our original guidance.

Let me now comment on our capital management results, starting with our cash generation. Cash flow from operations was $1.7 billion in the quarter and $6.2 billion on a trailing 12-month basis. Capital expenditures were $1.3 billion in the quarter and $4.8 billion over the last 12 months. Free cash flow on a trailing 12-month basis was $1.5 billion. As a reminder, free cash flow includes benefits from the CHIPS Act investment tax credit, which was $220 million in third quarter and $532 million on a trailing 12-month basis.

In the quarter, we paid $1.2 billion in dividends and repurchased $318 million of our stock. In September, we announced we would increase our dividend by 5%, marking our 21st consecutive year of dividend increases. This reflects our continued commitment to return free cash flow to our owners over time. In total, we returned $5.2 billion to our owners in the past 12 months. Our balance sheet remains strong with $8.8 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of the third quarter. Total debt outstanding is $14 billion with a weighted average coupon of 3.8%.

Inventory at the end of the quarter was $4.3 billion, up $190 million from the prior quarter, and days were 231 up 2 days sequentially. For the fourth quarter, we expect the revenue in the range of $3.7 billion to $4 billion and earnings per share to be in the range of $1.07 to $1.29. We continue to expect our effective tax rate to be about 13% in the fourth quarter. As you're looking at 2025, based on current tax law, we would expect our effective tax rate to remain about the same.

In closing, we will stay focused in the areas that add value in the long term. We continue to invest in our competitive advantages, which are manufacturing and technology, a broad product portfolio, reach of our channels and diverse and long-lived positions. We will continue to strengthen these advantages through disciplined capital allocation and by focusing on the best opportunities, which we believe will enable us to continue to deliver free cash flow per share growth over the long term.

With that, let me turn it back to Dave.

[Dave Pahl, executive]

Thanks, Rafael.

Operator, you can now open the lines for questions. In order to provide as many of you as possible an opportunity to ask your questions, please limit yourself to a single question. After our response, we'll provide you an opportunity for a follow-up. Operator?

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

[Timothy Arcuri, analyst]

I guess the first question is autos grew, I think that was a little bit of a surprise to a lot of us. Can you talk about what's going on there? You did cite China. But did orders weaken late in the quarter at all? I mean, we saw pretty much every automaker negative preannounce. So can you talk about maybe what you're seeing in autos? And maybe if you can provide a little commentary for December, what the outlook is there? Is it sort of anything you'd call out in December in terms of end markets?

[Haviv Ilan, executive]

Okay. Tim, let me start with that. This is Haviv. So regarding the automotive market, yes, it did grow, we said high single digits, around between 7% and 8%. And that was really driven -- most of the growth came from our business in China. I think I've mentioned also in the second quarter, we saw strength in China and automotive drove that growth as well. It kind of recurred in the third quarter. Just to give you some high-level numbers, it grew 20% in Q2 and another 20% in Q3. I think it's not a surprise that there is momentum for EVs in China, our content is growing there and that's what really drove the growth in the third quarter.

I expect that to -- I mean, I think this is not a one quarter thing. I think the growing momentum there, i.e. our automotive revenue in China is in an all new time high. So I don't think that goes down in the near future.

Now the rest of the automotive market is different, okay? We are seeing a continued weakness over there. That revenue peaked in the third quarter of '23, and in general, trended down. If I put China aside, that had a quick correction in Q4 and Q1, the rest of the market, I see a continued weakness. I think that's part of our, call it, seasonal forecast for Q4.

[Dave Pahl, executive]

You have a follow on, Tim?

[Timothy Arcuri, analyst]

I do. Yes. Rafael, so if I look at the guidance, OpEx is usually, I think, down low to mid-single digits for December. So if you assume even down mid-singles, you get gross margin sort of in the mid-50s. It's down like 200 basis points stripping out depreciation. So that's a pretty big decline. So I guess are you taking down loadings in December? I do see that finished goods was up a lot. So if you can talk about that.

[Rafael Lizardi, executive]

Yes. So a couple of things in your question. Let me try to address them. OpEx, nothing unusual, but we do probably expect it to be flat to slightly up. So consider that.

As far as the fourth quarter, with revenue at the midpoint decreasing, that takes the hit on margins, of course. So we would expect -- we do expect gross margins to be down. Also, depreciation will continue to increase. And in fact, in October, we began depreciating the building and the clean room for SM1. So that continues to put -- that's going to put even more upward pressure on depreciation in fourth quarter.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya with Bank of America Securities.

[Vivek Arya, analyst]

Haviv you -- so first, thanks for providing the end market commentary. I think you mentioned personal electronic demand went up, I think 30% sequentially is what I recall, it was up mid-teens in Q2 also. How do we square your strength in personal electronics with the more kind of sluggish demand that we see for PCs and phones? Is it something outside of those areas? Or are those areas doing better? Just what do you attribute the strength in personal electronics? Or do you think the market is just kind of bottomed from a cyclical perspective?

[Haviv Ilan, executive]

Yes. I think that's a great question. Let me just walk through what we've seen over the last even couple of years. So I mean, that revenue in the personal electronics market, it peaked in the third quarter of 2021. By the way, the third quarter is typically our peak quarter every year. There is a seasonality strength every third quarter for PE. And it dropped in the first quarter of '23. And since then, we have seen continuous improvement.

But I would say, Vivek, as I look at our third quarter of '24, it's still running at a lower level than the peak. It's running about 20% lower than the '21 peak. So there is still room to grow.

And in our case, as I think I've mentioned in some of the calls, when we were short in with the supply capacity back in '21, '22, where we had to take some calls where was to bias our supply towards industrial and automotive, the personal electronics has a shorter design cycle. We said we'd go attack that once the capacity and inventory are back in place, that's the case right now. So I think we are coming off of a very low trough. Plus, again, having the right parts to go back and win SOCs that we couldn't sell before. So that's what I'm seeing right now.

In terms of specifically into the third quarter, I think growth was across all the sectors or most of the sectors. The main ones are phones and notebook, PCs. But in general, the third quarter, as I've said, is a typical strong quarter for PE.

[Dave Pahl, executive]

You have a follow-up to that?

[Vivek Arya, analyst]

Yes. So a bigger picture question, Haviv, is on -- in the last few calls, there's been a suggestion that perhaps by calendar '26, TI will conceptually be close, if not more, than what you were in calendar '22. And people have kind of rightly been pushed back and said, well, that requires mid-teens sales growth in the next 2 years, well above the trend line.

At what point do you think you will start to see those above seasonal quarters to help us get to that above-trend growth for the next 2 years? So I understand you're not giving guidance, but what are you seeing in the broader end markets? And do you think TI is at a point where those kind of above seasonal quarters are line of sight? Or is it too early to make that judgment?

[Haviv Ilan, executive]

Yes. First, just to recap on your question, Vivek. Thanks. The -- I think you're referring to our capital management call we had in August. So I just would ask people to look at what exactly we presented there. I think you referred to a 2026 scenario, a set of scenarios that we've presented there from flat to growth versus 2018. And we didn't say we are predicting what revenue would be, but it allows investors to kind of have a view on free cash flow per share according to the revenue scenario, and I think it allows you guys to model it up or down revenue and know what free cash flow will do during that year.

Now more specifically to your question. Look, the -- we talked about 3 markets that are already in the midst of a cyclical recovery. I think they are not done yet, but they are pointing in the right direction. That's personal electronics, enterprise systems and communication system for us coming from a very low trough but showing momentum. And I think that we are in the process of strengthening.

Unfortunately, these markets were about 25% of our revenue in '23, and in our case, we really need the broad industrial market and the automotive market to join, okay? So if I go to industrial first, revenue peaked in the third quarter of '22. We've seen 8 quarters of decline. We are more than 30% down versus the peak. So I don't think we -- I hope. I can't predict it. I don't think we have a lot left, okay? I think the inventory correction is still ongoing, but I do expect that to start to recover, I cannot predict the quarter because usually, when we see it, we call it. I will just say we haven't seen it yet, and it's been quite persistent okay? That's on the industrial side. And I can go even into the sectors. Most of the sectors are showing either still searching for a bottom or hovering at a very low level, okay? So it's about time, but we haven't seen it yet.

On the automotive market, I think it's more complex because this is where we see a different story between China and the rest of the market. Unfortunately, China is about 20% of our business, so it cannot move the overall automotive number for the company. But I think, as I mentioned before, we are right now at a lower single digit versus the peak kind of hovering in that minus -- sorry it's not lower single digits. I would say upper single digit, but somewhere between 5% to 10% versus the peak on automotive.

In China, we have new records being established, and I think there is momentum over there. But the other markets or the other geographies, sorry, on automotive are still searching for that bottom. I do expect when it all adds up, automotive will establish a lower peak to trough cycle and not close to the industrial side, but I can't give you a precise time for that, Vivek.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse with Cantor.

[Christopher Muse, analyst]

I guess first question, bigger picture, I guess, given the cyclical uncertainty, how are you thinking about kind of running utilization rates into Q4 and first half of '25? And as part of that with inventory at $4.3 billion, are you looking to continue to grow that and elevate utilization or keep it where it is until you really see signs of that cyclical recovery? Would love to hear your thoughts there.

[Rafael Lizardi, executive]

Yes. No, happy to do that. So first, bigger picture, and then I'll get into maybe some specifics. But the objective for inventories to support revenue growth as we prepare for the upturn, as Haviv described in our expectations going forward, particularly in 2025, we do expect to grow inventory in fourth quarter. So we grew a couple of hundred million in third quarter. We expect probably a few hundred million of inventory growth again in fourth quarter. But that is -- we have moderated the factory loadings. So factory loadings, I expect those to go slightly down going into fourth quarter. But despite that, we'll still grow additional inventory.

Just to comment a little more on the inventory. We have detailed plans by device, at the finished goods level, at the chips level and those plans are grounded on purchasing behavior and expected demand, and this inventory is very low risk. It sells to many, many customers and it has a long life cycle. So we feel really good about that.

[Dave Pahl, executive]

Do you have a follow on?

[Christopher Muse, analyst]

I do. I would hope to follow up on auto. You talked about that as a surprise in China. I'm curious if you could speak to Chinese OEMs taking share in Europe. That's something that we've kind of picked up. And curious, perhaps maybe the data points were picking up in Europe related a little more to share loss there to some of the Chinese OEMs. Are you seeing that?

[Haviv Ilan, executive]

It's no surprise, I think not a surprise because we've seen that trend starting in Q2. So to me, the automotive market in China for TI, it again peaked in that end of '23, call it, second half of '23. We saw a very sharp correction in Q1. I think that was mainly inventory correction. And then growth in Q2, growth in Q3, it's 20% on top of 20%. So think about it running at 45% of the trough and again a new peak.

I think that is mainly driven by the China market, right? If you think about -- and I was just there a couple of months ago, most of the new -- I think now majority of new cars are EVs, right, or some sort of hybrid and these tend to have more content. And again, our position there is good. TI is very competitive. So I think that drives growth.

Now our customer base in China is a set of OEMs, but also Tier 1s and you guys know the OEMs sharing the experts there. But the Tier 1s are also, I think, are -- they are -- they can build those systems. They are very efficient in cost, performance is pretty good. So I think they also compete for market shares versus the worldwide Tier 1s. And I think as part of the dynamics we see in the China market. We see momentum on both.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.

[Ross Seymore, analyst]

Haviv, you talked a couple of times about China going up 20% sequentially 2 quarters in a row. Is there any reason that the other 80% of the business shouldn't have that sort of a cyclical rebound at some point? Is there something that's unique about China that allows it to be more volatile? Or is the expectation that you would have that the other 80% of your business at some point in time should do the same thing?

[Haviv Ilan, executive]

First, I think at some point of time, all the horses will point in the same direction, and we all are waiting for that. It's been a while, but I think that happens. Again, this asynchronous behavior, it's so clear for -- to us. You can see an opposite behavior between geographies, between markets, I will say that, again, as we talked about in the previous response or my previous answer, there is a stronger EV momentum in China. On top of it, I think the China call it culture, call it environment is the design cycle so quick. Inventory corrections are quick. So there is a little bit of a -- everything is more accelerated, I would say, over there. And I think that's why we are seeing shorter cycles in terms of the way up, the way down. That would be my guess. But I think we'll all be able -- we'll be smarter only when that thing is done or played out completely.

All I can say that I've not seen the played out completely on the automotive market outside of China. But I don't think -- again, I don't think the peak to trough on the automotive market is going to be as pronounced as industrial simply because the secular growth over there, I believe, is stronger in the short term.

[Dave Pahl, executive]

You have a follow on, Ross?

[Ross Seymore, analyst]

Yes, I do. One for Rafael. On the OpEx side of things, just a conceptual question. As we look into 2025, kind of what would be the puts and takes on OpEx? And I guess the punchline is, you guys have kept OpEx in certain periods of time barely growing year-over-year. And other years inflation has been something you guys have had to endure as well. So how do we think about OpEx kind of structurally in 2025?

[Rafael Lizardi, executive]

Yes. In fact, for '25 and beyond, the way to think about it is we continue to have a disciplined process, as you alluded to, on our investments and our OpEx. But when it comes to R&D, we'll continue to invest there. So you'll see our investments grow over time and continue to grow. Whereas in SG&A, the focus there is efficiency. So continue to drive efficiency. So there -- it will probably grow, but at a much lower pace than R&D. And of course, revenue, the goal is for both of those to be under the revenue growth for the foreseeable future.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.

[Stacy Rasgon, analyst]

I wanted to drill a little bit more into that China strength. So you're seeing it in auto. Are you seeing any signs of like China strength in Analog or anywhere else in any other end market? Is it just completely focused on automotive at this point?

And I guess what I'm getting at is I'm trying to judge the propensity of some of the Chinese guys maybe could be buying more. We've got an election coming up. Nobody exactly knows what's going on with the general geopolitical environment. Just what do you see more broadly in China, both in and outside of auto?

[Haviv Ilan, executive]

Yes. Thanks. I can tell you what we see. And again, I -- it's hard for me to speculate beyond what we see. But in general, just a reminder, as I said, during the up cycle, we had to bias our supply into the industrial and automotive markets, okay? So clearly, the -- and I think we said the company was at about 75% in Industrial and Automotive in 2023. China was similar, maybe even higher because we had to take some of the calls on the consumer or PE side. So just to know where we're starting for -- front.

So in automotive, I think, as I said before, I can't tell you the reason for that. But I think part of it is the -- I think the China customers are fast moving, I think they are gaining momentum worldwide, not only in China.

The second thing is, I think it's acceptance of EVs in China, and there may be some other reasons as you have mentioned, but we have not seen a clear evidence for that, okay, of a very large inventory buildup or anything like that. That's on your direct question of automotive.

On the industrial side, we have not seen China recovering from the cycle yet. So we -- again, we -- it has peaked somewhere in 2022, in China included. And since then, it had a little bit of a sequential growth in Q2, but then it went down again in Q3, so kind of hovering at the bottom. That's the way I would describe it.

So we are waiting for that to happen. We have seen a very strong recovery in automotive, actually with a new high, but the industrial numbers are still trending about 40% or so, maybe even higher in China versus the peak. So a lot of work for us to do in China. I don't think -- I think it's just -- I think customers, as we said -- as I said in my prepared remarks, are still working through some inventory over there on the industrial side.

[Dave Pahl, executive]

And maybe just to add one thing. When you look at, Stacy, the other 3 markets that are cyclically recovering, personal electronics, comms and entertainment, all of the regions are growing and contributing to that.

[Haviv Ilan, executive]

Yes, in China included, right? But again, off of a very low number, if you will, in '23.

[Dave Pahl, executive]

Do you have a follow on, Stacy?

[Stacy Rasgon, analyst]

I do. I know you guys don't guide 2 quarters ahead. But just mathematically, we've been sort of looking at performance versus normal seasonality. How would you guys define typical seasonality for Q1? And maybe like what is it over the last several years? And how would you define it like versus like pre-COVID levels?

[Haviv Ilan, executive]

So maybe I'll talk about Q4, Stacy. And some people -- it depends how you define seasonality. I like the way you do it, you kind of need to take the outliers away. And I think 2020 and 2021 were the outliers during the up cycle and typically in the fourth quarter, we see kind of a minus 7% to even sometimes close to minus 10%. Dave, the Q1 one, can you add what or...

[Dave Pahl, executive]

Yes. It's more -- it's usually more flat, it's more flattish, maybe down a little bit. But fourth quarter and first quarter are definitely our seasonally weaker quarters. Second and third are obviously the stronger quarters.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Thomas O'Malley with Barclays.

[Thomas O'Malley, analyst]

Haviv, I just wanted to clarify some comments you made in the preamble. You kind of talked about the 3 markets, enterprise, PE and comm still correcting but showing momentum. So not finished, but showing some progress. Are those still sequentially declining? Or are 1 or 2 of those actually coming off of the bottom and improving?

[Haviv Ilan, executive]

No. I think all 3 are sequentially growing in a fast pace. So I think just to repeat the numbers, I think PE grew 30% sequentially and enterprise grew 20% sequentially and comps grew 25% sequentially.

My point is that they are still not at the previous peak, okay? So to me, when I think about the momentum, I think I expect momentum to continue to build. I think we are still running below the previous peak that was somewhere in the year 2022. And I expect that momentum to continue. I think also, as I mentioned before, specifically for TI, these are the markets where we were, in some cases, short in the previous up cycle. And it's our job to go back and address these sockets now when we have enough supply and inventory, okay?

[Dave Pahl, executive]

Follow on, Tom?

[Thomas O'Malley, analyst]

Yes. And then just broadly, kind of during the pandemic, you saw a lot of growth, and I think most of your peers and yourself started being more vocal about describing both auto and industrial as double-digit growers. So as this kind of correction continues, you're seeing the strength from China in your auto business. And obviously, that's a part of the broader business that contributes to that double-digit growth. But looking back now and as you see the recovery, would you think any differently about the growth profiles of those 2 businesses?

You obviously have your competitors coming up in a couple of weeks kind of going to restate their long-term CAGRs as well. Do you still see that double-digit growth profile as the right way to look at those 2 businesses?

[Haviv Ilan, executive]

Yes. And again, the short answer is yes, I see the same. I will say that even the current cycle on the automotive side is proving it, and I think we will all see that in the short term. When I talk about short term, it's 5 to 10 years. I think the growth in industrial is multi decades. I think we are on the -- in some of the, call it, sectors in industrial, we're only in the very, very beginning or early innings. So I think the industrial -- and I don't know if you say double digit, but I think TI grew 10% in the last decade, 2013 to 2023.

I think the market may be a little bit lower than that, I would guess. But call it high single to maybe 10% would be a good guess. I think the automotive market for TI and also for the market grew faster. But I think it's going to be -- I don't think it's going to run multiple decades, okay? At a certain point of time, there is going to be kind of some sort of saturation in terms of content per vehicle. I don't think we are close to that date now, specifically not in this decade. Hopefully, that helps.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

[Joseph Moore, analyst]

Great. I wonder if you could help characterize industrial. And I know you've talked about the various subsegments underneath of that. But is there an inventory correction that's uniform? Are there areas of strength? And just any sense of inventory versus demand issues that are kind of dragging that business down?

[Rafael Lizardi, executive]

Yes, Joe, great question. I mean I think we have more than 10 sectors, about 12 sectors in industrial and the -- the overall, they all add up to a continuous decline since the third quarter of '22. So it's the eighth quarter of decline.

We are seeing -- most of the sectors I would characterize are -- have found the bottom, but are kind of hovering at that bottom, okay? And think about areas for us like building automation, the energy infrastructure, medical, kind of hovering at that bottom.

On factory automation, we are seeing still -- and it's a large sector for us. You can think about factory automation and motor drive, it's all this process and factory automation type of plants, we are still seeing a decline. So they have not found the bottom.

And then you see a couple of strength areas. Appliances, some people don't have it in industrial. We do. Appliances declined very early, and we've seen some recovery there. And I would also add, in our case, we have power delivery, power delivery. Think about it, the main market is server, right? So that sits at the bottom of the rack. So we see growth over there. But these are the only 2 out of 12. So overall weakness in the industrial market, hopefully, that provides more color.

[Dave Pahl, executive]

You have a follow on, Joe?

[Joseph Moore, analyst]

Yes, I do. That's helpful. In terms of analog versus embedded, I know there's a -- that's been happening for a while, then embedded has underperformed. And there's a focus on kind of turning that around to a narrower focus area. I wonder if you could just characterize what's different about the embedded market on a sequential basis that it's weaker?

[Haviv Ilan, executive]

Yes, I'll start strategically. We are very pleased with the progress we are seeing in embedded. Embedded is more, think about this higher AUPs and more visibility, I would say, on design-ins, its less broad. So when we look at the progress, when we look at momentum with customers, I think it's -- we are excited about the future. And they are going through a cyclical process exactly like the Analog team has done, but they are kind of a year later. So again, embedded is almost 95% industrial and automotive.

They've seen growth in 2023 versus the industrial business -- versus the analog business that declined double digits. So they started almost a year after Analog, think about kind of middle of '23. We've seen 4 quarters. I think they are also looking at the seasonal quarter in Q4, but momentum there is strong, and I'm excited about the future there.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of William Stein with Truist Securities.

[William Stein, analyst]

I think earlier on the call, the question was asked, Haviv, you answered it for 1 or 2 end markets, but I'm hoping you can talk about how the pacing of orders progressed in the last couple of months. I wonder if you might have seen things accelerate to then only decelerate. If there's been any sort of ups and downs that have surprised you? And then I have a follow-up, please.

[Haviv Ilan, executive]

Yes. I think we -- what I said about the third quarter, I think you -- think about it there's not a lot of change that I see right now going into the fourth, but there is -- it's Q4, right? So there is a seasonality effect. In that sense, I don't see any change versus what we've seen in Q3. If we have -- if we would see something, I would call it out, but I cannot call out anything.

Dave, do you want to add anything on the order or...

[Dave Pahl, executive]

Yes, order rates, I think, were behaving normally, they increased each month in the quarter, which is very typical. So and we didn't see any large drop-offs or acceleration or deceleration on that front.

[Haviv Ilan, executive]

And Will, maybe just to add on that, just a reminder that we have built good service levels of inventory as Rafael mentioned. Our lead times are very low. So we get a lot of business kind of real time as it comes, people who call it turn business or -- so we simply don't have a ton of visibility right now. And customers also -- they take parts only when they need it. I don't think they are building inventory. So that's the reason that we cannot provide more color beyond what Dave said.

[Dave Pahl, executive]

Do you have a follow on?

[William Stein, analyst]

Yes, if I can follow up, it actually dovetails with the follow-on, which is when you all have inventory, your customers may not be all charged up about placing tons of backlog. And when they have inventory even more so. Our checks recently revealed that customers have more inventory than many suppliers thought like they were not sort of really close to the end of the inventory digestion at end customers. And I wonder if you could either dispel that or provide any insight as TI sees it?

[Haviv Ilan, executive]

Yes. I'll just answer at a high level, and Dave, maybe you can chime in. But look, in general, we don't have visibility into our customer inventory levels. I do think, as we all know, I mean, interest rates are high at the end of the year. I don't think there is a lot of desire to build inventory at our customers' shelves, especially when our inventory position is strong, and that's where we want to be.

We want to take that burden away from our customers to us, that means level of service, and we want to do it through not only the down cycle, but also the up cycle. Hence, the preparation of capacity and inventory, as Rafael said, that's the game we want to play in the next up cycle, and that's what drives our capital allocation decisions.

Dave have anything specific about the customer inventory?

[Dave Pahl, executive]

Yes. I think the point you made that we're essentially operating from a very healthy position on inventory. That means that customers don't have to place orders and that is keeping visibility low, but we want to be able to be ready for the upturn when it comes.

[Haviv Ilan, executive]

Yes, many of our lead times are well below 10 weeks today. So I mean, we provide, I call it excellent customer service and when customers need the part, we have it for them.

[Dave Pahl, executive]

Great. Thank you, Will, and we'll go to our last caller, please.

[Operator]

And our last question comes from the line of Tore Svanberg with Stifel.

[Tore Svanberg, analyst]

I had a follow-up question on the industrial market. Obviously, lead times are short and you have inventory. And I'm just wondering from an end market or a sell-through perspective, is it fair to say that that market is stabilizing? Is it getting worse? Is it getting better? I know you called out those 2 segments that are perhaps starting to stabilize, but any further read on the end consumption, they're actually getting better or worse?

[Haviv Ilan, executive]

Yes. Just what I -- just to repeat -- Tore, thanks for the question. Just repeating what I said, I think most of the sectors are hovering -- because we've seen like 3 or 4 quarters, hovering at the same level, more or less, okay? So I would say now you call it is there an inventory correction there or not. I mean, seasonality would say that industrial would grow, for example, in Q2 or Q3, and it didn't. So you can argue that there is some inventory correction at customers. And that's the reason for my prepared remarks.

But at least, I do believe that they have stabilized from a revenue perspective. I will say that the only -- and these are large sectors for TI, I will say that this is not done on the factory automation and motor drive, which is kind of this automation sector for TI. That was my only other color that I've added, Tore.

And I don't know, Dave, anything to add here?

[Dave Pahl, executive]

I think that's good. Do you have a follow on, Tore?

[Tore Svanberg, analyst]

Yes, just one last question. So going back to the whole topic about visibility orders and so on and so forth. When you talk to your customers, especially some of your non-Chinese customers, is there a sense that everyone is just waiting for rates to come down, getting through the U.S. election. Because it does feel like there's like some sort of a CapEx cycle coming, but everyone is just waiting on the sidelines.

When you talk to some of your biggest industrial customers, do you get a sense that they're waiting for that? Or is this is more just about, hey, once spending comes back with better rates and so on and so forth, we're sort of back to the races?

[Haviv Ilan, executive]

Short answer is no. We don't -- I don't hear that at least. I don't think if they think that they would tell me anyhow. But what I think is important to remember, and I think they value that because I hear it from the meetings I have, that when they need it, we have it, okay? And we are -- most of our portfolio is very diverse, long-lived, and we let the customers know what -- where we have enough inventory to serve them as they need it. And when they are more kind of unique, smaller part of our portfolio, but the lead times are getting longer and we require more visibility.

I think we are differentiated in that sense. Customers appreciate it. And hopefully, we can maintain that level of support through the next cycle and work on our market share. And I think that that is what customers expect, and I think TI can outperform in that sense.

Okay. So let me wrap it up. And with what we've said previously, at our core, we are engineers and technology is the foundation of our company. But ultimately, our objective and the best metric to measure progress and generate value for owners is the long-term growth of free cash flow per share. While we strive to achieve our objective, we will continue to pursue our 3 ambitions.

We will act like owners who will own the company for decades. We will adapt and succeed in a world that's ever changing. And we will be a company that we are personally proud to be part of and would want as our neighbor. When we are successful, our employees, customers, communities and owners all benefit. Thank you, and have a good evening.

[Operator]

And this concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.