Tractor Supply Co

NASDAQ:TSCO

Earnings Call Analysis

Tractor Supply's Q3 Performance and Optimistic Outlook

In Q3, Tractor Supply experienced a 1.6% net sales growth, with a slight 0.2% drop in comparable store sales. They reported a diluted EPS of $2.24. The company is raising its fiscal 2024 guidance, expecting net sales between $14.85 billion and $15 billion, with an operating margin of 9.8% to 10.1%. Emergency response metrics from recent hurricanes have positively influenced Q4 expectations. Notably, Tractor Supply now boasts over 37 million loyalty program members, evidenced by robust customer engagement and satisfaction. With a healthy supply chain and strong cash flows, they foresee continued growth despite macroeconomic challenges.

Overview of Financial Performance

In the third quarter, Tractor Supply Company reported net sales growth of 1.6%, although comparable store sales declined by 0.2%. This slight dip in comparable sales was somewhat offset by an increase in transaction growth of 0.3%, despite a 0.5% decline in the average ticket price. The diluted earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter stood at $2.24, slightly down from $2.33 in the previous year.

Margins and Operational Insights

The company experienced a gross margin increase of 56 basis points, attributed primarily to lower transportation costs and effective cost management strategies. However, the overall operating profit margin was reported at 9.4%. Selling, General and Administrative (SG&A) expenses grew by 119 basis points to 27.8%, mainly due to investments in growth initiatives, including a new distribution center.

Inventory and Financial Health

Tractor Supply reported merchandise inventories of $3.1 billion, up 4.3% in average inventory per store. The company effectively controlled inventory growth, reducing it by over 50% sequentially from the second quarter. The financial leverage ratio remained healthy at around 2x, and the company proudly returned over $760 million to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases.

Guidance for Fiscal 2024

Looking ahead, the company raised the lower end of its guidance for fiscal 2024, anticipating net sales in the range of $14.85 billion to $15 billion, with comparable store sales expected to be flat to a 1% increase. Operating margins are projected between 9.8% and 10.1%, while diluted EPS is expected to range from $10.10 to $10.40.

Impact of Seasonal Factors and Weather

The performance in the fourth quarter remains contingent on seasonal weather patterns, as colder weather drives sales for heating-related products. The company noted that sales from hurricane-related emergency responses benefited early sales in Q4, but overall, weather had a neutral impact in Q3. The company is monitoring the market closely as they expect an increasingly volatile consumer environment ahead.

Long-term Strategy and Customer Engagement

Tractor Supply's long-term strategy, labeled 'Life Out Here', is positioned to leverage rural markets and capitalized on customer loyalty through programs like Neighbor's Club, which boasts over 37 million members. The company plans an investment community day to further outline strategies that aim to bring significant growth opportunities, including planned store additions, renovations, and enhanced product offerings.

Innovations and Future Expansion

Exciting developments include a definitive agreement to acquire Alivet, an online pet pharmacy, which is expected to enhance customer services and increase the addressable market by approximately $15 billion. This acquisition aligns with the company's growth strategy and is anticipated to be accretive to earnings starting in 2025.

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q3

[Operator]

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Tractor Supply Company's conference call to discuss third quarter 2024 results. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that reproduction of this call in whole or in part is not permitted without written authorization of Tractor Supply Company. And as a reminder, this call is being recorded.

I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Mrs. Mary Winn Pilkington, Senior Vice President of Investor and Public Relations for Tractor Supply Company. Mary Winn, please go ahead.

[Mary Pilkington, executive]

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the time to join us today.

On the call today are Hal Lawton, our CEO; Kurt Barton, our CFO. After our prepared remarks, we'll open the call up for your questions. Seth Estep, our EVP and Chief Merchandising Officer, will join us for the question-and-answer session.

Please note that we have made a supplemental slide presentation available on our website to accompany today's earnings release.

Now let me reference the safe harbor provisions under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. This call may contain certain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, including the future operating and financial performance of the company. In many cases, these risks and uncertainties are beyond our control.

Although the company believes the expectations reflected in its forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can give no assurance that such expectations or any of its forward-looking statements will prove to be correct, and actual results may differ materially from expectations.

Important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected in the forward-looking statements are included at the end of the press release issued today and in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The information contained in this call is accurate only as of the date discussed. Investors should not assume that statements will remain operative at a later time. Tractor Supply undertakes no obligation to update any information discussed on this call.

Given the number of people who want to participate, we respectfully ask you to please limit yourself to 1 question. If you have additional questions, please feel free to get back in the queue. I appreciate your cooperation. We will be available after the call for follow-ups. Thank you for your time and attention this morning. Now it's my pleasure to turn it over to Hal.

[Harry Lawton, executive]

Thank you, Mary Winn, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. My sincere thanks and appreciation go out to my fellow 50,000 Tractor Supply team members. I know we've all been watching the devastation over the last few weeks that's been wrecked by Hurricane Helene and Milton with great concern and heartbreak.

Hurricane Helene struck particularly close to the heart for me, given my roots in East Tennessee. Tractor Supply has taken a multitude of actions, big and small to take care of our team members, customers and communities during this difficult time. I'd like to give a special thank you to all our team members who rallied to help the communities impacted by the storm season. We will continue to be there for our team members, customers, from our communities in the days and months ahead for the recovery process.

I would also like to thank our many vendor partners who are stepping up in the recovery effort. As it relates to a sales benefit from our response, we had no material benefit in Q3 but have seen an impact in Q4 and additionally have been somewhat encouraged by the recent change of seasons. This morning, we shared some exciting news that we've entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Alivet, a leading online pet pharmacy, this is a company we know very well as they've been excellent partners to us in fulfilling our pet subscription business for the last couple of years. This is a great opportunity for us to bring another benefit to our 37 million Neighbor's Club members. offers a convenient and cost-effective way to get medications and specialty items for their pets and livestock.

The addition of allows us to expand our total addressable market by about $15 billion. is a best-in-class platform with an excellent management team and a strong financial profile. This is a great example of a strategic tuck-in acquisition. We anticipate that will be accretive to earnings in 2025 and we look forward to welcoming the team to Tractor Supply.

We are planning to host an investment community day in New York City on the afternoon of Thursday, December 5. At that time, we look forward to providing more details on our Life Out Here strategy for the second half of the decade, including our plans to leverage online and in stores.

So now let's shift to the quarter. For the third quarter, the macro retail environment was in line with our expectations and our customer remained resilient. While the overall economy remains strong as evidenced by a 3% Q2 GDP -- overall retail sales continue to moderately underperform.

The primary driver of this underperformance is the continued shift of consumer spend to services. As a consequence, we estimate that retail sales growth was nearly flat in our third quarter. It is our estimate that the farm and ranch channel was modestly negative in the quarter and that we continue to be a share gainer. I would describe the sentiment of our customer as relatively stable as supported by the recent jobs report and the current unemployment rate of 4.1%.

Consistent with prior quarters, our consumer continues to be judicious with their spending focused on innovation, newness and needs-based products. Year-to-date, through the third quarter, the macro retail environment is running in line with the subdued expectations that we had as we entered the year. Also, as we expected, our team has managed our business exceptionally well.

Correspondingly, our sales and profitability to continue to run in the range of our beginning guidance and have allowed us to consistently raise the lower end of our outlook.

Let's turn to some highlights of our performance for the quarter. We grew net sales by 1.6%, with comparable store sales down a slight 0.2%. Diluted EPS was $2.24. Our comparable store sales performance was driven by transaction growth of 0.3% offset by average ticket decline of 0.5%.

Emergency response, as mentioned earlier, had no material impact on Q3 comp sales. As we shared on our last call, we anticipated that the quarter would be in line with our full year guidance. As we move through the quarter, many of the same trends from the first half of the year continued to play out. Notably, our customer engagement remains strong. The investments we've made in our Neighbor's Club, our world-class loyalty program are a competitive advantage for us as we continue to see solid growth in customer counts and retention. Our Neighbor's Club comp sales continue to outpace our overall sales growth.

At the same time, we reached an all-time high on our sales penetration and a record membership of more than 37 million members. Our Neighbor's Club retention rate remains remarkably consistent as our best customers continue to shop us more frequently and remain extremely loyal. Our Hometown Heroes program has gained traction with our customers as our store team members have rallied around this unique benefit as an opportunity to engage with veterans and first responders in their local communities.

Additionally, our new customer data platform has gone live for all stores and digital platforms, which will allow for greater data integrity, a 360-degree view of our customer and deeper personalization. Overall, our Neighbor's Club offerings continue to drive meaningful wins with our members. At Tractor Supply, we continue to invest in customer service as we believe is a differentiator for us.

Our customers come to us for trusted advice. Our commitment to excellence in service and investments in training, tools and technology are being recognized by our customers. Our scores continue to run at all-time highs with improvements year-over-year every month for 40 consecutive months.

Turning to our category performance. Strong positive comps and big ticket items continued for the third quarter notably in 0 turn and front agent riding law mowers as well as recreational vehicles. This year, our team did a tremendous job bringing newness and innovation with attractive pricing to these categories. And our customers have responded positively to the new product lineup and our investment in inventory.

As we experienced last quarter, we anticipated our consumable, usable and edible products would run modestly below the chain average in the third quarter as deflation weighed on our average unit retail. The needs-based, demand-driven nature of our product categories continues to drive unit velocity in this segment of our business. Specifically in pet food, industry data suggests the category was slightly positive in Q3 consistent with trends through the first part of the year as the category disinflates and pet ownership trends remain soft. Our business in this category, while moderating from historical trends continues to be a share winner in both households and dollars.

Although this is a small number, math at this point. A couple of data points on share. Tractor Supply was 2x the category growth rate in Q3 and nearly 6x out of the grocery channel, again, pointing back that this is a small number math relative to the previously higher growth rates that this category has seen in the last few years.

In the quarter, in the pet business, we invested in in-stock inventory rates maintain our emphasis on EDLP, leveraged our customer service to drive basket building and focused our marketing on the newness and innovation we've added to our lineup. In our most recent all-store meeting, we invested in training for our nearly 45,000 store team members on selling techniques for pet food and driving treat attachments.

We also had a very successful pet appreciation days where we marketed newly introduced brands like Akana and Real Mansa and our exclusive brands such as Retriever, 4Health and MuttNation by Miranda Lambert.

In equine, livestock of poultry feed, we continue to gain market share. While average unit retails are down mid- to high single digits in these categories, we had unit or pound growth across all species. And as large animal counts continue to be pressured, we are certainly a share winner with our strong unit performance.

Much like the first half of the year, categories that performed below our comp sales growth were in our discretionary businesses such as clothing, footwear and outdoor living as well as in hardlines products such as ag fencing and pet kennels. Additionally, seasonal businesses such as heating, heating fuel and insulated outerwear were negative.

Our customer continues to respond in newness and innovation. A great example is a strong start to our Halloween decor, which included a differentiated and expanded assortment such as the 6-foot roaster skeleton that went viral. Another great example is in wildlife supplies, we're a destination for Dear corn and have expanded this year into trail cameras and feeders.

Our digital sales continued to outperform with double-digit growth. The team has made substantial improvements in search and check out. We continue to accelerate our digital sales with platforms that set the standard for our customers and rival best-in-class retail experiences. We opened 16 new Tractor Supply stores in the quarter, bringing our year-to-date total to 54. Our new store productivity continues to perform very well. Our pipeline for '25 and into '26 remains very robust with significant runway for low-risk, value-creating organic growth ahead of us.

As we exited the third quarter, we have achieved some significant milestones in our Life Out Here strategy. We now have 45% of our chain in our Project Fusion layout and more than 550 garden centers. These are capital investments that provide a multiyear runway for growth and extend the terminal value of our stores. They help us to be more relevant to both our core and new customers allowing us to garner a greater share of their spending and be the dependable supplier for their lifestyle.

I commend the team on these investments and results given the scope and scale of these initiatives. It is hard to identify another retailer that has made this substantial investment in their store base in such a short period of time. We've also made major investments in our supply chain. Over the last 4 years, the team has added 2 million square feet to our DC capacity with the seamless opening of 2 new distribution centers.

These new DCs have allowed us to service our existing store base while providing flexibility for future volume and new store growth. The addition of 10 mixing centers, bringing our total to 16 has improved our service levels to our stores. A new import distribution center has also allowed for greater flexibility to flow our seasonal goods.

As a result, we have had a 20% structural improvement in our stem miles and corresponding cost savings. Our DC productivity has also reached strong levels. In conclusion, the team is performing admirably short term and long term. True to track supply style, we are efficiently managing the elements within our control and advancing our Life Out Here strategy.

As we enter the fourth quarter, we are raising the low end of our guidance for the fiscal '24 sales and earnings to reflect our performance year-to-date and our outlook for the fourth quarter of the year. The fourth quarter has started out well as we benefited from emergency response sales for Hurricane Helen and Milton, both of which were fourth quarter events for us. The sales benefit is reflected in our guidance for the year.

As we plan for the fourth quarter, we continue to anticipate that our customers remain prudent with our spending as is typical in an election year. We are capitalizing on our strengths and enhancing our competitive edge in the market. With the support of our team members, their strong connections with our customers and our successful strategic initiatives, we continue to outpace our competitors.

Now I'll turn the call over to Kurt to provide more color on our performance and outlook.

[Kurt Barton, executive]

Thank you, Hal, and good morning to everyone on the call. As Hal mentioned, our third quarter top line results were consistent with our expectations and in line with the results in the first half of the year. We saw continued strength in big-ticket sales, while our discretionary categories remained pressured. Our seasonal category performance, exclusive of big ticket was in line with chain average at a modest decline to prior year.

Similar to the first half of the year, we saw strong performance in seasonal categories, such as live goods, multis and soils, grilling and wildlife supplies. This was offset by softness in ag fencing, heating outdoor living and lawn and garden tools. As we expected, our Q performance was slightly below the chain average, given the retail price deflation and moderating pet category trends the industry is experiencing.

Retail price deflation, which was approximately 1% was in line with our expectations. The vast majority of this deflation came from our C categories. As Hal mentioned, we are pleased with our unit movement in Q as we successfully managed through the impact of deflation this quarter and are now starting to lap the beginning of this deflationary cycle from last year.

Our comp sales growth was relatively consistent across all regions of the chain within a range of down 2% to up modestly. The strongest regional performance was in Texahoma due to inventory investments made in big ticket, easier compares and better overall weather compared to last year. This strength was offset by pressure in the Far West, Midwest and Commonwealth as the summer heat lingered in the lack of the change of season to fall in these areas. As to the cadence of the quarter, all months were also in a relatively tight band of essentially plus or minus 1%.

Weather was generally a net neutral factor in the third quarter comparable sales results. Extreme heat persisted throughout the quarter in certain regions with no shift to cooler weather in the northern regions. Hurricane Helene and other storms in the last 2 weeks of the quarter did not produce net incremental sales to Q3 as any pre-hurricane demand was more than offset by softer volume in the South as a result of heavy rains and continued intense heat in the Far West and Midwest regions.

We do believe this created a timing shift that has benefited early Q4 sales. Moving down to our income statement. Our gross margin increased 56 basis points compared to last year. We continue to be very pleased with these results, which were driven primarily by ongoing lower transportation costs, along with disciplined product cost management and the continued execution of an everyday low price strategy.

These improvements were partially offset by the mix impact from strong growth in big ticket categories, which have below chain average margins. As a percent of net sales, SG&A expenses increased 119 basis points to 27.8%. This increase was primarily attributable to our planned growth investments, which included the onboarding of a new distribution center and higher depreciation and amortization as well as modest deleverage of our fixed costs, given the decline in comparable store sales.

The new DC was approximately a 25 basis point headwind on SG&A for the quarter. We were also lapping a onetime depreciation expense benefit in the prior year of approximately 35 basis points or $11 million. These factors were partially offset by strong productivity and cost control and, to a lesser extent, a slight benefit from our ongoing sale-leaseback transactions.

For the quarter, operating profit margin was 9.4%. Diluted EPS was $2.24 compared to $2.33 last year, which included an $0.08 benefit from the depreciation change I mentioned earlier.

Turning now to our balance sheet. Merchandise inventories were $3.1 billion at the end of the third quarter, representing an increase of 4.3% in average inventory per store. Last quarter, we shared that we had strategically invested in inventory as we look to improve our in-stock position in Q and support the strength in our big ticket sales. We effectively controlled our inventory as we reduced our average inventory growth per store by more than 50% sequentially from the second quarter.

Our inventory levels and in-stock rates are in excellent shape as we enter the fourth quarter. With strong annualized cash flows, we continue to maintain a healthy balance sheet with a leverage ratio of around 2x. Our announced acquisition of fits perfectly with our tuck-in M&A strategy and is highly complementary to our business. Given that we have significant financial flexibility, this acquisition will be financed by our balance sheet.

Year-to-date, we have returned more than $760 million of capital to our shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. Looking ahead, we are updating our fiscal 2024 guidance to raise the lower end of the range on both the top line and earnings. We now anticipate net sales to be in the range of $14.85 billion to $15 billion. we expect comparable store sales to be between flat to up 1%. We are forecasting an operating margin rate of 9.8% to 10.1%. Our net income is expected to be between $1.09 billion to $1.12 billion, and we anticipate diluted earnings per share of $10.10 to $10.40 compared to our prior guidance of $10 to $10.40.

As I see it today, our outlook for the remainder of the year is appropriately described as right down the middle of the fairway. At this time, we believe that our EPS will more likely be at the midpoint of the range, allowing for a breadth of possibilities that remains quite varied for Q4.

As Hal mentioned, the fourth quarter is off to a solid start with the most significant sales weeks of the quarter still ahead of us. We continue to see the quarter having a wider range of potential outcomes on comp sales, given the easier compares while acknowledging that we could see more volatility in consumer spending.

On the high end of our outlook range, in addition to the easing compares, factors we considered include a more normalized start to winter, lapping net deflation, which began in the fourth quarter of 2023 and the emergency response activity from the recent hurricanes. On the low end of the range, dynamics we contemplated include moderation in big ticket trends, potential consumer uncertainty due to the federal election and a shorter holiday selling season with 5 less selling days between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

Our outlook on gross margin, SG&A and operating margin remained consistent with past commentary. In the fourth quarter, we'll be lapping our most difficult gross margin comparison with 129 basis points of expansion in the prior year, where we began to see the benefits from lower transportation costs and our product cost management initiative.

As to SG&A, we anticipate better performance than in the third quarter given our comp sales outlook. We continue to forecast the return of capital to our shareholders in the range of $1 billion reflecting the strength of our cash flow and the confidence we have in the long term.

In conclusion, we are confident in our ability to deliver on our financial outlook for the year. At Tractor Supply, our philosophy is to stay on offense and remain proactive. We're enthusiastic about the progress of our Life Out Here strategy, maintaining our industry leadership and expanding our legacy of generating long-term value for our shareholders.

Now I will turn the call back over to Hal to wrap up.

[Harry Lawton, executive]

Thank you, Kurt. I continue to believe that the structural backdrop remains very attractive for Tractor Supply. We participate in a large, attractive, fragmented and growing market. We're a consistent share gainer and have numerous tailwinds, including our Life Out Here strategic initiatives, our market being a beneficiary of continued net rural migration and high-return new store growth opportunities.

Short term and long term, Tractor Supply is extremely well positioned as the leader in Life Out Here. As we look to close the always important fourth quarter, we have exciting plans in place to drive sales. We're in the midst of launching our first Hometown Heroes days, veterans and first responders over-index in our communities, and Tractor Supply is uniquely positioned to celebrate those who keep us safe and make Life Out Here possible.

The event starts on Saturday with a chain-wide event with our stores hosting their community to interact with fire trucks, K9 units and ambulances as well as food trucks and local farmer markets. Over the 2 weeks, we will be offering special promotions to our hometown heroes, including temper sun off on First Responders Day and Veterans Day. Hometown Heroes day is the perfect way to drive excitement for this program and for Neighbor's Club more broadly. This is a unique event, which will further support and strengthen this important customer segments shopping affinity with Tractor Supply and is a great way for us to get back to them.

We have an exceptional lineup of innovative and new products as well as enticing values and fresh offerings for the fourth quarter. In big ticket, highlights include Masimo golf carts, Liberty Safes taxi cam cameras, even Ember patio heaters and Blackstone Grills. In our Q business, we're expanding our cat-food assortment, testing new items such as freeze-dried Sacks, adding exclusive SKUs in Nutrena Triumph equine feed and launching exclusive brand extensions such as 4Health shreds.

In tools, we're offering notable deals across our tool shop event on brands such as DEWALT and Porter Cable and introduced new tailgating truck boxes just in time for the outdoor season. Our garden centers will be transformed to a winter wonderland with live Christmas trees poinsettias Rees and tractorized seasonal decor. And while the holiday merchandising is fun and brings great retail theater to our stores, what is most important in the fourth quarter to driving our business is the weather.

And so to this year, as always, we'll be offering our customers all the things they need to weather the winter including log splitters, snow throwers, chain and more. And if and when the winter comes, our customers know they can count on us for these critical supplies to get through the winter as well as products like propane and alternative heating sources.

With strong inventory levels, we're committed to being the dependable supplier for life out here. Our stores are well stocked with the key products our customers depend on for their home and maintenance needs in the winter months. I hope you get a chance to get in our stores this season to see firsthand the great merchandising initiatives we have in place.

As I mentioned earlier, please mark the calendar for our investment community today to be held on the afternoon of Thursday, December 5, the team is excited to share our growth strategy for the back half of the decade. We're confident in our ability to navigate the challenges and seize the significant opportunities we see ahead. And with that, let's open the call for questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Zach Fadem with Wells Fargo.

[Zachary Fadem, analyst]

So now that about 25% of your stores have lawn and garden centers and roughly half of your stores are converted to Fusion. Curious if that historical mid-single-digit lift for the combination is still holding in this environment, which, if it is, it would mean about 150 basis points to the comp, if that's right.

And then how should we think about the outlook for lawn and garden fusion and any other store initiatives that you have planned for '25?

[Harry Lawton, executive]

Zach, it's Hal Lawton, and good morning, and thanks for joining us on the call. Yes, great milestone for us that we've reached with over 1,000 stores now in our Fusion format and 500 stores in our garden center format over 500 stores. You think back to where we were in August of -- I mean, October of 2020 when we had 0 of each.

So come a long way in a short amount of time. As we look forward, we feel good both about the pace that we're doing on our remodel program, which is between 175 and 225 stores a year. We've been consistently running at that pace the last couple of years. Of course, all new stores are built with the Fusion concept.

And then between half and 3/4 of the stores just depending on a variety of factors are receiving the garden center, a bit more on the new stores because we have a little more control of the setup. But the same on existing store remodels as well. And then yes, we are continuing to be very pleased with the performance of Fusion -- those stores do continue to outpace the broader chain.

Additionally, they continue to have higher customer scores on key areas of things like store environment, clean and uncluttered those sorts of things. They also tend to have a higher female as well as younger shopper base as well. So all the both quant and qual metrics that we've shared historically on fusion continue to occur. And we continue to be very pleased with the Garden Center business. While it's been a couple of years now of tougher spring, summer weather, we continue to have strong performance in live goods as we talked about as well as all the other ancillary products that go around it.

And then this year, we'll be using, as I talked about in our prepared remarks, the Fusion set up even to bring even a heightened and more well done fall execution as well as winter wonderland execution. So all in all, a very good progress. And just to wrap it up, in my prepared remarks, I talked about the farm and ranch channel being negative in the kind of low to kind of mid-single digits, call it, a minus 2%, minus 3%, maybe minus 4%.

And you look at our overall growth of 1.6% and would point to many of our competitive advantages and strategic initiatives that we've been investing in is the reasons for that share gain. And one of the important ones is Fusion as we just went through the numbers. So I think Fusion is doing well. It's a major contributor to our share gain, and we're excited to continue the initiatives we turn into the back half of the decade.

[Operator]

Our next question is from the line of Chris Horvers with JPMorgan.

[Christopher Horvers, analyst]

So I just wanted to talk about the weather and the storms. So can you talk about what the storms have done for your business so far and sort of what's embedded into the balance of the quarter. It seems like you're targeting about a roughly 2% comp in the fourth quarter.

And then on the -- just on the margin front, you start to lap the transportation cost tailwinds, as you talked about. Does the emergency response create some headwinds in gross margin that we should think about in the fourth quarter? And does that DC headwind go away in SG&A?

[Kurt Barton, executive]

Chris, it's Kurt. In regards to -- I would take notes on what I think there's about 3 points in there. There is the question on the storms. There's a question in regards to the margin on DC headwinds and -- or DC benefit and when does that turn in the emerging response.

So let me just try to hit those things. In regards to the weather, I'll just mention Q3 first, as I had mentioned some of that in prepared remarks. Leading up until about mid-September, just as an example, the business was running at a slight positive comp sales trend -- and in the back 2 weeks, while we did see benefit like in emergency response from generators and others at the front end of Hurricane Helene because that's 1 of those storms that really straddles both quarters.

It was offset or more than offset by -- in that particular storm across most of the south and southeast just blanketed with storms. And so the that dampened a bit of the overall traffic in the last week or of September. As I mentioned, I see that more as a positive because that just defers some of the demand on the business. So both Helen and Milton have had net for the full year and Q4, a benefit to us.

We'll have -- we have so many of the important weeks ahead of us. I won't quantify exactly what we expect from these storms. But generally, hurricanes have a modest level of benefit on each hurricane, and we anticipate that for Q4. Emergency Response has a mixture of product. Some of the bigger ticket generators lower, but has a mix of higher margins. So we do not anticipate the storms emergency response really having a impact on margin in the fourth quarter.

And yes, the distribution center been a headwind to SG&A in 2024 does start to cycle out as you get about 9 to 12 months out, it really takes about that much time to be able to even out the inventory and be able to have the other distribution centers have a productivity offset to it. So we'll share more information on 2025 in regards to that in our January call.

[Operator]

The next question is from the line of Chuck Grom with Gordon Haskett Research Advisors.

[Charles Grom, analyst]

In the past on your third quarter calls, you've provided some early framework for the out year in terms of store count, margin puts and takes, et cetera. Is there anything we should be mindful of as we build out our models for next year?

And then along those lines, you have a long-term comp of 4% to 5%. I'm sure you don't want to underline getting to that next year, but can we think about the puts and takes over the next 12 to 18 months on the comp front?

[Harry Lawton, executive]

Chuck, I think on the -- 2 things I'd say as it relates to looking out into next year and beyond. One, I think we've got a very clear recipe of how we're operating our business right now in terms of this year, we increased from 70 new stores to 80 new stores, and we've talked about how we're moving to 90 new stores next year. And -- that is the recipe that we're planning on.

We have an exciting portfolio of high return new store opportunities out there. We've been challenged by many of our investors to go capture that value sooner. And we're kind of moving in that direction. We talked earlier about our consistent remodel approach somewhere between 175 and 220 stores a year. If you think about that, it kind of -- the average of that at 200 with 2,300 stores roughly right now. That means about every 10 years, we're remodeling a store, which is, I think, a nice healthy run rate for a retailer.

And other than that, there's no real outliers on how we're thinking about the business as we turn into next year as it relates to our long-term comp algorithm point to the same commentary we had on the last call, which is we look to return to that as quickly as possible. And the 2 major factors impacting our doing so is inflation, deflation and consumer spending nominally between services and goods.

If you look at deflation, inflation, Kurt had some comments on that earlier. We start to lap some of that around now, and we'll continue to lap that over the next 6 to 9 months and then start to really be through that cycle. And if we all look at the low price for corn was really middle of this year. And we would -- but we also had the big dip down that we took last year starting in October.

And then on goods and services, the consumer continues to have to shift a number of -- a good bit of their spend into services right now. If you look at whether it's rent, insurance costs, those sorts of things. I mean services continues to outpace the spend on goods somewhere in the range of 6 to 7 points versus, say, 1 to 2 points on goods.

And you can see that kind of correspondingly into retail sales. And as I talked about in the call, we think retail sales were slightly positive in the 1-ish, 1.5% range for Q3, our fiscal Q3, and our sales were right in line, if not slightly above that at the 1.6% range. So that's kind of how we see the macro environment shaping up right now and what we see as we turn the corner to 2025.

[Operator]

The next question is from the line of Karen Short with Melius Research.

[Karen Short, analyst]

Great to talk to you again, and I look forward to seeing you in December. So my question is looking at -- when you look at the range of outcomes on sales and gross profit dollars and gross margins, it's pretty wide. So wondering if you could address that. And then also looking to -- so and commenting on more specifically puts and takes on 4Q on gross margins and SG&A. But then wanted to address more specifically the longer-term algo and when you think you can return to that. And I assume you'll address that at the Analyst Day, but any preliminary comments would be great.

[Harry Lawton, executive]

Yes. Karen, on the long-term Algo, maybe hit that 1 first. Very much, as I've said just a moment ago, look forward to getting back to our long-term algo. We don't see any internal issues in terms of returning to our long-term algo. Our market continues to be incredibly favorable in terms of just the overall optics of our market, the strength of our markets, attracting the server markets, our position and competitive differentiation in the market is as strong as it's ever been.

We think the combination of those 2 absolutely in normal operating kind of circumstances lead to our long-term algo -- we're very confident in our ability to return to that long-term algo. And the 2 main things that we're watching in the context of returning to that are, as I mentioned earlier, the goods to services split on overall consumer expenditures. And then two, how inflation, deflation plays out and then that plays into our average ticket.

As we talked about in the past, our recipe is really a 50% growth based on average ticket. 50% growth based on comp transactions. The goods to services shift is much more about a transaction type headwind and then the inflation, deflation, obviously, being an average ticket headwind we do see the pressure or the headwinds on both of those dissipitating into 2025.

I think the question is to what degree and over what period of time to '25. And we will share more of that a little bit of that in our Investor Day. And then certainly, you'll hear our perspective on that in our Q4 earnings call. As it relates to the range of outcomes and sales in Q4, I'll address that and then Kurt can speak to some of the gross margin ins and outs.

But on the range of sales, I'd start with, in the month of October has played out much like what we expected with the 1 addition being the hurricanes that Kurt talked about previously. Those will provide a modest benefit to Q4. As Curt shared in the past, we've seen maybe 20, 30 basis points of benefit for a hurricane of those sizes. And I think something to that effect is what's in our guidance in Q4.

The other major things that are going to play into Q4. One is going to be weather and it needs to get cold for our business to really perform well in Q4. We sold a lot of heating pellets. We sold a lot of heating fire places. We saw a lot of insulated outerwear and a lot of other products in our business that are cold weather related. We've had about a week, 1.5 weeks of cold weather this quarter so far.

When that hit, it was very good. It's now probably -- if everybody can think about where they're sitting right now, it's very warm right now. And so by consequence, people are buying heating and insulated outerwear. So we've had a bit of a mix in October, and that's typically what you can expect in October.

As you look forward into the last 2 months, it really comes down to the continuation of cold weather. Do we get in do we get it in December. Last year, we got cold weather in neither month. The second comes down to holiday shopping. We've got 5 less days this year. Historically, customers have been able to compress for the most part. But the question will be just how does the calendar play out this year? And does that occur?

Also with Christmas being on a Wednesday, you've got a unique setup where online is able to play much more strongly. And on that final super weekend than it has in the past. And then, of course, you've got the federal election. And we do expect that consumer spending leading up to the federal election will be dampened both just with distraction as well as a little bit of just wait and see mode.

And so then you've got to see how does that pick back up. But at the end of the day, as I said on my prepared remarks, while the holiday sales are important to our business, the maker break for our business is the -- is how we support our customers with what their needs are, particularly during the cooler weather season. So that's what most will be most indicative of our sales in Q4. And I'll turn it over to Kurt for some comments on margin.

[Kurt Barton, executive]

Yes. Karen, here's how we look at the gross margin and the SG&A in the fourth quarter. And I'd start by saying the all year, the business has been remarkably consistent. And so I'll refer to Q4 versus some of the highlights of Q3. We had 56 basis points of benefit in Q3 as it was really the last quarter before we start to lap the significant benefit we started to see last year and fourth quarter on both transportation and our cost savings -- our cost-cutting initiatives -- and so we'll have only a modest level of benefit remaining on transportation and cost in fourth quarter that will, for the most part, likely be offset by product mix. So gross margin is relatively, give or take, a bit more flattish year-over-year in Q4.

And then on the SG&A side, the A lot of the puts and takes are similar other than in Q3, we were cycling 35 basis points benefit of a onetime depreciation. In Q4, we'll still have roughly 20, 25 basis points of pressure on the new distribution center. We anticipate a little bit more leverage on the comp sales as we anticipate positive comp sales for the fourth quarter.

So you really see yourself moving in that -- in about 50, 60, 65 basis points of pressure from SG&A in the fourth quarter as it's -- it does not have as much of the onetime as, say, Q3 does. So net that does put operating margin in an unfavorable decline from year-over-year, but that's always been in our expectations for fourth quarter as we were lapping the strongest performance year-over-year.

[Karen Short, analyst]

Hopefully, you just bring women's wranglers to your stores.

[Operator]

The next question is from the line of Michael Lasser with UBS.

[Michael Lasser, analyst]

My question is how 1 of the key debates is can Tractor Supply get back to the historic levels of 1% to 2% growth in traffic. It seems like what you're suggesting is the ability to get back to that level of traffic growth on a consistent basis is going to be macro dependent where it will be influenced by the shift from services to good.

Yet Tractor being a more needs-based retailer that has more consistent trends in areas like consumables Q have held up relatively well. So what specifically do you see as influencing the assortment or category performance that will improve in a more robust economic environment more robust retail environment to drive that traffic growth and as you see a little bit less gross margin expansion because of some of the drivers from this year stayed would you be willing to sacrifice some gross margin in order to drive the traffic growth?

[Harry Lawton, executive]

Michael, thanks for the question. First of all, if I -- maybe I'll just step back. If I look at our growth over the last 5 years, post-COVID, which I think is the second highest in all of retail -- major retailers out there. The key to that has been strength in both average ticket and comp transactions. So it's not -- comp transaction growth has not only been a highlight of Tractor Supply for the last 30 years, 20 years, but also in the last 5.

And I would say, of most retailers out there, we're 1 of the few that have been -- that have strong positive like double-digit positive comp transaction growth over a multi 5-year year period. So I'd put our transaction growth over the last 5 years up against anyone. Second of all, I think if you look at retail right now, overall transaction growth in retail is either flat to negative in general right now, and so when you look at our modestly positive comp transactions, you combine that with overall transactions given our new store growth -- at our comp transactions, I would argue we're in the top quartile right now of retail in terms of overall transactions.

So I look at I'm very pleased with how we've grown our transaction on the last 5 years, how we've held those transactions and even in the context of this environment that we're in, how were modestly positive comping transactions and then with our new stores having strong couple of points of transaction growth.

And then as I look forward, I think it really does all come down to the goods to services shift and then our customers having a little bit more money to spend on items in our stores. And that's going to make its way into that extra half of transaction a year to them, and it's also going to make its way a little bit into the units per transaction.

But I think what we're seeing on our comp transactions being muted a bit is very comparable to what's happening in all the rest of retail and I certainly believe as retail moderates back to its normal levels, rising tides will lift all boats. And those of us that continue to have positive comp transactions. We'll continue to see stronger positive comp transactions as that occurs. And just I'll leave it at that.

[Operator]

The next question is from the line of Steven Forbes with Guggenheim Partners. .

[Unknown Analyst]

This is on for Steve. Curious if you could expand on how the 37 million Neighbor's Club members informed the decision to acquire -- I guess, how many Neighbor's Clubs we use an online solution for the pet pharmacy needs? And any other color you can help contextualize the opportunity there would be great.

[Harry Lawton, executive]

Yes, thanks. We are really excited about the acquisition of I think it's a great example of kind of a tuck-in acquisition. They've been a partner to us for a few years now as our pet Rx provider. What we've observed over those few years has been best-in-class in terms of both their nationwide prescription licensing capabilities, their distribution centers and their ability to get products shipped out in 24 hours, their ability to get prescriptions approved and partner with the veterinarians, their excellent website, their strong management team and importantly, also excellent financial condition.

So we feel all around. It's a great business, 1 that we're excited and thrilled to welcome into the Tractor Supply family -- and we look forward to bringing that feature of a low-cost affordable wide array of prescriptions for pets and animals to our customers.

As you said, we have 37 million-plus members of our Neighbor's Club program. It's a highly engaged membership program, 1 that we continue to add value in and our customers continue to further and further become loyal around. And we think the combination of live with our Neighbor's Club is going to just be a great mix, and we look forward to over the next few years getting the deal done approved, closed and then starting to bring that to our Neighbor's Club members in the ways that we've brought the additional features and benefits that we have to them. Very excited about it and more to come at our investment community day on that topic on December 5.

[Unknown Analyst]

Great. And just a quick follow-up. Kurt, 2 years of flattish comps. Has there been any change to the building blocks behind that to 16% long-term EBIT margin guidance, realizing productivity plays a role. But are there any margin factors there that are maybe structurally higher today than where you originally framed it?

[Kurt Barton, executive]

No. Really, there's not anything significant in our algorithm to a 10.1 to 16.6 and recognizing that we're going to continue to invest for the long term. The last 2 years, the comp sales puts pressure on our ability to leverage the SG&A, and it's really been difference.

The team has just done a phenomenal job, though, finding ways to offset that. And there are a number of cases on productivity in both our stores and our logistics distribution team that have just done a phenomenal job finding new opportunities for productivity. So the team has done well to be able to maintain that 10-plus operating margin in the last couple of years.

So the algorithm is still intact. And Hal mentioned all the different reasons of our expectations of being able to get back to the long-term algo. And that just gives a better opportunity to avoid the pressures of SG&A. So I feel very confident with the long-term algo still at this point.

[Operator]

The next question is from the line of Peter Benedict with Baird.

[Peter Benedict, analyst]

Maybe 1 for Seth. Just around the big-ticket strength, certainly continues to be unique relative to most of retail. You talked about some innovation, I think some sharp pricing on these items. I'm just curious if you could expand on it. Any other factors helping here? I don't know if the use of private credit has been playing a role.

And how do you guys think about like replacement cycles for some of those bigger ticket categories? Is that potentially starting to kick in here. I'm just kind of curious if you expand on that a little bit.

[Seth Estep, executive]

Yes. Peter, thanks for the question. Just overall a big ticket, as we mentioned, we definitely are very pleased with the performance there as Q3 really was much in line with the strength of the performance as we exited Q2 and we really were able to maintain that.

The third quarter, it was our third consecutive quarter of big ticket growth. And as you mentioned in some of the categories that we've had, whether it be like 0 returns, front engine riders, rec vehicles and a couple of other categories. I would point to a couple of things that have really differentiated us a little bit from the market, I believe.

I would start with just the product lineup itself. I think the merchants have done a fantastic job of line structure in these categories where we are offering quality, high-value products across multiple brands, bringing innovation. We're working on differentiation with exclusive features, and they're really built and tailored to our customer, right, and their customer needs with kind of the large animal or the large acre ownership across a lot of our customers.

The next thing I would say is just some of the strategic inventory investments that Kurt mentioned earlier as well. When we exited Q2, we made sure we saw some of the strength here and we're looking at the weather patterns, and we placed inventory in these categories to make sure that we could continue to maintain that as we went after it.

And then the last thing I would just say is private label credit card. Our credit card momentum has been very strong. With that, our supplier base are partnering with us to continue to drive that. And when you just kind of combine those things together, whether it be the lineup itself, the value quality proposition, designing programs specific to the lifestyle of our customer. And then coupling that with things like our offerings, both with private label credit cards and leveraging our Neighbor's Club. It's really a combination of all those together that's really playing on it.

Teams built in 2025 right now. I think you'll see they'll continue to expand on those things and really excited about the lineup as we move into next year.

[Operator]

The next question is from the line of Peter keith with Piper Sandler.

[Peter Keith, analyst]

Congrats on the continued market share gains. I want to ask about technology. So how you'd referenced some greater data integrity and personalization with Neighbor's Club. I was wondering how you're leveraging technology and AI to provide those solutions. And anything that we might think about going into next year that could perhaps provide some type of sales benefit?

[Harry Lawton, executive]

Peter, thanks for the question. I'd say we are infusing machine learning, data science, AI, really across the business. both in our own analytics frameworks, also in leveraging our software providers' capabilities whether that's in things like Reflexis on inventory management or whether that's with our new CDP in terms of customer insights and personalization.

And then I'm really proud that we're also building solutions internally to drive, as I've shared earlier, kind of better customer service in our stores. And whether that's through things like tractor vision, where we're upgrading our camera software and hardware technologies to be able to leverage our cameras to drive improved customer service through a variety of use cases, whether that's at the register on the apron and in our Garden Centers or whether that's through our tool that we have, that all of our team members are able to use to ask to get further knowledge inside of our stores when they're dealing with customers or when they just want to educate themselves.

But we have a broad variety of things that we're using, all really to drive improved customer service productivity with our team. Also in our distribution centers, we're doing that. We're using vision technology to be able to look at the packing of trucks, to look at left off of trucks to watch and to use it to manage the yard. So whether it's operationally in our DCs, whether it's for customer service in our stores or whether it's in our merchants or marketing use it for behind the scenes analytics and personalization. We're leveraging data science and machine learning and AI across the board.

[Mary Pilkington, executive]

Operator, we'll have time for 1 more question. .

[Operator]

Our final question comes from the line of Scott Ciccarelli with Truist.

[Scot Ciccarelli, analyst]

First, a quick clarification, I think it might have been on Chuck's question. Are you expecting this year's same SKU deflation to flip to same-SKU inflation in '25. And then kind of related to that, are you able to quantify to any degree the pressure on your business from the decline in farm income that we've seen because of commodity deflation?

[Kurt Barton, executive]

Scott, this is Kurt. On deflation, for the first 9 months of the year, it's generally ran in line with our plan and expectations. We have seen a bit of additional step down modest on some of the commodities.

I expect Q4 to have a similar but slightly less deflationary impact in Q3, but it really looks like today, if you're trying to peg when is there a point neutrality that that's been punted out anywhere from 3 to 6 months. And we will have a much better view in January on what the expectation is on 2025 all indication is as we are shifting out of a deflationary environment towards an inflationary one. The timing of when that conversion flips we first thought it would be late 2024, early 2025. That could be Q1, Q2 of next year. And then in regards to your second question, remind me again, that point.

[Scot Ciccarelli, analyst]

Just farm income broadly has been under pressure because of commodity deflation. And I'm just trying to figure out, have you guys maybe will quantify the impact on your biz.

[Kurt Barton, executive]

Yes. For years, we've looked at the farm income level in strong years in soft years. And it can have either an indirect slight halo or overhang on there, and we really don't see much of a correlation to that.

And as you know, I'll just point out our majority of our customers are not professional farmers. It's not their #1 source of income. And the -- if anything, we look sometimes at the overall market area and if there's an indirect benefit to that market area and how the nonfarmers may spend. At this point, we're not really seeing anything that points to that in our business today.

[Mary Pilkington, executive]

All right. Well, that will give us to the top of the hour and wrap up our Q&A for today. As always, we're available for any follow-up calls. Please be on the lookout for the invitation to our Investment Community Day in December that Hal referenced earlier. And please reach out if you need any further information. We look forward to the event, and thank you for your interest in Tractor Supply. .

[Operator]

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.