Trustmark Corp
NASDAQ:TRMK
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Trustmark Corp
Earnings Call Analysis
Q3-2023 Analysis
Trustmark Corp
In the third quarter, Trustmark Corporation sustained its growth trajectory, experiencing increases in both loans and deposits, as well as showcasing a stable net interest income and robust credit quality, despite recognizing a substantial litigation settlement expense of $6.5 million. Excluding this one-time expense, Trustmark achieved a net income of $34 million, translating to diluted earnings per share of $0.56. On an adjusted basis, the net income would total $38.9 million, or $0.64 per diluted share. Over the first nine months of 2023, the net income surged to $129.4 million, up 22.7% from the prior year, marking diluted earnings of $2.11 per share.
Trustmark's loans held for investment increased by $196.3 million, or 1.6%, over the linked quarter, and $1.2 billion, or 10.6%, year-over-year. Similarly, the deposits experienced growth of $188 million, or 1.3%, in the linked quarter, and $676.7 million, or 4.7%, on a year-over-year basis. The organization's ability to grow these core areas reflects its robust financial health and suggests a favorable market position compared to competitors.
The net interest income stood firm at $141.9 million for the quarter, culminating in a net interest margin of 3.29%. There was, however, a minor 4 basis point dip linked quarter and a 2.5% linked quarter decrease in noninterest income, which amounted to $52.2 million. These figures underscore Trustmark's consistent revenue generation from its core banking activities, despite market fluctuations.
Noninterest expenses for the quarter totaled $140.9 million, which includes the one-time litigation cost. Net charge-offs were modest at $3.6 million, accounting for merely 11 basis points of average loans. With a provision for credit losses of $8.3 million and an allowance for credit losses that stood at 1.05% of total loans, Trustmark manifests strong fiscal prudence and risk management that remain critical for investor confidence.
Looking ahead, Trustmark predicts sustained loan growth through 2023, targeting mid-single-digit increases, supported by a well-diversified loan portfolio. The credit quality is expected to remain robust, with a well-structured commercial real estate sector and a commercial loan portfolio that spans across multiple industries without overconcentration in any single sector. The allowance for credit losses aligns well with the nonaccrual loans, which demonstrates a strong buffer against potential bad debts.
The deposit base broadened to $15.1 billion, indicating both linked quarter and year-over-year increases. Emphasizing a strategy focused on insured and low-risk deposits, Trustmark bolstered its deposit base while ensuring 65% of the deposits were insured and only a limited exposure to uninsured deposits, thus attesting to a cautious approach towards risk exposure.
Trustmark forecasts an elevated deposit cost to 2.12% for the fourth quarter, implying a conservative reaction to what is perceived to be a stabilizing interest rate environment with the Federal Reserve's rates expected to hold steady. This forecast fits within the trajectory of gradual normalization of rates post-stimulus, and reflects prudent financial planning in anticipation of market changes.
In a tangible display of its commitment to shareholder value, Trustmark's Board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.23 per share, which is scheduled for payment in mid-December. This is indicative of the company's solid financial position and its confidence in sustaining profitability.
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Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Trustmark Corporation's third quarter earnings conference call. [Operator Instructions]As a reminder, this call is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce Mr. Joey Rein, Director of Corporate Strategy at Trustmark.
Good morning. I'd like to remind everyone that a copy of our third quarter earnings release as well as the slide presentation that will be discussed on our call this morning is available on the Investor Relations section of our website at trustmark.com.During the course of our call, management may make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. We would like to caution you that these forward-looking statements may differ materially from the actual results due to a number of risks and uncertainties, which are outlined in our earnings release as well as our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.At this time, I'd like to introduce Duane Dewey, President and CEO of Trustmark.
Thank you, Joey, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. With me this morning are Tom Owens, our Chief Financial Officer; Barry Harvey, our Chief Credit and Operations Officer; and Tom Chambers, our Chief Accounting Officer.Trustmark had a solid third quarter with continued loan and deposit growth, stable net interest income, strong performance in our insurance business and solid credit quality. As previously disclosed, Trustmark recognized a litigation settlement expense of $6.5 million in the third quarter.With this charge, Trustmark reported a third quarter net income of $34 million, representing diluted earnings per share of $0.56. Including this litigation -- excluding this litigation settlement expense, Trustmark's third quarter net income totaled $38.9 million or $0.64 per diluted share.During the first 9 months of 2023, Trustmark's net income totaled $129.4 million, which represented diluted earnings of $2.11 per share, an increase of 22.7% from the same period in 2022. We continued to focus on cost-saving initiatives to improve efficiency as well as technology to enhance our ability to grow and serve customers. We believe Trustmark is well positioned to respond to changing economic conditions and create long-term value for our shareholders.Let's take a look at our financial highlights in a little more detail by turning to Slide 3. Loans held for investment increased $196.3 million or 1.6% linked quarter and $1.2 billion or 10.6% year-over-year. Deposits during the quarter grew $188 million or 1.3% linked quarter and $676.7 million or 4.7% year-over-year. Net interest income totaled $141.9 million, resulting in a net interest margin of 3.29%, down 4 basis points linked quarter.Noninterest income decreased 2.5% linked quarter to $52.2 million, representing 27.4% of total revenue in the third quarter. Noninterest expense in the third quarter totaled $140.9 million. Excluding the litigation settlement expense of $6.5 million, noninterest expense was $134.4 million, up $2.2 million or 1.7% linked quarter. Net charge-offs during the quarter totaled $3.6 million and represented 11 basis points of average loans. The provision for credit losses for loans held for investment was $8.3 million in the third quarter.Credit quality remained solid during the quarter as the allowance for credit losses represented 1.05% of total loans held for investment and 273.6% of nonaccrual loans, excluding individually evaluated loans at September 30. We continue to maintain strong capital levels with common equity Tier 1 of 9.89% and a total risk-based capital ratio of 12.11%. The Board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.23 per share payable on December 15 to shareholders of record as of December 1.At this time, I'd like to ask Barry Harvey to provide some color on loan growth and credit quality.
I'll be glad to, Duane. And thank you.Turning to Slide 4. Loans held for investments totaled $12.8 billion as of September 30. That's an increase, as Duane mentioned, of $194 million for the quarter. Loan growth during Q3 came from CRE, equipment finance and our mortgage line of business. We do expect continued solid loan growth throughout the remainder of 2023, resulting in mid-single-digit loan growth for the year. Our loan portfolio, as you can see, is well diversified, both by product type as well as by geography.Looking at Slide 5. Trustmark's CRE portfolio is 94% vertical with 68% in the existing category and 32% in construction land development. Our construction land development portfolio is 80% construction. Trustmark's office portfolio, as you can see, is very modest at $288 million outstanding, which represents only 2% of our overall loan book. The portfolio is comprised of credits with high-quality tenants, low lease turnover, strong occupancy levels and low leverage. The credit metrics on this portfolio remain extremely strong.Looking at Slide 6. The bank's commercial loan portfolio is well diversified, as you can see, across numerous industries with no single category exceeding 13%.Looking to Slide 7. Our provision for credit losses for loans held for investment was $8.3 million during the quarter, which was attributable to reserving for, one, individually evaluated credit, a weakening macroeconomic forecast, funding of our -- funding provision for the loan growth that we achieved during the quarter and net adjustments to our qualitative factors. The provision for credit losses for off-balance sheet credit exposure was $104,000 for the third quarter. On September 30, the allowance for loan losses for loans held for investment were $134 million.Looking to Slide 8. We continue to post solid credit quality metrics. The allowance for credit losses represents 1.05% of loans held for investment and 274% of nonaccruals, excluding those loans that are individually analyzed. In the third quarter, net charge-offs totaled $3.6 million or 0.11% of average loans. Both nonaccruals and nonperforming assets remain at reasonable levels. Duane?
Okay. Thank you, Barry. I'd like to ask Tom Owens now to focus on deposits and income statement.
Thanks, Duane, and good morning, everyone.Turning to deposits on Slide 9. We had another good quarter with our deposit base continuing to show its strength amid an environment that remains exceptionally competitive. As Duane said, deposits totaled $15.1 billion in September 30, which was a linked quarter increase of $188 million or 1.3% and a year-over-year increase of $677 million or 4.7%.The linked quarter increase was driven by strong fundamentals with growth in personal balances of $288 million, nonpersonal balances of $148 million and brokered balances of $125 million. That growth was offset somewhat by a decline in public fund balances of $373 million due to seasonal and other factors. Regarding mix, time deposits continued to increase linked quarter with promotional CDs of $344 million and brokered CDs of $113 million.As of September 30, our promotional time deposit book totaled $1.23 billion with a weighted average rate paid of 4.65% and a weighted average remaining term of about 6 months. Our broker deposit book totaled $728 million with an all-in weighted average rate paid of about 5.42% and a weighted average remaining term of about 5 months as of September 30.Also regarding mix, the rate of decline in noninterest-bearing DDA slowed meaningfully during the third quarter, down linked quarter by $141 million or 4.1%. Noninterest-bearing DDA represented 22% of the deposit base as of September 30. Our cost of interest-bearing deposits increased by 43 basis points from the prior quarter to 2.39%.Turning to Slide 10. Trustmark continues to maintain a stable, granular and low exposure deposit base. During the quarter, we had an average of about 464,000 personal and nonpersonal deposit accounts, excluding collateralized public fund accounts, with an average balance per account of about $26,000. Average accounts for the quarter increased by about 3,000 or an annualized rate of about 3%.As of September 30, 65% of our deposits were insured and 12% were collateralized, meaning that our mix of deposits that are uninsured and uncollateralized was essentially unchanged linked quarter at 22%. We maintained substantial secured borrowing capacity, which stood at $5.7 billion at September 30, representing 170% coverage of uninsured and uncollateralized deposits.Our third quarter total deposit cost of 1.84% represented a linked quarter increase of 36 basis points and a cumulative beta cycle to date of 33%. Forecast for the fourth quarter is for an increase in deposit cost to 2.12%, which would represent a cycle-to-date beta of 39%. Forecast reflects market implied forward interest rates with the Fed remaining on hold for the remainder of the year with the top of the target range for the Fed funds rate at 5.5%.Turning our attention to revenue on Slide 11. As Duane said, net interest income FTE decreased by $1.4 million linked quarter, totaling $141.9 million, which resulted in a net interest margin of 3.29%. Net interest margin decreased by 4 basis points linked quarter as changes in asset rate and volume substantially offset changes in liability rate and volume.Turning to Slide 12. Our interest rate risk profile remained essentially unchanged as of September 30 with substantial asset sensitivity driven by loan portfolio mix with 49% variable coupons. During the third quarter, the weighted average maturity of the cash flow hedge portfolio shortened slightly to 2.9 years, and the weighted average received fixed rate increased to 3.16%. $125 million notional of forward starting swaps, which brought the portfolio notional at quarter-end to $975 million. The cash flow hedging program substantially reduces our adverse asset sensitivity to a potential downward shock in interest rates.Turning to Slide 13. Noninterest income for the third quarter totaled $52.2 million, a $1.3 million linked quarter decrease and a $382,000 decrease year-over-year. The linked quarter decrease was driven primarily by a decrease in bank card and other fees of $700,000 and by a decrease of -- in other net of $1.3 million, which was essentially normalization from an elevated level in the second quarter that was driven by nonrecurring income recognition.Those linked quarter decreases were offset somewhat by increases in service charges on deposit accounts of $379,000 and insurance commissions of $539,000. For the quarter, noninterest income represented 27.4% of total revenue, continuing to demonstrate a well-diversified revenue stream.Now looking at Slide 14. Mortgage banking revenue totaled $6.5 million in the third quarter, a $142,000 decrease linked quarter driven by a $493,000 increase in amortization of the mortgage servicing asset, which was substantially offset by a $152,000 increase in servicing income and a $338,000 reduction in negative net hedge ineffectiveness. Year-over-year, mortgage banking declined by $418,000 driven primarily by reduced gain on sale.Mortgage loan production totaled $390 million in the third quarter, a decrease of 9.6% linked quarter and a decrease of 23.3% year-over-year. Retail production mix remained strong in the third quarter, representing 76% of volume or about $295 million. Loans sold in the secondary market represented 81% of production, while loans held on balance sheet represented 19%. Gain on sale margin decreased by 3 basis points linked quarter to 1.21%.And now I'll ask Tom Chambers to cover noninterest expense and capital management.
Thank you, Tom. Turning to Slide 15, you'll see a detail of our total noninterest expense. Adjusted noninterest expense was $134 million during the third quarter, a linked quarter increase of $2.4 million or 1.9%, mainly driven by an increase in salary and employee benefits of $726,000 as a result of higher salary expense. Other expense increased by $1.4 million, resulting from an increase of FDIC assessment expense of $1.2 million. In addition, services and fees decreased $382,000 due to lower professional and consulting fees during the quarter.As noted on Slide 16, Trustmark remains well positioned from a capital perspective. As Duane previously mentioned, our capital ratios remain solid with a common equity Tier 1 ratio of 9.89% and a total risk-based capital ratio of 12.11%.Trustmark did not repurchase any of its common shares during the second quarter -- during the third quarter, although we have a $50 million authority for the remainder of 2023 under our Board authorized stock repurchase program. We are unlikely to engage in stock repurchase in a meaningful way. Our priority for capital deployment continues to be organic lending.Back to you, Duane.
Well, thank you, Tom. Turning to Slide 17, let's look at our outlook. First, let's look at the balance sheet. We're expecting loans and deposits to continue to grow mid-single digits for the year. Securities balances are expected to decline in high single digits for the year as cash flow runoff of the portfolio is not reinvested, which, of course, is subject to the impact of changes in market interest rates.Moving on to the income statement. We're expecting net interest income to grow high single digits full year '23, which is driven by earning asset growth and reflects a full year net interest margin in the high 3.20s based on the current market implied forward interest rates. The total provision for credit losses, including unfunded commitments is dependent upon future loan growth, the current macroeconomic forecast and the credit quality trends. Net charge-offs requiring additional reserving are expected to be nominal based on the current economic outlook.From a noninterest income perspective, insurance revenue is expected to increase high single digits full year with wealth management expected to increase low single digits. We're expecting service charges and bank card fees to increase low single digits, which is offset somewhat by lower customer derivative fees. Mortgage banking revenue is expected to decline low single digits for the year.Adjusted noninterest expense is expected to increase mid-single digits for the year. This reflects general inflationary pressures, added talent throughout our system as well, but is also subject to the impact of commissions in the various lines of business.We remain intently focused on our FIT2GROW initiatives as discussed throughout 2022 and 2023. Our Atlanta-based Equipment Finance division continues to gain traction as its portfolio has grown to $191 million as of 9/30. We have implemented numerous technology advancements, which will continue into '24 and '25, all of which are designed to improve efficiencies.Moving into Q4, we're intently focused on cost-saving initiatives that will reduce the rate of expense growth in coming quarters. In addition, work continued on the design of our sales through service process, which will be implemented across the retail branch network in '24. We believe these actions will enhance Trustmark's performance and build long-term value for our shareholders.Finally, we will continue a disciplined approach to capital deployment with a preference for organic loan growth and potential M&A. We will continue to maintain a strong capital base and implement corporate priorities and initiatives.With that, at this time, I'd like to open the floor up to questions.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Graham Dick with Piper Sandler.
So I just wanted to start quickly on the margin and specifically the loan yields. They saw some really nice expansion this quarter. Just wanted to get a sense for the repricing dynamics in that portfolio as we look forward? And then also if you think that maybe a similar level of improvement would be possible in 4Q and maybe even as we look into 1Q '23?
Graham, this is Barry on the credit side. I'll start there, and then maybe others who want to contribute. But our weighted average yield for the book is 6.2%. And for the quarter what we put on the books was 7.9%. So we are still seeing a nice increase in the -- of the new bookings versus the makeup of the book itself. And that's predominantly because a lot of our new opportunities are CRE-related slower production than we saw in '21, clearly, much slower production we saw in '23 -- excuse me, in '22.But having said that, we definitely are seeing some good fee income on those particular opportunities as well as spreads to 1-month SOFR. So for that reason, I think we continue to see a nice yield in our new production relative to the overall book.
Okay. That's helpful. And then I guess just on the deposit side. I know it's only a minor difference, but you guys did outperform your deposit cost guidance a little bit this quarter. Can you just talk through what you're seeing on the funding cost side as you start to look ahead into 2024? And when you -- if you have an idea of when you think that might peak out and the lag will be fully into the deposit cost picture?
Graham, this is Tom Owens. So yes, we did come in just slightly favorable to our guidance for the third quarter. And as a result, we slightly lowered our guidance on deposit costs for the fourth quarter. Internally, we're continuing to model, as we've discussed on prior calls, which is ultimately to a cumulative deposit beta mid-2024 in the mid-40s. So I think what you will see is decline in linked quarter increase in deposit costs over the next several quarters, right? So the pace of increase will continue to decline. And I would not expect that you'll get to flattish deposit costs until second half next year.We've got the Fed -- we're using market implied forwards. So the Fed's on hold through, I believe, July of next year, which is about the same time we've got that cycle to beta topping out and where we have deposit costs topping up.
Graham, this is Duane Dewey. Let me just add real quickly to that just to compliment Tom and the treasury team as well as our retail banking team here at Trustmark. I think as the year has gone on, we have become more focused and targeted in some of our campaigning on the deposit side and really honed in on where we have opportunity, where we have opportunity to price better, et cetera.So I think we -- in addition to the market pressures that we're facing, I also think the organization has advanced in its targeted marketing campaigns across the system, which has helped the -- which has helped manage the cost.
Yes, definitely. And then I guess -- so you're taking those 2 pieces together and then looking at the margin this quarter, which was -- held in pretty well. Are you thinking that the asset repricing from here can maybe just at least offset deposit cost increases until we see that flatter, I guess, deposit cost trajectory in the back half of 2024?
I think so -- Graham, this is Tom Owens again. I think you'll continue to see some linked quarter compression in net interest margin for the next couple of quarters. And then as you get into, call it -- mid '24 second and third quarter is where you're likely to see that stabilize and even out.
Okay. Great. And then, lastly, if I could just get one more in. Yesterday, we saw another banking competitor, a peer of yours announce the sale of its insurance business and they're planning to use the capital to pay down some borrowings and restructure part of the bond portfolio. How do you guys view this transaction? Would you ever consider anything like it? Because if I look at the multiple on that business, it looks like yours all insurance business would be implied about $300 million in value based on the revenue multiple that was used yesterday.
Graham, Duane -- this is Duane. We're well aware, obviously, of what's happening in the bank-owned insurance space. I guess, across -- there's been a couple of deals announced. To that end, however, we like the business. We've been in the business 25 years. It's been a steady, stable, consistent grower, especially over the last 10 to 12 years. It's a very high return on tangible common equity business. We have a great team, a great management structure there, et cetera. So we very much like -- we like the diversification also that the insurance revenue brings.Tom noted the 27-plus percent of noninterest income. We like that net balance as well. Now all that said, we're aware of what's going on around us. We know valuations and understand what impact that's having on others from a financial perspective. So we continue to monitor and evaluate. But at this point in time, we really like the insurance business.
Our next question comes from Kevin Fitzsimmons with D.A. Davidson.
Shifting gears to credit. We saw roughly a $20 million increase, I believe, in NPAs. I know we're kind of coming off a very low point here. And I saw you mentioned reserving for this newly evaluated nonaccrual loan. It looked like nonaccruals went up in the state of Alabama and Mississippi. So maybe just any color you can provide on how many loans, what kind of business they're in? And if there's any concern that there'll be others coming?
Kevin, this is Barry. I guess, starting with one aspect of that question. Really, during the quarter, there was 2 credits that drove our increase in nonaccruals. And one of them was CRE and one of them was C&I. Both of them were substandard accruing as of 6/30. And then we -- during the quarter -- the third quarter, we decided to move them to nonaccrual and specifically evaluate them to determine if a reserve was required or not. I don't see that as anything systemic. At this point, I think it's just normal course of business.When you mentioned Mississippi and Alabama, one of the -- the C&I loan was -- that I've mentioned was originated out of Alabama. The customer is not in Alabama, but it was originated out of Alabama. And that's the way it's shown on our distribution. And then within the -- within Mississippi, the increase that you saw there was driven by our mortgage company.We had some -- we had -- we continue, like everybody does, I think to see some increase in nonaccruals coming out of our mortgage book, which is -- so that's -- hopefully, that gives you a little bit of color on that aspect of it. But we continue to monitor our portfolios very, very carefully.We're looking at a lot of the credits on a quarterly basis. We're looking at them specifically from a CRE perspective. We're looking -- we're taking the pro forma and then we're looking at today's interest rates and determining what the debt service coverage looks like, what the debt yield looks like and evaluating them based upon today's interest rate environment regardless of what the environment was at the time of underwriting.So we continue to assess it. And then as we need to adjust grades, we're doing so in a very timely manner, well before we end up with a breach or maturity.
That's helpful, Barry. While we're on the subject of credit, 2 kind of side questions. The -- a number of your large Southeast bank peers were involved in a bankrupt syndicated credit. Can you remind us what kind of exposure you have to SNCs? And then equipment finance, I know you guys are just kind of in the infancy stage there of that business and it's ramping up. But with the economy slowing in the mid-higher rates, is there any concern about that book? I know, Duane, when we've talked about this before, you really emphasized how you're really being careful and methodical in building that business. So I would assume you feel okay credit-wise there.
Sure. And Kevin, I'll start with the SNC question and we'll move to Equipment Finance. For our shared national credits, our percent of the total book is going to be -- for outstanding is just going to be 8.6%. And I think there's a few things to comment beyond that, is we don't have any concentrations from an industry standpoint based upon the regulatory definition of concentrations.I would also like to mention kind of how we -- why we kind of monitor SNCs within Trustmark. The credit quality for shared national credits given what they are is going to be near and oftentimes investment grade. So high-quality companies as a general statement. I mean, obviously, with high-quality companies, you typically have less collateral as a general rule because of the quality of the earnings, the strength of the earnings, the size of the earnings, the predictability of the earnings. All those things lead you to a credit process that the credit criteria and structure reflects the strength of the borrower that you're lending to.We typically are careful with taking a modest hold as we approach shared national credits. The credit itself was extremely strong, but they are -- we're always going to be buying into these credits. We don't lead any shared national credits. So as we buy into them, they're take or leave. So really the only way to protect yourself from our perspective is to be modest with the size of the opportunity we pursue and put on our books. We've also established limits as it relates to shared national credits or a concentration limit, if you would.We've had that in place for many, many years. We display that to our enterprise risk committee of the Board, who looks at everything credit from a Board perspective. We share that with them on a quarterly basis. And so we do, in fact -- we are conscious of shared national credits maybe for a different reason than you're asking the question for.We just want -- we know that it's purchase business and has limited opportunity for future ancillary business. So we're focused on making sure that we're doing as much direct business as we can and getting as much of a wallet share from a customer as possible. So we're focused on those credits to make sure that we're not doing those in lieu of the direct business that we want to be doing every day.So shifting over to the equipment finance side, I mean, we've got an extremely experienced, talented team that -- they understand clearly that we're looking to be down the middle of the fairway on all the deals we're looking at. The credit structure or the credit quality is first and foremost. The pricing is important to us, but it's always secondary to the borrower.We understand in the new line of business we don't want to stumble, we don't want to have problems. So that is our focus and will continue to be our focus for the foreseeable future. And I do -- I can't overemphasize the experience level, the knowledge of the people we have in that line of business, including the credit resources that we were able to obtain that have been in that line of business for many, many years with some really large institutions.So from that standpoint, I'm very comfortable as we evaluate credits, which we alluded this morning, for opportunities that we're looking at a good solid credit risk down the fairway in terms of deal quality and making sure that's our focus. And price is secondary. But we do want to make sure we get a reasonable yield given the credit quality being presented.
One just final note on the equipment finance, Kevin, is it's mid to large ticket. So it is -- we're not focused on small ticket or small business type stuff. It's really mid to large. And most of the credit in that portfolio is close to what Barry described from a SNC perspective, very top line credit quality. So yes, we feel pretty good about where we are at this point in that business.
Okay. Great. And I'm going to sneak one last one in here. Duane, I just want to point out -- not to be -- just that -- your comment about liking the insurance business. I recall Cadence CEO saying that same thing on last quarter's call. But putting that aside, like, say, there's no transaction there, would you look at doing on its own securities restructuring transaction just to accelerate some of that redeployment or reinvestment on the securities portfolio?
Yes. I'll start quickly and let Tom address the securities portfolio. But again -- I mean, we've been in the business 25 years. I can't comment much on what Cadence thought process is. But staying abreast, staying aware of what's going on and looking at what's best for Trustmark's shareholders moving forward, that's what we're focused on. And it's been a great business for us and continue to monitor the situation. But at this point in time, that's where we stand. So I'll let Tom address the securities question.
So Kevin, this is Tom Owens. So I would probably echo Duane's comments in terms of being aware and monitoring what our competitors and what our peers are doing. Certainly, we're aware of the restructuring, the investment portfolio restructuring activity that's been going on. So we're aware of it. We look at it. We are not at this point seriously contemplating doing that, I guess is the way I would say it.
[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Bill Jones with KBW.
This is Will. So I just wanted to start out on the margin. I know and I understand that we may take a step down here in the next quarter. And I really appreciate the guidance of a little bit of further compression until we moderate into the middle half of next year. But just taking that into account -- and I appreciate the fact that you still plan to grow earning assets. Do you feel like you can grow NII again in 2024? Or does it really feel like more of a leveling out in NII and maybe just trying to protect the margin?
So certainly -- well, this is Tom. So certainly, earning asset growth will drive an increase year-over-year in net interest income. But that -- but the headwind from compression in net interest margin, we're not going to be able to overcome, no. I mean, I think when you look at the dynamic in the industry, right, I mean, that's -- the challenge for the industry heading into '24 is the compression that we've experienced and that we're facing in terms of net interest margin. Mathematically, you can't get there. You're going to be off year-over-year in a meaningful way in terms of net interest income.If I heard your question correctly, I hope I answered it. And if not, please follow up.
No, that was helpful. But it feels like it would be a challenge to maybe see that high single-digit growth again in 2024. Not trying to hash 2024 guidance out now or anything, but I guess that was really more the precedent -- the question. If we keep saying more margin compression, I understand you'll still be growing the earning asset base as well. But no, that was helpful.But I guess just to lead into it, assuming maybe the revenue environment stays somewhat more challenged next year, do you have offsets maybe on the expense side with the understanding that you guys are fairly active with your FIT2GROW initiative? How do you feel your -- or what is the outlook for where you feel expenses could go in the next year or so?
I don't know if I can give you a full year. I can tell you directionally, we are very intensely focused on expenses. We -- as noted in the FIT2GROW initiatives, we've invested in technology. We've invested somewhat in talent and people like Equipment Finance in Atlanta office, et cetera. So we've done some things that we think over time really enhance shareholder value that have -- and there's been some other factors in there, some of the legal resolution that we completed here this quarter, et cetera, that we think there are definite opportunities for cost savings moving into 2024. And you could -- one-off things, like we changed disaster recovery sites. That's $1 million savings. We've renegotiated some big vendor contracts that are additional savings and the like.So those things combined with some third-party spends. And then we have some employee initiatives that we're working on as we speak today that we also think will help. That combined with some of the efficiencies of technology that have been implemented. We're definitely moving into 2024.I feel the cost savings side is a big opportunity for us and we are in position to take advantage of that. And we'll likely at our fourth quarter call give a real thorough guidance on where we think we'll be for the year 2024.
Okay. That's great. That's helpful. And Tom, I just wanted to clarify. Did you mention earlier that you expect total deposit cost next quarter in the 2.12% range and a 39% total beta? I just wanted to clarify.
That's correct, Will.
Okay. Great.
I did [ mention ] that.
Okay. Thanks for pointing that out. And lastly, I know you guys mentioned buybacks that are fairly unlikely in near term. Although just -- with where the stock trades at today and capital remaining in a healthy manner, just curious what the thought process is on maybe not taking a more serious consideration or look at it. It just feels like it could be an opportunity for you guys right now.
Yes. Will, as we've said consistently in the past -- I mean, our highest priority in terms of capital deployment is supporting lending growth. And as we've demonstrated, we've continued to have opportunities in that area. And so I think that will be the case. I mean I think we've given pretty strong guidance in the last couple of earnings calls that in all likelihood we would not be engaging in repurchase activity for the remainder of '23. And I think that's still the case.
This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Duane Dewey for any closing remarks.
Thank you again for joining us for today's third quarter call. We look forward to catching up at the end of the fourth quarter in January. And I appreciate your interest in Trustmark. Have a great week.
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may all now disconnect.