T-Mobile US Inc
NASDAQ:TMUS
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one TMUS stock under the Base Case scenario is 209.32 USD. Compared to the current market price of 239 USD, T-Mobile US Inc is Overvalued by 12%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
T-Mobile US Inc
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Fundamental Analysis
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T-Mobile US Inc. has transformed the telecommunications landscape in the United States with its disruptive business model and commitment to customer satisfaction. Launched in 2001 and a key player in the mobile industry, T-Mobile has made a name for itself by prioritizing customer experience and offering innovative pricing models that challenge traditional carriers. The company's unmistakable "Un-carrier" strategy, which eliminates long-term contracts and hidden fees, has won over millions of subscribers, catapulting it to become one of the leading wireless service providers in the country. As of mid-2023, T-Mobile boasts over 110 million customers and continues to invest heavily in expandin...
T-Mobile US Inc. has transformed the telecommunications landscape in the United States with its disruptive business model and commitment to customer satisfaction. Launched in 2001 and a key player in the mobile industry, T-Mobile has made a name for itself by prioritizing customer experience and offering innovative pricing models that challenge traditional carriers. The company's unmistakable "Un-carrier" strategy, which eliminates long-term contracts and hidden fees, has won over millions of subscribers, catapulting it to become one of the leading wireless service providers in the country. As of mid-2023, T-Mobile boasts over 110 million customers and continues to invest heavily in expanding its 5G network, aiming to provide superior coverage and speed across urban and rural areas alike.
At the heart of T-Mobile's growth is its strategic merger with Sprint in 2020, which not only enhanced its market share but also expanded its spectrum portfolio, enabling even more robust service capabilities. This merger solidified T-Mobile's position as a formidable competitor against bigger players like Verizon and AT&T. For investors, T-Mobile presents a compelling opportunity; its strong financial performance, evidenced by consistent revenue growth and increased profitability margins, underscores its resilience in a competitive market. By focusing on innovation, customer engagement, and continued infrastructure expansion, T-Mobile US Inc. is poised to capitalize on the burgeoning demand for wireless connectivity, making it an attractive option for those looking to tap into the future of communication technology.
T-Mobile US Inc. operates primarily in the wireless telecommunications sector and has several core business segments that contribute to its overall operations and revenue. Here are the key segments:
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Postpaid Wireless Services:
- This segment includes monthly service plans provided to customers who commit to a contract. It typically involves higher revenue per user due to the stable, long-term relationships with customers. Postpaid subscribers often receive enhanced services and devices.
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Prepaid Wireless Services:
- T-Mobile also offers prepaid wireless plans, which allow customers to pay for service in advance without committing to a contract. This segment caters to various customer needs, including budget-conscious users or those who prefer flexibility without long-term commitments.
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Wholesale Services:
- This segment involves providing network access to other telecommunications carriers and resellers. T-Mobile partners with various companies to sell services under their brands, leveraging its network infrastructure to generate additional revenue.
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Mobile Voice and Data Services:
- T-Mobile delivers mobile voice, text messaging, and data services to its customer base. This includes 4G LTE and 5G offerings, which are critical for meeting consumer demand for data-intensive applications and services.
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Value-Added Services:
- The company offers various add-on services that enhance its core mobile services, including insurance for devices, family plans, and additional features like international calling options and mobile hotspot services.
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Home Internet Services:
- T-Mobile has been expanding into the home internet market, offering broadband services via its 5G network. This segment is designed to compete with traditional ISPs, focusing on providing fast internet access in residential areas.
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Business Services:
- T-Mobile provides wireless services tailored for small businesses to large enterprises. This includes mobile plans, device management, and IoT solutions, allowing companies to leverage T-Mobile’s network for their operational needs.
These segments collectively support T-Mobile's strategy to diversify its revenue streams while focusing on customer-centric innovations and expanding its market reach. The company’s emphasis on enhancing customer experience and leveraging advanced technologies has positioned it as one of the leading players in the US telecom market.
T-Mobile US Inc boasts several unique competitive advantages that differentiate it from its rivals in the telecommunications industry:
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Un-carrier Strategy: T-Mobile’s "Un-carrier" initiative has redefined how customers perceive telecom services. By eliminating long-term contracts, offering unlimited data plans, and providing transparent pricing, T-Mobile has actively disrupted traditional telecom practices, making it more appealing to consumers who seek flexibility and clarity.
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Network Expansion and 5G Leadership: T-Mobile has invested heavily in expanding its nationwide network, particularly with its 5G capabilities. With its extensive spectrum holdings—particularly in mid-band spectrum—T-Mobile is positioned to provide superior coverage and faster speeds compared to many competitors.
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Strong Customer Service Focus: T-Mobile has gained a reputation for superior customer service, which is a significant differentiator in the industry. Their commitment to customer satisfaction has translated into higher customer retention and loyalty.
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Aggressive Marketing and Promotions: The company regularly engages in eye-catching marketing campaigns and offers competitive promotions that entice new customers and retain existing ones. This has helped T-Mobile to consistently attract new subscribers.
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Diverse Product Offerings: T-Mobile has diversified its service offerings beyond traditional mobile services, including home internet and partnerships in entertainment and streaming services. This broadens their revenue streams and enhances customer value.
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Value Proposition: T-Mobile focuses on providing value, often being one of the first to offer unlimited data plans without depriving customers of network speed. Their plans are typically competitively priced while still offering robust services.
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Cultural Shift and Innovation: T-Mobile fosters a culture of innovation and agility, which allows it to rapidly adapt to changing market dynamics and consumer demands, staying ahead of its competitors in terms of service offerings and technological advancements.
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Strong Financial Position and Resources: With solid financial backing, T-Mobile can invest in growth, marketing, and technological advancements, allowing them to outspend competitors on network improvements and customer acquisition strategies.
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Brand Reputation and Awareness: T-Mobile has cultivated a strong brand identity that resonates with younger audiences and tech-savvy consumers. Their branding strategies often embody a fun and accessible company culture compared to the more traditional images of competitors.
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Mergers and Acquisitions: The acquisition of Sprint significantly bolstered T-Mobile’s customer base and spectrum assets, providing additional resources to enhance their service offerings and infrastructure.
These advantages combine to create a strong competitive position for T-Mobile in the highly competitive U.S. telecommunications market.
T-Mobile US Inc faces several risks and challenges in the near future, including:
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Intense Competition: The telecommunications industry is highly competitive, with major players like Verizon and AT&T, as well as disruptive entrants like Dish Network. These competitors may engage in aggressive pricing strategies, feature enhancements, and marketing campaigns that could erode T-Mobile's market share.
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Network Infrastructure Challenges: As T-Mobile continues to expand its 5G network, the company faces challenges related to the deployment of infrastructure, including securing permits, managing costs, and ensuring service reliability. Any delays or issues in network optimization could impact customer satisfaction.
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Regulatory Risks: The telecommunications sector is heavily regulated. T-Mobile must navigate a complex landscape of federal, state, and local regulations. Changes in government policy, antitrust scrutiny, or regulatory requirements could impact operations and profitability.
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Customer Retention and Churn Rates: Maintaining customer loyalty in a competitive market is crucial. If T-Mobile fails to meet customer expectations regarding service quality or pricing, it may experience higher churn rates, leading to lost revenue.
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Supply Chain Disruptions: The global supply chain has been affected by numerous factors, including the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and shortages of essential components (e.g., semiconductors). Disruptions may hinder T-Mobile's ability to acquire necessary equipment for network expansion.
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Technological Obsolescence: Rapid technological advancements require continuous investments in infrastructure and technology. T-Mobile must keep pace with innovation to avoid becoming obsolete in terms of service offerings and customer experience.
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Cybersecurity Threats: As a technology-driven company, T-Mobile is susceptible to cybersecurity threats, including data breaches and hacking attempts. Protecting customer data and maintaining trust are critical, and any breach could lead to significant regulatory fines and reputational damage.
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Debt Management: T-Mobile, especially after the merger with Sprint, has a significant amount of debt. Rising interest rates or declining revenues could impact its ability to service this debt, potentially leading to financial strain.
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Market Saturation: In the U.S., the market for mobile services is approaching saturation. This limits the ability for companies to gain new customers without aggressive marketing and pricing strategies, which can affect profit margins.
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Economic Conditions: Macroeconomic factors, such as inflation, recession, or changes in consumer spending habits, can impact disposable income and thereby influence customer willingness to spend on mobile services.
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Merger Integration Challenges: Following the acquisition of Sprint, T-Mobile must successfully integrate operations, cultures, and technologies. Missteps in integration could hinder performance and affect customer service.
To mitigate these risks, T-Mobile will likely continue to focus on innovation, customer service, strategic partnerships, and efficient operations.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
T-Mobile US Inc
Balance Sheet Decomposition
T-Mobile US Inc
Current Assets | 22.5B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 9.8B |
Receivables | 8.5B |
Other Current Assets | 4.3B |
Non-Current Assets | 188.2B |
PP&E | 66.8B |
Intangibles | 114.5B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 6.9B |
Current Liabilities | 21B |
Accounts Payable | 3.1B |
Accrued Liabilities | 7.8B |
Short-Term Debt | 5.9B |
Other Current Liabilities | 4.3B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 125.5B |
Long-Term Debt | 78.9B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 46.6B |
Earnings Waterfall
T-Mobile US Inc
Revenue
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80B
USD
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Cost of Revenue
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-28.9B
USD
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Gross Profit
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51.1B
USD
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Operating Expenses
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-33.8B
USD
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Operating Income
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17.3B
USD
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Other Expenses
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-6.9B
USD
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Net Income
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10.4B
USD
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Free Cash Flow Analysis
T-Mobile US Inc
USD | |
Free Cash Flow | USD |
T-Mobile reported its best third quarter for postpaid phone net additions in a decade, leading to a revision of 2024 expectations. The company now anticipates total postpaid customer net additions between 5.6 million and 5.8 million, up 150,000 from previous guidance, and postpaid phone customer additions around 3 million. Year-over-year postpaid ARPA is expected to rise by approximately 3%, with a core adjusted EBITDA forecast between $31.6 billion and $31.8 billion. This growth comes as T-Mobile bolsters its 5G leadership and customer experience, outpacing rivals in service revenue growth, posting a remarkable 9% increase in adjusted EBITDA.
What is Earnings Call?
TMUS Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
T-Mobile US Inc's profitability score is 55/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
T-Mobile US Inc's profitability score is 55/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
TMUS Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
T-Mobile US Inc's solvency score is 35/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
T-Mobile US Inc's solvency score is 35/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
TMUS Price Targets Summary
T-Mobile US Inc
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TMUS is 222.87 USD with a low forecast of 144.92 USD and a high forecast of 273 USD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for TMUS is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
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Description
T-Mobile US, Inc. engages in the provision of wireless communications services under the T-Mobile and MetroPCS brands. The company is headquartered in Bellevue, Washington and currently employs 75,000 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2007-04-19. The firm provides mobile communications services primarily using its fourth generation (4G) long term evolution network and its fifth generation (5G) technology network. The company also offers a selection of wireless devices, including handsets, tablets and other mobile communication devices, and accessories for sale, as well as financing through equipment installment plans and leasing through JUMP! On Demand. The Company’s primary service plan offers signature Magenta plan, which includes, among other benefits, unlimited talk, text and smartphone data on its network, 5G access at no extra cost. Customers can also choose additional features, such as unlimited premium data with its Ultra Capacity 5G service, for an additional cost on its Magenta Max plan.
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The intrinsic value of one TMUS stock under the Base Case scenario is 209.32 USD.
Compared to the current market price of 239 USD, T-Mobile US Inc is Overvalued by 12%.