Sirius XM Holdings Inc
NASDAQ:SIRI
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one SIRI stock under the Base Case scenario is 54.68 USD. Compared to the current market price of 27.03 USD, Sirius XM Holdings Inc is Undervalued by 51%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
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Sirius XM Holdings Inc
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Fundamental Analysis
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Sirius XM Holdings Inc. is a pioneering audio entertainment company that has redefined how listeners engage with music, sports, talk shows, and news. Founded in 1990, it emerged as a leader in satellite radio, revolutionizing the way people access audio content in vehicles and beyond. As a portfolio of more than 150 channels, Sirius XM offers a rich variety of programming that appeals to diverse audiences, from exclusive artist-created stations to live broadcasts of major sports events. The company has also expanded its reach by incorporating internet radio and podcasting, enabling listeners to enjoy seamless audio experiences on-the-go. With a robust subscriber base approaching 33 million,...
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. is a pioneering audio entertainment company that has redefined how listeners engage with music, sports, talk shows, and news. Founded in 1990, it emerged as a leader in satellite radio, revolutionizing the way people access audio content in vehicles and beyond. As a portfolio of more than 150 channels, Sirius XM offers a rich variety of programming that appeals to diverse audiences, from exclusive artist-created stations to live broadcasts of major sports events. The company has also expanded its reach by incorporating internet radio and podcasting, enabling listeners to enjoy seamless audio experiences on-the-go. With a robust subscriber base approaching 33 million, Sirius XM has established itself as a dominant player in the audio entertainment landscape.
From an investment perspective, Sirius XM presents a compelling opportunity due to its recurring revenue model primarily driven by subscriptions. With a consistent track record of financial performance and a strong focus on customer retention, the company aims to enhance profitability through strategic partnerships and innovative content offerings. Additionally, Sirius XM is keen on exploring new growth avenues, including potential acquisitions and enhancements in technology, such as personalized audio experiences powered by AI. As consumer habits shift towards on-demand content, Sirius XM's established brand, extensive library, and ongoing commitment to innovative programming position it favorably for sustainable long-term growth, making it an intriguing option for investors looking to tap into the evolving media landscape.
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. operates primarily in the satellite and streaming radio industries, and its core business segments can be summarized as follows:
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Subscription Services: This is the primary revenue driver for Sirius XM. The company offers a variety of subscription plans that give users access to a wide range of radio channels, including music, talk shows, news, sports, and other content. There are different tiers of service, including both commercial-free music and talk, as well as premium channels that may require higher subscription fees.
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Advertising Revenue: Sirius XM generates additional income through advertising on its free-to-listen channels. This includes channels like Pandora, which the company acquired in 2019. The advertising segment has become increasingly important as it allows Sirius XM to monetize content without solely relying on subscription fees.
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Content and Programming: Sirius XM provides a variety of exclusive content and programming, which includes partnerships with popular personalities and production of original content. Specialized programming, such as sports broadcasting, comedy shows, and exclusive series, attracts listeners and helps retain subscriber engagement.
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Connected Vehicle Services: Sirius XM offers services for connected vehicles, providing drivers with infotainment options, satellite radio, and more through partnerships with automotive manufacturers. This segment is significant given the increasing integration of technology in vehicles and the demand for in-car entertainment.
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Pandora and Digital Streaming: Following the acquisition of Pandora, Sirius XM has a strong presence in digital audio streaming. This segment includes subscription services and ad-supported streaming, catering to users who prefer on-demand access to music and other audio content rather than traditional radio.
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Sirius XM for Business: This segment focuses on providing satellite radio and programming for commercial establishments, such as restaurants, retail shops, and other businesses. This service allows businesses to create a unique atmosphere by offering a curated listening experience to their customers.
By diversifying across these segments, Sirius XM Holdings Inc. aims to enhance customer experience, increase subscriber numbers, and drive revenue growth while adapting to changing consumer habits in audio consumption.
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. has several unique competitive advantages that set it apart from its rivals in the audio entertainment industry:
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Exclusive Content: Sirius XM offers exclusive content, including a wide range of channels that feature popular artists, sports, and talk shows. The presence of high-profile personalities and exclusive partnerships, such as those with major sports leagues (NFL, NBA, MLB, etc.) and famous personalities (Howard Stern, Oprah Winfrey), gives Sirius XM a distinct edge.
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Established Brand and Market Position: As one of the pioneers in satellite radio, Sirius XM has built a strong brand presence and customer loyalty in the audio entertainment sector. Its established market position makes it challenging for new entrants to gain significant traction.
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Comprehensive Coverage: The satellite-based model allows Sirius XM to provide continuous service across the United States and parts of Canada, including in remote areas where traditional radio may not reach. This nationwide coverage is a significant advantage.
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Diverse Revenue Streams: Sirius XM diversifies its revenue through multiple channels, including subscription fees, advertising revenues, and partnerships with car manufacturers to provide bundled services. This revenue model makes it less reliant on a single source of income.
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Strategic Partnerships: Sirius XM has formed strategic partnerships with automakers to have its services integrated into new vehicles, often as part of a complimentary subscription for a limited time. This provides a direct pipeline to new customers and ensures strong market penetration.
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Technology and Innovation: Sirius XM has invested in technology, improving its streaming services and personalized content delivery. Adding streaming capabilities enhances its value proposition, making it competitive with digital music services like Spotify and Apple Music.
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Strong Subscriber Base: The company boasts a large and loyal subscriber base, offering significant economies of scale. The size of its customer base allows Sirius XM to leverage data and analytics for better content targeting and advertising strategies.
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Cost Management: With a business model that relies primarily on subscription fees, Sirius XM can manage costs effectively while continuing to invest in content and technology, ensuring a robust user experience.
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Subscriber Growth through Bundles: Sirius XM has experienced growth not just in individual subscriptions but also through bundled offerings with other services, enhancing its value proposition to consumers.
By leveraging these competitive advantages, Sirius XM holds a strong position in the audio entertainment market, differentiating itself effectively from competitors.
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. faces a variety of risks and challenges in the near future, including:
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Increased Competition: The audio entertainment landscape is becoming increasingly crowded, with growing competition from streaming services like Spotify, Apple Music, and various podcast platforms. This can lead to potential subscriber loss or stagnation.
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Subscriber Growth Saturation: Sirius XM has a mature subscriber base, and while it has experienced growth, there may be limited room to expand further, particularly in the North American market. Retaining existing subscribers may become more challenging.
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Changing Consumer Preferences: As consumers shift towards on-demand content and personalized playlists, there may be a decline in demand for traditional radio and satellite services, which could impact Sirius XM's value proposition.
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Technological Disruptions: Rapid changes in technology and consumer electronics could affect Sirius XM's delivery of services. For example, advancements in smart home devices or automotive technology could disrupt current business models.
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Economic Factors: Economic downturns can affect discretionary spending, leading to potential declines in subscription renewals and new subscriber sign-ups, particularly in non-essential entertainment.
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Content Costs: Sirius XM invests significantly in content, including exclusive shows, music libraries, and partnerships. Rising costs for content acquisition and talent could impact profitability.
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Regulatory Challenges: Changes in regulations concerning telecommunications and broadcasting could affect Sirius XM's operations. New rules could impose additional costs or limit business practices.
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Dependence on Automotive Partnerships: A significant portion of Sirius XM's subscribers comes from automotive manufacturers as part of bundled subscription offers. Any decline in new car sales or changes in these partnerships could negatively impact subscriber numbers.
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Retention Strategies: The company needs to continually innovate its service offerings to maintain subscriber interest and combat churn. This requires effective marketing and retention strategies.
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Global Expansion Risks: While exploring international markets offers growth opportunities, it also introduces risks related to cultural differences, market acceptance, and higher operational complexities.
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Potential for Service Interruptions: Reliance on satellite and streaming infrastructure poses risks of outages or service interruptions that could affect subscriber satisfaction.
In summary, Sirius XM will need to navigate these risks carefully while continuing to innovate and adapt to maintain its competitive edge and ensure long-term growth.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Sirius XM Holdings Inc
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Sirius XM Holdings Inc
Current Assets | 1.1B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 127m |
Receivables | 668m |
Other Current Assets | 338m |
Non-Current Assets | 26.4B |
Long-Term Investments | 1.1B |
PP&E | 2B |
Intangibles | 22.6B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 658m |
Current Liabilities | 3.1B |
Accounts Payable | 1.2B |
Accrued Liabilities | 77m |
Other Current Liabilities | 1.8B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 13.6B |
Long-Term Debt | 10.1B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 3.4B |
Earnings Waterfall
Sirius XM Holdings Inc
Revenue
|
11B
USD
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Cost of Revenue
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-5.2B
USD
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Gross Profit
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5.8B
USD
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Operating Expenses
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-3.4B
USD
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Operating Income
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2.4B
USD
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Other Expenses
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-4.1B
USD
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Net Income
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-1.7B
USD
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Free Cash Flow Analysis
Sirius XM Holdings Inc
USD | |
Free Cash Flow | USD |
SIRI Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Sirius XM Holdings Inc's profitability score is 49/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Sirius XM Holdings Inc's profitability score is 49/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
SIRI Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Sirius XM Holdings Inc's solvency score is 30/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Sirius XM Holdings Inc's solvency score is 30/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
SIRI Price Targets Summary
Sirius XM Holdings Inc
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for SIRI is 31.07 USD with a low forecast of 20.2 USD and a high forecast of 49.88 USD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for SIRI is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
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Dividend Yield
Description
Sirius XM Holdings, Inc. is an audio entertainment company, which offers music, sports, entertainment, comedy, talk, news, traffic and weather channels, as well as infotainment services. The company is headquartered in New York City, New York and currently employs 5,590 full-time employees. The firm operates through two audio entertainment segments: Sirius XM and Pandora. Its Sirius XM business features music, sports, entertainment, comedy, talk, news, traffic and weather channels and other content, as well as podcasts and infotainment services, in the United States on a subscription fee basis. Its Sirius XM service is distributed through its two satellite radio systems and streamed via applications for mobile devices, home devices and other consumer electronic equipment. Its Pandora business operates a music, comedy and podcast streaming discovery platform, offering a personalized experience for each listener wherever and whenever they want to listen, whether through mobile devices, car speakers or connected devices. Pandora is available as an ad-supported radio service, a radio subscription service (Pandora Plus) and an on-demand subscription service (Pandora Premium).
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The intrinsic value of one SIRI stock under the Base Case scenario is 54.68 USD.
Compared to the current market price of 27.03 USD, Sirius XM Holdings Inc is Undervalued by 51%.