Sunrun Inc

NASDAQ:RUN

Earnings Call Analysis

Sunrun Achieves Record Storage Growth and Updates 2024 Guidance

In Q2 2024, Sunrun exceeded storage installation guidance, reaching attachment rates of 54% and installing 265 MWh of capacity, up 152% from last year. Solar energy capacity installed was 192 MW, within guidance, but solar volumes for 2024 are now expected at the lower end. Despite this, strong order activity and high utility rates drive solid sequential growth. Sunrun reiterated Q4 cash generation guidance of $50-$125 million and increased its full-year 2025 guidance to $350-$600 million. The company's strategy focuses on high-value products and geographic markets to sustain growth and enhance returns.

Strong Performance and Strategic Focus

In the second quarter of 2024, Sunrun showcased its robust strategic execution, setting records in storage installation and attachment rates. The company surpassed its installation guidance, indicating not only operational strength but also a keen focus on customer demand for clean energy solutions. The success translated into impressive cash generation of $217 million for the quarter, reflecting the company’s operational efficiency and commitment to becoming a trusted provider of energy storage solutions.

Customer Growth and Subscriber Metrics

Ending Q2 with 984,000 customers and around 828,000 subscribers corresponds to a capacity of 7.1 gigawatts of networked solar energy—a 14% year-over-year increase. Sunrun’s annual recurring revenue (ARR) now stands at nearly $1.5 billion, marking a 27% increase compared to last year. The company's strategy to offer long-term contracts enhances cash flow predictability, with an average remaining contract life of nearly 18 years.

Subscriber Value Insights

In Q2, the subscriber value was approximately $49,600, with a creation cost of $37,200, resulting in a net subscriber value of $12,394. Despite a slight decrease in subscriber value due to average system size variances, expectations for Q3 and Q4 indicate a reversal of this trend, driven by larger system sizes. With the current discount rate at 7.5%, the net subscriber value stands at $7,075, combining strong results from battery attachments and operational efficiencies.

Tax Incentives and Future Growth Drivers

The company achieved a blended investment tax credit (ITC) approximation of 35% in Q2, with expectations set to rise to around 45% by 2025. This improvement is vital for generating additional cash flows and enhancing profitability. Sunrun anticipates that regulatory benefits and reduced hardware prices will support future net subscriber value growth, alongside better operational efficiencies and labor management from increased volumes.

Financial Strength and Cash Flow Outlook

Sunrun’s gross earning assets reached $15.7 billion, reflecting strong financial health. Cash generation, including recoveries from tax credit transitions, signals a solid balance sheet with over $1 billion in total cash—a $259 million increase quarterly. The company reaffirmed its cash generation expectations for Q4 at between $50 million and $125 million, while offering higher cash generation guidance for 2025 of $350 million to $600 million.

Market Position and Competitive Advantages

As the residential solar market evolves, Sunrun is positioned to capture share from competitors exiting the market. Continued investment in leadership and technology supports its 'storage-first' strategy, appealing to growing consumer demand for energy independence amid rising utility costs. Moreover, Sunrun’s partnerships and innovative offerings, such as vehicle-to-home capabilities, are expected to expand its market presence and develop new revenue streams.

Guidance Summary and Future Expectations

For Q3 2024, Sunrun expects to install between 275-300 megawatt hours of storage capacity, representing 64% year-over-year growth. Solar energy capacity for Q3 is projected to range between 220-230 megawatts, marking 17% growth from Q2. While the full-year forecast indicates a decline of approximately 15% in solar installations, the positive year-over-year growth starting in Q4 illustrates the company’s commitment to recovering market share with a disciplined approach.

Concluding Thoughts

Sunrun's earnings call reflects a healthy outlook, driven by solid customer growth, enhanced subscriber metrics, strategic priorities in storage solutions, and responsive financial management. With the anticipated rise in tax incentives and the ability to leverage an underpenetrated market, Sunrun demonstrates a clear path for continued growth and shareholder value advancement.

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q2

[Operator]

Good afternoon, and welcome to Sunrun's Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this call is being recorded and that 1 hour has been allocated for the call, including question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] I will now turn the call over to Patrick Jobin, Sunrun's Investor Relations Officer. Please go ahead.

[Patrick Jobin, executive]

Before we begin, please note that certain remarks we will make on this call constitute forward-looking statements. Although we believe these statements reflect our best judgment based on factors currently known to us, actual results may differ materially and adversely. Please refer to the company's filings with the SEC for a more inclusive discussion of risks and other factors that may cause our actual results to differ from projections made in any forward-looking statements.

Please also note these statements are being made as of today, and we disclaim any obligation to update or revise them. During today's call, we will also be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe can provide meaningful supplemental information for investors regarding the performance of our business and facilitated a meaningful evaluation of current period performance on a comparable basis with prior periods. These non-GAAP financial measures should be considered as a supplement to and not a substitute for superior to or an isolation from GAAP results. You will find additional disclosures regarding the non-GAAP financial measures discussed in today's call in our press release issued this afternoon and our filings with the SEC, each of which we posted on our website.

On the call today are Mary Powell, Sunrun's CEO; and Danny Abajian, Sunrun's CFO; Ed Fenster, Sunrun's Co-Founder and Co-Executive Chair; along with Paul Dickson, Sunrun's President and Chief Revenue Officer, are also on the call for the Q&A session. The presentation is available on Sunrun's Investor Relations website, along with supplemental materials. An audio replay of today's call, along with a copy of today's prepared remarks and transcripts, including Q&A will be posted to the Investor Relations website shortly after the call. We've allocated 60 minutes for today's call, including the question-and-answer session. And now let me turn the call over to Mary.

[Mary Powell, executive]

Thank you, Patrick, and thank you all for joining us today. Sunrun's strategy to become the beloved trusted provider of clean energy and storage for households across America is delivering strong results. In the second quarter, the Sunrun's team set records for storage installation and attachment rates, beating the high end of our installation guidance while delivering solid quarter-over-quarter solar installation and net subscriber value growth. We also delivered strong cash generation of $217 million in Q2, recouping the tax credit transfer related working capital investment noted in Q1.

Our primary focus is accelerating our differentiation, launching additional products and services to expand customer lifetime values and remaining the disciplined margin and customer-focused leader, growing cash generation in the business for years to come. We are on track to achieve our cash generation objectives as we exit 2024 and our increasing cash generation guidance for 2025. We are also on track to exceed the high end of our full year storage installation guidance this year as our focus on storage products pays dividends faster than we even expected.

Driven by our margin-focused strategy and slightly lower sales pacing than we initially expected, we now expect our solar volumes for 2024 to be at the lower end of our guidance range. Nevertheless, we are seeing strong sequential growth in order activity as consumer entrants continues to build over this hot summer with soaring electricity rates. We continue to focus on the most large and accretive customers. The hot summer and high utility bills are driving consumers to focus on their home energy use and related costs.

Our strategy is to focus on products and geographies where Sunrun shareholders can earn a strong return while Sunrun customers experience an excellent value proposition. Driven by these dynamics, we are increasing our storage capacity installation guidance from approximately 58% to approximately 86% growth in the year, and we are narrowing our solar installation guidance to reflect the low end of our prior range, down approximately 15% for the year.

We expect to see solid high-teens sequential growth in solar installations into Q3 and Q4 and to resume double-digit year-over-year growth in Q4. We are reiterating our cash generation guidance of $50 million to $125 million in Q4. In addition, we are initiating even higher cash generation guidance for 2025 of $350 million to $600 million. The fundamental drivers of our business continue to accelerate. Utility rates continue to rise, while storage equipment costs are declining.

Our operating efficiency and customer experience continues to improve. Customers remain eager to take control of their energy needs with affordable and resilient solutions to power their lives, the ultimate in independents. A pew study issued in June affirmed what polls have said for years: the majority of Americans, Republicans, Democrats and independents favor expanding solar power in the United States.

Over a year ago, we oriented the business to be storage-first, which increases the customer value proposition and lays the foundation for future value creation from grid services. This strategy has also allowed us to capitalize on regulatory changes faster and better than others in the industry.

In Q2, we installed storage on 54% of our new customers, up from an 18% attachment rate in the prior year and a 4-point increase from levels achieved in Q1. We installed 265-megawatt hours of storage in Q2, up 152% from a year ago and the most we have installed in any quarter. Sunrun's experience selling, installing and monetizing storage for the grid is a clear differentiator. Storage systems provide increased customer value to enhance resiliency and control, while providing higher margins for Sunrun.

Our fleet of networked storage capacity has reached 1.8-gigawatt hours with 116,000 systems installed. While still in the early stages of commercializing these valuable, dispatchable energy resources, we continue to advance programs which prove their value potential. We now have more than a dozen operating virtual power plants across the country.

Just this afternoon, we announced a program with Tesla in Texas. The program has already enrolled customers and will scale up while dispatching stored solar energy from at-home batteries to rapidly increase capacity on the grid during periods of high consumption. Customers will be compensated for their participation while retaining a portion of their stored energy to provide back-up power to their homes in the event of a power outage. Sunrun will also earn incremental recurring revenue for the program.

These same resources are providing tremendous value for our customers. During prolonged power outages in the aftermath of Hurricane Beryl, more than 1,600 Sunrun customers in the Greater Houston area were able to keep their homes energized with more than 70,000 hours of back-up energy provided by their solar and storage systems. With over 3 million homes and businesses without power, we are seeing strong demand in Texas as many are seeing the obvious value our service can provide.

Just last week, we announced the operation of the nation's first vehicle-to-home power plant using a small group of customer-owned bidirectional electric vehicles. Initiated by forward-thinking regulation and in partnership with Maryland's largest utility, Baltimore Gas and Electric, this program utilizes all-electric Ford F-150 Lightning trucks to deliver power this summer during peak demand times.

These programs build on many others we are operating, including the Demand Side Grid Support program initiated by regulators in California. This virtual power plant is being actively used to support California's power grid. Just last month, during a heat wave, over 16,000 Sunrun customers' solar-plus storage systems dispatched power during peak hours, supplying the grid with an average of 48 megawatts each night exceeding the capacity of several costly and polluting gas-fired peaker plants in California.

Home solar and battery systems are modernizing and strengthening the electric grid. With forward-thinking regulation, these resources could lower the cost of the overall grid for all users. As a reminder, California has 14,000 megawatts of power plants that are used less than 5% of the time. We are quickly becoming a multi-product company that offers a suite of clean energy products to our consumers in a bundled, easy-to-finance way. By continuing to invest heavily in service and providing a leader customer -- leading customer experience, we are able to monetize opportunities to provide additional services to our large base of customers for decades into the future. We are proud of our customer-first approach, evidenced by a continued increase in customer Net Promoter Scores at the time of installation, which this quarter reached 76 points, up over 5 points in the past year.

We have invested time and resources to develop products and learn from pilots to best inform our strategy to harness these opportunities. On Slide 7, we highlight our focus, including renewals, repowering customers with new equipment that meet increased energy demand, installing batteries for existing solar-only customers to provide energy resilience networking systems to form virtual power plants and providing electric vehicle charging or even bidirectional solutions, we are seeing strong traction.

For instance, we have over 1,000 orders by existing customers to add batteries. While we've just recently launched this, orders are growing at a rapid rate. I want to spend a minute discussing developments with a public peer who recently announced their market exit at restructuring. This presents an opportunity for Sunrun to continue our industry leadership and gain share in a financially disciplined and measured way.

We are engaged in conversations with many of their former dealers and are selectively onboarding partners that share our vision and commitment to provide advanced customer experience. We have been an established leader in the new homes business for many years and are engaging with many large national homebuilders about joining the Sunrun platform. In July, we announced the addition of 2 strong leaders and industry veterans, who most recently led the new homes business at SunPower.

We expect strategic growth in the new homes segment in the coming quarters, driven by our leading platform, expanded leadership team and a long track record of being a reliable, trusted partner for homeowners. This dislocation will provide opportunities for competitors as well, especially new entrants in the financing segment eager for volume. We continue to see irrational pricing and immature control from some of the new entrants, but have also seen some indications that as they have gained more experience, they are adjusting pricing and controls accordingly.

We continue to hear from our partners that they value Sunrun most from being a sustainable, reliable partner and that has led to strong long-term relationships. We deeply value these partners and our shared vision of success, particularly some of our longest-standing and largest partners. Before handing over to Danny, as always, I want to take a moment to celebrate some of our people who truly embrace the power of clean energy and the desire to connect customers to the cleanest energy on earth. Thank you to our leading direct-to-home sales team in Los Angeles. Thanks so much to our team members, Adler, Rich and Jon, for delivering on safety, quality, battery attachment rates and customer experience, delivering some incredible results this quarter.

I also want to celebrate the team at SnapNrack, our independently-run business which is proudly manufacturing premium solar racking in the United States, creating jobs and helping improve the efficiency of someone's installation activities and those across the industry. The team is busy innovating and ramping production of U.S.-made equipment to help the entire industry, including Sunrun, meet domestic content standards. Thanks so much, Troy, Charles, Aroon and the entire team. With that, let me turn the call over to Danny for our financial update.

[Danny Abajian, executive]

Thank you, Mary. Today, I will cover our operating and financial performance in the quarter, along with an update on our capital markets activities and outlook. Turning first to the results for the quarter on Slide 11. We have now installed over 116,000 solar and storage systems, with storage attachment rates reaching 54% of installations nationally during the quarter. We expect storage attachment rates to remain at or above this level around the remainder of the year.

This higher mix of storage continues to drive net subscriber values higher as back-up storage offerings carry higher margins. During the quarter, we installed 265-megawatt hours of storage capacity, well above the high end of our guidance and an increase of 152% compared to the same quarter last year. Our total networked storage capacity is now ultimately 1.8-gigawatt hours.

In the second quarter, solar energy capacity installed was approximately 192 megawatts, within our guidance range of 190 to 200 megawatts. Customer additions were approximately 26,700, including approximately 25,000 subscriber additions. Our subscription mix reached 95% of deployments in the period, an increase from 93% last quarter and again, the highest level in many years. We ended Q2 with 984,000 customers and approximately 828,000 subscribers, representing 7.1 gigawatts of networked solar energy capacity, a 14% increase year-over-year.

Our subscribers generate significant recurring revenue with most under 20- or 25-year contracts for the green energy we provide. At the end of Q2, our annual recurring revenue, or ARR, stood at almost $1.5 billion, up 27% over the same period last year. We had an average contract life remaining of nearly 18 years.

Turning to Slide 12. In Q2, subscriber value was approximately $49,600 and creation cost was approximately $37,200, delivering a net subscriber value of $12,394. This strong result was from higher battery attachment rates, efficiency and sequential growth in volumes. Although subscriber value decreased slightly in Q2 due to a smaller average system size relative to Q1, we expect this trend to reverse in Q3 and Q4 with higher average system sizes. If measured on a per-watt basis to normalize for system size, subscriber value per watt increased slightly from Q1.

Our Q2 subscriber value and net subscriber value reflect a blended investment tax credit of approximately 35%, again reflecting the portion of our deployed systems, qualifying for the energy communities and low-income ITC adders. Total value generated, which is the net subscriber value multiplied by the number of subscriber additions in the period, was $310 million in the second quarter. Our present value-based metrics are presented using a 6% discount rate, but our financial underwriting already accounts for our current cost of capital, which was approximately 7.5% in Q2.

As a reminder, to enable ease of comparison across periods, we generally do not update the discount rate frequently. Instead, we provide advance rate ranges that reflect current interest rates, enabling investors to calculate the obtainable net cash unit margins on our deployments. In addition, we provide a pro forma net subscriber value using the capital costs observed for the quarter.

At a 7.5% discount rate, net subscriber value was $7,075, and total value generated was $177 million. We expect additional tailwinds to net subscriber value in future periods from the following variety of factors: more favorable business mix; increased realization of ITC adders; lower hardware prices; labor efficiency and operating leverage from strong sequential volume growth.

On Slide 13, we detail the tailwinds from ITC adders. In Q2, we recognized the weighted average ITC of approximately 35%, the equivalent of approximately half of our systems qualifying for the energy communities or low-income adder. Proceeds from domestic content adders are expected to be realized in the coming quarters, including a retroactive monetization of a portion of 2023 and the year-to-date 2024 installations. We were encouraged to see the updated guidance in May, which should allow for a strong majority of our installations to qualify for this adder within a few quarters and increase our weighted average ITC level to around 45% in 2025.

Turning now to gross and net earning assets and our balance sheet on Slide 15. Gross earning assets were $15.7 billion at the end of the second quarter. Gross earning assets is the measure of cash flows we expect to receive from subscribers over time, net of operating and maintenance costs, distribution to tax equity partners and distributions to project equity financing partners, all discounted at a 6% unlevered data cost. Net earning assets were $5.7 billion at the end of the second quarter, up approximately $430 million from the prior quarter. Net earning assets is gross earning assets, plus cash, less all debt.

Net earning assets does not include inventory or other construction and progress assets or net derivative assets related to our interest rate swaps, all of which represent additional value. The value creation upside we expect from future grid services opportunities and selling additional products and services to our customer base are not reflected in these metrics. We programmatically enter into interest rate hedges to insulate our capital costs from adverse near-term fluctuations. The vast majority of our debt is either fixed-coupon long-dated securities or floating rate loans that have been hedged with interest rate swaps. As such, we do not adjust the discount rate used in net earning assets to match our capital costs for new installations.

We ended the quarter with over $1 billion in total cash, an increase of $259 million compared to the prior quarter. Cash generation was $217 million in Q2, which included the recovery of timing-related items. Most notably, the $181 million reduction in Q1 proceeds as the result of the transition from traditional tax equity to tax credit transfers.

Turning to our capital markets activities. As we discussed last call, we were very active in Q1 arranging capital to support our growth and further optimizing our balance sheet by extending maturities. To navigate potential and [ unexpected ] economic additions and volatility, we have been prudent to extend facilities early and proactively. As of today, closed transactions and executed term sheets provide us with expected tax equity capacity to fund over 313 megawatts of project for subscribers beyond what was deployed through the second quarter.

We also have over $1 billion in unused commitments available in our non-recourse senior revolving warehouse loan. This unused amount would fund approximately 373 megawatts of projects for subscribers. Our strong debt capital run rate allows us to be selective in timing term-out transactions. Since the start of the year, we have closed 3 ABS transactions. Sunrun's industry-leading performance as an originator and servicer of residential solar assets continues to provide deep access to attractively priced capital.

In June, we closed an $886 million ABS transaction, representing the largest ever securitization for Sunrun and the residential solar industry. We also arranged a subordinated financing on the portfolio. The Class A non-recourse debt, comprising both publicly and privately placed tranches, was rated A+ by Kroll. The Class A notes had a higher rating than precedent ABS transactions with comparable advance rates, evidencing the higher quality of our portfolios. The spread of 205 basis points on the public tranche represented a 35 basis point improvement from our previous comparable ABS transaction in September 2023.

The advance rates on the portfolio were 73% for the Class A notes and 83% cumulatively when including the additional subordinated financing. As previously noted, in February, we issued $483 million in convertible notes due in 2030 and can concurrently commenced repurchases of our 2026 convertible notes. To date, we have repurchased over $266 million or 2/3 of our 2026 convertible notes. This amount includes repurchases of $50 million in July. We will continue to be disciplined and selective with our repurchases.

When we think about our balance sheet, we prioritize a strong cash position and use of asset-level non-recourse debt financing. This strategy provides the lowest cost capital to finance cash flow producing assets backed by highly creditworthy consumers and to use parent recourse debt that is appropriately sized and balances, maturity dates, cash interest costs and flexibility.

Turning now to our outlook on Slide 18. The underpenetrated nature of our market gives us confidence we can sustain robust growth throughout this decade. In this strong long-term demand backdrop, our priority is to generate cash by continuing to increase customer values through growing storage adoption and other higher-value products and services and by reducing our costs.

Storage capacity installed is expected to be in a range of 275- to 300-megawatt hours in Q3. This represents approximately 64% growth year-over-year at the midpoint. For the full year, we are increasing our storage guidance to a range of 1,030 to 1,100 megawatt hours, representing 86% growth at the midpoint, an increase from our prior guidance range of 800 to 1,000 megawatt hours.

Solar energy capacity installed is expected to be in a range between 220 and 230 megawatts in Q3. At the midpoint, this represents 17% growth from Q2. For the full year, we expect solar energy capacity installed to decline approximately 15%, in line with the low end of our prior guidance range. We believe this guidance still represents market share gains underpinned by the strength of our subscription offering and our disciplined go-to-market approach.

We also expect year-over-year growth to be positive starting in Q4. Given our focus on increasing net subscriber values through product mix, additional ITC adders and cost efficiencies, we expect our net subscriber values will be materially higher in the second half of the year relative to Q2 levels. Because we have been increasing unit economics, total value generated growth will be at least 15 percentage points higher than solar installation growth. We remain committed to driving meaningful cash generation as we execute our margin-focused and disciplined growth strategy.

We are reiterating our cash generation outlook for Q4. We expect cash generation will be positive in Q3. $50 million to $125 million in Q4 and now $350 million to $600 million in 2025. On Slide 19, we have outlined sensitivities related to key variables that would affect our achievement. We now expect a large portion of our solar-only systems, in addition to our storage systems, to qualify for the domestic content adder starting later this year and into 2025.

We will provide more concrete expectations for amounts and timing of initial receipt of domestic content adders during the coming quarters. Our 2025 cash generation guidance reflects an approximately 45% average ITC. With that, let me turn it back to Mary.

[Mary Powell, executive]

Thanks, Danny. I want to again express my appreciation to the entire Sunrun team, your continued commitment to providing our customers and communities with clean, affordable energy to power their lives and to create value for all of our stakeholders is what drives us forward. Our rapid transition to a storage-first company is extending our differentiation, driving enhanced margins and delivering the best value to customers. Operator, let's open the line for questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs.

[Brian Lee, analyst]

Kudos on the solid cash generation here. I guess first question on that front, just given it's such a focus for you now and for the overall market as well, how are you thinking about capital allocation priorities, especially into 2025 as you think about now the significantly higher and absolute levels of cash gen you're talking about. And then just given the wide range, what are some of the biggest swing factors for the '25 outlook for cash gen? Is it rates? Is it mix, et cetera? Just what's sort of in your control versus what's not in your control. If we're trying to kind of handicap your potential to reach the higher end of some of those cash generation targets? And then I have a follow-up.

[Danny Abajian, executive]

Brian, it's Danny. I'll take the second part of the question first, and I'll just generally refer to Slide 19 of the presentation where we do kind of zero-in on the 3 primary factors. If we're trying to think for sensitivities, they are the ITC realization rate cost of capital in the battery rates. I think those are the principal 3 we highlighted in the past as well. And we -- per point or quarter point of change in each of those, we've indicated the degree of sensitivity. So I'd refer you there for those big 3.

There are a bunch of other items noted around mostly timing, I would say, in the bucket of not entirely within our control, always at all times, so that could have some intra-quarter variability around incentive monetization, capital markets timing. Just as a general reminder, we gave out 3 to 4 turn out transactions a year. So the timing for those will matter. And generally, other working capital, I mentioned incentives, rebates, the ITC monetization, the timing of cash received by transaction, I'll put those all in the timing budgets in addition to the 3 run rate factors.

On the capital allocation question, we'll continue to evaluate the best options to remain disciplined around that and parent deleveraging to better position the balance sheet will become a focus that will drive available -- higher available liquidity, clean up the balance sheet, which we think will drive shareholder value meaningfully as we do that. And then the remainder, the balance will be put the best use with that us being determined at the time. Buybacks and other uses will get into consideration. Of course, some of which would be a Board-level decision considering the best use of the time.

[Brian Lee, analyst]

Okay. That's awesome. Great color. Maybe one for Mary since she brought it up in your prepared remarks, just obviously real-time developments around some of your peers, not doing very well in the marketplace, potential for share gain for you. Given the better cash flow prospects, you talked about gaining some share. How would you factor in kind of adding incremental growth and spending money on that as a priority for capital allocation in '25? Just on the solar side, obviously, you very well on the storage side already.

But given you're also talking about being back to double-digit year-on-year solar growth exiting this year, it seems like you might have a tailwind into '25. Like what are the sort of the spending priorities/needs you might be looking at there?

[Mary Powell, executive]

Brian, good to chat with you. Yes. So just to reiterate again, we're going to continue our disciplined margin-focused approach and strategy. So yes, certainly, what is happening is providing some opportunity for us, some market opportunity. As I said in my remarks, I mean, we were really thrilled to have really 2 industry veterans and leaders joined our new homes team, and we are talking to some of really the most significant builders in the market. And so we're progressing those kinds of conversations and looking at ways we can continue to grow in our margin-focused way, measured way that delivers what we're after, right, which is volume and margin and cash generation.

So that is like -- you're not going to see any change. That's what our focus is on while we also continue to really drive -- continue to drive efficiencies in the business. So I'm really proud of what the team has done both on the customer experience side from an NPS perspective, but also from an efficiency perspective, as we have also done in the operations of the company.

We've been in the new homes business for some time. We've been in the business of working with really important partners. So we also see some opportunity. We've had a number of affiliate partners reach out to us. And so again, we're really pleased to be having those conversations and continuing to build out the momentum we have in the business towards, again, that margin accretive, profitable growth. So Paul, I don't know if there's anything you want to add to that.

[Paul Dickson, executive]

Maybe [indiscernible] just similar as we've talked about in the past on the dealer side of the business, we're seeing people migrate more to safe harbor -- safer harbors, and we don't view this situation where one where the market is demanding people come in and overpay to attract the volume. Much of our conversations with these new homes partners and other volume sources that SunPower's had historically. They're coming to us looking for the foundation of Sunrun has, our reliable business that knows how to predictably price, service and maintain and deliver for consumers and do some of [indiscernible]. So we've definitely seen that take place. We are, however, investing in product expansion and not chasing volume specifically. And we don't anticipate that exercise. It consumes a lot of capital, but we do think it contributes towards that mid-teens double-digit year-over-year growth resuming in Q4.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin Smith with Jefferies.

[Julien Dumoulin Smith, analyst]

Nicely done indeed on the cash gen here. Maybe pick it up where Brian left off here, if we can. Just on the full year and just rolling forward here, I mean, cash gen looks very constructive. What does that reflect in terms of volumes looking to '25? You said, as you look to the full year, obviously, expecting solar volumes to decline, but seeing an inflection here to positive beginning in Q4. Just how do you think about that volumetrically across the space as you look forward here? What's reflected? And related -- well, actually, I'll let you and I'll follow up with a clarification.

[Danny Abajian, executive]

Julien, I'll give the short answer on volume as it related to cash gen, which is double-digit growth. I think we made the remark on the script. Getting to that level in Q4 and holding at that level beyond Q4 is the anticipation. That's in line with the longer-term view and objective double-digit like mid-teens industry growth potential as well.

[Julien Dumoulin Smith, analyst]

I always try to ask for more granularity, right. If I can, I was just passing on this little further right. So despite the eligibility on solar-only systems for domestic content here, you're still raising storage guidance, right? I think that's an interesting dynamic here by 10% to 20%. Is that a statement on California and NEM market specifically, right, as you think about California being a big driver here nationally on volumes is the fact that storage is doing relatively well, a statement of what you guys specifically are seeing in California?

[Mary Powell, executive]

It's a statement on what we specifically see provides incredible value for customers all across America as well as for our shareholders. So we've made the into a multiproduct company with our storage-first strategy. We sell other products as well, but storage has really been a key focus of ours, not just because of the value it provides for shareholders, the value it provides for customers in terms of resilience, but also what we really continue to see is going to be a future unlock, which is the grid services value that we continue to talk about.

So it really allows us on over time to be building a fleet of stored energy capacity that I think is going to become increasingly valuable in the United States as utilities face not just rising cost challenges but capacity challenges as well.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Moses Sutton with BNP Paribas.

[Moses Sutton, analyst]

Congrats on seller update. How do you think of competing for tax equity and transferability hybrid funds in the context of rising demand for such capital, particularly from your top competitor who is successfully pushing deeper into these markets, but possibly also from former loan providers and others trying to flood into this market?

[Danny Abajian, executive]

Moses, this is Danny. We feel pretty well positioned. I think, in particular, given how many years they've been added, right, the buyer universe that's been pretty stable for us over many years, the ability to implement hybrid structures where we're combining the traditional buyer universe with a very rapidly expanding set of transferability buyers, many of whom are in the 9-figure ZIP code for individual check size in the transactions.

I think just given the momentum we've seen build over the year, we feel well positioned. We're well aware of the kind of the overall demand for tax equity. But I think it is being balanced for us with the radically expanding available supply that's coming in from the corporate buyer universe that is supplementing deal sizes in a very, very material way for us.

[Edward Fenster, executive]

And Moses, this is Ed. I would say that the company, I think, has a fantastic reputation across all of our capital providers on the nonrecourse side, but I think that is particularly acute with tax equity who we've been working for, for so long they have done. Dozens of funds with multiple counterparties, both the company's performance, the lack of need to amend the transactions, the quality of the team, all those things, I think, contribute to us being really on the top of the list of counterparties for those capital providers. And I think we feel very good about it.

[Danny Abajian, executive]

Yes. the reliable -- and then one point just on that, like the reliable flow nature of our business leads new predictive -- very high rate of predictability for the person on the other side seeking tax credits and a tax planning exercise as well. And I think that's understood by the market.

[Moses Sutton, analyst]

I think that's very helpful. And I sort of remember you're competing as far as [ SolarCity's ] days, so you've proven that. I guess one more separately. I noticed $220 million early repayment of pass-through financing. How is that reflected in cash gen? Was that swapped out new project that I know that was sort of a form of former kind of tax equity. But what's happening there with that $220 million?

[Danny Abajian, executive]

Moses, are you referring to the repayment of -- Sorry, I missed part of the question. Is it the repayment of the tax equity financing obligation?

[Moses Sutton, analyst]

No, I noticed the early repayment of pass-through financing of $220 million. You had $20 million last quarter also.

[Danny Abajian, executive]

Yes, those -- that was the older style of tax equity fund that reached its buyout point. I think we've had a rolling amount of tax equity buyouts. I think this is no different. The tax equity is done the asset capital structure gets cleaned up eventually in connection with that. So I think that's just a kind of ordinary course type of activity for us. These funds just reach kind of end of life in terms of getting to the buyout point.

[Moses Sutton, analyst]

Right. Sorry, how was that paid? Was that reducing cash generation though?

[Danny Abajian, executive]

It would have been paid with a concurrent debt financing of the assets in connection with [indiscernible]

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Joseph Osha with Guggenheim Partners.

[Joseph Osha, analyst]

Following on Moses' question, insofar as the market for transferable credits is concerned, I'm wondering if you can give us some rough commentary on where those transactions are clearing in terms of pricing. And then I'm also curious as to whether there's any difference in the market, if you're looking at something that might be perceived as a little more aggressive like stacking and energy communities, credit and domestic content on top of the 30%? Or is everything kind of priced the same?

And then my -- I'll just give you my follow-up, which is super simple. I want to clarify on the cash generation for next year. Are you talking Q4 '24 to Q4 '25 for the $350 million to $600 million? I just want to make sure I'm thinking about the right comps.

[Danny Abajian, executive]

So taking the first part. So really, the primary pricing data point is the price per credit being paid. And I think that's been in a low 90s -- express in cents per dollar of credit in the low 90s range. I think that has moved incrementally, I think, over the course of the year, especially later in the year, we could see pricing move up for those looking to fill out the year and they're just kind of in a moment for urgent demand. So we're seeing some of that activity now materialize in the back half of the year. Potentially, we'll see more of it.

Generally, the long-term expectation is that we see a price per credit incrementally pick up over time, both because the fire universe expands. But then we mature to the point where we're seeing repeat buying activity and it's not kind of reliability play where we could see the value differentiation or the ticking up in value coming to play.

[indiscernible] there will be monetization of retroactive credits. So pricing can be a little bit different depending on how far back we're reaching. And there's no distinction. It's -- because it's dollar credit transfer, there isn't a distinction between the type of adder that's being paid for. [indiscernible] part of the question.

[Joseph Osha, analyst]

Yes, that was my question. There's not any kind of perceived high level of recapture if you're stacking multiple credits. People are just kind of paying what they're paying.

[Danny Abajian, executive]

I think that's generally right. I mean, investors are doing their diligence and they're paying in consideration of their diligence. I think the prices reflect that. And then can you remind me the second part, the follow-up?

[Joseph Osha, analyst]

Yes, it's a simple clarification that '25 cash generation target, can I think of that as where you exit '24 and then where you exit '25? I just want to make sure I understand...

[Danny Abajian, executive]

That's more simply the cash generation in the year. So through all 4 quarters added up.

[Joseph Osha, analyst]

All right. So I want to make sure I'm clear. What does that imply for exiting '24 versus exiting '25 if I'm just comping like-to-like, what has that number been?

[Danny Abajian, executive]

Right. So we have 50 to 125 for Q4 is the guidance. And if you simply annualize that by multiplying by 4, that's $200 million to $500 million is the exit pace. And then for the full year next year, it's $350 million to $600 million.

[Joseph Osha, analyst]

Yes. I guess -- I'm sorry, I want to clarify this. Is -- are you saying that exiting 2025, the cash balance exiting the year should be between $350 million and $600 million higher than the cash balance exiting 2024.

[Danny Abajian, executive]

That's correct, unrestricted.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Percoco with Morgan Stanley.

[Andrew Percoco, analyst]

I do want to ask another question on this cash generation here just related to some of the ITC adders. I mean, I guess, I just would have expected a slightly more meaningful jump in 2025 as you fully realize some of that domestic content at or I believe that the top end of the $250 million to $500 million range that you provided for the fourth quarter this year contemplated like a 40% ITC. If that goes to 45%, I guess, I would have expected the top end of next year to be slightly above where you're guiding. Is that just conservatism? Am I misreading some of your sensitivities? We'd just love some additional color around how you're thinking about benefiting from some of those credits and whether or not there's potentially additional upside if you don't pass that through to the customer?

[Danny Abajian, executive]

Andrew, yes, so based on the implied volume growth we expect to see next year the volume mix and the amount of adders, the $350 million to $600 million implies a high single digits to slightly north of 10% type of free cash flow margin, if you will. So just taking free cash flow against the -- all the proceeds raised for financing in the business as the indexing, which we view as an appropriate level of target margin for the business next year, especially as we figure out how to market by market, go-to-market with the adders, especially the domestic content piece in areas where we have lower battery adoption, there might be some pricing benefits accruing to the consumer as opposed to us.

Like all things considered as we watch that through, and that's 6% to 10% level of net margin even through like consideration for working capital as we resume growth, we feel like it's an appropriate target area to expect.

[Andrew Percoco, analyst]

Understood. Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe just switching gears, coming back to the battery storage part of your business for a second. Maybe can you just elaborate, obviously, California very, very strong. Battery storage market under NEM 3. Can you just give us any data points or anecdotes in terms of what you're seeing on attach rates outside of California? You mentioned Texas already. But maybe just compare and contrast where you are on battery attach rates in some of those markets today versus 2023 or 2022, that would be helpful?

[Unknown Executive]

Yes. I think overall, we see consumers in every market expressing interest in batteries, but we really have pockets that have our stronger battery attach rates. So inside Hawaii and Puerto Rico, obviously, we have nearly 100% or 100% battery attached. California in the backup storage is 80% -- well under the 80%. Texas has been trending up really steeply as we've talked about in the past. So for us, the heavy focus was Mary kind of alluded to this being a core strategy for us is opening up additional markets. And across the East Coast, you see a lot of markets that have relatively low penetration today, but have really attractive consumer value props. The grid deeply needs that we see a lot of future opportunity because of it.

Our sell people are eager to sell it. So as we work with policy, the different cities, the utilities and a good market strategy, that's kind of where additional growth would come. But nationwide, I would say, strong demand for it and pockets that we've cracked the code on and other markets that are emerging.

[Mary Powell, executive]

Yes. And I would also just build on that by saying we see just really significant potential in our retrofit program going back to our existing customer base. So again, we expect to see real growth there as well.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Kashy Harrison with Piper Sandler.

[Kashy Harrison, analyst]

And congrats on the cash gen. So my first question goes back to the commentary surrounding irrational pricing. If we take that comment and then we combine that with the fact that the OEMs will have domestic content available for pretty much everyone, what gives you guys the confidence that competition won't just end up eliminating the excess benefit of the higher ITC and that you guys can, in fact, retain the value, like what makes you think that the cost of the lease across the board hasn't just come down and really it benefits the customer, but you and your peers end up in a relatively similar cash position as this year?

[Paul Dickson, executive]

Yes. Great question. So I think, today, we're proving that out in the reality that we're generating cash. We have differential price points and returns than our competition. And we see a large component of the market is out there selling and operating higher rates to sales dealers than we do, and we still have the volume and the growth and the kind of pricing power that we have. And as we see more competitors struggle and go out, we see consumers get more thoughtful around selecting who they go sort with on merits other than just the price they're paying.

We also think that complication is our competitive advantage. And so as markets get more complicated, have different rate structures that require batteries and other considerations to deliver a complete consumer value we view that as absolutely our advantage and anticipate more markets becoming more complicated and us being able to price differentially as a result.

[Edward Fenster, executive]

And then as Danny mentioned, some pass-through to the customer is considered.

[Mary Powell, executive]

Yes. I mean, for sure, how we built our guidance. We built in the assumption that some would flow through to benefit customers without a doubt, yes, for sure. And we are just building on what Paul said, that is something we are definitely seeing that I think is more recent, which is -- and probably the most recent disruption with SunPower will drive this home even further where customers are looking harder at servicing. They're looking harder at the long-term relationship where, again, Sunrun just has a very, very strong story to tell.

[Kashy Harrison, analyst]

Got it. I appreciate the color there from everyone. And then my follow-up question, maybe a little bit more theoretical, may be a little bit tricky to answer, more difficult to answer. But let's say rates decline faster current -- faster than the market currently anticipates, faster than what's implied in yield curves just due to a more significant deterioration in the economy. Do you have any historical reference for how project financing spreads could trend?

I'm basically trying to understand if you get lower benchmarks, but they're offset entirely by higher credit spreads? Or if you think that would potentially be a net benefit to you or if it's just too difficult to answer until you go ahead and do a deal under that scenario?

[Danny Abajian, executive]

That's a great question. And prior to assuming the role, I like capital markets. We've seen this play out through cycles and different points and cycles. You might -- and I suspect what we're seeing right now in capital markets transactions when there is an immediate and sudden change in base rates, you might see a little bit of credit spread impact. Those can be relatively short-lived. We go through a period of price reset, price discovery. We've seen it happen over the last couple of years even, where spreads have momentarily moved. And in subsequent transactions, they've come back down.

So we've planned for all of that. I think we're taking both sides of the equation, looking at base rates and planning appropriately and conservatively for credit spreads as we plan out the cash generation of the business. As far as the approach, when base rates fall, monthly, we -- and even weekly, we hedge the base rate. When we lock in the base rate environment we're in, or that weaker month, depending on the life cycle of where the asset is relative to install. And we effectively protect that rate until the asset is installed

So we've been quite -- as you can imagine, we've been happy with that very recently with the pullback in [indiscernible] and the 7-year treasury, indexes our borrowing cost, and that's down quite a bit ahead of the -- any decision by the to start reducing short-term rates. So we're already benefiting from that. On the credit spread environment, we'll be very thoughtful about how we approach markets. So in the past where we've seen momentary short-lived rises in credit spreads rather than doing noncallable transactions in the capital markets, it might turn out in the commercial bank market, which has refinancing flexibility for a future point when credit spreads come back down. So we've got a well scripted playbook for out of experience in playing that through different points in the cycle.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of James West with Evercore ISI.

[James West, analyst]

I wanted to just quickly ask about the current pricing environment. Mary, I know you mentioned it was getting -- your competition that had been a little sloppy was getting better, a little like it some more context on this. Are these larger competitors? Are these smaller competitors? Are these competitors that are slowly going out of business? I mean what's changing in the overall pricing environment? And how is it helping to get better?

[Mary Powell, executive]

Yes. So thanks for the question. I view it more as like we were giving you an update versus a size mix shift. So there has been, I would say -- since the inflation Reduction Act, there has been, particularly in the financing-only space with the rapid move to third-party-owned model versus loan, there's been a lot of entrants into the space. So I do it more as we were giving an update. We are definitely glad to see what we thought would happen, which is some maturation as entrants learn that this is a very, very different space than loans or cash. But Paul, do you want to add any specific color relative to his question?

[Paul Dickson, executive]

Yes. I think the only thing I would add to that is when a new financial entrant comes in and there's been a pretty big handful of them with small individual scale, but several of them, they come in with low controls, attractive pricing and trying to buy up and grow market share. And as them and their finances were more about owning 25-year assets, tax credits or the things that Danny [indiscernible] well scripted playbook that we've built over nearly 2 decades. As they were in those things, they are repricing and implementing a lot of the controls that we already have in place, bringing it closer to a level playing field. And as that happens, volume migrates back to us. And so we have not seen and don't see these people -- these groups scaling, but it's more of the quantity of them out in the marketplace with transferability tax credits making it more readily available.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Philip Shen with ROTH Capital Partners.

[Unknown Analyst]

This is Robert on Phil's line. First question is just for the inverter battery procurement strategy for domestic content. Second is how you're thinking about originations over the next 12 months and leveraging tax equity versus tax credit transferability? Philosophically, how are you making the decision between tax credit transfers and tax equity? To what degree does tax credit transfer improve the GAAP financials and then which is more expensive between tax equity and tax transfers? I know you kind of touched on that a bit earlier, if you could provide any additional color, that would be helpful.

[Danny Abajian, executive]

Yes, yes. I think on the first part of the question, we think that will get implied in the 45% weighted average ITC level guided for next year is -- the vast majority of our systems qualifying, whether they are storage or solar-only. In the case of solar-only, it's a combination of components, including the inverter, the racking. We called out -- it gave a shout out to SnapNrack on the call. There is domestic content qualification contribution from that business that will primarily benefit solar only.

On the battery side, we have been using batteries that have been manufactured in the U.S. I think there's good line of sight industry wide on batteries as well. On the second part on the mix of financing, I think we'll definitely see a mix of both, and we'll even see participation of traditional tax equity players hybrid format where it does look like a tax equity fund and a large portion of the credits will be transferred out and the traditional participants will be also active in brokering the transfer out of the fund.

So we'll expect a good deal of that hybrid format, and we'll probably see a mix of an arrangement of third parties by us in structures where each participant takes a different part of the value stream. And we're participating out the transfer credits. I think it will be more often than not that there's a tax credit transfer involved in the transaction. What that does is it takes the size we would have had in a bilateral transaction with a traditional player. It allows us to raise single tax equity fund of much greater size. So I think that's a key benefit for us and to consider the number of deals we have to do throughout the course of the year.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Maheep Mandloi with Mizuho.

[Maheep Mandloi, analyst]

Firstly, just on the storage growth here. Could you just help us understand whether it's driven by attach rate growth? Or are you seeing larger system sizes, maybe more backup and sort of shift batteries in California and then had a follow-up on cash generation.

[Mary Powell, executive]

I mean we're definitely seeing that it's driven by a higher attachment rate, as we've talked about, as well as the fact that many customers want now hold on backup. So we're seeing more and more customers with the desire for multiple batteries. So again, 2, in some cases, 3. Sometimes that is tied to a larger solar system size as well depending on the individual customer. But for sure, that is a big part of what is driving the storage attachment rate and the growth. It's both the attachment rate and the number of products per customer.

[Maheep Mandloi, analyst]

Got you. And just on cash generation for next year. Any just early thoughts on the cadence there versus that Q4 run rate? Is it more linear or some seasonality, I think, in the past said Q1 weaker, but any thoughts appreciated?

[Danny Abajian, executive]

I think other than we expect normal seasonality. Q1, we get volume decline. We start to see that pick up in Q2, more materially in Q3. And that has a -- historically, if you look at our cash generation, obviously, adjusted for onetime extraordinary items, especially this year, you will see that sort of shape of cash generation. I think that will continue, but we'll get more specific as we go.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Dylan Nassano with Wolfe Research.

[Dylan Nassano, analyst]

Just going back to the questions on domestic content and the qualifying equipment. How much do you plan to shift the current equipment mix as it stands now to potentially realize more adders in the back half of this year? And then just a follow-up is how permanent could those changes be? Would you kind of revert back to the prior mix at some point?

[Paul Dickson, executive]

Yes. I think the current products that we have inventory are set established and flowing out into installs currently our domestic content qualified. So that is and has been underway.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Colin Rusch with Oppenheimer.

[Colin Rusch, analyst]

Can you talk about how much market risk you're taking on pricing with these aggregated capacity portfolios? And secondly, are you seeing any uptick from potential utility partners to start new programs, especially given what's going on with interconnection piece?

[Mary Powell, executive]

Could you repeat the beginning of the question, I'm not sure I followed it. Are you talking about the

[Colin Rusch, analyst]

Yes, with the VPPs, how much market risk are you taking on the pricing? And how should we think about that flowing through the model as we go through the balance of this year and into next year?

[Mary Powell, executive]

We're not taking market risk with the pricing. So all of the virtual power plant projects that we're actively engaging in are positive for customers and positive for Sunrun. And again, like the value of what we're doing is not just the initial inherent value for customers and for Sunrun. But it's really, again, as you mentioned, I think in the second part of your question so much tied to the future potential value as, again, we're seeing it play out all over the country, more acutely in some parts of the country than others, but where utilities really don't have the capacity to meet the electrification demand combined with weather events that are happening, combined with, of course, the highly talked about publicized AI, low growth demand. So we see that our resources are going to continue to have increased economic value in the coming 3 to 5 years.

[Operator]

Thank you. That concludes the time that has been allocated for Q&A. You may now disconnect.