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Red Rock Resorts Inc
Earnings Call Analysis
Q4-2023 Analysis
Red Rock Resorts Inc
Station Casinos has showcased strong performance with recent openings and amenities launched in 2023, with expectations to continue this trend into 2024. Exciting new offerings like high-limit slot rooms and upgraded restaurants are expected to be valuable in the medium to long term. The sale of former properties has generated liquidity, with a special dividend reflecting confidence in the business and the Las Vegas market.
The newly opened Durango property is outperforming expectations with no significant cannibalization observed. Future focus will be on fine-tuning efficiencies at Durango, which is anticipated to be a significant growth asset for years to come, backed by an influx of new residential developments in the area.
Station Casinos is capitalizing on the Super Bowl event, with an exceptionally high impact on hotel and casino segments, indicating an increased interest beyond the usual surge seen during this period in Las Vegas.
Operational disruptions, due to extended road work and new feature introductions at properties, are being counterbalanced with long-term growth strategies that have proven successful elsewhere in the portfolio. Investments in property upgrades continue to yield positive results, although short-term impacts are being monitored.
Station Casinos maintains a cautious yet positive outlook, with consistent loyalty program performance and expectations for robust group room nights and catering in the first and fourth quarters of 2024. The company is focused on dealing with labor inflation and core operational expenses diligently to ensure sustainable growth while being agile in adapting to market conditions.
As a competitive employer with a strong culture and benefits package, Station Casinos is keen on maintaining its market position, attracting, and retaining quality employees, which also constitute a significant portion of their customer base. The company is exploring the tavern segment for expansion, targeting high-growth areas with attractive investment returns.
The strategic locations of Station Casinos' properties, particularly with Durango positioned by the highly trafficked freeway, confer a competitive edge in attracting a wide customer base as the city grows. The emphasis on accessibility and location underlines the company's approach to long-term value creation.
With a current balance of $110 million, Station Casinos is exploring non-course financing for project development, signifying prudent financial management and expansion strategies in the pipeline.
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Good afternoon, and welcome to Red Rock Resorts' Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Stephen Cootey, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer of Red Rock Resorts. Please go ahead.
Thank you, operator, and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today for Red Rock Resorts' fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings conference call. Joining me on the call today are Frank and Lorenzo Fertitta, Scott Kreeger and our executive management team.I'd like to remind everyone that our call today will include forward-looking statements under the safe harbor provisions of the United States federal securities laws. Developments and results may differ from those projected. During this call, we will also discuss non-GAAP financial measures. For definitions and complete reconciliation for these figures to GAAP, please refer to the financial tables in our earnings press release, Form 8-K and investor deck, which were filed this afternoon prior to the call. Also, please note that this call is being recorded.Before we get into any of the details, we are proud to say that the fourth quarter represented another strong quarter for the company by any measure. In terms of adjusted EBITDA, our Las Vegas operations had the best fourth quarter in the history of our company. And in terms of net revenue and adjusted EBITDA margin, our Las Vegas operations experienced its second best fourth quarter ever. As we look at our results for the full year, our Las Vegas operations experienced near record net revenue and adjusted EBITDA margin while achieving our best adjusted EBITDA in the history of our company.In addition to showing strong financial results, 2023 was a year in which we continue to validate our long-term growth strategy across the Las Vegas Valley by welcoming our Durango and Wildfire Fremont properties to the Red Rock family. The successful openings of these properties not only validates our long-term growth strategy within the Las Vegas Valley, it also demonstrates the power of our own development pipeline and real estate bank, which now consists of over 441 acres of developable land positioned in the highly favorable areas across the Las Vegas Valley.Not only do we expand our physical footprint across the valley in 2023, we continue to execute on our core strategy of reinvesting in our existing properties to deliver fresh and relevant amenities to our guests, all while remaining focused on best-in-class customer service. In executing this strategy, the team delivered another strong quarter across all business lines, with this quarter marking the 14th consecutive quarter that the Las Vegas operations delivered adjusted EBITDA margins in excess of 45%.Now let's take a look at our fourth quarter and full year results. With respect to our Las Vegas operations and with our Durango resort only opened 27 days in the quarter, our fourth quarter net revenue was $459.4 million, up 9.5% from the prior year's fourth quarter. Our adjusted EBITDA was $220.3 million, up 6.5% from the prior year's fourth quarter. Our adjusted EBITDA margin was 48%, a decrease of 134 basis points from the prior year's fourth quarter.On a consolidated basis, excluding a onetime benefit received in the fourth quarter last year from Graton, our fourth quarter net revenue was $462.7 million, up 9.3% from the prior year's fourth quarter. Our adjusted EBITDA was $201.3 million, up 6.1% from the prior year's fourth quarter. Our adjusted EBITDA margin was 43.5% for the quarter, a decrease of 133 basis points from the prior year's fourth quarter.Let's turn to our full year performance. With respect to our Las Vegas operations, our full year net revenue was $1.7 billion, up 3.6% from the prior year. Our full year adjusted EBITDA was $818.8 million, up 1% from the prior year. And our full year adjusted EBITDA margin was 47.9%, a decrease of 134 basis points in the prior year. On a consolidated basis, excluding the onetime benefit we received last year from Graton, our full year net revenue was $1.7 billion, up 3.8% from the prior year. Our full year adjusted EBITDA was $746 million, up 0.4% from the prior year. Our full year adjusted EBITDA margin was 43.3%, a decrease of 143 basis points from the prior year.In the quarter, we converted 72% of our adjusted EBITDA to operating free cash flow, generating $147.1 million or $1.41 per share. When looking at our 2023 cumulative free cash flow, we converted 59% of our adjusted EBITDA to operating cash flow, generating $437.6 million or $4.18 per share. This significant level of free cash flow was either reinvested in our long-term growth strategy, including our Durango and Wildfire Fremont projects, existing property investments or return to our stakeholders via debt paydown and dividends.As in past quarters, we continue to remain operationally disciplined and focused on our core local guests as well as continue to grow our regional and national segments. When comparing our results to last year's fourth quarter, we continue to see upside from strong visitation in play in our local, regional and national segments. The strength coupled with strong spend per visit across the majority of our carded play allowed us to enjoy record fourth quarter revenue and profitability across our gaming segments.Turning to the non-gaming segments. Both hotel and food and beverage continue to grow year-over-year and delivered record revenue and profitability in the fourth quarter. Our hotel division experienced its highest quarterly revenue and profit in our company's history, driven by our team's success on continuing to drive higher occupancy and ADR across our hotel portfolio.Food and beverage experienced its highest quarterly revenue and profit in our company's history, driven by higher average check and cover counts across our food and beverage outlets and the continued strength of our catering business. Our catering revenue continues to remain strong as this quarter represented the 10th consecutive quarter of double-digit year-over-year growth in this business line. With regard to our group sales, despite a difficult year-over-year comparison, we continue to see positive momentum in this business driven by growth in both room nights and ADR as our pipeline continues to grow into 2024.As we begin the new year, we remain confident in our business, particularly with the addition of our Durango property, though we will continue to face challenging year-over-year comparisons throughout 2024 as well as face continuing disruption in our Palace Station property due to ongoing traffic work around the property during the first half of 2024.On the expense and labor side, we remain operationally disciplined and continue to look for ways to become more efficient while continuing to provide best-in-class customer service to our guests and remaining the top employer of choice in the Las Vegas Valley. Despite a tougher year-over-year comparable, the company continues to manage its expenses, generate record financial performance and return capital to our shareholders. These results demonstrate the resilience of our business model, the sustainability of our operating margins and the ability of our management team to execute on our long-term growth strategy while taking a balanced approach to returning capital to our shareholders.Also, during the quarter, we successfully opened our Durango Casino Resort on December 5th to rave reviews from our customers. Our newest destination is located off the 215 Expressway in Durango Drive in the Southwest Las Vegas Valley within the fastest-growing area in the Las Vegas Valley, with a very creative demographic profile and no unrestricted gaming competitors in the 5-mile radius.While we are still in early days, we are extremely pleased with the resorts opening as the property thus far has grown the surrounding market, has attracted new customers to our brand and has been profitable since day 1. As we have stated on past earnings calls, we expected to experience and have experienced some cannibalization across our core portfolio through the Durango opening. But this has been largely in line with our expectations and is expected to backfill given the strong long-term demographic growth profile of the Las Vegas Valley and our proximity of our properties to those high-growth areas within the Valley.Now let's cover a few balance sheet and capital items. The company's cash and cash equivalents at the end of the fourth quarter was $137.6 million, and the total principal amount of debt outstanding was $3.3 billion, resulting in a net debt of $3.2 billion. As of the end of the fourth quarter, the company's net debt to EBITDA and interest coverage ratio was 4.3x and 4.7x, respectively. As we stated on our previous earnings calls, our leverage is peaking as we wrap up our Durango project and is expected to ramp down as we look to delever to our long-term net leverage target of 3x.Capital spend in the fourth quarter was $187 million, which includes approximately $168.7 million of investment capital inclusive of Durango, as well $18.3 million in maintenance capital. For the full year 2023, capital spend was $699.5 million, which includes approximately $615.4 million in investment capital, inclusive of Durango, as well as $84.1 million in maintenance capital. As we look into our capital spending for 2024, we expect to spend between $140 million and $180 million spread between maintenance and investment capital.During the quarter, along with the opening of Durango, we remain committed to strategically investing in our core strategy of offering new amenities to our guests at our existing locations. Over the past several months, we have successfully opened a new high-limit table room in our Green Valley Ranch property. We are pleased with the early results from this room. as well as all the other amenities we have opened up in 2023.We expect to continue to invest in our existing properties in 2024, including a new high limit slot room -- do [high-limit slot] room, as well as 2 new restaurant offerings at Green Valley Ranch and an upgraded race and sports book, a partial casino remodel and a new yard house restaurant at Sunset Station. We are very excited to move beyond the challenges created by the construction of these properties and introduce these new amenities to our customers later this year. Like our other more recently introduced amenities, we expect these to be solid investments over the medium and long term.Consistent with our balanced approach to investing in our long-term growth strategy and returning capital to our shareholders, we are pleased to announce the company's Board of Directors has declared a special cash dividend of $1 per Class A share. The special dividend will be payable on March 4 to all shareholders of record as of the close of business on February 22. The dividend reflects our Board and management team's continued confidence in the resilience of our business model and the strength of the Las Vegas local market.Lastly, in November 2023, we successfully completed the sale of approximately 73 acres at our former Fiesta Rancho and Texas Station properties for approximately $58 million. Proceeds from this transaction were used to pay down debt and represent the continued execution of our long-term real estate development strategy as we look to reposition and upgrade our real estate portfolio for the next chapter of growth at Station Casinos.Turning now to North Fork. As you may be aware, our management agreement with the tribe was approved by the Chairman of the National Indian Gaming Commission in early January, clearing one of the last hurdles to the development of this project, which will be located on the tribe's 305-acre parcel of trust land. The site is located north of Fresno, California and offers convenient ingress and egress and excellent visibility from Highway 99. The design is near complete, and we expect we are fully engaged in the process of retaining a general contractor and discussing the project with financiers. We are very excited to be making great progress on this project, and we will continue to provide updates on our quarterly [ earnings call ]In addition to our previously announced special dividend on February 7, the company announced that the Board of its directors has declared a regular cash dividend of $0.25 per Class A common share payable for the first quarter of 2024. The regular dividend will be payable on March 29th to all shareholders of record as of the close of business on March 15th.When we combine our special dividend with our regularly declared first quarter dividend, we expect to return approximately $136.6 million to our shareholders during the first quarter of 2024. With our best-in-class assets and locations, coupled with our development pipeline of 7 owned sites located in the most desirable locations in the Las Vegas Valley, we have an unparalleled growth story that will allow us to double the size of our portfolio and capitalize on the very favorable long-term demographic trends and high barriers to entry that characterize the Las Vegas locals market.We would like to recognize and extend our thanks to all of our team members for their hard work. Our success starts with them and they continue to be the primary reason why our guests return time after time. We'd like to thank them again for voting us the top casino employer in Las Vegas Valley for the third consecutive year. And finally, we'd like to thank our guests for their loyal support in each of the last 6 decades. Operator, this concludes our prepared remarks for today, and we are now ready to take questions.
[Operator Instructions] The first question today comes from Joe Greff with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Obviously, the results were better than we and consensus we're expecting from an EBITDA perspective of EBITDA up 13 -- a little over $13 million year-over-year. I'm assuming there is net cannibalization or cannibalization ex Durango in there. I was hoping you can maybe sort of quantify maybe same-store EBITDA performance and then maybe also frame it with same-store EBITDA margin performance in the quarter or in December as we think about kind of modelling the ramp or the anticipation of a ramp throughout the balance of 2024 between Durango and the rest of the portfolio?
Yes. This is Steve. So, I mean before I hand it over to Scott, I just want to -- we haven't broken out properties in the past. And so, I don't think we're going to be doing so in the future. But just for general note on cannibalization and how Durango is doing, I'll turn it back over to Scott.
Yeah. Hi, Joe. As far as Durango goes, we've opened up and the property is performing above our expectations. We're super happy with how we opened up the team's effort across the whole employee base of the company. We want to extend our banks for all of the support and things are going great. When we talk about cannibalization, specifically, we're not experiencing any different levels of cannibalization than we forecasted in previous calls.So, we think that it's right on track. And I think that it's important to note that we've always said that these properties ramp and that our focus in the early days with Durango is provide great quality service, quality product. And we're working through the efficiencies of Durango and everything is really trending as we expected.
Great. Thanks. And I was hoping maybe you can give us some sort of perspective for the locals market and the benefits from, I guess, the festivities that have started around the Super Bowl and continuing through the weekend. How much of a lift do you think that is for the property surrounding the strip?
This is Lorenzo. And I think everybody around here is pretty positive and pretty excited about the Super Bowl event. It feels like it's shaping up to be one of the, if not maybe the best weekend -- biggest weekend from a big event standpoint that Las Vegas has seen, which is obviously quite a statement.We'll say that we're definitely feeling the impact from a regional standpoint, inbound from guests that are coming in, we're seeing it in the hotel side and also on the casino side relative to people wanting to come in for the game. So even more so, obviously, Super Bowl is always a big weekend in Las Vegas. But I would say that this seems to be shaping up to be bigger than a normal Super Bowl weekend for the city and for us per se.
Got it. And then one final question, if I may -- Steve, you mentioned about some disruption in the first half of this year at Palace Station. Can you sort of help us understand and maybe think about an impact there? And was there anything that commenced in the fourth quarter that generated some disruption that obviously we couldn't see in the aggregated reported results?
Joe, this is Scott again. We'll break it down by property. Palace is undergoing around its perimeter -- road work. That road work was expected to be done by the end of the year and it has now been extended into all the way to May based on complications of underground and different scheduling issues. So, we continue to try to mitigate the impacts to Palace, but it is pretty disruptive getting in and out of the property.On another note, as we see this as positive, we continue to reinvest in the properties. We've seen great success with our new high limit rooms and new amenities, and GVR has a slight impact when it comes to the slot high limit room, the table high limit room, which we've opened up the table high limit room, we're a couple of weeks away from opening up the slot high limit room and then offering 2 new restaurants. So, while there is some short-term disruption, the upside is we've been very successful with this formula in other properties like Red Rock. So, we look forward to the upside of that.Same token at Sunset, we basically have gone in, and we're finding huge success in the recent sports book being reformatted to more of a viewer style format than the traditional race and sports book we're about over-the-counter wagering. And so, reconfiguring our race and sports books to be more experiential has been a huge success. So --
Yes. And the great success we've seen at Durango with what we did there and trying to bring Sunset up to that level.
Yes. So, we're investing in a new race and sports book, a new casino bar and new high-limit room area for Sunset. So, in the interim, through the remainder of the spring, we'll be under construction there. We also are adding a yard house restaurant in that expansion and remodel. So, once we get through that, it's going to be a great add to the property.
The next question comes from Carlo Santarelli with Deutsche Bank.
Hey, guys. Understanding you don't want to get into property level metrics. I guess my question was less around numbers and more maybe around experience, so to speak. If you kind of look at your margin profile throughout 2023, from a same-store basis, margins were kind of down in that 100 to 200 basis point range over the 2Q and the 3Q. 4Q actually improved despite the opening. So, is it fair to assume at this stage that kind of in those 27 days, that property, Durango specifically did not necessarily have a meaningful drag on your margins? And is there anything perhaps onetime in nature that we need to be cognizant of as we look out to 2024 as it pertains to the margin profile of that asset?
Look, at Durango, I have to say it's one of the best openings that I've seen in terms of the guest experience. And again, like Scott said, special thanks to the other 6 properties and their executive teams and team members that filled in anywhere and everywhere that needed to make that as great an experience for the customer as possible.It's very difficult at the beginning when we opened Durango. The visitation was off the charts. I mean, it's very hard to keep up and make it a good experience. I think our team did that, while no opening is perfect. This is as close as I've seen to a perfect one. So, take that initial 3 weeks. You have to realize everybody's comment, everybody wants to see it. There's a tremendous amount of trial.And just like we've seen with every other property that we've opened, after that initial wave of the opening, you're going to find out where your natural market settles into, right? And that's the stage that we're in right now. I think we're settling into what is going to be like a base level of business. And then over the next couple of quarters, we're going to start working to get more efficiencies out of that property.But the first focus for us there was to have a smooth opening, have good word of mouth on the street, how people want to go there, and we'll worry about getting the efficiencies over the course of the next 2 to 3 quarters. Do you have anything else to add?
Yes. I would just say, I'll go back to -- Frank said it well, with Durango. I'll just go back to the fundamentals, the kind of the key fundamentals of acquisition cost being very stable in the market. Our cost of goods sold year-over-year in the quarter actually went down. Our labor as a percentage of revenue went down. So, the teams out there at the properties are doing a super job of managing some of the key expense areas. We do still struggle a bit with energy costs. We were up about $1 million in electrical costs for the quarter. But otherwise, as we go forward, absent what Frank said, the base of our expenses looks pretty stable.
And just a quick follow-up on that. Previously, you guys had talked about, given the demographic and the location of the asset, you anticipated the table game side to be a little bit greater of the mix relative to slots than most other properties. Has kind of that held true thus far?
Yes. This is Lorenzo, Carlo. Yes. I mean, I think, if you kind of take a look around the property, I mean, obviously, we said we're super happy with the way things are going. If you ask us, what are we not necessarily surprised about, but maybe a little bit, but the table games business has been -- the drop has been better than we certainly projected.I would say that in addition to that, the customers kind of reaction to overall food and beverage, particularly the food hall has just been a smash grand slam hit so far, doing big volumes, big numbers, as well as people's reaction to the sports book connected to the George restaurant with the indoor-outdoor feature and restaurant basically inside of the sports book. So, people have reacted nicely to the different amenities. But yes, given the demographic in the area, table drop is stronger than we expected initially.
And Carlo, if you can refer to the December market share report to kind of give you an indication on that. That data is never perfect, just given the schedule of drops. You saw that tables outperformed in December.
Yes, no, for sure. It's just with that data sometimes, especially around New Year's -- you have to be kind of careful what you're looking at, but I appreciate that, guys. Thank you very much.
The next question comes from Shaun Kelley with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. Just hoping as you kind of think a little bit forward about the natural maturation curve here, I'm just struggling a little bit to kind of get a sense of did this open better than sort of run rate expectation? Or typically, we would expect the property to build and stabilize over time? And maybe a combination of both. But I guess trajectory-wise, I'm getting -- I'm just getting a few mixed signals, and I'm trying to kind of get my arms around. As both the revenue and the EBITDA contribution of what we're seeing so far [weigh] better, and we expect that to normalize a little bit down? Or actually, is there just an implied ramp up, which I think many of us would expect having both the casino openings in the past? Just any directional help just given, again, the headline results here were excellent and clearly imply some great numbers for the property or the portfolio.
Shaun, I think I'll start and then I'll hand it over to the team. But I think the opening, as Frank said, was pretty damn near close to perfect. I mean -- but we also said our focus was on guest service. Our focus was on execution and the property was overwhelmed at times.And again, as Frank said, the team did a fantastic job. We view this as a 40-year asset. And so right now, as we're starting to find our footing in terms of what's our normal business, we're going to be in there refined tuning Durango to make this the most efficient property that we can. In addition, any of the cannibalization we're expecting to backfill at the core properties, just given the favorable long-term demographic profile in Las Vegas. But we've always said this is a several year ramp to get to stabilization. And so, we think we're well on track to hit that target.
Great. Thanks, Stephen. And maybe just one smaller one, but just sort of like a tactical one around the way preopening works here. Can you just give us a sense, was there some loaded costs in terms of when you typically bring employees on the line, but before the actual opening, did you incur some of those expenses? Or is the expense base really reflective of really just from December 5 on? Or was again, there's some expenses incurred in the quarter prior to opening that might have just in the way that this happens? I think I've seen a little bit of both over the years. I'm just kind of curious on how you did it.
We incurred about $20 million of preopening expenses in Q1 -- excuse me, Q4, again, that was a little bit larger than we anticipated due to the delay. If you recall, we moved the opening from late November to December 5. And so, we had to incur additional preopening expenses. But those are below the line, and we wouldn't expect any going forward with regard to Durango.
But just to be clear, were there any staff costs in that kind of period of buildup as employees are joining in that period that aren't in preopening? Is there some just -- just that initial few weeks beforehand?
Everything is captured in preopening.
Everything is captured in preopening. Okay. Thank you very much. Appreciate that.
The next question comes from Jordan Bender with Citizen JMP. Please go ahead.
Great. Thanks for taking my question. Steve, you kind of alluded to it in some of the prepared remarks, but with free cash flow ramping, you're turning to the special dividend in the first quarter. But you've also talked about debt reduction kind of following the opening of Durango, assuming that you do turn to debt reduction using that free cash flow. Can you maybe give us a perspective of the potential cadence of the reduction until we do hear something further on incremental projects coming from the company? Thank you.
I think the way the Board views this, it's quarter-by-quarter. Like we've always said we're going to have a peak leverage when Durango wraps up, which is around this time, and then we're going to slowly march down toward our long-term target of 3x net.That said, we always said we're going to take a balanced view of returning capital. So, we spent the last 2 years investing in Durango and it's off to a great start. And given the confidence in the business model and the way Durango's going, we felt now is the time to issue a special dividend and balance that --
I think maybe your question was more towards new or additional projects coming online. I think our thoughts are to basically take '24, get Durango, fine-tuned, delever the company, and we're going to be in a position then in '25 to evaluate which new projects we should be bringing online.
Understood. Thanks. And then just on the follow-up, your free cash flow conversion just about 60% for the year. Is that kind of the right level to think about moving forward?
Yes, it is because that's fully loaded. I mean, I think 4Q is a little bit skewed to the higher end because there wasn't any tax payments or estimated tax payments at that quarter.
We have that mandatory debt paydown --
We have mandatory debt pay and maintenance capital.
The next question comes from Steve Wieczynski with Stifel. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hey, guys. Good afternoon. So Steve or Scott, if I could, maybe ask, I mean Durango has been kind of beat dead here a little bit. But if I could ask one more on Durango -- just wondering maybe what new sign-ups for your loyalty program look like relative to your expectations? And I'm just trying to get an idea of how the property has been helping to bring new customers into your ecosystem if all that makes sense?
Yes, for the [ third ] quarter, our new sign-ups are up high single digits for the quarter. And Durango had a -- in the limited time it was open for the quarter, did have a definite impact.
Okay. Thanks. I appreciate that. And then, Steve, look, we fully understand you guys don't provide formal guidance for the year. But as we think about 2024, is there anything we need to be thinking about, whether it's in terms of headwinds or tailwinds for this year or anything that would disrupt the normal cadence for how the year should normally play out? And then maybe also just wondering what you're thinking about for corporate expenses this year?
So to kind of address that. I mean as Scott kind of walked us through some of the construction disruption, both the new amenities at Sunset and Green Valley, as well as [ Endot's ] work at Palace, which will affect us during the first half of the year. And then we, obviously, Durango, we expect to continue to ramp up. As far as corporate, I think roughly around $19 million where we ended up in Q4 is right where I think would be the rest of the year per quarter.
Okay. Perfect. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it.
The next question comes from Barry Jonas with Truist Securities. Please go ahead.
Hey, guys. The culinary union contract renewals saw pretty large increases across the strip. Wondering if that's having any impact on your revenues? And should we expect any indirect pressures on your labor costs? Thanks.
This is Scott. I'll take it and maybe someone else can jump in. Let's start by just saying and reiterating what we've said in the past, we think we're an employer of choice for a lot of reasons. One, because of our culture and two, because of our benefits package, we think it's very competitive in the marketplace. We had a very successful hiring process for Durango. So, we tested that in the market. And we found that our compensation package and benefits was very competitive.That being said, we want to remain competitive. And with the increases that will come with the new contracts, we're definitely going to have to look and make sure that we're competitive. And so there will be some consideration there. But as Steve likes to say all the time, all of those 60,000-plus culinary workers that [ God ] raises are also a lot of them are our customers. So, there's a waterfall effect there that benefits us on the other side.
. And then just for a follow-up. Can you talk a little bit about your Tavern strategy here and how you're thinking about organic growth versus M&A?
Yes. So, Tavern are an interesting new segment that we're looking at. It's a very micro local segment. It's a neighborhood segment. It has a different customer profile that we find attractive. And we find that the investment returns on Taverns is pretty attractive.We have a strategy where we'd like to create penetration in high network, high growth areas of the Valley kind of akin to our large site development strategy. And look, we look at everything, whether that's an acquisition or a ground up or a build-to-suit situation. But we always find that having our own footprint to design a project the way we want it design in the new emerging areas, probably our method of choice. But we'll look at everything that makes sense.
The next question comes from Dan Politzer with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Hey, good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. I was more curious just in general in the market, obviously, a big new property opening, you're going to see a pickup in promotional spend. I guess any detail on what you saw over the course of the quarter and into January and maybe over the past week or so in terms of the market and remaining rational.
This is Scott. It's really a lot more of the same. So, it's stable and you have a pretty rational market. You do have the one-off outliers that have been promotional and remain promotional as a strategy, but there's not been any noticeable change in the market that has affected us.
Got it. And then just for my follow-up. I think you guys have talked about that 20% return on capital getting there for Durango over, I believe the course of 3 years. But given the strength of the opening and the momentum out of the gate, I mean, is there any difference in cadence of how you're thinking about that?And then just along those lines, is there any nuance here in terms of gaming versus non-gaming mix at that property? I just noticed overall for the portfolio; it was a little different than typical seasonality? Thanks.
This is Steve, I think we're -- the ramping profile remains the same. These are very early days. We're very happy with the opening, but there's still a lot of work...
Still settling in.
It's still settling in. In terms of the mix, it should fall -- it should match our system -- our current system mix.
Maybe a little higher gaming...
Higher gaming just given...
Limited hotel rooms.
Understood. Thanks so much.
The next question comes from Stephen Grambling with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Hey, everyone. I'm just going to re-ask a bit on cannibalization comment. I guess any sense for how quickly you think you could backfill? And did you take any actions or feel like you needed to take any actions to offset any of the cannibalization in any of your other properties from an expense standpoint? Or is it just too small?
I think it might be just a little too early. So, we want there to be trial. We want everybody in the valley to come and try out or hang on and see it. What you see typically from our previous openings is you see a very early strong visitation from in-brand customers. But then you tend to see a dip where they go back to their neighbor properties that they're familiar with.So, we're in the throes of kind of understanding what that period is. And then over time, what we've seen in our previous openings is twofold. One, you see the existing property backfill and grow. And we're talking predominantly Red Rock, which is in one of the highest growth areas in the Valley of Summerlin. Master-planned c development is the fourth best master-planned development in the country this year. So Red Rock has its own backfill story.And then the other thing you see is Durango being in a new market that was underpenetrated and lacks additional competition. You're going to see Durango continue to grow its database and the surrounding area over the next 3 years. And really, it never will stop...
I mean -- there's a tremendous amount of new rooftops that will be coming online out there over the next year to 3 years, lots of apartments and everything else. So, we'll see where Durango settles in after a great opening. And then we expect it to be a growth asset for decades to come just to get better. But we're early days right now.
That's helpful. And one other just clarification. You were talking about labor inflation a little bit earlier. I guess when we put it all together and you think about core OpEx growth next year, how would you characterize where you're thinking kind of core OpEx growth ex the kind of moving parts around Durango would be?
Well, I think it's always looking for efficiency, right? It's being -- it's about how we run our business and looking at these core areas. We don't expect to have any real increases in the acquisition cost area. We think we're doing a great job on cost of goods sold, but that's really a daily fight. And then probably the biggest one is just us being very diligent about labor.
And energy costs.
And energy costs, making sure that we're competitive so that we get the best employees in the market. But at the same time, making sure that where we deploy those employees and in what level is efficient for our business.
Great. Thanks so much.
" The next question comes from Chad Beynon with Macquarie. Please go ahead.
Afternoon. Thanks for taking my question and congrats on the strong opening. I wanted to ask, Scott, maybe one for you, just in terms of pacing for '24 for that meeting and banquet space and now that Durango is open and groups can kind of rent that out. How that's looking in terms of what's on the books for '24 overall versus prior periods? Thanks.
Yes. So, I kind of use the benchmark at the same time as last year as a comparison. We like where we're headed. We especially like where we're headed in the first quarter and the fourth quarter of '24 in both group room nights and catering. The summer is a bit soft. We've got some work to do in the summer. But with our booking window being pretty short, we've got time to make that up a bit.And I will caution, they are super strong numbers, but they are not the numbers that we -- coming out of the pandemic that were 60-plus percent year-over-year increases, but they are still very robust for the brand, and we like where we're headed.
Great. Thanks. And then I think you talked about strength across the loyalty database. Did you see any declining weakness for that low-end tier or the unrated business? Or did that remain pretty consistent through the fourth quarter as well?
It's a consistent trend. So, we still see very robust numbers in the mid to higher end, but that's partly our strategy, and we see consistent and stable trends in the lower end of the database.
Great. Thanks. Appreciate it.
The next question comes from Joe Stauffwith Susquehanna. Please go ahead.p id="107587240" name="Joseph Stauff" type="A"
Look, I think you have your peak at the opening, where everyone in town wants to come and see it and you get trial. And I would imagine in Q1 and Q2, we will find out where the market is for Durango. We're settling in to not grand opening volumes anymore. And so, it will take a quarter or 2. And then I think from there, we should start to be able to build new customers and visitation and start growing from there.
Yes, so [ Luiz ]. But relative to your question as well on the second part of it, given the fact that it's right there on the freeway, it should naturally draw from a wider radius than maybe some of our other properties that don't quite have the amount of traffic that, that freeway has. I mean it's one of the busiest kind of loops in the valley because everybody either going to work or coming home from work that lives on the west side of town or from the airport back and forth. I mean they have to drive right by Durango...
But I think if you look at our portfolio, that's one of the great things about our portfolio is location, location, location, right? Look at Red Rock, great location right on the Beltway, you look at Sunset Station, right on the Beltway, Boulder Station right on the beltway. So, I think that's one of the long-term benefits as the town continues to grow as I think we have probably the best traffic ingress, egress, car counts of anyone in the market.
Thank you for that. And Steve, maybe just a quick clarification. On North Fork, that does not require any new capital from the company, correct?
No. We've invested the original capital, which is still sitting there. And it's a $40 million note, but the current balance is about $110 million. We would anticipate raising non-course financing around the project.
Thanks, guys.
Really on the financial market side.
[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from John DeCree with CBRE. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, everyone. Most have been asked and answered, but maybe one more on Durango. And that has given the successful opening that you've talked about, has that influenced or changed how you think about Phase 2 prospects there either in scope or timing? I know it's still only been several weeks, but any thoughts on Phase 2 would be interesting to hear. Thank you.
Yes. Its Lorenzo. I mean, really consistent with what we've communicated before. We're going to get -- obviously, we got Durango open. We're going to continue to dial in the efficiencies of the property. We are certainly working diligently on a Phase 2 plan that we're actually pretty far along on the programming and...
That's more...
Putting on the finer details of adding some entertainment is potentially adding to the number of hotel rooms, adding a couple more food and beverage options as well. And then we're also pretty far along as far as the initial planning for [ Inspirada ], which is out in Green Valley and. North Fork. And actually, we're fast and furious working on North Fork as well. So, we've got plenty on our hands right now actively being worked on from a development standpoint. But like I said, we're going to get Durango dialled in before we announce kind of what the next move is. But the good thing is the company has more optionality from a growth standpoint with deals and pieces of real estate that we control. We can bring online whenever we think it fits, but really consistent with where we've been in the past. So, we're just - more to come as we kind of have a little bit more time under our belt with Durango.
Perfect. Thanks so much, guys and congratulations on the opening.
Thank you.
This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Stephen Cootey for any closing remarks.
Thank you, everyone, for joining us, and we look forward to talking to you next quarter. Take care.
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.