Reynolds Consumer Products Inc

NASDAQ:REYN

Earnings Call Analysis

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q3

[Operator]

Greetings, and welcome to the Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mark Swartzberg, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you, sir. You may begin.

[Mark Swartzberg, executive]

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and thank you for joining us for Reynolds Consumer Products Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Please note that this call is being webcast on the Investor Relations section of our corporate site at reynoldsconsumerproducts.com. Our earnings press release and presentation slides are also available.

With me on the call today are Lance Mitchell, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Scott Huckins, our Chief Financial Officer; and Nathan Lowe, Senior Vice President and Head of Financial Planning and Analysis. Following prepared remarks, we will open the call for a brief question-and-answer session.

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this morning's discussion will contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks, uncertainties and changes in circumstances that could cause actual results and outcomes to differ materially from those described today. Please refer to the Risk Factors section in our SEC filings. The company does not intend to update or alter these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances arising after the call.

During today's call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP or adjusted financial measures. Reconciliations of these GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures are available in our earnings press release, investor presentation deck and Form 10-Q, which can be found on the Investor Relations section of our site.

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Lance.

[Lance Mitchell, executive]

Thank you, Mark, and good morning, everyone. Our business is performing well, and we are investing in new products, new business wins and new cost savings opportunities to drive sustained long-term profitable growth.

Turning to the quarter, demand in our categories improved modestly by comparison to first half performance. Our retail volume was unchanged and in line with our categories after adjusting for product portfolio optimization and shipment timing as we covered on the Q2 call. We commercialized innovation across our categories, expanded our innovation pipeline, and drove increased awareness among the younger consumers.

We identified and delivered further Reyvolution cost savings. And we demonstrated the value of our diversified business and product portfolio, delivering revenue and earnings in line with our expectations while continuing to work to drive improved revenues and profitability in our tableware business.

Before reviewing each of our businesses, I want to remind you of some of the factors positioning RCP for sustained and attractive long-term growth. Our products are well known, affordable and convenient. We are effectively leveraging our business model to drive our categories and develop new business in partnership with our retail customers. We are successfully introducing new products to drive share. And as I mentioned, our pipeline is only getting stronger, including an expanding range of affordable, sustainable solutions.

We're commercializing scientific advances and consumer insights acquired through the sustained investment in R&D, including last year's purchase of Atacama Manufacturing. And we're reducing operational costs and identifying significant additional Reyvolution cost savings, providing additional resources or earnings growth.

Our tableware business unit as a focus for many of you as it is for us, so I'll speak to that first. The tableware business unit reported a volume and earnings decline primarily driven by lower foam plate volume and increased promotional spending. These decreases were largely driven by recent legislative changes in several states, consumers shifting towards more sustainable offerings and reduction of retailers' foam plate inventories. Volume for the rest of our tableware business was up modestly and continue to outperform its categories, further demonstrating the effectiveness of the price pack architecture and promotional strategies that we initiated at the beginning of the year. We expect foam trends to remain a headwind over the near term and have a record of successfully responding to volume declines within our tableware business.

As we reviewed earlier this year at our Investor Day, we fully offset the double-digit foam volume decline between 2019 and 2023 with growth of other disposal tableware products over that period. A number of factors underlie our confidence in our ability to continue building upon our success repositioning our tableware business for growth. We offer a wide range of branded and store brand sustainable solutions, not only in plates, but across disposable tableware. And even expanding our new product pipeline, emphasizing not only sustainability, including the leveraging of technology acquired in the Atacama acquisition, but also other drivers, including function, fund and affordability.

And we're commercializing scientific advancements and consumer insights through investments in R&D. Our third quarter results highlight pressure on a portion of our teamwork portfolio, but this business has excellent potential as we demonstrated by effectively managing product life cycles and our new product pipeline and capabilities are strong.

The Reynolds Cooking & Baking business delivered another solid quarter and outlook remain strong. Reynolds Wrap gained additional share in household foil. Reynolds Kitchens Parchment continue to grow, reflecting strong innovation and significant distribution gains. We recently received new findings on several years of increased and targeted work to build brand equity with our consumers. And I'm pleased to report that unaided awareness of Reynolds Wrap Foil and Reynolds Kitchens Parchment among Millennials and Gen Z has grown strong double digits since 2021, our baseline period of measure.

And in the area of operations, we are building on operational reliability and consistency, and implementing new programs to achieve increased production efficiencies.

Turning to Hefty Waste & Storage and Presto. Our Waste & Storage business continued to perform well in the quarter, and the outlook for these businesses is strong. Recent waste bag share trends can be difficult to interpret due to our competitor's cyber incident last year, but the data is clear. Hefty share of waste bags is above 2022 levels, and the Hefty Waste & Storage business unit delivered record quarterly revenue in the third quarter.

In food bags, where we have built a majority share position in store brand food bags, the volume in the store brands grew 2% in the quarter. And in the area of product innovation, Hefty Fabuloso waste bags achieved $200 million in annual sales in the quarter, setting with stage for a rollout of Hefty Fabuloso Watermelon, which is tested well with younger consumers and is launching nationally early next year.

Hefty Press to Close bags continue to build awareness of loyalty as a more affordable branded food bag and is also rolling out nationally in partnership with major retailers next year. And waste and food bags categories continue to benefit from our standing range of sustainable solutions.

Before turning the call over to Scott, I want to note the devastation that so many in the Southeast are experiencing from hurricanes, Milton and Helene. Reynolds Consumer Products continues to support relief offers by donating Hefty trash bags and tableware products to the American Red Cross, who distributes these products to families recovering from these hurricanes and other disasters. Please Join us in supporting the American Red Cross online at redcross.org.

As I said in my opening remarks, our business is performing well overall, and we're investing in our categories, product innovation, new business wins and significant incremental Reyvolution cost savings to drive sustained and attractive long-term growth.

Scott, over to you.

[Scott Huckins, executive]

Thank you, Lance. Good morning, everyone. We delivered on the financial priorities we set at the start of 2024, again, in the third quarter, driving our categories, earnings and cash flow while also reducing leverage and increasing financial flexibility.

Our Q3 results were in line with our expectation that's coming into the quarter with the exception of non-retail revenues, which exceeded our expectations by approximately $10 million. As a reminder, we estimated $15 million of revenues were pulled forward into Q2 from Q3 as contemplated in our guidance.

Total revenues of $910 million in the third quarter were at the upper end of our guide and consisted of $856 million in retail revenues and $54 million of non-retail revenues. Third quarter adjusted EBITDA increased $6 million to $171 million, driven by lower operational and SG&A costs, partially offset by lower revenues. Earnings per share were $0.41, up 11% from the third quarter of 2023, reflecting EBITDA growth and lower interest expense from paying down debt. Cash conversion remained strong with free cash flow of $93 million for the quarter. As a result of our strong profitability and balance sheet discipline, we continue to reduce net debt leverage now at 2.3x trailing 12 months adjusted EBITDA as of Q3.

And we made an additional $50 million voluntary principal payments subsequent to quarter end, which makes this our third prepayment of the year totaling $150 million year-to-date.

Before turning to our year-to-date results and guide, I want to provide you with additional detail on tableware. As Lance said, tableware's third quarter revenues were driven by lower foam plate volume and lower pricing resulting from increased promotion. However, the volume of other disposable tableware categories continued to respond well to our price pack architecture initiatives increasing modestly and outperforming its categories by nearly 1 point.

Tableware profits declined by an amount similar to the revenue decline driven by lower revenue and increases in operational costs. We expect foam plate volumes to remain an increased headwind for a period of time due to legislative and consumption changes in several states. However, as Lance also pointed out, this business has great potential as we have a clear record of successfully repositioning tableware for growth, and we are doing the work to build on our success in offsetting declines in a portion of our portfolio.

For the year-to-date Q3 results, retail revenues were $2.544 billion while low-margin non-retail revenues decreased to $131 million. Adjusted EBITDA of $465 million increased $67 million from the year ago period, driven by higher manufacturing output and lower operational costs, partially offset by lower net revenues and increased advertising investments. Earnings per share were $1.10, up 43% from $0.77 in the same period of 2023, driven by higher adjusted EBITDA and lower interest expense. As a reminder, we had a nonrecurring tax benefit in the second quarter of $0.05 per share.

Now turning to our guidance. To reflect the stronger-than-expected third quarter non-retail revenues, we are slightly increasing our full year 2024 net revenue outlook to a range of $3.620 billion to $3.660 billion compared to revenue of $3.756 billion in 2023. As part of this guide, we continue to expect a 1 point reduction from pricing, which includes certain interactional pass-throughs. We expect a minus. 0.5 point to a plus 0.5 point impact from retail volume, which is unchanged at the midpoint, and in line with or better than our categories. This tightens the range by 100 basis points compared with our prior guidance. We now expect a combined 2-point headwind for our non-retail business and the optimization of our retail product portfolio, slightly stronger than our prior outlook. We plan to continue leading our categories and perform at or more better than our categories.

We are updating our full year adjusted EBITDA guidance range to $673 million to $683 million, representing a 7% increase to over $636 million in 2023. And we anticipate our full year 2024 earnings per share to be within the range of $1.66 to $1.70 per share.

Other considerations incorporated into our full year 2024 forecast are as follows: increased rates for certain commodities, which, in the case of aluminum and key resins are now priced 10% to 15% above January 2024 levels. SG&A is expected to remain materially unchanged compared to SG&A in 2023. Our depreciation and amortization assumption is approximately $125 million. Interest expense continues to be estimated at approximately $100 million. And our estimated full year effective tax rate remains just over 22%, which includes the onetime tax benefit of $0.05 per share in the second quarter.

Turning to the fourth quarter. We expect Q4 net revenue in the range of $945 million to $985 million versus $1.07 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023. The assumptions include a 2-point reduction due to pricing, a 1 point reduction to a 3-point increase from retail volume, reflecting sequentially improving retail volume, and a 3-point reduction attributed to non-retail volume and the optimization of the retail product portfolio. We forecast fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA in a range of $208 million to $218 million, net income to be in the range of $117 million to $125 million, and earnings per share in a range of $0.56 to $0.60. As we said when reporting first and second quarter results, we expect the quarterly contribution of EBITDA to return to historical averages in 2024.

As a reminder, we anticipate an approximately $10 million increase in combined costs to negatively impact our fourth quarter results, reflecting a flow-through of aluminum purchased during the second quarter, and premiums paid for cooking bags as we transition to in-sourcing this product offering.

In terms of capital allocation, our priorities are unchanged, and we continue to drive cash flow and plan to invest in strategic opportunities. As you may have seen, we extended and upsized our revolving credit facility earlier this month to better align with companies that have similarly strong credit characteristics. We replaced an undrawn $250 million revolving credit facility with an undrawn $700 million revolving credit facility maturing in October 2029. Our term loan facility under the credit agreement continues to mature in February 2027, and we are actively monitoring market conditions for a potential refinancing of this facility on the basis of our strong cash flow profile and improved credit metrics.

Our program of debt reduction translates into further declines in quarterly interest expense, assuming no change to interest rates, while also increasing our ability to invest in attractive organic and inorganic opportunities to drive earnings growth and returns on invested capital.

In closing, as Lance mentioned, our business model remains a competitive advantage. Our product portfolio and business is diversified, and we are doing the work to build on our history of successfully repositioning tableware for growth. We are driving our categories and investing in an expanding range of new products. We are adding new programs to our strong pipeline of Reyvolution cost synergies, and we are driving cash flow and strengthening our balance sheet, providing us with additional resources and flexibility to drive attractive long-term growth and value creation.

With that, I will turn the call back over to Lance.

[Lance Mitchell, executive]

Thank you, Scott. I'm pleased to announce the next step in the history of leadership of RCP.

As you can see from this morning's press release, Scott will succeed me as President and Chief Executive Officer of Reynolds Consumer Products, and Nathan Lowe, currently Head of Financial Planning and Analysis, will succeed Scott as Chief Financial Officer. Both changes are effective January 1 of next year, and I will continue in an advisory role until the planned transition of responsibilities to Scott and Nathan is complete.

I'm extremely proud of all those we have achieved. Since my joining Reynolds Consumer Products as President and CEO 14 years ago, when we formed RCP through a combination of acquisitions, we've accomplished a lot over this period, successfully making safety our #1 priority, developing and implementing our business model of category leadership by providing brands and store brands, which has proven to be a competitive advantage. Expanding our new product pipeline, making our category stronger while also driving share. Consistently delivering Reyvolution cost savings while also identifying and unlocking significant additional savings opportunities.

And most importantly, building a culture of collaboration through diversity, listening and teamwork that is creative, hard-working and committed to winning every day in close partnership with our retail customers. As I said, this announcement is part of a planned transition and now is the right time for its implementation. Our business is strong and performing very well, on track to delivering its second best year of earnings since going public. A period including 2020, which was exceptionally strong because of the pandemic. Succession planning is an area of strength for RCP and Scott and Nathan are highly qualified for these roles.

I'm pleased that so many of you have gotten to know Scott since his joining RCP, and that you've interacted with Nathan in the days leading up to and since our listing as a publicly traded company. I look forward to working with each of you in the coming months and I'm confident in seamless transitions.

This will be my last quarterly earnings call as President and CEO of RCP. It's been a pleasure working with so many of you since our IPO in 2020. A sincere thank you to the 6,000 RCP employees that have made the last 14 years rewarding both professionally and personally. I thank you to all of our retail partners. You have challenge us each day to be a better, stronger supplier to you and consumers. And thank you for all of you that call into these quarterly earnings releases. As you know, we take time and care preparing for these meetings, and we appreciate you taking the time to listen and for your interest in RCP.

Since the leadership changes are scheduled to take effect January 1 of next year, we would ask that you would direct your questions to Scott and me during this call. Operator, over to you for questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Our first question will be coming from the line of Nik Modi with RBC Capital Markets.

[Nik Modi, analyst]

Lance, Scott, Nathan, congratulations. And specifically to you, Lance, I don't know if you know this, but you have doubled the average tenure of a CEO. So congratulations. I really enjoyed working with you.

On to my question, if you think about the overall environment, I'd love to understand how you guys are thinking about the holiday season, which is obviously a very important period for the company. And it's just the interplay between what is happening broadly in the economy and is out-of-home into home migration. I would love to get your perspective on those dynamics for the fourth quarter.

[Lance Mitchell, executive]

Thank you, Nik, and thank you for that compliment. I'm well aware of the fact that I've extended the tenure of an average CEO and I'm ready to retire.

The state of the consumer remains challenged. But as we talked about in the Q2 earnings call, we have the plans and promotions and new product innovations in place for a strong holiday season. We're very confident in our guide that we just announced and from our retail partners and their confidence in the holiday season. So what we're seeing so far is very positive and still early. But as you can guess, we do get early reads on what the holiday season looks like and it's positive for 2024.

[Operator]

Our next question is from the line of Andrea Teixeira with JPMorgan.

[Andrea Teixeira, analyst]

And Lance, it was a pleasure also interacting with you, and thank you for educating us on -- since the IPO, and wishing you a great new chapter in your life and also congratulations to Scott and Nathan.

Now my question is on down trade that we have been seeing in general. I think it's probably your RGM at play here, which obviously you have your private label offering, and you also have price points that allow for that. So I was wondering if you can help us kind of parse out that impact and see if there is any additional movements that you see? Or if you -- into 2025, we are mostly done or lapped into that price point situation?

And similarly for tableware, you're being very upfront since the IPO about the foam issue, right? So in general, some of the municipalities have been switching out. I was wondering if you also can give us like a bit of a time frame and now how much is your tableware? Is dependent upon that foam? And if that's the case, how you're planning to continue to get ahead of it before having that impact and potentially a lot of promo related to that foam.

[Lance Mitchell, executive]

Well, I'll start, and I'll let Scott elaborate on it. First, regarding the down trade in private label. Private label category shares are back to 2019 levels. On a year-over-year basis, private label share is up in some categories and down in some others, and we're influencing and responding to these changes very effectively. As we talked about over the years, two things: one, our business model is a competitive advantage by doing both brands and store brands. And secondly, these categories are highly penetrated by private label already. So we don't see significant shifts occurring year-over-year between brands and private label.

On tableware, the foam trend is one that we have been seeing since 2019, as we indicated in the prepared remarks, we have very specific plans and new product development and continue work across the portfolio to ensure growth in the overall tableware business. Scott?

[Scott Huckins, executive]

I would just add to that, Andrea, in terms of the foam topic in tableware broadly, it's really the tale of two portfolios, the foam category is declining. So resourcing and focus on costs in our execution of that category would make sense. On the other hand, we have a lot of innovation, growth and outperformance of the comparative categories away from foam. Again, the imperative there will be a resource and invest for that growth.

[Andrea Teixeira, analyst]

How much -- and that's helpful. How much do you still have as a total form of foam within your tableware sales?

[Scott Huckins, executive]

We don't share SKU level detail, as you might imagine, given the competitive sensitivity of it. I'm certainly willing to share, it's the minority of the portfolio, but that's about as far as I think we can go.

[Operator]

Our next question come from the line of Mark Astrachan with Stifel.

[Mark Astrachan, analyst]

I guess it's still pretty early on from a '25 planning standpoint, but maybe trying to approach the question that you're not going to answer in a different way. How do we think about -- or how are you thinking about just consumer demand kind of as we sit here today, you talked encouragingly about holiday retail volumes have accelerated through '24? So I guess kind of puts and takes there in terms of just broad strokes, how you're thinking about the consumers as we head into the '25.

And then the other question relates more to commodities. Aluminum has really moved up here, I think, more than many had expected. How do you think about that from here? And including if it stays here, do you have to take more pricing? Can you offset that in other ways from a cost pressure perspective?

[Lance Mitchell, executive]

I'll take the category and consumer question. I'll turn the commodity question over to Scott. We are seeing a bit of improvement in category volumes in Q3 versus the first half, and that included the added pressure of foam plates. What tells us the category price and volume has come at a better balance than at the start of the year. And the shift to at-home consumption continues to be a modest tailwind for our categories. Our Q4 guidance assumes a category forecast improvement from where we've seen Q3. And we've seen retail adjusted volume for shipment and timing portfolio optimization improve compared to the first half performance. So overall, sequentially, quarter-to-quarter, we're seeing modest improvement across most of our categories.

[Scott Huckins, executive]

I'll offer a couple of comments and thoughts on commodities. The first would be on aluminum, noted that we've seen escalation. We don't see a fundamental supply and demand imbalance. So we'll see if this is transitory or it stick for a period of time. The thoughts on how to manage the commodities are a few. One is aluminum is a traded exchange. So we look at and periodically execute caps, collars, those sorts of hedging tools or cost control tools.

Number two, we also work with our vendors to attempt to have, for example, semiannual price structures rather than monthly settlements. That may not change the cost per se, but it allows for more, call it, control of those costs over a period of time.

And third would be and will always be our ongoing focus on Reyvolution to continue to drive costs of our business. And of course, the last lever is pricing, recognizing that pricing also comes with an imperative of making sure we're thinking about price gaps elasticity. So I think that's the lineup against potential volatility in commodities.

[Mark Astrachan, analyst]

Got it. That's helpful. And then just on the credit facility, and the upsizing there and thoughts on what to potentially use it for, if anything, I suppose it's also sort of related to leverage continuing to fall here. So your balance sheet is probably in a better position than it's been in a really, really long time. Would that potentially change sort of the combination of the two as you look at more transformative M&A? Are you happy with your categories of present? Any update there?

[Lance Mitchell, executive]

I think you're asking about the size of the revolver, if I heard you right?

[Mark Astrachan, analyst]

Both that and the fact that leverage on the balance sheet as it stands today is much lower than it's been.

[Lance Mitchell, executive]

Yes. Okay. And so the thought on the revolver, we looked very carefully across the marketplace for similarly situated companies, meaning size and profitability. And the conclusion is kind of a 1x EBITDA threshold for revolver sizing is quite consistent. That was the main thought behind it. And of course, extending that maturity for 5 years. On the leverage front, again, we're pleased that the cash flow profile of the company is performing very much as we outlined at Investor Day, and we have consistently said all year long, north of $300 million of free cash flow, which is at the sphere of 50% free cash flow-through. And again, much like we talked about.

So at 2.3x, we keep going back to the same framework we talked about, which is capital allocation has three levers. Internal or organic investment back into the company, emphasis on both productivity investments and emphasis on innovative investments. Number two, of course, would be inorganic or M&A opportunities outside the company. And then the third would be return of capital to shareholders. So I think the key point there is, we believe that the right way to do that is each of those three can be for capital on a returns basis. So that's philosophy or that framework continues.

[Operator]

Our next questions are from the line of Jim Abbott with Barclays.

[James Abbott, analyst]

I wanted to touch on maybe keeping with the commodities and input costs. Back in late August, we got some news on some Canadian tariffs on Chinese aluminum. I think your Canada business is quite small, but wondering what maybe the competitive impact of that would be? And more generally, should tariffs become more prevalent ahead of or after the election next week, how might that impact competitive more broadly in the U.S.?

[Lance Mitchell, executive]

Jim, first of all, the Canadian tariff itself on aluminum has a de minimis impact to Reynolds Consumer Products. But all of us have a lot to learn about the tariff environment as it develops in the coming months. We're staying very close to it, and we'll see how it develops. But we have had experience in managing through tariff challenges successfully over the last several years.

[James Abbott, analyst]

Got it. And then just one other quick question, if I can. The legislation you're talking about in foam plate, can you expand on what exactly that is? And if legislation risk is potential or has potential in other categories?

[Lance Mitchell, executive]

Yes. Some states and localities have banned the sale of foam, primarily in the West and the Northeast. Those are areas that are the lower foam use or most of the foam used in the middle of the country, and those remain in place without legislation.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Our next question is from the line of Robert Ottenstein with Evercore.

[Robert Ottenstein, analyst]

And Lance, you'll be sorely missed. Scott, Nathan, congratulations.

I'd like to focus on the waste bag business. And I know that there's a lot of noise in the scanner data, and you mentioned easy comps for your competitor. But at least just kind of based on the most recent scanner. It does look like, just in the data that we see, that you may be losing a little bit of market share, again, based on the numbers and that your competitor may be increasing promos. So love to get your thoughts if there's been any kind of change in the competitive environment there? Or is this just kind of statistical noise here?

And then somewhat related to that. You mentioned higher resin prices. Can you talk a little bit about when that will hit the P&L and how you're thinking about offsetting them?

[Lance Mitchell, executive]

Thanks, Robert. Thank you for that compliment. I'll take the first part of the question, which is the waste bag business and turn over the resin pricing to Scott from a commodity cost standpoint.

Our waste bag business is doing well. As I mentioned in the prepared remarks, the Hefty Waste & Storage business achieved record quarterly revenue in the third quarter. And our share is above 2022 levels. So at this point, we're reading at statistical anomalies occurring right now because of the comparison period. We believe the factor is contributing to our gains over the years, the brand equity, our strategy and pricing, our product strength and reliability. And most importantly, our innovation will continue to drive the brand and we're investing in all of those.

So it's also worth to note, as I talked about in our Q2 earnings call that our total points of distribution have also increased for Hefty Waste Bags. So we're very confident in the trends that we've had for the last 8 years and Hefty Waste Bags will continue. And right now we've got some comparison points in the numbers and statistics that are making it very difficult to read.

[Scott Huckins, executive]

On the commodity question, I think you asked about resin flow through to P&L. I would say typically, we would see changes in those underlying prices of resin flow to the P&L, say, in 3 to 4 months. When we assessed our Q4 guide, of course, we contemplated that. And then in terms of the tools, as I mentioned in a previous question, really in the short term, it's Reyvolution savings is our target focus to offset those headwinds. I think that will remain the case.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Our next question come from the line of Peter Grom with UBS.

[Peter Grom, analyst]

Lance, Scott, Nathan, congratulations to you all. I just wanted a question on kind of category trends. And I know there were a lot of moving pieces this quarter, shipment timing. But when you think about the retail volume performance in the quarter, maybe just touch on where things came in better, and maybe where were things more challenged?

And then as a follow-up to that, maybe asking Nik's question earlier, but just a bit differently. Just as we think about the 4Q guidance, it's still pretty wide range as it relates to retail volume. So maybe can you just help frame the assumptions that would put you at the higher end versus the lower end in the fourth quarter here?

[Lance Mitchell, executive]

Well, as I mentioned in our prepared remarks, and I talked about some of the other Q&A, our category growth rates have been sequentially improving. They do vary depending on the specific category with a range of growth rates that are really very comparable to other household categories and stable. So we're seeing much of the same trends. A lot of other products in our proverbial aisle are also same in household staple standpoint, but eventual improvement quarter-to-quarter despite pressure on the consumers. And was the second part of the question?

[Scott Huckins, executive]

I think you're asking about just sort of the pacing range at the guide. I think, the first place to start is just a reminder, we look at underlying retail volumes about flat for the full year, net of the effect of about 1 point of a product portfolio optimization. As I think we've said all along, we see slight improvements sequentially quarter-by-quarter. So the center cut of the guide for Q4 would be, again, a bit of a sequential pickup to plus 1. And that's how we've been thinking about it all year and it's generally developed about like we thought.

[Operator]

Our next question is from the line of Brian McNamara with Canaccord Genuity.

[Brian McNamara, analyst]

With weaker restaurant traffic and more meals consumed at home given the macro environment, I guess, we were a bit surprised that retail volumes weren't little bit better in Reynolds Cooking & Baking specifically. I understand you expect further category improvement in Q4, but are there any dynamics there worth pointing out, whether it be timing or something else?

[Scott Huckins, executive]

Let me start. Lance may add on. It's a good question. I think one of the things that's affecting what we saw in the Q3 plan was the estimated $15 million of retail volumes pulled forward from Q2 to Q3 has a bit to do with retailer promo timing, so I think that's really probably the biggest explanatory variable on the print.

[Lance Mitchell, executive]

And I did mention it in my prepared remarks that we are seeing a modest increase from at-home consumption, and I talked a little bit about what we're seeing from a holiday standpoint, which will also contribute to that.

[Brian McNamara, analyst]

Understood. And then at Investor Day back in March, I think the company expressed a belief that its categories will return to kind of low single-digit volume growth next year. Would the company expecting to outperform? Does that remain the expectation here given the management change and things like that, anything we should be aware of?

[Lance Mitchell, executive]

Yes. I think the commentary that we had offered is that the long-term algorithm would be low single-digit growth. I think here in October '24, we're not prepared to speak yet specifically to 2025. But you're correct. in what we think of as the underlying category growth for the algorithm.

[Operator]

At this time, we have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'll turn the floor back to Lance Mitchell for closing remarks.

[Lance Mitchell, executive]

I'll just close by saying thank you to everybody. As I said earlier, we take a lot of time preparing our prepared remarks as well as preparing for Q&A. We really appreciate the time that you take to listen and ask the questions. And I will tell you, this being my last earnings call, it's bittersweet to say thank you for your interest in RCP, and thank you for listening in today.

[Operator]

This will conclude today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines at this time.