RealReal Inc
NASDAQ:REAL
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RealReal Inc
Earnings Call Analysis
Summary
Q3-2023
Looking ahead, the company aims to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA by 2024 amidst some prevailing market uncertainties. They carried out a rate card change in November and permanently reduced the proportion of total revenue coming from the direct business, signaling an improvement in gross margins. Expected normal gross margins are in the low 70s percent range. Executives are optimistic about future income streams and virtual inventory, enhancing the core business. Predicting low double-digit growth around 10%, they project ongoing improvements in the first half of 2023 will enhance the full year's impact in 2024.
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Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to The RealReal Q3 2023 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would like to introduce your host for today's call, Caitlin Howe, SVP of Finance. Please go ahead.
Thank you, operator. Joining me today to discuss our results for the period ended September 30, 2023, our Chief Executive Officer; John Koryl, President and Chief Operating Officer; Rati Levesque, and Chief Financial Officer, Robert Julian.
Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during today's call, we will make forward-looking statements, which involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Our actual results may differ materially from those suggested in such statements. You can find more information about these risks, uncertainties and other factors that could affect our operating results in the company's most recent Form 10-K and subsequent quarterly reports on Form 10-Q.
Today's presentation will also include certain non-GAAP financial measures, both historical and forward-looking for which historical financial measures we have provided reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures in our earnings press release. In addition to the earnings press release, we issued a stockholder letter earlier today, both of which are available on our Investor Relations website.
I would now like to turn the call over to John Koryl, Chief Executive Officer of The RealReal.
Thanks, Caitlin, and welcome to our earnings call. Today, we reported financial results for the third quarter of 2023. Revenue and adjusted EBITDA exceeded the high end of our Q3 guidance range and GMV exceeded the midpoint of our guidance range. The third quarter of 2023 was our best quarter of adjusted EBITDA and the company's IPO in 2019. The improvement in our financial performance was largely driven by the consignor commission structure update we made late last year. Our strategic decision to reduce direct revenue and continued improvements in operational efficiency.
If you recall, we overhauled our consignor rate card in November of 2022. This change helped us to do a couple of things. First, we were able to limit lower-priced items, which in turn reduced our variable costs and improved our contribution margin per item. Second, on the remaining portion of the lower value items and our mid-value items, we increased our take rate.
You can see the impact of this change flowing through our P&L. The result in Q3 was that we grew consignment revenue by 10%, while we purposely limited direct revenue, which over the course of the past few quarters has dramatically shifted the mix of our business and driven significantly higher gross margins.
Finally, our operations team in our authentication centers delivered efficiencies through improved processes. In Q3, these actions combined to deliver a higher average order value, higher gross margin rate, higher gross profit dollars, lower variable costs, reduced company-owned inventory and a significantly improved adjusted EBITDA results compared to the prior year.
Over the past few quarters, we have made significant changes to our business strategy and tactics, and we are seeing the benefits of these changes in our operational and financial results. I couldn't be more proud of this team for the fantastic work they have put together throughout this year.
In September, we announced that Robert Julian will step down from his role as CFO at the end of January or when a new CFO assumes the position. As a result, this will likely be Robert's last earnings call. I want to personally thank Robert for his many contributions to the business and wish him the best in his future endeavors. I am pleased to report that the search for replacement is well underway.
Looking forward, we continue to project that we are on track to deliver positive adjusted EBITDA on a full year basis in 2024.
In summary, our strategic shift to refocus on higher-margin portion of the consignment business is delivering significant progress in our results. Overall, I'm excited about the trajectory of our business. We are well positioned to capitalize on our consignment business model as we continue to be the market-making leader in luxury resale.
With that, let's open the call for questions.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Mark Altschwager from Baird. [Operator Instructions].
And our next question comes from Marvin Fong from BTIG.
Great -- so I guess I'd just like to start with maybe just drilling a little bit deeper. Maybe you could just give us an update on the new revenue streams. So for example, I believe this past quarter, you tested advancing some of those initiatives like increasing traffic and things like that.
So maybe you could just kind of give us a an update on where things stand in terms of advertising and maybe the partnership strategy.
Yes. Marvin, thanks for the question. I'll start with that one. From an advertising perspective, in Q3, all we did was really, we launched in July, and we did a lot of experimentation. It's still not any material results in Q3 whatsoever. And we have yet to launch warranty, return insurance as well. We're looking more towards Q4 for both of those.
And then what we referred to in past conversations as virtual inventory. That is actually not planned to launch or make any material impact until 2024. So if you really look at it, this is a story that is all 100% about our core business and in getting our core business where we want it to be and building from that position of strength.
Terrific. And maybe just as a follow-up. I mean it looks like in reflection of all the improvements you guys made also ops and tech costs was down quite a bit, even though orders, I think, was up sequentially a little bit. So it sounds like you're processing orders at a lower cost per order.
Just could you just kind of drill down into that a little bit further? I mean, is there more that you can do there in terms of automation or whatnot? Or should we kind of think about you having to kind of achieved your cost objectives there?
Marvin, this is Robert. I'll take that one. And you're right, we have seen very considerable efficiency and productivity in our operations, including in tech. We've invested a lot in new technology and automation and so on, and you're seeing it in our results.
I don't know if there's another huge step function improvement from where we're at. We're always looking for productivity and efficiency. We've talked about in the past that 3% to 5% of productivity is a reasonable range, and we'll always be driving for that sort of in the spirit of continuous improvement. But you're right. We have seen good efficiency and productivity, and we've seen the results of the investments we've made.
Okay. Great. And good luck on your next endeavor. .
And our next question comes from Mark Altschwager from Baird. .=
Can you hear me all right?
Sure can.
Wonderful. And Robert, best wishes to you. .
Thanks, Mark. .
So I wanted to ask about active buyer growth that did decelerate this quarter, I think close to flat or up 1% year-over-year. I know that is a metric that has been positive in recent quarters and cited as perhaps evidence that the resale buyer isn't slowing down. So I guess a couple of things. One, are you surprised by the trends? And maybe can you elaborate on any changes in buyer behavior that you're seeing?
And two, any implications regarding how you're planning 2024 and the level of profitability you expect to achieve, given some of the shifts that are happening there?
Yes. Mark, I'm going to take the first part of the answer, and I'll pass it along. So as far as active buyers are concerned, we did see a meaningful deceleration, but it was also expected. So remember, the changes we made in the back half of 2022, we're purposely decelerating our growth and shrinking kind of those unprofitable categories and those unprofitable units. .
So a lot of those items under $100 and some of that volume and category. So again, it was expected that we would shrink our active buyers and again, driven out of that low value.
Mark and the other thing -- this is Caitlin. The other thing that I would just add is one of the other metrics that we look at, the health of the business is just new members, right? And so that was up again, $1 million versus last quarter. And so we feel good, like we still have momentum in the business. And so as Rati mentioned, the active buyers piece was something that we did expect in the near term.
And Mark, you did ask at the very end of your question about how that might impact our expectations for 2024. And I would just say that we continue to reiterate that we're on track to being positive adjusted EBITDA in 2024, all things considered.
Yes. And just to add on a little more to that, we're looking at to Calin's point, the health of the business as far as the quality of those buyers, how much are they spending? What are they looking at? Mid and high value and so forth. There's other metrics we can look at there as far as the health of the buyer.
Okay. And as a quick follow-up, and apologies if I missed that, I was redialing in during the first question. But just regarding the Q4 outlook, you essentially held the EBITDA guide, while the GMV and sales are a bit below what was implied in the prior outlook.
Was hoping you could unpack that a bit more and just in terms of the unchanged EBITDA, how much of that is some incremental cost efficiencies you're finding versus any shifts in revenue mix or other factors?
Mark, this is Robert. I'll take that. And I would just say that our guide for Q4, there is a certain amount of uncertainty in the markets today. And there's a lot going on globally, geopolitically with the economy. And so we're just being a little bit prudent and cautious, I would say, in taking that all into account. .
There's nothing in our expected results for Q4 that indicates some kind of change in trend or any backtracking or anything else that might be negative other than just a little bit of uncertainty and we'll see how things progress. But just, again, trying to be prudent in taking all of that into account.
But the things that have improved our results and you saw in Q3 are expected to continue. and they're largely structural of what you've seen in our results in Q3. And so there's nothing to be gleaned or nothing you hit in terms of the Q4 results in terms of that progression going from Q3 to Q4.
And our next question comes from Ike Boruchow from Wells Fargo.
A couple of quick questions for me. Congrats on the gross margin this quarter, above 70%, that's great to see. Is that -- I know there's some seasonality, but now that you've kind of improved the efficiencies in the business and got the gross margins up there. Is that a run rate we should use? I think 3 months ago, you said you thought you could get to the high 60s exiting the year. Just kind of curious how we should think about gross margin in the fourth quarter?
And then my second question is, another reiteration of the adjusted EBITDA profitable by next year. just be helpful if there's any APIs, you can kind of give us that underpin that, whether it's AOV or gross margin? Or just anything to kind of help us understand what's underpinning that assumption that you guys continue to reiterate.
Ike, this is Robert. I'll take that. Regarding the gross margin in Q3, as I mentioned earlier, that the changes that we made are largely structural and so we had a rate card change back in November, structural change. We have reiterated eliminating the direct business, and that is a permanent shift to a much lower proportion of our total revenue coming out of direct which improved our mix and improved gross margin.
We've also seen in Q3 a beginning of a return to the margin within the direct business improving. And we had some quarters as we were trying to get rid of the -- work through the old inventory and work our inventory down as we were doing some pretty significant discounting of that direct inventory, that direct owned inventory.
And we had some quarters where we had 0 or even negative reported gross margin. And what you've seen is a return to positive margin for the direct business, and that's also a return to normal and more structural.
So the idea, and I kind of [indiscernible] around and maybe I was a little bit coy about the potential of our gross margin and maybe we can scare a 7 handle in terms of gross margin. And -- and I think that this level of gross margin is the new normal. And in fact, as we continue to see a little bit of improvement in the direct margin within that category, you may actually see a little bit of improvement in gross margin from this level. But I think it's largely something that you can model and expect in this low 70s range for gross margin.
I couldn't agree more, Robert. And then also as it relates to your 2024 question, Ike, I think basically, what you can do is take what you've seen from us in terms of gross margin and the efficiencies that we've introduced to the core business and say, okay, we've said low double-digit growth, so somewhere around 10% growth. you add with that the new revenue streams, you add with that virtual inventory that complements our core business so well, and that's where we are very pleased with the potential progress that we can make and deliver on that commitment.
And our next question comes from Tom Nikic from Wedbush Securities.
So the changes you made to the model, I guess, we're pretty much lapping it now. Do you think that you'll continue to see benefits from the changes? Like do you think you'll continue to see [indiscernible] Rate move higher? Are you continuing to see lower mix of the low-value items? Or now that we've kind of lapped it, we kind of picked the low-hanging fruit and then further improvement is going to come from our initiative?
Tom, this is Robert. Thanks for the question. One thing that I would say embedded in your question is this idea that we are now lapping the changes that we've made. And I'm not sure that's quite accurate. If you think about some of the changes we've made, and I do think that even Q1 of 2024 is going to have comparison to Q1 from this year, there is still a pretty big year-over-year change.
We made the commission structure of the rate card change, November 1. And we've been working down our direct revenue as a percentage of revenue pretty consistently for the last few quarters, but not fully lapped on that either. And so I do think that there's still improvement. And we talked about at the beginning of this year, the changes that we have made, you're going to see really impact the second half of 2023. And that has proven to be very true and accurate. And so the first half of 2023 still has some impact on a year-over-year basis going into 2024.
So you should expect some improvement with what I would call a rollover effect of getting the full year effect of the things we made that -- we did in 2023 reflected in the 2024 results, and that will come in Q1 and Q2. So there's still a little ways to go in terms of lapping the entire impact of the changes we've made to the business model.
And our next question comes from Edward Yruma from Piper Sandler. .
I guess, first, now that you're pushing fewer units through the authentication facilities, are you seeing any kind of dis-efficiencies as a result of that? And then just as a follow-up, back on the macro commentary, were you actually observing softer trends quarter-to-date, which drove the guidance revision? Or is it simply just lots of stuff in the press and just concern about holiday spend overall?
And then maybe one other follow-up. I know historically, you have out-of-policy returns that kind of reduce the direct numbers post the holiday season? Have there been any changes to return policies?
Right. I can start there. Ed. So I'll start with your last question first. Out of policy returns because that's an easy one. We're not seeing any changes there at this time. So pretty flat to what we've seen in the past as far as historic numbers go.
The first question on less units coming to are you seeing less efficiencies. No, we are not seeing less efficiencies in OpEx, specifically our operations, and I'm talking about, and that's because a lot of what we did and a lot of the investments, like Robert mentioned earlier, was around accelerating operations and their efficiencies. So transportation, you've heard us talk about carrier diversification. All of that is coming into fruition, inventory control, making sure that we're getting tighter about each item coming through the process, also adding efficiencies. So just making things a little bit tighter throughout the process.
So we really feel good about the direction and the impact that we've had there with our investments. And then as far as on the macro piece, and I'll let Koryl and Robert add in, as far as the prudent kind of guidance, so it's a little bit of a mix as far as what we're seeing on buyer behavior. First of all, I want to say supply is really healthy and good. We always said we were a supply-constrained business. That is solid right now. And we're feeling really good about where we're going there. the consumer is quite healthy and fine jewelry, watches, handbags, that marquee product. So that is good news.
Where we are seeing some softness is in ready-to-wear. So it's kind of a category specific answer, and we're seeing the consumer be a little bit more promotion kind of sensitive to that. So we're watching for that. And again, nothing that we're alarmed about, but we think it's the right thing to do to be kind of prudent in our guidance.
Yes. No, I think it's a real opportunity, honestly, Edward, for us to -- like we were a lot more precise in the promotions we were running to juice supply. When we made the commission changes we really saw a pullback not only in low volume, but we also had some softness in some mid-value.
So we got a little bit promotional there. And we had a little bit of a blunt instrument approach. We're a lot more surgical now talking to specific customers about specific actions. And with that capability, it was built in such a way that when we're building the personalization, we can use the exact same personalization capabilities to solicit demand.
So you haven't heard us talk about demand much, not at all since I've been here where we've always talked about being a supply-constrained business.
Now there are certain elements in certain categories and certain price points where we actually do have to adjust our prices, right? And where we do have to actually become a little bit more promotional, but the good news is we have a very large pool of members to draw from, and we can actually see a lot of their behavior even in the absence of transactions, we can see how many people are assessing certain products. How many people are visiting the site on a regular basis. We're observing all those macro and micro trends together to see what we have to do to make sure that we keep the -- the throughput going through the business at the right pace.
Maybe just as a follow-up to that, does that mean you're adjusting kind of the payouts? I mean not the grid, obviously, but kind of what you initially expect to pay out to the consignors or? p
When we were having -- when we had to be a little bit more promotional to drive supply earlier in the year, we had some promotional activity there. This is more on the actual buyer side now. So to reinitiate a lapsed customer, to get somebody to buy in a category that they haven't bought before. That's the type of promotions I'm talking about Edward.
And our next question comes from Ashley Owens from KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Just wanted to ask about marketing dollars as they came down during the quarter. Was this an intentional pullback? Or did you see some efficiencies?
And then just any color on how we should think about the rate going forward would be helpful as well.
Yes. So thank you for that question. As far as marketing efficiencies, that was an intentional pullback in some of the areas, but again, driven out of efficiencies.
So we were able to segment out our base, again, from low value, mid-value, high-value, consignors and customers, really target them in the right areas. You heard us talk about the mid value and how that was soft. looking at the supply specifically. So the marketing team is doing a great job to continue to find those efficiencies in general.
I'm sorry, was there a second part question? .
Yes. Just how we should be thinking about the rate going forward?
I know we continue to offer -- operationalize that and find efficiencies. So, like any other department, whether it's operations, marketing, sales, we'll continue to find efficiencies there. .
[Operator Instructions] And our next question comes from Rick Patel from Raymond James. .
Can you talk about what guidance assumes for the size of the direct business in the fourth quarter? .
And any thoughts on the right way to think about the size of the direct business in 2024? And to what degree you see it impacting GMV and revenue going forward?
Rick, this is Robert. I'll take that one. You saw in Q3 that our direct revenue as a percent of total revenue was in the low teens. And to be honest, that's gotten down to a pretty low level as we have mentioned before, there will always be some direct business. There's policy returns to drive direct business. There's found inventory and sometimes it creates direct business.
We have more or less stopped the open to buy generally, although there are some very specific items, very high-demand items, whether it's Rolex watches or Hermès handbags or so on, that we may continue to do some purchases. And so there will always be some direct revenue. But this current level in the low teens is probably getting to be around the new normal. And so I think what you should expect is something very similar to that in Q4 and also going into next year.
And you touched on certain categories that are doing well. I think you mentioned fine jewelry, handbags and watches. Can you touch on your supply of inventory for these categories that are working? I guess, how do you feel about how you're positioned to monetize this demand that's working?
The good news about us is that we're quite dynamic when it comes to supply. Our sales team does a really nice job of bringing in the supply that the merchants need or the customers need at the right time. we have definitely changed the way we are looking at supply versus units like we've talked about in the past to retail value. So that quality, that higher-end product, the sales team gets more points for, for example.
So as far as watches are concerned, handbags, jewelry, quite healthy when I look at, again, mid- and high-value product year-over-year as far as inventory to sell.
So the team does feel good about supply through the end of the year, some puts us in a good place in Q1 as well.
And I'm showing no further questions. I would now like to turn the call back over to John Koryl for closing remarks. .
Thank you. Thank you for joining us today. Before closing the call, I want to take a moment to thank our team at The RealReal. I am humbled to work with such a dedicated, passionate and professional workforce. Thank you for your daily efforts to fulfill our mission of sustainability, live out our values of excellence and move our business forward. I'd also like to thank our more than 34 million members that are joining us on our mission to extend the life of luxury and make fashion more sustainable. Thank you. .
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.