PayPal Holdings Inc
NASDAQ:PYPL
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one PYPL stock under the Base Case scenario is 83.29 USD. Compared to the current market price of 84.74 USD, PayPal Holdings Inc is Overvalued by 2%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
PayPal Holdings Inc
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Fundamental Analysis
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PayPal Holdings Inc. stands as a cornerstone in the evolving landscape of digital payments, reshaping how money is transferred globally. Founded in 1998, the company began as a modest service enabling people to send payments via email. Since then, it has transformed into a powerful platform facilitating transactions for both consumers and merchants across various channels, including online, mobile, and in-store. With over 400 million active user accounts and partnerships with major online retailers, PayPal is not merely a payment processor; it is a vital enabler of e-commerce, providing secure, quick, and convenient transactions. Its acquisitions, like Braintree and Venmo, showcase a strateg...
PayPal Holdings Inc. stands as a cornerstone in the evolving landscape of digital payments, reshaping how money is transferred globally. Founded in 1998, the company began as a modest service enabling people to send payments via email. Since then, it has transformed into a powerful platform facilitating transactions for both consumers and merchants across various channels, including online, mobile, and in-store. With over 400 million active user accounts and partnerships with major online retailers, PayPal is not merely a payment processor; it is a vital enabler of e-commerce, providing secure, quick, and convenient transactions. Its acquisitions, like Braintree and Venmo, showcase a strategic approach to expanding its service offerings and capturing younger, tech-savvy consumers.
As an investor, one might find PayPal’s growth story compelling, not just for its market position but also for its commitment to innovation and strategic adaptation in a competitive environment. The shift towards cashless transactions and the increasing importance of digital wallets have positioned PayPal favorably in the market. The company continues to invest in technology and partnerships, enhancing its capabilities in sectors like buy now, pay later (BNPL) and cryptocurrency transactions. With a strong financial footing and a vision that embraces the future of finance, PayPal represents a unique opportunity in the tech and fintech sectors as it aims to connect global consumers and businesses in an ever-digital world.
PayPal Holdings, Inc. operates primarily in the digital payments sector, providing various financial technologies and services. Its core business segments can be outlined as follows:
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PayPal Digital Wallet:
- This segment encompasses the core PayPal platform where users can send and receive money, either domestically or internationally. It provides a seamless checkout experience for online shoppers and facilitates transactions for merchants.
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PayPal Credit:
- PayPal offers financing solutions to consumers, such as PayPal Credit, which allows users to make purchases on credit. This segment aims to enhance consumer purchasing power and encourage spending, particularly for higher-value items.
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Merchant Services:
- A significant portion of PayPal's revenue comes from providing merchant services. This includes payment processing solutions, integration of PayPal’s payment gateways into e-commerce platforms, and services like PayPal Here, which allows businesses to accept payments in person through mobile devices.
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Braintree and Venmo:
- Braintree, a subsidiary of PayPal, provides payment processing solutions for mobile and web-based businesses. Venmo, another PayPal service, is a peer-to-peer payment platform popular among younger consumers. Both services contribute significant revenue and user engagement within the PayPal ecosystem.
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Cross-Border Transactions:
- PayPal facilitates international transactions, allowing users and merchants to transact across borders. The fee structure associated with these transactions provides a revenue stream while the service itself enhances PayPal’s global reach.
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Subscription and Billing Services:
- PayPal provides solutions for businesses to manage recurring billing and subscription services, which are becoming increasingly popular in various industries.
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Risk Management and Fraud Prevention:
- PayPal employs advanced technology for risk management and fraud prevention, which protects users and merchants from fraudulent activities and enhances trust in its services.
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Crypto and Digital Assets:
- Recently, PayPal has expanded into cryptocurrency by allowing users to buy, hold, and sell certain cryptocurrencies directly through their accounts, betting on the growing trend of digital assets.
These core segments highlight PayPal's diverse offerings within the digital payment landscape, positioning it as a leader in providing innovative payment solutions to consumers and businesses alike. Each segment is designed to enhance user experience while driving revenue growth in an increasingly digital economy.
PayPal Holdings Inc. has several unique competitive advantages that distinguish it from its rivals in the digital payments space:
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Brand Recognition and Trust: PayPal is one of the most recognized names in online payments and has built a strong brand reputation for security and reliability. This trust is crucial in financial transactions, giving it an edge over less established competitors.
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Large User Base: With millions of active accounts worldwide, PayPal benefits from network effects. The larger the user base, the more useful the platform becomes, attracting more merchants and consumers to use the service.
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Diverse Service Offerings: PayPal provides a range of services beyond basic payment processing, including invoicing, subscription billing, and peer-to-peer payments through platforms like Venmo and Braintree. This diversification attracts different types of users including businesses, consumers, and freelancers.
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Integration Capabilities: PayPal offers seamless integration with many e-commerce platforms, websites, and mobile applications, making it a convenient choice for merchants. Its APIs and developer tools facilitate easy adoption by businesses, giving it a competitive edge.
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Global Reach: PayPal operates in over 200 markets, allowing it to serve a global customer base. This extensive geographical presence makes it attractive to international merchants looking for a reliable payment solution.
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Innovative Product Offerings: PayPal continuously adapts to market trends by innovating its product offerings, such as advanced fraud protection, credit services, and digital wallets. This adaptability enhances user experience and business efficiency.
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Acquisition Strategy: PayPal has strategically acquired companies like Venmo, Braintree, and Honey, which not only enhance their service offerings but also eliminate competition by bringing successful competitors into the fold.
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Strong Partnerships: PayPal has established strong partnerships with numerous online retailers, financial institutions, and payment networks, which help enhance its service visibility and uptake within various consumer segments.
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Regulatory Expertise: PayPal operates in a heavily regulated industry. Its established practices and experience in compliance streamline its processes and allow it to adapt more quickly to regulatory changes compared to newer competitors.
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Customer Service and Support: PayPal invests in customer service and support, providing users with assistance through various channels. Strong customer support can improve user experience and retention, further bolstering its competitive advantage.
These factors combined create a robust ecosystem that not only enhances user loyalty but also helps PayPal maintain a strong position in an increasingly competitive marketplace.
PayPal Holdings Inc. faces several risks and challenges in the near future, including:
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Increased Competition: The digital payments landscape is highly competitive, with numerous players including traditional banks, fintech startups, and tech giants like Apple, Google, and Square. This intense competition could lead to market share erosion and pressure on fees.
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Regulatory Challenges: As a global operator, PayPal must navigate a complex regulatory environment. Changes in regulations related to digital payments, data protection, anti-money laundering laws, and cryptocurrency could impact operations and profitability.
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Cybersecurity Threats: With the increase in digital transactions, the risk of cyberattacks and fraud is a critical concern. A significant breach could damage PayPal’s reputation, lead to financial losses, and erode customer trust.
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Dependence on E-commerce Growth: PayPal’s revenue is closely tied to the growth of e-commerce. Any slowdown in online retail or macroeconomic factors that affect consumer spending could impact transaction volumes.
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Technological Changes: Rapid technological advancements require PayPal to continuously innovate. Staying ahead of trends such as cryptocurrency payments, blockchain technology, and artificial intelligence can be resource-intensive.
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Market Sensitivity to Interest Rates: Fluctuating interest rates can affect consumer spending patterns and the cost of capital, impacting PayPal’s financial performance and growth strategies.
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Geopolitical Risks: Global political and economic instability can adversely affect PayPal’s operations, particularly in emerging markets where it seeks to expand its footprint.
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Customer Retention: With numerous alternatives available, retaining customers is crucial. If PayPal cannot provide superior service or value, customers may switch to competitors.
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Brand and Reputation Management: As a high-profile payment processor, any missteps in customer service or policy could attract negative media attention and affect PayPal’s brand reputation.
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Integration Challenges Post-Acquisitions: PayPal has made several acquisitions to bolster its service offerings. Successfully integrating these companies while realizing synergies without disrupting existing operations presents a significant challenge.
Navigating these risks effectively will be crucial for PayPal’s continued growth and stability in the evolving digital payments landscape.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
PayPal Holdings Inc
Balance Sheet Decomposition
PayPal Holdings Inc
Current Assets | 62.7B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 11.9B |
Receivables | 46.7B |
Other Current Assets | 4.1B |
Non-Current Assets | 20.8B |
Long-Term Investments | 4.3B |
PP&E | 2.2B |
Intangibles | 11.4B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 3B |
Current Liabilities | 50.3B |
Accounts Payable | 41.3B |
Accrued Liabilities | 6.5B |
Other Current Liabilities | 2.5B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 13.1B |
Long-Term Debt | 10B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 3.1B |
Earnings Waterfall
PayPal Holdings Inc
Revenue
|
31.5B
USD
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Cost of Revenue
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-18.8B
USD
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Gross Profit
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12.6B
USD
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Operating Expenses
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-6.9B
USD
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Operating Income
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5.7B
USD
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Other Expenses
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-1.3B
USD
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Net Income
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4.4B
USD
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
PayPal Holdings Inc
USD | |
Free Cash Flow | USD |
In Q3 2024, PayPal showcased significant progress, with total payment volume climbing 9% to $423 billion and revenue rising 6% to $7.8 billion. Non-GAAP earnings per share surged by 22% year-over-year. Amidst strategic shifts, the company is transforming into a powerful commerce platform, enhancing partnerships and launching innovative products. Looking ahead, PayPal anticipates low single-digit revenue growth for Q4, alongside increased non-GAAP EPS in the high teens for 2024. The focus on strategic growth and margin improvement positions PayPal for sustained profitability as it embraces changes to strengthen its market presence.
What is Earnings Call?
PYPL Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
PayPal Holdings Inc's profitability score is 60/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
PayPal Holdings Inc's profitability score is 60/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
PYPL Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
PayPal Holdings Inc's solvency score is 61/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
PayPal Holdings Inc's solvency score is 61/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
PYPL Price Targets Summary
PayPal Holdings Inc
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for PYPL is 91.71 USD with a low forecast of 70.7 USD and a high forecast of 131.25 USD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for PYPL is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Ownership
PYPL Insider Trading
Buy and sell transactions by insiders
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Profile
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Description
PayPal Holdings, Inc. engages in the development of technology platforms for digital payments. The company is headquartered in San Jose, California and currently employs 30,900 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2015-07-06. The company operates a global, two-sided network at scale that connects merchants and consumers with 426 million active accounts across more than 200 markets. Its brands include PayPal, Braintree, Venmo, Xoom, Zettle, Hyperwallet, Honey, Happy Returns by PayPal, Chargehound, Paidy and Simility. The firm helps merchants and consumers connect, transact, and complete payments, whether they are online or in person. The company enables consumers to exchange funds with merchants using a range of funding sources, which may include a bank account, a PayPal or Venmo account balance, PayPal and Venmo branded credit products, a credit card, a debit card, certain cryptocurrencies, or other stored value products, such as gift cards, and eligible credit card rewards. The company also offers consumers person-to-person (P2P) payment solutions.
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IPO
Employees
Officers
The intrinsic value of one PYPL stock under the Base Case scenario is 83.29 USD.
Compared to the current market price of 84.74 USD, PayPal Holdings Inc is Overvalued by 2%.