Newmark Group Inc

NASDAQ:NMRK

Earnings Call Analysis

Newmark's Strong Revenue Growth and Market Share Gains

Newmark experienced significant growth in 2023, with total revenues up by over 23% to $747.4 million, including double-digit gains across all categories. The firm concluded landmark deals like the largest real estate loan sale in U.S. history. Management services, servicing, and other fees grew by 19.4% due to high-margin asset management and servicing portfolio increase. Leasing revenues improved by 19.6%, even as industry activity declined by over 10%, thanks to strong growth in office and industrial sectors. Investment sales and origination revenues surged by 20.7% and 45.9%, respectively. The company achieved a net leverage ratio of 1.0 at year's end, reflecting strong business cash flow and strategic reinvestments.

Substantial Growth Amidst Industry Downturn

The company flaunted its resilience by posting a 19.6% boost in leasing revenues, an achievement underscored by the backdrop of a more than 10% decrease in overall industry leasing activity. Notably, this represented the fourth consecutive quarter where the firm outperformed the market, showcasing robust organic growth in office and industrial sectors.

Outperformance in Investment Sales and Origination

Investment sales and origination revenues were not left behind, surging by 20.7% and 45.9%, respectively. This impressive performance came at a time when the U.S. and European markets observed declines exceeding 40% in investment sales and a 25% slump in U.S. commercial and multifamily originations. Within this challenging environment, the company also succeeded in capturing more market share, particularly in GSE origination, which declined by only 11% compared to the larger market's 42% downturn.

Increasing Expenses Synced With Growth

Reflecting the company's expansion efforts, compensation expenses rose by 23.6%, fueled by higher revenue-driven commissions and costs related to the integration of newly acquired companies and signing new revenue-generating professionals. Non-compensation expenses also went up by 8%. Overall, total expenses increased by 19.2%, in line with the strategic growth objectives.

Earnings and Profitability on the Rise

The company's adept management of growth and expenses was mirrored in its robust earnings report. Adjusted earnings per share soared by 43.8% to reach $0.46, while adjusted EBITDA leaped to $166.2 million, marking a 62.6% increase. However, the adjusted earnings tax rate did see a rise from the previous year, now at 14.8% for the quarter and 15.1% for the full year.

Strong Balance Sheet and Successful Refinancing

The year ended on a solid financial note with $164.9 million in cash and cash equivalents. This reflects strategic cash management, with significant cash inflows from business operations and joint venture redemptions, tactfully balanced against investments in acquisitions and shareholder returns. The net leverage ratio stood at a prudent 1.0. Additionally, the company successfully completed refinancing of its long-term debt, issuing $600 million in 5-year senior notes at an interest rate of 7.5%.

Future Outlook and Revenue Growth

Looking forward into 2024, the company anticipates modest total revenue growth between 3% and 7%. Both adjusted EBITDA and earnings per share are expected to rise by 5% to 9%. Caution is advised, however, as the company expects the bulk of earnings improvement to materialize in the latter half of the year, coinciding with industry volume upticks anticipated towards the end of 2024 and running into 2025.

Long-Term Strategic Goal

The strategic moves and market positioning are aimed at solidifying the company's long-term goal to generate more than $3 billion in annual revenue and over $630 million in adjusted EBITDA, once industry volumes fully normalize around mid-2025.

Cost Reduction Initiatives and Tax Rate

The company is midway through a $75 million cost reduction initiative, having realized $35 million of savings in 2023, and is on track to secure an additional $25 million in 2024. The adjusted earnings tax rate for the upcoming year is projected to be between 16% and 18%.

Growth Strategies and Market Share Expansion

The company's growth strategy hinges on hiring top talent and expanding market presence. Key sectors for talent acquisition include affordable housing advisory services, debt and structured finance – areas which are pivotal for capitalizing on the $2.6 trillion in upcoming debt maturities. The company is bullish on its GSE origination prospects, expecting to hit closer to their lending caps, in contrast to competitor forecasts of flat GSE volumes. Moreover, the strategy includes tapping into niche markets and growing European businesses.

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q4

[Operator]

Good day, and welcome to the Newmark Group 4Q and FY 2023 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Jason McRuder, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

[Jason McGruder, executive]

Thank you, operator, and good morning. Newmark issued its fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial results press release and presentation this morning. Unless otherwise stated, the results provided on today's call compare only the 3 months ending December 31, 2023, with the year earlier period. Except as otherwise specified, we will be referring to our results only on a non-GAAP basis, which includes the term adjusted earnings and adjusted EBITDA. Please refer to the section in today's press release for complete and/or updated definition of any non-GAAP terms, reconciliation of these items to the corresponding GAAP results and how, when and why management uses them. Unless otherwise stated, any figures discussed today with respect to cash flow from operations refer to net cash provided by operating activities, excluding loan origination and sales.

Cash generated by the business is the latter cash flow metric before the impact of loans, forgivable loans and other receivables from employees and partners and the impact of the 2021 equity event. For more information on these cash flow items, our GAAP and non-GAAP results and the industry statistics mentioned today, see our website, today's press release the supplemental Excel tables and/or the presentation, our outlook discussed today assumes no material acquisitions or meaningful changes in the company's stock price. Our expectations are sub changed based on various macroeconomic, social, political and other factors. None of our long-term targets or goals beyond 2024 should be considered formal guidance.

I also remind you that information on this call about our business that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 as amended and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1933 as amended. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties. Except as required by law, Newmark undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. For a complete discussion of additional risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ from those contained in forward-looking statements, see Newmark's Securities and Exchange Commission filings, including, but not limited to, the risk factors in our most recent Form 10-K Form 10-Q or Form 8-K filings, which are incorporated by reference. I am now happy to turn the call over to our host, Barry Gosin, Chief Executive Officer of Newmark.

[Barry Gosin, executive]

Good morning, and thank you for joining us. Newmark's revenues increased by over 23% in the quarter with double-digit gains across every revenue category. We completed the more than $50 billion Signature portfolio sale the largest real estate loan sale in U.S. history. We also closed the largest industrial occupier leases, the largest office tenant lease and the largest office building sale in the United States. Newmark is successfully executing on its strategy of being the best in each of its service lines. In addition to completing the largest transactions in the industry, we generated 20% revenue growth from management services, servicing fees and other this improvement reflected a more than doubling of our high-margin asset management and servicing portfolio to $176 billion, the addition of Gerald and continued organic growth from GCE. Newmark improved its leasing revenues by 20%, while overall industry leasing activity declined by more than 10%. Our significant outperformance was driven by strong double-digit organic growth in office and industrial.

We also gained meaningful market share in capital markets. Newark was the #2 broker in U.S. investment sales for the fourth quarter of 2023 and #3 for the full year, which excludes the $22 billion equity portion of the Signature transactions. We continue to progress towards our goal of becoming the #1 capital markets adviser in the U.S. We attract the best of the best. Already in 2024, we hired the preeminent affordable housing team. some of the most prolific and experienced debt and structured finance professionals as well as one of the most innovative and active U.S. leasing teams. We empower our extraordinary talent with world-class research, data analytics and technology to bring their best to Newmark's clients. We refused to let complacency impede progress in this rapidly evolving industry. And we champion the entrepreneurial spirit.

If you're great, you should be at Newmark. The MBA expects a record $929 million of commercial and multifamily mortgage maturities in 2024. We estimate that about 1/3 are underwater and reasonably likely to be sold. 1/3 will need assistance with restructuring or recapitalization and 1/3 will likely require an adviser to help find new lenders. As a service provider that does not own real estate, these maturities represent an enormous opportunity for us. This refinancing wave is expected to drive double-digit increases in commercial and multifamily originations this year and next. The difficulties of our clients may face will continue to drive them to seek our innovative financing solutions. We expect both existing owners as well as lenders who receive properties and foreclosure to turn to Newmark for the following services, finding new sources of capital, including equity recaps and joint ventures, selling loans, selling properties, property management, valuation and advisory, asset management and servicing and agency leasing, with respect to leasing, vacancies remain below long-term averages in nearly all property types in the U.S. and U.K., except for office, which remains challenged outside of premium Class A properties, Quality office assets continue to command a disproportionate share of the market's activity.

Class A properties accounted for 53% of all U.S. office leasing in the fourth quarter of 2023. The New construction pipelines have fallen significantly from their first quarter 2020 peak and a small but growing percentage of office buildings are being converted to other uses. In addition to -- in addition, owners and lenders are reaching the end of their ability to extend and pretend with respect to mortgages. The recapitalization of these properties will lead to a reset in values and stronger leasing activity. We continue to expect solid fundamentals with respect to industrial and retail leasing, which together represented over 40% of Newmark's leasing revenue in 2023 compared with just over 25% in 2019. We expect transaction volumes to accelerate in the second half of 2024, which, coupled with Newmark's investments in talent will drive our industry-leading revenue growth. With that, I'm happy to turn the call over to our CFO, Mike Rispoli.

[Michael Rispoli, executive]

Thank you, Barry, and good morning. we increased total revenues by 23.1% to $747.4 million, producing double-digit growth in every revenue category. Fees from management services, servicing and other grew by 19.4%. This improvement reflected the addition of Gerald an increase in our high-margin asset management and servicing portfolio to $175.9 million and continued organic growth from GCS. We improved our leasing revenues by 19.6%, and driven by strong double-digit organic growth in office and industrial. This was the fourth consecutive quarter of leasing market share gains for Newmark as overall industry leasing activity was down by over 10%. We improved our investment sales and origination revenues by 20.7% and 45.9%, respectively, and outpaced the market in each of these categories. Industry-wide investment sales activity was down by over 40% in the U.S. and Europe, while U.S. commercial and multifamily originations decreased by 25%. We also gained market share in GSE origination as our volumes declined by approximately 11% compared to the 42% reduction in industry-wide activity.

Turning to expenses. Compensation expenses were up 23.6%, mainly due to higher commissions tied to revenue as well as expenses related to acquired companies and the hiring of revenue-generating professionals under long-term contracts. Non-compensation expenses were up 8% due to a $10.3 million increase in pass-through expenses. Total expenses were up by 19.2%. With respect to the company's $75 million cost reduction initiative, Newmark recognized approximately $35 million in savings in 2023 and and expects to realize an incremental $25 million in 2024 with the balance of the savings realized in 2025.

Turning to earnings. Our adjusted earnings per share grew by 43.8% to $0.46, and our adjusted EBITDA improved to $166.2 million, up 62.6%. Our quarterly adjusted earnings tax rate was 14.8% compared with 9.3% a year earlier. Our full year 2023 adjusted earnings tax rate was 15.1% and as compared to 17.1% in 2022. Our fully diluted weighted average share count was consistent with our previous guidance of approximately $250 million for the quarter and $246 million for the full year.

Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the year with $164.9 million of cash and cash equivalents. The change from year-end 2022 reflects $341.2 million of cash generated by the business and $105.5 million from the redemption of a joint venture. These receipts of cash were partially offset by $325.8 million of cash invested for acquisitions and producers. Other uses of cash included capital expenditures and return of capital to shareholders. Our net leverage ratio was 1.0 as of year-end 2023. Last month, we successfully completed the refinancing of our long-term debt by issuing $600 million of 5-year senior notes at 7.5%.

Moving to our outlook for the full year 2024 compared to 2023. We expect total revenues to grow between 3% and 7%. We anticipate both adjusted EBITDA and earnings per share to grow between 5% to 9%. We expect our fully diluted weighted average share count to increase by approximately and we expect our adjusted earnings tax rate to be between 16% and 18%. Due to the scale of our hiring and our significant outperformance in the fourth quarter of 2023 and we expect the majority of our year-over-year improvement in earnings to occur in the second and third quarters of 2024. As Barry discussed, we expect industry volumes to pick up in the back half of 2024 and into 2025, once volumes fully normalize, which we expect to be around the middle of 2025 and given our substantial investments we expect our business to generate on an annual basis, over $3 billion in revenue and over $630 million in adjusted EBITDA. And with that, I would like to open the call for questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] And our first question will come from Connor Mitchell with Piper Sandler.

[Connor Mitchell, analyst]

So thinking about the revenue outlook you guys outlined, can you just share a little bit more about how you're thinking of each line item's growth over the year in order to achieve that total revenue growth of the 3% to 7%? I know Barry touched on it a few of them, maybe you guys could provide some numbers or just some further outline on your thinking to reach that total growth number.

[Michael Rispoli, executive]

Sure. Yes, I would say that, certainly, we had great leasing performance in '23. Our expectation is that because we gained so much market share this year, that line item could be somewhat flat in '24, maybe even down a little. And the growth will come from our management businesses as we continue to grow those businesses. and our capital markets businesses. I think Barry mentioned debt industry-wide will be up probably 20% or more, and we think we'll see some more sales activity because of the debt maturity wall that's coming.

[Connor Mitchell, analyst]

Okay. That's helpful. And then Barry touched on in the opening remarks. You guys have brought in a lot of great talent, the top affordable advisory -- affordable housing advisory team debt and structured finance. Is there anywhere that you guys are kind of eyeing the next moves, maybe some product lines or geography, sector, specialty, et cetera, that maybe you guys want to increase your bench or just add some more depth in that area.

[Barry Gosin, executive]

I mean we're always adding talent. That is really our strategy about adding talent we added a portable, which has implications with Freddie and Fannie. It's mission-critical to the GSE business. So we're excited about that opportunity. We've brought in and strengthened our debt and structured finance certainly with $2.6 trillion of debt maturing over the next few years. and many of these loans are going to need help that will offer us opportunities so we strengthened that bench. There are some white spaces in the U.S. and then we're growing across Europe. But we always continue to look for talent that builds a spot.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Our next question will come from Jade Rahmani with KBW.

[Jade Rahmani, analyst]

I realize there's not too much you can disclose, but on Signature, I want to confirm there's no revenue expectation in 2024. And do you know roughly speaking, where investment sales commission percentage rates and debt brokerage commission percentage rates would be ex signature in the fourth quarter?

[Michael Rispoli, executive]

I would say that they're within historical averages without the Signature transaction market share without this.

[Barry Gosin, executive]

We gained market share without the signature transactions.

[Jade Rahmani, analyst]

Yes. It certainly appears that way based on the data that we've seen. Wanted to ask about the outlook again and the phone was a bit difficult to hear. Did you say that capital markets volumes would be up 20% or more there would be growth in investment sales and that leasing would be down a little bit.

[Michael Rispoli, executive]

Yes, that's generally correct. I said because of our leasing outperformance in '23, our expectation going into the year is somewhat flat for '24, it could be down a little. We expect to continue to see growth in Management Services and our management business is generally our servicing business. The MBA expects debt to be up around 20% year-over-year and we would expect to maintain or grow our market share there. And then we would expect sales activity to be up year-over-year as well.

[Jade Rahmani, analyst]

And then the GSEs Walker & Dunlop and I think Cushman & Wakefield both expect volumes to be relatively flat in 2024 and I mean that does go against their historical countercyclical role in the market, but they're being much more judicious in terms of what they accept for origination. Do you expect GSE volumes within your business to be flattish?

[Barry Gosin, executive]

We disagree with offering on that. We think that the GSE business will hit hit their caps or get closer to caps. We also believe that we will gain market share, certainly getting into the affordable space which as we are now building out a private client part of our business. So some of the smaller institutional quality deals will offer up more mission-critical for Freddie and Fannie.

[Jade Rahmani, analyst]

And just lastly, on the recruitment front, there's been some high-profile departures of late, so-called superstar producers. -- does that characterize the types of folks you're looking to recruit? Or would you be looking to recruit smaller infill teams that are more niche focused.

[Barry Gosin, executive]

Lebot. We're always looking for great talent. I mean that's exceptional people brings exceptional results.

[Operator]

And that does conclude the question-and-answer session. I'll now hand the conference back over to you.

[Barry Gosin, executive]

I want to thank everybody for joining us today and look forward to next quarter. Thanks.

[Operator]

Thank you. That does conclude today's conference. We do thank you for your participation. Have an excellent day.