Netflix Inc
NASDAQ:NFLX
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one NFLX stock under the Base Case scenario is 393.24 USD. Compared to the current market price of 897.79 USD, Netflix Inc is Overvalued by 56%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
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Netflix Inc
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Fundamental Analysis
Economic Moat
Netflix Inc
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Netflix Inc., the pioneering streaming service that transformed how we consume entertainment, offers a captivating narrative of innovation and growth. Founded in 1997 by Reed Hastings and Marc Randolph, the company started as a DVD rental service by mail before pivoting to streaming in 2007, leading the charge in redefining media consumption. With over 230 million subscribers worldwide, Netflix's expansive library features a mix of original content, critically acclaimed films, and popular television series. Its deep investment in original programming, such as "Stranger Things" and "The Crown," not only solidifies its brand but also attracts diverse audiences, placing Netflix at the center of...
Netflix Inc., the pioneering streaming service that transformed how we consume entertainment, offers a captivating narrative of innovation and growth. Founded in 1997 by Reed Hastings and Marc Randolph, the company started as a DVD rental service by mail before pivoting to streaming in 2007, leading the charge in redefining media consumption. With over 230 million subscribers worldwide, Netflix's expansive library features a mix of original content, critically acclaimed films, and popular television series. Its deep investment in original programming, such as "Stranger Things" and "The Crown," not only solidifies its brand but also attracts diverse audiences, placing Netflix at the center of the global entertainment landscape.
As an investor, understanding Netflix’s business model is crucial. The company operates on a subscription-based revenue model, generating consistent cash flow while incurring significant costs for content creation and licensing. Despite facing substantial competition from other streaming platforms like Amazon Prime and Disney+, Netflix's emphasis on quality storytelling and user experience helps maintain its leading market position. Additionally, its focus on international expansion and localized content cements its strategy for future growth. With an ongoing commitment to innovation, Netflix continues to adapt to changing viewer preferences and technological advancements, making it a compelling investment for those seeking exposure to the evolving entertainment sector.
Netflix Inc. operates primarily in the streaming entertainment industry and its core business segments can be categorized as follows:
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Streaming Services:
- Subscription Video on Demand (SVOD): This is the primary business segment where users subscribe for access to a vast library of movies, TV shows, documentaries, and original programming. Netflix offers various subscription plans that differ by streaming quality and number of simultaneous users.
- Content Library: This includes licensed content from third-party studios and networks, as well as Netflix's own original content, which includes series, films, and specials. Original content has become a crucial differentiator for Netflix in competitive markets.
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Content Production:
- Original Content Creation: Netflix invests heavily in producing its own films, series, and documentaries, which not only attract subscribers but also allow the company to own its content and reduce dependency on external content providers. This includes partnering with various producers, directors, and talent.
- Global Expansion of Content: Netflix focuses on creating localized content that resonates with international audiences, thereby expanding its global reach. This includes producing series and films in numerous languages.
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International Markets:
- Global Market Penetration: Netflix's growth strategy heavily relies on expanding its presence in international markets. It tailors its content offerings to local tastes and preferences, which allows it to capture a diverse subscriber base worldwide.
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Technology and User Experience:
- Streaming Technology: Netflix continuously invests in technology to enhance streaming quality, user interface, and personalization features. This includes algorithms for content recommendations, download capabilities, and features that enhance user engagement.
- Mobile Platforms: With the rise of mobile streaming, Netflix has made its service accessible on smartphones and tablets, further reaching audiences who prefer mobile consumption.
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Merchandising and Licensing:
- Licensing of Original Content: In some cases, Netflix licenses its original programming for merchandise or other distribution platforms, generating additional revenue streams.
- Interactive Content: Exploring various formats and experiencing different engagement models, such as choose-your-own-adventure style programming.
These segments are essential to Netflix's business strategy, allowing it to maintain its competitive advantage in the rapidly evolving entertainment landscape and adapt to changing consumer preferences. The company's focus on original content and international growth is particularly critical as competition increases with other streaming services entering the market.
Netflix Inc. has several unique competitive advantages that help it maintain its position as a leader in the streaming industry. Here are some of the key advantages:
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Strong Brand Equity: Netflix has established a strong global brand synonymous with streaming. Its brand recognition draws in subscribers and fosters loyalty.
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Original Content Strategy: Netflix invests heavily in producing original content. This unique library, including critically acclaimed series and films, helps differentiate it from competitors. Original productions create a compelling reason for viewers to choose Netflix, as content can't be found elsewhere.
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Data-Driven Insights: Netflix uses sophisticated algorithms and data analytics to understand viewer preferences, enabling it to tailor user experiences and recommend personalized content. This data-driven approach allows for better content creation and curation.
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Global Reach and Scale: Netflix operates in over 190 countries, which gives it a vast international audience. This scale allows for significant investment in content and negotiation power with filmmakers and creators.
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Subscription Model and Cash Flow: Netflix’s subscription-based revenue model provides stable cash flow, allowing for consistent investment in content. Unlike advertising-based models, its subscribers are viewed less as individual users and more as long-term relationships.
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Ad-Free Experience: While some competitors are introducing ad-supported tiers, Netflix is known for its ad-free streaming experience. This can appeal to consumers seeking uninterrupted viewing.
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Innovative Technology: Netflix has invested in advanced technology to optimize streaming quality, including adaptive streaming and user interface design. Its technology improves customer satisfaction, which helps retain subscribers.
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Diverse Content Library: Beyond original content, Netflix offers a wide variety of licensed films, documentaries, and shows across different genres and languages, catering to diverse audience preferences.
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Pioneering Community Engagement: Netflix has fostered a strong community around its content, effectively using social media and fan engagement to create buzz and maintain subscriber interest.
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Strong Relationships with Creators: Netflix has developed strong partnerships with directors, producers, and writers, attracting top talent who want to create for the platform.
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Investment in International Markets: The company has localized content, investing in original shows and films in various languages and genres that resonate with regional audiences, enhancing its global relevancy.
These competitive advantages combine to create a formidable position for Netflix in the streaming market, enabling it to continue attracting and retaining subscribers even as competition intensifies.
Netflix Inc faces several risks and challenges as it navigates the competitive landscape of streaming services. Here are some key factors to consider:
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Intense Competition: With numerous players entering the streaming market, such as Disney+, Amazon Prime Video, HBO Max, and others, Netflix faces fierce competition for subscribers. This could pressure Netflix to spend more on content acquisition and production.
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Subscriber Growth Saturation: As the market matures, Netflix may face difficulties in maintaining its subscriber growth, particularly in saturated markets like the U.S. and Canada. Reaching new subscribers may require greater investment in marketing and content that appeals to diverse demographics.
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Content Costs and Challenges: The need for high-quality, original content to attract and retain subscribers puts pressure on Netflix’s profitability. Rising production costs, due in part to increased competition for talent and exclusive rights, could squeeze margins.
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Global Expansion Risks: While expanding into international markets offers growth opportunities, it also brings challenges, including localization of content, navigating different regulatory environments, and varying consumer preferences.
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Churn Rate: Retaining subscribers is crucial for Netflix’s growth. The company risks higher churn rates due to economic factors, changing consumer preferences, or better offers from competitors. This could lead to fluctuating revenues and profitability.
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Economic Uncertainty: Economic downturns may lead consumers to cut discretionary spending, including subscription services. A recession might prompt subscribers to downgrade or cancel their Netflix subscriptions.
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Regulatory Environment: As a global company, Netflix must navigate varying regulatory frameworks, including content regulations, data privacy laws, and tax implications in different countries, which could hamper operations or profitability.
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Technological Disruptions: Rapid changes in technology and consumer behavior could affect how content is consumed. Failure to innovate or adapt to new viewing habits could diminish Netflix’s competitive edge.
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Adoption of Ad-Supported Models: While the introduction of ad-supported tiers might provide new revenue streams, it also poses risks related to user experience and could alienate existing subscribers who prefer ad-free viewing.
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Intellectual Property and Copyright Issues: As competition increases, protecting content and intellectual property rights becomes crucial. Legal disputes can be costly and distract from core business operations.
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Debt Levels: While Netflix has invested heavily in content through debt financing, high debt levels can pose risks, particularly if revenues do not grow as expected or if interest rates rise.
Addressing these risks will require strategic planning and adaptability as Netflix moves forward in a dynamic and rapidly changing marketplace.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Netflix Inc
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Netflix Inc
Current Assets | 12.1B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 9.2B |
Receivables | 1.2B |
Other Current Assets | 1.7B |
Non-Current Assets | 40.2B |
PP&E | 3.8B |
Intangibles | 32.2B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 4.2B |
Current Liabilities | 10.7B |
Accounts Payable | 5.1B |
Accrued Liabilities | 2.2B |
Other Current Liabilities | 3.3B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 18.9B |
Long-Term Debt | 14.2B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 4.7B |
Earnings Waterfall
Netflix Inc
Revenue
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37.6B
USD
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Cost of Revenue
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-20.6B
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Gross Profit
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17B
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Operating Expenses
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-7.4B
USD
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Operating Income
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9.6B
USD
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Other Expenses
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-1.9B
USD
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Net Income
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7.8B
USD
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Free Cash Flow Analysis
Netflix Inc
USD | |
Free Cash Flow | USD |
Netflix projects $43 to $44 billion in revenue for 2025, reflecting an 11% to 13% growth, driven primarily by membership increases. Operating margins are expected to improve by 6 percentage points due to strategic investments and pricing adjustments. While ads revenue is currently secondary, it’s anticipated to double year-over-year by 2025, contributing to a balanced growth approach. The company also sees a major opportunity in Latin America, with an expanding content slate aimed at re-engaging memberships in the region.
What is Earnings Call?
NFLX Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Netflix Inc's profitability score is 64/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Netflix Inc's profitability score is 64/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
NFLX Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Netflix Inc's solvency score is 65/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Netflix Inc's solvency score is 65/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
NFLX Price Targets Summary
Netflix Inc
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NFLX is 797.86 USD with a low forecast of 555.5 USD and a high forecast of 1 155 USD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for NFLX is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Ownership
NFLX Insider Trading
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Profile
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Description
Netflix, Inc. operates as a streaming entertainment service company. The company is headquartered in Los Gatos, California and currently employs 11,300 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2002-05-23. The firm has paid streaming memberships in over 190 countries, and it allows members to watch a variety of television (TV) series, documentaries, feature films and mobile games across a variety of genres and languages. Its members can watch as much as they want, anytime, anywhere, on any Internet-connected screen. Members can play, pause and resume watching, without commercials. Additionally, the Company offers its digital versatile disk (DVD) -by-mail service in the United States. The company offers a variety of streaming membership plans, the price of which varies by country and the features of the plan. The pricing of its plans ranges from U.S. dollar equivalent of approximately $2 to $27 per month. The company members can watch streaming content through a host of Internet-connected devices, including TVs, digital video players, TV set-top boxes and mobile devices. The company acquires, licenses and produces content, including original programming.
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IPO
Employees
Officers
The intrinsic value of one NFLX stock under the Base Case scenario is 393.24 USD.
Compared to the current market price of 897.79 USD, Netflix Inc is Overvalued by 56%.