Nordson Corp

NASDAQ:NDSN

Earnings Call Analysis

Nordson Achieves Record Sales in Q4 2024 Amid Challenging Markets

In Q4 2024, Nordson reported sales of $744 million, a 4% increase from last year, aided by acquisitions contributing 6%. However, organic sales decreased by 3%. Adjusted operating profit rose to $205 million, with EBITDA reaching a record $241 million, representing 32% of sales. The company anticipates 2025 revenue growth between 2% to 7%, with adjusted earnings estimated from neutral to 8% growth per diluted share. The Atrion acquisition is projected to add about 6% to revenue, enhancing capacity for fluid components. Notably, the annual dividend was raised by 15%, signaling strong cash management despite existing debt pressures.

Strength in Numbers: Fourth Quarter Performance

In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, Nordson Corporation achieved sales of $744 million, representing a 4% increase from $719 million in the same quarter last year. This growth was attributed to a 6% increase from acquisitions, primarily driven by the recent acquisition of Atrion, offset by a 3% decline in organic sales. Organic sales were impacted by challenging year-over-year comparisons in the Industrial Precision Solutions segment and declines in certain product categories within the Medical and Fluid Solutions segment.

Profit Margins and Operational Efficiency

Adjusted operating profit rose to $205 million, a marginal increase from the previous year, alongside gross margin improvements of 110 basis points, aided by enhanced factory efficiencies and a better mix of parts revenue. EBITDA for the quarter also increased by 6% to a record $241 million, maintaining a favorable EBITDA margin of 32%.

Segment Insights: Where Growth Stands

The performance varied significantly across Nordson's segments. Sales in the Industrial Precision Solutions segment were $392 million, down 3% year-over-year, while the Medical and Fluid Solutions segment saw sales surge by 19% to $200 million, driven largely by Atrion. Interestingly, the Advanced Technology Solutions segment experienced a 5% increase in sales, again showing promise with a return to nominal year-over-year growth for the first time in over a year.

Looking Ahead: 2025 Guidance

As Nordson enters fiscal 2025, the company aims for cautious growth amid a fluctuating macroeconomic environment. For the upcoming year, they forecast sales growth in the range of 2% to 7% compared to fiscal 2024, with adjusted earnings expected to grow between neutral and 8% per diluted share. Fiscal first quarter 2025 sales are projected between $615 million and $655 million.

Focus on the Future: Ascend Strategy 2025-2029

During the call, management emphasized their long-term Ascend strategy, aiming for average annual revenue growth of 6% to 8% from 2025 to 2029, alongside a targeted adjusted EPS growth of 10% to 12%. The ongoing integration of Atrion is anticipated to be a significant driver in this growth, diversifying their addressable market substantially, especially in the fluid components sector.

Acquisition Impact: Atrion Integration

The integration of Atrion has been progressing well, with expectations of elevating EBITDA margins into the upper 20% range. This acquisition not only broadens Nordson’s product offerings but also positions them to benefit from a growing market in infusion therapies and drug delivery.

Financial Stability: Debt and Cash Flow

In terms of financial health, Nordson reported about $580 million in backlog and generated free cash flow of $492 million in fiscal 2024, achieving an impressive cash conversion rate of 105% on net income. Although overall debt increased due to the Atrion acquisition, they managed to repay approximately $315 million during the fiscal year, maintaining a leverage ratio of 2.5 times trailing 12-month EBITDA.

Risks and Market Conditions

Despite positive signs, management expressed caution regarding market dynamics, particularly in capital spending within the Industrial Precision Solutions segment, while also highlighting the slow recovery in the electronics and agricultural end markets. There is a sense of hesitancy among customers regarding large capital investments, which may impede the expected growth momentum.

Dividend Growth: Returning Value to Shareholders

Nordson continued its tradition of increasing shareholder returns, raising the annual dividend by 15%, marking the company's 61st consecutive year of dividend increases. This reflects management’s commitment to both reinvesting in the business and rewarding shareholders.

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q4

[Operator]

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Nordson Corporation Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2024 Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. I'd now like to turn the call over to Lara Mahoney, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications. You may begin.

[Lara Mahoney, executive]

Thank you. Good morning. This is Lara Mahoney, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications. We welcome you to our conference call today, Thursday, December 12, 2024, to report Nordson's fiscal year 2024 fourth quarter and full year results.

I'm here with Sundaram Nagarajan, our President and CEO; and Dan Hopgood, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. You can find both our press release as well as our webcast slide presentation that we will refer to during today's call on our website at nordson.com/investors.

This conference call is being broadcast live on our investor website and will be available there for 14 days. There will be a telephone replay of the conference call available until December 19, 2024.

During this conference call, references to non-GAAP financial metrics will be made. A complete reconciliation of these metrics to the most comparable GAAP metric has been provided in the press release issued yesterday.

Before we begin, please refer to Slide 2 of our presentation, where we note that certain statements regarding our future performance that are made during this call may be forward-looking based upon Nordson's current expectations. These statements may involve a number of risks, uncertainties and other factors as discussed in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission that could cause actual results to differ.

Moving to today's agenda on Slide 3. Naga will discuss fourth quarter and full year highlights. He will then turn the call over to Dan to review sales and earnings performance for the total company and the 3 business segments. Dan also will talk about the year-end balance sheet and cash flow. Naga will conclude with high-level commentary about our enterprise performance, including an update on the Ascend strategy as well as our fiscal 2025 full year and first quarter guidance. We will then be happy to take your questions.

With that, I'll turn to Slide 4 and hand the call over to Naga.

[Sundaram Nagarajan, executive]

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining Nordson's Fiscal 2024 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Conference Call. In fiscal 2024, we continue to make progress on our Ascend strategy, delivering record sales of $2.7 billion and record EBITDA dollars of $849 million or 32% of sales. This is a testament to our employees, who have in the last 4 years deployed and delivered results with NBS Next, our growth framework, despite dynamic global macro conditions, end market changes, supply chain disruptions and more.

The core elements of our business model have enabled us to deliver profitable growth throughout these challenges. This includes a steadfast focus on our customers, commitment to innovation, diversified geographic and end market exposures and a high level of recurring revenue through aftermarket parts and consumables.

Since launching the Ascend strategy in 2021, we've added new capabilities to our business model, including the NBS Next growth framework and a division-led structure, which have empowered our teams to respond rapidly to changing market conditions.

I will speak more to the enterprise performance in a few moments. But I will now turn the call over to Dan to provide more detailed perspective on our financial results for the quarter and fiscal year 2024.

[Daniel Hopgood, executive]

Thank you, Naga, and good morning to everyone. I'll start on Slide 5, which summarizes our overall results for the fourth quarter. You'll see fourth quarter 2024 sales were $744 million, up 4% compared to the prior year's fourth quarter sales of $719 million. The increase included 6% growth from acquisitions, primarily from the recent Atrion acquisition, but also the final weeks of contribution from the ARAG acquisition that we completed in the prior year.

Currency translation was favorable by 1%, and organic sales were down 3% compared to the fourth quarter of the prior year. The organic sales decrease was driven by challenging year-over-year comparisons in our Industrial Precision Solutions segment and year-over-year declines in selected product categories within our Medical and Fluid Solutions segment. These were partially offset by a return to growth in our Advanced Technology Solutions segment, and I'll cover a bit more on each of our segments in a moment.

Adjusted operating profit, which excludes $26 million in nonrecurring costs related to the Atrion acquisition and onetime restructuring costs during the quarter, was $205 million, up 30 basis points from the prior year on a percentage of sales basis. This was driven by gross margin improvements of about 110 basis points, reflecting factory efficiency gains and a higher mix of parts revenue.

Selling, general and administrative expenses as a percentage of sales increased about 80 basis points year-over-year, reflecting the addition of Atrion and continued investment in front-end growth initiatives. All in, this represents a 35% incremental operating margin for the company, which is on the high end of our targeted performance.

EBITDA for the fourth quarter increased 6% over the prior year to a record $241 million or 32% of sales. This is 200 basis points above our long-term profitability target as articulated in our Ascend strategy. This also compares to $227 million, also at 32% of sales in the prior year fourth quarter. That translates into a 56% incremental EBITDA on our 4% overall sales growth for the quarter, a really strong quarter of both operational execution and the initial integration of the Atrion acquisition.

Looking at nonoperating income and expenses in the quarter, interest expense in the quarter increased nominally to $27 million. This modest increase is driven by higher net debt levels due to acquisitions compared to the prior year.

As a reminder, in September, we accessed the public debt markets, raising $600 million in 5-year notes priced at 4.5% in order to finance the Atrion acquisition. The balance of the purchase price was funded with our revolver, which we expect to pay down in the near term. Other expense on a net basis increased $5 million year-over-year primarily due to currency fluctuations and some reduction in pension income year-over-year.

Tax expense was $26 million for the quarter, an effective tax rate of 17%. Our fourth quarter tax rate reflects changes in our mix of earnings due to acquisitions and other structural changes. It reflects a full year effective tax rate of approximately 20%. This improved mix is expected to continue going forward, and you'll see this reflected in our 2025 guidance that Naga will cover a bit later.

GAAP net income totaled $122 million or $2.12 per diluted share while adjusted earnings per share, excluding nonrecurring acquisition and restructuring-related expenses, totaled $2.78 per share, a 3% increase over the prior year. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.19 above the midpoint of our guidance for the quarter, reflecting equal contributions from strong operating performance during the quarter and the favorable tax rate differential that I just mentioned.

Now let's turn to Slides 6 through 8 to review our fourth quarter segment performance. Industrial Precision Solutions sales of $392 million decreased 3% compared to the prior year fourth quarter. Organically, IPS decreased 5% in the quarter with the ARAG acquisition adding 1% and currency providing a favorable impact of another 1%.

You'll recall that IPS delivered record sales in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023 driven by record sales in industrial coatings product line and elevated deliveries in our polymer processing products. These create tough year-over-year comparisons for the segment and are driving the overall organic decline in the IPS segment for the quarter. For the full year, IPS organic sales were flat with the prior year. EBITDA for the quarter was $143 million or 37% of sales, reflecting consistent operational performance on slightly lower sales.

Turning to Slide 7. Medical and Fluid Solutions sales of $200 million increased 19% compared to the prior year's fourth quarter. This increase was primarily driven by the Atrion acquisition and a minor currency benefit, offset by a decrease in organic sales volume of 3% or $5 million. The organic volume decline reflects some softness in medical interventional solutions product lines, partially offset by a modest improvement in our fluid components and fluid dispense product lines.

Fourth quarter EBITDA was $72 million or 36% of sales, which is an increase of 17% compared to the prior year EBITDA of $62 million or 37% of sales. EBITDA margins were slightly lower than the prior year due to the inclusion of the acquired Atrion business. You'll recall that we expect Atrion's EBITDA margins to improve over time as we continue to integrate the business and implement our NBS Next growth framework.

Turning to Slide 8. You'll see Advanced Technology Solutions sales of $152 million increased 5% compared to the prior year's fourth quarter. This change included an increase in organic sales volume of 4% as well as a small currency benefit.

Growth in the quarter was driven by improvement in selected test and inspection product lines as well as modest improvement within our electronics dispense product lines. Our sales in ATS reflect continued sequential improvement from the third quarter and a return to nominal year-over-year growth in this segment for the first time since the first quarter of fiscal 2023. We've seen electronics and semiconductor end markets continue to show signs of stable improvement.

Fourth quarter EBITDA was $41 million or 27% of sales, an increase of $6 million from the prior year fourth quarter EBITDA of $35 million or 24% of sales. We're really pleased with the segment's EBITDA performance, particularly in a down cycle as the 27% EBITDA margin performance represents a significant step-up from historical performance. It's a testament to the team's efforts to improve the structure of the base business, and it positions us well when the electronics markets return to more meaningful growth.

Now turning to Slide 9. I'll share a few comments on our full year results. 2024 full year sales were a record $2.7 billion, an increase of 2% compared to the prior year's previous record sales results. This was driven by a 5% impact from acquisitions, offset by an organic decrease of 3%.

On a full year basis, the organic sales decrease is essentially all driven by our Advanced Technology Solutions segment, although we did see orders and sales continue to improve in our ATS product lines as we exited 2024. The Industrial Precision Solutions, Medical and Fluid Solutions segments were essentially flat organically on a combined basis with industrial up slightly and medical down slightly for the year.

Adjusted operating profit was $713 million or 27% of sales, which was comparable to the prior year. EBITDA for the full year increased 4% to a record $849 million or 32% of sales. This represents a full year incremental EBITDA margin of 49%. And it marks the fourth consecutive year of the Ascend strategy, delivering solid EBITDA growth.

GAAP diluted earnings per share were $8.11 for the year. And adjusted diluted earnings per share were $9.73, a 1% decrease from the prior year, reflecting the higher interest costs associated with the ARAG and Atrion acquisitions. On balance, we're pleased with how we finished the year despite some near-term weakness in certain end markets, and we remain confident in our 5-year targets established at our October 2024 Investor Day.

Finally, turning to the balance sheet and cash flow on Slide 10. We had another strong cash flow year, generating $492 million in free cash flow at a conversion rate of 105% on net income. While still strong, cash flow conversion was down from 2023. And this was due to higher capital investments and additional use of working capital, both of which we expect to normalize going forward.

While our debt balance increased in the quarter due to the Atrion acquisition, we continue to deploy cash efficiently. During the quarter, we increased our annual dividend by 15%, marking our 61st year of consecutive annual increases.

On a full year basis, excluding the impact of the Atrion acquisition, we repaid approximately $315 million of debt, paid out $161 million of dividends and repurchased $28 million of shares on the open market. Through our strategic capital deployment, we ended the year with a strong balance sheet with cash balances of $116 million and net debt at $2.1 billion, resulting in a leverage ratio of 2.5x based on trailing 12-month EBITDA. This is within our targeted long-term range and also in line with our expectations for the year.

So in closing, just to summarize, our fourth quarter sales were in line with our previous guidance. And we came in better from an overall profit conversion standpoint. We're very pleased to see our Advanced Technology segment continue to show signs of positive improvement in demand. And our IPS and MFS segments continue to deliver strong operational performance despite some near-term demand weakness in selected product lines. We closed fiscal 2024 with a strong balance sheet, and we steadily reinvested in the business, positioning ourselves well for a dynamic 2025.

I'll now turn the call back to Naga.

[Sundaram Nagarajan, executive]

Thank you, Dan. As I reflect on the past 4 years since we launched our Ascend strategy, we started from a position of strength with many competitive advantages, leadership position in diversified niche end markets, high recurring parts revenues, a direct-to-customer model and differentiated products built on deep knowledge of our customers' demanding applications.

In the past 4 years, we have added 2 new advantages to expand our competitive mode. The first is a renewed emphasis on our growth bias portfolio that has positioned us to accelerate profitable growth. Over time, we have strategically increased our mix of recurring revenue, and we have expanded into the high-growth end markets of medical and electronics. This mix has been strategically driven through organic and acquisitive means.

In the short term, end market cycles and unique macro conditions have slowed organic growth in these segments. This increases the importance of balancing organic growth with acquisitions.

Our recent Atrion Medical acquisition is a great example of this strategy. This acquisition expands our fluid components' addressable market by more than 50% by adding products and solutions for infusion therapies and drug delivery. It also expands our current offering to top medical device customers and broadens Nordson's exposure to significant single-use consumables with recurring revenue streams. Atrion was a solid contributor to our fourth quarter revenue, and it will be a growth driver in fiscal 2025 and beyond.

The second advantage that we have added to Nordson is the NBS Next growth framework. It drives profitable growth and creates value in our acquisitions. I'm very pleased with the implementation of NBS Next, which is becoming a competitive advantage.

Throughout 2024, I've traveled to many of the Nordson sites, including Europe, China and India in October and November. It is clear to me that the NBS Next growth framework is now how we run our businesses.

You can see it evidenced in the fourth quarter results of our ATS segment. As Dan noted, ATS achieved 27% EBITDA margins while still in the downside of the electronic cycle due to its strategic repositioning. They will be very well positioned to respond to customers when the market turns.

At our Investor Day in October, we shared several examples of how NBS Next has driven improved performance in on-time delivery and product quality, allowing the Nordson divisions to protect and grow market share. I encourage you to listen to the Investor Day webcast recording, which is available in our investor website. As we work towards our new financial performance targets, NBS Next and the Ascend strategy have ample runway to enable the Nordson team to be successful in the next 5 years.

Also at our Investor Day, we announced our 2025 to 2029 performance targets. In 2029, when we look back on our financial results, we expect to leverage the Ascend strategy to deliver average annual growth of 6% to 8% in revenue balanced between organic and acquisitive growth and 10% to 12% in adjusted EPS growth. As this is an average annual growth target for that period, growth can be higher in some years and lower in others.

We are entering 2025 prudently with conservative expectations for many of our end markets. We also recognize the level of change in the global macro environment, which could cause our customers to be judicious in their spending in the near term.

In our Industrial Precision Solutions segment, although our current order entry trends are encouraging, we are expecting large capital investments to be muted in the near term based on customer conversations and reduced backlog levels. For our large system businesses, particularly polymer processing product lines, reduced investment in areas such as recycling will be significant headwinds after 2 record sales years. Additionally, although European agricultural end market seems to have stabilized, we are cautiously awaiting meaningful growth.

Within our Medical and Fluid Solutions segment, medical device customer supply chain teams are being far more cautious with their inventory purchase patterns. We currently see this impact in weakness within our interventional solutions product line, which is approximately 47% of this segment's sales.

Long-term project pipelines remain solid. And we continue to stay close to our customers and ensure we understand their post-COVID supply chain product needs. Modest growth from our fluid components and fluid dispense product lines will somewhat offset this pressure, but we expect MFS growth to largely come from the Atrion acquisition in fiscal 2025.

Positively, we expect to see continued steady improvement in sales from our electronics customers. That said, we do not expect that a significant ramp in capital spending is eminent as customer purchasing patterns have been varied compared to prior electronic cycles, particularly in semiconductor applications. We remain close to our customers, particularly with geopolitical issues in play.

Now turning to the financial outlook on Slide 14. We enter fiscal 2025 with approximately $580 million in backlog. The sequential backlog reduction is reflective of a paced return to more normalized levels.

Based on the combination of order entry backlog, current foreign exchange rates and anticipated end market expectations, we anticipate delivering sales in the range of 2% to 7% above fiscal 2024 sales. Full year 2025 adjusted earnings are forecasted to be in the range of neutral to 8% growth per diluted share.

For modeling purposes, in fiscal 2025, assume an estimated effective tax rate of 19% to 21%, capital expenditures of approximately $50 million to $60 million and interest expense of approximately $90 million to $100 million. This full year guidance assumes a negative 1.5% impact from foreign exchange rates, no significant recovery and ramp in electronics or agricultural end markets and the Atrion acquisition contributing approximately 6% growth at the midpoint of guidance. If we see improvements in our end markets, we will adjust.

Based on seasonality, we expect our fiscal first quarter to start modestly. As you will see on Slide 15, first quarter fiscal 2025 sales are forecasted in the range of $615 million to $655 million and adjusted earnings in the range of $1.95 to $2.15 per diluted share.

Even in uncertain times, our team delivers operational excellence and strong cash flow due to our strong competitive advantages. As a growth compounder, we will continue to reinvest in the business while returning cash to our shareholders. Again, I want to thank our employees, customers and shareholders for your continued support.

We will now open the phone lines for questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Mike Halloran from Baird.

[Michael Halloran, analyst]

Appreciate all the thoughts at the end there on the outlook and the conservatism in the first quarter and some of the variable order patterns. But maybe you could frame up how you're thinking about growth as it works through the year. It doesn't sound like you're embedding any fundamental improvement. Is the guidance assuming relatively normal seasonality, and maybe just give some thoughts on what your customers are saying or how you see these end markets cadencing as we work through the year.

[Sundaram Nagarajan, executive]

Mike, thank you for the question. We'll do it this way. Let me first give you what we're seeing in the end markets, and then Dan can walk you through the guidance and how we think -- how we have built the outlook.

Right. So let's start with -- all right. We'll start with IPS. In IPS, what I would tell you is the -- our consumer nondurable end markets seems to have a steady outlook. And there are parts that are really good, and then there are parts that are steady.

Further, our recurring revenue in this business is fairly high, as you know. And this has grown last year. We expect it to contribute nicely in the year.

On the headwinds, what I would share with you is that we are expecting large capital investments to be muted in the near term based on customer conversations and reduced backlog. Particularly in the polymer processing product line, we have seen reduced investments after record 2 sales record years of -- 2 years of sales and reduced investment in recycling and also some pushed out investments in virgin polymer in Asia.

We're also seeing slowness in automotive with our ICS business. Our agricultural precision ag business in Europe, things have stabilized, and we're cautiously awaiting the return there. So that's the puts and takes in IPS.

If you look at MFS, we do see modest growth in our fluid components business, which is sort of -- there is some exposure in biopharma. We're seeing order entry modestly pick up there. Fluid dispense business is also doing fairly steady. So these 2 businesses will offset the pressure we are seeing in our medical interventional business.

In our medical interventional product category, what we're finding out is that the OEM supply chain teams are far more conservative and cautious about their inventory purchases. And hence, we're seeing weakness in this product line. And remind you, this is about 47% of the segment's revenues. Long-term project pipelines look pretty strong for this product category.

In addition, Atrion addressable market increase for our business is a very positive development. And the growth in this segment would primarily come from Atrion acquisition.

The ATS business segment, what you find there is steady improvement and positive order entry to sustain the kind of growth rates you saw in the fourth quarter. We don't -- our assumptions are there is not a significant ramp in capital spending.

Mainly, we see the order patterns in this recovery far more choppier than we have seen in the past. We remain close to our customers. It is a number of geopolitical issues that are at play here, and that impacts this business. So that gives you sort of a broad overview of what we are experiencing in the end markets. And maybe let me have Dan walk you through how that plays into our outlook.

[Daniel Hopgood, executive]

Yes. Thanks, Naga. And the only thing that I might add just on the market overview is just -- and maybe this is more of a reminder on our ag business, while we've seen certainly our book and bill and order rates stabilize, we still have 1 quarter of tough comparables in Q1 in that business.

As you recall, Q1 of last year, we were working off a large backlog in our ag business. So we've seen the underlying business, as Naga said, is in a very good, stable place. But we've got one more tough comparable in Q1 in the ag business due to the backlog work off last year.

So that said, Mike, just to give you some color, if you think of the overall market outlook and basically think of flat organic growth for the year, what I would tell you is the sales profile if you look at our Q1 guidance in the full year, it's pretty much right in line with the seasonality that we would typically see in the business.

Q1 is always our lowest quarter, typically around 23% of our annual sales if you look at history, excluding acquisitions. And so I think you'll see that play out in our guidance.

The only anomaly that we see this year and it's not a big contributing factor, but it is a factor is the timing of Chinese New Year actually hits our first quarter this year whereas it hit our second quarter the last couple of years. So if anything, that just means Q1 will be slightly weaker than normal because we lose that production in Q1 that would typically hit us in Q2. But other than that, it's pretty much right in line with our seasonality that we've seen historically.

[Michael Halloran, analyst]

Okay. That was really helpful. On the electronics side in the fourth quarter, was there anything unusual? I mean was there just kind of a flush that happened because I know we've had some delays that have materialized. Was there just an element of finally getting some of those projects pushed through? Would you consider that the right run rate?

And then related, what are you seeing that gives you confidence that there's some modest improvement coming on the electronics side? I know the capital piece you're cautious on, but any kind of more subtext on where that improvement is coming from on the electronics side even if it is modest?

[Sundaram Nagarajan, executive]

Yes. Look, there are a couple of things that I would point to. First and foremost, we certainly are seeing strong continued conversations with our customers around projects and things that are coming our way. So that's number one.

Second, what we're beginning to see is those conversations beginning to translate into order entry. And that order entry is allowing us to deliver the kind of growth we did in the fourth quarter, probably the first time in a long, long time.

We are seeing parts revenue in that business also be pretty steady for us. The caution and conservatism is that we're not seeing significant capital spend. And so essentially, we are trying to be conservative here in trying to call this as the significant uptick. But the positive order trends in the business gives us confidence that this would be a pretty modest growth period for ATS in 2025.

[Michael Halloran, analyst]

And then just the fourth quarter piece, anything in the fourth quarter that you thought was an anomaly? Or is that relatively normal?

[Sundaram Nagarajan, executive]

Pretty normal.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Saree Boroditsky from Jefferies.

[Saree Boroditsky, analyst]

A couple of small items. You cited the backlog, including Atrion at $580 million, but could you just help us understand the backlog ex this acquisition?

[Sundaram Nagarajan, executive]

Yes. I think that -- Dan, do you want to take that, please?

[Daniel Hopgood, executive]

I'd tell you, the Atrion added about $35 million to the backlog. So we'd be in the $550 million range excluding that.

[Sundaram Nagarajan, executive]

Saree, if I would add one more thing to your backlog question, I know you didn't ask this, but I would give you some color around the backlog is remember, company's recurring revenue continues to expand. Today, it is north of 55%, more like 57%. And a significant portion of that is book and ship. So you got to put that into context when you're thinking about the backlog reduction as well.

[Saree Boroditsky, analyst]

I appreciate that. You mentioned the impact of the Chinese New Year on 1Q. I believe you've historically put those at a $15 million to $20 million sales impact. So would that be similar this year? And does this just get pushed to the second quarter?

[Daniel Hopgood, executive]

Yes. I think typically been in the, call it, in the 10 to 20 range. Yes, that's still appropriate. And yes, just timing between Q1 and Q2.

[Saree Boroditsky, analyst]

And just lastly for me. You've talked a lot about entering this year with conservative estimates. What would get you to the higher end of your full year guidance? Or maybe how do you think about potential upside to guidance in a more positive scenario?

[Daniel Hopgood, executive]

Do you want me to take that, Naga? I can...

[Sundaram Nagarajan, executive]

Yes, please.

[Daniel Hopgood, executive]

So no, it's a great question. And look, I think from the very -- hopefully, you get some color with -- we're not trying to call recoveries [indiscernible] markets. And when I look at the upper end of our guidance, it would anticipate stronger recovery in some of these end markets as you think of precision ag, as you think of our ATS and technology businesses.

And so I think that's -- if I were to look at the upper end, it would be a stronger recovery in the semiconductor and electronics markets. There would be some strong recovery in some of the general industrial and other markets versus kind of the status quo that we're seeing right now.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Christopher Glynn from Oppenheimer.

[Christopher Glynn, analyst]

Yes. Naga, I think early in the call, you talked about factory efficiency gains. And did you say you have inflecting efficiency gains? Just looking for a little more color on you're calling that out early in the call today.

[Sundaram Nagarajan, executive]

Yes. Look, this is -- as we continue to deploy NBS Next and begin to see the impact of NBS Next in our businesses, and you're also beginning to see product mix being helpful where when you have higher volume products, we are certainly making them a lot more efficiently than before.

So it's a combination of a couple of different things. It is the choice of products, but it is also efficiency of making them in a better way. Our on-time delivery has significantly improved in all of our businesses. That certainly helps us with efficiency. So a number of different factors, but pretty pleased with the progress we are making.

[Christopher Glynn, analyst]

Great. And with Atrion, it looks like the revenue trends are solid and growing if we prorate to a full quarter. Are EBITDA margins back in that high 20s range? And then curious what the D&A is now that you've owned it and probably the accounting settled out.

[Sundaram Nagarajan, executive]

Yes. Let me maybe give you just some broad color, and then Dan can sort of take some of the more financial questions. We're very pleased. We're very pleased with the integration. We are excited for our Atrion employees who have joined and are a big part of our story in the coming year.

Integration going well, revenue is progressing as we expected. We are making progress around the synergies that we had -- operating synergies that we had included in our model. All of that is coming out the way we think. Maybe let -- Dan, if you can provide some of those data points that Chris is looking for, that would great.

[Daniel Hopgood, executive]

Yes. And if you think of -- number one, appreciate the question. And yes, the acquisition is off to a really good start and performing certainly in line or even slightly ahead of early expectations, right? It's early.

But from an EBITDA standpoint, yes, they are absolutely -- we're very comfortable in that upper 20% range right now. And we also still feel very comfortable with our path towards more Nordson-like margins in the 2-year integration period.

From a D&A standpoint, it's -- their D&A is a little bit higher than ours, particularly when you factor in acquisition accounting. And so they'd be a little bit north of us from a percent standpoint on D&A, but not materially.

And then, yes, EBITDA in the upper [indiscernible]. And I think we're pretty comfortable and I'd say, 2 months, 3 months in now, even more comfortable with our path towards sustained margin improvement going forward.

[Christopher Glynn, analyst]

Great. If I could get a quick one on ATS, the implementation of NBS Next growth framework helps mix leverage. We just talked about that. I'm curious if the revenue run rate today, which was very healthy in the quarter, includes any things you've kind of attrited or minimized in the holistic NBS Next process?

[Sundaram Nagarajan, executive]

So let me take -- a couple of things that the team has done an incredible job of strategically repositioning this business during the downturn. And that is why you see the margin even at the beginning of a cycle, you can begin to see a 27% EBITDA. So well positioned that way.

A couple of additional points that I would make that our growth framework -- this has allowed the team now to reposition the business. We have a new manufacturing and distribution location in India that the team has been working on. That has positioned us really well to address the need of some of our customers who are trying to have a China plus one manufacturing strategy. So we are well positioned there. The growth from that location will begin to impact in 2025.

The second thing that I would tell you, the team has also used this time period to really invest in new products and innovation that will position us in the growth side of the applications that our customers have. And we are pretty excited about a couple of new products. One or 2 of them have won some very good industry recognition. And so a number of our strategy beginning to make an impact and our team strategically using this time to really position us for growth.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Matt Summerville from D.A. Davidson.

[Matt Summerville, analyst]

Yes. Can you maybe talk about the monthly order cadence you experienced in fiscal first quarter, what you're seeing thus far in fiscal Q1? And any discernible trends you'd call out pre or post the election with respect to order patterns? And then I have a follow-up.

[Daniel Hopgood, executive]

Yes. Again, I would say if you look at our guidance, it's largely reflective of what we're seeing in the near term. On the ATS side, the 4 -- we had 4% organic growth in Q4. And I think our order patterns would tell us that, that looks pretty sustainable. We're not seeing a big uptick from there. But certainly, we're seeing ongoing support for that return to nominal growth.

Similar story in our other segments. I would say our order patterns, A, support the guidance that we've given. And I think the one difference year-over-year that we're coming into now is we have kind of worked back to a normalized backlog. So that's certainly a factor year-over-year.

I would say that we haven't seen any discernible shift post election. I think it's a bit early. I think if I were to summarize what we're hearing, I think there's still some uncertainty. I think frankly, some of our customers are trying to wait and see a little bit to see how things are going to play out here.

And frankly, I think that some of the uncertainty that we're seeing in our near-term outlook, I think that will settle down certainly as things play out. But I think it's still pretty early innings. And people are still trying to figure out what decisions they should make and what the implications are going to be. I think -- Naga, I don't know if you want to add anything further, but that's kind of what we're hearing.

[Sundaram Nagarajan, executive]

So what I would add is it's certainly an uncertain macro environment. You see the same things we do. And I think that uncertain market environment is really playing into our conservative approach to what we are taking to the outlook.

Look, this could be -- it could be significantly better or it could be more challenging than we expect. But in general, we feel like we have taken the appropriate steps to be conservative based on what we see today and based on what we know today.

But I'll just remind you a couple of things. The company has a very strong operating model. We have a direct-to-customer model with differentiated products, high recurring revenue, diversified end markets, and NBS Next as a growth framework is beginning to be how we run the company.

So if you combine those trends and if you look at the operating excellence, the track record this team has had, if you take all of '24 and if you look at the EBITDA margin conversion, the incremental margins, that's well north of where we had guided in our Investor Day. So if you combine our competitive strengths, you combine our ability to operate under any different sets of conditions gives us confidence that the environment will be the environment, but Nordson will figure out a way to operate it and do fairly well and deliver cash and deliver strong EBITDA margins.

[Matt Summerville, analyst]

Just as a follow-up. Based on Dan's commentary, it sounds like you at least expect modest organic growth in ATS in fiscal '25 if I understood him correctly. Can you maybe just flush out then what your kind of baseline expectation is for organic at the segment level for IPS and MFS?

[Daniel Hopgood, executive]

Yes. We typically don't -- I appreciate the question. I think we typically don't give specific guidance on each of the segments. But I would say if you look at Q4, it's maybe a good precursor for what you'd expect going forward, right?

Our IPS business is pretty stable. And even in the medical, we've got some pluses and minuses. But generally, they're kind of holding serve, I'll call it, and given some of the uncertainty in the minimally invasive space.

And so yes. If you look at it overall, maybe that's the best way to answer your question. If you peel back our guidance, it's essentially 0 growth organically year-over-year with the growth coming from the Atrion acquisition and then a slight offset from FX based on current FX ranges. And if you factor in, let's call it, low single-digit growth or ongoing growth in ATS, that kind of tells you what the answer is for the other segments.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond from KeyBanc Capital Markets.

[Jeffrey Hammond, analyst]

So just on backlog. I know backlog got elevated during COVID and people kind of stretched out, made more orders and given the lead time issues. But just wondering if you think this backlog normalization is largely done, and what businesses would have seen the most kind of backlog normalization over the last year that would maybe set up a little bit of a tough comp?

[Sundaram Nagarajan, executive]

Yes. Let me start, and then Dan can add additional. Mostly, it is our system businesses, large system businesses. I think even a couple of quarters ago, when we continue to talk about this, we continue to see a reduction in backlog from plastic processing is one of the large system businesses. And industrial coatings is the other business.

And to some extent, we have large system orders in one part of our adhesive business. So those would be where we have typically seen order normalization. And it has been ongoing for a year, and you rightly point out.

[Jeffrey Hammond, analyst]

Okay. And then on polymer processing, is that just a tough comp dynamic? Is that a Europe issue? I think there was some recycling activity or something else that's hitting that.

[Sundaram Nagarajan, executive]

Yes, a couple of things there. Certainly, tough comps, right? 2 record years of sales, but you also have a reduction in investments in recycling in Europe as well as reduction in investment in virgin polymer production in Asia, particularly China.

So this business has been a huge contributor of our growth in the last couple of years. And now you have the cycle impacting them, and they're going to be down this year.

[Daniel Hopgood, executive]

Yes. I think the other thing just to maybe reiterate backlog normalization, our percentage of, call it, book-and-bill business continues to increase with our parts versus systems mix. Some of that's acquisition. Some of that's also what we've been doing organically.

And so we're approaching 60% overall. I think we're at 57% or right around there. It [indiscernible] up as far as parts and services. And so that -- as you're looking historically at the backlog, I think that's an important thing to consider as well.

[Jeffrey Hammond, analyst]

Yes. And then interventional destock, what are your customers telling you in terms of where inventories are? What's kind of built into the guide for when that kind of run its course?

[Daniel Hopgood, executive]

Yes. We're -- so as I said, if I were to put it [indiscernible], I would say it feels like we're kind of middle -- somewhere in the middle innings as far as working through the supply chain changes in the interventional businesses or product lines in particular.

And so we have some return to normalization, but we think that still has a little way to go to play out. And that's kind of how we're thinking about the year. This works its way out in another quarter or 2, and then we kind of get back to normal from there.

The only other thing I would point out on that is why we -- we've mentioned this in a couple of different conversations. We remain very comfortable with the long-term outlook and the prospects for growth in that business. And our pipeline is really what supports that.

We still see plenty of project activity line of sight to returning to normal growth in our interventional solutions business. We've already seen some of our component -- medical components in other areas return to normal growth. So we're very comfortable with the long-term prospects. It's really just trying to pick the exact timing of how this plays out is I think what we're continuing to work through with our customers.

[Sundaram Nagarajan, executive]

One thing I would add to that is in our interventional business, this is an area, again, using NBS Next, our growth framework portfolio approach to how we think about growth. Over the past 12 to 18 months, we have been investing in additional capacity in new areas of growth where there were modest positions for us prior to COVID, post-COVID and in the last 12 to 18 months, it's a new product category that we are investing in. And that will help us as we come out of this destocking situation.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Buscaglia from BNP.

[Andrew Buscaglia, analyst]

So just back to the full year outlook. So you're assuming no -- let's call it no or low -- very low organic growth at the midpoint, but EPS at the midpoint is still up. And I guess my confusion is MFS, probably margins are flat or down just given you have a dilutive -- some dilution with the acquisition.

ATS probably up because of -- if it grows, you [indiscernible] costs. You've taken costs out. So you have to assume some decent margin expansion in IPS despite what you're -- what's implied to be probably down or flat or down, probably down organic growth year. So how -- I guess are you -- is there additional cost-cutting coming? Or what -- how are you getting to such margin expansion, I guess, to get to the midpoint of that ESP?

[Daniel Hopgood, executive]

Yes. No, it's a great question. And here's what I would tell you. I mean if you look at our sales guidance and kind of take a normal incremental, I would say keep in mind that part of our NBS Next is continuing to run the company better. And we've also made some -- taken some actions in the form of restructuring to improve the cost base of the business going forward.

And so you're going to get some additional performance from an incremental standpoint year-over-year from those actions. In addition, keep in mind, we're starting the year with our debt at a high point. And as we delever throughout the [indiscernible], which we typically continue to do, that will also create leverage as the year plays out. And then you factor in the last item, which is a year-over-year improvement in our tax rate as we mentioned in the call, I think those 3 factors are kind of what drives that conversion.

[Andrew Buscaglia, analyst]

Yes. Okay. Okay. And then MFS too, just maybe touching on that, the margins there. It seems like things are going well as of now. But we -- you probably do see margins decline? Or do we see that these costs -- the cost savings in that side of things taking hold this year or midyear to get to some margin expansion in the back half?

[Daniel Hopgood, executive]

You're talking specific to the MFS business, to the MFS segment?

[Andrew Buscaglia, analyst]

Yes, just MFS.

[Daniel Hopgood, executive]

Okay. And really, I think you're asking about Atrion I assume, right?

[Andrew Buscaglia, analyst]

Yes, because it will be -- it seems to be dilutive, but maybe not as much as we initially thought.

[Daniel Hopgood, executive]

Yes. As I said, they're, I think, on a good path in the upper 20% range on EBITDA below our current, but to your point, not significantly dilutive. And our model factored in improvements in the first 1 to 2 years. And I think we're largely on track with that. And so I think you'll start to see some of that play out certainly next year or in 2025, but some of that will play out even into 2026 as well.

[Andrew Buscaglia, analyst]

Okay.

[Sundaram Nagarajan, executive]

Andrew, what I would add is integration going well. We have made adjustments in cost structures early. And -- but Dan -- what Dan is indicating to you for you is that our model calls for us over the next year to 2 is when we completely deliver on the synergies that we committed to. But we're off to a very good start, and margins in MFS are holding pretty nicely.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Walt Liptak from Seaport.

[Walter Liptak, analyst]

I'm going to try one about kind of orders and the comment that you made about not calling recoveries in the high end with some recovery. So what we've seen from some other industrial companies that have exposure to kind of medical and semicon is that they get sort of blanket orders or early orders in the year.

Like at what point will we know that there's not the recovery happening? Do you find it in the December quarter, the quarter that we're in? Or is it in the first quarter? And how important do you think for those larger systems are sort of early year orders that you deliver later on in the year?

[Daniel Hopgood, executive]

Yes. Maybe I'll take this. Again, maybe what I'll start with is I think what we're seeing now supports our current outlook. And I think the answer to your question is as Q1 and Q2 play out, I think we'll have a much better viewpoint on how the second half is going to play out.

Yes, it's interesting. There's a lot of discussions that are going on, but there's also a lot of hesitance. And so that's generally kind of back to the earlier comments, I think that's what we're generally seeing is just some uncertainty and a lot of plans. But those plans today are translated into, I'll say, guarded investments. And that's kind of what we're seeing in the near term. And I think as Q1 and Q2 play out, we'll have a much better viewpoint on what this looks like for the year.

[Walter Liptak, analyst]

Okay. Great. And...

[Sundaram Nagarajan, executive]

Walt, before you ask the follow-on, let me just add one thing. Look, this is based on what we know today. And should something change like you're suggesting might be or asking, we will adjust.

And particularly in the IPS area where large system orders are -- is one of the areas of concern. But ATS, though, the current order entry, the momentum that we see there clearly supports the kind of growth rate that we delivered in the fourth quarter.

[Walter Liptak, analyst]

Okay. Great. Okay. So the next question would be as we're talking about the hesitancy, the interest rates have been coming down, right, the election is over, and then are we talking about sort of the tariff issue and that's causing the uncertainty in the headwind? Is that what those comments are coming from? Or is it something else?

[Sundaram Nagarajan, executive]

Well, nobody obviously is telling us or describing why they're hesitant or we are -- what we can presume, certainly that may have some impact in their thinking. But Walt, it will be difficult for us to tell you exactly why some of our customers are hesitant.

All we can say is they're talking about projects, but there is a certain amount of hesitancy. There is going to be change in EV battery investments. There's going to be change in maybe solar, who knows, right? I mean lots -- the macro environment is different and certainly leads to some level of uncertainty. And that manifests itself as hesitancy in our customers. The geopolitical environment is not all that great. It's not stable environment to be in right now. So...

[Walter Liptak, analyst]

Yes, absolutely. So maybe a last one for me is thanks for pointing out the ATS EBITDA margins being really nice on sort of the bottom-ish part of the cycle. Where do you think you can get -- like in a normalized market, a couple, 2, 3 years from now, where do you think ATS margins go? Or maybe another way to look at it, what do you think the operating leverage will be as the revenue improves?

[Sundaram Nagarajan, executive]

Yes. I think it's really important to remember our ATS business at 27% EBITDA is probably a best in class among our peers, right? And it is an area where it requires a lot more investment in new products and technologies than any of our other businesses.

We typically invest 14%, 15% of revenues in this area. And you have to, to stay ahead of the competition, but more importantly, to be able to fully support your customers' needs about investing in technology as they bring [indiscernible].

So 27% EBITDA is a great place for us to be. We're looking to grow here. So any opportunity we can get to grow, we want to continue to grow this business rather than expand margins.

If you look at the total company, while you've seen this story for us, we were in the 27%, 26% EBITDA margin. We're now running in that 31, 32 ZIP code. Look, you're going to be a lot more happier as we continue to grow the top line of the company at strong incrementals rather than focused on EBITDA margins.

And I'd take the same comment for the company and apply to ATS, right? Really like 27%. We want to continue to grow the business.

[Operator]

And we have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Naga for some final closing remarks.

[Sundaram Nagarajan, executive]

Thank you for your time and attention on today's call. We're making great progress on the Ascend strategy. We are positioned really well as we enter fiscal 2025. I wish you a happy holiday season.

[Operator]

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.