Moderna Inc
NASDAQ:MRNA

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Moderna Inc
NASDAQ:MRNA
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Price: 41.25 USD 7.84% Market Closed
Market Cap: 15.9B USD
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Intrinsic Value

MRNA's intrinsic value estimate is unreliable because it is based only on its multiples and doesn't use a DCF valuation.

The intrinsic value of one MRNA stock under the Base Case scenario is 54.14 USD. Compared to the current market price of 41.25 USD, Moderna Inc is Undervalued by 24%.

The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:

MRNA Intrinsic Value
54.14 USD
Undervaluation 24%
Intrinsic Value
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Moderna Inc

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Backtest Conclusion
Very Attractive
Current Valuation
+45%
Avg Valuation
-12%
Worst Valuation
-49%
Best Valuation
+45%

Stock is trading at its lowest valuation over the past 5 years.

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Fundamental Analysis

Economic Moat
Moderna Inc

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Business Breakdown

Moderna Inc. emerged as a game-changer in the biotechnology sector, leveraging its groundbreaking mRNA technology to develop innovative vaccines and therapies. Founded in 2010, the company initially focused on utilizing messenger RNA to instruct cells to produce proteins that could fight off diseases. This vision became a reality when Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine received emergency use authorization in late 2020, marking a pivotal moment not only for public health but for the firm itself. As a player in the rapidly evolving pharmaceutical landscape, Moderna's success has spurred substantial recognition and investment, showcasing its potential to address not just infectious diseases but also ot...

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Financials
Annual
Quarterly
TTM
Annual
Quarterly
TTM

Balance Sheet Decomposition
Moderna Inc

Current Assets 9.7B
Cash & Short-Term Investments 6.9B
Receivables 1.8B
Other Current Assets 963m
Non-Current Assets 6.1B
Long-Term Investments 2.4B
PP&E 3.2B
Intangibles 93m
Other Non-Current Assets 521m
Current Liabilities 2.2B
Accounts Payable 373m
Accrued Liabilities 1.4B
Other Current Liabilities 431m
Non-Current Liabilities 1.7B
Long-Term Debt 625m
Other Non-Current Liabilities 1.1B
Efficiency

Earnings Waterfall
Moderna Inc

Revenue
5.1B USD
Cost of Revenue
-1.1B USD
Gross Profit
4B USD
Operating Expenses
-6.1B USD
Operating Income
-2.1B USD
Other Expenses
-89m USD
Net Income
-2.2B USD

Free Cash Flow Analysis
Moderna Inc

Last Value
3-Years Average
FCF Margin
Conversion Rate
Earnings Calls

In Q3 2024, Moderna achieved $1.9 billion in revenue, with a net income of $13 million, a significant turnaround from last year’s net loss. The company has reduced operating expenses by $500 million since Q1 2024, targeting a full-year product sales estimate between $3 billion and $3.5 billion. Notably, SG&A expenses are expected to drop 20% year-over-year to around $1.2 billion. Moderna holds a 40% share in the retail COVID-vaccine market, and anticipates fourth-quarter product sales ranging from $200 million to $500 million domestically. Furthermore, plans include securing 10 product approvals over the next three years to bolster growth.

What is Earnings Call?
Fundamental Scores

MRNA Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence

Moderna Inc's profitability score is 46/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.

Exceptional 3-Year Average ROE
Exceptional 3-Year Average ROIC
Positive Gross Profit
Negative Operating Income
46/100
Profitability
Score

Moderna Inc's profitability score is 46/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.

MRNA Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence

Moderna Inc's solvency score is 87/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.

High Altman Z-Score
Short-Term Solvency
Long-Term Solvency
Negative Net Debt
87/100
Solvency
Score

Moderna Inc's solvency score is 87/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.

Wall St
Price Targets

MRNA Price Targets Summary
Moderna Inc

Wall Street analysts forecast MRNA stock price to rise over the next 12 months.

According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MRNA is 78.59 USD with a low forecast of 31.31 USD and a high forecast of 222.6 USD.

Lowest
Price Target
31.31 USD
24% Downside
Average
Price Target
78.59 USD
91% Upside
Highest
Price Target
222.6 USD
440% Upside
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Dividends

Moderna Inc
does not pay dividends
Shareholder Yield

Current shareholder yield for MRNA is .

Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?

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Ownership

MRNA Insider Trading
Buy and sell transactions by insiders

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Profile

Moderna Inc Logo
Moderna Inc

Country

United States of America

Industry

Biotechnology

Market Cap

15.9B USD

Dividend Yield

0%

Description

Moderna, Inc. engages in the development of transformative medicines based on messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA). The company is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts and currently employs 2,700 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2018-12-07. The Company’s mRNA medicines are designed to direct the body’s cells to produce intracellular, membrane, or secreted proteins that have a therapeutic or preventive benefit with the potential to address a range of spectrum of diseases. The company is developing vaccines and therapeutics for infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, autoimmune and cardiovascular diseases, independently and with its strategic collaborators. The firm develops technologies that enable the development of mRNA medicines for diverse applications. The company has created modalities, including prophylactic vaccines, systemic secreted and cell surface therapeutics, cancer vaccines, intratumoral immuno-oncology, and systemic intracellular therapeutics. The firm develops technologies that enable the development of mRNA medicines.

Contact

MASSACHUSETTS
Cambridge
200 Technology Sq
+16177146500.0
www.modernatx.com

IPO

2018-12-07

Employees

2 700

Officers

CEO & Director
Mr. Stephane Bancel
President
Dr. Stephen Hoge M.D.
Chief Financial Officer
Mr. James M. Mock
Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary
Ms. Shannon Thyme Klinger
Chief Technical Operations & Quality Officer
Dr. Jerh Collins Ph.D.
Chief Information Officer
Mr. Brad Miller
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Senior VP & Head of Investor Relations
Ms. Lavina Talukdar CFA
Senior Director of Corporate Communications
Colleen Hussey
Chief Human Resources Officer
Ms. Tracey Franklin
Chief Development Officer
Dr. Melanie Ivarsson M.B.A., Ph.D.
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See Also

Discover More
What is the Intrinsic Value of one MRNA stock?

The intrinsic value of one MRNA stock under the Base Case scenario is 54.14 USD.

Is MRNA stock undervalued or overvalued?

Compared to the current market price of 41.25 USD, Moderna Inc is Undervalued by 24%.

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