Moderna Inc
NASDAQ:MRNA
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one MRNA stock under the Base Case scenario is 54.14 USD. Compared to the current market price of 41.25 USD, Moderna Inc is Undervalued by 24%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
Moderna Inc
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Fundamental Analysis
Economic Moat
Moderna Inc
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Moderna Inc. emerged as a game-changer in the biotechnology sector, leveraging its groundbreaking mRNA technology to develop innovative vaccines and therapies. Founded in 2010, the company initially focused on utilizing messenger RNA to instruct cells to produce proteins that could fight off diseases. This vision became a reality when Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine received emergency use authorization in late 2020, marking a pivotal moment not only for public health but for the firm itself. As a player in the rapidly evolving pharmaceutical landscape, Moderna's success has spurred substantial recognition and investment, showcasing its potential to address not just infectious diseases but also ot...
Moderna Inc. emerged as a game-changer in the biotechnology sector, leveraging its groundbreaking mRNA technology to develop innovative vaccines and therapies. Founded in 2010, the company initially focused on utilizing messenger RNA to instruct cells to produce proteins that could fight off diseases. This vision became a reality when Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine received emergency use authorization in late 2020, marking a pivotal moment not only for public health but for the firm itself. As a player in the rapidly evolving pharmaceutical landscape, Moderna's success has spurred substantial recognition and investment, showcasing its potential to address not just infectious diseases but also other serious health conditions such as cancer and rare genetic disorders.
From an investment perspective, Moderna embodies a blend of growth potential and cutting-edge technology, highlighted by its strong pipeline of mRNA-based therapeutics. With significant revenue generated from its COVID-19 vaccine, the company has been able to reinvest in research and development, enhancing its capabilities to tackle various diseases. Furthermore, as global vaccination efforts continue, Moderna's valuable partnerships with governments and healthcare organizations position it well for sustainable growth. Investors should consider the company's innovative approach, robust financial performance, and the potential for continued advancements in mRNA technology as key factors that could drive long-term value in an increasingly competitive biotech arena.
Moderna Inc. is primarily known for its role in the biotechnology sector, particularly in the development of messenger RNA (mRNA) therapeutics and vaccines. Here are the core business segments of Moderna:
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Vaccine Development: This is the most prominent segment, highlighted by the development of the mRNA COVID-19 vaccine (Spikevax). Moderna has been a leader in rapid vaccine development and distribution, leveraging its mRNA technology to create vaccinations against infectious diseases.
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Therapeutics Development: Beyond vaccines, Moderna is focused on developing mRNA-based therapeutics for various conditions, including cancer, cardiovascular diseases, and rare genetic disorders. This segment emphasizes the versatility of mRNA technology in drug development.
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Collaborations and Partnerships: Moderna engages in collaborations with governments, healthcare organizations, and other companies to advance its research and development initiatives. This includes partnerships for the development of vaccines and therapeutics, as well as strategic alliances to enhance its technological capabilities.
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Commercialization: Following the successful development of vaccines and therapeutics, Moderna's commercialization segment focuses on marketing and distributing its products. This includes efforts to expand access to its currently approved mRNA vaccines globally.
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Research and Development (R&D): A significant portion of Moderna’s resources is allocated to R&D, focusing on advancing its mRNA technology platform. This segment includes preclinical and clinical research, aimed at expanding the range of diseases that mRNA can address.
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Manufacturing: Moderna operates its own manufacturing facilities to produce mRNA vaccines and therapeutics. This vertical integration allows for greater control over the production process and ensures the quality and availability of its products.
By focusing on these core segments, Moderna aims to leverage its innovative mRNA technology to address various health challenges and expand its portfolio of therapeutics and vaccines.
Moderna, Inc. holds several unique competitive advantages over its rivals in the biotechnology and pharmaceutical sectors, particularly in the arena of mRNA technology. Here are some of the key advantages:
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Pioneering mRNA Technology: Moderna is a leader in mRNA (messenger RNA) technology, which played a pivotal role in the rapid development of its COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax. This technology allows for a faster and more efficient vaccine development process compared to traditional methods.
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Strong Intellectual Property Portfolio: Moderna has secured a robust portfolio of patents related to mRNA technology and its applications. This intellectual property provides a competitive edge, allowing the company to protect its innovations and create barriers for competitors.
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Established Manufacturing and Distribution Capability: The company has invested in high-capacity manufacturing facilities that can produce mRNA vaccines at scale. This infrastructure not only supports current products but also positions Moderna to efficiently scale up production for future vaccines and therapeutics.
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Strategic Partnerships: Moderna has formed strategic collaborations with various organizations, including government agencies (like BARDA) and established pharmaceutical companies. These partnerships enhance its research capabilities and market access.
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Diversified Pipeline: Beyond COVID-19 vaccines, Moderna is actively developing a broad pipeline of mRNA-based therapeutics targeting diseases such as HIV, cancer, and rare diseases. This diversification reduces dependence on any single product and enhances long-term growth prospects.
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Rapid Development Capability: The company demonstrated an unprecedented ability to accelerate vaccine development from concept to market in a matter of months during the COVID-19 pandemic. This agility can be replicated for other vaccine candidates, giving Moderna a time-to-market advantage over competitors.
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Robust Clinical Trials and Data: Moderna’s clinical trials have consistently shown strong safety and efficacy data, reinforcing its reputation in the market. A history of positive trial outcomes helps build investor and consumer confidence.
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Global Supply Chain and Distribution: The company has developed a global distribution network that enables it to deliver its products efficiently across various markets, further enhancing its competitive positioning.
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Focus on Personalized Medicine: Moderna is investing in personalized medicine approaches, such as individualized cancer vaccines, which could offer significant differentiation and potential higher pricing power in the future.
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Experienced Leadership and R&D Team: Moderna boasts a team with extensive experience in biotechnology, vaccine development, and business strategy, ensuring that the company is well-positioned to navigate the complexities of the market.
These competitive advantages create a strong foundation for Moderna to succeed and maintain market leadership in the rapidly evolving biotech landscape.
Moderna Inc., like any biotechnology and pharmaceutical company, is faced with various risks and challenges. Here are some key considerations that could impact the company in the near future:
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Competition: The biopharmaceutical sector is highly competitive. Companies like Pfizer-BioNTech, Johnson & Johnson, and others are developing mRNA and other vaccine technologies. The introduction of new COVID-19 vaccines or treatments from competitors could impact Moderna's market share.
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Regulatory Risks: Moderna's products are subject to extensive regulatory scrutiny. Any delays, rejections, or additional requirements from regulatory agencies like the FDA could impact their ability to bring products to market.
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Efficacy and Safety Concerns: Vaccine efficacy and safety are paramount. Any negative data emerging from clinical trials or post-market surveillance could adversely affect public perception and sales.
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Market Demand Fluctuation: The demand for COVID-19 vaccines may decline as vaccination rates stabilize and as the pandemic evolves. This could lead to revenue fluctuations and affect their overall financial performance.
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Supply Chain Disruptions: Supply chain issues can impact production capabilities. The raw materials required for mRNA vaccines can be sensitive to disruptions, which can affect the scale of production.
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Intellectual Property Challenges: The biotechnology field is rife with patent disputes. Legal challenges related to intellectual property could hinder their ability to operate freely in the market.
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Technological Risks: While mRNA technology represents a significant advancement, it also poses risks related to technology adoption and understanding. Challenges in scaling the technology for other diseases could limit diversification.
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Public Perception and Misinformation: Increased vaccine hesitancy and the spread of misinformation about vaccines could adversely affect demand for their products.
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Financial Risks: As a company that has experienced rapid growth, there may be risks associated with managing their finances effectively during periods of fluctuating revenue.
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Global Distribution Challenges: Ensuring worldwide access to vaccines, especially in developing countries, can be complicated due to logistical and regulatory hurdles.
By actively addressing these challenges and leveraging their strengths in mRNA technology, Moderna can navigate the complex landscape it faces in the coming years.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Moderna Inc
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Moderna Inc
Current Assets | 9.7B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 6.9B |
Receivables | 1.8B |
Other Current Assets | 963m |
Non-Current Assets | 6.1B |
Long-Term Investments | 2.4B |
PP&E | 3.2B |
Intangibles | 93m |
Other Non-Current Assets | 521m |
Current Liabilities | 2.2B |
Accounts Payable | 373m |
Accrued Liabilities | 1.4B |
Other Current Liabilities | 431m |
Non-Current Liabilities | 1.7B |
Long-Term Debt | 625m |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 1.1B |
Earnings Waterfall
Moderna Inc
Revenue
|
5.1B
USD
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Cost of Revenue
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-1.1B
USD
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Gross Profit
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4B
USD
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Operating Expenses
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-6.1B
USD
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Operating Income
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-2.1B
USD
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Other Expenses
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-89m
USD
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Net Income
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-2.2B
USD
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
Moderna Inc
USD | |
Free Cash Flow | USD |
In Q3 2024, Moderna achieved $1.9 billion in revenue, with a net income of $13 million, a significant turnaround from last year’s net loss. The company has reduced operating expenses by $500 million since Q1 2024, targeting a full-year product sales estimate between $3 billion and $3.5 billion. Notably, SG&A expenses are expected to drop 20% year-over-year to around $1.2 billion. Moderna holds a 40% share in the retail COVID-vaccine market, and anticipates fourth-quarter product sales ranging from $200 million to $500 million domestically. Furthermore, plans include securing 10 product approvals over the next three years to bolster growth.
What is Earnings Call?
MRNA Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Moderna Inc's profitability score is 46/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Moderna Inc's profitability score is 46/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
MRNA Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Moderna Inc's solvency score is 87/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Moderna Inc's solvency score is 87/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
MRNA Price Targets Summary
Moderna Inc
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MRNA is 78.59 USD with a low forecast of 31.31 USD and a high forecast of 222.6 USD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for MRNA is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Ownership
MRNA Insider Trading
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Description
Moderna, Inc. engages in the development of transformative medicines based on messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA). The company is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts and currently employs 2,700 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2018-12-07. The Company’s mRNA medicines are designed to direct the body’s cells to produce intracellular, membrane, or secreted proteins that have a therapeutic or preventive benefit with the potential to address a range of spectrum of diseases. The company is developing vaccines and therapeutics for infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, autoimmune and cardiovascular diseases, independently and with its strategic collaborators. The firm develops technologies that enable the development of mRNA medicines for diverse applications. The company has created modalities, including prophylactic vaccines, systemic secreted and cell surface therapeutics, cancer vaccines, intratumoral immuno-oncology, and systemic intracellular therapeutics. The firm develops technologies that enable the development of mRNA medicines.
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IPO
Employees
Officers
The intrinsic value of one MRNA stock under the Base Case scenario is 54.14 USD.
Compared to the current market price of 41.25 USD, Moderna Inc is Undervalued by 24%.