Ramaco Resources Inc
NASDAQ:METC
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Ramaco Resources Inc
Earnings Call Analysis
Q4-2023 Analysis
Ramaco Resources Inc
Ramaco Resources closed the fourth quarter of 2023 on a positive note, with significant operational and financial developments reported during their earnings call. The goal of doubling production from 3.5 million tons to 7 million tons of metallurgical coal over the next few years was a key highlight, reflecting their ambitious growth strategy. This increase in production, coupled with a new venture into rare earth elements (REE), showcased Ramaco's drive for diversification and expansion.
Financially, the company performed exceptionally well, hitting record quarters and generating $182 million in annual EBITDA along with record free cash flow. Despite challenges with muted pricing in the market, sales increased by 33% in the second half of 2023 compared to the first half. Ramaco is committed to reducing their debt, with plans to eliminate approximately $50 million in debt by the end of the year.
Randy Atkins, the Chairman and CEO, disclosed plans to adjust their coal production mix to favor low-vol and mid-vol to about 50% of overall production. This decision is informed by anticipated market crowding in the high-vol A space and an expected widening margin between premium low-vol and lower-tier high-vol coals. The company aims to leverage this to capture better margins. The strategic pivot to increase export sales has positioned Ramaco strongly, with a notable shift in their sales portfolio towards the Asian markets, now accounting for a significant portion of their revenue.
Operational improvements, such as increasing Elk Creek's processing capacity and starting production at the Maben surface mine, contributed to their strong performance. A newly purchased coal prep plant will be relocated to further drive down costs and improve margin efficiency. Furthermore, safety remains a priority for Ramaco, with the company recording the lowest incident rate in their history. These initiatives demonstrate Ramaco's focus on cost control, efficiency, and employee welfare.
On the innovation front, Ramaco is making headway on their Brook mine REE project. In the near term, they expect minimal capital expenditures as they continue to test and explore the best processing techniques for REE. Significant capacity investments are planned for the medium term, aiming to further boost production levels to over 7 million tons. As they work through the appropriate capital expenditures needed for this growth, they remain transparent with their investors on the planned investments and project timelines.
Shareholders have been rewarded with impressive market performance, with Ramaco's market value skyrocketing by over $500 million in 2023 alone to a combined market cap of roughly $1 billion. The company boasts the highest total shareholder return in their sector, reflecting investor confidence in their strategic direction and execution.
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Welcome to the Ramaco Resources Fourth Quarter 2023 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. Please note today's event is being recorded.
I would now like to turn the conference over to Jeremy Sussman, Chief Financial Officer of Ramaco Resources. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you. On behalf of Ramaco Resources, I'd like to welcome all of you to our Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. With me this morning is Randy Atkins, our Chairman and CEO; Chris Blanchard, our Chief Operating Officer; and Jason Fannin, our Chief Commercial Officer.
Before we start, I'd like to share our normal cautionary statement. Certain items discussed on today's call constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements represent Ramaco's expectations concerning future events. These statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are outside of Ramaco's control, which could cause actual results to differ materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking statements.
Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which it is made, and except as required by law, Ramaco does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. I'd like to remind you that you can find a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures that we plan to discuss today in our press release, which can be viewed on our website, ramacoresources.com. Lastly, I'd encourage everyone on this call to go on to our website and download today's investor presentation.
With that said, let me introduce our Chairman and CEO, Randy Atkins.
Thanks, Jeremy. Good morning to everyone. As always, thanks both for your interest and for joining the call. We have a lot of positive developments to unpack this morning since we spoke last November. I discuss then, over the past few years, we have tried to differentiate ourselves by aggressively but prudently growing our production and sales profile. In 2021 through last year, we doubled our production.
Our goals over the next few years are to again double our current 3.5 million ton level in met coal. And next, to hopefully add an intriguing and very valuable new line of business with rare earth. Looking back over the last few years, we invested almost $0.25 billion in capital for increased production and acquisition. That strategic investment in growth paid off for us in the second half of '23, again, letting us be consensus for the last 2 quarters.
I will let Jeremy provide the financial metrics where Q4 was the record quarter for us this year, and we printed $182 million in annual EBITDA and also had record free cash flow, all despite some muted pricing in the overall market. As we look down the road at our quality slate, we were aiming to essentially double our low-vol, mid-vol levels to about 50% of overall production with another 30% is high-vol A. Today, we are about 40% high-vol A and 30% low-vol.
In part, that decision is based on our organic reserve quality mix, but it's also based on what we perceive may be some future crowding in the high-vol A space. Several peers are slated to bring on as much as 6 million tons of new production in that blend over the '24 to '26 period. On the other hand, we see low-vol production is essentially flat with a fair amount of anticipated depletion from existing low-vol mines.
Moving forward, we expect spreads may start widening between premium low-vol and lower-tier high-vol coals and we hope to be able to capture that margin.
Turning to our fourth quarter performance. We managed to do well despite seeing not much strength in pricing over the back half of the year. This year's North American domestic settlements for '24, were down year-over-year about $40 a ton from '23.
While U.S. met indices rose in the fourth quarter, they also ended '23 more than 10% below Q1 levels. Our fourth quarter financially was fundamentally due to a sales increase of shipping at a 4 million-ton per annum run rate during the whole second half of '23. That was above of about 33% compared to our 3 million-ton per rate in the first half. We were also helped by the completion of the 1 million-ton increase in our processing capacity at our Elk Creek complex.
Moving to this year's sales and marketing. We took a balanced approach to our '24 domestic sales exposure and committed only about 1.5 million tons of coal to North American customers. We thought the offered pricing terms were pretty muted and probably at the bottom of the cycle when tenders were being negotiated last fall. Despite that, our average mixed, fixed domestic sales price of $167 per ton, was the highest '24 pricing figure among our publicly traded peers. By shaving back the level of our North American business, we pivoted to an increased export book, which will now be over 2/3 of this year's sales.
At the start of December, we had 2 million tons committed sales for '24. In the past 2 months, that number has almost doubled to 3.9 million tons, which means we are now basically 100% sold out at the low end of our original '24 production guidance. Fortunately, most of those sales have been in the works for some time, so we were able to move those tons without sacrificing pricing. We now hope to accelerate that sales growth as we move further into '24. As a result of that material increase in committed sales, as you know, we recently raised our '24 sales and production guidance. Depending upon continued market conditions, we hope to end the year with a sales jump of as much as 40% from '23 levels.
The profile our sales to date, interestingly, we have now begun to move significant tons into Asian markets. Two years ago, we didn't really have any Asian business. Now we will end up the year with north of 30% of our sales going to Asian customers. And all of 7 done, about 30% of our overall '24 book will be priced off Australian indexes, about 40% off Atlantic indexes and about 30% will be fixed price domestic. Jason will speak on the relativities of our pricing and also give most of our color on markets, but I'll add a few observations.
We now see European markets are somewhat spring loaded. It has been pushed down so hard over the past 1.5 years that we feel when it rebounds and many of the mills reopen, we may see somewhat of a pop in perhaps some supply dislocations in the Atlantic markets. We have historically done well in Europe and indeed were decent sized sellers even into Ukraine. When that whole situation eventually resolves itself, there could be an interesting turn.
In Asia, as I said, we were nowhere in this market 2 years ago. We are now a major supplier to Indonesia and other non-China markets. Despite the gloom around China, we see the other Asian markets is relatively healthy. We look forward to making further inroads in the region, particularly with our ability to leverage our increasing low-vol production slate.
Switching to operations. I want to complement our operating team first for a great safety record last year. I also want to note the great work on developing the 2 deep mine sections at our low-vol Berwind mine. Since September, Berwind has produced an annualized run rate of 600,000 tons. We are now planning to begin the third section in the next few months and hope to be at 1 million-ton run rate by year-end.
Cash mine cost at Berwind have currently been under $90 per ton from both deep sections. If this trend continues, and as we ultimately take the mine to 4 sections, we expect Berlin to be among the highest margin and lowest and largest production low-vol mine complexes in the country. Moving on to another low-vol project. Last month, we purchased a very reasonably priced $3 million existing coal prep plant, which will be relocated to our Maben complex. We will spend another $8 million this year to move, relocate and upgrade this plan. For cost comparison had we built a new plant of comparable capacity, the price was estimated at roughly $40 million. This plant should be operational by the fourth quarter of '24. It will meaningfully reduce both the current overall $40 per ton trucking cost as well as our cash mine costs.
The plant will have an ultimate annualized clean coal capacity of 1.3 million tons, far more than our 350,000 ton current surface and Highwall production. We will have the opportunity to add a good deal more deep tons to that complex in the years ahead as the market may dictate. Chris will also make some comments on Maben in his remarks.
Looking at our balance sheet. Last year, we were able to have the amount of debt on our books, and we started 2024 with about $50 million of term and equipment debt. Assuming current conditions continue, we look to retire all of that debt this year. And as I said earlier, we are also rapidly growing. Looking ahead, we are planning today for the notional increase in the amount of both sales and inventory we envision over the coming years.
Accordingly, we just executed a mandate with KeyBank on behalf of our banking syndicate to both increase and extend the size and term of our existing revolver. This facility will then have a base borrowing amount of $200 million with an additional $75 million accordion feature expansion as well as a new 5-year term. This is an increase from our existing $125 million facility, and we look to finalize all this in Q2.
Finally, with respect to our Brook mine rare earth project, we are aggressively working to advance the commercialization. We expect to receive the updated independent target exploration report from Weir international within 2 weeks. When we do, we will publish the report and I will provide an accompanying shareholder letter to explain the findings as well as the project's critical path and direction. We will also expect to host a separate analyst call to discuss its conclusion and respond to any investor questions. Also, I would be remiss not to note that on the back of our solid met coal execution this year, and the announcement of our REE discovery.
We were delighted that our shareholders enjoyed some very impressive results over the past year. In 2023, our market cap increased by over $500 million. Today, including the value of our Met CB shares, we have a combined market cap of roughly $1 billion. This compares to our market value of just over $100 million a few short years ago. Indeed, to start the year, we enjoyed the highest total shareholder return, which includes share price and dividends of any company in the coal and mining space. We had a 1-year return of roughly 200% and over 1,000% return for the 3-year period dating back to 2020. We are deeply appreciative of our investors' support from both long time as well as new shareholders, and we are working hard to continue to reward that support. In summary, this year promises some very positive results for Ramaco.
And with that, I will turn the floor over to the rest of our team to discuss finances, operations and markets. So Jeremy, please start us off with a rundown on financial metrics.
Thank you, Randy. As you noted, financially, we enjoyed a strong fourth quarter in 2023, which was easily our strongest quarter of the year. While U.S. metallurgical coal indices did rise in the fourth quarter compared to the prior 2 quarters, the indices were still more than 10% below Q1 levels.
Our strong Q4 was frankly due to both solid execution of our growth strategy and tight cost control. Specifically, in each of Q3 and Q4, we shipped at a 4 million-ton per annum run rate compared to a 3 million-ton per annum run rate in the first half.
In Q4, our margins expanded more than 50% versus Q3. Realized pricing was up 10% to $173 per ton on stronger indices. More importantly, cash cost per ton fell $7 sequentially on both a stronger absolute and relative contribution from our main Berwind mine, as Randy noted. In terms of financial metrics, adjusted EBITDA was $58 million in Q4 up almost 30% from Q3. Fourth quarter net income of $30 million was up more than 50% sequentially.
Now I want to make one point on net income and earnings per share. First, for comparative purposes, had we calculated EPS as we had in the past, I would note that Q4 fully diluted EPS would have been $0.68. That said, since we issued the tracking stock in mid-2023, GAAP accounting rules have frankly complicated our EPS calculations.
2024 will be our first full year with having a dual share class structure. I would note that the Class B dividend amount each quarter will affect the Class A EPS calculation alone. Adjusted EBITDA, net income and all other key items will not be affected. Based on our current outlook, I would expect quarterly 2024 Class A EPS to come in anywhere from 70% to 90% of how EPS would be calculated on a normal single share class estimate. For some guidance, the higher net income is the greater the percentage of EPS assigned to the Class A shares will likely be.
As a reminder, the Class A stock has just under 44 million shares outstanding. We are expecting first quarter shipments of 800,000 tons to 950,000 tons which is well below the run rate we anticipate for the full year. However, we anticipate building inventory in Q1 ahead of some larger term deals into Asia, which began in Q2 and also ahead of the Great Lakes, which opened in late March.
With that said, we anticipate both production and shipments to increase throughout the year with a meaningful uptick in the second half. Specifically, this second half increase will come from the addition of the more than 400,000 ton per annum RAM 3 surface and Highwall mine at Elk Creek and the 300,000-ton per annum third section at the Berwind mine.
Mine costs are also projected to decline each quarter throughout the year as volumes increase sequentially. For the full year, we are reiterating all key prior 2024 operational guidance, which you can find in our tables. I'll note that at the midpoint of guidance, we anticipate both production and sales up roughly 30% versus 2023, a slight decline in cash costs and a roughly 30% decline in CapEx.
Moving to the balance sheet. In Q4, we repaid the final $10 million of debt related to the 2022 Ramaco Coal acquisition. We ended 2023 with just $48 million of term debt outstanding, excluding the revolver, and $42 million of cash. Lastly, we finished 2023 with record year-end liquidity of $91 million compared to $49 million at year-end 2022. As Randy both said and provided specifics, we have just this week reached a preliminary agreement with KeyBank to increase and extend the terms of our revolver. We expect this to be finalized in Q2.
I would now like to turn the call over to our Chief Operating Officer, Chris Blanchard.
Thank you, Jeremy, and thank you to everyone who joined us this morning. I want to first start by reiterating how pleased and proud we are of the safety performance and environmental stewardship that we achieved in the field in 2023. We had overall our lowest incident rate in our history last year, and we are focused on improving and enhancing that performance as we move forward.
Looking back on 2023 operationally, it was a tale of 2 halves. The first half was constrained at both of our big complexes. We had delays in the preparation plant upgrade at Elk Creek and Berwind was completing its development mining to reach the thick Pocahontas #4 teams following the ignition event of 2022.
The second half, however, saw us increase preparation capacity at Elk Creek and begin the monetization of our inventory, which had built up. We also reached the long talked about main reserve at the Berwind mine and staff the mine and quickly reached and exceeded projected production levels. We also started our surface mine at Maben, which has run better than expected. The sales and marketing team has done an incredible job selling our inventory. Now as we turn into 2024, our operations will ramp up to meet these new elevated sales levels and work to double the size of our production over the next several years, as Randy has described. That work is underway at all 3 of our main complexes now.
At Elk Creek, after a couple of years with flat production, we've moved forward with the Ram #3 project. This will bring on 300,000 to 400,000 annualized additional production from a second surface mine and its accompanying Highwall Miner operation. This mine had been previously planned in both 2022 and 2023, but due to market conditions, the plant capacities and availabilities, it was postponed. Already in '24, we have broken ground and now expect our first surface tons in July with the Ram #3 Highwall Miner following with production beginning in October. The RAM #3 cost structure should match or beat the existing surface mine at Elk Creek, both increasing our overall volumes and also lowering the average Elk Creek cash costs.
At Berlin, as we discussed, both super sections are now in normal operation and since Q3 have been hitting targeted production. Our #1 section has reached the area where a series of air shafts and a new portal and elevator will be built. Once completed, this ventilation increase will allow the startup of our #3 section. With #3 sections operating later this year, we expect to be producing at nearly 1 million clean ton per year rate from the Berwind mine itself. With the investments Ramaco has made over the past several years at Berlin in the preparation plant in belt lines from the mine to the plant, and of course, in the purchase of the coal reserves, Berwind is finally poised to be among the lowest cost and largest premium low-vol complexes in the United States for many years.
Finally, at Maben, we are taking steps to grow that operation into a full stand-alone complex with the purchase and the relocation of the preparation plant to the Maben site. Work has begun on demolition of the existing plant and the first deliveries of components have begun this week. We anticipate the rebuild of the plant to begin in the summer and the plant to be commissioned late this year. The size of the plant, as purchased, will allow us to wash all current surface and Highwall Miner coal at Maben as well as any initial underground sections that are contemplated in the future.
As Maben grows, the modular plant design will allow us to quickly add upgrade circuits to the plant. Depending on market conditions, we believe the Maben complex, if totally greenlighted could eventually produce between 1.2 million to 1.5 million annual clean tons. However, in the near term, getting the initial preparation plant in operation will drive down our transportation costs and save us nearly $40 per clean ton on the raw coal haul bill that we currently bear.
Having the clean coal at Maben also opens this premium coal for shipment on both of the railroads as well as the river served customers. It is an exciting time for Ramaco operations. '24 and then the next couple of years will be eventful as we grow out our existing complexes and continue to look for other opportunistic ways to enhance shareholder value. As we grow, however, our primary focus will remain on safety performance, environmental stewardship and maintaining strict cost control at all of our existing and new operations.
Now for a more detailed discussion of the markets and the sales book, I would like to turn the call over to our Chief Commercial Officer, Jason Fannin.
Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone. I will share what we are seeing in the markets and our current and forward sales outlook. Global coking coal markets remain well supported, mainly due to lower supply because of continued underinvestment in the coal space. Economic conditions, steel market fundamentals and demand outlook continue to vary widely around the globe.
Integrated mills and coke batteries in the U.S. continue to run strong on the back of sustained steel demand and pricing levels. Brazil continues to struggle with low-cost steel imports and weak coke production, while economic conditions in Europe, along with high carbon taxes are keeping demand from rebounding there. Although many blast furnaces have returned to production to start the year with low utilization rates. One bright spot for U.S. producers during much of 2023 and continuing into 2024 has been the Pacific market ex China where Ramaco is now becoming a player.
We saw tremendous year-over-year demand growth in India. New coke batteries continuing to ramp up in Indonesia and traditional customers in South Korea and Japan, expanding their intakes of U.S. coking coal as they diversify and derisk their supply portfolio. Since our last call, we have effectively doubled our committed and sole position for 2024. Since December, as Randy said, we added 1.8 million tons of new sales essentially all to seaborne markets at index-linked pricing. This now brings our overall sole position to about 3.9 million tons, basically 100% of our original lower end sale of guidance.
As Randy also mentioned, during much of 2023, Ramaco focused its marketing efforts on the growing Asian markets, placing multiple test cargoes of all grades of coking coal, low-vol, mid-vol and high-vol into several different end users. The culmination of those efforts has resulted in a number of long-term offtake agreements across all ranks of our product portfolio with shipments beginning in earnest during Q2. At the same time, we have maintained and grown our business in North America and the Atlantic Basin with specific long-term partners who place incremental premium pricing value Ramaco's broad spectrum of low-ash, low-sulfur coking coals.
Turning to the current pricing environment. Index values have softened since the start of the year. China is trading water even though coal production has been cut back, India has a temporarily subdued market as elections there have slowed additional new infrastructure project announcements.
As of March 7, the U.S. East Coast index values were $257 per ton for low-vol, $249 per ton for high-vol A and $208 per ton for high-vol B. While Australian premium low-vol sat at $304 per ton. This dislocation between U.S. and Australian pricing has persisted since late September, with U.S. coking coals continuing to be fundamentally undervalued. During 2022, U.S. low-vol averaged 96% relativity to Australian POV and U.S. high-vol average a 99% relativity.
Those relativities have dropped substantially. And as of yesterday, stood at 85% and 82%, respectively. U.S. low-vol market is currently much tighter than the indices suggest. As Randy commented, we see demand continuing to outpace supply in the U.S. low-vol and mid-vol segment, where Ramaco is placing its bets and continues to focus on growing production. We see much of the near-term growth in U.S. coking coal supply in the high-vol space. Fortunately, we already placed much of a high-vol deduction into long-term offtake agreements prior to a lot of this additional new high-vol production coming to market. Regarding our sole pricing performance versus the markets, our low- and mid-vol coals sold into traditional markets have been sold at near parity to the U.S. low-vol index.
Our high-vol sales to traditional markets are at a modest discount to U.S. indices. Our sales in the Asian markets are priced against a basket of Australian indices along with typical freight differentials. Looking ahead, we hope to place a substantial amount of additional tonnage for the year in line with or perhaps exceeding our guidance.
With that said, I would now like to return the call to the operator for the Q&A portion of the call. Operator?
[Operator Instructions] Today's first question comes from Lucas Pipes with B. Riley Securities.
This is Nick Giles asking a question on behalf of Lucas. Congrats on the solid results here. My first question was around volume cadence. First quarter guidance was 800,000 tons to 950,000 tons. And I was wondering what would take you to the high or low end of that range? And then you mentioned a 5 million-ton run rate over the second half. And should we think about that as an even split or more weighted to 4Q?
Nick, it's Jeremy here. Good to hear from you. So I mean, sitting here at the beginning of March, there's always a lot of variability with rails and as we export more, you're going to end up on larger and larger vessels. So I mean, frankly, the difference between the low end and the high end this quarter is mostly on the logistics side, I would say. So obviously, we hope to be at the high end, but I think history has told us that while the rails have certainly improved.
At the end of the day, there's still some variability in there, hence the range. In terms of the cadence, I mean, I'd say volume will ramp up kind of each quarter. So if you're kind of thinking about a sales cadence, second quarter will probably be around 1 million tons. I'd say third quarter and fourth quarter is really where you're going to see the big step up, and frankly, fourth quarter a little bit higher than the third quarter, call it, 1.25 million tons, 1.3 million tons in Q4 and really -- I'll let Chris kind of touch a little bit about this, but the big delta is just as he talked about in his prepared remarks, when you bring the third section on at Berwind and the RAM #3 mines at Elk Creek. I mean, that's almost 3/4 1 million tons on an annualized basis. Chris, do you want to touch on a little bit on that?
Yes. Yes. So the cadence is, obviously, RAM surface mine, which is the smaller part of that complex will come in, in very end of the second quarter, beginning of the third quarter, and then we'll layer in the Highwall Miner at Elk Creek in the fourth quarter. And that will be the bulk of the production. And so that's why you get the step change on the Elk Creek side.
And then at Berwind on the low-vol, it's all based around the timing of our third section, which is ventilation dependent. So we'd love to start that earlier, but the reality is it really won't start up until third quarter. And then as we build the workforce and get it to normalized production, you'll see that step change in the fourth quarter, which has us exiting the year the 5 million-ton run rate.
Super helpful. My next question was just on quality mix. You provided a nice outlook on a full year basis. And I think you mentioned the Great Lakes picking up here in March. So how should we think about quality mix here in 1Q? And maybe how things would progress into the second quarter as well?
Yes. Nick, this is Jason. As far as Q1 goes, I think our quality mix will look quite a bit like it did in Q4. Certainly, as Chris mentioned, a lot of the production ramp coming in the back half of this year. which we'll see certainly more low volume. As you mentioned, RAM #3 was a smarter part of that uptick in the back half. Our Q1 production mix and quality mix essentially mirrored Q4 there.
Nick, one thing I'd point to the Slide 7, where we kind of give the breakdown. Randy touched upon it in his prepared remarks. But I think the thing to note there is the big change is on the low-vol side. So I mean, right now, we're at sort of a 40% low-vol mid-vol kind of a mix. As we move forward, ultimately, that will take us above kind of 50%. So I mean our mix, I'd say, in Q1 will look a little bit different obviously as -- than it will kind of when we exit the year as Berwind ramps and ultimately, you get a full year Maben and bring on more tons there as well.
Got it. Got it. If I could maybe just sneak one more on the market. I think you touched on the European market and cited lower utilization. I was wondering if you'd expect those operations to ramp up over the course of the year? Are you seeing any green sheets yet? Thanks for any additional comments.
Yes. So Nick, this is Jason again. Yes, I mean, as Randy mentioned, it seems like that market is kind of spring loaded for a rebound. I think there are several triggers that are -- it is going to be necessary to cause that. They've been so depressed now for the last couple of 3 years. Certainly, really since COVID and then the energy impacts after the Ukraine war began, we have grown business with certain customers there for the premium products. Those customers have a very, I'd say, strong outlook for this year as it goes forward.
Some of those customers have indeed restarted blast furnaces. I think some of the capacity holdbacks on those furnaces are an attempt to keep the steel pricing at a reasonable level for them. I think one of the big triggers for a rebound there would be some resolution in Ukraine. If you recall, prior to the war, they were taking upwards of 4 million tons a year from the U.S. That could be a big jump in demand out of the states, if and when that happens.
But certainly, there are shoots there and there are positive aspects there. It's just a matter of timing.
I'd also say, Nick, that on a macro, of course, Europe has been sort of behind the U.S. in terms of its perception of when interest rates may start to decline. But I do think if you see the U.S. decline at some point this year, you'll see Europe probably following its footsteps, not too much further after that. And I think that would be another catalyst towards seeing a little bit more economic activity over there.
Got it. Well, I really appreciate all the color. Congrats get on the quarter and continue best of luck.
Thanks, Nick.
[Operator Instructions] Our next question today comes from Nathan Martin with The Benchmark Company.
Maybe sticking with the slide deck real quick. I think it's Slide 6. You guys talk about medium-term production of approximately 7 million plus tons. Could you provide a little more color around that target, maybe how much CapEx that could possibly take, or at least how many years you guys foresee it taking to kind of get to that level, which I think, Randy, you said it's basically double what you guys did in 2023.
Yes. I think in terms of the cadence, we kind of look at that as probably a 3-year ramp. We bumped Elk Creek up to about 3.5 million tons. We have Berwind probably at a 1.5 million to 2 million-ton level. We haven't greenlighted Maben yet, but that would bump probably to about 1.5 million tons, give or take. And then we'd also have Knox Creek in there with, frankly, as much as just a little bit under 1 million tons. So actually, that adds up to a little bit more than $7 million, but we've got room for a little -- wiggle room in there. I think in terms of the CapEx, we've got to work through it. But I would say our main CapEx for this would probably be '25 million, '$26 million.
We to get to where we are right now in '24 moving even up to sort of a $4.5 plus million threshold. We're really bumping CapEx, only about $13 million from what we had originally come in at maybe in the sort of the low 60s, high $50 million range. And as we look further out, we will give you plenty of heads up as to what the numbers will be. But I would say our cadence would probably ramp for probably 2 years at about a doubling of that rate. And of course, that also includes maintenance CapEx, too. So our growth CapEx is going to be much less than that. But when we get to the point of laying all that out with any new guidance on specific projects, to take that up, we will be happy to provide all the CapEx numbers around it, growth CapEx that is.
Got it. Appreciate it, Randy. Maybe shifting over to the Brook mine and the potential rare earth element side of the house. You mentioned the expectation to get to Weir report, I think, over the next 2 weeks or so. What kind of information do you expect from that? And then separately, do you guys still anticipate receiving the report from SRK, I think you said previously by the end of the first half. And correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that should give us the first glimpse in the possible economics of the project as well.
Yes. So great question. So basically, to break it down, in the Weir report, we are going -- we essentially been putting up a tremendous amount like thousands of additional samples that have been tested since our first report. So that's what's given the time lag.
We've also gone back as we will explain and done some interesting new testing metrics that will be focused not only on tonnage, but more importantly, on concentrations. So I don't want to front load that because it's going to be out soon enough. And in terms of SRK, basically, what they were brought in to do was, of course, to help us determine the economics. And the way that, that cadence will roll is, first, you have to determine essentially what the chemical and metallurgic and minerallurgic character of the deposit is before you can really determine how the best processing techniques will be developed. And so that's, frankly, the process that we're in now.
And again, once we come out with the report, we will have a full disclosure of everything we're looking at. We just brought on board someone who is kind of now going to functionally run our rare earth effort, who's got a great deal of experience and background in this area. So we look forward to having a sort of an analyst call here probably sometime within the next month to be able to explain all the findings from the Weir report and also to give you sort of a critical path of how we're proceeding forward with the commercialization efforts.
Got it. Very helpful. Maybe just one more on CapEx and as it relates to what we're just talking about. I mean, if these reports come out, let's say, with positive results is there a possibility that CapEx moves up in 2024? Or are we still a little bit ways off before we look to start spending more material amounts on that project.
You're talking about on REEs or on met coal?
Yes. On REEs at the Brook mine, exactly.
Yes. We have spent exceedingly modest amounts sort of in the $3 million to $4 million range on our entire rare earth project to date. So you can do the math on what kind of return that's generated for us, at least from a market value standpoint, so our CapEx relating to the mine out there really won't begin to kick in until '25. And that is premised on the fact that we will come up with what is the appropriate processing technique that we will try to pursue. We've got a lot of testing to do before we come up with that conclusion. And once we get to that point, again, just like we always do with any of our CapEx, we will give you plenty of guidance on what that looks like. But I'm thinking not much CapEx even in '25. I would look to more CapEx probably be in the outer years.
And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Atkins and the management team for any closing remarks.
Great. Well, as always, we appreciate everybody being on the line this morning. We look forward to catching up here in a few months and thanks for your interest. Thanks very much.
Thank you, sir. This concludes today's conference call. We thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.