Open Lending Corp

NASDAQ:LPRO

Earnings Call Analysis

Revenue Beat Amidst Negative Estimates

Despite a negative change in estimate impacting profit share revenue, the company surpassed the high end of its revenue guidance for Q4 2023. Program fee revenues reached $13.5 million, with total revenues tempered by a $14.3 million negative adjustment. Operating expenses were $17.9 million, leading to an $8.3 million operating loss and a $4.8 million net loss. Adjusted EBITDA was at a $2.1 million loss, but would have been $12.2 million positive excluding the profit share estimate change. A robust $240.2 million in unrestricted cash underscores a strong balance sheet. The forecast for Q1 2024 estimates 24,000 to 28,000 certified loans, $26 to $30 million in total revenue, and $10 to $14 million in adjusted EBITDA.

Navigating Market Challenges with Resilience

The final quarter of 2023 proved to be a challenging yet resilient period for the company as they managed to exceed the high end of their guidance range for certified loans and revenues despite a negative change in profit share estimate. Program fee revenues were solid at $13.5 million, while claims administration fees and other revenue brought in $2.6 million. On the other hand, profit share revenue experienced a downturn, ending in the negative territory at $1.1 million due to an unfavorable estimate adjustment.

Adapting to Economic Cycles

The company is no stranger to economic cycles, and this period was marked by adjustments. The Q4 negative change in estimate of $14.3 million, due to higher delinquency rates and other factors such as the rapid decline in used vehicle values and lower than expected prepayments, contrasts the overall positive cumulative change in estimate since 2019, which stands at $5.6 million. These adjustments can swing the pendulum either in favor of or against operating results, signifying the company's need to be dynamically responsive to market conditions.

Strategic Measures to Mitigate Risk

Acknowledging the heightened risk environment, the company has instituted multiple price increases over the past two years, aiming to strike a balance with the risk level. Moreover, the introduction of an enhanced scorecard is expected to improve risk prediction and default rates, setting them up for more informed credit and pricing actions that should optimize performance across stakeholders.

Financial Health Amidst Operating Strains

From the fiscal stance, even as operating expenses saw a modest uptick from $17.2 million in Q4 2022 to $17.9 million in Q4 2023, the company swung from an operating income of $4.8 million to an operating loss of $8.3 million in the same quarter year-over-year. The net result aligned with this trajectory, with net losses deepening from $4.2 million to $4.8 million. Shareholder value reflected this downturn with an increase in loss per share from $0.03 to $0.04. However, when isolating the impact of profit share revenue change, adjusted EBITDA would have been $12.2 million rather than the reported loss of $2.1 million.

A Position of Strength for the Future

As the year closed, the company stood on solid ground with $374 million in total assets, a healthy $240.2 million in unrestricted cash, and a powerful war chest for share repurchases having acquired $37.3 million worth of shares at $7.13 each. With $20 million remaining in the repurchase program and no immediate debt maturities, they are well-prepared to manage market turbulence.

Forward-Looking Guidance Amidst Persistent Market Pressures

Looking ahead to Q1 2024, while market conditions are showing signs of stabilization, the company remains cautious, accounting for factors like inventory constraints, continued high vehicle prices and interest rates, and shifting lender underwriting standards. Their guidance for the first quarter is set for certified loans to be between 24,000 and 28,000, with total revenue expected to range from $26 million to $30 million and adjusted EBITDA forecasted to be between $10 million and $14 million, reflecting both current market realities and intrinsic organizational strengths.

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q4

[Operator]

Good afternoon, and welcome to Open Lending's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded.

On the call today are Keith Jezek, CEO; and Chuck Jehl, CFO. Earlier today, the company posted its fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings release and supplemental slides to its Investor Relations website.

In the release, You will find reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures discussed on this call.

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this call may contain estimated and other forward-looking statements that represent the company's view as of today, February 27, 2024. Open Lending disclaims any obligation to update these statements to reflect future events or circumstances.

Please refer to today's earnings release and a filing with the SEC for more information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied with such statements.

And now I'll pass the call over to Mr. Keith Jezek. Please go ahead.

[Keith Jezek, executive]

Thank you, operator, and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today for Open Lending's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call.

I am pleased to report that excluding a negative change in estimate associated with our profit share, we exceeded the high end of our guidance range for certified loans and revenues in the fourth quarter. I am proud of our team, and I'd like to thank each of our team members for delivering these results.

For the full year 2023, we certified nearly 123,000 loans and delivered total revenue of $117.5 million, adjusted EBITDA of $50.2 million and generated $75.5 million in cash before repurchasing $37.3 million in our common stock.

As I reflect on 2023, the automotive lending environment, which directly impacts open lending face constrained inventory levels, the highest Fed funds rate in over 20 years, a high consumer affordability index, which represents the weeks of income needed to purchase a vehicle and worsening credit availability and credit performance metrics. Additionally, credit unions experienced decades low share growth and the highest loan-to-share ratio since prior to the pandemic.

Against this market backdrop, we continue to improve our product and technology further refine our go-to-market strategy and invest in key talent to position us well for growth as industry conditions improve. We remain focused on our mission to change lives by making transportation affordable.

Notably, one of our most significant accomplishments in 2023 was launching an enhanced lenders protection proprietary scorecard in the fourth quarter. Our new scorecard includes 3 additional alternative data sources beyond LexisNexis. The additional data provides us with access to 350 million detailed transactions, over 170 million consumer checking accounts and an expanded suite of credit report attributes developed and maintained by TransUnion.

Our model leverages AI and machine learning algorithms and is trained and validated against a large set of proprietary lenders protection data to identify the most predictive credit risk attributes for our borrowers. We anticipate that over time, the new scorecard could lower default frequency by predicting risk, which we expect will improve our lenders, our carriers and ultimately Open Lending's performance.

This effort was recently recognized by the National Association of Federal Credit Unions, or NAFCU, who selected Open Lending as the winner of the 2023 NAFCU Innovation Award for our Enhanced Lenders Protection scorecard. The award recognizes companies making the most valuable and innovative contributions to credit union success, including groundbreaking advancements in technology and software.

In addition to the new scorecard, the team delivered on additional improvements to our product and technology in 2023, including improved our application underwriting logic to further align with our default probabilities, implemented a prequalified decision helping bolster our lender's ability to provide a better direct-to-consumer experience, developed and deployed a new claims adjudication platform to improve internal efficiency and turnaround time of our claims process and incorporated complex logic for decisioning that is difficult for lenders to implement in loan origination systems, thereby enhancing and improving our customers' daily workflows.

Through these actions and others, we have and will continue to implement improvements to our product and technology with the expectation of making it easier to do business with Open Lending.

Turning to our go-to-market execution. In the fourth quarter of 2023, we added 15 new accounts as compared to 19 in the prior year quarter. Of the accounts recently added, I am pleased to report that 20% of these were larger accounts. with combined total assets of almost $20 billion. In comparison in Q4 2022, only 5% were of a similar size. This is a testament to our focus on signing new accounts that are more likely to contribute meaningful certified loan volume, have lending capacity and operate loan origination systems for which we already have existing successful technology integrations.

In addition, we continue to closely monitor macroeconomic and auto sector conditions. First, I would like to provide further insights into the challenges we faced in 2023. On affordability, consumers faced elevated vehicle prices brought on by supply and demand shock, high interest rates and higher total cost of ownership with gas, insurance and maintenance expenses up almost 15% year-over-year. Auto industry loan delinquency rates reached 15-plus year highs as consumers continue to be stretched with declining savings rates, which was 3.7% in December 2023, down from a peak of over 30% in April 2020.

In addition, total credit card debt is now $1.13 trillion, which is up almost 15% year-over-year, indicating even more pressure on the consumer. In this environment, we have seen most all auto lenders tighten their underwriting standards and shift towards prime and super-prime consumers as lenders seek to perceive safety of these borrowers.

Credit unions continue to be challenged as they experienced the slowest share or deposit growth since 1991, with Q3 2023 share growth of 1.7% compared to the lowest level before FY 2023 of approximately 3.5%.

This, combined with high loan to share ratios has led to a slowdown in loan growth throughout 2023, impacting Open Lending as credit unions represent approximately 75% of our total cert volume.

Looking ahead to 2024, we do anticipate market stabilization. Cox Automotive recently released its 2024 forecast and called for a return to normalcy in the U.S. auto market. The report predicts 2024 will be the best year for Carbar since the pandemic. Cox is expecting vehicle inventory to rise in 2024, prices to decline slightly and incentives to be higher. Additionally, the interest rate environment has been stable since August 2023 and many signs point to potentially lower rates later this year.

Should that happen, we would expect that to be a benefit to consumer affordability.

For used vehicles specifically, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index or MUVVI, a leading indicator of wholesale used auto prices, declined 7% in 2023 compared to 2022, though the index remains approximately 35% higher than pre-pandemic levels. Cox's current forecast projects only a 0.5% increase in the MUVVI in 2024, suggesting used auto prices are unlikely to increase materially in the near term, which would be a net benefit for Open Lending.

Historically, these cycles in the automotive industry have always proven to rebound and are nearly always led by used autos. As you may have heard me say previously, consumers can defer the purchase of a new vehicle, but ultimately, they cannot defer the purchase of transportation.

Now turning to our core customer, credit unions. There are early signs of increased share growth. Preliminary data suggests average credit union share growth in Q4 2023 was 2% and [Audio Gap]

rated insurance carrier partners. We are pleased to have Core Specialty join us in adding to that stability on behalf of our lenders and the consumers they serve.

Secondly, we plan to expand our focus in the bank segment where we already have dozens of producing lenders and signed 2 new bank customers in FY 2023. We are investing in a dedicated team with existing relationships within community and regional banks who are capable of selling the unique value proposition of our product to this segment.

Based on our analysis, this is a very significant opportunity. And importantly, most participants in this market are larger than our average credit union customer. Additionally, based on our conversations with bank prospects, they have the lending capacity and the appetite to lend in this environment.

To wrap up, I would like to express my continued confidence in the long-term opportunities before us. I'm encouraged by the response of our team during these difficult times in our industry. I would like to again sincerely thank all of our team members for their efforts. I remain confident about our position in 2024 and beyond as we execute on our mission to change lives by making transportation affordable.

I believe our value proposition to the various players in the auto retail ecosystem is strong, in fact, strong as ever, and by executing on our priorities in 2024, we'll be well positioned to capture the pent-up demand as the auto industry inevitably recovers.

With that, I would like to turn the call over to Chuck to review Q4 results in further detail as well as provide our thoughts on the outlook for Q1 2024. Chuck?

[Charles Jehl, executive]

Thanks, Keith.

During the fourth quarter of 2023, we facilitated 26,263 certified loans compared to 34,550 certified loans in the fourth quarter of 2022. Total revenue for the fourth quarter of 2023 was $14.9 million, which includes an ASC 606 negative change in estimate of $14.3 million associated with our profit share compared to $26.8 million in revenue in the fourth quarter of 2022, which includes a negative change in estimate of $12.8 million.

Excluding the negative change in estimate in fourth quarter of 2023, we exceeded the high end of our guidance range for both certified loans and revenues. To break down total revenues in the fourth quarter program fee revenues were $13.5 million and claims administration fees and other revenue were $2.6 million, while profit share revenue was negative $1.1 million due to the impact of the previously mentioned negative change in estimate.

As a reminder, profit share revenue is comprised of the expected earned premiums less the expected claims to be paid over the life of the contracts and less expenses attributable to the program. The net profit share to us is 72%, and the monthly receipts from our insurance carrier partners reduce our contract asset.

Profit share revenue in the fourth quarter of 2023 associated with new originations was $13.2 million or $501 per certified loan as compared to $18.9 million or $546 per certified loan in the fourth quarter of 2022.

As a reminder, U.S. GAAP revenue recognition rules related to variable consideration require that we reevaluate the reported profit share revenue estimate for prior periods based on new available information each quarter. This process requires the evaluation of both internal and external information available during the period to quantify the change in estimate for the quarter.

Profit share change in estimate is a measure of current quarter cumulative actual data combined with changes to previously forecasted frequency of default, severity of loss and prepayments. In applying this accounting standard, to the extent new information presents a negative impact to previous forecast, the change in estimate will result in a negative impact to our operating results. And vice versa, when new available information represents a positive adjustment to previous forecast, this will result in a positive impact to our operating results.

The Q4 2023 $14.3 million negative change in estimate is associated with cumulative total profit share revenue recognized of over $380 million for periods dating back to ASC 606 implementation date in January of 2019 and represents over 400,000 insured in-force loans in the portfolio.

Importantly, to put this in perspective, the cumulative profit share change in estimate since 2019 is a positive $5.6 million, which includes the impact of the negative adjustment recognized in the fourth quarter of 2023. As Keith mentioned, auto industry delinquency rates have increased to 15-plus year highs, which we considered in combination with the higher-than-expected claim submissions and adjusting projections to reflect higher frequency of default, the primary driver of the current quarter negative change in estimate.

In addition, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index or MUVVI, declined faster than industry projections at the end of Q3 and as a result, severity of loss was also a negative factor in the current quarter. Lastly, lower-than-expected prepayments were a slightly favorable factor as premiums on loans in force remained in the portfolio longer than previously projected.

As you may recall, we implemented multiple price increases over the past 2 years to appropriately price for the risk that we are taking, and we will continue to evaluate further price adjustments. In addition to pricing, as Keith mentioned earlier, we launched an enhanced scorecard in late Q4 2023, which we anticipate will lower default frequency by better predicting risk. We are now better positioned to take additional targeted credit and pricing actions with a focus on driving improved performance for our lenders, our carrier partners and ultimately Open Lending.

Operating expenses were $17.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to $17.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2022. Operating loss was $8.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to operating income of $4.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2022.

Net loss for the fourth quarter of 2023 was $4.8 million compared to a net loss of $4.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2022. Basic and diluted loss per share was $0.04 in the fourth quarter of 2023 as compared to a loss of $0.03 in the previous year quarter.

Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter of 2023 was a loss of $2.1 million as compared to a profit of $8.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2022. Excluding profit share revenue change in estimate, we generated $12.2 million in adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter of 2023. There's a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures that can be found at the back of our earnings press release.

We exited the quarter with $374 million in total assets, of which $240.2 million was in unrestricted cash, $29.3 million in contract assets and $70.1 million in net deferred tax assets. We had $168.5 million in total liabilities, of which $145.3 million was an outstanding debt. In fiscal year 2023, we generated $75.5 million in cash before acquiring $37.3 million or 5.2 million shares of our common stock at an average price of $7.13 per share. We have $20 million remaining under our current share repurchase program, which expires at the end of the first quarter of 2024.

Now moving on to our Q1 2024 guidance. While we are encouraged that market conditions appear to be stabilizing, the following factors were considered in our Q1 2024 guidance. The continued impact of affordability due to constrained inventory levels continued elevated vehicle prices and high interest rates, total cost of ownership and, of course, inflation, continued lending capacity challenges at our credit unions, elevated cost of funds making credit unions less competitive when consumers have other options, tighter underwriting standards as lenders continue to shift their focus towards prime and super prime borrowers, and high percentage of cash buyers due to elevated interest rate environment.

Accordingly, our guidance for the first quarter of 2024 is as follows: total certified loans to be between 24,000 and 28,000; total revenue to be between $26 million and $30 million; and adjusted EBITDA to be between $10 million and $14 million.

We have a strong balance sheet, no near-term debt maturities and generate positive cash flow. -- all of which afford us the resilience needed to navigate current market conditions.

At Open Lending, we have navigated through these economic cycles before. Based on our analysis and experience, what is different in this cycle versus the prior 2 is the impact of inflation and how it is impacting our target market consumer. As the sector and macroeconomic conditions inevitably recover, we expect to capture pent-up demand and capitalize on the thoughtful and measured investments we have made during economically challenging times.

We'd like to thank everyone for joining us today, and we'll now take your questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Peter Heckmann with D.A. Davidson.

[Peter Heckmann, analyst]

Can you talk a little bit about the outlook for refinancing of auto loans. Rates seem to have reached a plateau here and may moderate. We didn't expect much in the fourth quarter. But I guess what are you thinking in terms of the appetite for some of your lending customers to resume some refinancing programs?

[Charles Jehl, executive]

Pete, it's Chuck. I'll start and Keith can jump in. But you're right. I mean we've seen rates stabilize since August, I guess, is the time frame that we've not seen any further actions. We're unlikely to see a cut in March is what I think what we're all hearing now, but they have stabilized a bit.

I think the key to us as we think about our refinance business -- and what really -- how it will really come back for us is really our primary customer credit unions and the lending capacity and just kind of being lent out. And even if there's an opportunity to refi, it's just having the ability to do that loan.

So -- and we believe that that's -- we've seen signs as Keith, in the prepared comments, said that's -- we've seen signs of improvement of that. But I don't know if you want to add anything else.

[Keith Jezek, executive]

Yes, that's a great question. I mean, we certainly believe that there will be very large pent-up demand for refi as these rates have been put on the books, as you're probably noting, in the last year at the highest rates in the last 25 years, so we anticipate a large pent-up demand for refi volume in the future. And in fact, it tipped up ever so slightly, just call it 1 percentage point and our certified loans in Q4.

[Peter Heckmann, analyst]

Got it. And then just in terms of the average size of institution. I haven't run all the numbers yet, but I guess we're really not seeing the benefit of that just because of the appetite for or the lack of appetite for underwriting a whole lot of loans below prime. Is that -- I mean, certainly, the number of -- I think you ended the year with, what, 470 or so active financial institutions. I mean, certainly, if we apply some of the metrics that we saw in prior periods to that, I mean there really is a significant potential for higher loan volumes as the market normalizes.

[Keith Jezek, executive]

Well, you raised a good point. Again, this is Keith speaking. There is no doubt, as you're well aware, our strategy over the last 18 months has been to focus solely on the larger accounts and as we begin to ramp up, these institutions will begin to add what we hope is significant volume as reflected in their larger asset size in general.

And as you've heard me talk about, we just want to make sure that we have the successful integrations already with their LOSs so we can install faster. And in fact, our time diverse volume further revenue has gone from roughly 180 days down below 100 days. So not only are we targeting the bigger accounts that we're able to get to first revenue much, much faster.

[Operator]

Next question comes from the line of David Scharf with JMP Securities.

[David Scharf, analyst]

Keith, I wanted to follow up on some of the commentary on credit union growth. You noticed the slowest deposit growth in, I guess, 25-plus years. Were you indicating -- I was writing down too quickly. Did you start to see some first signs of a rebound in the fourth quarter? Just trying to get a sense for in different rate environments, what the competitive aspects are of credit unions versus kind of regional and community banks, how they typically respond to a lower rate environment, what advantages and just how your value prop is either more or less compelling to a credit union in various rate environments.

Because increasingly, it seems like in recent quarters, the discussions have been focusing more on the liquidity of this customer as opposed to what's now a familiar refrain about the consumer side of your marketplace or credit union bottomed out.

[Keith Jezek, executive]

I'm sorry, can you repeat that last sentence?

[David Scharf, analyst]

I'm sorry. Really trying to get a sense. I mean, do you have a -- are you getting increasing conviction that credit union lending capacity is finally bottomed out?

[Keith Jezek, executive]

Well, yes, we saw signs, and that's what I tried to referred to in my opening remarks that we've seen an increase in share growth, which gives us great sign for optimism. But let's just first just take a quick step back.

Many lenders, including credit unions have taken a pause with the lag effect of the Fed's actions. And the Fed intended to tighten and slow down the economy and lo and behold they did, all of consumer finance is down. But what we're seeing is a continued to our start to share growth in our credit unions. And we think that the coming interest rate relief will lead to a reversal of deposit outflows. and will lead to -- so that will lead to the current tightening of consumer credit being only a temporary thing. Prior cycles have shown us that's only temporary, and they will get back to their core mission of community-based lending.

[David Scharf, analyst]

Got it. And maybe as a follow-up, just trying to once again sort of taking a step back from all of the different external shocks and unique aspects of this cycle. One of the themes that the company has always communicated is that part of the value proposition to potential new lenders is CECL relief. And instinctively, I would think in a higher loss environment where you're even -- where you're having to reserve for even greater lifetime losses upfront that the value prop would potentially be even greater. And it seems like in this environment, that hasn't necessarily been the case. Can you just talk about the conversations with potential clients during the sales cycle, how CECL relief is sort of playing into those discussions -- or are you just finding that a lot of potential lenders are just so bogged down right now and uncertainty that's not as much of a factor just yet.

[Keith Jezek, executive]

Well, this is Keith speaking. I love the new answer of your question because what we are seeing is in addition to being what we call in the industry lined out. So their loan-to-share ratio is being at decades high and with share growth being a decade low, they had to in 2023 for the first time, take on the CECL reserves. So it was this almost this triple whammy slow down the potential growth in lending.

Our value proposition, the discussions that we have around CECL are just as valid and just as valuable as ever before, and we're engaged weekly in conversation with the current customers and prospective customers about the value of the program to get them this much needed relief.

[Operator]

Next question comes from the line of Kyle Peterson with Needham & Company.

[Kyle Peterson, analyst]

I wanted to start off on some of the profit share and developments near ASC 606 adjustments. I just wanted to kind of get a sense of how you guys are thinking about at least in the 1Q guide, some of the different macro assumptions, just so we can kind of model in what the expected changes on the prior period developments are. Obviously, you've taken a couple of negative revisions in the last couple of quarters, but what are you guys assuming at least over the next couple of months here on that front?

[Charles Jehl, executive]

Kyle, it's Chuck. I'll start. Maybe we just step back and just kind of think about the industry a bit. The credit market has worsened throughout fiscal '23. For all participants and consumer savings eroded, credit card debt increased, delinquency rates increased and then loan loss across lenders continue to grow throughout the year. Delinquency for auto is 15-year plus highs. And despite Open Lending, if you think about our strength of our decision and pricing engine, we're not immune to the overall performance of credit like a lender. But it's important to note, we're not the lender. And we're dependent on defaults and -- delinquencies and defaults of the lenders and their servicing. So we're not a servicer. So I think that backdrop kind of points to delinquencies -- 60-plus day delinquencies in our book or 100 basis points better than the 60 plus in the non-prime in the industry. So we're 4.5%, 60 plus, and the industry is 5.5%.

I think -- as we think about the $14.3 million and what we booked in the quarter, and you think about the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index the MUVVI, what we're seeing right now are the worst-performing vintages, call it, late '21 and into '22, those vintages are put on the peak of the Manheim and in the highs, and that's the peak claims and defaults are 18 to 24 months out.

So that's what we're seeing in working through as a company and everybody in the industry is. So if you think about the $14.3 million we booked it was really just frequency of default was the main driver in the quarter. And then also severity of loss, the Manheim -- the MUVVI came down more than the industry expected, more than Cox expected and that impacted us as well. So those were 2 negative impacts.

And then there was prepay speeds were better than we projected, and that was a positive impact. So you put all that together, that's what generated the back book adjustment of the $14.3 million in the book. So as we think about moving forward in your comment, we feel like 18 to 24 months past those worst-performing vintages, we feel like we're well into and feel like hopefully that's something that is going to be behind us soon. So -- but I hope that's helpful. I just want to give a little bit of perspective on the kind of the back.

And the measures that we've taken, Keith mentioned in the prepared comments, we've implemented a new scorecard, ROP 2.0 card, going to be a better predictor of default delinquencies in default and the appropriate price for the risk and take less risk on certain different scores and credits. So we believe we're taking the appropriate actions to continue to protect our book.

[Kyle Peterson, analyst]

Helpful. I appreciate the color. And just a follow-up a little bit. I know there's been a lot of conversation with some of the different bank volatility and concerns about concentration, specifically in like some commercial real estate assets and such. But how your conversations gone, I guess, particularly with the bank clients, given some of the regulatory impetus to diversify the loan book. Has there been more appetite from some banks that might have historically skewed a little more commercial to maybe partner with you guys to diversify the loan book?

Or have you guys not seeing any impacts from some of the recent volatility with like your muni banks and such as of late.

[Keith Jezek, executive]

Yes. And this is Keith speaking. I think it's a good question. We were just at a large automotive finance conference last couple of weeks ago, and there's a heightened interest from banks to grow the book of business around auto and then specifically to kind of grow this book of business around this near and non-prime sector -- as you well know, they need to check all types of fair lending boxes and chief among those is the CRA, the Community Relief Act. -- there's a great deal of interest in growing this book of business with the bank segment. That's 1 of the reasons why, as I noted in our 24 priorities that we're focusing more heavily on that cohort.

[Operator]

Next question comes from the line of John Hecht with Jefferies.

[John Hecht, analyst]

First question is kind of how do we think about, I guess, seasonality of surf this year? I mean usually, there is a seasonal element to the business, but at the same time, you're talking about maybe trends bottoming out and maybe as you go through the year, you might get some organic growth kind of same-store sales type of activity with the newer counterparties that you guys have signed up. So I mean, do you -- do we think that certs sets which you kind of -- in the middle of the range, you kind of said flat in the first quarter from Q4. I mean is there a chance or an expectation that the CERT activity would grow throughout the year or will it follow more seasonal trends as we think about forecasting.

[Charles Jehl, executive]

John, it's Chuck. Yes, as we think about it, we're just putting out the quarterly guidance still, as you saw. And -- there's just so much going on in the puts and takes of the guide and the affordability around inventory levels, elevated prices, I could go on and on. We talked about lending capacity at the credit unions. Keith talked about the share growth or deposit growth. it's in the tightening with and focused on prime and super prime. It's a difficult time to really project that. So as you think about our flat from Q4 to Q1 in the guide, March is obviously a strong month for the company. And is the best.

And Q1 is not always the best quarter, but March is a seasonally strong month due to tax season, but you probably read as we did that there's delay on tax refunds and even dollar amounts of the refunds are even smaller. So -- so all of those things went into our inputs to the quarter. And as we think about full year, the timing of any Fed cut, we thought there might be a cut in March. It looks like that's not going to happen now. And hopefully, later in the year, we'll start to see that, but it's really hard to project.

[John Hecht, analyst]

Okay. And then thinking about program fees and profit share levels per se, I mean, is the current range? I mean, I think you've been around 520 program fees per cert for a little while. -- the profit share, it has kind of drifted lower. But as you reprice some of the premiums, where do we think those go on a trajectory basis.

[Charles Jehl, executive]

Yes, we'll start with program fees. It's all based on mix, right? I mean, in volume, we have the volume discounts on our program fees. So -- but I think modeling in that $520 range on average for program B is fine. And on profit share, around that $500 million, I think it's a good number to model. But we do have a new scorecard in place that we've talked about, and we're going to be better predicting this risk and the probability of default.

But even at the $500 profit share -- we've talked about this before to an ultimate loss ratio, we've stressed that new vintage, the Q4 vintage to about a 64% loss ratio. So -- and we're seeing the new vintages perform better than the older vintages that I talked about on my previous comment about the late '21, '22 vintages performing worse.

So there could be some room there, but that's -- we put it on the books at $500 million with that stress in the current environment, but they're hopeful it will perform a little better.

[Operator]

Next question comes from the line of John Davis with Raymond James.

[Unknown Analyst]

This is Taylor on for Jade. Just a follow up on the refi question. It looks like refis were about 5% of total sets during the quarter. So it's obviously been much higher previously, but still up quarter-over-quarter. So just curious how we should think about refi as a percent of total certs in 2024, just with the mentioned large pent-up demand.

[Charles Jehl, executive]

Well, quarter-over-quarter, refi 5% in the fourth quarter of '23 is actually down from 14% in Q4 '22. So it's been -- since the rate hikes and even starting in what, I guess, early '22 when the Fed started taking action, we went from a peak of 43% in February '22 down to just single digits on the refi. We still believe it's a great opportunity for us. And as our lenders have capacity and free up the balance sheet. It will come back because there's -- obviously, affordability, we talked about is huge to the near and non-prime consumer. And there's a lot of opportunity there to refi.

But to give you the exact percent of what that's going to be in '24, it's hard to say right now just based on the kind of the impacts to our core customer and the lending capacity challenges.

[Keith Jezek, executive]

And I would just add, and this is that we just think of it as a potential nice upside to the business absolutely. We know what will happen, and we know this, we call it a refi Tsunami will hit our shores. We're just not sure exactly when that will happen.

[Unknown Analyst]

Got you. That's helpful. And then just on adding any new OEMs, I think recently, you've mentioned multiple OEMs in the pipeline. So just curious if there's any update there on how conversations are progressing.

[Keith Jezek, executive]

Yes. Great question. And this is Keith. Progressing really nicely. As you've heard me say before, multiple large prospects in the pipeline, solid material progression through milestones throughout the sales process. These are long sales cycles. And we're cautiously optimistic that we'll have success with a couple of them. In addition to that, we keep adding just kind of larger enterprise-type accounts in and around the OEM captive space as well. So the pipeline is growing -- the progress to the pipeline is growing objectively, and we're very optimistic about the future with additional captives.

As you heard us say in the prepared remarks, the captives have now eclipsed all other lender types as the #1 source of auto loan originations in the U.S.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] There are no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the floor over to Keith Jezek for closing comments.

[Keith Jezek, executive]

Well, thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for your time today. I just wanted to say, as we look forward -- it's important to remember that the near and non-prime thin file and cut it in visible borrowers are not going away. These borrowers will find access to credit. Open Lending offers a unique solution that combines over 2 decades of credit risk with default insurance that allows all lenders to offer fair rates to these borrowers while meeting their individual yield targets. Thank you again. Thank you.

[Operator]

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.