Light & Wonder Inc

NASDAQ:LNW

Earnings Call Analysis

Solid Financial Growth in Q3

In the third quarter of 2024, Light & Wonder displayed a robust financial performance, achieving a consolidated revenue increase of 12% year-over-year, totaling $817 million. This marked the 14th consecutive quarter of revenue growth, driven across all business segments. The operating income grew to $159 million, reflecting an improvement of $12 million compared to the previous year, attributed largely to stronger revenue and margins.

Continued Momentum in Gaming Segment

The gaming segment showcased impressive results, with revenue soaring by 15% year-over-year to $537 million. Notably, global gaming machine sales surged by 38%, enhancing the overall performance of the segment. With an EBITDA of $267 million and a solid 50% EBITDA margin, the company remains focused on optimizing operations to capitalize on favorable market conditions.

IGaming and Social Casino Performance

Light & Wonder's iGaming sector achieved record revenues of $74 million, an increase of 6% year-over-year. Strong performance in North America and successful content launches contributed to this growth. Furthermore, the social casino segment maintained upward momentum, with SidePlay reporting 5% revenue growth to $206 million, supported by popular games driving record engagement.

Reinvestment and Future Growth Prospects

The company is committed to reinvesting in customer engagement and game development initiatives. Plans to enhance the direct-to-consumer platform were highlighted, which generated $25 million in revenue during the quarter, representing over 12% of SidePlay's total revenue. The payer conversion rate approached 11%, showcasing effective marketing strategies that are set to continue driving player growth.

Challenges and Mitigating Factors

Despite the positive outlook, the company noted some impacts from the Dragon Train game conversions and an ongoing litigation issue in Australia. However, 95% of the affected North American units have been converted to new games, minimizing revenue loss. The company expects low single-digit EBITDA growth in Q4 but anticipates a strong recovery trajectory for 2025, maintaining its firmed $1.4 billion consolidated EBITDA target.

Guidance for the Future

Looking ahead, the company introduced a target for adjusted NPATA in 2025, estimating between $565 million to $635 million. This complements the EBITDA target and suggests strong underlying performance as the company seeks to leverage its diverse gaming portfolio, enhanced operational efficiencies, and continued expansion into international markets.

Strategic Positioning and Outlook

With a healthy balance sheet featuring approximately $1.1 billion in liquidity, Light & Wonder is well-positioned to pursue strategic initiatives, including potential mergers and acquisitions. The company is optimistic about expanding its market share in burgeoning international markets such as Thailand and Japan, creating a promising landscape for future growth.

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q3

[Operator]

Hello, and welcome to the Light & Wonder 2024 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]

I will now turn the call over to Nick Zangari, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasury.

[Nick Zangari, executive]

Thank you, operator, and welcome, everyone, to our third quarter 2024 earnings conference call. With me today are Matt Wilson, our President and CEO; and Oliver Chao, our CFO.

During today's call, we will discuss our third quarter results and operating performance, followed by a question-and-answer session. Today's call will contain forward-looking statements that may involve certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed during the call. For information regarding these risks and uncertainties, please refer to our earnings materials relating to this call posted on our website and our filings with the SEC.

We will also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. A description of each non-GAAP measure and a reconciliation of each non-GAAP measure to the most directly comparable GAAP measure can be found in our earnings release located in the Investors section of our website.

As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. A replay of this webcast and accompanying materials will be archived in the Investors section of our website.

With that, I will now turn the call over to Matt.

[Matthew Wilson, executive]

Thank you, Nick, and hello, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. Before diving into the third quarter results, I'd like to congratulate the team for another strong showing at G2E, where we showcased Light & Wonder's strongest-ever content road map earlier last month with over 80 unique game titles across our high-performing [ Cabot. ] We've gotten great feedback from our customers and across the industry that we've certainly come a long way since the transformation, with games and offerings that are market-tested with an power.

Importantly, the success you are seeing is attributed to the diligent recalibration of our R&D engine, identifying and aligning resources to the most impactful initiatives that drive game performance. Just recently, we launched our newest studio in Reno, which will support our sustained growth aspirations well past 2025. And I'll be on my way to Light & Wonder's annual Best Games workshop shortly, an event where we all gather our game designers in a collaborative environment to experiment and innovate new ideas for the future.

This is the culture we are fostering, and the teams are excited to have the opportunity to engage with other game developers across the organization to support the next chapter of our growth.

Now turning to the quarter. We continue to see stability and resilience both industry-wide and within our operations. Our results for the third quarter can confirm our success as evidenced by our 12% increase in consolidated revenue year-over-year, representing our 14th consecutive quarter of consolidated revenue growth and 9th consecutive quarter of double-digit consolidated revenue growth.

Our global scale and the breadth and depth of our diverse portfolio positions us as a true end-to-end casino solutions provider, allowing us to capitalize on growth opportunities across land-based, social and iGaming channels. To that end, I'm also pleased to highlight that our growth has propelled us into the ASX 100 in Australia, as we continue to be 1 of the fastest growing companies with further prospects to growth on the horizon.

And now, on to our operational highlights. In gaming, we continue to see strong momentum in our Slots business, executing to our commercial strategy. Our operator partners recognize the value in our diverse cabin and franchise lineups, along with our robust road map, and that translated into the results we have posted throughout this year.

Our North American premium installed base has grown to 17 consecutive quarters and holding steady at approximately 50% of our total North American installed base as of the end of the quarter. We were able to convert approximately 25% of the footprint associated with approximately 2,200 Dragon Train units that were impacted by the preliminary injunction on the floor with gains from our deep portfolio of Evergreen franchises.

Additionally, we added 600 incremental units to the installed base compared to the prior quarter. This is a testament to the value proposition of our cabinets and games offer, and we will continue to work diligently to ensure the longevity and sustainability of our products.

Revenue per day in North America remained strong at over $49, maintaining the step-up you have seen as our game performance trended positively over the last 2 years through continued investment and optimization of our R&D engine. Game sales continues to fire on all cylinders, both domestically and internationally on record global shipments of over 13,000 units.

I would also like to note that Light & Wonder held the #1 ship share in North America in the second quarter, a segment that Dragon Train is not commercialized in any way. This performance is reflective of the power of our brands and portfolio as well as our expected commercialization strategy.

As we continue to expand our presence in adjacent markets, we recently announced our entry into the Manitoba VLT market. We expect our momentum to continue as we further proliferate in the adjacent and international markets, with a strong total product lineup that we have on offer.

Our strategy is simple, and that is to build and expand our suite of brands and franchises with engaging game mechanics that players enjoyed. Many of the legacy plans you see such as Dancing Drum, Ultimate Fire Link, and [indiscernible] and Planet Mora, Rising 777 and Quick Hit are just some of the staples you see on slot floors, and they continue to rank a top the performance chart.

Most recently, you saw us bring the #1 core title, Huff N' More Puff over to a lease model under the money management extension, and initial performance is phenomenal. Debuting is the #1 top indexing new premium leased WAP game.

With that, we're also introducing a Huff N' Puff Hard Hat addition, which we plan to offer on the highly successful [indiscernible] cabinet. Additionally, the in-demand Cosmic cabinet is also recognized as 1 of the most sought after in the industry. And we followed up with the COSMIC upright, which will be supported by our array of player favorite franchises.

Importantly, our continued improvement in R&D strategy has enhanced the heat rate of our games dramatically, and the robust product road map we have laid out ensures sustainability and optimal value with Light & Wonder's offerings. We are still in the very early inning and just starting to see the fruits of our investment over the past couple of years, and I'm excited for what's to come in the future.

Our customer-centric focus is also bringing significant commitments and reinvestment back into the systems business. Year-to-date, we've secured 10 deals with our most recent announcement highlighted by a suite of enhanced capabilities, adopted by our operator partners to complement their existing CMS. These wins show an increased level of confidence in Light & Wonder as a provider and our ability to deliver products that play a meaningful role for customers.

As a matter of fact, you are seeing us bring the same approach to electronic table games, with continued innovation on our Obsidian product as we roll out Auto Roulette in the hybrid stadium format. We are also reinforcing our leadership position in both shufflers and tables with a focus on building our recurring revenue bulk program where customers can enjoy our portfolio of engaging table games IP. My personal favorite is the double-down [indiscernible] Blackjack and exciting twist on the traditional game, which we've recently launched.

To sum it up, I'm very excited with the progress and outlook in our gaming business, and the consistent execution on our diverse portfolio gives me confidence that will drive sustainable growth in the gaming business over the long term.

Turning to SidePlay, where we continue to be a growth leader in social casino underpinned by our array of land-based franchises and cross-platform strategy. This quarter proves to be the same with our continued execution on our strategy as we delivered record monetization metrics. Growth was evident again across our 4 largest games, with quick hit lots and 88 Fortunes, both once again achieving record revenue.

Last quarter, we highlighted opportunities for incremental marketing spend, and that's reflected in what we've seen with engagement from new players as we build out new cohorts. Our team is one of the best in the industry in deploying the right amount of user acquisition resources to optimize return, with a focus on engagement and monetization to extend player lifetime value.

In fact, we continue to see healthy year-over-year growth across average revenue per daily active user and average monthly revenue per paying user, both key metrics driving the outsized growth we have seen over the last 2 years.

Food and game feature and player management is essential, and we've managed these assets well, staying nimble to changes in trends. We are adaptable to use the preferences with real-time updates, focused on delivering the best gaming experience to play. Data analytics is our strength, and we will continue to cross pollinate across SidePlay portfolio of games through our proprietary algorithm.

With regards to direct-to-consumer platform, I'm pleased to say that we continue to progress steadily in the direction we had planned for. As previously mentioned, this is a phase release, which we will continuously assess the repeat player engagement with broader rollout expected over the long term.

Overall, the confidence is high in our ability to optimize the SidePlay engine. In addition to executing to our core competencies, we will also want to introduce the scale of Newgate that are accretive and complementary to the portfolio for sustainable growth.

On to iGaming, a segment we continue to cultivate with the expansion of our game content and services portfolio, and where we took the #1 U.S. Slot GGR share in the quarter on the back of our franchise.

While we expect future market opportunities, we understand that execution on our product road map is key, and that is done by leveraging our vast library of land-based and digital native content as well as by scaling our aggregation platform to our advantage. I would note that comparisons were impacted by certain termination fees that benefited prior year quarter.

Overall, industry growth was strong in North America on record GGR levels and we capitalize on the opportunities with several key game launches, including Thundering Bay and Richie hand. We also launched World of Walker Pure Imagination, the second game in the series with Dangul by the [indiscernible] platform. Following outstanding performance from the initial [indiscernible] release in the first quarter.

Looking at the content spectrum broadly, our digital native studios continue to benefit from new game launches and the scale of our platform with Lightning Box GGR, up 38% year-over-year. Elk Studio once again capitalized on the successful Pirates franchise with its best ever released pirates through, which led to 30% GGR growth compared to the prior year period.

With the expansion of our portfolio and game services capabilities, we aspire to be more than just a leading slot content provider in the gaming space. Additionally, we also introduced our first cross-platform marketing Jackpot product, super carnotype with Loto-Quebec. We are well positioned with our leading products and services to capitalize on this rapidly growing sector and we will continue to innovate to position ourselves for future success and growth.

As we close out the year, I would like to express my sincerest gratitude to our commercial team and operator partners for their unwavering support over the past few months. We are very fortunate to have a dedicated team focused on solving problems at hand and long-lasting meaningful partnerships we have built with our customers over the past several years. I'm confident that we will grow together moving forward stronger than ever as a team.

Looking forward, the outlook remains promising. Our global presence and suite of products gives us confidence in our ability to navigate challenges while continuing to grow and innovate. Most importantly, we have the right group of people to execute on the collective vision to grow the business sustainably 1 step at a time through our strategy and product road map.

Above all, we will continue to invest in talent to drive future growth. We are truly just scratching the surface of our potential, and I'm excited for what's to come.

With that, I'll hand it over to Oliver to review the quarterly financials.

[Oliver Chow, executive]

Thanks, Matt. It's great to be with you all today. Our third quarter results reflect the collective hard work and dedication from our business units. Nearing the end of the third quarter, our team is working diligently to ensure stability and continuity throughout the organization and with external stakeholders to ensure minimal disruptions to the business, and our key performance metrics reflect our efforts.

As Matt mentioned, we are galvanized and expect continued year-over-year growth going forward as we march towards our 2025 consolidated AEBITDA target. That said, we continue to deliver on key financial performance metrics in the quarter, with consolidated revenue, up 12% year-over-year to $817 million, driven by performance across all 3 businesses.

Operating income was $159 million in the quarter, an increase of $12 million over the prior year, primarily due to higher revenue and strong margins. Net income attributed to L&W's per share, was $0.71 compared to $0.81 in the prior year period on higher restructuring and other costs, which included charges in the current year period related to certain legal matters.

Consolidated AEBITDA increased 12% to $319 million compared to prior year, resulting in consolidated AEBITDA margin of 39% for the quarter on sustained double-digit top line growth and stable margin contributions across the business.

Adjusted NPATA increased 23% year-over-year to $122 million in the quarter, primarily on revenue growth across our businesses. Adjusted NPATA per share increased 24% to $1.34 compared to $1.08 in the prior year period.

On to our business segments. We continue to make significant progress in the gaming business with deliberate execution of our commercial strategy and a diverse product road map. Revenue grew 15% year-over-year to $537 million in the quarter, once again led by global gaming machine sales growth of 38%.

AEBITDA was up 14% to $267 million compared to the prior year, driven by revenue growth in the period. Gaming AEBITDA margin was 50% in the quarter as we further optimize operations for margin opportunities, which is partially offset by product sales mix, including the impact from the Entain order that we previewed last quarter. This really highlights our optionality to leverage our optimization efforts for reinvestment or take it to the bottom line.

Gaming operations revenue increased 5% year-over-year as we continue to see growth in the North American installed base, up 7% to 33,151 units, led by the continued expansion in our premium footprint. Despite the adverse preliminary injunction impact to the last week of September, North American revenue per day increased 1% over the prior year period, reflecting the strong performance of our collective portfolio of games.

We expect some impact to North American revenue per day and installed base growth in our fourth quarter post-Dragon Train game conversions. However, we do expect continued growth in the North American installed base on tie-in units impacted by the injunction.

Global game sales was once again the standout performer as we continue to proliferate into all markets. Revenue was up 38%, primarily driven by growth in international sales as well as further expansions into the adjacencies, partially offset by some new and expansion units we shipped into Asia in the prior year period.

North American units were up 31% year-over-year, approaching 6,100 units, a record high in North America, while international increased 72%, primarily on the previously mentioned Entain deal, which had an impact on our global average sales price in the quarter and has a long tail recurring revenue component, making this an attractive deal for the company.

Systems revenue was flat in the quarter, primarily impacted by revenue timing, which we expect to realize in the fourth quarter. In addition to the deals we signed, the quality of our hardware is driving further upgrades which allows for enhanced all-around systems capabilities, maximizing our software's value proposition to optimize operator floors. Lastly, with respect to our cable products business, revenue growth was impacted by elevated utility sales to an international customer in the prior year period.

Turning to SidePlay. Revenue increased 5% year-over-year to $206 million, driven by the strong ongoing performance of our social casino games with record revenues from Quick Hit and 88 Fortunes. This is the 11th consecutive quarter that we outperformed the market as the team continues to execute the strategy. Further, our direct-to-consumer platform generated $25 million in revenue, accounting for over 12% of SidePlay's revenue in the quarter, contributing to an 8% increase in AEBITDA year-over-year to $66 million, and driving a AEBITDA margin expansion.

SidePlay margin was up 100 basis points versus prior year to 32%, with the lift from DTC, partially offset by the increased marketing costs that we previewed on our last call. We continue to roll out our DTC offering in phases, setting the stage for significant long-term growth and sustainable market presence for this channel.

We continue to achieve strong monetization metrics across the board, maintaining record high average revenue per daily active users at $1.04 in the quarter, up 8% year-over-year. While average monthly revenue per paying user was approximately $113, a 6% increase over prior year period.

Payer conversion rate continues to approach 11%, as we consistently deliver the best gaming experiences to our players to the breadth and depth of content and the diversity of our portfolio. We will continue to reinvest in user acquisition to expand our player base with a focus on our engagement and monetization initiatives with the opportunity for further deployment on high-return marketing spend in the fourth quarter.

SidePlay's proven track record and exceptional execution give me full confidence in the team's ability to drive sustainable growth. By capitalizing on our strong portfolio of game franchises and strategically reinvesting in the business, we are well positioned to maintain our leadership in this space.

On to iGaming, where we maintained record revenues of $74 million, up 6% year-over-year, driven by continued growth in the North American and European markets and successful content launches. AEBITDA was $24 million in the quarter, with AEBITDA margins of 32%, reflecting continued investment in our studios to increase game volume and scale the business.

As previously discussed, revenue and AEBITDA in the prior year period benefited from $3 million in certain termination fees, impacting revenue and AEBITDA growth by 4% and 12%, respectively. Importantly, GGR on our OGS aggregation platform continues to expand across the board, with Canada up 29% against prior year and North America at record levels in the quarter.

Wages processed through our iGaming platform totaled $22.8 billion during the quarter, another record high. We will continue to scale the iGaming business, leveraging our cross-platform strategy. With the extensive scale of our platform and the depth of our network as well as our growing portfolio of innovative offerings and market-centric content road map, we are uniquely positioned to capitalize on the opportunities ahead of us.

As you look around the success stories in the gaming industry, you will see that this is a culture and R&D-centric business where sustainable growth is not achieved through subtraction. We understand it is important for us to stay focused on our long-term aspirations without compromising what's core to the strategy, plus every decision we make here goes through a rigorous planning and decision process.

Staying nimble and adaptive is a hallmark of our organization. As a matter of fact, we've navigated dynamic environments and consistently delivered strong financial performance, as evidenced by the strong growth and larger outcomes that we achieved quarter after quarter.

That said, we continue to identify and execute on margin enhancement initiatives as part of our regular business review. Our key focus for us in optimizing operations by eliminating redundancies, accelerating system migrations for long-term efficiencies and prioritizing key initiatives by right-shoring and allocating resources to high-value projects to fuel top and bottom line growth.

One of our key advantages is our healthy balance sheet. At quarter end, we had approximately $1.1 billion of available liquidity, including approximately $350 million of cash on hand, enabling us to be strategic on multiple facets as we move forward.

Consolidated operating cash flow was $119 million in the quarter, and free cash flow was $83 million in the quarter, primarily on changes in working capital including the timing of collections of receivables related to long-term financing agreements such as the Entain deal.

Overall, we expect annual cash conversion to trend positively over time as we continue to scale and optimize for efficiency. We move towards the lower end of our targeted net debt leverage ratio range of 2.5x to 3.5x, ending at 2.9x in the quarter, and we continue to preserve the options and flexibility to execute on our capital allocation blueprint.

We remain opportunistic with share repurchases in addition to programmatic buybacks we have previously implemented. During the quarter, we returned approximately $44 million of capital to shareholders through buybacks. And we believe there is a tremendous amount of value to be realized here as we continue to grow our earnings and free cash flow. Additionally, we will continue to reinvest into the business through R&D and CapEx. And enhancing our capabilities to drive sustainable growth and bolster our industry leadership positions.

As for M&A, our position remains consistent. We will continue to look at options that are complementary to our core business with a disciplined approach to the extent that these opportunities are accretive and exceed our return thresholds.

With some of the recent announcements and developments, I would like to provide some clarity as we're nearing the end of 2024. We expect growth in consolidated EBITDA to be above 10% for the full year, even with the near-term impact of the Dragon Train injunction. Our mitigation efforts position us well for an expected return to our growth trajectory in 2025, remaining on track for our firmed $1.4 billion consolidated EBITDA target, underpinned by our high-performing games and robust road map, which continues to gain traction, both domestically and internationally.

Corporate costs will be impacted by timing of legal developments, and we do not anticipate any material changes from what we discussed last quarter. I'm also happy to introduce a target adjusted NPATA range for 2025 of $565 million to $635 million to supplement our 2025 consolidated EBITDA target of $1.4 billion, for our diverse set of investors that are tuned to a range of financial and business performance metrics.

The highly cash-generative nature of the business, combined with a healthy balance sheet and strategic capital allocation program has proven to be a strong framework to drive shareholder value creation. I am encouraged to be working with the best in the business and remain highly confident in our journey as a compounder of growth over the long run.

And now, we'll turn it over to the operator for your questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] And the first question go to Barry Jonas of Truist.

[David Katz, analyst]

Guys, I was wondering if you could talk more about how the Dragon Train mitigation efforts are going for both the domestic and international markets.

[Matthew Wilson, executive]

Yes. Thanks, Barry. First of all, I like to thank the team. We had a big disruption happened late in the quarter. And you can see here the team pulled together and delivered another outstanding set of results, 12% revenue growth, 12% [indiscernible] growth. I think it's a testament to the quality of the team and the culture that we're building.

I think that there's 2 kind of universes that we should talk about when it comes to the Dragon Train mitigation assets. The first is the North American premium gaming ops installed base. We said we had about 2,200 units installed in the U.S. We've been able to convert 95% of those games to new titles, titles like Ultimate Filing and Invaders. We've got some more games coming to support that base.

So we've lost less than 100 units in the North American installed base, which I think is a great outcome. I think it's a testament to the customer support of Light & Wonder. They want a healthy competitive environment. That's what we're providing, and so you want to publicly thank our customer base for supporting us through this.

So yes, like I said, a good range of gains coming into that installed base to make sure we keep those in the field. We had a game in submission called Huff N' Puff Hard Hat Edition. That's an extension of our #1 performing game, Huff' N 'EVEN Puff. So that will go into the installed base. So I'm confident we can maintain so base goes forward and then we grow off the back of the new product introductions that we showed at G2E.

The second kind of universe of mitigation efforts is really the Australian market. That's the sale market where Dragon Train is really dominated our pipeline. Happy to say we've shifted our focus in the pipeline to some new games. We launched a product at AGE earlier this year called Shenlong Unleash. It got a lot of kudos from the market, was clearly a best-in-show type product. It's gone live in Australia right now and it's performing very well.

Happy to say through the midpoint of November, we're the #1 ship share provider in the Australian market still, and we haven't commercialized a single Dragon Train product down there. So lots of momentum is still underway. I think it just speaks to the depth and the breadth of the portfolio. Dragon Train was 1 game of 130 that we make every year, but we've got this diverse portfolio of designers, building great games in lots of segments across the gaming globe. So I feel confident about that.

[Oliver Chow, executive]

Yes. And Matt, just to kind of build on that. Yes, just quickly, Barry, just from a Q3 perspective. Obviously, we saw minimal impact there just based on the timing of when the injunction actually went in place in the last, last week of September. They were, let's say, modest kind of conversion costs that will impact Q4. we will likely have a slight RPD impact just based on the timing of the conversions.

But as Mattias mentioned, we'll continue to kind of monitor performance at collaborate with our customers here over the next to months to ensure that we retain the spots on the floor.p I think in terms of legal expenses, corporate costs will obviously be impacted just based on the timing of the developments on the legal front.

But as I mentioned earlier, we don't anticipate any major material changes to the numbers that we guided to late last year. So I think overall, we expect, I think, a low single-digit year-over-year EBITDA growth during Q4, but that's going to be driving over 10% growth from a full year point of view, and we'll return back to kind of this normalized growth rate in 2025, just underpinned by all the great games that Matt mentioned earlier.

[Operator]

The next question goes to David Katz of Jefferies. David.

[David Katz, analyst]

I just wanted to follow on to that and you talk about sort of the timing of new intros particularly in the premium categories. Specifically, if we could get maybe some update on Huff N' Puff, which is, again, we've heard some stuff about out in the market.

[Jeffrey Stantial, analyst]

Yes, happy to take that one. Thanks, David. Yes. So we were building a diverse portfolio beyond Dragon train, like I said, 1 game in the portfolio. I think what you saw [indiscernible] 2, and I know you were there as many of us were on display, it and under both was really a manifestation of who we are as an organization.

If you think about Light & Wonder, we came together through M&A. So really types of industries, companies like valleys and WMS and Shuffle Master. And each 1 of these companies had a great set of franchises under the hood. I think you saw that on full display at G2E. So you saw new versions of dancing drones, you saw a new burden of Ultimate filing, new versions of in betas and Planet Woowa. And importantly, the 1 that you mentioned a Half N' Puff from what we've been able to do to kind of build that franchise beyond just the original game.

I think this is what our team does best. The best in the industry are at taking Huff N' Puff, which is a 10-year-old game reinvigorating that into an even more part became the #1 game in the facile market in North America, making a new incarnation of that called Huff N' Puff money mansion, which is now the #1 performing game in the premium gaming ops installed base. And you saw many more versions of that on the show floor at G2E.

We feel like this is the type of franchise that can be a contributor for a decade in the portfolio in lots of different ways. We actually have our test games workshop on at the moment down in Southern California, where the teams getting together to think about how do they bring that brand to life in lots of different creative ways across all of our channels, not just land based, but also social casino and iGaming.

So G2E, for us, was a selling show. A lot of what you saw on the floor is actually ready for commercialization now. We launched a new cabinet at the show. So this is COSMIC Upright. It's an extension of the [indiscernible] porter. The [indiscernible] been the #1 cabinet in the marketplace. -- for about the last year.

So we're going to launch that late in Q4. We're going to build momentum on that into the first quarter of next year. So I think between the combination of holding on to the fleet that we have that was Dragon Train with new games and then really leveraging this new investment in COSMIC Upright and these brands that we showed at the G2E showing means we'll kind of continue that gaming ops installed base growth throughout 2025. So really confident that the portfolio is well set up for success as we roll into '25 here.

[Operator]

The next question goes to David Fabris of Macquarie.

[David Fabris, analyst]

Look, I was wondering if you could comment on discussions with customers in the North American market at an industry level? I mean, firstly, can you provide any insights on customer budgets? I guess I'm curious to understand where the volumes are sustainable at current level.

And then secondly to that, just within gaming off, there's been a lot of debate whether premium gaming ops are fully penetrated at casinos. So your thoughts on whether this can increase or maybe it reduces as part of the floors going forward?

[Matthew Wilson, executive]

Yes, great question. Obviously, the macro is something we've been talking about on earnings goals for the last I'd say, 3 years. I mean we all look at it with a healthy level of paranoia to see how the map are going to impact the gaming segment. I think what we see from our vantage point, the macro is largely supportive of a replacement market, consistent with '24 as we move into '25. That's what we're hearing from customers. Obviously, not all customers are made alike. There's corporate customers and tribal customers. But in the aggregate, we feel like the '25 replacement market is set up nicely. And our job really is to take maximum share from that market.

Proud to say, in the second quarter, we were the #1 supplier in the U.S. from a ship share perspective. We'll see where everyone puts in Q3, but we feel like we might have maintained that in Q3 as well. I think importantly, we've worked really hard as a team to diversify our business away from purely a Class III replacement business. This is the adjacency that we've spoken about.

So bringing new addressable markets online like Oregon State Lottery, Canadian, VLPs, Georgia Callan, HHR. These are all discrete unique addressable markets that we can get into and take share in. So that really is part of what you're seeing in terms of the shift share improvements for our organization is a laddering up for these opportunities.

I think also, importantly, the diversification across geographies, you can see a really big order here for our U.K. business, which is a unique thing for us. So making a big contribution to this quarter's game sales numbers. Also, we've got a market leadership position in Asia.

Like I said, through the midpoint of November, we're the #1 ship share provider in Australia. So I think the U.S. Class III replacement market is really important for the health of the industry. We see that being positive for us into '25, but we've worked really hard Savona Nepenthe Mail team diversify the business across geographies, across product lines, across adjacencies. I think that strategy is really coming to fruition at the moment.

I think the second part of your question has been a curious one, and we've had a lot of dialogue about this investors about what's driving the expansion in gaming ops in terms of the installed base in North America? I think the logic that's really driving that expansion is, I think operators realize that their best players want to play the best games. And it's kind of false economics to constrain the amount of the best piles on the floor to preserve costs when your best players won't play those games.

And so I think you're seeing operators expanding the footprint of their highest performing games, and I think that's driving that business forward. So we see that maintaining at these levels or maybe even ticking up, but we think that's a net positive just for the economics in the sector.

[Operator]

The next question goes to Rohan Gallagher of Jarden. Rohan.

[Rohan Gallagher, analyst]

Matt, I'll like to all the Neste on the call. I was going to ask about car allocation, but in the results just released, you provided 2 new pieces of guidance, I suppose, EBITDA guidance and the introduction of an NPATA guidance for FY '25?

Can you clarify and confirm the Q4 or unpack the moving parts associated with the Q4 AEBITDA guidance and the motivation behind the new NPATA guidance for FY '25, please?

[Oliver Chow, executive]

Yes. Thanks, Ron. I appreciate the question. So as I mentioned earlier, we're kind of working through the mitigation and strategic reviews. We knew there would be some near-term impacts from the Dragon Train injunction perspective.

And the team has just done, as Matt said, an incredible job working with our customers ensure we Ring fence the majority of the impact to 2024. And then we could turn the page to not only execute our 2025 goals, but how do we continue to build the foundation for kind of -- to be a kind of a compounder of growth for years to come.

If I think about the Q4 specific impacts, if you look at gaming, it's really in the North American gaming ops perspective, where we hit some of the associated kind of conversion costs as well as some of the customer collaboration on commercial terms.

From an international point of view, we had some game sales markets, especially in Australia that we're working through as we continue to build that funnel as we head into 2025. I think outside of the gaming segment, I think I'll start with the social casino market, that remains, I would say, the market remains relatively flat.

But I think we have the best team in the industry to continue to drive growth with the best-in-class product that we have, the monetization fly where we put into place as well as kind of the GCC progress that we've made quarter after quarter. I mentioned on the call, this was our 11th consecutive quarter of growth, and really outpacing the social casino segment. So we feel really good, and Josh and the team will continue that progress as we had not only from a fourth quarter perspective, but into next year.

And then finally, from a gaming point of view, we did have that slight headwind kind of second tired talking about this termination fee. We luckily this is the last quarter that we'll talk about these term fees. So we had $1 million termination fee last year as we cycle through that to next year, it will be a cleaner comp.

But if you look at the North American market, that continues to grow at a very sizable pace, and we're just really setting ourselves out for just continued execution in that space. So all these factors really contributed to what I would call a modest kind of EBITDA growth rate here in Q4, and then we'll kind of refocus ourselves and reinvigorate ourselves towards future growth.

[Matthew Wilson, executive]

And then in terms of your second question, I think from an NPATA point of view, I figured you might appreciate that. But we have kind of looked to kind of bolster reporting to include adjusted NPATA here over the last 12 or so months. This is really just simply translation of the 1.4 EBITDA target. So this is a measure that's obviously widely used by our investor base, particularly in Australia. So we'll start to incorporate not only the overall financial reporting of that Pad A, but obviously, will work to kind of the guidance framework as we move forward.

So over the next, I would say, 5 quarters, what we've done is we've made some reasonable kind of assumptions based on the current forecast the team has provided. And that's assumptions around floating interest rates, tax rates, investments in CapEx that obviously would drive variability in D&A assumption.

So I think the range that we provide then gives us a bit more variability, flexibility, just given that this is a forecast. And this is what we'll start to kind of provide this translation as we move on.

[Operator]

The next question go to Ryan Sigdahl of Craig-Happum.

[Ryan Sigdahl, analyst]

[indiscernible] When wanted to circle back to Dragon Train quick. When should we expect the second iteration of that? And how do you feel about the pipeline going into 2025? Yes, I'll start with the pipeline broadly. Like I said, we're a diverse organization with lots of games, lots of franchises, Drive Train was 1 of 130 that we make. Annually, we've made over 1,000 games in the last years.

So that's what we do. And what you're investing in, when you invest in Light & Wonder is a platform, an R&D organization that can continue to build great games after quarter across a diverse set of markets and a diverse set of franchises.

Dragon Train the original, is clearly, again, the players wanted to play and customers wanted to buy, and that's what we're about building. What was contested in Dragon Train was a very narrow part of the game. So we're actively working on building number of different variations of Dragon Train for the portfolio. We won't tip our hand exactly to when we're going to launch those gains. Here publicly, we know many of our competitors dial into these calls. So we'll keep our cards close to our chest on that.

But it is a franchise that will be in the market that competitors will have to compete with going forward. We see this as being the type of franchise like Dancing Drums like Huff N' Puffs, like Quick Hits, that will be a sustainable contributor to our organization over the long term.

So yes, you'll see it back in the portfolio in short order here. and we're excited about that. But I just want to underscore the fact that we're more than just Dragon Train. We are an organization that's decades old with lots of firepower when it comes to franchises, and the strong lineup of games as we roll into '2025, and we chased down that $1.4 billion guide that we've given the marketplace so many times over the last 3 years. So thanks for your question.

[Operator]

Thank you. The next question, go to Justin Barrett of CLSA.

[Unknown Analyst]

I just wanted to ask about margins. And specific to your FY '25 target, how important is margin expansion to that target? And then, look, I just feel like I need to ask a question just around Dragon Train and the progress on the litigation in Australia. Is there at all any risk that you will need to, I guess, remove the drag on trains that have already sold in Australia from the floors as a result of that litigation progress.

[Matthew Wilson, executive]

Justin, thanks for the question. Yes, I think from a margin perspective, if you look at the nature of our businesses across all 3 segments, it really does lend itself to having really robust margin performance quarter in quarter. I don't think we've proven that and shown that over the last several quarters. And this is for us an absolutely key element for us in terms of Creating value -- and really, if we look at the stability of those margins, I think we can keep those current levels and really scale that over the next several years.

We expect gaming perspective, as we head into next year, we expect gaming to trend in line. And that's obviously barring any significant product mix shifts, but we're going to continue to optimize the business for efficiencies while we continue to invest for the future growth of this business. And we've done that over the last several quarters, and we're going to continue to do that as we move forward.

So over the long term, especially as we start to scale our gaming operations installed base on and we expect that margin to expand. I think from a side play point of view, we mentioned or talked about kind of UA spend and a guide in the second half.

We've partially realized that in the quarter, and we expect us to continue to kind of lean into UA where it makes sense to, and we see high returns. But I wouldn't necessarily expect any major shifts in kind of margin going forward..As we head into next year and DTC continues to scale, there's no doubt that's going to be a margin tailwind for us for many years to come.

And then I think lastly, from an iGaming point of view, I would expect that to kind of stay relatively consistent here as we invest and continue to invest in kind of the growth of this business And this business will scale over the next several years. And I did mention kind of this impact of determination fees once we kind of cycle over that for next year, I think it will be a much compare for us.

So I think all of that coupled with margin enhancement really gives us an ability to drive really significant margin growth here over the next several years. Yes. I'll address the litigation question. As a policy, we don't talk publicly about litigation. But what I will say specifically about your question to address it is, those games are under the ownership of our customers. This injunction is against Light in London, not against any customer globally. We don't see a scenario where those games that are owned by our customers are impacted, but that's what we'll say publicly about that.

[Operator]

The next question goes to be Rohan Sundram of MST. -- an -- just 1 for me, and it's around the medium-term growth outlook, Matt, you might have touched on it earlier, but I appreciate you've reiterated the $1.4 billion EBITDA guidance again. But after that, once you've achieved that, how would you describe the growth runway ahead across your businesses beyond that?

[Matthew Wilson, executive]

Yes, it's a key question, one we get asked quite often, what's the future beyond 2025, there's no visible finish line at 2025, we hear for a transformation journey that extends well beyond 2025. Obviously, annually, we build a strategic plan that takes our business out another 3 to 5 years. And so we have visibility to growth engine in perpetuity. I would say I'm excited about the future of Light & Bonder beyond 2025. We think there's a significant amount of growth drivers in play. We think there's more share to be had in all of our global markets. There are some adjacencies that we're just getting into in its infancy at the moment. So we see a continuation of that.

Importantly, we'll likely come back to the investor base sometime next year, and kind of reframe how to think about what an beyond 2025. It will be a growth story. There's no doubt about that, and we're excited to come back and share more details about the specifics of this business beyond 2025. And at the moment, it's all eyes are focused on delivering on that guide and then setting this business up to success beyond that, but more to count.

[Operator]

And the final question goes to Paul Mason of Evans and Partners.

[David Katz, analyst]

I just wanted to ask about sort of medium-term international outright sales opportunities. There's regulatory stuff that's happening in Macau, and I think in the Philippines. And I believe there's like a big expansion opportunity in the UAE coming up in a couple of years. But could you give us a bit of a color on sort of like the magnitude and timing of those sort of things? And any other big events internationally that might be sort of helpful catalysts?

[Matthew Wilson, executive]

Yes. The [indiscernible] The Philippines, we've spoken about pretty extensively. That's a near-term opportunity that's been active last year. Its active again into in '24, '25. There's some big, ambitious plans for that market in terms of GGR and then competing kind of on a global scale as a casino operation. So and we're a big participant in that. We're the #1 player in the Philippines.

The Macau regulatory churn is going to happen over a number of years. So that will be a good opportunity for us, again it's. It's pretty much a to outrate that market these days in there actually for 5 years. So I know that market well. I'm very fond of it.

It's really restrain us that are going to participate in that regulatory churn. And then beyond that, there's some really exciting, kind of new geographies expanding. So the is a very interesting one, one in us 2020. One. Obviously, wins license there now.

We're in the process of getting regulatory compliance -- these new markets are quite interesting. They are like a bit of a RubiCube. Trying to figure out which market the players are going to be pulled from? Is it going to be a European player, an Asian player. And I think that really lends itself to global operators like Light & Wonder who can bring to bear an amazing set of content from -- we've got games from the U.K., from the European market, from Asia, from Australia, from all over the U.S. So we can bring to bed our portfolio to help operators like when and the others that are ultimately licensed in that market be successful.

So we're excited about trying to figure out that Roque and helping them along the way to be successful, but we see that as a kind of a multisite expansion opportunity probably over the kind of '27, '28 time frame is when we see that really coming to life. You've also got Thailand the process of dealing with their expansion opportunities. You've got Japan on the horizon. So a really unique set of opportunities coming online in the international market.

I think, we're very well positioned as a team. We've got some great leadership in that market in the international markets to help propel our store and get us set up to success. So all of that to come back to, I'd say, Macau and the Philippines more of a near-term opportunity. And then if you think about Thailand, Japan, UAE, probably more like '27 beyond. So yes, I think some meaningful catalysts on the horizon for the gaming business.

[Operator]

We have no further questions. I'll hand back to Matt for any closing comments.

[Matthew Wilson, executive]

Thank you, operator. Before we wrap up, I'd like to take a moment to reflect on the incredible feedback we received at G2E this year regarding our new products and initiatives. It was truly affirming to see the positive recession both from those customers and industry leaders further reinforcing our belief that we are on the right path towards innovation and growth. We remain on track to achieve our 2025 consolidated EBITDA target despite some challenges along the way.

Our ability to stay focused, execute and adapt is a testament to the strength and resiliency of the Light & Wonder team. Thank you again for your continued support. On behalf of the entire Light & Wonder team, we're excited about the journey ahead and the milestones yet to come as we continue creating value for all of our stakeholders. Have a great day.

[Operator]

Thank you. This now concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.