Infinera Corp

NASDAQ:INFN

Earnings Call Analysis

Infinera Q3 Performance Beats Expectations

Infinera reported preliminary Q3 earnings with revenues expected between $378 to $392 million, beating the outlook's midpoint, aided by a strong performance in the Americas and EMEA. A significant 40% to 42% gross margin is anticipated, improving year-over-year due to higher vertical integration and cost efficiencies. Operating margins also exceeded expectations, ranging from 4.6% to 8%. Despite two material weaknesses identified in internal controls, adjustments will only shift the recognition timing of revenue, not the amount. The company maintains a 25% targeted EPS growth for 2023, reflecting their sustained focus on profitability. For Q4, Infinera forecasts continued revenue growth with expected revenues of $421 to $451 million and EPS between $0.05 to $0.13.

Adapting Revenue Recognition and Strengthening Financial Reporting

During the third quarter, the company faced scrutiny from external auditors, spurring a reexamination of their revenue recognition practices and internal control processes. This audit led to the identification of material weaknesses in financial reporting that they aim to correct promptly. However, importantly for investors, this revision is not expected to result in lost revenue but will instead adjust the timing of when revenue is recognized, ensuring the company's financial health remains stable.

Healthy Revenue and Margins Signal Strong Performance

Despite facing challenges with reporting practices, the company's preliminary revenue is expected to exceed expectations, ranging between $378 million to $392 million, suggesting a robust business performance, particularly in the Americas and EMEA regions. Gross margins also showed improvement, hitting approximately 40% to 42%, with a supportive trend towards their target margin of 40% for the year. This is largely attributed to higher vertical integration and operational efficiencies which bodes well for both the current and future financial outlook of the company.

Operating Efficiency Drives Profitability

The company's operating margins for the quarter ranged from 4.6% to 8%, surpassing their anticipated outlook, driven by higher revenue and gross margins. The operating expenses were managed below their expected range, amounting to $134 million, indicating disciplined cost control while still investing in growth areas. This strategic management of operations resulted in a positive preliminary diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.03 to $0.08.

Favorable Fourth Quarter and Year-End Projections

Looking ahead, the company predicts continued revenue growth in the fourth quarter, despite a tough macro and industry climate with forecasted revenues of $421 million to $451 million. They expect to sustain gross margins between 38% to 41% and aim for an operating margin of 5.5% to 9.5%. Operating expenses are projected to be within the range of $138 million to $142 million, reflecting cautious but constructive spending. Lastly, they anticipate an EPS of $0.05 to $0.13 per share, presenting a potential uptick in profitability as the fiscal year closes.

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q3

[Operator]

Hello. My name is Chris, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the Infinera Corp. Q3 2023 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Amitabh Passi, Head of Investor Relations, you may begin.

[Amitabh Passi, executive]

Thank you, Chris, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Infinera's third quarter fiscal 2023 conference call. A copy of the press release issued by Infinera today is available on the Investor Relations section of the website. Additionally, this call is being recorded and will be available for replay from our website.Today's call will include projections and estimates that constitute forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, statements related to the accounting and financial matters referenced in the press release, current Form 10 -- 8-K and notification of late filing that we'll file today. Our business plans, product development and growth opportunities, including progress against strategic priorities, including with respect to vertical integration and its anticipated benefits, trends, competition and customers.Furthermore, expectations regarding the macroeconomic environment, expectations regarding our inventory levels and industry-wide CapEx dynamics, expectations regarding our subsystems group and its impact on our financial results, expectations regarding potential governmental funding, projected year-over-year drivers of our key financial performance metrics, expectations regarding our future performance, revenue growth, margin expansion, generation of cash flow from operations and EPS expansion and a preliminary financial outlook for the fourth quarter of 2023.These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause Infinera's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. Actual results may differ materially as a result of various risk factors, including those set forth in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended on December 31, 2022, as filed with the SEC on February 27, 2023, and in our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended July 1, 2023, as filed with the SEC on August 9, 2023, as well as subsequent reports filed with or furnished to the SEC from time to time. Please be reminded that all statements are made as of today, and Infinera undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances that may arise after the date of this call.Today's conference call includes references to non-GAAP financial measures. Pursuant to Regulation G, we've provided a recon of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures in our earnings press release for this quarter, which is available on the Investor Relations section of our website.And finally, as a reminder, we'll allow for plenty of time for Q&A today, so we ask that you limit yourselves to one question and one follow-up, please.I'll now turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, David Heard.

[David Heard, executive]

Thanks, Amitabh. Good afternoon, and thanks for joining us today. I'll begin with the highlights from our preliminary third quarter results and then turn the call over to Nancy to cover the preliminary financial details of our third quarter performance and the outlook for the fourth quarter and the items referenced in the press release and Form 8-K we filed earlier this afternoon.Before I jump into the details of the quarter, I want to pause, take a step back and focus on our quarterly accomplishments at a high level. Overall, the third quarter was another solid quarter for us in which all preliminary financial metrics, revenue growth, margin, operating margin and EPS are expected to exceed the midpoint of our outlook range.We delivered strong bookings with a book-to-bill ratio above 1. We continue to land new Tier 1 design wins for our Systems business. We won additional orders for our Subsystems business and are shipping our first vertically integrated metro systems this quarter, all while we expanded profitability on a year-over-year basis.Furthermore, as we look ahead to Q4, we're forecasting growth to be generally in line with the consensus view. While capital markets and macroeconomic conditions have been challenging, we've been keeping our heads down and remaining focused on executing our plan. For the full year of 2023, we currently project that we're still on track to grow revenue and deliver our sixth consecutive year of revenue growth, expand operating profit and EBITDA and drive greater than a 25% improvement in earnings per share, which would represent our fourth consecutive year of significant EPS expansion. These accomplishments directly reflect the strong execution against the strategy we laid out in our past 2 Analyst Days and add to our track record of doing what we say we're going to do.Getting into some of the specifics of the quarter. Q3 marked the 14th quarter out of the last 15, which we believe we have met or exceeded our outlook range. Bookings in the quarter were up sequentially and on a year-over-year basis with most of the sequential growth driven by customers in EMEA and the Americas. On a year-to-date basis through Q3 and compared to the same period last year, we expect to report growth in revenue, expanded gross margin, increased operating margin and improved EBITDA.Traction across our portfolio remained strong in the quarter, and I'd like to touch on some of the highlights, starting with our Systems group. First, we won new strategic deals globally, including wins with 2 Tier 1 service providers in Europe, several subsea consortium and an award to modernize and expand a nationwide network for a Tier 1 operator in Asia Pacific. The wins in Europe and subsea are especially noteworthy as these are new customer logos where we have no incumbency.Second, we continued our momentum with U.S. hyperscalers with year-over-year growth in both revenue and bookings. The strength in this customer segment was broad-based spanning multiple customers' applications and Infinera products.And finally, we booked our first set of orders and recognized revenue from the metro win we referenced during last quarter's earnings call. As a reminder, this is a turnkey award with a major U.S. service provider, which includes our GX Metro platform, along with our software suite and support services.In our Subsystems group, a few noticeable accomplishments were: first, both the CFP2 and QSFP-DD versions of our 400-gig ICE-X pluggables are now commercially available. These 2 form factors give us flexibility of integrating our pluggables in our own metro platforms as well as in third-party hosts like routers and switches. In Q3, we received our first set of vertically integrated orders for our ICE-X pluggables and are in the process of shipping our first metro systems with our own pluggables this quarter. This is a significant milestone and accomplishment for us and is consistent with the expectations we laid out in our Investor Day. We expect margin benefits from our own vertically integrated metro platform to begin in 2024.Second, we remain on track to deliver the highest performing and lowest power 800-gig pluggable that will leverage 3-nanometer technology and enable our customers to reach greater distances and unmatched performance and economics, which also has landed us our first set of 800-gig component orders.And lastly, we're excited to see 4 new members of the Open XR Forum in the quarter. We've built a solid pipeline for both pluggables and components and received additional purchase orders spanning the entire portfolio. As our Subsystems business expands, we expect to benefit from higher margins from both the vertical integration of our metro portfolio, as I described earlier, and from the incremental operating leverage as we ramp the sales of external pluggables.In addition, we are continuing to pursue government funding available at both the state and Federal levels via programs like the CHIPS Act to continue to supply the U.S.-made optical semiconductors to secure critical supply chains. These issues are of increasing importance to our customers and as a company with U.S.-based optical semiconductor fabrication and advanced test and packaging, we believe we are well positioned for this opportunity.In closing, my confidence in our strategy, portfolio and execution remains high as evidenced by our market share gains and financial progress over the past few years. In the short term, our customers are still going through a period of inventory digestion and remain cautious about spending in a recessionary environment. Our job in this environment is to focus on the highest priority spend areas which are broad fiber deployment, data center build-outs and new applications inside the data center, while taking more than our fair share of orders and managing spending tightly.In the long term, demand for bandwidth continues to grow as hyperscalers accelerate the rollout of artificial intelligence and machine learning workloads and service providers drive fiber deeper into networks pushing 100-gig to the edge, 400-gig in the metro and 800-gig in the core. It's apparent that the growth inside the data center over the next few years is creating new opportunities for our business. Clearly, coherent optical technologies and vertical integration are becoming more important than ever.Our guiding principles for the company remain unchanged and centered on continuing to expand market share in our Systems business across long-haul, subsea and metro, vertically integrating our metro portfolio with our own pluggables, which will expand margins, ramping up external sales of our pluggables, driving leverage in our business model and meaningfully expanding earnings per share.I'd like to thank the Infinera team and their dedication and unwavering commitment to our customers and one another and for continuing to deliver on innovation that matters. I'd also like to extend my thanks to our partners, customers and shareholders for their ongoing support. Finally, my thoughts [ then ] first [ go out ] to the people of the Ukraine and Middle East who are suffering through these very unthinkable times.I'd now like to hand the call over to Nancy to cover the preliminary financial details of the quarter and our outlook. Nancy?

[Nancy Erba, executive]

Thanks, David. Good afternoon, everyone. I will begin by covering our preliminary third quarter results and then provide a preliminary outlook for the fourth quarter. For your reference, we have included a GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation of our preliminary financials in our press release. As a reminder, any financial commentary or metrics provided today are based on our preliminary non-GAAP results. Before I review our third quarter results, I'd like to provide some context on why we are providing ranges today and why the filing of our 10-Q is delayed as noted in the 2 SEC filings we made this afternoon.During Q3, our external auditors informed us of a routine PCAOB inspection of their work papers that randomly included their audit of Infinera's 2022 financial statement. Late in the third quarter, our auditors asked about our method of revenue allocation between products and services and our documentation related to our quota close to cash and inventory cycle.As a result, in connection with the quarter end close process, we reexamined the revenue recognition methodology we have been using historically as well as our internal control documentation processes. Subsequently, we have identified 2 material weaknesses in our internal control over financial reporting and have concluded that they were present as of December 31, 2022, and through the first 3 quarters of 2023.Based on our initial evaluation, we expect any adjustments to revenue will be shifts in allocation between revenue that is deferred and revenue that is recognized upon delivery and expect that there will be no lost revenue, only shifts in revenue between accounting periods.In addition to providing preliminary ranges for Q3 on our call today, we will also be providing our preliminary outlook for the fourth quarter. The information we are providing reflects our expectations regarding the allocation of revenue under our updated methodology. The scope of this review is limited to the matters I described. Based on the progress we have made in addressing them in a compressed period of time, we would hope to file the 10-Q reasonably promptly.Turning to the performance in the quarter. I am pleased with the continued momentum in our business. Preliminary revenue of $378 million to $392 million is expected to come in above the midpoint of our outlook range. This performance was primarily driven by strength in the Americas and EMEA with both ICP and service provider customers. Geographically, we derived approximately 60% of our Q3 revenue from domestic customers, a level generally consistent throughout the year. There was one ICP customer that accounted for over 10% of our revenue in the quarter.Q3 preliminary gross margin of approximately 40% to 42% is expected to be above the midpoint of our outlook range and up on a year-over-year basis. Compared to the prior year, gross margin in the quarter benefited from higher vertical integration, continued relief in supply costs, product mix and ongoing cost improvements and quality initiatives.Overall, I'm encouraged by the gross margin trend in 2023 with gross margin progressing toward our goal of 40% for the year. This margin expansion supports my confidence in our ability to deliver continued improvement in 2024 and beyond as we vertically integrate our metro portfolio and ramp up our external pluggables revenue.Preliminary operating margin in the quarter was 4.6% to 8% and above our outlook range. On a year-to-date basis, we expect to deliver higher operating margin compared to the same period last year, benefiting primarily from higher revenue and gross margins. Operating expenses in the quarter of $134 million were below our outlook range of $139 million to $143 million as we tightly manage quarterly spending while continuing to make substantial investments in our subsystems business. The resulting preliminary diluted EPS is expected to be $0.03 to $0.08, also above our outlook range.Moving on to the balance sheet and cash flow items. We ended the quarter with $127 million in cash and cash equivalents with no amount drawn on the ABL. From a cash flow perspective, the primary use of cash in the quarter was inventory as we prepare for client deliveries in Q4 and Q1 of '24, while reducing our overall purchase commitments. We believe Q3 marked a peak for our inventory in this cycle, and we plan to generate cash from operations in Q4.Let me now turn to the outlook for the fourth quarter of 2023. Despite the near-term challenging macro and industry environment, we are planning for sequential revenue growth in Q4, in line with consensus expectations. Our preliminary outlook range for the fourth quarter is revenue of $421 million to $451 million, gross margin of 38% to 41%, operating expenses of $138 million to $142 million and operating margin of 5.5% to 9.5%.Below the operating income line, we assume approximately $7 million for net interest expense and approximately $3 million for taxes. Finally, we are anticipating EPS of $0.05 to $0.13 per share, assuming a basic share count of approximately 230 million shares and a fully diluted share count, if profitable, of approximately 260 million shares.Furthermore, at approximately the midpoint of our outlook range for Q4, the implied expectations for the full year are generally consistent to slightly better than our commentary on last quarter's earnings call. Specifically, for the full year and compared to 2022, we expect to deliver revenue growth, expand gross margin, operating margin and EBITDA and expand non-GAAP EPS by at least 25%.As I close today, I would like to reiterate that I am pleased with our performance year-to-date, especially considering the industry-wide slowdown that we have been experiencing for the past few quarters. Our strategic initiatives are on track, and we should be on pace to deliver our sixth consecutive year of revenue growth and expand gross margin towards 40% for the year and drive a greater than 1,000 basis points of operating margin expansion since 2019.Furthermore, we have proactively strengthened our balance sheet by refinancing the majority of our 2024 notes ahead of the continued increase in interest rates. We currently have approximately $19 million of the 2024 convertible notes due upon [ maturity ] in September of 2024. We remain laser-focused on continuing to drive meaningful EPS expansion and generating free cash flow in the quarters and years ahead.I would like to thank the Infinera team as well for their continued commitment to innovation and execution and our partners, customers and shareholders for your continued cooperation and support.I'd now like to open up the line for questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Ruben Roy with Stifel.

[Ruben Roy, analyst]

Nancy, [ Just ] reading the press release and the comments from the auditors, is there a change in your pricing methodology that's acquired here? And also with your comments regarding Q4 and the guidance, would the guidance have been different without the kind of change in accounting?

[Nancy Erba, executive]

First, there's no change in our pricing approach. Our pricing approach has been consistent as for many years now in terms of how we sell our product, sell our technology and work with our customer base. As far as Q4, I mean, the range is -- where we see the range today, it does include the new methodology that we mentioned. But if you look at our preliminary range for Q3, you can see the magnitude of impact from that adjustment is, I would say, limited. So we feel good about the Q4 outlook range today.

[Ruben Roy, analyst]

And as a follow-up, David. Great to hear about the Subsystems progress. As that progress comes, there's, of course, sort of [indiscernible] and this concept of [ metro ] [indiscernible] kind of the [ lesion ] from possible [indiscernible] et cetera. Just wondering if you have an updated thought on how you see that? Clearly, there are reach limitations and the potential that it's not a simple one-to-one replacement, but would just love to hear updated thoughts as you get closer to shipment?

[David Heard, executive]

Sure. Not every service provider -- and it certainly doesn't follow the same strategy and you need to do web scalers. So our strategy has always been to build the world's best transponders whether they're in an embedded solution to service long-haul subsea or metro high-capacity inside an optical system or whether that's transponders miniaturized inside a pluggable that is able to provide metro reach, and quite frankly, over time, some of the same functionality as in an embedded. So we're on both sides of the equation. They all come back to our core competence of building vertically integrated transponders with our own optical semiconductors.

[Operator]

The next question is from Alexander Henderson with Needham.

[Alex Henderson, analyst]

So just to be clear, there is no impact on the margin structure at all. No changes in the gross margin as a result of the accounting change. I'm looking at the guide for the gross margins for the third quarter to fourth quarter, it looks we like there's not much real improvement in that margin sequentially. And I would think that would be the case given the ramp of chip production.

[Nancy Erba, executive]

Yes. So a couple of things. If there is an adjustment to revenue, it would be at 100% margin, right? So it would flow straight through to the bottom line. But you're right, there's no change to our overall margin structure. Our target business model remains unchanged, and we're really pleased with the progress we've made in Q3, getting to a [ 4% ] and the handle of gross margin is something we have been driving to for quite some time. So we're very happy to see that. In terms of Q4, yes, there's a certain mix of customers and products. But you're right, there's also the ramp of the new technology. So it's a combination there.

[Alex Henderson, analyst]

Can you give us any thoughts on whether you're going to be stepping up hiring or reducing hiring as we go into 2024? I realize you haven't done your budget yet, but any commentary along -- granularity around that would be very useful.

[David Heard, executive]

Yes. I think from an expense and investment perspective, Alex, you've seen over the last couple of quarters, we've really been holding tightly in expense through this kind of climate. It's a little early to be talking about '24. But certainly, we think '24 will have a bit of a lighter front half, heavier back half. We still believe we will grow and the market will grow, and we will grow faster than the market. I don't think we're going to go crazy in terms of adding lots of resources. We're going to continue to try to drive efficiency to really ensure we're getting operating leverage.So we'll give you a bit more profound detail around 2024 in terms of both what our top line expectations and the expectations for margin and bottom line. Good news on the margin front is we're really seeing the impact that these things can happen as the pluggables continue to ramp up. They will continue to help that margin profile. In the early days, as you just suggested, you're at pre-entitlement periods and for the first quarter or 2, those are not getting at the same volume potential that they will as yet.

[Operator]

The next question is from Simon Leopold with Raymond James.

[Simon Leopold, analyst]

It looks to me like your ICP business year-to-date is up something on the order of 30% plus and so I get sort of lumpiness quarter-to-quarter. I'm trying to get a better sense of how to think about that particular vertical over the next several quarters next year, however you want to frame it, given I see sort of 2 opposing forces? One is the tough comparison, but 2 is what sounds like stable trends in terms of that group of operators and their spending. Can you help me with that?

[David Heard, executive]

Yes. I think I can. But again, I'm not going to lay out complete '24. Look, I think that for the first time in our history, we are engaged with all the major hyperscalers in some way, shape or form. It's up on multiple technology fronts, some unpluggable as well as embedded technologies and software and line systems. So I would expect that when I look at their CapEx, not just from what they're publicly announcing but what we're planning with them for that segment to continue to be robust. Although again, lumpy in how they roll out the quarters, but for full year to be robust in '24 and '25.

[Simon Leopold, analyst]

And I just want to get a little bit maybe clarification on the accounting weakness that was identified. I just want to get an understanding of what might have changed? Was there something that changed in the accounting team, something that changed that triggered the review? It's sort of the why now?

[Nancy Erba, executive]

So yes, I mean, first of all, no, nothing has changed in terms of the team, and we've been, as you've seen, continuing to improve our processes over time. This was an inspection of our auditor by the PCAOB that was randomly impacting Infinera. Meaning they had an inspection, Infinera's kind of name was drawn, so to speak. The methodology that we use, they had questions about -- in terms of our approach to how we allocate between hardware, software and services. We reviewed some of their questions, some of their suggestions, and we agreed that we needed to make a change to that methodology. But that simply changes quarters in which revenue is recognized. It does not change in total the revenue amount that we will recognize over the life of a contract.And as you can see from the range we showed in Q3, it's limited in scope. I mean, in terms of the absolute magnitude you can think of it as 0.25 percentage up to maybe a few percent in any particular period. But we don't expect it to be something that slows us down. We're continuing to execute and operate. We are working through the remaining work that we have to get done with our auditors. And we will drive to file our 10-Q as quickly as possible.

[David Heard, executive]

Yes. That's why we are comfortable with the ranges we put out and putting out our Q4 guidance. But obviously, given this is brought late in the process, Nancy's team has to work through this with the auditors to file the 10-Q. So that's where we're at.

[Operator]

The next question is from Mike Genovese with Rosenblatt Securities.

[Michael Genovese, analyst]

I mean, really nice results and nice outlook and particularly with the book-to-bill being above 1 in the third quarter. I guess my question is, I mean, particularly, as you mentioned, with competitors or others in the industry seeing weaker trends and you guys coming through here, I'm just wondering -- and the one time [ person ] -- customer being a web scaler. Are the orders more than normal weighted towards web scale? Or are you also seeing the sort of strength and share gain with traditional telco customers as well?

[David Heard, executive]

Yes. Thanks for asking the question. So yes, well, certainly, we're doing very well that -- we've covered with the web scalers. I will tell you, we won a couple of new Tier 1 levels in Europe that we have never had before. And so those are nice wins for us. As well as in the metro, you see we continue to make big progress in gaining share. When I look at our G40, G30 platform, our GX platform, and I look at the year-over-year comparables to what we're doing there in terms of product bookings as well as product billings, they are [ up ] profoundly.So we are making inroads with service providers in different geos. We talked about India in our last call, in Europe, as well as you saw nice strength in both Europe and Americas this last quarter. So again, the strategy we laid out at our Analyst Day, that 8X4X1 is winning in the core, winning in the metro and then driving to the edges what we got our heads down, and we're executing to.

[Michael Genovese, analyst]

And then on this restatement project. I mean it sounds like you're saying the Q will be filed relatively on time, which to me suggests this month. Is that reasonable?

[Nancy Erba, executive]

Yes. First, this is not -- we are not indicating a restatement. So we are still doing our work. We are highlighting the range -- preliminary range for Q3 and Q4. We do have work still to complete, which is why we filed the extension on our Q. Our objective is to get it done as soon as practical. So you can probably think of that in weeks versus anything longer than that.

[Michael Genovese, analyst]

And then finally, I'm really happy to hear about the refinancing of the convertibles, there's only $19 million due in September of '24. I think that's great news. But since we don't have the Q, I'm just curious, is everything now beyond that are the maturities in '27 and '28 and beyond? Or do we have things coming due in '25 and '26?

[Nancy Erba, executive]

No. So there's $19 million due in September '24, and we did file at the time of that refinancing. You can see the details there and Amitabh can send them to you if you need. And then the next set of maturities, you're right, are in '27 and '28.

[David Heard, executive]

What was the effect of interest rate [ for ] [ this ]?

[Nancy Erba, executive]

Our average right now is 3.3%.

[Operator]

The next question is from Dave Kang with B. Riley.

[Dave Kang, analyst]

Regarding on bookings, I think last quarter you said that you expect bookings to increase throughout the second half. So should we expect bookings to be up once again in fourth quarter sequentially?

[David Heard, executive]

That's the only area we don't actually report. We don't forecast bookings. But I think what we said is that we thought that bookings would continue to accelerate in the back half. There is some lumpiness in bookings. But overall, we see a trend, both in Q3 and Q4 versus the first half that is at this point.

[Dave Kang, analyst]

And then also last quarter, you said Tier 1s were still in inventory correction mode while smaller service providers, they seem to be doing better. Have they changed since 90 days ago?

[David Heard, executive]

Yes. I think you've heard in the industry, everybody is very tight with the capital dollar, with interest rates and the economy and externalities, geopolitical forces at play. But that's what you heard in my prepared remarks said, our goal is to win more than our fair share and to ensure that the priority of the orders which the service providers is rolling out, fiber deeper into the edge of the network to get these applications built. And the web scalers that we're dealing with are building out AI infrastructure, and that is fueling demand. So we're focused on every order dollar that's up and available and our job is to take more than our fair share.

[Operator]

The next question is from Meta Marshall with Morgan Stanley.

[Karan Juvekar, analyst]

Hi, this is Karan on for Meta. So you sort of mentioned inventory being a source of cash next quarter. I guess just generally, what gives you confidence in that and maybe just how much of a source of cash can it be for next quarter and maybe across the year next year?

[Nancy Erba, executive]

Yes, we have been using working capital over the last several quarters through the period of time of the inventory [ adjustment ]. We think inventory has peaked in Q3. I will say, though, we've been sharing with you that our total commitments -- if you look at both the inventory on our books as well as the commitments to our RCM is actually down Q2 to Q3. And then we expect to reduce inventory and the inventory commitments total again in Q4. So that cash flow will start in Q4 and flow into Q1. I can't give you a real magnitude at this point, but more to just say that the trend is now turning in the right direction there.

[David Heard, executive]

Yes. So I think in the quarter, our inventories were up close to $40 million-ish in Q3, and our overall obligations -- purchase obligations plus inventory were down [ $20 million ]. So despite the inventory being up, total net liability down [ $20 million ], and we expect that to peak. And then again, given the nice book-to-bill and what our outlook is for Q4 and projects from backlog for Q1, we expect that to go down.

[Karan Juvekar, analyst]

And then just a quick follow-up on the service provider side. You mentioned [ service ] teams continued strength there. I guess just generally in terms of customer conversations, are you getting any pushback on the pricing front during some of this pause?

[David Heard, executive]

We always get pushback on the pricing front. But our job is to make vertically integrated products that provide price performance, not just by reducing the price tag, but actually the effect of dollar per bit and [ watts ] per bit. So -- and I do want to correct, when I say service provider strength, do not write that up. There are pockets of strength based on priority of spend. Overall, there is still a muted environment of conservatism around CapEx dollars. And I expect that our team is in planning mode and out with our customer base now, and we're in the process of locking down our plans for 2024 accordingly.

[Operator]

The next question is from George Notter with Jefferies.

[George Notter, analyst]

I am curious about the mix of ICE-X as a percentage of product sales and then also the mix of vertically integrated sales as a percentage of product sales. Do you guys have those numbers?

[David Heard, executive]

We do. ICE-X was just under 30%. The vertical integration was at 57-ish percent.

[George Notter, analyst]

And then as I think about driving those numbers forward, obviously, the XTM and GX redesigns are kind of the key elements there. Can you tell me where you guys are on that? I think you said one of those products is going to be available by year-end for revenue. Obviously, your customers also have to test those products. How long do you think those testing processes will take? What do you think it looks like in terms of really turning those numbers upward in terms of vertical integration of products?

[David Heard, executive]

Yes, the bookings of the GX series are up significantly, and we should probably put that out in our next earnings cycle to show the percentages of that and what's the embedded base of GX is growing on [ account ]. So we'll do that, George. But those products are ready, the software, the OS, everything we've done over the last years to make them productive from metro, long-haul and aggregation. So that's great. What we talked about, George, was we were shipping the first one to a customer that not only had the GX, but have the -- our own pluggables in them. And so that will actually go out. That's going out right now this quarter and thus will be the revenue in this quarter or in Q1, thus the start of the vertical integration.So now all of our GX platforms that are out there, where we might have used merchant CFP2, our pluggable in it, are able to incorporate our pluggable and we're going through various stages of integration testing with those clients. Obviously, if we can provide a better price performance they're eager to have us implement. So we'll try to make sure, George, going forward in 2024. I think that's a good metric for us to start looking at.

[George Notter, analyst]

And then...

[David Heard, executive]

[indiscernible] vertical integration and -- yes.

[George Notter, analyst]

Sorry, go ahead.

[David Heard, executive]

No. Go ahead, you're good.

[George Notter, analyst]

So I was just going to ask that the mix of vertically integrated product -- Obviously, we're looking for that to step up as the year goes on next year. Like what do you think is doable in terms of that next year?

[David Heard, executive]

Again, I don't want to get too far ahead of the state into 2024. But I think what we said was that we thought over [ 60 ] and over time that, that could approach [ 70 ], so.

[Operator]

The next question is from Christian Schwab with Craig-Hallum Capital.

[Christian Schwab, analyst]

Just 2 quick ones. We don't want to talk about '24, but I missed some of the prepared comments. Did we reiterate our outlook for $1 share earnings in '25 and '26?

[David Heard, executive]

Yes, we did not, but we have not pulled off that. And I think when you see the -- I think what we said in our last earnings call is that we continue to expand EPS this year in 2023 by 25%, and a big goal of ours next year isn't just the growth in the top line, but we're super focused on growing our bottom line dollars and that EPS percentage. So [ with ] that we are not [indiscernible] off that at all.

[Christian Schwab, analyst]

And then as far as -- last quarter you guys talked about a lot of different growth opportunities in India. Can you give us an update on how those growth opportunities are going and what your future expectations are geographically for India?

[David Heard, executive]

Sure. I'll start with overall just growth expectations. So we talked in the prepared remarks about landing a couple of Tier 1s in Europe. We continue to extend with the hyperscalers. And overall, we had a book-to-bill above 1, which was nice to see again after Q1 and Q2 being below 1. So I think overall, we feel very good. It's probably the best we felt across our customer segment, about our engagement. Now that being said, we're in a tough economic climate for them. So what's important to do in these times is engage, understand their needs and put things forward to help them drive the priority of their CapEx spend at the lowest dollar per bit, lowest watt per bit and the best ease of use because they're going to be -- as you've seen, they try to limit their operational personnel that -- a lot of them have become thinner in the field. And we can help that. That's where we want to be.

[Operator]

The next question is from Alex Henderson with Needham.

[Alex Henderson, analyst]

A lot of companies that went through the supply chain issues saw a fairly large increase in backlog, which then allowed them to produce very strong shipments as a result of the supply chain, allowing them to ship more product out against that backlog. A number of them have talked about significant comparison challenges because of it. As one example, if you look at F5, they had a 45% growth in the second quarter and ADC is a business that's flat to declining. So they obviously have a tough comp. Can you talk whether you have a comparison issue in any of the upcoming next 4 or 5 quarters as a result of that and whether that is playing a role to the improved shipments? And on your book-to-bill, it's nice to hear above 1 in the third quarter. Were you above 1 for the year?

[David Heard, executive]

No, we have not done above 1 for the year. But back to your -- I think your key premise -- I think if you look at our operating results over the last 3 years, you don't see wild swings in terms of us growing 25% 1 year as flat another. You see kind of high single-digit to double-digit growth in top line. And this year has been a bit more muted given the economic climate. But so far for the first 3 quarters, we were looking good. We didn't have that big spike. So as the share taker in our position, as long as the market continues to grow, we will grow, our program just to grow ahead of that market and to continue to really expand EPS background.So simple answer, Alex, no, we don't have as tough as the compare, I think, given we've kind of been steady [indiscernible].

[Operator]

There are no further questions at this time. I'll turn it back to the presenters for any closing remarks.

[David Heard, executive]

Yes. No, I appreciate the thoughtful questions. And again, in this environment, overall, we delivered another strong quarter with projected sequential revenue growth, strong bookings and higher margins, hitting that 40%. We've got the right strategy and are executing our plan. Our portfolio is in the best shape it's ever been, and we're winning customers globally across the segments. We do appreciate the support of our customers, employees and shareholders. And now we're going to get back to work, continuing to execute a very sound investment strategy and focus on continued EPS expansion.Thanks again for the call. Be safe and take care.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.