Independent Bank Group Inc
NASDAQ:IBTX
If you don’t study any companies, you have the same success buying stocks as you do in a poker game if you bet without looking at your cards.
Utilize notes to systematically review your investment decisions. By reflecting on past outcomes, you can discern effective strategies and identify those that underperformed. This continuous feedback loop enables you to adapt and refine your approach, optimizing for future success.
Each note serves as a learning point, offering insights into your decision-making processes. Over time, you'll accumulate a personalized database of knowledge, enhancing your ability to make informed decisions quickly and effectively.
With a comprehensive record of your investment history at your fingertips, you can compare current opportunities against past experiences. This not only bolsters your confidence but also ensures that each decision is grounded in a well-documented rationale.
Do you really want to delete this note?
This action cannot be undone.
| 52 Week Range |
36.57
66.61
|
| Price Target |
|
We'll email you a reminder when the closing price reaches USD.
Choose the stock you wish to monitor with a price alert.
This alert will be permanently deleted.
Independent Bank Group Inc
Earnings Call Analysis
Q4-2023 Analysis
Independent Bank Group Inc
As we close the chapter on the fourth quarter, it's heartening to see the company posting earnings of $14.9 million, or $0.36 per diluted share. After adjusting for one-time impacts such as the $8.3 million FDIC special assessment, earnings were even more impressive at $25.5 million or $0.62 per diluted share. This robust growth is testament to the unique strengths of our core customer base, particularly in the booming Texas and Colorado regions, providing a solid backbone for sustained net interest income (NII).
Financial prudence has led to a solid footing, with capital ratios portraying a healthy fiscal scenario – a Tier 1 capital ratio at 9.93%, and an overall capital ratio of 11.57%. The tangible book value per share has also seen a significant increase of 5.8%, culminating at $32.90 per share.
The quarter witnessed a slight decrease in net interest income to $106.3 million, with a Net Interest Margin (NIM) softly hit by unexpected loan growth. Nonetheless, the company's strategic moves indicate confidence in a progressive growth trajectory for NIM and NII throughout 2024. Eyeing the horizon, it's expected that earning asset yields will climb, and the financial burden of short-duration funding costs will lessen, spelling out a promising forecast for boosts in NII afield.
A prudent provision of $3.5 million was made in the fourth quarter, corresponding to the net loan growth observed and indicating a future provision rate of about 1% of loan growth. The steps taken are a reflection of confidence in the asset quality of the loan portfolio, reinforced by a major 34% reduction in classified assets.
We're witnessing a controlled environment with adjusted noninterest income at $12.4 million, with a marginal dip from the previous quarter. Concurrently, adjusted noninterest expenses rose slightly to $83.8 million. The projected quarters ahead are expected to see these expenses range between $85 and $86 million, indicating judicious fiscal management.
The growth in core loans excluding mortgage warehousing loans was sizeable at $383.6 million in the quarter, amounting to an 11% annualized increase. Looking at the entire year for 2023, the total loan growth was a stable 4.2%. Moving forward, it's projected that loan growth will moderate to a healthy mid-single-digit range of 4% to 6%. This strategy is paired with a commitment to equally invigorate the growth of deposits, to mirror or outpace the loan growth rate.
Strategic financial planning sets the stage for a return to more historic NIM levels by the latter half of 2025, potentially reaching between 350 to 360 basis points, should rate decreases occur sooner than anticipated. This trajectory sets the stage for a resurgence to an ROA of 120 to 125 and a ROTCE in the mid-teens of approximately 15% to 16% by the second half of 2025, painting a bright future for the company's fiscal health.
You don't have any saved screeners yet
Greetings, welcome to Independent Bank Group's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call.
[Operator Instructions]
Please note, this conference is being recorded. I'll now turn the conference over to Ankita Puri, EVP and Chief Legal Officer. Ms. Puri, you may now begin.
Good morning, and welcome to the Independent Bank Group Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. We appreciate you joining us. The related earnings press release and investor presentation can be accessed on our website at ir.ifinancial.com. I would like to remind you that remarks made today may include states are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual and expected results to differ.
We intend such statements to be covered by safe harbor provisions for forward-looking statements. Please see Page 5 of the text in the release or Page 2 of the slide presentation for our safe harbor statement. All comments made during today's call are subject to that statement. Please note that if we give guidance about future results, that guidance is a statement of management's beliefs at the time the statement is made, and we assume no obligation to publicly update guidance.
In this call, we will discuss several financial measures considered to be non-GAAP under the SEC's rules. Reconciliations of these financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are included in our release. I'm joined this morning by our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, David Brooks; our Vice Chairman, Dan Brooks; and our Chief Financial Officer, Paul Langdale. At the end of their remarks, David will open the call to questions. And with that, I will turn it over to David.
Thank you, Ankita. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining the call today. Fourth quarter earnings totaled $14.9 million or $0.36 per diluted share. Excluding the onetime impact of the $8.3 million FDIC special assessment and other onetimers, our adjusted fourth quarter earnings were $25.5 million or $0.62 per diluted share. During the quarter, we were pleased to see the continuation of healthy organic core loan growth, which came in seasonally strong at 11% annualized as pent-up demand from our relationship borrowers drove originations higher.
For the full year, loan growth totaled 4.2%. This healthy growth will help support NII on a going-forward basis and was driven by the needs of our core customers across growing Texas and Colorado economies. Credit quality remains excellent with low nonperforming assets and net charge-offs totaling just 1 basis point annualized for the second quarter in a row. And our capital ratios ended the quarter in a healthy position with a Tier 1 capital ratio at 9.93%, a total capital ratio at 11.57%. Notably, our TCE ratio strengthened to 7.55% and as of December 31, and we grew tangible book value by 5.8% to $32.90 per share. With that overview, I'll now turn the call over to Paul to give more details on the financials.
Thanks, David, and good morning, everyone. As David mentioned, net income for the quarter was $14.9 million, which includes $8.3 million related to the FDIC special assessment and $4.8 million of OREO related charges that Dan will discuss in more detail. Adjusted income for the quarter was $25.5 million or $0.62 per diluted share compared to $32.6 million or $0.79 per diluted share in the linked quarter. Net interest income was $106.3 million in the fourth quarter compared with $109 million in the linked quarter.
Our NIM for the quarter was impacted several basis points more than expected by the incremental loan growth during the quarter as we carried higher amounts of marginal liquidity to support the loan fundings. Encouragingly, we saw deposit costs peak during the quarter. And we have started to reprice some of our marginal liquidity downward as brokered rates have moved meaningfully lower. Of the $2.5 billion of brokered funds noted on Slide 20, the weighted average rate is 5.36%. We approximately $1.8 billion of the brokered portfolio is in CDs, while the remainder is in money market funds tied primarily to an index. Of the CDs, $1.3 billion will mature by the end of May. And currently, we are repricing these new brokered CDs below 5% on an all-in basis. As soon as the Fed moves, the index brokered funds will move in tandem as well.
Additionally, the overwhelming majority of our public funds book is indexed to Fed funds, which will move immediately with rate cuts. We have almost $2.1 billion in promotional CDs $1.1 billion of which are our 5.5% APY 6-month promotional CDs with a weighted average life of between 3 and 4 months. Beginning today, we have reduced the renewal rate on these 6-month CDs to 5.15% APY consistent with the market, which should also help drive expenses down. In addition to our enhanced liability sensitivity, which will be reflected in our IRR and 1-year GAAP disclosures, we also expect to continue repricing our fixed-rate loan portfolio upward. Our modeling indicates steadily expanding earning asset yields over the course of the year in both flat and down rate scenarios. We anticipate that these factors acting in concert will allow us to grow NIM and NII from quarter-to-quarter throughout 2024 and beyond.
Total borrowings were just $621.8 million at December 31, a slight increase from the linked quarter. Still, borrowings remain at a low level relative to earlier in 2023. Additionally, we may explore utilizing BTFP during the first quarter to replace higher cost FHLB advances as 1-year OIS has evolved favorably to FHLB rates. The substantial contingent funding capacity available to us and low level of borrowing utilization strengthens our balance sheet against any subsequent shocks and positions us well to capitalize on sustained growth in earning asset yields. We recorded a provision of $3.5 million for the fourth quarter, which supported the net growth we experienced during the quarter despite an improvement in the MEVs in the CECL model. Going forward, we expect provision that represents about 1% of loan growth. This is, of course, dependent on all else being held equal in the CECL model, which could, of course, be impacted by further changes to the macroeconomic forecast or specific reserves. Adjusted noninterest income was $12.4 million for the quarter, down slightly from adjusted noninterest income of $13.4 million for the linked quarter. Adjusted noninterest expense totaled $83.8 million for the quarter, up from $81.3 million in the linked quarter.
Going forward, I expect noninterest expense to be between $85 million and $86 million per quarter. These are all the comments I have today. So with that, I'll turn the call over to Dan.
Thanks, Paul. Core loans held for investment, excluding mortgage warehouse loans, increased by $383.6 million or 11% annualized in the fourth quarter. For full year 2023, loans grew by $569.9 million or 4.2%. The Growth for the fourth quarter and for the full quarter was supported by demand from our core customers across our markets in Texas and Colorado. Average mortgage warehouse purchase loans were $408.4 million for the quarter, down 4.1% from the third quarter averages.
Overall, we saw relative stability in these balances on a month-to-month basis, and we anticipate these balances to generally remain stable moving forward. Credit quality metrics continue to remain strong during the fourth quarter. Nonperforming assets were down 1 basis point to 0.32% of total assets at quarter end. And the bank again adjusted a single basis point of annualized charge-offs for the quarter. For the full year 2023, net charge-offs also totaled just 1 basis point of average loans. We were successful in moving a property held in ORE out of the bank during the quarter, which resulted in a loss on sale of $1.8 million. We also took a $3 million write-off related to the 1 repossessed property remaining in ORE as we position that property for an eventual sale. This is consistent with our overall philosophy of disposing of ORE in an expedited manner. Overall asset quality trends are very positive. And while we are always vigilant against emerging risks, we currently do not see any areas of concern across the loan portfolio.
We are particularly encouraged that classified assets fell by 34% from $191.1 million at September 30 to $126 million at December 31, due both to payoffs and upgrades. Total classified loans plus ORE bank capital was just 6.2% at year-end, indicative of the overall health of the portfolio even in a higher rate environment. These are all the comments I have related to the loan portfolio this morning. So with that, I'll turn it back over to David.
Thanks, Dan. While 2023 was a difficult year for our company and our industry, we're happy to be through it, and we remain very encouraged heading into 2024. We expect earning asset yields to continue their march upward, while short-duration funding cost pressures have already begun to abate as the forward curve points to meaningful rate cuts on the horizon.
As Paul noted, we have already been able to reprice some of our marginal funding down in the first quarter, and we expect to see NIM expansion and NII growth in the first quarter. In addition, we will maintain our discipline on the expense front, reallocating expenses to only the most strategic investments in our franchise. And to that end, we are excited to announce that we are opening our first full-service branch in San Antonio in the first quarter. This will allow our talented team already operating there to better serve our customers with a full spate of deposit products. Our company is fortunate to be supported by the growing Texas and Colorado economies, both of which are experiencing sustained inflows of labor and capital that insulate them from broader macroeconomic volatility. We we're able to capitalize on this position and strength because across 4 of the most dynamic metropolitan markets in the country because of the incredible teams that we have across our footprint.
I'm perennially thankful to our employees all of whom are committed to serving our customers and communities by working together to provide outstanding service and fostering meaningful lasting relationships. Thank you for taking the time to join us today. We'll now open the line to questions. Operator?
We'll now be conducting a question-and-answer session.
[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from the line of Brandon King with Truist Securities.
Yes. So Paul, I appreciate all the commentary around NII, deposits. But I was hoping to get a better sense of how you're thinking about the pace of NII growth in 2024.
I think in the first and second quarters, Brandon, we're going to see an inflection in NII, some growth that will accelerate through the back half of '24 and then continue to accelerate through '25. As we think about our balance sheet today compared to where it was even just a quarter ago, we have substantially enhanced liability sensitivity, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks. That's going to prepare us to really capitalize on any rate cuts that we see over the next 6 to 8 quarters as well as just get the natural lift that we would have even in a flat rate environment from our earning assets repricing. So what we've tried to do strategically is prepare ourselves for any scenario that the Fed throws at us to benefit from after 2023.
That's helpful. And is there any way you could potentially quantify how much higher maybe kind of exit rate 2024 or 4Q '24, how much higher NII could be relative to what it was this quarter?
If we think about it on a NIM basis, Brandon, I think we have the opportunity to get back to our historic levels of profitability by year-end '25. It's really a 6- to 8-quarter push for us. So I think we'll see some meaningful lift really accelerating, as I said, through the back half of this year.
And then within your NII expectations, what are you expecting on the loan growth front? It was pretty strong this quarter. Are you expecting potentially a slightly slower pace going forward?
Yes, Brandon, the loan growth was outsized this quarter and really just a lot of factors, some deals from third quarter got pushed to the fourth and a number of our longtime clients. We're being opportunistic to try to pick up some assets here before the rates start coming down and cap rates start to coming down.
But we're expecting mid-single-digit growth for the year. The pipeline is -- we indicated that the fourth quarter pipeline was really strong going into the quarter. First quarter, we've still got a nice pipeline, but it's not like it was going into the fourth quarter. So we do expect that growth to moderate mid-single digits, 4% to 6% in that range. We do expect also we've done a lot of work the last couple of quarters in terms of our treasury our relationship officers and helping them understand the dynamic of growing deposits as well. So we're going to our base model, budget and plan and commitment is to grow our deposits at the same rate or approximately same pace or faster than we grew our loans this year. So we know, understand the value and the importance of continuing to grow that core deposit base as we grow the loans. We expect both to be mid-single digits.
Our next question is from the line of Brady Gailey with KBW.
But I know it's tough to forecast nowadays. But when you look at your sensitivity to down rates, like say, in a down of 100 basis point scenario, what does the model say about how much that could benefit spread income?
So our gap, just for example, Brady, has doubled quarter-to-quarter. So we have substantially, as I said, enhanced liability sensitivity. I think you'll get meaningful double-digit pickup in net income for even a down 100 rate environment.
All right. And then, Paul, I heard your comment about getting back to kind of your historic profitability level by the end of next year to the end of 2025. How do you guys think about historic profitability? Like what is that in terms of ROA or ROE or whatever metrics you guys focus on?
I think that as we think about it, Brady, by second half of '25 depending on how much and how quickly the Fed rates come -- pull rates down, we should see us be able to achieve our more historic NIM in the mid-3s, so 350, 360, and that range is what our forward models show in the back half of '25, that happens more quickly if rates come down more quickly. But again, just I think what we think is a middle-of-the-road assumption gets us to that level.
At that level, given what we've done with our cost structure, we would get back into that 120, 125 return on assets, and then that should translate depending on any what the capital level is, of course, would put us somewhere in the mid-teens, 15% to 15%, 16% ROTCE. So those are the numbers we think we will be back at by second half of '25.
That makes sense. And then finally for me, I know Independent has been a great organic grower over the years, but also a pretty good bank buyer. And if you look at what's happened with the long end of the curve, like the 10-year volume yield went from 5% to basically 4% now. So that kind of helps with the interest rate mark piece of M&A. But maybe just an update on -- is M&A falling here? Do you expect it to be active this year? Do you expect IBTX to be still involved and interested in M&A?
Yes. We remain interested. We remain close to a lot of really -- there are a lot of really high-quality banks, as you mentioned, like us that have struggled with margin and some of the banks have struggled with bigger AOCI marks as you alluded to, Brady. So this does help immensely. We've been obviously focused on our own situation mostly trying to get our earnings and NII and NIM back to more -- moving back towards historic levels.
But we remain interested. I do think there will be some -- I think right now that there's seems to be more of a -- it is wait and let that settle out for another quarter or 2. So my guess is probably back half of '24 and we will definitely be interested and be a participant in that. Obviously, we need to perform, and we need our own stock to perform well in order to be at that table, but we expect to be there.
Our next questions are from the line of Matt Olney with Stephens.
I just want to go back to the discussion around the NII and the NIM outlook. It seems like we've been talking about stabilization for a while, but the results continue to erode lower I think investors are looking for more details as far as the outlook here.
So in the fourth quarter, the NIM was, call it, 2.49% and the NII was $106.3 million -- can you be more specific about your near-term expectations? And we talk about stabilization and inflection. I think those terms can be kind of used loosely sometimes. So any more details you can provide on both the NII and the NIM in the first quarter?
Sure, Matt. Happy to give you a little bit more color on that. As we look at our modeling the multiple scenarios that we show in both flat and down rate environments, and we modeled 3 scenarios specifically. We modeled the flat rate environment. We modeled the forward curve, and we modeled the Fed's summary of economic projections and as we talk through those in our outflow, all of those 3 scenarios show us growing NIM by 5 to 7 basis points in the first quarter.
From there, that growth accelerates to where we can get back to, call it, a 3% NIM by the end of '24. And then as we mentioned, back to a 3.5% NIM by the end '25. So that's our target, and that's really what we're focused on. As I mentioned again, I mean, we've moved a lot of pieces around on the balance sheet in the fourth quarter to enhance our liability sensitivity and capture that upside of down rate environments. So we wanted to make sure that we were optimally positioned to recapture the earnings that we lost on the way up for rates when rates come back down. And so that's more of just a modifier from the flat rate scenario where we're still going to grow in starting, as I said, by 5 to 7 basis points and then forward accelerating over the back half of the year.
That's helpful, Paul. And I guess if the NIM is going to move higher in the first quarter, I would assume that on a monthly basis, the NIM has already inflected at some point late in the fourth quarter. Is that a reasonable assumption? Any color there?
That is a reasonable assumption.
Perfect. And then I guess, switching gears on the expense side. I think you gave us the $85 million, $86 million outlook from here, a touch higher than what we've seen over the last few quarters as far as expectations. Anything to call out there?
Just a normal first quarter expenses are generally higher for us. We have obviously merit and bonus season. As we think about some investments that we have to make, obviously, Matt, we'll remain focused really on expense discipline, and we'll be mindful of trying to find any offsets we can to where we have expense increases -- that's something that, as you know, has been a focus of ours for really the last 6 quarters, and that's something that we're going to remain focused on in 2024.
And just to clarify, the $85 million to $86 million, that's guidance or a goal for the next several quarters, did I catch that right? Or is that just the first quarter?
Yes. That's my expectation, really around $85 million for the next several quarters.
Our next question comes from the line of Michael Rose with Raymond James.
Maybe for Dan, I just wanted to get some color. Just want to get some color on the CRE credit this quarter and what the resolution could potentially look like there? And then I was also just curious as to why some of the OREO loss flow through fee income as opposed to charge-offs, would just like some clarification there.
So Michael, this is Dan. The credit that we moved to nonaccrual, which I'm assuming is what you're asking about was one property in Houston and that has been, excuse me, that loan remains current and the owners are preparing to sell that asset and we just felt like it was in a position that there might be a slight loss on it. So we just positioned it for that, but we expect that will be resolved sometime here in the first part of the year. And as it relates to...
As it pertains to the accounting treatment, Michael, we've always taken OREO expenses and income into noninterest income and noninterest expense, respectively. We've recently moved -- I think I noted on the third quarter call, OREO income and expense to offset each other into noninterest expense. But when we book a gain or a loss on sale, we've put that through the fee line consistent with what our auditors and what our internal accounting teams feel is the appropriate accounting treatment.
That's helpful. And then maybe just -- I know we've probably beaten the margin question a lot here, but just to kind of follow up on that. What does your kind of baseline forecast include in terms of cuts for this year. And I guess, the step-up from here to kind of what you talked about, I guess, for mid to late next year in the mid-350s, 360s is a really big ramp.
And I think it's going to be probably difficult for some investors to kind of see. So can you kind of just give us the -- help us with the bridge to kind of get there? And kind of what really needs to go right and your baseline scenario isn't correct, what could that range look like if we're higher for longer, for instance, or you have more growth and you have to find it with higher-cost deposits, kind of et cetera, just looking for kind of a fair-ball based kind of case for the margin.
Sure. Happy to walk you through the modeling logic there. As we think about a base case scenario, we're assuming a flat rate environment. As you know, over the last 4 quarters, we've really talked about our ability to reprice earning assets due to our fixed rate CRE book and our ability to roll those loans over. New volume rates are coming on right at 8% right now. So we've been able to continue to expand earning asset yields even as short-term rates have peaked. That's something that we're going to be able to do even in an environment where you see several Fed cuts.
So we're focused, obviously, on expanding the margin, topping out those deposit costs even in a flat rate environment. As I noted, because the curve is pointing down, and because we have run two other scenarios with 75 basis points and 150 basis points, 125 basis points of cuts, respectively, we are going to be able to capture a substantial amount of deposit cost decreases on the way down, which will help drive that margin even higher. All of our marginal funding is held really short. And as you know, Michael, that's really expensive to do at the top of the cycle. We've done that so that we can really focus on optimizing NII and NIM growth in 2024. If I look across the portfolio, I look at the FHLB advances, for example, are right at [ 543. ] As I mentioned, the brokered portfolio at [ 536 ] our 6-month branch CDs $1.1 billion of those at 550 APY. For us, we have a significant opportunity even in the first quarter to reduce all of those costs as all of those individual components have seen 30, 40 basis points of pickup on spread as we begin to reprice those.
Having held short, that's really what's going to drive the margin, the upside to reducing the funding costs -- is ultimately what's going to create the delta between a base case scenario where you have a flatbed funds rate environment and an upside case where you have down 150 call it.
Our next question is from the line of Stephen Scouten with Piper Sandler.
Paul, I wanted to follow up. I think I heard you say that the down 100 basis point scenario was going to be an up double-digit NII kind of percentage. And I'm just kind of wondering versus the last Q, I think where it showed 1.66% and then down 100 basis points. Like what change, whether it's in the modeling or what you guys did from a hedging or structural standpoint to create the delta that seems to have come about?
The 3 things there. I'll correct you slightly, double-digit net income. NII is right on the cusp of double digits. But yes, I mean, it's a substantial increase in our liability sensitivity from last quarter. Two things really driving that. One is the updated deposit study that we do and the remixing of non-maturity deposits into short duration time deposits and other wholesale types of funding. That for us has substantially enhanced our liability sensitivity.
The additional thing, as I noted, Stephen, is the indexation of a substantial portion of our deposit base to Fed funds. So our ability to drop deposit costs, whereas in a normal down rate environment, if we have exception pricing as a tool that we use to negotiate with our depositors, it's a little bit harder to bring those costs down. For us now, we have that indexed tool that's going to be able to drop our deposit costs instantaneously with Fed. So all of those actions that we undertook to enhance that portion of our deposit base increase that liability sensitivity. But really, the reduction of those non-maturity deposits was the single largest driver of that model.
And I think last quarter, you had said it was $3 billion to $4 billion in index deposits. So has that number gone up further on a quarter-over-quarter basis?
That doesn't include the 6-months CDs, the promo CDs as well as some of the broker CDs. So if you look at the portfolio in total, we're going to be able to move roughly half of the deposit book, which is really a substantial portion of the interest-bearing deposit book inside of 4 months for any move in Fed funds.
Great. That's extremely helpful. And then I guess just my only other follow-up is kind of I'm curious what you guys are seeing around new CRE demand, obviously, put up really strong growth this quarter. And then I respect -- heard the comment that pipelines maybe aren't quite as strong, but still guiding towards positive loan growth, how -- what's kind of the pushback on these 8% rates within the CRE markets? And do you think we'll see kind of a pickup in the back half if we do indeed get the projected rate cuts?
Yes. The granularity of our loan request continues to be the theme Stephen, as we go forward, we've seen a lot of requests, generally smaller requests, acquiring families, acquiring assets, investment groups acquiring assets is what we've seen on the CRE side. We have seen a drop in demand for large CRE deals.
We're not seeing much construction and haven't been doing much construction lending. So we haven't seen much there. We're really looking -- as we planned for 2024 and '25, Stephen, we've invested, as Paul mentioned earlier, in doing what we can to balance our future growth away from being so CRE concentrated. We're in the process of hiring some additional commercial industrial lenders in our major markets, adding to the teams we already have there. And then also SBA is something, again, given our granular nature of our request, we do have some SBA request. We haven't set that up as a big national business or anything, but in terms of assisting our customers. So we think we've missed some opportunities there.
So we've added to our SBA team or adding to our SBA team in Houston and in Austin in particular. So we're doing what we can on that front, but it's partly also why we're thinking, Stephen, that it's kind of a mid-single-digit growth because of the uncertainty out there in the CRE market and our desire to really balance up our loan growth with our deposit growth. So we think those are all achievable for 2024.
The next question is come from the line of Brett Rabatin with Hovde Group.
I wanted to go back, Paul, to a question to a comment you made earlier about the Bank Term Funding Program it sounded like you were going to utilize that to some extent, this quarter, presuming that those run out at some point. Was the usage of the BTFP, is that going to be to replace I didn't quite catch if it was to replace some of the borrowings? Or if you just intended to kind of ride the spread that a lot of banks seem to have been joined at the present time?
Yes. So for example, Brett, if I'm looking at the FHLB advances, which at [ 12/31 ] were -- cost us 543 basis points. And I look at where 1 year OIS is today, even at 490, I mean it's a 50 basis point spread from where that funding is. And so that would be an example of where we would utilize BTFP prior to its expiration to lock in that funding as a way to reduce our liquidity costs.
And then you've talked quite a bit about the funding side of the equation. Can we talk about just the lending side and just how much of the fixed rate loan portfolio over prices this year and maybe in 1Q specifically?
Yes. We anticipate about $2 billion of fixed rate assets in variable -- sorry, adjustable assets to reprice over the course of 2024. That starts in the first quarter with several hundred million dollars and then we'll accelerate from there through the end of the year. So really, the bulk of the repricing activity, it's pretty evenly distributed, but it's a slight acceleration from the beginning of the year. We're looking at a maturity schedule.
Some of those contractual maturities obviously, we expect to be able to reprice those up about 300 basis points, similar to the adjustable notes. So if you think of our 3- to 5-year fixed rate CRE loan book, if ever make a loan past that in CRE, we have an adjustable mechanism at the 5-year mark. So that's what I'm referring to when I talk about the adjustable rate book. In addition, you still do have some prepayments. So we still are seeing even at much lower levels, some prepayments coming from our core customers. Obviously, as we booked loans at the top, we've put in prepayment penalties -- usually in the form of [ 321 ] to try to mitigate the down rate environment risk that we would have to earning asset yields. So all in, Brett, we do expect some meaningful repricing of assets over the course of the year that should look to earning asset yields.
And then lastly, just for me, and I know mortgage is have to predict, but in terms of thinking about fee income this year, obviously, fee income was kind of flat down in '23. Any drivers -- I think you talked a little bit about treasury, David. Any drivers to fee income in '24 that might be notable aside from a possible increase in mortgage assuming that gets back to a more normal level at some point?
Yes. Brett, I think you hit the nail on the head. I mean, apart from mortgage, which is a wildcard. And obviously, if rates come down some more, we could see some meaningful lift in mortgage demand. We would expect relative stability in the other areas of fee income. We're focused on fees, obviously, to the extent that we can optimize those lines, we're going to do it. But I think mortgage is really what's going to swing that line from one direction to the other.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Brandon King with Truist Securities.
I had a few follow-ups. And I just want to understand the potential range of outcomes for the NIM. It seems like that 350 by the back half of 2025 is kind of a baseline scenario. So is it fair to assume that if the forward curve does play out that the margin could be closer to 4% by end of 2025.
No, I think, Brandon, in a scenario where we have 100, call it, 150 basis points of cuts or 125 basis points of cut that's really going to get us to that 355 to 365 range. In a scenario where we have flat rates, it's going to take just a little bit longer to get there. But helpful thing for our balance sheet, obviously, is if we're able to continue repricing our earning assets at current rates, i.e., the curve doesn't move, that's going to position us for continued NIM expansion as well.
So, if you think of all the moving pieces together, the range of outcomes between those 3 scenarios is maybe a little tighter than you might anticipate even though we haven't used our liability sensitivity that really offsets any impact to earning asset yields in a down rate environment.
That makes sense. And then you seem pretty confident in hitting those net interest margin targets, which you're modeling forecast. Could you just talk about any risks that could prevent you from getting to where you think you'll get to?
Yes. Of course, the macroeconomic and liquidity environment is always going to pose a risk to the outlook. It's hard to forecast the unknown unknowns, as you know, Brandon, but I think we've been pleasantly surprised in the soft landing narrative, how the economy continues to perform how we continue to see available liquidity, how we're able to reduce some of our marginal funding costs.
Obviously, if the liquidity environment changed or if we saw any meaningful reduction of liquidity in the banking system, that could create some upward pressure on funding costs even in a down rate environment. I'd say that's probably the biggest risk. Although as it stands today, I really don't see that.
At this time, I'll hand the call back to David Brooks for closing remarks.
Thank you for joining us today. We as I said in my prepared remarks, it was a difficult year in 2023, but we feel very encouraged and positive about the trajectory of the bank's margins and earnings here going forward. So appreciate everyone's time. Hope everyone has a great day. Thanks.
This concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.