First Financial Bancorp

NASDAQ:FFBC

Earnings Call Analysis

Strong Quarter with Record Earnings and Steady Growth

The company reported an outstanding quarter with adjusted earnings per share of $0.65, achieving a return on assets of 1.4% and a return on tangible common equity of 20.9%. Loan balances surged by 11% on an annualized basis, contributing to a $14.4 million or 7% increase in total adjusted revenue from the previous quarter. The net interest margin held steady at 4.1%, and fee income hit a record high, driven by foreign exchange and leasing gains, each up by over 60%. Noninterest expenses rose slightly due to increased variable compensation. Guidance for the next quarter projects a net interest margin between 4% and 4.05%, with expected fee income ranging from $58 million to $60 million.

Strong 2024 First Half Performance

The company reported an outstanding second quarter in 2024, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) hitting $0.65, translating to a return on assets of 1.4% and a return on tangible common equity of 20.9%. A robust 11% annualized growth in loans was a key driver of this performance, with broad-based contributions notably from commercial banking.

Deposits and Interest Income

Average deposits saw a significant increase, rising by $350 million, or 10.6% annualized. The deposit growth was primarily fueled by interest-bearing deposits and seasonal increases in public fund balances. The net interest margin remained stable at an impressive 4.10%, a rate among the top in its peer group. Total adjusted revenue increased by 7%, amounting to $14.4 million sequentially, further illustrating the company’s effective management of interest income.

Record Fee Income and Noninterest Revenue

The firm achieved record noninterest income of $61.6 million, with extraordinary fee income growth across various sectors. Foreign exchange revenue alone surged by more than 60% compared to the previous quarter, while leasing, mortgage banking, and bankcard income all recorded double-digit percentage growth. This diversity in revenue sources underscores the company’s well-rounded business strategy.

Controlling Costs and Efficiency Initiatives

Adjusted expenses rose slightly by 1.2% due to the first full quarter of Agile expenses, annual salary adjustments, and performance-based compensation linked to increased fee income. However, a workforce efficiency initiative that has eliminated 90 positions indicates proactive measures in cost management and operational efficiency, expected to yield further dividends moving forward.

Credit Quality and Asset Management

Credit metrics showed positive trends, with net charge-offs declining by 23 basis points to just 15 basis points, marking three consecutive quarters of decline. The Allowance for Credit Losses (ACL) reached 1.36% of total loans, an increase that provides a buffer against potential future losses. Despite some credit migration observed, the overall quality of the loan portfolio remained stable.

Future Guidance and Expectations

Looking ahead, the company forecasts low single-digit loan growth for the near term, reflecting a modest increase in payoff trends and seasonal adjustments in production. Revenue from fee income is expected to range between $58 million and $60 million in the coming quarters, alongside projections for noninterest expenses to remain between $122 million and $124 million. These projections illustrate a cautious optimism amid a softening of loan growth expectations, particularly in the Agile business segment.

Commitment to Shareholder Returns

In an impressive move to deliver value to shareholders, the Board approved a dividend increase of $0.01 to $0.24 per share, representing a 4.3% raise and aligning with the company’s target payout ratio of 35% to 40% of net income. This decision reiterates the company’s commitment to enhancing shareholder returns amid sustained operational success.

Market Observations and Strategic Positioning

Given the current economic landscape and responsive action strategies like capital conservation and efficiency improvements, the company is poised to navigate forthcoming market shifts. Anticipated stability in deposit growth combined with a strong pipeline suggests resilience against broader economic fluctuations.

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q2

[Operator]

Thank you for standing by. My name is Ian, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the First Financial Bancorp Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call and webcast. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand the call over to Scott Crawley, Controller. Scott, you may begin your conference.

[Scott Crawley, executive]

Thank you, Ian. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on today's conference call to discuss First Financial Bancorp's second quarter and year-to-date financial results. Participating on today's call will be Archie Brown, President and Chief Executive Officer; Jamie Anderson, Chief Financial Officer; and Bill Harrod, Chief Credit Officer.

Both the press release we issued yesterday and the accompanying slide presentation are available on our website at www.bankatfirst.com under the Investor Relations section. We'll make reference to the slides contained in the accompanying presentation during today's call.

Additionally, please refer to the forward-looking statements disclosure contained in the second quarter 2024 earnings release as well as our SEC filings for a full discussion of the company's risk factors. The information we will provide today is accurate as of June 30, 2024, and we will not be updating any forward-looking statements to reflect facts or circumstances after this call.

I'll now turn the call over to Archie Brown.

[Archie Brown, executive]

Thank you, Scott. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for today's call. Yesterday afternoon, we announced our financial results for the second quarter. I'll provide some highlights on our recent performance and then turn the call over to Jamie to provide further information.

We had an outstanding quarter. Adjusted earnings per share was $0.65 in the second quarter, which resulted in a return on assets of 1.4% and return on tangible common equity of 20.9%. Loan growth was exceptionally strong again this quarter, with balances increasing by 11% on an annualized basis, and this was a significant driver in the increase in net interest income.

Growth was broad-based and was led by Commercial Banking. Similarly, average deposits grew approximately 11% for the period, with interest-bearing deposits and a seasonal increase in public fund balances driving the increase.

Our 4.1% net interest margin was unchanged from the first quarter and remains at or near the top of the peer group. Total adjusted revenue increased $14.4 million or 7% compared to the linked quarter. Additionally, we posted record adjusted noninterest income of $61.6 million. Growth in fee income was broad-based for the period, with foreign exchange revenue growing more than 60% from the linked quarter.

Leasing business income, mortgage banking and bankcard income, all increased by double-digit percentages, and wealth management income posted another record quarter. Adjusted expenses increased by 1.2% compared to the first quarter. The increase included a full quarter of Agile expenses, the impact of annual salary adjustments that occurred late in the first quarter and variable compensation tied to our record fee income.

Through our workforce efficiency initiative, we have eliminated 90 full-time positions to date, and this work will continue through the remainder of the year.

I am pleased with the 23 basis point decline in net charge-offs to 15 basis points, which marks the third consecutive quarter that charge-offs have declined. We did experience some downward credit migration during the period. However, this was not concentrated in any particular loan type, and nonperforming loans as a percentage of total assets was relatively flat compared to the prior quarter.

Our ACL increased to 1.36% of total loans. And based on our outlook for loan growth and credit quality, we would expect provision to decline to levels approximately the first quarter in coming periods.

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Jamie to discuss these results in greater detail. After Jamie's discussion, I will wrap up with some additional forward-looking commentary and closing remarks. Jamie?

[James Anderson, executive]

Thank you, Archie, and good morning, everyone. Slides 4, 5 and 6 provide a summary of our most recent financial results. The second quarter was really strong, highlighted by exceptional earnings, a flat net interest margin, record fee income and solid balance sheet growth.

Our net interest margin remains very strong at 4.10%. This was unchanged from the linked quarter due to increases in both loan and investment yields offsetting the pressure on deposit costs. We were pleased that the increase in deposit costs moderated in comparison to prior quarters, and we expect this trend to hold. However, we expect slight margin contraction in the near term.

Total loans grew 11% on an annualized basis, which exceeded our expectations. Loan growth was broad-based with larger increases in C&I, Summit and Agile. Average deposit balances increased $350 million or 10.6% on an annualized basis and included a seasonal increase in public funds. Overall, the deposit mix continues to shift to higher cost deposits. However, we maintained 22% of our total balances in noninterest-bearing accounts and are strategically focused on maintaining deposit balances.

Turning to the income statement. Second quarter fee income was the highest in the company's history. Foreign exchange and leasing had solid quarters and wealth management had their best revenue quarter ever. Noninterest expenses increased slightly from the linked quarter due to higher variable compensation. However, we are starting to recognize the impact from our efficiency efforts and expect to see further benefits in the coming periods.

Our ACL coverage increased 7 basis points during the quarter to 1.36% of total loans. This resulted in $16.4 million of provision expense during the period, which was driven by loan growth, and slight credit migration. Overall, asset quality trends were mixed with significantly lower net charge-offs and an increase in classified assets.

Annual net charge-offs declined 23 basis points during the period, and NPAs as a percentage of assets were relatively flat at 35 basis points. From a capital standpoint, our regulatory ratios are in excess of both internal and regulatory targets. Tangible book value increased $0.44 or 3.5%, while our tangible common equity ratio was flat during the period.

Additionally, our Board of Directors elected to increase our common dividend during the period. We have always been focused on delivering value to our shareholders, and this step is further proof of that commitment.

Slide 7 reconciles our GAAP earnings to adjusted earnings, highlighting items that we believe are important to understanding our quarterly performance. Adjusted net income was $61.7 million or $0.65 per share for the quarter. Adjusted earnings exclude the impact of our efficiency initiative as well as acquisition, severance and branch consolidation costs.

As depicted on Slide 8, these adjusted earnings equate to a return on average assets of 1.4%, a return on average tangible common equity of 21% and pretax, pre-provision ROA of 210 basis points.

Turning to Slides 9 and 10. Net interest margin was unchanged from the linked quarter at 4.1%. Loan yields increased 10 basis points during the period, and the yield on the investment portfolio increased 22 basis points. The increase in investment yields was driven by higher reinvestment rates as well as the full-quarter benefit from the portfolio repositioning we executed in the first quarter.

Funding costs increased 13 basis points during the period, which was significantly lower than in prior periods. Our cost of deposits increased 14 basis points compared to the linked quarter. However, as you can see on the bottom right chart, that pace of growth declined significantly by the end of the quarter.

Slide 11 details the betas utilized in our net interest income modeling. The increase in deposit costs has moved our current beta up 2 percentage points to 45%, which matches our internal modeling. Going forward, we expect deposit cost increases to be a function of mix.

Slide 12 outlines our various sources of liquidity and borrowing capacity. We continue to believe we have the flexibility required to manage the balance sheet through the expected economic environment.

Slide 14 illustrates our current loan mix and balance changes compared to the linked quarter. As I mentioned before, loan balances increased 11% on an annualized basis, with growth in almost every portfolio. As you can see on the right, the largest areas of growth for the quarter were in C&I, Summit and Agile. We expect Agile's growth to moderate in the coming periods as historically, the second quarter is the strongest quarter for originations.

Slide 15 provides detail on our loan concentration by industry. We believe our loan portfolio remains sufficiently diversified to provide protection from deterioration in any particular industry.

Slide 16 provides detail on our office portfolio. Similar to last quarter, about 4% of our total loan book is concentrated in office space, and the overall portfolio performance metrics remain strong. No office relationships were downgraded to classified during the quarter, and our total nonaccrual balance for this portfolio remains approximately $17 million.

Slide 17 shows our deposit mix as well as the progression of average deposits from the linked quarter. In total, average deposit balances increased $350 million during the quarter, driven primarily by a seasonal increase in public funds as well as increases in retail CDs, money market accounts and broker deposits.

These increases offset modest declines in noninterest-bearing deposits and savings accounts. Similar to recent quarters, this was expected as the current interest rate environment has driven customers to higher-cost deposit products.

Slide 18 illustrates trends in our average personal, business and public fund deposits as well as a comparison of our borrowing capacity to our uninsured deposits.

On the bottom right of the slide, you can see our adjusted uninsured deposits were [ $3.2 billion ]. This equates to 23% of our total deposits. We remain comfortable with this concentration and believe our borrowing capacity provides sufficient flexibility to respond to any event that would stress our larger deposit balances.

Slide 19 highlights our noninterest income for the quarter. Total fee income increased to $62 million during the quarter, which was the highest quarter in the history of the company. Bannockburn and Summit both had solid quarters, and wealth management posted its best revenue quarter ever. Additionally, mortgage, bankcard and deposit service charge income increased from first-quarter levels.

Noninterest expense for the quarter is outlined on Slide 20. Core expenses increased a modest $1.4 million during the period. This was driven by an increase in variable compensation tied to fee income, the full-quarter impact from Agile and annual salary adjustments. We have also started to recognize some of the expected benefit from our ongoing efficiency initiative.

Turning now to Slides 21 and 22. Our ACL model resulted in a total allowance, which includes both funded and unfunded reserves, of $173 million and $16.4 million of total provision expense during the period. This resulted in an ACL that was 1.36% of total loans, which was a 7 basis point increase from the first quarter.

Provision expense was driven by loan growth and credit migration. Net charge-offs declined 23 basis points to 15 basis points, and our NPAs to total assets held steady at 35 basis points. In other credit trends, classified asset balances increased to 1.07% of total assets, primarily due to the downgrade of [ 4 ] relationships. These downgrades were not concentrated in any loan or collateral type.

Our ACL coverage increased, and we continue to believe we have modeled conservatively to build a reserve that reflects the losses we expect from our portfolio. We anticipate our ACL coverage will remain relatively flat or increase slightly in future periods as our model responds to changes in the macroeconomic environment.

Finally, as shown on Slides 23, 24 and 25, regulatory capital ratios remain in excess of regulatory minimums and internal targets. During the second quarter, tangible book value per share increased 3.5% and the TCE ratio was flat due to balance sheet growth. Absent the impact from AOCI, the TCE ratio would have been 9.13% compared to 7.23% as reported. Slide 24 demonstrates that our capital ratios would remain in excess of regulatory targets, including the unrealized losses in the securities portfolio.

Our total shareholder return remains strong, with 36% of our earnings returned to our shareholders during the period through the common dividend. As I mentioned earlier, we were very pleased that the Board elected to increase the common [ dividend ], demonstrating our commitment to provide an attractive return to our shareholders. We will continue to evaluate various capital actions as the year progresses.

I'll now turn it back over to Archie for some comments on our outlook. Archie?

[Archie Brown, executive]

Thank you, Jamie. Before we end our prepared remarks, I want to comment on our forward-looking guidance, which can be found on Slide 26. Loan pipelines continue to be healthy, although we expect a modest increase in payoff trends and seasonally low production in our Agile business unit to contribute to overall loan growth in the low single digits on an annualized basis over the near term.

For securities, we expect the portfolio to remain stable. Deposit growth has been steady, and we expect to grow more modestly over the next quarter as seasonal public funds move out. Our net interest margin continues to remain strong and resilient, and we expect it to be between 4% and [ 4.05% ]. For the next quarter, this assumes a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September.

We expect our credit cost to decline slightly in the back half of the year, while ACL coverage as a percentage of loans is expected to be stable to slightly increasing. For the full year, we expect net charge-offs to be approximately 25 to 30 basis points.

Fee income is expected to be between $58 million and $60 million, which includes $13 million to [ $15 ] million for foreign exchange and $16 million to [ $18 ] million for the leasing business. Noninterest expense is expected to be between $122 million and $124 million and remain stable, excluding the leasing business.

Finally, we're pleased to announce that our Board of Directors approved a $0.01 increase to this common dividend to $0.24. The 4.3% dividend increase results in a dividend payout ratio within our target range of 35% to 40% of net income and increases our already attractive yield. I'm encouraged with our operating performance through the first half of 2024, and look forward to continued success for the full year.

We'll now open up the call for questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Chris McGratty with KBW.

[Christopher McGratty, analyst]

Jamie, maybe start with the margin question, obviously outperform expectations this quarter. Your slides show a cumulative beta of 45% on the deposit, [ 70% ] on the loans. How are you thinking about NIM if the forward curve plays out? I know you have a September cut, but I know the market is expecting more next year. How do we think about margin into next year?

[James Anderson, executive]

Obviously, we were asset-sensitive benefited from the increase in rates over the past 6, 8 quarters. But -- so when we look at it and we look at rate cuts, kind of a methodical 25 basis point rate cuts by the Fed, I mean the first couple, we think that we're going to have some difficulty reducing deposit costs significantly. I mean we'll get some relief on some of the more rate-sensitive categories.

So we think that the first cut or two impacts the margin a little bit more significantly than the ones going forward. So the first couple of rates, 25 basis point rate cuts, we think we get about an 8, 9 basis points decline in the margin. And then going forward from that, we're going to get like a 5 or 6 basis point decline in the margin in the subsequent cuts.

We just think the first couple of cuts, it's going to be difficult to get the full impact on the deposit side. And also, I mean, I would tell you our strategy at this point is that just given the fact that we've seen some outsized loan growth, the acquisition of Agile as well over the past 2 or 3 quarters, we've been leaning more towards being a little more aggressive on the deposit side and bringing in deposit balances and having a -- and trying to match off that loan growth with deposit growth, even if it's in some of the higher-cost buckets.

[Christopher McGratty, analyst]

That's great. And Archie, maybe a question on capital. You've got really good capital generation, your CET1 ratio is pretty solid. How are you thinking about using -- potentially using your excess capital and your multiple into '25?

[Archie Brown, executive]

Yes, Chris, primarily, I'd say, funding the company's growth internally would be first and foremost. Certainly, we just did the dividend increase. But it's those kind of things -- I don't I don't think we see a buyback in the near term. And part of this is we're focused on growing our tangible value to continue to increase it.

[Christopher McGratty, analyst]

And in terms of traditional bank M&A versus a fee income deal, are you seeing -- I think if there's a deal this morning, are you seeing more opportunities to grow that way as well?

[Archie Brown, executive]

Yes, Chris, on the -- let's maybe talk about bank M&A first. Some conversations happening, early stages. I don't see anything in the near term that would come. But I think there's a little bit more interest in discussions just because of where we are in the cycle and I think, especially with some expectations that rates will start to come down and maybe we're approaching a soft landing. On the nonbank side, I don't really think we're pursuing any other acquisitions at this time.

[Christopher McGratty, analyst]

Okay. And then finally, could you just remind us your parameters when you look at it, even done one since the main [ source ] deal 5 or 6 years ago?

[Archie Brown, executive]

Well, I mean, they can change over time. I can certainly tell you deposit franchises are a lot more important today than they would have been several years ago. But we like end market, we like more density area markets, more metro kind of focus areas in our footprint or I would say, adjacent to our footprint.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Terry McEvoy with Stephens Inc.

[Terence McEvoy, analyst]

Maybe a quick question for you, just back on the margin, you said kind of sensitivity to deposit mix over the near term. Just wondering, what your thoughts are on the noninterest-bearing balances over the course of the year and maybe any early insight into the third quarter? And whether you fund the loan growth with higher-costing deposits?

[James Anderson, executive]

Yes. I think -- I mean, if you look at the chart in the deck in terms of deposit costs, I mean we really started to see that -- the pressure on deposit costs subside significantly in the last couple of months of the quarter. We saw maybe 2 or 3 basis points in those months. So we're really starting to see both the -- from a cost perspective and the momentum that we were seeing from a mix shift, both of those subside pretty significantly.

So we think we are at or near the bottom in terms of noninterest-bearing balances and especially the percentage of noninterest-bearing to total deposits, somewhere in that low -- we're projecting that those were going to drop somewhere in the low 20s, and we're at 22% now. So I think that we've hit the bottom there or close to it.

But going forward, yes, I mean, we are looking to -- and you can see in the outlook, our deposit for the back half of the year, our loan growth projections are softened from what we were seeing in the first half, which were relatively strong.

So we are looking to fund that growth going forward here, especially over the next 2, 3 quarters, from the deposit side and not the borrowing side, but understanding that some of that might be -- the mix of that might be a little bit on the higher cost side in CDs and money market accounts.

[Terence McEvoy, analyst]

Perfect. And as a follow-up, just the transportation sector keeps coming up this earnings season when discussing credit. Any comments on your transportation C&I portfolio? Or within Summit and whether you're seeing any stress there? Or just taking a step back, any segments within C&I, you're monitoring and keeping a close eye on?

[William Harrod, executive]

Yes. We are watching the transportation sector pretty closely as most of our -- most banks are just with some of the challenges that they've been facing. Heretofore, we haven't had any material issues. And overall, we feel pretty good about the book. But there is some stress, especially in some of the smaller and some of the larger trucking companies out there, but our closure is manageable.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Daniel Tamayo with Raymond James.

[Daniel Tamayo, analyst]

I know you talked a little bit about this, and I apologize if this question has been asked, [ I joined on late ]. But the loan growth guidance down, I heard you mention seasonally strong Agile in the second quarter. So I get that part of it. But anything else that's driving that? I mean, is it more of a normalization?

Just curious kind of, I guess, on the commercial side, how pipelines look, and how we should think about loan growth over the next several quarters? I know it's not the official guidance, but kind of if you take a step back and think about what opportunities for you might be over the next several quarters would be helpful.

[Archie Brown, executive]

Yes, Danny, this is Archie. We've had a couple of really strong quarters in loan growth, and it's been a combination of some decent production but also much lower than normal payoff activity, especially in our commercial real estate portfolio. So that's buoyed at some.

As we look forward, pipelines, I would say, softened some in the mid part of the second quarter. They seem to be strengthening back now. But that will create a little bit of building that back into production in the back half. So that's a piece.

We mentioned Agile. Well, their big part of the year is early to mid part. So that will flatten out for most of the back half of the year. And we are anticipating more payoffs of commercial real estate. We're -- we start to see some late in the quarter, we'll see more Q3, our Oak Street unit. We've got a few large payoffs that we're expecting to come in the back half of the year. So that payoff activity is just a little bit stronger combined with Agile.

And I would say on the CRE side, still, that production is a little bit lower than it has typically been. And you can imagine just the market with rates where they are, the market is a little softer. And we're probably a little bit more selective there in the current environment.

[Daniel Tamayo, analyst]

Okay. And then maybe on the expense side, you guys have done a really good job of managing expenses despite this good revenue growth and balance sheet growth.

I'm just curious, where you've been able to pull out the FTEs or identify cost savings opportunities in this environment? And just as you've been going through that, just curious, how that's been going, if you've had any issues or identified any kind of areas that you need to invest as you think about continued growth over the next few years?

[Archie Brown, executive]

Danny, we've talked a little bit about this in both quarters. So it's maybe a good question for us to talk a little bit more about it.

First, we view the good expense control and management as part of what we need to always be doing. But if you think about what's happened in recent years of the industry, but certainly us have invested heavily in great technologies and tools and we believe have created a significant amount of capacity in the system.

So we embarked, we did some -- late last year, some, I guess, I'd call them beta testing in an area or two to really do kind of -- we call it almost like desk-to-desk review of all our production areas and support areas. We started in a group or two kind of proof-of-concept on what we were trying to do, and we identified excess capacity that we could take out of the system.

And now we're going through a methodical review throughout the whole company. It's more been in the support areas at this point. But before we're done, which we hope will be through this work by the end of the year, we'll have touched all or most of the company. To date, we're about 35% to 40% through the work. And I'm not sure that the same numbers will hold up through the rest of the process because we'll get into some areas that we think don't have as much capacity.

But we're going to keep doing that work in each quarter as we go through it, we'll update certainly all of you and all of the other stakeholders on the progress that we're making.

[James Anderson, executive]

And Danny, just to jump in as well, this is Jamie. I mean what that has also allowed us to do is we were able to essentially absorb the expenses with Agile through that. And expense base didn't go up a lot and also use those savings to invest in other areas that will help us grow in the future. So [ it being ] office...

[Archie Brown, executive]

To Jamie's point, we have opened a couple of offices, commercial banking offices, added a few other salespeople in our wealth group and still been able to keep a lid on the expenses. Yes.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Jon Arfstrom with RBC.

[Jon Arfstrom, analyst]

On Chris McGratty's question about the margin coming down, if rates come down, can you talk about how you expect the fee businesses to perform if short rates come down? Do you think that will have any kind of impact on maybe some improvement there?

[Archie Brown, executive]

Jon, maybe slightly. We think Bannockburn has shown in multiple rate environment at this point that they can generate income with their clients. So we think they'll continue to perform effectively. Leasing volumes are strong. We'll continue to see the leasing income side grow, I think, in even a different rate environment, maybe even more.

And then on the mortgage side, it's really going to depend on probably what happens more in the 10-year part of the curve. But we would expect a little bit of an increase maybe on the mortgage side. If the markets hold up, wealth is going to continue. We've put a lot of investment in our wealth group, and we think they're going to continue to just incrementally make improvements as we go forward. So those are the big areas.

[Jon Arfstrom, analyst]

Okay. You touched on leasing. It's obviously been very strong. It feels like it's a little bit different than the commercial outlook. Can you just talk a little bit about the pipelines in leasing and what you're seeing there? Is it market activity or market share? Or what is it?

[Archie Brown, executive]

Well, they're on more of a national platform, and they've got sales people throughout the country and other connections of how they do business. So we do get a lens into maybe things more broadly. And banks are pretty healthy, especially in, I would say, larger companies. And they tend to do a lot of business with larger companies.

So pipelines are good. If anything, we're probably restraining the ability to originate there a little bit in the environment where we're focused more on funding.

We do also -- if you just look back last year, we've had a couple of year ends now with them. They will see their strongest amount of origination activity occurs in the back part of the year, especially in that fourth quarter. So that will pick up. That will -- I think we said low single-digit growth in the near term. Not sure what fourth quarter looks like, but they'll certainly have a strong fourth quarter.

[Jon Arfstrom, analyst]

Okay. Good. That helps. And then, Bill, can you just talk a little bit more about the downgrades, and we probably know what the themes are, but any themes? And then, should we expect the classified increases to continue for the next few quarters?

[William Harrod, executive]

Yes. So the downward credit migration in the classified bucket was driven by 2 multifamily and 2 C&I credits. The first multifamily deal is currently under an [ LOI ]. The other experience -- has experienced conversion and stabilization delays. The 2 C&I credits are both longtime customers, 20-plus years that are just navigating through some shifts in the respective markets. And we think there's reasonable solutions for all of them.

And as we look out, we do expect our cost size to remain stable. Looking at our special mention for the quarter, they were down a little flat. And so that's kind of what we're looking at, at this point, kind of stable.

[Operator]

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the call back over to the Archie Brown for some closing remarks.

[Archie Brown, executive]

I want to thank everybody for joining today and hearing our story for the quarter. We look forward to talking with you again next quarter. Have a great Friday, a great weekend. Bye now.

[Operator]

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect. Have a good day.