ETSY Inc
NASDAQ:ETSY
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one ETSY stock under the Base Case scenario is 56.03 USD. Compared to the current market price of 51.71 USD, ETSY Inc is Undervalued by 8%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
ETSY Inc
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Fundamental Analysis
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Etsy Inc. began its journey in 2005 as a vibrant online marketplace that connects millions of independent artisans and creators with buyers seeking unique, handcrafted, and vintage goods. Unlike traditional e-commerce platforms, Etsy's strength lies in its distinctive focus on creative, one-of-a-kind items, ranging from handmade jewelry and home décor to vintage collectibles. This unique positioning has enabled Etsy to cultivate a loyal and passionate community of both sellers and buyers, fostering an environment that celebrates individuality and creativity. As consumer demand for personalized products grows, Etsy has positioned itself as a leader in this niche market, providing sellers with...
Etsy Inc. began its journey in 2005 as a vibrant online marketplace that connects millions of independent artisans and creators with buyers seeking unique, handcrafted, and vintage goods. Unlike traditional e-commerce platforms, Etsy's strength lies in its distinctive focus on creative, one-of-a-kind items, ranging from handmade jewelry and home décor to vintage collectibles. This unique positioning has enabled Etsy to cultivate a loyal and passionate community of both sellers and buyers, fostering an environment that celebrates individuality and creativity. As consumer demand for personalized products grows, Etsy has positioned itself as a leader in this niche market, providing sellers with the tools and resources needed to thrive while delivering buyers access to exceptional products that are often unavailable elsewhere.
For investors, Etsy represents a compelling opportunity in the e-commerce space, especially as it continues to innovate and expand its offerings. The company's robust growth trajectory, marked by a steady increase in both revenue and active sellers, showcases its resilience and adaptability in a competitive landscape. With initiatives aimed at enhancing user experience, bolstering seller support, and integrating advanced technology like AI to refine search capabilities, Etsy is poised to capture an even larger share of the growing market for handmade and unique goods. Furthermore, its emphasis on sustainability and ethical sourcing aligns well with the evolving consumer preferences, making Etsy not just a marketplace, but a lifestyle brand. As such, Etsy's commitment to nurturing creativity and supporting small businesses not only fosters a thriving community but also lays a strong foundation for long-term investor confidence.
Etsy Inc. primarily operates as a global online marketplace focused on connecting individual sellers with consumers interested in unique, handmade, vintage items, and craft supplies. Its core business segments can generally be categorized into the following:
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Marketplace Revenue:
- This segment includes revenue generated from transaction fees charged to sellers for every sale made on the platform. It also encompasses listing fees for products that sellers post on the site. The marketplace showcases a variety of items, including handmade goods, vintage items, and craft supplies.
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Etsy Ads:
- This segment involves revenue generated through advertising services offered to sellers. Etsy provides a platform where sellers can promote their listings to increase visibility and drive sales. Sellers can opt for various advertising formats, which include paid placements in search results and display ads.
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Seller Services:
- This includes additional services provided to sellers, such as payment processing, shipping labels, and other tools that help improve the selling experience. Etsy has created various tools and services to support sellers with their operations, enhancing their ability to run successful shops.
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Etsy Pattern:
- This is a service that enables sellers to create their own independent websites, integrated with their Etsy shops. This allows sellers to build their brand and reach consumers outside the Etsy marketplace, while still utilizing Etsy’s infrastructure for transactions.
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Etsy Studio (Note: Etsy Studio has been shut down, but it was formerly a segment focused on craft supplies and materials):
- This segment was aimed specifically at the craft supply market, providing a platform for sellers to offer materials needed for various crafts. Its closure reflects Etsy's focus on strengthening its core marketplace for handmade and vintage goods.
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International Expansion:
- As part of its growth strategy, Etsy continues to expand into international markets, adapting its marketplace and services to meet local demands and preferences.
Etsy’s business model emphasizes a community-driven approach, enabling individual sellers to thrive in a niche market while providing consumers with unique products that cannot be found on mainstream retail platforms. The company also focuses on enhancing user experience and sustainable practices, further aligning with consumer trends and values.
Etsy Inc. possesses several unique competitive advantages that differentiate it from its rivals in the e-commerce space, particularly when it comes to handmade, vintage, and craft-related products. Here are some of the key competitive advantages:
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Niche Market Focus: Etsy is specifically tailored for artisans, crafters, and vintage sellers. This focus on handmade and unique products creates a strong brand identity and user community that appeals to buyers looking for one-of-a-kind items.
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Strong Community and Brand Loyalty: The platform fosters a strong sense of community among sellers and buyers, emphasizing the personal touch of handmade goods. This emotional connection enhances customer loyalty and encourages repeat purchasing.
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Seller Empowerment: Etsy provides various tools and resources for sellers, such as marketing, analytics, and production resources. This support can help sellers grow their businesses more effectively within the Etsy ecosystem.
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Established Marketplace: Etsy’s long-standing presence in the market gives it a significant first-mover advantage. Its established brand recognition helps to attract both buyers and sellers, making it a preferable platform for those seeking a dedicated e-commerce platform for unique goods.
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User Experience: Etsy’s platform is designed to enhance the shopping experience. Features like personalized recommendations, user-friendly navigation, and aesthetic website design make it appealing to consumers looking for inspiration and unique products.
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Sustainability and Ethical Focus: With a growing consumer trend towards sustainability, Etsy promotes handmade and vintage products that often emphasize ethical sourcing and production methods. This appeal to socially conscious consumers can give Etsy an edge over larger retail companies focusing on mass-produced goods.
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Global Reach with Local Feel: Etsy allows sellers from around the world to connect with buyers, creating a global marketplace while maintaining a local, artisanal feel. This flexibility can attract diverse sellers and a wide array of product offerings.
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Diversification of Product Categories: While Etsy is known for crafts and handmade goods, it continues to diversify its offerings, including digital downloads and craft supplies, broadening its appeal without losing its unique identity.
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Data-Driven Insights: As an established e-commerce platform, Etsy can leverage user data to enhance its marketing strategies and product offerings, enabling better targeting of both sellers and buyers.
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Cultural Relevance and Trend Adaptability: Etsy often emerges as a trendsetter in the handmade and crafting space. By staying attuned to cultural trends and consumer preferences, Etsy can adjust its strategies and offerings rapidly compared to more traditional retailers.
These competitive advantages help Etsy carve out a distinct position in the e-commerce landscape, making it a preferred platform for many consumers and sellers of unique and artisanal products.
Etsy Inc. faces several risks and challenges in the near future, given the evolving landscape of e-commerce, consumer behavior, and market competition. Here are some key areas of concern:
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Increased Competition: The online marketplace is highly competitive, with players like Amazon, eBay, and niche platforms emerging. Etsy must constantly differentiate itself to maintain its market position.
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Economic Factors: Economic downturns or fluctuations can significantly impact consumer spending. Given Etsy's focus on handcrafted and unique items, consumers may prioritize essential goods over discretionary spending during tough economic times.
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Supply Chain Disruptions: Global supply chain issues, whether due to geopolitical tensions, pandemics, or natural disasters, could impact sellers' ability to procure materials or deliver products, ultimately affecting Etsy's business.
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Regulatory Challenges: Changes in regulations related to e-commerce, such as taxation, data privacy, or consumer protection laws, can impose new operational burdens on Etsy and its sellers.
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Platform Dependency: Many of Etsy's sellers rely heavily on the platform for their income. Changes in Etsy's policies or algorithms could adversely affect seller visibility and sales, leading to dissatisfaction among sellers.
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Market Saturation: As more sellers join the platform, there could be an oversaturation in certain product categories, making it difficult for individual sellers to stand out and succeed.
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Changing Consumer Preferences: The shift toward sustainability and ethical consumerism may require Etsy to adapt its business practices and support for sellers that align with these values.
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Cybersecurity Threats: As an online platform, Etsy is vulnerable to data breaches and cybersecurity attacks, which could compromise user data and trust in the platform.
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Technological Adaptation: Keeping up with technological advancements and consumer expectations, such as mobile shopping and enhanced user experiences, is critical for sustaining growth.
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Global Expansion Risks: While expanding internationally can provide growth opportunities, it also comes with challenges such as cultural differences, local regulations, and currency fluctuations.
Addressing these risks will require strategic planning, investment in technology and marketing, and a strong focus on fostering a supportive community for sellers.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
ETSY Inc
Balance Sheet Decomposition
ETSY Inc
Current Assets | 1.3B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 1B |
Receivables | 181.2m |
Other Current Assets | 94.5m |
Non-Current Assets | 1.1B |
Long-Term Investments | 107m |
PP&E | 242.9m |
Intangibles | 582.6m |
Other Non-Current Assets | 189m |
Current Liabilities | 553m |
Accounts Payable | 19.6m |
Accrued Liabilities | 299m |
Other Current Liabilities | 234.4m |
Non-Current Liabilities | 2.5B |
Long-Term Debt | 2.4B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 131.5m |
Earnings Waterfall
ETSY Inc
Revenue
|
2.8B
USD
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Cost of Revenue
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-807m
USD
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Gross Profit
|
2B
USD
|
Operating Expenses
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-1.6B
USD
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Operating Income
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367.1m
USD
|
Other Expenses
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-110.5m
USD
|
Net Income
|
256.6m
USD
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
ETSY Inc
USD | |
Free Cash Flow | USD |
In Q3 2024, Etsy reported a consolidated Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) of $2.9 billion, down 4.1% year-over-year. Revenue increased 4.1% to $662 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 28%. Active buyers remained stable at 91 million. Q4 guidance predicts a low to mid-single-digit GMS decline. However, Etsy expects a take rate of 22.3%, enhancing margin expectations of 28-29%. Investments focused on elevating customer experiences are linked to improved engagement. The new seller setup fee aims to enhance listing quality and maintain margins. Despite economic pressures, Etsy’s focus on quality and unique offerings positions it strongly for future growth.
What is Earnings Call?
ETSY Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
ETSY Inc's profitability score is 48/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
ETSY Inc's profitability score is 48/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
ETSY Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
ETSY Inc's solvency score is 54/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
ETSY Inc's solvency score is 54/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
ETSY Price Targets Summary
ETSY Inc
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ETSY is 62.82 USD with a low forecast of 44.44 USD and a high forecast of 110.25 USD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for ETSY is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Ownership
ETSY Insider Trading
Buy and sell transactions by insiders
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Profile
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Description
Etsy, Inc. engages in the operation of online marketplace. The company is headquartered in Brooklyn, New York and currently employs 2,402 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2015-04-16. The firm operates through four segments: Etsy, Reverb, Depop, and Elo7. The Company’s primary marketplace, Etsy.com, is the global destination for goods made by independent sellers. Its Reverb is a two-sided marketplace on the principle that buying and selling musical instruments should be easy. The Company’s Depop is dedicated to building the diverse and progressive home of fashion. Its Elo7, known as the Etsy of Brazil, specializes in custom and made-to-order merchandise. Its Elo7 marketplace includes items in over 40 retail categories. Its services include on-site advertising services, which allow Etsy sellers to pay for placement of its listings in search results, and shipping labels, which allow Etsy sellers in the United States, Canada, United Kingdom, Australia, and India to purchase discounted shipping labels.
Officers
The intrinsic value of one ETSY stock under the Base Case scenario is 56.03 USD.
Compared to the current market price of 51.71 USD, ETSY Inc is Undervalued by 8%.