Duolingo Inc
NASDAQ:DUOL
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one DUOL stock under the Base Case scenario is 79.5 USD. Compared to the current market price of 351.97 USD, Duolingo Inc is Overvalued by 77%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
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Duolingo Inc
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Fundamental Analysis
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Duolingo Inc. is a pioneering force in the world of language learning, transforming the way millions of people acquire new languages through its innovative app. Launched in 2011 by co-founders Luis von Ahn and Severin Hacker, Duolingo leverages a gamified approach to education, making language acquisition engaging and accessible. With over 500 million downloads globally, the platform offers courses in more than 30 languages, enabling users from diverse backgrounds to connect and communicate. Its unique freemium model allows users to access essential learning materials for free while providing optional premium features to enhance their experience. This blend of accessibility and monetization...
Duolingo Inc. is a pioneering force in the world of language learning, transforming the way millions of people acquire new languages through its innovative app. Launched in 2011 by co-founders Luis von Ahn and Severin Hacker, Duolingo leverages a gamified approach to education, making language acquisition engaging and accessible. With over 500 million downloads globally, the platform offers courses in more than 30 languages, enabling users from diverse backgrounds to connect and communicate. Its unique freemium model allows users to access essential learning materials for free while providing optional premium features to enhance their experience. This blend of accessibility and monetization has positioned Duolingo as a frontrunner in the edtech sector, appealing to both casual learners and serious students.
For investors, Duolingo presents an attractive opportunity in a rapidly growing market. The company's revenue has seen significant growth due to its user-friendly design and effective monetization strategies, which include premium subscriptions and in-app purchases. Notably, Duolingo's commitment to leveraging data analytics and adaptive learning techniques allows it to continuously refine its offerings and improve user engagement. As the demand for language learning continues to rise amid globalization, Duolingo's strong brand recognition and innovative technologies could lead to sustained growth. With its ability to attract a broad user base and foster a loyal community, Duolingo stands out as a compelling choice for investors seeking to capitalize on the expansion of digital education.
Duolingo Inc. primarily operates in the educational technology sector, focusing on language learning. Its core business segments include:
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Language Learning: The main product of Duolingo is its language learning app, which offers a wide variety of languages. Users can engage with gamified lessons that focus on vocabulary, grammar, reading, writing, and speaking skills. This segment is driven by user subscriptions and engagement through its freemium model.
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Subscription Services: Duolingo offers a premium subscription service called Duolingo Plus. This subscription removes ads, offers offline access, and provides additional features like progress tracking and personalized coaching, thereby generating a significant portion of its revenue.
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Duolingo English Test: Another important segment is the Duolingo English Test, an online English proficiency exam that is increasingly recognized by educational institutions. This segment helps generate revenue and expands Duolingo's market presence, particularly in academic and professional settings.
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Duolingo for Schools: This segment caters to educators and institutions, providing tools that help teachers integrate language learning into their curricula. It offers an added layer of engagement and utility, promoting user retention and expanding to institutional clients.
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Advertising and Partnerships: While less prominent compared to its direct revenue mechanisms, Duolingo also generates income through advertising on its free app version and potential partnerships with educational organizations.
Overall, Duolingo's business strategy encompasses user engagement, retention through premium services, and diversification into testing and educational partnerships, aligning with its mission to make education accessible and enjoyable for users globally.
Duolingo Inc. holds several unique competitive advantages over its rivals in the language learning industry:
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Freemium Model: Duolingo offers a robust free version of its app, making language learning accessible to a broad audience. This model attracts millions of users, some of whom later convert to the paid subscription, Duolingo Plus, for ad-free experiences and additional features.
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Engaging and Gamified Learning Experience: The app incorporates game-like elements such as rewards, leaderboards, and levels, which enhance user engagement and motivation. This gamification helps in maintaining user interest over time, setting Duolingo apart from more traditional learning methods.
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Data-Driven Approach: Duolingo leverages extensive data analytics to refine its content and adapt to individual learning styles. Their algorithms continually analyze user interactions to optimize lessons for effectiveness, ensuring that learning paths are both efficient and engaging.
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Diverse Language Offering: Duolingo provides a wide array of languages, including less commonly taught ones. This variety attracts a global user base and satisfies niche language learners that many competitors overlook.
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Strong Brand Recognition: Duolingo's playful branding and recognizable mascot, Duo the owl, have helped the company build a strong brand identity, making it synonymous with language learning. This recognition enhances customer loyalty and attracts new users.
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Community and User Engagement: Duolingo fosters a community through forums and discussion boards, encouraging users to share tips and experiences. This sense of community can enhance user loyalty and provide a support network for learners.
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Continuous Innovation: The company continually updates and adds features, such as podcasts, stories, and language tests. This adaptability allows Duolingo to meet evolving market needs and user preferences more rapidly than competitors.
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Flexible Learning Formats: With both app and web-based offerings, Duolingo caters to various learning preferences and contexts. This flexibility allows users to learn on-the-go or at home, accommodating busy lifestyles.
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Certificates and Assessments: Duolingo offers a language proficiency test (Duolingo English Test) that is accepted by various universities and institutions worldwide. This functional aspect provides additional value to users looking to certify their language skills.
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Social Responsibility: By offering free education to millions globally, Duolingo aligns itself with socially responsible initiatives, which can enhance its reputation and attract users who value corporate social responsibility.
These advantages help Duolingo maintain a leading position in the competitive language learning market, allowing it to grow its user base and enhance monetization opportunities.
Duolingo Inc., like many tech companies operating in the education sector, faces several risks and challenges in the near future. Here are some key areas to consider:
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Competition:
- Increased Competition: The language learning space is becoming crowded, with many new and existing players entering the market. Companies like Rosetta Stone, Babbel, and even free options such as Memrise pose significant competition.
- Market Saturation: As more players enter the space, Duolingo may face challenges in differentiating its offerings and maintaining its market share.
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User Engagement and Retention:
- Churn Rates: Maintaining user engagement and preventing churn can be challenging, especially if users find the app less engaging over time or don’t feel they are progressing.
- Content Relevance: Continually updating and enhancing educational content to meet user needs and preferences is crucial for retention.
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Monetization Strategies:
- Ad revenue dependency: If users turn to ad-free subscription models, Duolingo must ensure that its premium subscription offerings are compelling enough to convert free users.
- Balance between free and paid services: Finding the right balance in value offerings is essential. If too much is given away for free, it may hamper subscription growth.
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Technological Challenges:
- Platform Reliability: Ensuring the app runs smoothly without technical glitches is vital to user satisfaction. Any significant downtime or bugs could impact the user experience.
- Data Privacy and Security: With increased scrutiny on data privacy, Duolingo needs to ensure robust data protection measures are in place to protect user information.
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Economic Factors:
- Economic Sensitivity: Economic downturns may lead users to cut discretionary spending, impacting premium subscription growth.
- Global Market Fluctuations: International operations expose Duolingo to currency fluctuations and geopolitical risks that could affect revenues.
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Regulatory Challenges:
- Compliance: Navigating various education and data privacy regulations in different countries can be complex and may pose compliance risks.
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Shifts in Learning Preferences:
- Changing Educational Landscape: The rise in alternative learning modalities (e.g., conversational practice, community-based learning) might pressurize traditional app-based learning methods.
- Technological Advancement: The emergence of AI, VR, and other immersive technology-driven learning experiences could shift user preferences away from app-based modalities.
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Social and Cultural Factors:
- Cultural Relevance: The need for content that resonates with diverse cultural demographics is critical. Failure to address cultural nuances might limit the app’s appeal in certain markets.
Addressing these challenges effectively will require Duolingo to continue innovating, enhancing user experience, and adapting to market dynamics while maintaining its strong brand identity in the language-learning space.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Duolingo Inc
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Duolingo Inc
Current Assets | 1.1B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 880.8m |
Receivables | 94.2m |
Other Current Assets | 83.5m |
Non-Current Assets | 161.1m |
Long-Term Investments | 55.3m |
PP&E | 68.1m |
Intangibles | 32.4m |
Other Non-Current Assets | 5.2m |
Current Liabilities | 342.1m |
Accounts Payable | 3.6m |
Accrued Liabilities | 27.8m |
Other Current Liabilities | 310.6m |
Non-Current Liabilities | 55m |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 55m |
Earnings Waterfall
Duolingo Inc
Revenue
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689.5m
USD
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Cost of Revenue
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-185.3m
USD
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Gross Profit
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504.2m
USD
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Operating Expenses
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-449.9m
USD
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Operating Income
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54.2m
USD
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Other Expenses
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32.5m
USD
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Net Income
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86.8m
USD
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Free Cash Flow Analysis
Duolingo Inc
USD | |
Free Cash Flow | USD |
Duolingo's third quarter showcased impressive growth, with daily active users up 54% year-over-year. The company reported a 38% increase in bookings and a 40% rise in revenue, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 24.7%. The highly anticipated Duolingo Max, featuring an AI-powered Video Call, has been rolled out to 50% of users, expected to grow to 60-70% by year-end. The company raised its full-year guidance, projecting 36% bookings growth and 40% revenue growth. However, a slight decline in gross margin is anticipated due to costs associated with generative AI. Looking ahead, the adjusted EBITDA margin target for 2024 is set at 25.5%.
What is Earnings Call?
DUOL Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Duolingo Inc's profitability score is 52/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Duolingo Inc's profitability score is 52/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
DUOL Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Duolingo Inc's solvency score is 76/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Duolingo Inc's solvency score is 76/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
DUOL Price Targets Summary
Duolingo Inc
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DUOL is 333.78 USD with a low forecast of 202.27 USD and a high forecast of 428.4 USD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for DUOL is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Ownership
DUOL Insider Trading
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Profile
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Description
Duolingo, Inc. is a language-learning website and mobile application, which engages in the development of a free language learning website and crowd sourced text translation platform. The company is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania and currently employs 500 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2021-07-28. The firm's platform enables users to learn languages online. Duolingo offers approximately 97 courses in 40 languages, and is available on International Organization for Standardization (iOS), Android, and Web at www.duolingo.com. The firm's products include Duolingo for Schools, Duolingo English Test, Duolingo ABC, Duolingo Events, Duolingo podcasts, stories and dictionaries. Duolingo for Schools is a free web-based tool that makes it easier for teachers to use its platform in a structured learning environment. Duolingo English Test is an online English proficiency assessment. Duolingo ABC is a free application that teaches literacy skills to children's ageing three to six. Duolingo Events are online gatherings that bring together language learners from around the world for fun.
Contact
IPO
Employees
Officers
The intrinsic value of one DUOL stock under the Base Case scenario is 79.5 USD.
Compared to the current market price of 351.97 USD, Duolingo Inc is Overvalued by 77%.