CME Group Inc
NASDAQ:CME
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one CME stock under the Base Case scenario is 140.55 USD. Compared to the current market price of 229.04 USD, CME Group Inc is Overvalued by 39%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
CME Group Inc
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Fundamental Analysis
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CME Group Inc. stands as a pivotal player in the global financial landscape, serving as the largest options and futures exchange in the world. Founded in 1898, the company began its journey as a modest market for agricultural commodities and has since transformed into a sophisticated trading hub that spans a vast array of asset classes, including interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, energy, and agricultural products. With a commitment to innovation, CME Group has embraced advanced technology to enhance trading efficiency and transparency, offering a suite of risk management solutions that cater to a diverse clientele ranging from institutional investors to individual traders. Th...
CME Group Inc. stands as a pivotal player in the global financial landscape, serving as the largest options and futures exchange in the world. Founded in 1898, the company began its journey as a modest market for agricultural commodities and has since transformed into a sophisticated trading hub that spans a vast array of asset classes, including interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, energy, and agricultural products. With a commitment to innovation, CME Group has embraced advanced technology to enhance trading efficiency and transparency, offering a suite of risk management solutions that cater to a diverse clientele ranging from institutional investors to individual traders. This adaptability and forward-thinking strategy have positioned CME Group as a leader in enabling price discovery and risk transfer in today's complex financial markets.
For investors, CME Group represents not just a trading venue but a gateway to the dynamic world of derivatives. The company's strong financial standing, bolstered by a robust revenue model primarily derived from transaction fees and clearing services, underscores its resilience in varying market conditions. Additionally, CME Group's extensive global reach is complemented by strategic partnerships and investments in cutting-edge technology, allowing it to continually expand its offerings and capture new market opportunities. The company's commitment to regulatory compliance and risk management further instills confidence, making it an attractive prospect for investors seeking exposure to the growing world of financial derivatives. In essence, CME Group is not only a cornerstone of modern finance but also a promising investment that aligns well with the principles of value investing.
CME Group Inc. operates a diverse range of financial markets and offers various products that cater to different segments of the trading community. The core business segments of CME Group Inc. can be described as follows:
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Interest Rate Products: This segment includes futures and options contracts based on interest rates, including the most traded futures contracts like the 10-Year Treasury Note and Eurodollar contracts. These products are primarily utilized by institutions and investors for hedging against fluctuations in interest rates or speculating on interest rate movements.
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Equity Index Products: CME provides a variety of futures and options based on major equity indices, such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, and Russell 2000. These products allow investors to gain exposure to the performance of these indices and are popular among traders and portfolio managers.
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Foreign Exchange (FX) Products: This segment includes futures and options contracts on various currency pairs, enabling participants to hedge against or speculate on foreign exchange rates. CME’s FX products attract a broad range of traders, including banks, asset managers, and corporations needing to manage currency risk.
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Commodity Products: CME Group offers a wide array of futures and options on various physical commodities including agricultural products (such as corn, soybeans, and wheat), energy products (like crude oil and natural gas), and metals (like gold and silver). These products are fundamental for producers, consumers, and traders within the commodity markets.
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Environmental Products: This segment provides trading in products related to environmental markets, including carbon emissions and renewable energy credits. As sustainability becomes a focus for investors and policymakers, these products are gaining significance.
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Alternative Investment Products: CME Group has also developed and offered products catering to alternative investments like cryptocurrency futures and options, allowing traders to access this new asset class.
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Market Data and Services: CME offers market data, analytics, and clearing services, which play a fundamental role in enhancing the trading experience. These services cater to traders, institutional clients, and other market participants.
CME Group Inc. effectively combines these segments to meet the various needs of market participants, providing essential tools for risk management, speculation, and investment across a diverse set of asset classes.
CME Group Inc., as one of the largest derivatives exchanges in the world, holds several unique competitive advantages that set it apart from its rivals:
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Diversified Product Offering: CME Group offers a wide range of products across various asset classes, including commodities, financial instruments, interest rates, foreign exchange, and equity indexes. This diversity attracts a broad range of participants and provides the ability to cross-sell products.
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Liquidity: CME Group benefits from high liquidity levels due to its large participant base, which includes institutional investors, hedge funds, and retail traders. High liquidity ensures tighter spreads and lower trading costs, making it an attractive platform for trading.
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Technology and Innovation: The CME has invested heavily in technology to improve trading efficiency and execution. Its electronic trading platforms, particularly Globex, allow for rapid trade execution and access to a global marketplace, giving it an edge over competitors that may be slower to adopt such technologies.
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Global Reach: CME Group operates on a global scale, with clients and operations worldwide. This international presence allows it to tap into various markets and attract a diverse client base, providing a competitive edge in terms of market access.
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Strong Brand Recognition: As a well-established player in the derivatives market, CME Group has significant brand recognition and trust among market participants, which can lead to increased trading volumes and customer loyalty.
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Regulatory Compliance and Governance: CME Group maintains strong regulatory compliance, which enhances its reputation and attracts institutional clients looking for reliable and well-governed trading platforms. Its experience in navigating complex regulatory environments is a significant asset.
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Risk Management Tools: CME Group offers sophisticated risk management products and services, appealing to participants looking to hedge their exposures. This capability is crucial for institutional investors and businesses that require effective strategies to manage risk.
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Economies of Scale: As one of the largest exchanges, CME Group benefits from economies of scale in operations, allowing it to lower the costs of trading while maintaining robust infrastructure and services.
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Strategic Partnerships and Acquisitions: CME Group has engaged in strategic partnerships and acquisitions to expand its market presence and enhance its product offerings, further solidifying its competitive position.
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Educational Resources: CME Group provides extensive educational resources and tools for traders and investors, which can help attract new participants to the market and increase overall trading activity.
These competitive advantages enable CME Group Inc. to maintain its leading position in the derivatives market and effectively compete against both traditional exchanges and emerging fintech platforms.
CME Group Inc., as a leading global derivatives marketplace, faces several risks and challenges that could impact its operations and profitability in the near future. Here are some key considerations:
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Market Volatility: Fluctuations in market conditions can lead to reduced trading volumes. High volatility can attract more traders, but prolonged periods of low volatility may result in decreased activity and revenue.
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Regulatory Changes: As a significant player in the financial markets, CME is subject to extensive regulation by authorities such as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Changes in regulatory frameworks can impose additional compliance costs and operational limitations.
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Technological Risks: The rapid evolution of technology poses both opportunities and threats. While advancements can improve efficiency and product offerings, they also require continuous investment and can lead to cybersecurity threats and competition from fintech firms.
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Competition: CME Group faces competition from other exchanges and trading platforms, including new entrants leveraging technology for better pricing, liquidity, and customer service. Maintaining a competitive edge is crucial for preserving market share.
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Economic Downturns: Broader economic issues, such as recession risks, can lead to reduced trading activity and lower volumes in futures and options markets, consequently affecting revenues.
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Interest Rate Environment: Changes in interest rates can affect the trading behavior of participants and the costs associated with financing positions. A rise in rates can also impact the attractiveness of certain products.
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Operational Risks: Operational challenges, including system outages, errors in trade matching, and failures in risk management practices, can lead to financial losses and damage to reputation.
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Geopolitical Risks: International trade tensions, political instability, and global economic conditions can significantly affect market sentiment and trading volumes across various asset classes.
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Product Diversification: While CME has a wide range of products, the success of new offerings is not guaranteed. If new products do not gain traction, it could lead to underutilization of resources.
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Environmental and Social Governance (ESG) Factors: Increasing focus on ESG principles may influence trading behaviors and investment strategies. CME may need to adapt to these changing expectations to attract a broader range of participants.
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Liquidity Risks: In times of market stress, the liquidity of certain products can diminish, potentially making it difficult for traders to execute orders without a significant market impact.
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Reputation Risks: Any incidents related to market manipulation, fraud, or failure to manage conflicts of interest can have a lasting impact on CME’s reputation and lead to a loss of client trust.
CME Group must navigate these risks while leveraging its strengths in technology, scale, and market expertise to maintain its leadership position in the derivatives marketplace. Robust risk management, continuous innovation, and strategic planning will be key to addressing these challenges effectively.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
CME Group Inc
Balance Sheet Decomposition
CME Group Inc
Current Assets | 103.1B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 2.4B |
Receivables | 629.4m |
Other Current Assets | 100.1B |
Non-Current Assets | 34.7B |
PP&E | 684.1m |
Intangibles | 30.6B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 3.4B |
Current Liabilities | 100.8B |
Accounts Payable | 129.9m |
Accrued Liabilities | 46.8m |
Other Current Liabilities | 100.6B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 8.8B |
Long-Term Debt | 2.7B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 6B |
Earnings Waterfall
CME Group Inc
Revenue
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10.3B
USD
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Operating Expenses
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-2.2B
USD
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Operating Income
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8.1B
USD
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Other Expenses
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-4.6B
USD
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Net Income
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3.4B
USD
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Free Cash Flow Analysis
CME Group Inc
USD | |
Free Cash Flow | USD |
CME Group achieved record quarterly revenue of nearly $1.6 billion, a notable 18% increase from the previous quarter. Net income also surged to $977 million, reflecting a 19% year-over-year rise. Key drivers included a 27% uptick in average daily trading volumes, especially in interest rate products, which grew 36%. The company saw a significant international boost, with EMEA volumes rising 30% and APAC by 28%. Adjusted operating margins reached 69.1%, up 260 basis points from last year. Looking ahead, the company has lowered its effective tax rate guidance to 22.5%-23% due to strong financial performance.
What is Earnings Call?
CME Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
CME Group Inc's profitability score is 59/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
CME Group Inc's profitability score is 59/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
CME Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
CME Group Inc's solvency score is 62/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
CME Group Inc's solvency score is 62/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
CME Price Targets Summary
CME Group Inc
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CME is 240.65 USD with a low forecast of 182.81 USD and a high forecast of 288.75 USD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for CME is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Ownership
CME Insider Trading
Buy and sell transactions by insiders
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Profile
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Description
CME Group, Inc. operates a derivatives marketplace, which offers a range of futures and options products for risk management. The company is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois and currently employs 3,480 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2002-12-06. The firm offers a range of products across interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange (FX), agricultural commodities, energy and metals. The company also offers cash and repo fixed income trading through BrokerTec, and cash and OTC FX trading through electronic broking services (EBS). The Company’s segment consists of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. (CME), Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. (CBOT), New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX), Commodity Exchange, Inc. (COMEX) and its cash markets business. In addition, it operates central counterparty clearinghouses. The firm offers clearing, settlement and guarantees for all products cleared through the clearinghouse. Its subsidiaries include Astley & Pearce Limited, Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc., BrokerTec Americas LLC, BrokerTec Europe Limited and BrokerTec Holdings Inc.
Contact
IPO
Employees
Officers
The intrinsic value of one CME stock under the Base Case scenario is 140.55 USD.
Compared to the current market price of 229.04 USD, CME Group Inc is Overvalued by 39%.