Chord Energy Corp

NASDAQ:CHRD

Earnings Call Transcript 2021-Q2

[Operator]

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Oasis Second Quarter Earnings Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please also note today's event is being recorded.

At this time, I would like to turn the conference call over to Michael Lou, CFO. Sir, Please go ahead.

[Michael Lou, executive]

Thank you, Jamie. Good morning, everyone. Today we are reporting our second quarter 2021 financial and operational results. We're delighted to have you on our call. I'm joined today by Danny Brown, Taylor Reid as well as other members of the team.

Please be advised that our remarks on both Oasis Petroleum and Oasis Petroleum Partners, including the answers to your questions, include statements that we believe to be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to be materially different from those currently disclosed in our earnings releases and conference calls. Those risks include, among others, matters that we have described in our earnings releases as well as in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our annual report on Form 10-K and our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements.

During this conference call, we will make reference to non-GAAP measures and reconciliations to the applicable GAAP measures can be found in our earnings releases and on our website. We may also reference our current investor presentation, which you can find on our website.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Danny.

[Daniel Brown, executive]

Thank you, Michael. Good morning to all and thanks for joining our call. We sincerely appreciate your interest today. Before I get started, I'd also like to thank the entire Oasis team for their continued hard work and dedication to our organization. I've got to know the company and our people better over the past few months, and I couldn't be more impressed. I know we've all been very busy executing on our operational and strategic objectives, and you should all be very proud of what we've accomplished. We are in a great position to succeed going forward.

So turning back to our call, since I joined Oasis in mid-April, I've had the opportunity to reacquaint myself with many of you in the investment community. I've enjoyed our conversations and want to emphasize that your feedback is valued, and it's been influential in how we thought about setting strategy, priorities and plans. I look forward to continuing the dialogue.

Now before I hand it over to Taylor to discuss our operational highlights, let me give a few high-level thoughts. First, Oasis delivered another solid quarter with volumes exceeding expectations and costs below plan. Even with all the strategic activity we announced during the second quarter, our second half plan is essentially unchanged other than the great news that our full year capital is expected to be below our original expectations. Also during the quarter, the company determined it is eligible under Section 382 of the internal revenue code to use its net operating loss position to offset taxable income in 2021 and beyond. Michael will spend more time discussing this later in the call, but the main takeaway is we expect significant cash tax savings versus our prior expectations.

Second, we closed the Permian divestiture at the end of June and expect our Williston acquisition that we announced in May to close sometime late in the third quarter. While this is a little later than we originally modeled, the delay is just due to scheduling challenges early in the approval process. All parties are aligned, we don't see any issues with the close, and the purchase price will be adjusted downward with the cash flow generated by the asset since the effective date.

Third, we continue to adhere to our strategic objectives that we think differentiate the Oasis story and are beneficial to all stakeholders. Because I spoke about these at length last quarter, and there are significant details included in our IR material, I'll keep my comments brief.

So in summary, we are focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet, returns on and of capital, alignment with management and shareholders, ESG leadership, effective risk management and enhancing the value of our assets. And speaking of ESG, we've mentioned before that Oasis is dedicated to producing a cleaner, low-cost barrel, while being engaged with local communities and conscious of stakeholder interest. Importantly, we are also committed to providing increased transparency on our efforts.

And to that end, I'm pleased to announce that we have completed our first sustainability report. We expect to have a formal press release soon and the report will be available on our website. I would encourage everyone to read through it as it does a really nice job presenting Oasis' core values, our history of being a responsible corporate citizen and different initiatives we have in place to improve our performance going forward. While Oasis has always been dedicated to environmental, social and governance issues, we aim to be more proactive in providing disclosure around these topics going forward.

I also wanted to touch briefly on our midstream ownership in light of the strategic actions we've taken year-to-date. Oasis remains differentiated versus many of our peers, given the large ownership in our midstream company, Oasis Midstream Partners. In March, Oasis took the important step of simplifying our midstream ownership, which was accretive to both Oasis and OMP, increased transparency of our midstream ownership and strengthened Oasis' balance sheet. Following the simplification transaction, in June we sold down approximately 3.6 million units and declared a special dividend of $4 per share to Oasis shareholders. Our midstream ownership is now represented by our holding of approximately 33.8 million OMP units. Importantly, we continue to evaluate additional actions we can take to unlock what we see as tract value for the Oasis shareholder.

Finally, we have some new slides in our investor deck that highlight our inventory and capital plan through 2025. I'll ask Taylor to speak in more detail on these items, but at a high level, I want to emphasize the strength of our inventory position, which supports a low reinvestment rate and a compelling amount of free cash flow for years to come.

As we evaluate possible uses for this free cash flow, we will continue to take shareholder-friendly approaches. So far this year, you've seen Oasis institute our first fixed dividend and announced our intention to increase it 33% upon closing the Williston acquisition. Additionally, we paid the special dividend mentioned above and instituted a share repurchase program and we'll continue to be active on that front, provided we see a disconnect between share price and intrinsic value.

So with that, I'm going to turn it over to Taylor to give some operational color. Taylor?

[Taylor Reid, executive]

Thanks, Danny. Oasis saw a strong performance across volumes, capital and operating cost. In the second quarter, we completed '18 gross wells with 11 in the Williston and 7 in the Delaware. Our focus on cost reductions, well design and operating efficiencies has resulted in strong base and capital performance and sustainable free cash flow for years to come.

On the well cost side, we have made tremendous progress over the past couple of years. In the Bakken, we have recently seen wells in the low $6 million range, down about 20% from early 2020. While we've seen inflationary pressure in select areas such as steel, we've been finding offsets in other areas which has kept overall well cost in check. For example, during the second quarter, we had record frac efficiencies in Wild Basin, where we set a record for pump time in a day. On steel, as a reminder, we have locked in pricing for most of the remainder of the year. Overall costs are trending below budget, which allowed us to cut our capital expenditure guidance by 7% for 2021.

Let me touch on our recent Williston acquisition. During the second quarter, the operator brought on 4 new wells on the disco pad in the Fort Berthold area. Results were strong and validate our view of over top 40 top tier locations of similar quality across the acquired assets. We expect the acquisition to close late in the third quarter. As a reminder, our third quarter volume guidance does not include any acquisition volumes. We plan to let the acquired assets decline in the second half of the year and into early 2022 before stabilizing overall company volumes at maintenance capital levels. Our fourth quarter average production guidance of 76,000 barrels equivalent per day includes a full quarter of the acquisition.

I would like to reiterate our excitement with this accretive acquisition. We continue to be focused on the communities in which we operate and will dedicate the resources for the new assets that we operate in a sustainable manner. We are especially excited about establishing operations on the Fort Berthold Indian reservation and look forward to working with the 3 affiliated tribes. We recently received tribal approvals and are now working with the Bureau of Indian Affairs to complete the approval process and expect to close by the end of the third quarter. Our operations group has been engaged with the various teams on the new assets and we look forward to integrating the properties, and we'll welcome our new employees later this year.

We are currently running 1 rig and expect to complete between 11 and 13 wells in the back half of the year, most of which will come online in October. This sets us up for a strong fourth quarter average of 76,000 equivalents per day. As we look to 2022, we would expect a similar volume trajectory as compared to 2021, with production expected to decline from the fourth quarter into the beginning of the year before increasing in the second half of the year as we step up completions. Full year average production for 2022 is expected to approximate 72,000 equivalents per day, about 2/3 oil with E&P capital of about $300 million. As a reminder, we will be picking up our second rig in South Indian Hills in the fourth quarter and plan to keep it running along with the first rig for all of 2022.

I would like to pivot now to a discussion of our inventory. We've expanded our disclosure in our investor presentation to better illuminate the quality of our assets and a free cash flow generation at the assets and our organization can support on a sustained basis. We've identified approximately 670 locations that support strong returns at oil prices below $50 per barrel and most of that's substantially below that number. Of these locations, about 140 are 3-mile laterals and our team is working on increasing that number over time. In 2022, the current plan calls for approximately $300 million in E&P CapEx to support volume levels of about 72,000 equivalents per day. We expect to generate approximately $250 million to $300 million of after-tax free cash flow in 2022 at $55 oil and $2.75 gas, including the impact of our current hedge book. Using current prices, free cash flow would be substantially higher.

In terms of specific projects, we'll finish up drilling Wild Basin, South Nesson and North Indian Hills, in 2022 and see the program in 2023 and beyond will include a substantial contribution from Painted Woods, South Indian Hills, the city of Williston, Alger, the Fort Berthold Indian reservation and Hebron. Economics are strong across the program with the average well in our roughly 670 locations delivering IRR of 46% at $55 and $2.75.

As you can see on Slide 14, our decline rates have become quite shallow relative to recent history. And given that our program is fairly modest, we expect the PDP decline profiles to remain relatively flat. This is important as low declines support free cash generation and the capital intensity to keep volumes flat is much lower than when volumes were growing quickly. Also as I noted earlier, our well costs have come down substantially over the past few years. Some of the decrease relate to service cost concessions while others are more structural in nature, resulting from high efficiencies and cycle times, improved well design and savings gained from our intense focus on cost structure across our business this year.

Well spacing has increased as well. We are now planning 5 to 6 wells per DSU versus 8 to 10 in recent years. The wider spacing has improved capital efficiency and should result in shallower declines over the life of a well. Additionally, approximately 20% of our 670 well inventories are expected to be 3-mile laterals. For our near-term program over the next 4 years, that number increases to 40%. The basin has seen a steady increase in 3-mile laterals over the past several years and there are extensive analogs to evaluate as we engineer our program. The improved results are compelling as the 3-mile lateral allows for an approximate 50% increase in oil EUR with only 25% more capital. Our blocky acreage position works well for respacing from 2- to 3-mile laterals and should yield increasing number of opportunities to add more of these to the inventory as we move forward.

To close, operationally we executed well in the second quarter. Our legacy asset base is performing well and we're on track to close the Williston acquisition in the third quarter. The team has done a tremendous job across the board, leading to impressive performance and project inventory, project returns and free cash generation, all of which allow us to return significant cash back to our shareholders.

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Michael to discuss some financial highlights.

[Michael Lou, executive]

Thanks, Taylor. As Taylor mentioned, we're expecting to close the Williston acquisition at the end of the third quarter. We provided a third quarter guidance update, which excludes any impact from the acquisition, while fourth quarter guidance includes a full quarter of performance from the acquired assets. Operationally, guidance implies volumes are in line with what we expected in May, while cost and dips are a bit better, and capital spending is less than expected.

As a reminder, the effective date of the transaction was April 1, so the purchase consideration will be reduced by free cash flow generated from the asset from April 1 through closing. Additionally, in the second quarter, Oasis put down a deposit of approximately $75 million with the original purchase price of $745 million. As of June 30, Oasis has approximately $779 million in cash and $400 million of debt outstanding related to the high-yield offering in May. Currently, Oasis has 0 drawn under the borrowing base with elected commitments of $450 million. And upon closing of the acquisition, our borrowing base is expected to increase to $650 million with our elected commitment staying at $450 million.

Oasis continued to do a good job managing LOE and minimizing downtime. E&P LOE averaged $10.21 per BOE for the second quarter, below the low-end of our guidance, and we expect per unit LOE to decrease into the back half of the year as volumes increase. E&P cash G&A expense was $11 million, including a $3 million of expected, but nonrecurring items. E&P cash G&A per BOE guidance for the fourth quarter of '21 remains unchanged.

Both crude and gas realizations were strong in the quarter as our marketing team continues to do a fabulous job. Oil realizations were particularly strong as market conditions were quite tight in the quarter. E&P CapEx was approximately $52.4 million in the second quarter, below expectations. As Taylor noted, we had record frac efficiency during the quarter. The remainder of the difference versus guidance can be explained by timing, higher partner interest in Oasis wells and other items. We lowered our full year capital spending guidance by 7%. The reduction in CapEx expectations is unrelated to acquisition closure timing.

On the volume side, Oasis remains on track to meet the fourth quarter volume guidance outlined in May, which includes our first full quarter of the acquired asset base. During the quarter, we determined that Oasis qualifies for an exception to the limitation on its NOL carryforwards under IRC Section 382, which reduces our cash taxes to 0 in the second quarter and for the full year of 2021, a savings of over $50 million versus our original guidance. By year-end '21, Oasis estimates an NOL balance ranging from $400 million to $500 million, which could be used to reduce the company's future income tax obligations.

Additionally, we implemented a tax benefits preservation plan, which is designed to protect the availability of our NOLs and other tax attributes. This plan will go away upon the earlier of 3 years or when the NOL is used. And we will also be putting this up for a shareholder vote at our next shareholder meeting.

Also during the second quarter, Oasis sold down approximately 3.6 million OMP units for $24 per unit. This transaction is not expected to be taxable given the NOLs I just discussed. Proceeds from the unit sale were used to fund a $4 special dividend paid in July '21. Separately, Oasis declared its second quarter dividend of $0.375 per share, the third fixed dividend we've declared this year. Upon closing of our Williston acquisition, the company continues to expect to raise its normal fixed quarterly dividend from $0.375 to $0.50 per share per quarter or a 33% increase. Additionally, our $100 million share repurchase program remains in place. We've repurchased $14.6 million of common stock to date.

In closing, we look forward -- as we look forward, the business is in an enviable position to generate substantial and sustainable free cash flow for the foreseeable future and will continue to take a balanced approach to investing capital and returning cash to shareholders. I'd also like to thank the team for its hard work on the operating side as well as the significant progress on the key corporate strategic objectives.

With that, I'll hand the call back over to Jamie for questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Our first question today comes from Scott Hanold from RBC Capital Markets.

[Scott Hanold, analyst]

I think I want to start out, maybe, Taylor, you obviously talked a little bit about the shape of activity into next year. And obviously it sounds like you're thinking about obviously letting the acquired assets decline a little bit before you reinvest it. So as we kind of think about big picture Oasis together, you're adding the second rig, and I would assume all those rigs are going to be on legacy Oasis assets. So is the structural shape of this, you're going to kind of dip down one in maybe in the first quarter, second quarter and then kind of bounce above that 72 average for the year? Is that sort of the right way to think about sort of the shape? And how many well completions does that contemplate?

[Michael Lou, executive]

Good question. Adding the second rig in October just because of cycle times is naturally going to push those completions out a bit into 2022. Same because of the -- we're going to be entering South Nesson and start drilling there. We're in Indian Hills right now. We're going to start fracking those in October as well. So the South Nesson is going to start-up about when the new rig comes in and starts drilling at South Indian Hills. So both of those end up getting push in terms of completions, kind of 2Q like you talked about. So we'll dip into first Q, probably a bit into 2Q and then rebound from there.

And then in terms of overall well completions, it's kind of -- I don't know, timing, kind of 40 or so completions, could be a little above that, but obviously a pickup from what we did this year just based on that increased activity. And with that, we -- as you said, we'll let the QEP assets come down a bit. We're going from 76,000 equivalents a day fourth quarter of this year with the combined assets and then we'll level off more around 72,000 next year.

[Scott Hanold, analyst]

And just to clarify, those 40-plus completions, those are all in legacy Oasis properties. Is that right?

[Michael Lou, executive]

Correct. Yes.

[Scott Hanold, analyst]

And then I guess my next question is a little bit on how you think about like shareholder return strategies going forward? Obviously, you guys have used a pretty good portfolio of things and you've been pretty assertive about giving money back in different forms. And where does things like variable dividends play into the equation? Is that something that's also a consideration? Or at this point in time, do you all feel comfortable with kind of continuing to increase the fixed dividend in using the buybacks and maybe opportunistic special dividends?

[Daniel Brown, executive]

This is Danny. So I think sort of our guiding principle on these things is really going to be around creating value for shareholders. So that's -- at the end of the day, that's what we're trying to accomplish. But we recognize that returning cash is a big component of that. So hopefully, our actions to date where we've done that in several different forms are sort of demonstrate our commitment to that concept.

I think we are all -- we'll be balanced in our approach. You've seen us sort of taken all of the above approach so far with a fixed, with a special, with a share repurchase program. We're discussing the possibility of how would a variable dividend, should we want to do that, how would that look? And so we'll continue to think through all these different concepts. But at the end of the day, what's going to guide our action is how do we create the most value for our shareholders.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Derrick Whitfield from Stifel.

[Derrick Whitfield, analyst]

With my first question, I wanted to focus on the tax ruling. And more specifically, does the ruling change your strategic view on how best to crystallize value that is inherent in your portfolio, but really not reflected in your stock price today?

[Michael Lou, executive]

Yes, Derrick, it's a great question. Look, there's a lot of work that was done around kind of the tax ruling and how we think about that. Obviously, with the sale of the Permian asset, it created a large tax loss for us as well. So that's kind of an update from the beginning of the year. There -- with kind of the higher oil prices, the simplification work, along with the OMP unit sale, we had over $200 million of kind of taxable income this year that with this election, we can actually shield, which is fantastic. It's about over $50 million of cash taxes that we'll save this year. And on top of that, we'll continue to hold a large NOL position going forward in that $400 million to $500 million range. And as you mentioned, that's a considerable asset that can be used in shielding kind of future taxable transactions, whether it's additional monetizations of assets or just with strong kind of pricing and cash flow coming back to the company, taxable income from that perspective. So it's a great position to be in for the company to continue to drive higher free cash flow. And as Danny mentioned, kind of gives us a lot of decisions to make in terms of returning that capital to shareholders in the best way to create shareholder value.

[Derrick Whitfield, analyst]

Makes sense. And perhaps for my follow-up, I'll focus the question with Taylor. Referencing the Painted Woods case study on Page 15, I wanted to see if you could offer any commentary on how this area with 3-mile laterals competes in your portfolio when you plan to pursue the first 3-mile lateral well. And if you think there's an opportunity to improve the well performance beyond the analog set that you evaluated?

[Taylor Reid, executive]

Yes. So Derrick, good question. As you look across, I'd say, Painted Woods and then really, in general the whole set of inventory, especially as we look forward over this next 4-year plan that we've been talking about, some important factors here. One, up spacing. We went from 8 to 10 wells to 5 to 6 wells, and that's improving capital efficiencies per well EURs. Talked a lot about being able to bring down capital costs, so nice capital efficiency improvements. And then along with that, the decline profiles, we expect to be shallower as these wells produce over time. So all those things help the overall profile.

In terms of when we drill the first 3-mile laterals, we're actually going to drill 8 wells later this year in South Indian Hills. And then the first 3-mile wells in Painted Woods will happen next year. And we -- those will be preferentially done as we move into the Painted Woods position. And just for note, over 40% of our wells in Painted Woods, it's close to 45, will be 3-mile laterals. And when you look at the program over the next 4 years, about 40% of that are all 3-mile laterals. So nice increase in economics. You're only spending about a 25% increase in capital, but seeing up to a 50% uplift in reserves. And so really nice increase in economics in doing those projects.

[Operator]

And our next question is a follow-up from Scott Hanold from RBC Capital Markets.

[Scott Hanold, analyst]

I'm just kind of curious if you could elaborate a little bit more on how you think about OMP going forward. You guys have done a pretty good job of really simplifying that in a quick manner, but I think there's probably more work to be done, but can you give us your thoughts on the various options available for you all? And is there a time frame you guys are targeting at kind of bringing that to fruition to get it to the final kind of position you wanted in?

[Daniel Brown, executive]

This is Danny. I appreciate the question, Scott. I think when we look at Oasis shares and how we trade, we continue to see as some of the parts discount in the Oasis shares. And so we are evaluating, as you know, our options on how do we go about illuminating that value for the Oasis shareholder. I'd say we're doing that with haste, we're doing that with diligence, and I would expect that we have more share on this in the near future. I think whatever path we decide to go down, it's going to impact our timing a little bit. And so I don't want to commit to specific timing on it, but do know that we're actively looking at that internally and expect to share more with you in the future.

[Scott Hanold, analyst]

Is ultimately the goal to effectively find a way to deconsolidate? Is it to -- is that the plan? And so would you be willing to still own some of OMP in some structure as long as you're able to deconsolidate? Is that sort of the end goal?

[Daniel Brown, executive]

I think deconsolidation is a -- I don't know if I would say deconsolidation is the end goal. The end goal is to make sure there's read through value or the Oasis shareholder on the value we've got within OMP. And so we think one of the steps toward that is likely deconsolidation where we don't sort of confuse the issue with those holdings for our share base. So I think that's part of it, but not necessarily the end goal, this end goal is really about getting the value seen by the Oasis shareholder.

[Scott Hanold, analyst]

Okay. Understood. And also another question, too, operationally, you guys have obviously identified the greater inventory, certainly at a price that's kind of closer to where commodities are right now. In your development plan over the next few years, are those incremental locations in what I'm referring to is the difference between what you guys evaluate at $40 versus the $60 or $65? Are any of those in the inventory? Or is that one of those things more for demonstration purposes of that -- of the size of the assets holistically?

[Daniel Brown, executive]

So really, as you look at the inventory in this plan period, it's the same set of inventory we're talking about previously. And so we were focused early on in a much lower price environment, talking about a $45 deck and what's economic at that level. And just as a reminder, that included Wild Basin, South Nesson, Indian Hills, Fort Berthold, City Williston, Painted Woods and North Alger. So the incremental inventory to get to the 670 million that we were talking about, currently, very -- we're here being at $70 oil with outlook. And let's go from 45 to 55 and talk about this robust set of inventory. And the additions there were Painted Woods West, Montana, Red Bank in Dublin, a bit of our Fort Berthold to the South and East and then South Cottonwood and robust economics in those areas. Same -- we really did the same things as what we did in the other area is up spaced, really have pushed capital cost down and then an emphasis on 3-mile laterals, a big chunk of those. And so we're not going to get to those projects until you get 4, 5 years out. But I just thought it was important to highlight those and let people know, look, we've got a super resilient set of inventory that goes out 12 years at the pace of drilling we'll be doing next year.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Phillips Johnston from Capital One.

[Phillips Johnston, analyst]

Just one question for me. It's really just a follow-up on Scott's earlier question regarding return of capital. So if we run $45 oil and $2.50 gas, kind of held flat forever in our model, we show the leverage ratio remains well below half a turn sort of indefinitely in the free cash flow yield would still be somewhere sort of in the 5% to 10% range over the next several years. You guys have been fairly aggressive so far about returning cash to shareholders. But my question is given that backdrop. Is there any reason you wouldn't gravitate towards a more formalized fixed plus variable dividend policy or take an even more aggressive approach around share buybacks? I guess my question is, do you guys see any drawbacks or downside in either of those options that might give you guys pause?

[Daniel Brown, executive]

Phillips, this is Danny. I think as we think about return of capital -- again I appreciate the comments. And we have been pretty forward-leaning in this and tried to make sure that we've sort of attacked this from multiple different fronts. We're continuing to discuss that, both as a management group and with our Board on what does -- how do we best structure a return of capital program, what role might variable dividends play within such a framework. And so I would say that our thoughts around this are ongoing. We are -- the guiding principle, though, is really about creating the most value we can for shareholders. And again, we think returning capital is a big component of that, and we're continuing to -- we believe that firmly, and we're going to continue to evaluate those programs and on our actions around this as our thoughts develop.

[Operator]

And ladies and gentlemen, at this time we'll end today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to management for any closing remarks.

[Michael Lou, executive]

Thanks, Jamie, and thanks, everyone, for your time today. I'm proud of the accomplishments we've made this year, but continue to believe the enterprise is undervalued, and we're going to be working hard to drive our strategic initiatives and operational performance for the benefit of our shareholders. Simultaneously, as you will see in our sustainability report, we intend to remain true to our values and continue to operate responsibly for the benefit of all of our stakeholders. Thank you very much for joining our call.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, with that we will conclude today's conference. We do thank you for attending. You may now disconnect your lines.