Confluent Inc
NASDAQ:CFLT
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one CFLT stock under the Base Case scenario is 15.14 USD. Compared to the current market price of 31.52 USD, Confluent Inc is Overvalued by 52%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
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Confluent Inc
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Fundamental Analysis
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Confluent Inc., founded in 2014 by the creators of Apache Kafka, has emerged as a leader in the realm of real-time data streaming and event-driven architecture, fundamentally transforming how businesses harness their data. Designed to streamline data flow across various systems, Confluent's platform enables organizations to manage, store, and process vast amounts of data in real-time, facilitating timely decision-making and enhancing operational efficiency. With an impressive array of use cases—from improving customer experiences to optimizing supply chain logistics—Confluent empowers companies to become more agile and responsive in a fast-paced digital landscape. The rapid surge in demand f...
Confluent Inc., founded in 2014 by the creators of Apache Kafka, has emerged as a leader in the realm of real-time data streaming and event-driven architecture, fundamentally transforming how businesses harness their data. Designed to streamline data flow across various systems, Confluent's platform enables organizations to manage, store, and process vast amounts of data in real-time, facilitating timely decision-making and enhancing operational efficiency. With an impressive array of use cases—from improving customer experiences to optimizing supply chain logistics—Confluent empowers companies to become more agile and responsive in a fast-paced digital landscape. The rapid surge in demand for data-driven applications has once again highlighted the importance of reliable, scalable data infrastructure, positioning Confluent as a pivotal player in this space.
For investors, Confluent represents an attractive opportunity amid increasing global emphasis on data integration and real-time analytics. The company has established a robust subscription model, contributing significantly to its recurring revenue, while continuously expanding its customer base across diverse industries—from finance and retail to technology and healthcare. With a sophisticated offering complemented by strong partnerships, including alliances with major cloud providers, Confluent is not just keeping pace but is actively shaping the future of how businesses operate with data. As organizations increasingly recognize the necessity of real-time insights to navigate competitive landscapes, Confluent stands at the forefront, promising a compelling growth trajectory in an era dominated by data-driven decision-making.
Confluent Inc. operates primarily in the data streaming space, providing a platform built around Apache Kafka, which is an open-source stream processing platform. The company focuses on various core business segments that can be summarized as follows:
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Confluent Platform:
- This is the primary offering of Confluent, providing a complete event streaming platform derived from Apache Kafka. It includes tools for real-time data integration, processing, and monitoring. It allows enterprises to collect, process, and analyze data in real-time across various environments (on-premises, cloud, hybrid).
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Confluent Cloud:
- Confluent Cloud is a fully managed service that provides Kafka as a service. It allows organizations to use Kafka without needing to manage the infrastructure themselves. This service is offered across major cloud providers, making it easy for businesses to scale their streaming applications without heavy operational burdens.
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Data Integration:
- Confluent also provides tools for data integration, allowing businesses to connect existing data sources and sinks to their event streaming solutions. This segment supports various connectors for databases, cloud services, and other platforms, enabling seamless data movement.
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Stream Processing:
- This segment includes capabilities for processing streams of data as they arrive in real-time. Confluent offers technologies like KSQL (Kafka SQL) that allow users to write SQL queries against their streaming data, facilitating real-time analytics and transformation.
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Enterprise Solutions:
- Confluent offers solutions tailored for enterprise needs, including governance, security, and compliance features. These products are designed to help large organizations implement data streaming while adhering to strict regulatory requirements.
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Support and Consulting Services:
- To help customers implement and optimize their usage of Confluent's technologies, the company provides consulting services, training, and customer support. This segment is critical for ensuring customer success and maximizing the value derived from their data streaming initiatives.
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Community and Ecosystem Support:
- Confluent actively supports the open-source community around Kafka, contributing to its development and fostering an ecosystem of developers and users. This engagement helps drive innovation and adoption of their technology.
Together, these segments position Confluent as a leader in the data streaming market, enabling organizations to leverage real-time data for better decision-making and improved operational efficiency.
Confluent Inc., the company behind the popular event streaming platform built on Apache Kafka, possesses several unique competitive advantages over its rivals in the data streaming and real-time analytics space:
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Native Kafka Expertise: Confluent was founded by the creators of Apache Kafka. This deep expertise in Kafka not only enhances their product offerings but also positions them as leaders in the open-source Kafka ecosystem, providing a distinct advantage in terms of credibility and innovation.
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Comprehensive Platform: Confluent offers a fully managed service with Confluent Cloud, allowing users to leverage Kafka without the operational overhead of managing infrastructure. This full suite of services simplifies deployment for enterprises looking to implement event-driven architectures.
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Strong Ecosystem and Integrations: Confluent integrates seamlessly with numerous tools and technologies across the data stack, such as databases, cloud services, and analytics platforms. This extensive ecosystem allows organizations to easily adopt and integrate Confluent into their existing infrastructures.
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Advanced Features: Confluent provides additional features beyond standard Kafka, such as Schema Registry, Kafka Connect, and ksqlDB (for stream processing using SQL-like syntax). These enhancements add significant value for users and differentiate Confluent from basic Kafka implementations.
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Enterprise-level Support and Security: Confluent caters to enterprise needs with robust security features, compliance options, and dedicated support. This positioning can attract larger organizations concerned about security and reliability.
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Focus on Real-time Data Use Cases: While many competitors may focus on batch processing or traditional data management, Confluent's strong orientation towards real-time data streaming addresses the growing demand for instant data insights and actions, particularly in sectors like finance, e-commerce, and IoT.
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Strong Community and Open-source Commitment: By actively contributing to the open-source community and leading the development of Kafka, Confluent builds loyalty and trust among developers and organizations, fostering a robust community around its offerings.
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Established Customer Base: Confluent has secured a broad array of enterprise customers across various industries, giving them valuable case studies and testimonials that reinforce their market positioning and reliability.
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Educational Resources and Thought Leadership: Confluent invests in educating the market about event streaming and Kafka through webinars, documentation, and workshops, which not only builds brand loyalty but also aids in the adoption of its technology.
These competitive advantages position Confluent Inc. favorably in the rapidly evolving landscape of data streaming services, enabling it to stay ahead of emerging rivals and maintain a robust growth trajectory.
Confluent Inc., a company specializing in stream processing and real-time data solutions, faces several potential risks and challenges in the near future:
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Competitive Landscape: The market for event streaming and data integration is increasingly competitive, with established players like Amazon Web Services (AWS), Google Cloud, and Microsoft Azure intensifying competition. New entrants could also disrupt the market with innovative solutions.
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Market Demand Fluctuations: As businesses continue to adjust their digital transformation strategies, the demand for streaming technologies may fluctuate. Economic downturns or shifts in technology priorities could impact customer budgets and spending.
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Dependency on Open Source: Confluent heavily relies on Apache Kafka, an open-source project. While this has advantages, it also means that competitors can offer similar solutions without licensing costs, potentially eroding Confluent's competitive edge.
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Customer Dependency: A significant portion of revenue may come from a limited number of large customers. Losing any major client or facing reduced spending from these clients could adversely impact revenue.
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Regulatory Compliance: As data privacy regulations like GDPR and CCPA become stricter, businesses must adapt their data practices, which can create challenges for Confluent’s customers and, consequently, for the company itself.
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Technological Evolution: Rapid changes in technology and data processing paradigms might necessitate continuous innovation. Staying ahead of industry trends and customer needs is vital for long-term success.
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Integration Complexity: As enterprises adopt hybrid and multi-cloud strategies, the complexity of integrating Confluent’s solutions into diverse IT environments may pose challenges and lead to potential customer dissatisfaction.
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Talent Acquisition and Retention: The technology sector is competitive regarding talent. Difficulty in attracting and retaining skilled professionals, particularly in engineering and data science roles, could hinder Confluent’s growth prospects.
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Market Perception and Valuation: As a publicly traded company, Confluent's stock performance is susceptible to market perceptions. Negative sentiment or market volatility could affect its stock valuation and investor confidence.
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Operational Risks: As the company scales, it will need to ensure that its operations, including support and customer success, can effectively handle the increased demand without compromising service quality.
Addressing these risks requires strategic planning, robust risk management practices, and continuous innovation to maintain a competitive advantage.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Confluent Inc
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Confluent Inc
Current Assets | 2.3B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 1.9B |
Receivables | 278.7m |
Other Current Assets | 128m |
Non-Current Assets | 341.8m |
PP&E | 83.1m |
Intangibles | 173.1m |
Other Non-Current Assets | 85.6m |
Current Liabilities | 535m |
Accounts Payable | 15.5m |
Accrued Liabilities | 126.1m |
Other Current Liabilities | 393.3m |
Non-Current Liabilities | 1.1B |
Long-Term Debt | 1.1B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 47.6m |
Earnings Waterfall
Confluent Inc
Revenue
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915.6m
USD
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Cost of Revenue
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-247m
USD
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Gross Profit
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668.6m
USD
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Operating Expenses
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-1.1B
USD
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Operating Income
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-398m
USD
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Other Expenses
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46.9m
USD
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Net Income
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-351.1m
USD
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Free Cash Flow Analysis
Confluent Inc
USD | |
Free Cash Flow | USD |
In Q3, Confluent reported a significant 25% revenue increase, hitting $250 million, with subscription revenue rising 27% to $240 million, surpassing guidance. Confluent Cloud revenue surged 42% to $130 million. Notably, gross margins reached 79%, and operating margins expanded to 6.3%. The company serves major clients like the top U.S. banks. Looking ahead, Confluent raised its Q4 subscription revenue guidance to $245-$246 million (21% growth) and expects full-year 2024 subscription revenue between $916.5-$917.5 million (26% growth). This solid performance reflects stable demand from digital natives shifting focus from cost-cutting to new use cases.
What is Earnings Call?
CFLT Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Confluent Inc's profitability score is 30/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Confluent Inc's profitability score is 30/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
CFLT Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Confluent Inc's solvency score is 54/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Confluent Inc's solvency score is 54/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
CFLT Price Targets Summary
Confluent Inc
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CFLT is 32.16 USD with a low forecast of 25.25 USD and a high forecast of 42 USD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for CFLT is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Ownership
CFLT Insider Trading
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Profile
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Description
Confluent, Inc. designs and develops a real-time data platform for organizations. The company is headquartered in Mountain View, California and currently employs 1,981 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2021-06-24. The firm is focused on data in motion for developers and enterprises. The company enables enterprises to deliver customer experiences for their business functions, departments, teams, applications, and data stores to have connectivity. The company is designed to have real-time data from multiple sources streamed across an enterprise for real-time analysis. The company enables organizations to deploy production-ready applications that run across cloud infrastructures and data centers, and scale, with features for security and compliance. Its platform provides the capabilities to fill the structural, operational, and engineering gaps that are required for businesses. The company enables software developers to build their applications to connect data in motion and enable enterprises to make data in motion to everything they do.
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The intrinsic value of one CFLT stock under the Base Case scenario is 15.14 USD.
Compared to the current market price of 31.52 USD, Confluent Inc is Overvalued by 52%.