Aspen Technology Inc
NASDAQ:AZPN
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one AZPN stock under the Base Case scenario is 126.79 USD. Compared to the current market price of 241.28 USD, Aspen Technology Inc is Overvalued by 47%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
Aspen Technology Inc
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Fundamental Analysis
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Aspen Technology Inc., commonly known as AspenTech, is a leading software company that specializes in optimizing asset performance in manufacturing and industrial sectors. Founded in 1981 and headquartered in Burlington, Massachusetts, AspenTech provides innovative solutions that enhance productivity and efficiency in complex processes, such as those found in oil and gas, chemicals, and power generation. The company’s flagship product, Aspen Plus, along with a suite of advanced analytics and machine learning tools, empowers companies to streamline operations, reduce costs, and minimize environmental impact. With a focus on sustainability and digital transformation, AspenTech is compellingly...
Aspen Technology Inc., commonly known as AspenTech, is a leading software company that specializes in optimizing asset performance in manufacturing and industrial sectors. Founded in 1981 and headquartered in Burlington, Massachusetts, AspenTech provides innovative solutions that enhance productivity and efficiency in complex processes, such as those found in oil and gas, chemicals, and power generation. The company’s flagship product, Aspen Plus, along with a suite of advanced analytics and machine learning tools, empowers companies to streamline operations, reduce costs, and minimize environmental impact. With a focus on sustainability and digital transformation, AspenTech is compellingly positioned at the intersection of technology and the global push for more resource-efficient practices.
Investors looking at AspenTech should note the company’s strong financial performance and strategic investments in research and development, which drive its competitive edge. AspenTech has consistently demonstrated robust revenue growth and healthy profit margins, primarily due to its subscription-based business model that ensures recurring revenue streams. As industries increasingly shift towards automation and data-driven decision-making, AspenTech’s solutions are essential for companies aiming to stay ahead in a rapidly evolving marketplace. With a sound management team and a growing market for industrial software, AspenTech represents an attractive opportunity for investors seeking to capitalize on the ongoing digital transformation in industrial sectors while contributing to sustainable operational practices.
Aspen Technology, Inc. (often referred to as AspenTech) is a leading provider of software and solutions for optimizing asset performance, particularly in the process industries. The core business segments of AspenTech can be broadly categorized as follows:
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Process Optimization: This segment focuses on providing software solutions that help companies improve the efficiency of their operations. This includes tools for process design, simulation, and optimization that enable organizations in industries like oil and gas, chemicals, and utilities to maximize production effectiveness and minimize costs.
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Asset Performance Management: AspenTech offers solutions aimed at monitoring and enhancing the performance of physical assets. This includes predictive maintenance, reliability engineering, and condition monitoring, which help organizations reduce downtime and extend equipment life.
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Supply Chain Management: This segment provides tools for improving logistics, inventory management, and overall supply chain efficiency. AspenTech’s solutions assist organizations in forecasting demand, managing supply chain disruptions, and ensuring timely delivery of products.
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Environmental and Sustainability Solutions: AspenTech provides software that helps organizations achieve sustainability objectives. This includes emissions management, energy management, and other tools that assist companies in minimizing their environmental impact while optimizing their operational efficiency.
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Advanced Process Control and Optimization: This involves software technologies that leverage algorithms and models to improve control of manufacturing processes. The goal is to enhance product quality, reduce variability, and increase throughput.
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Data Analytics and AI Solutions: AspenTech integrates advanced data analytics, machine learning, and artificial intelligence into its offerings. This enables companies to leverage their data for better decision-making, operational efficiencies, and strategic planning.
These segments are often interconnected, enabling AspenTech to provide comprehensive solutions that address the complex challenges faced by its clients in the process industries. The company’s focus on innovation and technological advancement supports its leadership position in the market.
Aspen Technology Inc. (AspenTech) operates in the software industry, particularly focusing on solutions for process industries such as oil and gas, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals. Here are some unique competitive advantages that AspenTech holds over its rivals:
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Industry-Specific Solutions: AspenTech offers highly specialized software solutions tailored for process industries. Its deep understanding of the unique challenges faced by these sectors allows it to provide more relevant and effective tools compared to more generalized software competitors.
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Advanced Analytics and AI Capabilities: The company leverages sophisticated analytics, machine learning, and AI technologies to enhance its software offerings. These capabilities enable customers to optimize processes, reduce costs, and improve decision-making through better predictive models and real-time data analysis.
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Comprehensive Product Suite: AspenTech provides an integrated suite of software products, including supply chain, production, and asset management solutions. This comprehensive offering allows customers to streamline operations and enhances the value proposition by addressing multiple needs from a single provider.
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Strong Customer Relationships: The company has developed long-term relationships with major players in various industries. This loyalty not only reflects the effectiveness of their solutions but also provides a stable revenue stream and the opportunity for recurring business through upgrades and support services.
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Robust Research and Development (R&D): AspenTech invests heavily in R&D, allowing it to stay at the forefront of technological advancements in process optimization. This focus enables the company to innovate continuously and enhance its product offerings, maintaining a technological edge over competitors.
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Proven Track Record: With a long history and a solid reputation in the industry, AspenTech has established itself as a trusted partner for many companies. This reputation for reliability and performance can be a significant barrier for new entrants or smaller competitors trying to gain market share.
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Global Presence and Scale: AspenTech operates on a global scale, which allows it to serve multinational customers effectively. Its scale can lead to cost efficiencies and the ability to invest in larger projects or partnerships that smaller competitors may not be able to undertake.
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Emphasis on Sustainability: As industries increasingly focus on sustainability and operational efficiencies, AspenTech's solutions are increasingly positioned to help clients reduce their environmental impact. This strategic alignment with global sustainability trends provides additional competitive leverage.
By leveraging these unique competitive advantages, AspenTech can differentiate itself from competitors and maintain its leadership position in the market.
Aspen Technology Inc., known for its software solutions that optimize asset performance and improve operational efficiency in industries such as chemicals, oil and gas, and pharmaceuticals, faces several risks and challenges in the near future, including:
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Market Competition: The software market for industrial optimization is highly competitive, with numerous players offering similar solutions. New entrants and advancements from competitors may challenge AspenTech's market share and pricing power.
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Technological Advancements: Rapid technological changes could make it necessary for AspenTech to continuously innovate and upgrade its software offerings. Failure to keep up with trends like AI, machine learning, and cloud computing can result in a loss of competitive advantage.
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Customer Adoption and Retention: While AspenTech has established clients, the need for continuous engagement and adaptation to clients’ evolving needs poses a challenge. If customers perceive a lack of value or cannot keep up with upgrades, they may switch to alternatives.
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Global Economic Fluctuations: Economic downturns can result in reduced capital expenditures in the industries AspenTech serves. Events such as recessions, geopolitical instability, or changes in energy prices can adversely affect client budgets and spending.
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Data Security and Privacy Concerns: As AspenTech relies on cloud computing and data analysis, there are inherent risks related to data breaches and compliance with regulations such as GDPR. A significant data breach could damage the company’s reputation and lead to financial losses.
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Integration Challenges: Clients may face difficulties integrating AspenTech’s solutions with their existing systems. This can lead to increased implementation times and costs, potentially discouraging new clients.
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Regulatory Changes: Changes in industry regulations, particularly in sectors like energy and chemicals, can impact how AspenTech's software must perform or report. Regulatory compliance requirements may increase development costs or necessitate additional features.
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Dependency on Key Clients: If a significant portion of AspenTech's revenue comes from a small number of clients, any loss of these clients or significant reduction in their purchasing could adversely impact revenue.
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Talent Retention: The tech industry faces fierce competition for skilled talent, especially in fields like software development and data science. Difficulty attracting and retaining top talent could hinder innovation and operational efficiency.
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Mergers and Acquisitions: If competitors consolidate or acquire other organizations, they may significantly broaden their offerings and capabilities, potentially creating a more formidable challenge for AspenTech.
Addressing these risks requires proactive strategies, investment in R&D, customer feedback integration, and robust marketing strategies to differentiate itself in a crowded market.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Aspen Technology Inc
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Aspen Technology Inc
Current Assets | 709.3m |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 130.8m |
Receivables | 549.2m |
Other Current Assets | 29.3m |
Non-Current Assets | 13.5B |
PP&E | 113.8m |
Intangibles | 12.8B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 646.2m |
Current Liabilities | 372m |
Accounts Payable | 16.5m |
Accrued Liabilities | 73m |
Other Current Liabilities | 282.5m |
Non-Current Liabilities | 1B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 1B |
Earnings Waterfall
Aspen Technology Inc
Revenue
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1.1B
USD
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Cost of Revenue
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-382.3m
USD
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Gross Profit
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674.6m
USD
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Operating Expenses
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-856.6m
USD
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Operating Income
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-181.9m
USD
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Other Expenses
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95.6m
USD
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Net Income
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-86.3m
USD
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Free Cash Flow Analysis
Aspen Technology Inc
USD | |
Free Cash Flow | USD |
AZPN Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Aspen Technology Inc's profitability score is 58/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Aspen Technology Inc's profitability score is 58/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
AZPN Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Aspen Technology Inc's solvency score is 64/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Aspen Technology Inc's solvency score is 64/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
AZPN Price Targets Summary
Aspen Technology Inc
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AZPN is 247.31 USD with a low forecast of 219.17 USD and a high forecast of 278.25 USD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for AZPN is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Ownership
AZPN Insider Trading
Buy and sell transactions by insiders
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Profile
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Description
Aspen Technology, Inc. engages in the provision of asset optimization solutions. The company is headquartered in Bedford, Massachusetts and currently employs 1,897 full-time employees. The firm offers asset optimization software that optimizes asset design, operations, and maintenance in complex industrial environments. The Company’s segments include Subscription and Software, and Services and other. The subscription and software segment is engaged in the licensing of process optimization and asset performance management software solutions and associated support services. The services and other segment includes professional services and training. The firm's aspenONE solutions are organized into three suites: engineering; manufacturing and supply chain; and asset performance management (APM). Each product suite powers its artificial intelligence of things (AIoT) products as the foundation of industrial data. Its software applications are offered in three suites: aspenONE Engineering, aspenONE Manufacturing and Supply Chain, and aspenONE Asset Performance Management.
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Employees
Officers
The intrinsic value of one AZPN stock under the Base Case scenario is 126.79 USD.
Compared to the current market price of 241.28 USD, Aspen Technology Inc is Overvalued by 47%.