Astec Industries Inc

NASDAQ:ASTE

Earnings Call Analysis

Positive Outlook Amid Implied Order Growth

Astec ended the year on a hopeful note as implied orders surged by 27.6% in the last quarter after remaining stable during the previous three quarters. This uptick, although not a definitive trend, was taken as a sign of good things to come. The company's optimism for infrastructure solutions is supported by positive customer sentiment and projected double-digit growth in federal and state road construction projects for 2024. Additionally, a robust product backlog and the introduction of new offerings have reinforced the belief that Astec is poised for a solid performance in the forthcoming year.

A Mixed Bag in Sales Performance

Astec's total sales dipped by 3.6% to $337.2 million, impacted by a decline in Material Solutions which overshadowed a slight rise in Infrastructure Solutions. A modest domestic sales growth was negated by weaker international sales, especially in Europe, Australia, and Canada. The equipment sales downturn was somewhat balanced by a slight increase in parts sales. Despite the drop in sales, the company saw a considerable surge in adjusted earnings per share, jumping 164.7% to $0.90, up from the previous year's $0.34. A key factor behind this leap was successful pricing strategies coupled with manufacturing efficiencies, which expanded gross margins significantly.

EBITDA Demonstrates Strong Margins and Efficiency Gains

Astec's fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA climbed by 46.8% to $32.6 million, with margins increasing to 9.7%. This improvement stems from a combination of volume growth, pricing adjustments, and manufacturing efficiencies that helped counter the impacts of inflation and augment SG&A expenses. Infrastructure Solutions outshone with a 500 basis point increase in its adjusted EBITDA margin, whereas Material Solutions modestly improved its margins despite a drop in sales and faced challenges from lower volumes and increased personnel costs.

Annual Sales and Earnings Exhibit Growth Amidst Modest Setbacks

On an annual scale, Astec witnessed a 5% increase in sales, with notable gains in both Infrastructure and Material Solutions sectors due to stable demand and successful pricing alignments. Domestic sales outperformed international sales, which faced a slight decline. The company celebrated a remarkable growth in adjusted EBITDA by 55.4% and a corresponding margin expansion. Adjusted earnings per share also saw a significant growth rate of 117.1%, underscoring Astec's ability to expand margins and maintain market resilience.

Financial Strength Reflected in Capital and Shareholder Returns

Astec's financial health is evident in its strong cash position and operational cash flow, which improved tremendously over the previous year's cash usage. The company's liquidity slightly rose from the end of 2022, demonstrating fiscal discipline and a commitment to investing in growth while returning value to shareholders. The CapEx for the year was managed within expectations, and dividends totaling $11.8 million were distributed to shareholders, showcasing the company's dedication to balancing growth with rewarding its investors.

Looking Forward to 2024 with Determination to Enhance Performance

With the strong results achieved in the fourth quarter, Astec is confidently moving into 2024 with the determination to deliver even better outcomes. The company acknowledges that there are still areas to improve but believes that the foundation laid out in the past year will lead to enhanced performance for both customers and shareholders in the year ahead.

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q4

[Operator]

Hello, and welcome to the Astec Industries Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Call. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. It is my pleasure to introduce your host, Steve Anderson, Senior Vice President of Administration and Investor Relations. Mr. Anderson, you may begin.

[Stephen C. Anderson, executive]

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Joining me on today's call are Jaco van der Merwe, Chief Executive Officer; and Becky Weyenberg, Chief Financial Officer. In just a moment, I'll turn the call over to Jaco to provide comments, and then Becky will summarize our financial results. Before we begin, I'll remind you that our discussion this morning may contain forward-looking statements that relate to the future performance of the company, and these statements are intended to qualify for the safe harbor liability established by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. Any such statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Factors that can influence our results are highlighted in today's financial news release and others are contained in our filings with the SEC. As usual, we ask that you familiarize yourself with those factors. In an effort to provide investors with additional information regarding the company's results, the company refers to various U.S. GAAP, which are generally accepted accounting principles, and non-GAAP financial measures, which management believes provides useful information to investors. These non-GAAP financial measures have no standardized meaning prescribed by U.S. GAAP and therefore, are unlikely to be comparable to the calculation of similar measures for other companies. Management of the company does not intend these items to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the related GAAP measures. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP results is included in our news release in the appendix of our slide deck. All related earnings materials are posted on our website at www.astecindustries.com including our presentation, which is under the Investor Relations and Presentations tabs. And now, I'll turn the call over to Jaco.

[Jaco van der Merwe, executive]

Thank you, Steve. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. I will begin on Slide 4 with a review of our full year highlights. 2023 was an important year for Astec as we advance key strategic initiatives such as operational excellence, growing our parts business, new product development and Oracle ERP execution. These efforts enabled us to achieve great results in 2023 and will help us deliver more consistent, profitable growth in the future. I am very proud of what the team has been able to accomplish this year. In 2023, we had record full year sales as end market demand remained solid in both segments. We were particularly encouraged by the steady momentum we saw across the business at the end of the year, with Q4 implied orders growing 27.6% sequentially. I met with many customers at the recent World of Concrete and National Asphalt Pavement Association events and was encouraged by the positive sentiment. They remain busy and are using our equipment to complete their projects. Their optimism, combined with a positive turn in implied orders during Q4, increased funding from the federal highway bill and new product introductions give us confidence in the long-term demand outlook for our business. During Q4 2023, our team delivered improved profitability and expanded margins. This is a testament to the team's ability to execute efficiently and apply operational excellence practices. We expanded gross margins 400 basis points and adjusted EPS more than doubled for the full year. A priority for us in 2023 was to build a performance culture that consistently delivers financial results. Our full year results demonstrated that we have made great progress towards this objective. These achievements have laid the foundation for an even higher level of profitability as our business continues to grow. Our Oracle ERP implementation continues to move forward, as indicated by the 2023 milestones we achieved. We will continue to harness the capabilities of the enhanced new systems to drive efficient and effective operations. Lastly, we published our first corporate sustainability report in December. It was a tremendous team effort to get this project across the finish line. And I would like to acknowledge the hard work done by many individuals to complete this report. Guided by our core values of safety, devotion, integrity, respect and innovation, this report describes how we strive to do what is right for our customers, employees and the communities in which we operate. Our vision is to build industry-changing solutions that create life-changing opportunities. This inaugural report provides a foundation from which we can move forward with the goal of long-term sustainable growth. Turning to Slide 5. As demonstrated over the past few years, we have taken steps to simplify our business by eliminating waste and enhancing processes to improve productivity. We are focused on areas where we add the greatest value, bringing innovation to our customers and working with our dealers to develop best-in-class aftermarket practices. We plan to continue to grow organically and explore opportunities through a disciplined acquisition road map. Moving to Slide 6. After taking on the CEO role last year, one of the key priorities I established was for us to create and embrace a performance culture built on consistent execution. Reflecting on the last 12 months, I am pleased to see that we have made progress on this journey, as evidenced by our 2023 results and achievements. At the same time, we have identified significant additional opportunities to strengthen our business further and have built those into our long-term target goals. I would like to take a few minutes to highlight some notable achievements from the past year. We expanded gross margins by 400 basis points in 2023. We continue to invest to improve processes and deliver innovation, creating positive margin. We will continue these efforts in 2024. Additional investments will help us better serve growing markets and a slate of new products will enable us to provide solutions to customer needs. The second area we prioritized in 2023 was our dedication to our customers, dealers and shareholders. accomplishments here included the expansion of our distribution network and the launch of new products that enable dealers and customers to better serve our growing global market. We want to continue prioritizing these elements in 2024 through greater collaboration and increased availability of parts to better serve our customers. These actions to drive an enhanced product offering out to a broader customer audience will enable us to create consistent profitable growth. Promoting the One Astec operating model drives continuous improvement. The implementation of the Oracle ERP system is a great example as we have launched modules at corporate and 1 major manufacturing site in 2023. We have implementation plans for additional sites in 2024 and 2025. Operationally, we have made improvements in areas such as parts fill rates, which improved 20% in the past 2 years. We will make additional investments to further improve throughput velocity this year. One constant in our business is our steadfast focus on our core value of safety. This is very important to me and our team. I want our team to go home healthy and injury-free every day. Through continuous improvement, we have reduced our recordable injury rate to 1.27, the best in the company's recent history and very favorable when compared to the industry average. Our goal is zero harm, and we will continue to work to eliminate injuries across our sites. And finally, the Astec team will continue to unite around our long-term objectives and new vision statement, which is to build industry-changing solutions that create life-changing opportunities. We will work together to make Astec an even greater organization. Turning to Slide 7. I would like to offer some observations on the current business dynamics. While the macro environment remains uncertain, there are an increasing number of indicators that point to a stable demand environment with opportunities for growth. In our Infrastructure Solutions end markets, demand for Asphalt road building, and Concrete production is strong. Dealers need additional inventory, and we are working closely with our dealers to support a growing aftermarket opportunity by further improving the delivery of parts and service for our mobile equipment. For Materials Solutions, we saw signals from our annual dealer order writing event that heightened interest rate concerns may weigh on mobile crushing and screening equipment outlook in the near term. For the long term, however, demand trends look favorable due to domestic infrastructure spending and opportunities in international markets. In both groups, we are releasing new products to deliver innovation to our customer needs. Customers are busy, and they rely on us to help keep their projects moving forward efficiently. In addition to new product introductions, we are increasing our sales coverage by expanding our dealer network and deploying essence to our direct sales force to further penetrate markets. Funding from the Federal Highway bill continues to be deployed at a growing rate. Contract awards increased 8.6% in 2023, which is a positive leading indicator for future construction. Funding from federal legislation provides stability for our customers, driving future product and aftermarket demand. Next, I would like to update you on two of our new products shown on Slide 8. Both products were launched in 2023, and both have been met with positive reception from our customers. The Peterson 5710E Horizontal Grinder was launched in March. The number of units sold and rental margins for this product are in line with expectations, and we are on track with our unit forecast in 2024. The Roadtec RX-405 Cold Planer was launched in October and is off to a great start. New product launches are complex and require teamwork and dedication. I am pleased with the success of these and look forward to presenting more new products at the World of Asphalt trade show in Nashville on March 25th through 27th. Slide 9 shows that backlog continues to normalize from the peak levels experienced in 2022 that were primarily caused by customer actions to supply chain and logistics constraints. Over the past year, orders have returned to more historic patterns, and we have made progress in converting backlog to sales through investments in throughput and operational excellence initiatives. Implied orders shown on Slide 10, increased 27.6% sequentially in Q4, after holding steady through the first 3 quarters of 2023. While one data point does not make a trend, we were encouraged with the increase in orders. Customer sentiment for infrastructure solutions product is positive, while higher interest rates may temper demand for Material Solutions products in the near term. Industry data points to double-digit growth in federal and state road construction, which bode well for our industry in 2024. Combined with our new products and healthy backlog, I am becoming increasingly confident that 2024 will be a solid year for Astec. With that, I will now turn the call over to Becky to discuss our detailed fourth quarter and full year financial results.

[Rebecca Weyenberg, executive]

Thank you, Jaco, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin with a review of our fourth quarter 2023 results on Slide 12. Sales were $337.2 million, down 3.6% as a slight increase in Infrastructure Solutions was more than offset by Material Solutions decline. By region, domestic sales growth of $4.1 million was more than offset by softer international sales, which were down $16.8 million with particular weakness this quarter in Europe, Australia and Canada. Parts sales grew 2%, which was offset by a decline of 6.9% in equipment sales. Adjusted EBITDA increased 46.8%, increasing adjusted EBITDA margins by 340 basis points. The biggest driver was pricing realization and tailwinds for manufacturing efficiencies. We expanded gross margins by 610 basis points to 26.4%. Full year gross margins were 24.7%. Increased SG&A costs were driven by higher planned personnel-related costs and increased consulting and project costs. Overall, we are pleased with the progress and improvements we're making on margins. Adjusted earnings per share increased to $0.90 from $0.34 the prior year, an increase of 164.7%. This figure excludes the transformation program and other costs. The adjusted net effective tax rate for the quarter was 17.3%, a significant decrease from last year. The lower effective tax rate for the current period included an income tax benefit from the utilization of existing net operating losses and corresponding release of valuation allowances in Brazil and India. Our normalized net effective tax rate for the full year was 22.1%, which was slightly below the 23% to 24% range we had estimated. On Slide 13. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA increased 46.8% to $32.6 million, with margin expansion of 340 basis points to 9.7%. The positive contribution from volume, pricing and mix plus manufacturing efficiencies more than offset the impact from inflation and higher SG&A expenses. Moving on to Slide 14. Infrastructure Solutions net sales increased slightly to $240 million with domestic growth of 5%, offset by soft international demand. Parts sales were strong this quarter, up 7.2% as we were able to fulfill parts orders for aftermarket demand. Adjusted EBITDA margin for Infrastructure Solutions increased 500 basis points to 14.7%. Salable net volume price and mix outpaced inflation, driving higher gross margins. Net positive manufacturing efficiencies were partially offset by higher SG&A personnel costs. Turning to Slide 15. Materials Solutions net sales decreased 13.1% to $95.4 million as there were decreases in both international and domestic demand. International sales decreased 28.7% and domestic sales declined 7%. Equipment sales declined 15.7% and parts were down 7.8%. Adjusted EBITDA margins for Materials Solutions increased 50 basis points to 9.3%. This was largely due to the positive impact from pricing and manufacturing efficiencies, partially offset by lower volume and mix and an increase in SG&A personnel costs. On Slide 16, I'll review our full year results. Sales were $1.338 billion, up 5%, with increases in both infrastructure and Material Solutions due to price cost alignment and stable demand. By region, domestic sales growth of 6.8% was slightly offset by softer international sales, which were down 2.1%. Adjusted EBITDA grew 55.4% and adjusted EBITDA margins increased 260 basis points due to our ability to drive gross margin expansion through pricing initiatives. Adjusted earnings per share also had strong growth at 117.1% even when factoring in the litigation loss reserve we incurred in the second half of the year. Moving to Slide 17. We highlight the key drivers of our year-over-year adjusted EBITDA bridge. As previously mentioned, adjusted EBITDA increased 55.4% to $110 million with an EBITDA expansion of 260 basis points to 8.2%. As seen in the chart, the positive impact of net volume pricing and mix more than offset headwinds from inflation higher SG&A costs. We are proud of the strong expanded margin as our factory investments and pricing realization has come to fruition, and we expect to drive increased EBITDA to deliver long-term shareholder value. Turning to Slide 18. Our cash and cash equivalents stood at $59.8 million. We generated operating cash flow of $27.8 million compared with the use of cash of $73.9 million in the prior year, a difference of $101.7 million. This turnaround was due to improved earnings and steps we took to improve our working capital. Our liquidity is up slightly from the end of 2022, positioning us to continue investing in profitable growth initiatives while still maintaining a strong balance sheet. Turning to Slide 19. We maintain a disciplined capital deployment framework, balancing investments in growth with returning cash to shareholders. We spent $9.1 million on CapEx in the fourth quarter, bringing our full year CapEx to $34.1 million. This is within the range previously communicated. We were pleased to return $11.8 million to shareholders in the form of dividends during 2023 as we continue to direct capital to create the best returns. With that, I will now turn it back over to Jaco.

[Jaco van der Merwe, executive]

Thank you, Becky. In closing, on Slide 20. We closed 2023 by delivering strong results in the fourth quarter. I am confident our teams can deliver even better results during 2024. We have work yet to do, but we are well on our way to delivering enhanced performance for our customers and shareholders. I am grateful to our employees for their dedication and hard work and to our customers for their loyalty and support. With that, operator, we are now ready to open the call for questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Your first question is from the line of Steve Ferazani with BB&T.

[Steve Ferazani, analyst]

This is Alex on for Steve. Can we start by providing a little bit of color around what's led to the higher margins? Is that higher margin sales or pricing or other factors?

[Jaco van der Merwe, executive]

Yes. Alex, this is Jaco. Like we mentioned in previous earnings calls, Q4 is typically a strong quarter for us with regards to favorable parts mix. We've definitely seen that during the quarter. We also had a strong performance from our Infrastructure Solutions team. And it's difficult to point to one thing, but our teams have obviously done a lot of work on our parts performance. We've done a lot of work around operational excellence and investing in our facilities. And then we have a positive effect on pricing versus inflation. And as you've seen by the bridges, you know that effect is getting narrower every quarter. So definitely, for the coming year, we expect that to move much closer to each other as well.

[Steve Ferazani, analyst]

And a follow-up for me. Could you talk a little bit about order rate trends and if you're seeing movement towards a positive turn or particular areas of improvement within the backlog?

[Jaco van der Merwe, executive]

Yes. When it comes to ordering and backlog, there's a couple of factors that we are looking at. As mentioned in the prepared remarks, I've had the opportunity to speak to many customers already this year at Global Concrete, and National Asphalt Pavement Association. Our customers are busy, sentiment is positive. We are seeing improved flow from federal funding. And we obviously mentioned the release of new products that is busy hitting the market right now. On the opposite side of that, obviously, interest rates are affecting mostly our mobile crushing and screening equipment. And then this year, obviously, being an election year, we always expect a little bit of up and down from an order point of view. But overall, we believe that this year is going to be a stable year for us. The implied orders that jumped here in Q4 was a positive signal. So we are expecting flat to single-digit growth for 2024.

[Steve Ferazani, analyst]

Great. And last question for me. Could you talk a little bit more -- you've mentioned the plant efficiency and ERP. But I'm curious about some of the timing of margin improvements we might see from those as the implementation is developed.

[Jaco van der Merwe, executive]

Yes. So just on margins as a whole, it comes from various places. We are continuously working on delivering operational excellence. And as you can see with our CapEx last year, we invested quite a bit in our facilities. Those are continuously now having an effect. And obviously, we saw that in the last couple of quarters. We mentioned already the pricing inflation parity. And our One Astec procurement team, they are really coming together now nicely, and we are definitely taking advantage of the size of Astec now across the organization. So those are all contributing. On the ERP side, specifically, we went live on one site last year. We have various sites that will go live here during 2024. And we will have specifically two sites that will go in Q2. So we expect to see a positive effect of those in future quarters. But for the shorter term, there's a lot of good work that the teams have already done that should help with margins. I think one thing to consider also from a margin point of view, the level of work that we have in our factories are always a big item to consider when it comes to having good absorption. And I think our teams are doing a really good job now with improved sales and operations planning processes to plan for resources based on level. So the teams are well positioned that if the market continues to be strong, that we can take advantage of that. On certain products, if the market turns down, we have good visibility now to take appropriate actions.

[Rebecca Weyenberg, executive]

Yes. Jaco, I might like to add a reminder as well. We had a significant transformation program that's been to play the last 2 years with one of our sites in Chattanooga, and that is coming to a close. We are putting the final detail, which is launching in Q1 here. And then that's the end of that program as far as the investment. And then throughout the remainder of the year, they'll continue to perfect and stabilize. And so we do expect continued margin improvement from that investment to impact us in the back half of the year and then going forward, it will just continue to grow. The other major investment we're making is in our Omagh facility in Northern Ireland. We had a capital expansion to their facility which is still in progress, but will also finish in 2024. And that is specifically what we're calling our gateway to Europe. So we will be launching several new products in that facility once they have the room, and that will be in the back half of the year and into 2025. So we do see opportunity from our investments to increase our margin, our gross margin and EBITDA margin portfolio.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Mig Dobre with R.W. Baird.

[Joseph Grabowski, analyst]

It's Joe Grabowski on for Mig this morning. I also wanted to ask about EBITDA margin, but maybe kind of split it out between segments. The infrastructure EBITDA margin was the highest quarter it's been in the past several years, but Material Solutions margin was softer than it's been in 2023. So maybe kind of talk about margins by segment. And I know Becky, you were just kind of touching upon it, but what is kind of working in infrastructure that maybe is not flowing through in Material Solutions?

[Jaco van der Merwe, executive]

Yes. Joe, I could make a first stop at that. You're absolutely right. Infrastructure Solutions had a really strong performance. If you look at that group specifically Q4 is a very strong part quarter as will be Q1 this year. So part obviously was a positive influence. We've also -- the teams have done really well in driving efficiencies around our plants and the Asphalt and Concrete plants that we're selling. You guys have heard us talk in the past around modularization and the work we're doing on that. So we're starting to see the outcomes of that. But on the Infrastructure Solutions side, I will also say that over the last 3, 4 years, we've created a very strong rational team, and that team has obviously had enough time now to execute. And now that we have a new leader on the Material Solutions side, we will duplicate what we've done on that side. We have definitely seen interest rates having a more significant effect on the Material Solutions side of the business, specifically with customers not converting the rental units to procured units. So our dealers are carrying a bigger rental fleet versus converting those at the end of leases. The good thing is that our customers are running the equipment. So it's not that we have equipment standing. They are running. So as soon as they are starting to convert those rental to purchase agreements, our dealers will have to replenish that inventory. And we're obviously having discussions with our dealer network on a daily basis around that.

[Joseph Grabowski, analyst]

Got it. Okay. My next question would be, I guess, international sales. $51 million in the quarter, down 25% year-over-year. Can you talk about what you're seeing on the international side of the business?

[Jaco van der Merwe, executive]

Yes. And I will say a big piece of that was more timing. So obviously, Europe is soft. I think you've heard that from multiple other people in the industry. So Europe is soft, although Europe is not a big part of our business. But actually, if you look at our pipeline from an international point of view, we have a very strong pipeline in our quoting funnel. And we have various pieces of equipment that was in transit to international customers, and those should flow through year and Q1. So actually, I think our investment in our international organization have shown improvements over the last few years and with the strong pipeline that we have, we believe that 2024 will be stronger on the international side.

[Joseph Grabowski, analyst]

Got it. Okay. And final question for me. Becky, you touched upon the transformation program. I think you had $26 million of charges in 2022, $29 million in 2023. Maybe just kind of talk about what all is in the transformation program charges? And what do you expect those charges will be in 2024 and beyond?

[Rebecca Weyenberg, executive]

Sure, absolutely. So we do expect the same kind of range of spending as '24 and '25 are the rollout to all the sites. And we do expect to conclude the majority of that program in 2025 with all of our largest sites that manufacture products and then we'll continue with international sales entities and such, but those will be a lighter lift as we go forward. The transformation program, there was two programs, as I mentioned. The transformation at our facility here in Chattanooga is concluding this year. And so that one is -- that has finished at the end of Q1 for all intents and purposes so that we won't have those charges going forward. The remainder of the transformation is tied to our Oracle rollout. And I'll just remind everyone, it's more than an ERP. So it is -- we really had disparate systems everywhere in the company. Every site had a different flavor, but we were missing some fundamental basics. So we rolled out a human capital management system. We rolled out a customer relationship management tool, and we rolled out a corporate consolidation tool our ERP, and we're doing a transformation management system program. So quite a few heavy lifts there, but it will conclude at the end of '25. And we're pretty excited about it because we are already seeing that we have more effective and efficient operations because we went live in manufacturing facility and corporate. And then we went all of the U.S. human capital management. So the information we're getting, the quickness of the information, the accuracy of the data, I mean, that's really setting us up for future profitability and efficiency.

[Operator]

Your next question is from the line of Larry De Maria with William Blair.

[Lawrence De Maria, analyst]

Materials Solutions, it's obviously kind of a little bit weak near term. But can you break out backlog by segment? And then secondly, how did Material Solutions orders do versus expectations considering the dealer event. I think we were looking for a $70 million to $75 million there. Did we hit that number? Is that that relevant? Or if you just talk about the order expectations and maybe split out backlog of orders by Segment?

[Jaco van der Merwe, executive]

Yes, I'll take a start at the Intel Solutions event. The full value came in quite a bit lighter than what we expected, Larry. We had about $40 million. Now I will say that we had 2 or 3 of our biggest dealers that did not participate in that program this year due to what we explained earlier, equipment not converting from rental to procurement. We are having discussions with those dealers right now, customers are using equipment. So we might -- we actually expecting some of that right thing to take place here in the next couple of months. So yes, it came out quite a bit lighter, but customers are still using equipment. And if you look at the reports of companies in the material crushing space, all of those companies are expecting a pretty strong 2024. So we feel comfortable that this is more of a timing issue, and we're continuously working with our dealers on getting what they need to support their customers. On the backlog by segment. I don't think we typically break that out by segment. But obviously, Material Solutions saw the biggest reduction year-over-year from a percentage point of view. Sequentially in the last quarter, both were more or less the same percentage reduction compared to previous years. But we fully expect that bookings here in Q1 will be in line with what we expect and potentially be above what it was last year in Q1.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Your next question is from the line of Brian Sponheimer with Gabelli Funds.

[Brian Sponheimer, analyst]

I appreciate all the color on the call. Just a question about backlog. If we're looking at the $500 million or almost $600 million in backlog here, $570 million and compares that to $913 million a year ago, could you talk about maybe imputed margins and imputed pricing and what is in that backlog maybe relative to a year ago or what you've seen there and your ability to really defend pricing in that backlog as it's normalized?

[Jaco van der Merwe, executive]

Yes. Brian, I will say we are very confident in the pricing that we have in our backlog. I think our teams did an exceptional job after that first year being caught off guard with the inflationary bases that jumped up a bit quickly. So we feel confident about that. We've also already implemented pricing to offset any inflationary expectations for 2024.

[Brian Sponheimer, analyst]

So within that backlog, are there any potential mechanisms in case the inflation outlook changes for you to adjust pricing, and what is there?

[Jaco van der Merwe, executive]

We typically do not have an inflationary adjustment in our contracts post the signing of a deal. And that was the reason why what was it 2 years ago, pricing lagged inflation so much. I think the teams have been much more proactive to anticipate inflation and oligo pricing for future deliveries.

[Brian Sponheimer, analyst]

I appreciate that. And maybe, Becky, you can help here. If I'm thinking about how 2023 went with some decent quarters to start the year, obviously, third quarter was a challenge. If we're thinking about the ability to drive profitability in 2024, maybe in a year where infrastructure is up in materials is down. Talk about where your starting point is from a profitability perspective relative to a year ago.

[Rebecca Weyenberg, executive]

Certainly. Certainly, we've seen some softness in MS that we don't expect that to continue. We are seeing signs that, that will come back. And part of that comes from the fact that on our infrastructure solutions side of the house, we are largely direct sales. So we don't have the same pressures from -- we don't internally have the same pressures from interest rates. Certainly, our customers do, but we have some pretty large customers that can weather these storms a little bit more than we can at our side. But on the dealer sales channel, that's where we're seeing the most pressure. And if interest rates come down, I think everybody can read what set says the same as I can, but we expect maybe 1 or 2 cuts to come next year. If that happens, we're not banking on it, but if that happens, then that will give some confidence to our dealer network and they'll be able to carry some more inventory. Right now, they're kind of wait and see. They want to see that these rentals convert. But certainly, we were pretty pleased every single quarter this year, we had above 23% gross margin, and we know that we can do better than that as we saw in Q4. So if we can get the sales, we feel pretty strong that we have runway to expand both gross margins as well as EBITDA and profit margins going forward. We're also very confident in our programs that we're rolling out. The return on our invested capital grew quite a bit this year, finishing the year at 9.9%. So we know that we're tracking very well with our programs that we're spending money on, and we make sure that they hit our metrics for approval. So we do see quite a bit of opportunity. And Jaco mentioned this as well. The other third point that gives us confidence is our ability to increase our parts fill rates. We should never have parts in backlog. So that is part of our drop in backlog. We are turning part of orders at a regular routine. We want to satisfy the customer in 24 hours when possible. A little bit longer if we have to manufacture something that's an older equip equipment, but we've seen very good progress there, but we're not where we want to be. So we'll continue to focus on that, and that should also give us some room for expansion.

[Jaco van der Merwe, executive]

Brian, it's Jaco here. Maybe just an additional comment on that. This year, for us, I will say, if we get the sales, we feel that operationally, we have a lot of stability now in the way we manufacture pricing. So if the sales are there, we feel that there is an upside to profit development. So we're spending a lot of time and effort with our sales teams to fill the pipeline up. And because of all the work that we've done to create more consistency in our business, that should show up positively in the future if we materialize the sales.

[Brian Sponheimer, analyst]

I appreciate that. I guess one last one, if you'll allow. With the idea that you kind of set a baseline for where profitability is going to go. Balance sheet is in great shape. How do you think about using cash here? Is it buyback? You're looking for acquisitions? Is it just fixing what's -- continuing to fix what --

[Jaco van der Merwe, executive]

Yes. No, good question. Good question, Brian. So from a capital allocation point of view, there's a couple of things that we have on the table. Obviously, CapEx, we still want to invest in our facilities. So we think CapEx is going to be in that $30 million, $35 million range. And then we'll continue with the dividend. I think this past year, it was about $12 million. From a buyback point of view, we do have an open program under the current program design. Even if we do start buyback, it will not give us significant volume just because of the way the plan is designed. But we want to make sure we drive down our inventory to obviously fund and pay down the debt that we have on our revolver today. And we are definitely looking at a future acquisition opportunities. The teams are all working on filling that pipeline. And if we find the right company, we'll definitely consider that. I will also just mention that our teams have done a really good job this last year on things other than just inventory. If you look at our accounts receivable, accounts payable work that the teams have done there, I will say it's in the best shape it's been in a long time. So a lot of work around using our capital in a good way and driving that ROIC in that Iberis is a big focus for us.

[Brian Sponheimer, analyst]

All right. Great. Much appreciated and congrats on a good turnaround from Q3 here.

[Operator]

Your next question is a follow-up from the line of Larry De Maria with William Blair.

[Lawrence De Maria, analyst]

I got disconnected before. You noted the, obviously, a big increase in gross margins for the year. I think 24.7% and obviously above 26% in 4Q. We look at '25, '22 up to '24, flat to up sales to Mason program benefits, growth in parts. So shouldn't that not imply 25% to 26% gross margin in '24. Is that fair? Or if not, why?

[Jaco van der Merwe, executive]

Yes. No, that's a good question. We definitely have various items that we are working on, Larry. I talked about further driving the parts business, the new products that we are releasing, the work we're doing on procurement. I will say the item that we are watching very closely is making sure that we have good control in our factories around absorption. So all the goods that we're working on, we are expecting margins to continuously improve. It's just a timing thing on exactly when it will hit, but there's definitely a lot of positive momentum around margin development.

[Rebecca Weyenberg, executive]

Yes, Larry, I might add. I mean, we're positive about our margin expansion. But just we're cautionary at this point because we do have several factories that are going to go live with Oracle. We're really confident in where we're positioned. The teams are all on board and great leadership at our sites that are going live that are really driving it from the top down. So if everything goes as planned, we should expect our margin to improve, but we are certainly expecting an uptick here with a range that could be anywhere from 24% to 25.5%.

[Operator]

There are no further questions in queue. I'd like to hand the call back to Steve Anderson for closing remarks.

[Stephen C. Anderson, executive]

All right. Thank you, Des. Thank you, everyone, for being on the call. I'd like to remind you that Astec will be displaying products at the World of Asphalt trade show in Nashville, Tennessee on March 25 through March 27. So if you attend that show, please stop by our booth and say hello. We appreciate your participation on this call, and thank you for your interest in Astec. As today's news release indicates, this conference call has been recorded. A replay of the conference call will be available through March 13, 2024, and an archived webcast will be available for 90 days. The transcript will be available under the Investor Relations section of the Astec Industries website within the next 7 days. All of that information is contained in the news release that went out earlier this morning. This concludes our call. But as always, I'm happy to connect with the calls later on. Thank you all. Have a good day.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.