Arm Holdings PLC
NASDAQ:ARM
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one ARM stock under the Base Case scenario is 41.8 USD. Compared to the current market price of 128.73 USD, Arm Holdings PLC is Overvalued by 68%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
Arm Holdings PLC
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Fundamental Analysis
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Arm Holdings PLC stands at the forefront of the semiconductor industry, specializing in designing energy-efficient microprocessors and other critical components that power a wide range of electronic devices, from smartphones and tablets to sophisticated industrial systems. Founded in 1990, this British company has carved a niche for itself by licensing its technology rather than manufacturing chips, making it a cornerstone of the global electronics ecosystem. With its unique business model, Arm holds a significant market share in mobile computing and is increasingly penetrating sectors such as automotive, consumer electronics, and the rapidly evolving Internet of Things (IoT). The company’s...
Arm Holdings PLC stands at the forefront of the semiconductor industry, specializing in designing energy-efficient microprocessors and other critical components that power a wide range of electronic devices, from smartphones and tablets to sophisticated industrial systems. Founded in 1990, this British company has carved a niche for itself by licensing its technology rather than manufacturing chips, making it a cornerstone of the global electronics ecosystem. With its unique business model, Arm holds a significant market share in mobile computing and is increasingly penetrating sectors such as automotive, consumer electronics, and the rapidly evolving Internet of Things (IoT). The company’s designs are integral to enabling advanced capabilities, underscoring its relevance as technology continues to evolve.
For investors, Arm Holdings presents an attractive opportunity, particularly in light of the booming demand for chip technology driven by trends like artificial intelligence, connected devices, and cloud computing. The company’s strategy focuses on research and development, maintaining its competitive edge by continually innovating at the microchip level. Despite facing challenges from intensifying competition and global supply chain issues, Arm's strategic partnerships with leading tech companies bolster its growth potential and help mitigate risks. As the world becomes increasingly reliant on technology, Arm Holdings’ pivotal role in shaping the future of connected devices makes it a compelling investment for those looking to capitalize on the ongoing digital revolution.
Arm Holdings PLC, known for its semiconductor and software design, primarily focuses on the following core business segments:
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Licensing: This is Arm's primary revenue source, where it licenses its intellectual property (IP) and architectures to semiconductor manufacturers. Companies pay for the rights to use Arm's designs for microprocessors, graphics processors, and other types of chips that are foundational to various devices, from smartphones to servers.
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Royalties: In addition to licensing fees, Arm earns royalties based on the volume of chips sold that use its technology. This recurring revenue stream allows Arm to benefit from the growth of the semiconductor market.
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Software Development Tools: Arm provides a suite of software development tools, including development environments and middleware that support its hardware. This segment strengthens the ecosystem around Arm's architectures and aids developers in creating applications for its platforms.
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Security and IoT Solutions: With the rise of connected devices, Arm has focused on providing security solutions and platforms tailored for Internet of Things (IoT) applications. This includes technologies that ensure data integrity and security across IoT devices and networks.
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Cloud and Data Center Solutions: Arm is expanding its footprint in the cloud and data center markets, capitalizing on the demand for energy-efficient and high-performance computing. Its Neoverse platform targets servers and data center applications.
Arm's business model emphasizes collaboration with a vast ecosystem of partners, which enhances its reach and influence across various technology markets. The company is strategically positioned to benefit from the increasing trend of computing and processing power across diverse industries, including automotive, consumer electronics, and artificial intelligence.
Arm Holdings PLC has several unique competitive advantages over its rivals in the semiconductor industry:
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Architecture Licensing Model: Unlike many semiconductor companies that manufacture their chips, Arm focuses on designing semiconductor architectures and licensing them to other companies. This model allows Arm to scale its business without the heavy capital expenditures associated with wafer fabrication.
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Ecosystem and Market Penetration: Arm's architecture is widely adopted in mobile devices, embedded systems, and increasingly in other markets such as IoT and automotive. The extensive ecosystem built around Arm, including a robust support network of third-party developers and hardware manufacturers, creates a strong network effect.
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Energy Efficiency: Arm’s designs are known for their low power consumption, making them particularly advantageous for mobile devices and IoT applications. This focus on energy efficiency resonates well with current market trends towards sustainability and mobile computing, giving Arm an edge over competitors.
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Partnerships and Collaborations: Arm has established strong partnerships with major tech companies, including Apple, Samsung, and Qualcomm. These relationships not only enhance its credibility but also promote the adoption of its designs across different platforms and industries.
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Research and Development Capabilities: Arm invests heavily in R&D to innovate and adapt its technology to new applications, including artificial intelligence and machine learning. This ongoing innovation helps maintain its relevance amid rapidly changing technology landscapes.
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Scalability: The nature of its licensing model allows Arm to expand its customer base internationally without the need for direct manufacturing capabilities. This provides significant flexibility and growth potential.
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Security Features: Arm has developed secure architectures, such as TrustZone, that enhance device security. In an era where cybersecurity is paramount, this feature provides additional value to its product offerings.
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Industry Standards: Arm's architecture has become a de facto standard in many markets, making it difficult for new entrants or alternatives to gain traction. This standardization creates high switching costs for companies heavily invested in Arm technology.
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Adaptability to Emerging Markets: Arm has shown agility in adapting its designs to meet the needs of emerging markets like IoT, automotive technology, and edge computing. This adaptability allows it to capture new growth opportunities ahead of competitors.
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Brand Reputation and Recognition: Established over many years, Arm's strong brand reputation as a trusted provider of semiconductor solutions enhances its competitive position and attracts more clients.
Overall, Arm’s unique competitive advantages position it strongly in the technology ecosystem, making it difficult for rivals to replicate its success.
Arm Holdings PLC faces several risks and challenges that could impact its business in the near future:
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Intense Competition: The semiconductor industry is highly competitive, with major players like Intel, AMD, and Nvidia positioning themselves aggressively. Additionally, companies like RISC-V are emerging, which could disrupt Arm's market share.
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Supply Chain Vulnerabilities: The global semiconductor supply chain has been under strain, leading to shortages and delays. Any disruptions in production or logistics could adversely affect Arm's ability to deliver products to its customers.
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Regulatory Challenges: As Arm operates in various countries, it faces different regulatory environments. Changes in trade policies, tariffs, or regulations can impact its operations and market access.
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Intellectual Property Risks: Arm’s business model heavily relies on licensing its technology. Any infringement of its intellectual property, whether through litigation or adoption of alternative architectures, could undermine its revenue.
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Technology Shifts: The rapid pace of technology advancement means that Arm must continually innovate to stay relevant. The rise in AI, machine learning, and high-performance computing may require substantial investment in R&D.
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Geopolitical Factors: Tensions between major economies, particularly involving the US, China, and the UK, could lead to restrictions or changes in partnership dynamics that may negatively affect Arm's operations or market opportunities.
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Market Demand Fluctuations: Changes in demand within the semiconductor market, due to economic downturns or shifts in consumer preferences, may impact Arm's revenue.
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Acquisition and Integration Risks: Following the acquisition by Nvidia, if it proceeds, there are risks associated with integrating the two companies' cultures, technologies, and operational strategies.
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Dependency on Licensees: A significant part of Arm’s revenue comes from licensing agreements. If its licensees face financial troubles or fail to adopt Arm's architectures, it will directly affect Arm's profitability.
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Talent Retention and Recruitment: The tech industry is highly competitive for top talent. Arm must ensure it can attract and retain skilled employees to drive its innovation agenda.
Addressing these risks effectively will be crucial for Arm's sustained growth and market leadership.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Arm Holdings PLC
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Arm Holdings PLC
Current Assets | 4.1B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 2.4B |
Receivables | 1.5B |
Other Current Assets | 246m |
Non-Current Assets | 4B |
Long-Term Investments | 796m |
PP&E | 523m |
Intangibles | 1.8B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 878m |
Current Liabilities | 899m |
Accounts Payable | 34m |
Accrued Liabilities | 430m |
Other Current Liabilities | 435m |
Non-Current Liabilities | 1.2B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 1.2B |
Earnings Waterfall
Arm Holdings PLC
Revenue
|
3.5B
USD
|
Cost of Revenue
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-142m
USD
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Gross Profit
|
3.4B
USD
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Operating Expenses
|
-3B
USD
|
Operating Income
|
402m
USD
|
Other Expenses
|
239m
USD
|
Net Income
|
641m
USD
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
Arm Holdings PLC
USD | |
Free Cash Flow | USD |
In Q2 of fiscal 2025, Arm reported revenues of $844 million, surpassing expectations, with royalty revenue growing 23% year-over-year to $514 million. This growth was primarily driven by the adoption of the Armv9 architecture, which now accounts for 25% of royalty revenues, up from 10% a year ago, and a remarkable 40% increase in smartphone royalty revenue. For Q3, revenue guidance ranges from $920 million to $970 million, projecting a 15% year-over-year growth. The company also reiterated its fiscal year revenue guidance of $3.8 billion to $4.1 billion, indicating an 18% to 27% annual increase.
What is Earnings Call?
ARM Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Arm Holdings PLC's profitability score is 58/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Arm Holdings PLC's profitability score is 58/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
ARM Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Arm Holdings PLC's solvency score is 80/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Arm Holdings PLC's solvency score is 80/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
ARM Price Targets Summary
Arm Holdings PLC
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ARM is 140.95 USD with a low forecast of 75.96 USD and a high forecast of 210 USD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for ARM is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
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Industry
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Dividend Yield
Description
Arm Holdings PLC is a GB-based company operating in Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment industry. The company is headquartered in Cambridge, Cambridgeshire and currently employs 5,963 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2023-09-14. Arm Holdings plc is a semiconductor intellectual property (IP) company. The firm develops and licenses IP for various devices worldwide, and it provides development tools that accelerate product development, from sensors to smartphones to servers. Its central processing unit (CPUs) and nomenclature for properties and units (NPUs) include Cortex-A, Cortex-M, Cortex-R, Neoverse, Ethos and SecurCore. The company provides processor IP, offering a range of cores to address the performance, power and cost requirements of every device, from Internet of things sensors to supercomputers, and from smartphones and laptops to autonomous vehicles. Its graphics and camera technology drives the visual experience across a range of devices, including mass-market to high-performance smartphones, Android OS-based tablets, and digital televisions. The company provides foundation physical IP and processor implementation solutions to address the performance, power and cost requirements for all application markets.
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The intrinsic value of one ARM stock under the Base Case scenario is 41.8 USD.
Compared to the current market price of 128.73 USD, Arm Holdings PLC is Overvalued by 68%.