Applovin Corp
NASDAQ:APP
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one APP stock under the Base Case scenario is 110.62 USD. Compared to the current market price of 291.09 USD, Applovin Corp is Overvalued by 62%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
Applovin Corp
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Fundamental Analysis
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Applovin Corp. is a dynamic player in the mobile advertising and app development space, strategically poised at the intersection of technology and entertainment. Founded in 2012, the company has rapidly cultivated a robust platform that empowers developers to maximize their monetization efforts while connecting advertisers with engaged audiences across millions of mobile applications. Applovin’s unique blend of software tools not only helps app creators enhance user experience but also optimizes advertising campaigns, ultimately driving revenue growth for both parties. As the mobile app ecosystem continues to soar, fueled by increasing smartphone usage and a shift toward digital consumption,...
Applovin Corp. is a dynamic player in the mobile advertising and app development space, strategically poised at the intersection of technology and entertainment. Founded in 2012, the company has rapidly cultivated a robust platform that empowers developers to maximize their monetization efforts while connecting advertisers with engaged audiences across millions of mobile applications. Applovin’s unique blend of software tools not only helps app creators enhance user experience but also optimizes advertising campaigns, ultimately driving revenue growth for both parties. As the mobile app ecosystem continues to soar, fueled by increasing smartphone usage and a shift toward digital consumption, Applovin stands out with its innovative solutions and expansive reach.
For investors, Applovin presents an appealing proposition driven by its impressive growth trajectory and a strong market presence. The company operates on a dual-business model, encompassing both platform solutions that facilitate app development and sophisticated advertising technology that enables precise user targeting. With a portfolio of products that includes user acquisition, analytics, and monetization tools, Applovin has positioned itself as a crucial partner for developers aiming to thrive in a competitive landscape. As the company navigates the evolving world of mobile computing and digital advertising, its commitment to innovation and high-margin business strategies showcases potential for generating substantial returns, making it an intriguing opportunity for those looking to invest in the future of tech-driven entertainment.
Applovin Corporation operates in several key business segments that leverage technology to support app developers and enhance user engagement. The main core segments include:
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App Discovery and User Acquisition: Applovin's platform helps app developers acquire new users through targeted advertising. This segment focuses on promoting apps to increase downloads and user engagement, utilizing data analytics to optimize ad campaigns.
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Monetization Solutions: This segment encompasses tools and services that help developers monetize their apps. Applovin provides various ad formats (including video ads, interactive ads, and rewarded ads) to maximize revenue potential for developers.
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Gaming: Applovin has a significant presence in mobile gaming, both through its own games and by providing publishing services for third-party developers. This segment includes game development, ad integration, and player engagement strategies.
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Software Development Kit (SDK) and APIs: Applovin offers SDKs and application programming interfaces (APIs) that developers can integrate into their apps to access Applovin's advertising and analytics capabilities. This segment supports developers in enhancing their app functionalities.
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Analytics and Optimization: The company provides analytics tools that enable app developers to track performance, user behavior, and monetization strategies. This segment focuses on data-driven insights to improve marketing strategies and overall app performance.
These segments collectively enable Applovin to serve both developers and advertisers effectively, creating a comprehensive ecosystem for mobile applications.
Applovin Corp has several unique competitive advantages that position it favorably within the mobile marketing and app development landscape:
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Integrated Platform: Applovin offers a comprehensive platform that combines app development, user acquisition, and monetization solutions. This end-to-end offering allows developers to manage the entire lifecycle of their apps effectively, driving higher efficiency and potentially better profitability compared to competitors that focus on only one aspect.
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Data-Driven Insights: The company leverages extensive data analytics to optimize ad performance and user engagement. Their ability to gather and analyze large sets of user data provides actionable insights that can improve targeting and personalized marketing, thereby enhancing ROI for advertisers and developers.
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Developer Focus: Applovin has a strong emphasis on empowering app developers through tools that facilitate user growth and monetization. This developer-centric approach builds loyalty and fosters long-term partnerships, differentiating them from competitors who may prioritize larger advertisers or less individualized service.
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Diversified Revenue Streams: The company generates revenue from multiple sources, including advertising, in-app purchases, and subscription models. This diversification helps mitigate risk and provides stability against market fluctuations, ensuring steady revenue growth.
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Strong Relationships in the Mobile Ecosystem: Applovin has established robust relationships with both developers and advertisers, creating a vast network that enhances its market position. This interconnected ecosystem fosters collaboration, leading to innovations and solutions that benefit all parties involved.
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Scalable Technology: Applovin's technology infrastructure is designed to scale effectively, allowing it to handle increased traffic and customer demands. This scalability is crucial as the mobile app market continues to grow and evolve rapidly.
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Focus on Emerging Markets: Applovin has been proactive in expanding its reach into emerging markets, where mobile usage is increasing significantly. This strategic focus allows it to capture a growing user base and adapt its offerings to meet the unique needs of those markets.
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Brand Recognition and Trust: As a player in the mobile app ecosystem with a strong market presence, Applovin benefits from brand recognition and trust among developers and advertisers, which can be vital for competitive positioning in a rapidly changing landscape.
By leveraging these competitive advantages, Applovin Corp is well-positioned to continue thriving amidst competition from both established players and new entrants in the mobile app industry.
Applovin Corp, like many companies in the technology and advertising sectors, faces several risks and challenges in the near future. Here are some key considerations:
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Regulatory Challenges: Increased scrutiny from regulators around privacy, data protection, and anti-competitive practices can pose risks. Changes in regulations, such as the implementation of GDPR in Europe or CCPA in California, can impact how Applovin handles user data and target ads.
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Market Competition: The mobile advertising and app ecosystem is highly competitive, with players like Google, Facebook, Unity, and others. Intense competition can put pressure on pricing and profitability, impacting market share.
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Dependency on Mobile Ecosystem: Applovin's business model is closely tied to the mobile app ecosystem. Any significant shifts in user behavior, such as changes in app usage patterns or declines in mobile device sales, could adversely affect their business.
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Technological Changes: The rapid pace of technological advancement means that Applovin must continuously innovate to keep up. Failing to adapt to new technologies or consumer demands could result in lost opportunities or obsolescence.
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Economic Factors: Broader economic conditions, such as a recession or inflation, can impact advertising budgets. Companies often reduce ad spending in difficult economic times, which could affect Applovin’s revenue.
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Supply Chain and Operational Risks: Global disruptions, such as those caused by pandemics or geopolitical tensions, can impact operations, including service delivery and access to talent.
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Dependence on Key Partnerships: If Applovin relies heavily on certain partners for distribution or advertising, disruptions or changes in those partnerships can present risks, including financial impacts.
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Intellectual Property Risks: As a tech company, Applovin is vulnerable to intellectual property disputes, which can lead to costly litigation and settlements. This could also impact their operational strategy.
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User Experience and Satisfaction: Negative user experiences or dissatisfaction with the advertising products can lead to a decline in app developer and user retention, affecting revenue.
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Talent Acquisition and Retention: The technology sector is highly competitive for skilled workers, and difficulties in hiring or retaining top talent can impede growth and innovation.
By keeping these risks in mind, Applovin Corp can proactively develop strategies to mitigate them while capitalizing on potential growth opportunities. Monitoring the competitive landscape and regulatory environment will be crucial for their continued success.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Applovin Corp
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Applovin Corp
Current Assets | 1.9B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 567.6m |
Receivables | 1.2B |
Other Current Assets | 120.4m |
Non-Current Assets | 3.6B |
PP&E | 177.1m |
Intangibles | 2.9B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 514.1m |
Current Liabilities | 779.5m |
Accounts Payable | 427.8m |
Accrued Liabilities | 240.3m |
Other Current Liabilities | 111.4m |
Non-Current Liabilities | 3.7B |
Long-Term Debt | 3.5B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 250.3m |
Earnings Waterfall
Applovin Corp
Revenue
|
4.3B
USD
|
Cost of Revenue
|
-1.1B
USD
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Gross Profit
|
3.2B
USD
|
Operating Expenses
|
-1.6B
USD
|
Operating Income
|
1.5B
USD
|
Other Expenses
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-384.9m
USD
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Net Income
|
1.2B
USD
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
Applovin Corp
USD | |
Free Cash Flow | USD |
In the third quarter, AppLovin achieved $1.2 billion in revenue, marking a 39% increase year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA rose 72% to $722 million. Their software platform, mainly driven by AXON technology, contributed $835 million in revenue with a 78% margin. Looking ahead, the company anticipates Q4 revenue between $1.24 and $1.26 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $740-$760 million, maintaining a 60% margin. The early stages of their e-commerce initiative show promise, with confidence in scaling it significantly by 2025, potentially adding materially to future earnings【4:1†source】【4:3†source】【4:4†source】.
What is Earnings Call?
APP Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Applovin Corp's profitability score is 72/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Applovin Corp's profitability score is 72/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
APP Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Applovin Corp's solvency score is 44/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Applovin Corp's solvency score is 44/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
APP Price Targets Summary
Applovin Corp
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for APP is 128.3 USD with a low forecast of 66.66 USD and a high forecast of 220.5 USD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for APP is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
Country
Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
AppLovin Corp. engages in the development and operation of a mobile marketing platform. The company is headquartered in Palo Alto, California and currently employs 1,594 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2021-04-15. The Company’s software solutions provide advanced tools for mobile application (app) developers to develop their businesses by automating and optimizing the marketing and monetization of their apps. Its key elements of its solutions are delivered through the AppLovin Core Technologies and AppLovin Software Platform. AppLovin Core Technologies is foundational technology infrastructure which powers its Software Platform and, in turn, its Apps. Its Core Technologies consist of AXON machine-learning recommendation engine, App Graph, and elastic cloud infrastructure. AppLovin Software Platform is comprehensive suite of tools for developers to get their mobile apps discovered and downloaded by the right users, optimize return on marketing spend, and maximize monetization of engagement. Its Software Platform is comprised of three solutions: AppDiscovery, Adjust and MAX.
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The intrinsic value of one APP stock under the Base Case scenario is 110.62 USD.
Compared to the current market price of 291.09 USD, Applovin Corp is Overvalued by 62%.