Affirm Holdings Inc
NASDAQ:AFRM
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one AFRM stock under the Base Case scenario is 49.39 USD. Compared to the current market price of 57.59 USD, Affirm Holdings Inc is Overvalued by 14%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
Affirm Holdings Inc
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Fundamental Analysis
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Affirm Holdings Inc. is transforming the retail landscape by providing a unique buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) solution that empowers consumers to make purchases in a more manageable way. Launched in 2012 by co-founder Max Levchin, one of the original architects of PayPal, Affirm aims to democratize access to credit for everyday shoppers. The company's platform allows consumers to split their purchases into easy-to-manage installment payments, often without hidden fees or exorbitant interest rates commonly associated with traditional credit options. By partnering with a diverse range of retailers, from e-commerce giants to small businesses, Affirm has positioned itself as a key player in the rapid...
Affirm Holdings Inc. is transforming the retail landscape by providing a unique buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) solution that empowers consumers to make purchases in a more manageable way. Launched in 2012 by co-founder Max Levchin, one of the original architects of PayPal, Affirm aims to democratize access to credit for everyday shoppers. The company's platform allows consumers to split their purchases into easy-to-manage installment payments, often without hidden fees or exorbitant interest rates commonly associated with traditional credit options. By partnering with a diverse range of retailers, from e-commerce giants to small businesses, Affirm has positioned itself as a key player in the rapidly growing fintech sector, appealing to both budget-conscious consumers and forward-thinking merchants.
For investors, Affirm's story is one of significant growth potential amidst an evolving financial landscape. With the rising popularity of online shopping and changing consumer preferences toward flexible payment options, Affirm has seen substantial increases in transaction volume and customer engagement. The company has also articulated a clear path to profitability, focusing on sustainable growth and efficient operations while prioritizing regulatory compliance as it expands. As traditional lending models face scrutiny and alternative payment solutions gain traction, Affirm stands out by offering a compelling value proposition that aligns well with modern consumer behaviors, making it a noteworthy investment opportunity for those looking to capitalize on the fintech revolution.
Affirm Holdings, Inc. is a financial technology company that has established itself primarily in the Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) space. The company's core business segments can be broadly categorized as follows:
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Consumer Payment Solutions: This segment involves providing consumers with flexible payment plans at points of sale, allowing them to make purchases online or in-store and pay for them in installments. Affirm offers various payment options, including interest-free financing and loans with fixed or variable interest rates. This service is integrated into many e-commerce platforms, where consumers can select Affirm as a payment option during checkout.
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Merchant Partnerships: Affirm partners with a wide range of merchants, from large e-commerce retailers to small businesses. Through these partnerships, Affirm enables merchants to offer BNPL solutions to their customers, thus driving sales and increasing average order values. The company earns revenue from merchants in the form of fees for facilitating transactions.
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Credit Offerings: Affirm provides credit offerings to consumers, which can include various forms of loans. The company assesses consumer creditworthiness using alternative data and its proprietary algorithms, allowing for a broader range of consumers to access financing options. This segment focuses on offering personalized credit solutions tailored to individual needs.
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Affirm's Interest Income: As part of its financial operations, Affirm earns interest income from the loans it provides to consumers. This income is generated from fees associated with financing options that carry interest, as well as from any potential late fees.
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Consumer Engagement and Loyalty Programs: To promote its services, Affirm also emphasizes customer engagement and loyalty programs, encouraging repeat business. They may offer promotional financing terms during specific periods, enhancing consumer engagement and driving repeat usage of their payment solutions.
In summary, Affirm Holdings, Inc. operates in a unique intersection of fintech and retail, focusing on providing accessible payment solutions for consumers and valuable financial tools for merchants. Its growth strategy leverages technology to enhance the buying experience while expanding its offerings to a diverse consumer base as well as merchants across various industries.
Affirm Holdings Inc., a fintech company specializing in point-of-sale financing, has several unique competitive advantages over its rivals in the buy now, pay later (BNPL) space:
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Strong Merchant Partnerships: Affirm has established partnerships with a wide range of merchants across different sectors, including retail, travel, and e-commerce. This broad merchant base enhances its visibility and accessibility for consumers, making it a preferred choice for many purchases.
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Transparent Pricing and No Hidden Fees: Affirm’s commitment to transparency is a significant differentiator. Unlike many competitors, Affirm clearly discloses the costs associated with financing, including interest rates and repayment terms, allowing consumers to make informed decisions without the worry of hidden fees.
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Flexible Payment Options: Affirm offers a variety of flexible payment plans, including fixed payment terms and monthly installments, which cater to different consumers' financial situations and preferences. This adaptability can attract a broader customer base.
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Focus on Creditworthiness Rather than Credit Scores: Affirm utilizes an alternative credit assessment model that evaluates a wider range of consumer data, allowing it to approve a greater number of customers. This data-driven approach can enable access for consumers who may have limited credit history.
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Customer-Centric Technology: Affirm invests significantly in technology to improve the user experience, including a seamless application process and quick credit decisions. Its mobile-first approach ensures accessibility and convenience for tech-savvy consumers.
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Consumer Trust and Brand Recognition: Over the years, Affirm has built a strong brand associated with ethical lending practices and consumer empowerment. This reputation fosters trust, encouraging users to choose Affirm over competitors.
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Strategic Acquisitions and Innovation: The company’s strategy of acquiring complementary technologies and businesses enhances its service offerings and technological capabilities. For example, the acquisition of companies involved in payment processing can streamline operations and add value.
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Diverse Product Offerings: Beyond BNPL, Affirm is expanding its product offerings to include more financial services, such as savings accounts and credit lines, positioning itself as a broader financial service provider rather than just a BNPL player.
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Data Analytics and Personalization: Affirm leverages data analytics to personalize its offerings, improving targeted marketing and enhancing customer retention. This data-driven approach can provide insights into consumer behavior, allowing for more tailored financial products.
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Regulatory Compliance and Partnerships: Affirm has demonstrated its commitment to regulatory compliance, positioning itself favorably against less compliant rivals. Partnerships with recognized financial institutions further reinforce its credibility and operational strength.
These competitive advantages help Affirm differentiate itself in the crowded BNPL market, positioning it for long-term growth and sustainability.
Affirm Holdings Inc., a company specializing in buy now, pay later (BNPL) services, faces several risks and challenges in the near future:
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Regulatory Scrutiny: As the BNPL sector grows, regulatory bodies are increasingly scrutinizing it. Affirm may face new regulations that could limit its operational flexibility or increase compliance costs.
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Market Competition: The BNPL space is highly competitive, with numerous players, including traditional credit card companies and new fintech entrants. This competition could compress margins or lead to increased customer acquisition costs.
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Economic Slowdown: A potential recession or economic downturn could lead to higher default rates among customers. Affirm’s business model relies on consumer spending, which could decline in such an environment.
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Credit Risk: As Affirm provides credit to consumers, it is exposed to the risk of defaults. Changes in consumer credit profiles or broader economic conditions could increase non-performing loans.
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Interest Rate Fluctuations: Rising interest rates could impact Affirm’s cost of capital and its ability to offer competitive financing options. Higher rates may also lead consumers to be more cautious in taking on debt.
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Partnership Dependencies: Affirm relies on partnerships with merchants to drive transaction volumes. Changes in merchant relationships or their financial stability could impact Affirm's growth and revenue sources.
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Consumer Behavior Changes: Shifts in consumer preferences or behaviors, particularly regarding credit usage and spending habits, could affect demand for BNPL services.
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Technology and Cybersecurity Risks: As a fintech company, Affirm is reliant on technology. Cybersecurity threats and technology failures could harm its operations and customer trust.
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Market Saturation: As the BNPL model becomes more established, growth rates may slow. Affirm must find new ways to innovate and differentiate its services to continue attracting customers.
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Reputational Risks: Negative consumer experiences or public perception issues could affect Affirm’s brand reputation, impacting customer retention and acquisition.
These challenges require Affirm to stay agile, innovate, and maintain robust risk management practices to navigate the evolving financial landscape.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Affirm Holdings Inc
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Affirm Holdings Inc
Current Assets | 1.4B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 1B |
Receivables | 308.4m |
Other Current Assets | 14.8m |
Non-Current Assets | 8.8B |
Long-Term Investments | 1.1B |
PP&E | 492.7m |
Intangibles | 550.2m |
Other Non-Current Assets | 6.6B |
Current Liabilities | 323.9m |
Accounts Payable | 57.6m |
Accrued Liabilities | 114.3m |
Other Current Liabilities | 152m |
Non-Current Liabilities | 7B |
Long-Term Debt | 6.9B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 47.6m |
Earnings Waterfall
Affirm Holdings Inc
Revenue
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2.3B
USD
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Operating Expenses
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-2.5B
USD
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Operating Income
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-185.4m
USD
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Other Expenses
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-260.8m
USD
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Net Income
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-446.2m
USD
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Free Cash Flow Analysis
Affirm Holdings Inc
USD | |
Free Cash Flow | USD |
AFRM Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Affirm Holdings Inc's profitability score is 34/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Affirm Holdings Inc's profitability score is 34/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
AFRM Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Affirm Holdings Inc's solvency score is 31/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Affirm Holdings Inc's solvency score is 31/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
AFRM Price Targets Summary
Affirm Holdings Inc
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AFRM is 46.65 USD with a low forecast of 20.2 USD and a high forecast of 71.4 USD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for AFRM is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Ownership
AFRM Insider Trading
Buy and sell transactions by insiders
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Profile
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Description
Affirm Holdings, Inc. operates a platform for digital and mobile-first commerce. The company is headquartered in San Francisco, California and currently employs 2,071 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2021-01-13. Through its technology-driven payments network and partnership with an originating bank, it enables consumers to pay for a purchase over time. Through its platform, the consumer selects their repayment option, loans are funded and issued by its originating bank partner. Its platform includes three elements: a point-of-sale payment solution, merchant commerce solutions, and a consumer-focused application. Its point-of-sale solution allows consumers to pay for purchases in fixed. The company enables consumers to pay overtime. Its platform enables APR payment options and interest-bearing loans. Its merchant commerce solutions allow merchants to solve for their customers. Its consumer-focused application enables consumers to use its application to manage payments, open a savings account and access a personalized marketplace. The company provides a digital return experiences and post-purchase payments for direct-to-consumer brands.
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The intrinsic value of one AFRM stock under the Base Case scenario is 49.39 USD.
Compared to the current market price of 57.59 USD, Affirm Holdings Inc is Overvalued by 14%.