Ameris Bancorp
NASDAQ:ABCB

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Ameris Bancorp
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Price: 71.79 USD 2.94% Market Closed
Market Cap: 5B USD
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Earnings Call Analysis

Q3-2023 Analysis
Ameris Bancorp

Company Maintains Strong Margin, Disciplined Growth

In a recent earnings call, executives discussed key financial strategies, anticipating a marginal compression yet maintaining a strong margin above 3.50%, compared to peers. The bank's strategy includes controlling loan growth to not exceed deposit growth, thereby ensuring better priced, stronger credit quality. A disciplined growth approach will persist throughout the year, with expectations of margin pressure but solid performance. Expense growth is forecasted to be between 3% to 4%, aligning with current consensus and excluding mortgage-related expenses.

Consolidation is on the Horizon

The banking industry is gearing up for a period of consolidation. With a few deals already announced, the expectation is for this trend to pick up pace in the coming years. The prevailing interest rates are set to remain at current levels rather than increase further. While this environment means ongoing earnings pressure for many banks due to lack of robust core deposits and diversified assets, it also presents collaboration opportunities. Regulatory approval, despite its uncertainties and timing, will play a key role in facilitating this anticipated wave of consolidation.

Stabilization of Gain on Sale Margins

There's some positive news regarding gain on sale margins – they've stabilized after a period of deterioration. The mortgage origination sector seems to have returned to a normalized seasonal pattern post the pandemic-induced volatility. With a run rate of $1.175 billion in mortgage originations this quarter, down slightly from $1.3 billion in the previous quarter, there's comfort in the current performance and an ability to adjust expenses accordingly. This suggests readiness to handle both positive and negative shifts in the market, with a nod to possible rate improvements by the end of the following year.

Effective Expense Management

The company asserts that its overhead is well-positioned, maintaining a core run rate for operational expenses while emphasizing the scalable nature of the business. This suggests the company is well-equipped to navigate both increasing and decreasing revenue environments, by stating that any revenue falls will be met with proportional expense reductions to maintain profitability.

Expectation of Margin Stabilization

There is an optimistic view on asset yields, with about $5.4 million in loans set to reprice in the upcoming three months, and a further $1 billion in the subsequent nine months. These repricings are expected to provide an upward push to yields, potentially counterbalancing the cost of deposits, leading to an overall margin stabilization forecast for the next two quarters.

Shift in Deposit Mix Anticipated

A change in the deposit blend is predicted for the fourth quarter due to the influx of cyclical public funds, which usually contain a mix of 15% noninterest-bearing and 85% interest-bearing accounts. Should this additional public funds influx mirror historical patterns, it could result in a temporary shift towards more interest-bearing accounts in the near term.

Liquidity and Funding Strategy

The liquidity situation looks comfortable, with a staggered approach to managing brokered CDs and FHLB advances. This approach is likely to continue, with careful management of margins and reducing reliance on excess borrowings or brokered disposals. In line with this strategy, Fourth-quarter shifts may see a reduction in such borrowings as public funds come into play. The overarching strategy balances the liquidity needs against return on assets (ROA) and margin considerations, indicating a robust approach to liquidity management.

Commitment to Controlled Growth

The company's focus is firmly on elements within its control, such as maintaining core profitability, ensuring capital growth, and managing asset growth judiciously. This disciplined approach is highlighted as the key to positioning the company well for future success.

Earnings Call Transcript

Earnings Call Transcript
2023-Q3

from 0
Operator

Good morning, everyone and welcome to Ameris Bancorp's Third Quarter Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] Please also note today's event is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Nicole Stokes, Chief Financial Officer. Ma'am, please go ahead.

N
Nicole Stokes
executive

Great. Thank you, Jamie and thank you to all who have joined our call today. During the call, we will be referencing the press release and the financial highlights that are available on the Investor Relations section of our website at amerisbank.com.

I'm joined today by Palmer Proctor, our CEO; and Jon Edwards, our Chief Credit Officer. Palmer will begin with some opening general comments and then I'm going to discuss the details of our financial results before we open it up for Q&A.

But before we begin, I'll remind you that our comments may include forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. The actual results could vary materially. We list some of the factors that might cause results to differ in our press release and in our SEC filings, which are available on our website.

We do not assume any obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information, early developments or otherwise, except as required by law. Also during the call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures in reference to the company's performance. You can see our reconciliation of these measures and GAAP financial measures in the appendix to our presentation.

And with that, I'll turn it over to Palmer for his comments.

H
H. Proctor
executive

Thank you, Nicole and good morning, everyone. I appreciate you taking the time to join our call today. I am proud to talk about our solid third quarter financial results that we reported yesterday. This quarter really was a testament to our discipline and core profitability and it's what creates the positive outlook we have for the future. So for the third quarter, we reported net income of $80 million or $1.16 per diluted share. Because of these strong core earnings and the minimal impact to AOCI from our bond portfolio, counter to most of the industry, we grew tangible book value by over 12% annualized and moved our TCE ratio to above 9%.

We recorded $24.5 million in provision for credit losses bringing our coverage ratio up to 1.44% of loans and 420% of portfolio NPAs. This provision was model-driven and not related to credit deterioration as our credit metrics actually improved once again this quarter. Our net charge-off ratio improved to just 23 basis points, and our NPA ratio, excluding Ginnie Maes, improved to 27 basis points.

On the balance sheet side, assets declined slightly as expected this quarter to $25.7 billion from $25.8 billion last quarter. Deposits are, as I should say, core deposits increased $147 million, while loans declined by $271 million, all within the mortgage warehouse lines as we had expected and discussed last quarter. We're still lending but we are being more discerning and deliberate with our pricing and structure. And because of these shifts, our loan-to-deposit ratio actually improved to 98% and our loans plus securities deposits improved to 106%. Brokered CDs remained relatively flat and we successfully reduced our FHLB advances by $325 million this quarter.

We continue to be well capitalized and feel comfortable with our capital and our dividend levels. We also announced yesterday the approval of another $100 million share repurchase program through October of next year. We have a strong balance sheet with diversified earning assets in some of the strongest markets in the Southeast, along with a healthy allowance for credit losses to absorb potential economic challenges. We remain focused on core profitability and balance sheet management and this focus includes core deposit growth, controlled asset growth, stable margin, expense control and tangible book value growth. I'm extremely proud of our team and the financial results for the quarter and I'd be remiss if I didn't take time on today's call to thank each and every one of our teammates for their contribution to our success.

With that, I'll turn it over to Nicole to discuss our financial results in more detail.

N
Nicole Stokes
executive

Great. Thank you, Palmer. As we mentioned, for the third quarter, we're reporting net income of $80.1 million or $1.16 per diluted share. Our return on assets was 1.25%. And on a pre-provision pretax basis, our PPNR ROA was just over 2%. Our return on tangible common equity improved to 14.35% for the quarter. We ended the quarter with tangible book value of $32.38, that's an increase of $0.96 or 12.2% annualized. Our tangible common equity ratio, as we mentioned, increased to 9.11% at the end of the quarter compared to 8.80% at the end of last quarter. We've said for several quarters or actually probably several years that our capital goal was to get to 9% TCE and we finally did it.

On the revenue side of things, our interest income continues to increase. We were up about $8.6 million this quarter to $330.6 million. But again, due to rising deposit costs, our net interest income declined slightly, just about $1.8 million, down to $207.8 million for the quarter. Our margin came in higher than anticipated at 3.54%, down just 6 basis points than the 3.60% reported last quarter. All of this compression was really due to money market rate and that [ debt ] catch up on money market rate. And our year-to-date margin remained strong at 3.63%. That's only 4 basis points of compression from last year's 3.67% for the first 9 months.

We're really encouraged by the fact that the pace of rising deposit costs slowed significantly in the third quarter as interest-bearing deposit costs only increased 33 basis points this quarter, while last quarter, it has increased 82 basis points. So we see that slowing. We continue to be very close to asset liability sensitive neutral, which positions us well for the next Fed decision, whatever that, whether that's a move or not. We've updated the interest rate sensitivity information on our presentation, Slide 11. Noninterest income decreased about $4.2 million for the quarter. That was all in the mortgage division. That was about a 11% decline in mortgage revenue. Production declined slightly to about $1.2 billion and the gain on sale margin came in right at 2.15%.

And then I saved the best for last, that's expense control and efficiency ratio. Total noninterest expense decreased $7 million this quarter, almost all in the banking division and that is highlighted on Page 10 of the investor presentation. This drove our adjusted efficiency ratio down to an impressive 52.02% for the quarter, an improvement from the 53.41% last quarter. I wanted to take just a minute to talk about expense control. It's not an initiative around here. It really is a discipline and a part of our culture. We continuously look for ways to be more efficient and we make sure that, that next dollar spent is spent in the right way.

As an example, if you look at our head count, we've reduced our head count by 3.5% over the past year through diligent analysis and the rehiring and staffing model and without announcing major layoffs and without disruption to morale. I want to close by reiterating how focused we are on discipline and core fundamentals as we look forward to 2024 and beyond.

And with that, I'm going to turn the call back over to Jamie for any questions from the group. And we really appreciate everyone's time today.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we'll begin that question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question today comes from Brady Gailey from KBW.

B
Brady Gailey
analyst

So the net interest margin has really held in quite well, especially relative to peers. Maybe just talk about how you're thinking about the margin into the fourth quarter and maybe into 2024 and maybe hit on noninterest-bearing, noninterest-bearing deposits were down just a little bit. 32% is still a great level but how does that factor in the -- how you're thinking about the margin?

N
Nicole Stokes
executive

Sure. Great. No, I think those are all tied together for sure. So first, kind of I'll talk about the margin. And as I mentioned then in my prepared remarks that the whole 6 basis points of compression really was money market, the change in money markets. We had a positive move from our deposit mix, for the first time this quarter that actually was about 2 basis points up. But then we had some asset sensitivity, kind of some one-off compression from some -- sounds counterintuitive. But by paying off the home loan bank advances, you lose the dividend and the kind of some one-offs there that kind of offset that positive move from the deposit mix that was kind of overshadowed by that money market data.

So when I think about margin going forward, I'm very cautious to say that we've troughed. I know a couple of banks have said that they feel like we troughed. I'm not ready to declare victory yet and I'm not ready to say that we troughed. But certainly a 6-basis point compression compared to what we thought. We were pretty excited about that. And I think really, when I think about margin guidance, there's probably 3 components. Typically, when we give margin guidance, we look at our model and we give very specific. And I think there are some behavioral issues this right now that affect margin more so than what the asset liability model does. And the first one being kind of that noninterest-bearing mix and how much of our noninterest-bearing moves to interest-bearing.

And we certainly saw that slow this quarter. We were 33% last quarter, 32% this quarter. When you kind of go back and you look post-Fidelity, pre-COVID, where were we? And I went back and pulled those numbers, in September of '19, we were at 29.9%. December of '19, we were at 29.9% and then March of 2020, we were at 30.5%. So I really do feel like somewhere between the 30% and the 32%, 33% is where we stabilize.

I kind of said that now a quarter or two and I still believe that to be true seeing the customer behavior that we saw this quarter.

And then the second part of margin guidance going forward would really be that incremental growth. When we've said that we're going to use core deposit growth as the governor for loan growth, so that really comes down to the question of, if we grow core deposits, can we grow 30% of our -- or 32% of our core deposit growth be in noninterest bearing next year. We think we can. But obviously, that can tweak that mix down by somewhere in that 29% to 30%, whereas we'd like to keep it more in that 30% to 32%.

And then the third piece that's affecting margin is, what I would call, competitive behavior. And we've seen that certainly stabilize. We've seen some of the erratic high customer deposits or competitor deposit rates kind of stabilize. So having said all that, the summary version is, I would expect a little bit more compression. I think I said last quarter and I still agree with it, that if we can come out of this cycle above the [ 350 ], that would be a huge victory. And we still have a very strong margin compared to peers.

H
H. Proctor
executive

And Brady, to your question on noninterest-bearing, there's 2 sides of the equation. One is retention of existing accounts. And then the other is focusing your efforts on attracting new deposits, noninterest-bearing deposits. So when you look at our -- whether it's our incentive plans, our treasury management efforts or our commercial banking efforts, those all are and have been centered around that. So I think that helps mitigate some of the additional downside that we are not feeling that some others are at this point.

B
Brady Gailey
analyst

Okay. All right. And then moving onto expenses. I mean, Nicole, as you said great expense control with expenses down linked quarter in 3Q. How are you thinking about expense creep as we head into 4Q and next year?

N
Nicole Stokes
executive

Yes. So there is -- I mean, I think everybody saw that in the presentation that we did, as part of the expense control or the reduction in expenses was actually a gain on a piece of OREO. That was about $1.5 million credit or benefit that I don't necessarily expect going forward.

And so I think that has to be added back almost immediately. And so if you look at kind of our year-to-date run rate of about $429 million, if you annualize that, that kind of comes [indiscernible] to about $574 million. That leaves about 145 -- $144.5 million, $145 million for the fourth quarter. I think that's right where consensus has us and I think that's about right. And then if you take that, I think I've guided a 3% to 5% increase in expenses, excluding mortgage, for next year. So if you assume mortgage production is flat and you assume mortgage expenses are flat and you kind of take that out, kind of a 3% growth on that is about $590 million. That's right in line with current consensus.

So I think my messaging on expenses has been well received or understood in everybody's model and kind of that 3% to 5% expense growth that I mentioned last quarter, I still think that's kind of 3% to 4% is about right. If you want to break it down a little bit further, I think salaries and benefits is probably 3% to 5%. Everything else is 2%. So that kind of blends out to be about a 3% total increase in expenses next year, which I think is in line with current consensus.

B
Brady Gailey
analyst

All right. That's helpful. And then finally for me, you hit the 9% plus TCE, the stock is cheap at [indiscernible] tangible book value, you've repurchased a little bit of stock year-to-date but not a ton. I mean should we think about the buybacks to come in a little more active here? Or do you think you're still in capital growth mode?

H
H. Proctor
executive

Well, I would tell you that we kind of remain opportunistic in that regard and that's why we've renewed the program, obviously. And if and when we feel appropriate, we will certainly take advantage of that.

Operator

Our next question comes from Casey Whitman from Piper Sandler.

C
Casey Whitman
analyst

Okay. So Palmer, I appreciate that there was some seasonality this quarter in just the warehouse balances but can you speak to sort of how you're seeing loan growth in this environment? Do you see that slowing a bit? Just an update as to where you see growth over the next year or so?

H
H. Proctor
executive

Yes, Casey, I think with all banks, what you've heard is just kind of, as I mentioned earlier, people just being more discerning. And then obviously, the opportunity that the industry has right now is to really take advantage of the upside of rates on the asset side of the balance sheet due to the rapid increase we see on the liability side. So we're kind of utilizing this time to reprice accordingly to hold margin and build margin as we go forward. And I think that we're being far more selective in our credits.

Obviously, we've said from the very beginning that we're not going to allow our loan growth to outpace our deposit growth and that discipline will continue. And obviously, when you take that approach, it will slow down growth. But what it does allow you to do is, the growth you have is, in my opinion, it's better priced. It's stronger credits even in an environment like today and that's kind of the mode that we'll continue with as we go forward. Mortgage volume will obviously -- we pulled back intentionally on CRE. And you've seen that loan deposit ratio flowing back. So I think you'll continue to see that discipline for the remainder of the year.

C
Casey Whitman
analyst

Okay. Are there particular markets that you're in, where you're seeing more opportunities or less opportunities than others? Or is it pretty broad-based across your footprint?

H
H. Proctor
executive

Well, for us, Atlanta has always been a consistent performer and then we're seeing a lot of opportunities in our Florida markets, too and the Carolinas. And so if you looked at the opportunity, I'd tell you that probably Tampa and Jacksonville are real bright spots for us in addition to certain pockets of the Carolinas. And then Atlanta has always been kind of our stable provider of a lot of activity. So I think those are probably the primary opportunities as we look out and look forward.

C
Casey Whitman
analyst

Okay. Just 1 credit question. Can you just talk about what you're seeing in that watch list bucket? It looks like there's some assisted living in there. Is there any office in there? Just sort of can you give us any color on the watch list, which I appreciate didn't move much this quarter but maybe you can give us something helpful.

J
Jon Edwards
executive

Yes. We did add that just to see if that would help to kind of give you a little bit. I mean 85% of the watch list is in those 6 categories there. So as far as office is concerned, specifically, there's really just 1 nonowner occupant credit. It's on the watch list in the nonaccrual bucket right now, it's $3.6 million. So it's not really anything to speak of. And those being the top 5 or 6 that we noted there, you didn't see an office category because it's not on there.

So the ALF has been -- and I think I mentioned it, maybe starting in the first of the year, is, we had some downgrades in that category. And so we've got really kind of 2 larger deals on there that are on the watch list, at least 1 of which I have pretty good confidence it might correct itself, this or be paid off actually this quarter. But yes, we've had a little bit of stress on the ALF side and that -- but that watch list for ALF has kind of been there now for about 9 months or so.

Operator

Our next question comes from Chris Marinac from Janney Montgomery Scott.

C
Christopher Marinac
analyst

Wanted to go a little deeper on the C&I net charge-offs. And first, just wanted to clarify, can we adjust those charge-offs for the 1 equipment finance loan that was called out? And then what would be, I guess, a good run rate for general C&I losses going forward? .

J
Jon Edwards
executive

Well, the C&I losses, that is where the equipment finance loans roll up. So pretty much everything that you see in there is related to the equipment finance group. And to say 1 loan, if you took that away from the slide deck, Chris, that's probably my fault because it was a group of pre-acquisition loans, the extraordinary items were a group of pre-acquisition NPAs that we had acquired at the merger.

So we have determined that -- we had kind of reached a bit of our end on the near-term collections on some of those and so we went ahead and took the losses on that this quarter. It was about $3.2 million. So the run rate for the rest of equipment finance and really the C&I was about [ mid-8s ]. And that is consistent pretty much with what the year has been like so far in '23. I think that is, as we've talked about before, a bit on the high side as far as the long-term average for the equipment group. And so I do expect that to kind of add back some as we go into next year.

C
Christopher Marinac
analyst

Great, Jon. That's very helpful. And is the equipment finance group growing at a similar pace as the last few quarters? Or would you look for that pace to change in the next year?

J
Jon Edwards
executive

Well, it has moderated some in the last couple of quarters. As Palmer said, it's -- big picture is that we're not going to let the loans outpace deposits. And so that is across the board. The decline in loans that happened during the quarter, especially in the mortgage warehouse lines, kind of took the denominator down. So it looks like that the portfolio is a greater percentage of the whole now and because it's up to 6% but that's really just sort of end-of-period numbering. It's still not outpacing the growth of the whole portfolio when you look at it a little bit better than just that one day in time. So it's going to be pretty much the same kind of growth that we see in the whole portfolio.

H
H. Proctor
executive

Yes, Chris. We're not looking to accelerate that growth, if that's your question, in that particular sector, above and beyond what it already is.

C
Christopher Marinac
analyst

Okay. Great. And then just one -- quick expense question. As you think about expenses next year, should we see a handful of new branches, as you continue to look for new deposits?

H
H. Proctor
executive

We're all about branch optimization and a lot of that has to do not necessarily with closing branches or new branches but we may repurpose some in terms of relocating to better locations. And so it will be more optimization in that regard. There are a couple of markets where we clearly have a void in branching. Our Tampa market, for instance, we need a little more presence there. But other than 1 or 2 branches, I wouldn't expect much in that regard.

Operator

Our next question comes from Kevin Fitzsimmons from D.A. Davidson.

K
Kevin Fitzsimmons
analyst

Good morning, everyone.

N
Nicole Stokes
executive

Good morning, Kevin.

K
Kevin Fitzsimmons
analyst

Just -- it seems like -- I don't know if it's 3 or 4 quarters. It seems like a number of quarters in a row, you guys have -- it seems like from our vantage point, have been deliberately or proactively building the reserve, so sacrificing some of your near-term earnings to do that. And I'm just curious what is your outlook. I know there is the model and there is the inputs to the model but there's also -- from a top level point of view where you want to take that ultimately. And I'm just curious how many -- if things kind of stay where they are right now and we don't have any massive shift, do we have more quarters of building the reserve ahead of us? Or are you getting close to a point where you're getting comfortable with what you see out there today?

J
Jon Edwards
executive

Well, Kevin, I would say that as you pointed out that it is model driven. And therefore, we are following the forecast models that we look at. The part of the answer, I think, was found in the third quarter actually because the provision was half or thereabouts, what it was in the second quarter. So that and of itself tells you that the forecasts were moderating the level of change, which is what really creates reserve one way or the other, is slowing.

So it seems like that you want to kind of envision a hockey stick, maybe that's the way it sort of began to look in the third quarter. So I think that -- I wouldn't anticipate that it would be a -- back to the level it was in the early part of the year given that kind of forecast model. But things in the world are changing and things do have a tendency to change. But as it stands right now, I would anticipate that we're kind of moderating from the high levels early in the year.

K
Kevin Fitzsimmons
analyst

Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then just a follow-up on the margin. I totally understand, Nicole, you're not wanting to declare victory on calling a trough. But if we say we're getting close to that, maybe we have some moderating pace of compression, maybe call it the next quarter or two. As we look into '24, do we hit a point in early '24 in your view, where the fixed asset repricing should start to outpace the rising deposit costs. And I know a lot of that hinges on does that noninterest-bearing shift really slow down and come to a halt. But assuming that's slowing also, do we anticipate kind of modest margin compression maybe starting in the second quarter through '24?

N
Nicole Stokes
executive

So I would guide that there is some stabilization absolutely. And I think usually there's some mild compression after second quarter. I'm not necessarily saying that there's more compression coming but there may not be a lot of expansion coming. So I think it stabilizes and kind of in that higher for longer mentality, it stabilizes.

And then again, a lot of that has to do with competitors. And if there's some sort of liquidity issue that all of a sudden starts driving up -- not liquidity issue with us but liquidity issue in the market or with other competitors that causes people to start paying up for those deposits. We could certainly see the trickle effect. But from a repricing standpoint, we've got 36% of our loans that reprice, that too within the next 12 months. And so there's definitely some upward movement on the asset side that should help. I've just been very hesitant because of what we're seeing on the deposit side and some erratic competition.

K
Kevin Fitzsimmons
analyst

Okay. But it sounds like you're saying that's really going to serve to help keep it stable, not necessarily outpace it over the course of '24. Is that fair?

N
Nicole Stokes
executive

Yes, that is fair and that is absolutely the goal and the target.

K
Kevin Fitzsimmons
analyst

Okay. Great. And I'm just -- Palmer, just throwing one out there. I know there hasn't been a lot of M&A activity. And obviously, you guys are not in this situation that a lot of banks are in terms of having their bond portfolios quite underwater and that's slowing down activity. But how -- what's your view on that in terms of pace of conversations, your interest, your appetite of anything happening over the next year or two?

H
H. Proctor
executive

Yes. I think over the next year or two, you're going to see a wave of consolidation. We've had a couple of deals announced just recently, as you know, in the industry. And I think you'll continue to see that accelerate, when you look at the industry going forward, I do think -- I don't even like to say higher for longer. I just think rates will stay where they are because they really aren't that high right now relative to historical measures. And I think we all just need to kind of adapt and adjust to that.

But what that means is a lot of banks are going to remain under pressure for the earnings. They don't have the core deposit base, so they don't have the diversification in their asset generation and so it's going to create a hardship. So I think there are going to be more and more people looking to partner together. And so as we see that and assuming they can get regulatory approval, which right now is a big timing issue and a big if all the way around, I think aside from that, there should be a lot of activity taking place over the next -- as we look out into next year and into the following year.

Operator

Our next question comes from Russell Gunther from Stephens.

R
Russell Elliott Gunther
analyst

Just a quick one at this point on the mortgage outlook. So it looks like the MBA forecast is pretty optimistic for next year from an origination volume perspective. It would be helpful to get your guidance -- thoughts, in terms of what you're seeing, both on originations and gain on sale as you look out into next quarter in '24.

H
H. Proctor
executive

Yes. We're pleased to say that -- when you look at the gain on sale margin, it's stabilized. And so -- because for a while there, we, like many others started to see deterioration in that margin and it seems to have stabilized. When you look at production, say, last quarter versus this quarter, second quarter, we were at $1.3 billion. This quarter, we're at $1.175 billion. And I think that's kind of a good run rate for us as we look out. There is -- keep in mind, as we said last time, seasonality in this space. I think it's going back to historical seasonality type activity as opposed to the mad pandemic rush we had and some of the other refi crazes.

But that being said, we'll get our fair share of the volume. We feel comfortable with our current run rate. And more importantly, we are comfortable with our ability to adjust the expenses accordingly. The biggest falloff we saw, obviously, this quarter, as we had predicted, was in the warehouse space. But in terms of retail origination, I think there's going to be some opportunities there, especially if we start seeing some improvement in rates towards the end of next year. We always look for tailwinds as much as we do for headwinds. And I think that's one where we're very well positioned to take advantage of that. So I would tell you that I think our current run rate is a pretty good barometer for what we see as we go into fourth quarter and next year aside from just normal seasonality.

R
Russell Elliott Gunther
analyst

I appreciate that, Palmer. And you touched on the expense side of things, which really was my follow-up. So just curious if the earlier conversation around expenses considered any further reduction in the mortgage vertical for '24?

H
H. Proctor
executive

No. I think we've got that position well off now that -- you have a poor run rate of overhead and expenses, you have to operate the business and we're there. What we've got is the ability to scale and it's a very scalable business if you make sure you scale on both sides going up and coming down and our management team has done an excellent job of doing that. And I think has positioned us well to be able to, as I said, take advantage of the tailwinds and obviously, deal with any headwinds that come. So just know and I think you do, that we're pretty disciplined in that regard and consequential in that regard, if we see pullback in revenue, then you're going to see a pullback in expenses.

Operator

And ladies and gentlemen, our final question today comes from Brandon King from Truist Securities.

B
Brandon King
analyst

Good morning. So loan, you saw a nice increase in the quarter despite a slowing of loan growth. So Nicole, could you potentially quantify kind of your expectations for what asset yields could do over the next couple of quarters?

N
Nicole Stokes
executive

Sure. So I'll say that we've got about [ $5.4 million ] of our loans that are going to reprice in the next 3 months or less. And that was at like a 7.7%. So there's definitely some room for that to move up. And then kind of in the 3- to 12-month window, we've got another [ $1.9 billion ] and that's kind of at an 8%, 8.5%. So there's a little bit of room there. And then that's really kind of over the next 4 quarters where you can see some of that coming in on the asset side that should certainly help offset the deposit side, which is why kind of that margin guidance is outside of competition and that noninterest-bearing move mix change, we really should kind of see that margin stabilizing over the next 2 quarters or so. .

B
Brandon King
analyst

Okay. Very helpful. And then on deposits, I know we've talked a lot about the mix change between noninterest-bearing and interest-bearing but what about within interest-bearing? I noticed interest checking were lower quarter-over-quarter. Are you seeing any mix change within your interest-bearing deposit accounts as like people moving to more towards money market or CDs ?

N
Nicole Stokes
executive

No, those have been fairly consistent. And I will say the one thing that we will have coming in, in the fourth quarter is that, that cyclical public funds that comes in kind of in the fourth quarter. We have no reason to think that that's not going to come in again this quarter. That's typically about 15% noninterest-bearing and about 85% interest-bearing, typically all in money marketing now. So you may actually see a little shift in the fourth quarter from a blend there but know that, that's that cyclical money, public fund money that comes in. .

B
Brandon King
analyst

Okay. And how are you thinking about broker deposits from here? Do you have any upcoming maturities? And do you think you can move that down over the next couple of quarters?

N
Nicole Stokes
executive

So we have our brokered CDs and our FHLB advances kind of staggered. And then again, some of that will change kind of temporarily in the fourth quarter and first quarter as we see those public funds come in so that we positioned ourselves well to be able to manage the margin and not have a lot of that excess borrowings or brokered out there. So I think we'll be okay there. We certainly continue to like to look from an ROA and margin perspective, between FHLB advances and brokered CDs, we have ample liquidity, ample availability at both of those places. So we'd like to look at it from kind of an ROA margin perspective is which way we would go if we need it. But potentially in the fourth quarter as those public fund money comes in, you could see some of those pay back down. But just remember this, when it comes back in the second quarter, when that public fund money runs back out, we'll kind of offset that way.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Palmer Proctor, our CEO, for any closing remarks.

H
H. Proctor
executive

Great. Thank you very much and I'd like to thank everyone again for listening to our third quarter earnings call. Our focus, as you can tell, remains on the things that we can control, which include core profitability, capital growth and our controlled asset growth. And this is what continues to position us well for the future. So thank you for your time and your interest in Ameris Bank.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now concluded. We thank you for joining today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.