Gazprom PAO
MOEX:GAZP
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one GAZP stock under the Base Case scenario is 298.5 RUB. Compared to the current market price of 138.09 RUB, Gazprom PAO is Undervalued by 54%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
Gazprom PAO
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Fundamental Analysis
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Gazprom PAO stands as a colossal entity in the global energy landscape, deeply woven into the fabric of Russia’s economy and governance. Founded in 1989, the company has burgeoned into the world’s largest producer of natural gas and a significant player in the oil sector, with operations extending far beyond Russian borders. Gazprom's vast reserves, extensive pipeline network—spanning thousands of kilometers—and strong partnerships with multiple nations empower it to supply energy to key markets across Europe and Asia. The company’s strategic importance is underscored by its role as a state-controlled behemoth, which often intertwines its business initiatives with national interests, making...
Gazprom PAO stands as a colossal entity in the global energy landscape, deeply woven into the fabric of Russia’s economy and governance. Founded in 1989, the company has burgeoned into the world’s largest producer of natural gas and a significant player in the oil sector, with operations extending far beyond Russian borders. Gazprom's vast reserves, extensive pipeline network—spanning thousands of kilometers—and strong partnerships with multiple nations empower it to supply energy to key markets across Europe and Asia. The company’s strategic importance is underscored by its role as a state-controlled behemoth, which often intertwines its business initiatives with national interests, making it not just a corporate powerhouse, but also a pivotal tool of foreign energy policy.
For investors, Gazprom represents both substantial opportunities and notable risks. While its vast resources and infrastructure offer the potential for lucrative returns, particularly given the growing global demand for energy, its heavy reliance on the European market raises concerns amid fluctuating geopolitical landscapes and environmental shifts towards renewable energy sources. Moreover, the regulatory environment, heavily influenced by Russian government policies and international sanctions, can lead to volatility in its stock performance. However, Gazprom's consistent dividends and its pivotal role in energy security make it an intriguing prospect for investors seeking exposure to the energy sector, particularly in times of rising energy prices and economic recovery.
Gazprom PAO, the Russian multinational energy corporation, is one of the largest producers and exporters of natural gas in the world. Its core business segments can be broadly categorized as follows:
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Gas Production: This segment involves the exploration, extraction, and production of natural gas. Gazprom is heavily involved in developing new gas fields and maintaining existing ones, ensuring a steady supply for both domestic and international markets.
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Gas Transportation: Gazprom operates an extensive network of gas pipelines for the transportation of natural gas across Russia and to various markets in Europe and Asia. This segment includes the maintenance and operation of its vast infrastructure, which is critical for delivering gas to consumers.
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Gas Storage: Gazprom manages numerous underground gas storage facilities that help to regulate the supply of gas throughout the year and during peak demand periods. This segment plays a key role in ensuring energy security for the consumers and optimizing the supply chain.
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Gas Marketing and Distribution: This segment encompasses the sale and distribution of natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. Gazprom markets gas both in Russia and abroad, leveraging its strategic position as a key supplier in Europe and other regions.
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Oil Production: Although primarily focused on natural gas, Gazprom also engages in oil production and refining. This segment contributes to the company's diversification and offers additional revenue streams.
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Electricity Generation and Heat Production: Gazprom is involved in the production of electricity and heat, often utilizing natural gas as a primary fuel source. This segment complements its core gas business and is critical for diversification.
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Innovative and Technology Development: Gazprom invests in research and development to improve its operational efficiency and to explore alternative energy sources. This segment reflects its commitment to innovation and sustainability.
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International Projects: Gazprom is also actively involved in various international projects, including joint ventures, partnerships, and investments in gas and oil exploration and production abroad.
By integrating these segments, Gazprom maintains its position as a global leader in the energy market while adapting to changing economic and geopolitical landscapes.
Gazprom PAO, as one of the largest natural gas companies in the world, holds several unique competitive advantages over its rivals. Here are the key factors:
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Extensive Resource Base: Gazprom has access to vast natural gas reserves, particularly in Siberia and the Arctic. This ensures a stable supply and the ability to leverage economies of scale in production.
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Integrated Operations: The company operates across the entire value chain, from exploration and production to transmission, storage, and distribution. This vertical integration allows Gazprom to optimize costs and maintain control over supply.
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Infrastructure Ownership: Gazprom owns and operates an extensive pipeline network, including the infamous Nord Stream and Turkish Stream pipelines. This infrastructure gives Gazprom a strategic advantage in transporting gas to key markets in Europe and Asia, reducing dependency on third parties.
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Market Position in Europe: Gazprom is a major supplier of natural gas to Europe, which remains heavily reliant on its gas imports. Its strong relationships with key European countries and companies create barriers for competitors.
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Strategic Alliances and Partnerships: The company has formed strategic partnerships with other state-owned enterprises and international firms, further solidifying its market position and expanding its reach.
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State Backing: As a state-controlled entity, Gazprom benefits from government support, including favorable regulations and political influence. This can provide an edge in securing contracts and navigating geopolitical challenges.
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Technological Expertise: Gazprom invests in technology, particularly in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector, which allows for more flexible supply options and adaptation to changing market demands.
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Long-term Contracts: The company has established long-term supply contracts, particularly in Europe, which provide steady revenue streams and create stable relationships with buyers.
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Market Knowledge and Experience: With decades of operation in the gas industry, Gazprom possesses deep market knowledge and expertise, helping it to navigate complex market dynamics effectively.
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Regulatory Environment: Operating within a unique regulatory framework in Russia, Gazprom is often able to respond to internal policy changes in ways that foreign competitors cannot.
These competitive advantages position Gazprom as a formidable player in the global natural gas market, allowing it to maintain a dominant position despite external pressures and competition.
Gazprom PAO, as one of the world's largest energy companies, faces a variety of risks and challenges that could impact its operations and financial performance in the near future. Here are some key considerations:
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Geopolitical Risks: Given that Gazprom is heavily involved in gas supply to Europe and other regions, geopolitical tensions, such as sanctions or political disputes, can significantly affect its operations and exports. The ongoing situation in Ukraine and relations with the EU and the U.S. are critical to monitor.
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Regulatory Environment: Changes in regulations, particularly in the EU regarding energy transition and climate policies, could impose stricter emissions standards or limit gas use, pushing Gazprom to adapt its operations and strategy, potentially at a significant cost.
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Global Energy Transition: The global shift towards renewable energy sources and decarbonization efforts poses a long-term risk to Gazprom's business model, which is heavily reliant on fossil fuels. The company must find ways to adapt to this changing landscape.
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Market Competition: Increased competition from alternative energy suppliers and other gas producers can pressure Gazprom’s market share and pricing power, particularly in Europe where there is an emphasis on energy diversification.
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Economic Conditions: Global economic slowdowns or recessions can reduce energy demand, impacting Gazprom's sales and profitability. Fluctuating oil and gas prices are also a concern, as they can be volatile and heavily influence revenues.
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Technology and Infrastructure: Investments in modernizing technology and infrastructure are essential for maintaining efficiency and competitiveness. However, high capital expenditures and the need for ongoing innovation create financial pressure.
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Environmental Concerns: As a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, Gazprom faces increasing scrutiny and pressure from environmental groups, which could lead to reputational risks and potential regulatory challenges.
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Supply Chain Vulnerabilities: Disruptions in the supply chain, whether due to natural disasters, political instability, or other factors, can affect production and delivery capabilities, impacting overall performance.
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Internal Governance Issues: Corporate governance and potential corruption issues can lead to operational inefficiencies or reputational damage, affecting investor confidence and stakeholder relations.
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Natural Resource Depletion: Over time, the depletion of easily accessible gas reserves could result in higher production costs or necessitate investments in more challenging extraction projects.
Monitoring these risks closely and implementing strategic responses will be crucial for Gazprom as it navigates the complexities of the global energy market.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Gazprom PAO
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Gazprom PAO
Current Assets | 4.4T |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 669.8B |
Receivables | 1.1T |
Other Current Assets | 2.6T |
Non-Current Assets | 24.9T |
Long-Term Investments | 4T |
PP&E | 19.6T |
Intangibles | 138.8B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 1.2T |
Current Liabilities | 3.9T |
Accounts Payable | 2.2T |
Accrued Liabilities | 584.7B |
Other Current Liabilities | 1.1T |
Non-Current Liabilities | 8.7T |
Long-Term Debt | 5.4T |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 3.3T |
Earnings Waterfall
Gazprom PAO
Revenue
|
10.9T
RUB
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Cost of Revenue
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-1.9T
RUB
|
Gross Profit
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9T
RUB
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Operating Expenses
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-7.4T
RUB
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Operating Income
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1.5T
RUB
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Other Expenses
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-1.8T
RUB
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Net Income
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-239.4B
RUB
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
Gazprom PAO
RUB | |
Free Cash Flow | RUB |
GAZP Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Gazprom PAO's profitability score is 52/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Gazprom PAO's profitability score is 52/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
GAZP Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Gazprom PAO's solvency score is 42/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Gazprom PAO's solvency score is 42/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
GAZP Price Targets Summary
Gazprom PAO
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for GAZP is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
Country
Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
Gazprom PJSC is a global energy company. The firm's principal activities include exploration and production of gas; transportation of gas; sales of gas within the Russian Federation and abroad; gas storage; production of crude oil and gas condensate; processing of oil, gas condensate and other hydrocarbons, and sales of refined products, and electric and heat energy generation and sales. The firm's segments include Production of gas, Transportation, Distribution of gas, Gas storage, Production of crude oil and gas condensate, Refining, Electric and heat energy generation and sales, and Other. The Production of gas segment is engaged in the exploration and production of gas. The Transportation segment is engaged in the transportation of gas. The Distribution of gas segment is engaged in the sales of gas within the Russian Federation and abroad. The Gas storage segment is engaged in the storage of extracted and purchased gas in underground gas storages.
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The intrinsic value of one GAZP stock under the Base Case scenario is 298.5 RUB.
Compared to the current market price of 138.09 RUB, Gazprom PAO is Undervalued by 54%.