Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one TRN stock under the Base Case scenario is 7.72 EUR. Compared to the current market price of 7.97 EUR, Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA is Overvalued by 3%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
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Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA
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Fundamental Analysis
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Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA
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Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA is Italy's leading electricity transmission operator, playing a crucial role in the backbone of the nation's energy infrastructure. Established in the early 2000s, Terna has steadily evolved into a reliable custodian of the electricity grid, managing over 74,000 kilometers of high-voltage lines that serve as the arteries for electricity distribution. With a commitment to sustainability and innovation, the company is at the forefront of Italy’s energy transition, investing heavily in modernizing its grid to accommodate renewable energy sources. This proactive approach not only enhances operational efficiency but also aligns with the global shift towards sust...
Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA is Italy's leading electricity transmission operator, playing a crucial role in the backbone of the nation's energy infrastructure. Established in the early 2000s, Terna has steadily evolved into a reliable custodian of the electricity grid, managing over 74,000 kilometers of high-voltage lines that serve as the arteries for electricity distribution. With a commitment to sustainability and innovation, the company is at the forefront of Italy’s energy transition, investing heavily in modernizing its grid to accommodate renewable energy sources. This proactive approach not only enhances operational efficiency but also aligns with the global shift towards sustainable energy solutions—making Terna not just a vital component of Italy's energy system, but also a potentially lucrative investment for those looking to capitalize on the growing demand for clean energy.
Investors should recognize that Terna's unique positioning is bolstered by its stable regulatory environment and its strong financial performance. The company benefits from a predictable revenue model, as it operates under a regulated framework that guarantees returns on its investments. Terna's strategic focus on expanding interconnected networks and implementing advanced technologies further elevates its competitive edge in the energy sector. As governments worldwide increasingly prioritize energy security and sustainability, Terna stands out as a well-managed entity that promises both capital appreciation and sustainable dividends, making it an attractive option for investors looking to diversify their portfolios in the burgeoning green energy landscape.
Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA, commonly known as Terna, is the operator of the Italian electricity transmission grid. Its core business segments can be outlined as follows:
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Electricity Transmission and Grid Management: This is Terna's primary business segment, where it focuses on the transport of electricity from generation sites to end consumers. The company operates and maintains a high-voltage transmission network, ensuring reliability, safety, and efficiency in electricity supply.
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Grid Infrastructure Development: Terna invests in the expansion and modernization of its transmission infrastructure. This includes constructing new power lines, upgrading existing ones, and implementing smart grid technologies. The aim is to enhance capacity, integrate renewable energy sources, and support energy transition efforts.
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System Services: Terna provides ancillary services that ensure stability and reliability of the electricity system. These services include frequency regulation, voltage control, and balancing of supply and demand. They play a crucial role in maintaining the stability of the grid, especially with the increasing penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources.
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Interconnection Services: The company also engages in facilitating the connection of the Italian grid with neighboring countries. Terna operates several interconnections that facilitate cross-border electricity trading, enhancing energy security and market efficiency.
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Renewable Energy Integration: With the growth of renewable energy in Italy, Terna focuses on integrating these resources into the grid. This involves not only connecting renewable energy plants but also implementing solutions to manage their variable output and ensure grid stability.
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Research and Development (R&D): Terna invests in R&D initiatives to promote innovative technologies and practices in the energy sector. This includes developments in smart grids, energy storage, and digitalization to improve overall operational efficiency.
Overall, Terna's business segments focus on ensuring that electricity is transmitted safely and efficiently while supporting the transition to a more sustainable energy future.
Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA, as Italy's primary electricity transmission system operator, has several unique competitive advantages over its rivals:
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Regulatory Backing: Terna operates under a regulated environment that provides stability and predictability in its business model. As a key infrastructure operator, it benefits from favorable regulatory conditions aimed at ensuring energy security and efficiency across the grid.
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Extensive Network Infrastructure: With one of the most developed electricity transmission networks in Europe, Terna has significant geographical reach and depth. This extensive infrastructure allows for efficient management of electricity flows, integration of renewable energy, and reliable service provision.
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Investment in Innovation: Terna has been proactive in investing in advanced technologies and smart grid systems. This commitment to innovation helps enhance operational efficiency, grid management, and integration of diverse energy sources, positioning it ahead of less technologically advanced competitors.
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Sustainability Focus: Increasing emphasis on sustainability and green energy gives Terna an advantage, particularly as it integrates renewable energy sources into its grid. The company is actively working on projects aimed at reducing carbon emissions and improving environmental impact, aligning with global energy transition goals.
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Strong Financial Position: Terna’s solid financial performance allows it to invest in infrastructure and technology without the same constraints faced by lesser-funded competitors. This financial strength fosters long-term growth and stability.
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Monopoly on Transmission: As the primary operator of the electricity transmission grid in Italy, Terna holds a unique competitive position with a de facto monopoly in its sector, granting it significant market power and the ability to influence tariffs and service standards.
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Diverse Energy Integration: Terna’s ability to manage and integrate a diverse mix of energy sources — from traditional to renewable — fosters resilience against market changes and aligns with increasing energy demands and sustainability initiatives.
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Expertise and Experience: With decades of experience in the industry, Terna possesses considerable expertise in grid management and energy distribution, allowing for more effective decision-making and operational efficiency compared to newer entrants or smaller competitors.
By leveraging these competitive advantages, Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA can navigate market challenges effectively and maintain a leadership position in the energy transmission sector in Italy and Europe.
Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA, as the primary transmission system operator in Italy, faces several risks and challenges that could impact its operations and growth in the near future. Here are some key areas to consider:
1. Regulatory Risks
- Policy Changes: Changes in government policy regarding energy transmission, renewable energy incentives, and environmental regulations could affect operations and profitability.
- Compliance Costs: Increasing regulatory requirements may lead to higher operational costs and the need for investments in compliance measures.
2. Technological Risks
- Infrastructure Vulnerability: Aging infrastructure may pose risks to reliability and efficiency. Investments in modernization and cybersecurity are essential.
- Adaptation to Renewables: The shift towards renewable energy sources introduces complexities. Terna must efficiently integrate intermittent sources like solar and wind into the grid.
3. Market and Economic Conditions
- Energy Demand Fluctuations: Economic downturns or demographic shifts could lead to reduced energy demand, affecting revenue.
- Competition: Although Terna operates in a regulated market, competition from alternative energy providers could impact market share and prices.
4. Environmental Concerns
- Climate Change: Extreme weather events and climate changes threaten the reliability of energy transmission, necessitating updates to resilience strategies.
- Sustainability Goals: Increasing pressure to reduce carbon emissions may require rapid adaptation and investment in greener technologies.
5. Operational Challenges
- Supply Chain Disruptions: Global supply chain issues could impact the procurement of materials necessary for maintenance and expansion projects.
- Skilled Labor Shortages: Attracting and retaining skilled workers, particularly in specialized fields related to energy and technology, could become a challenge.
6. Financial Risks
- Interest Rate Fluctuations: Changes in interest rates could affect borrowing costs for infrastructure projects, impacting capital expenditure plans.
- Investment Risks: Large-scale projects have inherent risks including cost overruns and delays that could impact financial performance.
7. Social Acceptance
- Public Perception: Opposition from local communities to infrastructure projects (like new transmission lines) could lead to delays, increased costs, or project cancellations.
8. Global Energy Trends
- Geopolitical Tensions: Global energy markets and geopolitics can affect energy prices and supply, particularly amidst the shift to more distributed energy resources.
Terna must navigate these challenges proactively to maintain operational excellence, financial stability, and alignment with long-term strategic goals while contributing to Italy's energy transition.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA
Current Assets | 5.1B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 2.5B |
Receivables | 2.4B |
Other Current Assets | 198.4m |
Non-Current Assets | 19.7B |
Long-Term Investments | 368.8m |
PP&E | 18.2B |
Intangibles | 889.8m |
Other Non-Current Assets | 309.4m |
Current Liabilities | 5.5B |
Accounts Payable | 2.7B |
Accrued Liabilities | 170.1m |
Short-Term Debt | 884.4m |
Other Current Liabilities | 1.8B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 12.1B |
Long-Term Debt | 10.8B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 1.3B |
Earnings Waterfall
Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA
Revenue
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5B
EUR
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Cost of Revenue
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-970.4m
EUR
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Gross Profit
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4B
EUR
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Operating Expenses
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-1.7B
EUR
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Operating Income
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2.3B
EUR
|
Other Expenses
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-793.3m
EUR
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Net Income
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1.5B
EUR
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA
EUR | |
Free Cash Flow | EUR |
In Q1 2024, Terna saw a 20.4% rise in revenues to EUR 858 million and a 25.6% increase in EBITDA to EUR 628 million. Net income surged 34% to EUR 268 million. Capital expenditure reached an unprecedented EUR 483 million, up 53% from last year, driving robust grid investments. Despite the increase in debt to EUR 10.6 billion, cash flow was strong, covering most of the CapEx. The company successfully issued bonds totaling EUR 1.7 billion to support its growth strategy and green initiatives. Terna maintains its 2024 guidance, emphasizing its strategic role in Italy's energy transition.
What is Earnings Call?
TRN Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA's profitability score is 57/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA's profitability score is 57/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
TRN Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA's solvency score is 35/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA's solvency score is 35/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
TRN Price Targets Summary
Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TRN is 8.5 EUR with a low forecast of 7.68 EUR and a high forecast of 10.08 EUR.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for TRN is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
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Description
TERNA Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA engages in the grid operation for the transmission of electricity. The company is headquartered in Rome, Roma. The company went IPO on 2004-01-01. The company is an independent grid operator for the transmission of electricity. The company deals with the management of electrical systems through the operation of the grid, efficiency of infrastructures and their maintenance through engineering and management of plants and grid developments. The company ensures a balance of deliveries and withdrawals between the supply of energy and consumption by end users. The firm is diversified into two operating segments. The Core Business includes the development, operation and maintenance of the National Transmission Grid (NTG) in addition to dispatching. The Non-Core Business includes specialized services provided to third parties mainly relating to systems engineering services, the operation and maintenance of high voltage plants and the housing of telecommunications equipment and optic fibre grid maintenance services.
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The intrinsic value of one TRN stock under the Base Case scenario is 7.72 EUR.
Compared to the current market price of 7.97 EUR, Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA is Overvalued by 3%.