Tenaris SA

MIL:TEN

Earnings Call Analysis

Tenaris Reports Lower Sales but Strong Cash Flow and Dividend Increase.

In the third quarter of 2024, Tenaris faced a sales decline, totaling $2.9 billion, a decrease of 10% year-over-year, largely due to diminished prices and demand in key markets. However, EBITDA improved by 6% sequentially to $688 million, maintaining a strong margin of 23.6%. With a robust operating cash flow of $552 million and a net cash position of $4 billion, the company declared a 35% hike in its interim dividend, now at $0.27 per share. Looking forward, it anticipates lower sales in Q4, expected to dip by approximately 7%-8%, before rebounding by 10% in Q1 2025.

Quarterly Performance Overview

In the third quarter of 2024, Tenaris S.A. reported sales of $2.9 billion, showing a decline of 10% year-over-year and a 12% decrease from the previous quarter. The drop in sales can be attributed to lower prices in the Americas, reduced demand in key markets like the U.S.A., Mexico, and Saudi Arabia, along with a decrease in line pipe shipments to Argentina. The average selling prices in its Tubes segment fell by 14% year-over-year and by 2% sequentially. Despite these challenges, the company's EBITDA rose by 6% sequentially to $688 million, primarily recovering from an earlier quarter affected by an extraordinary provision related to an acquisition. The EBITDA margin stabilized at 23.6%, indicating some resilience in operational efficiency.

Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns

Tenaris demonstrated strong cash flow management, generating $552 million in operating cash flow with a capital expenditure of $179 million, leading to a free cash flow of $373 million for the quarter. The company maintained a robust net cash position of $4 billion, facilitating the Board's decision to approve an interim dividend of $0.27 per share, a 35% increase compared to last year's interim dividend. Additionally, a substantial share buyback of $700 million was authorized, expected to be executed over the next five months. This amounts to nearly $2 billion in total returns to shareholders for the current year.

Operational Improvements and Market Positioning

Tenaris has been actively modernizing its industrial facilities, completing extensive plant stoppages and incorporating state-of-the-art technology in steelmaking and automation. Investments in the U.S. steel shop for dust collection modernization are nearing completion, expected to enhance productivity and environmental performance. The company is strengthening relationships with international oil firms, evidenced by recent major awards in complex offshore development projects which will bolster its backlog for 2025 and beyond.

Outlook for Future Growth

Guidance for the upcoming quarters suggests that volume and revenue in the fourth quarter are forecasted to decrease by approximately 7-8% compared to the third quarter. However, a rebound is expected in the first quarter of 2025 with anticipated increases ranging from 10-13%, supported by growth in both volumes and revenues. Margins are expected to stabilize around current levels, maintaining consistency with the latter half of 2024.

Regional Market Insights

In Argentina, economic conditions are showing signs of improvement, which could uplift demand, especially in the Vaca Muerta region. Tenaris has received an order for the first phase of the Vaca Muerta Sur pipeline, enhancing its project pipeline in the region. With oil export plans targeting 1 million barrels per day by 2030, Tenaris is well-positioned to capitalize on these developments. In Brazil, substantial projects for Petrobras and Equinor hold promise for revenue contributions into 2025. However, drilling activities in Colombia and Ecuador remain subdued, with no near-term recovery anticipated.

Strategic Considerations and Future Opportunities

With a clear strategy focusing on competitive advantage rather than diversification, Tenaris is evaluating potential M&A opportunities that align with its operational framework. The company is also observing the effects of the new U.S. administration's policies, which may include tariff adjustments. However, the company maintains a considerable domestic production capacity, which positions it favorably against imports. Looking forward, Tenaris is leveraging its cutting-edge environmental initiatives to differentiate itself in the market, aiming for improved margins post-2025.

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q3

[Operator]

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Third Quarter 2024 Tenaris S.A. Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Giovanni Sardagna. Please go ahead.

[Giovanni Sardagna, executive]

Thank you, Gigi, and welcome to Tenaris 2024 Third Quarter Conference Call. Before we start, I would like to remind you that we will be discussing forward-looking information in the call, and that our actual results may vary from those expressed or implied during this call.

With me on the call today are Paolo Rocca, our Chairman and CEO; Alicia Mondolo, our Chief Financial Officer; Gabriel Podskubka, our Chief Operating Officer; and Luca Zanotti, President of our U.S. operations.

Before passing over the call to Paolo for his opening remarks, I would like to briefly comment our quarterly results. Our sales in the third quarter of 2024 reached $2.9 billion, down 10% compared to those of the previous year, and down 12% sequentially, mainly due to lower prices in the Americas and lower demand in the U.S.A., Mexico and Saudi Arabia, as well as lower line pipe shipments to Argentina.

Average selling prices in our Tubes operating segment decreased 14% compared to the corresponding quarter of last year and 2% sequentially.

Our EBITDA for the quarter was up 6% sequentially to $688 million as the previous quarter was affected by an extraordinary provision recorded for an ongoing litigation related to the acquisition of a participation in Usiminas in 2012.

Without this extraordinary provision in the previous quarter, the EBITDA for the quarter would have declined 16% sequentially. However, our EBITDA margin at 23.6% was only marginally lower compared to the margin recorded last quarter on a comparable basis.

With operating cash flow of $552 million and capital expenditure of $179 million, our free cash flow for the quarter was $373 million. After share buybacks of $182 million, our net cash position amounted to $4 billion at the end of the quarter.

Our Board of Directors approved the payment of an interim dividend of $0.27 per share or $0.54 per ADR to be paid on November 20. The interim dividend is up 35% compared to the interim dividend we paid last year.

In addition to the dividend, the Board of Directors also approved a share buyback of $700 million to be executed within the next 5 months. Now I will ask Paolo to say a few words before we open the call to questions.

[Paolo Rocca, executive]

Thank you, Giovanni, and good morning to all of you. In the third quarter, we successfully carried out our extensive program of plant stoppages. We have now largely concluded an important cycle of investment in the maintenance and modernization of our industrial system, incorporating innovative technology for steelmaking and heating furnaces and further at the automation.

Still ongoing is an investment at our U.S. steel shop to modernize the dust collection system and expand capacity, which will be concluded this month. This investment will contribute to significant improvement in productivity and environmental performance with lower emission. We are confident that we will see the benefit of this investment over time.

We have expanded our relationship with international oil companies and consolidated our positioning in complex offshore project. This is being reflected in a number of recent awards that will support our offshore order backlog for 2025 and 2026.

The Guyana-Suriname basin, where we are already serving ExxonMobil casing requirement under a long-term agreement, [ siphon ] awarded us a line pipe and insulation coating package for the total GranMorgu development, recognizing the benefit of our Tenaris Shawcor integration. In Brazil, we were awarded a riser and flowline package with thermal insulated coatings for Petrobras Búzios 9 development, as well as the conductor casing and super chrome tubing for the Sépia and Atapu projects, which we are currently delivering the export line, the export pipeline, riser and coating for Equinor IOR project.

In West Africa, ExxonMobil awarded us the casing for their Block 15 development in Angola. We also secured the offshore line pipe for Shell Bonga project in Nigeria.

In the United States, where drilling activity has stabilized, OCTG imports are coming down. Import from Thailand have come to a halt after where they were found to have been violating trade rules. For this year, the Korean import quota has been reduced by 50,000 tons, and this will also apply for 2025.

The Pipe Logix index of U.S. OCTG prices has started to rebound with increases over the past 2 months, and we expect that this trend will continue in the coming months.

In Canada, trade action implemented in recent months has limited unfairly traded Chinese OCTG imports. We are being successful in showing the value of our Rig Direct service program by extending the coverage and duration of our service agreement among the larger Canadian operators. This includes Petronas, who awarded us with a 3-year contract for their OCTG requirement in the mounting as they prepare for the startup next March of the LNG Canada project.

In Argentina, economic conditions are improving and investments are starting to move forward in Vaca Muerta, where there are plans to increase oil exports from the country to 1 million-barrels a day before the end of the decade. We were awarded the supply contract and received a down payment for the first phase of the Vaca Muerta Sur oil pipeline, which will connect production in the shale to a new deepwater port at Punta Colorado in Río Negro province.

In the Middle East, while gas drilling activity remained at a stable level, we are seeing some softening in oil drilling activity. In Saudi Arabia, we have just completed deliveries and a special stock replenishment program, and now Aramco is looking to reduce stocks and increase cash flow.

Even if in the third quarter our shipments remain relatively high, this destocking will have an impact on our sales for the fourth quarter.

Our free cash flow remains strongly positive. Even if -- with the transition to the new government, Pemex in Mexico has further delayed payments. Free cash flow has amounted to $1.9 billion in the 9 months, and our net cash position at September 30 amounted to $4 billion. In this situation, our Board of Directors decided to increase our interim dividend by 35% to $0.27 per share and authorized a follow-on share buyback program of around $700 million, using the authority granted at the Annual General Shareholder Assembly in June 2020.

With this interim dividend and extension of our share buyback program, we will return close to $2 billion to our shareholders in this calendar year.

We are now opening for any questions you may have.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Alessandro Pozzi from Mediobanca.

[Alessandro Pozzi, analyst]

I have 3, if I may. The first one is, we've seen the results of the U.S. elections. And I was wondering if you can give us your thoughts on how the new administration could have an impact on your business, could have opportunities for you in the U.S.? Are you thinking about potential -- more protectionist approach with higher tariffs or lower quotas or maybe even on the M&A side, whether potentially now you're looking at maybe acquisitions that may not have been available in the past with the previous administration. And we know that in 2023 the acquisition of Bakken was terminated. So any thoughts around the impact of the new administration? Could that be really helpful.

The second one, if you can just give us maybe your view on what we should think about the share buyback into next year. You just announced the $700 million until March. But I was wondering, beyond March, what sort of, let's say, share buyback program we could envisage? Should we assume, on a steady state, $1.2 billion for next year, let's say, same as last year?

And also, a final question on outlook for the activities in North America. Some of your peers have suggested potential flat, if not down activities coming down the next year, but it feels like you are more constructive for the U.S. next year. And I was wondering if you can give us your thoughts on how we should see activities into 2025?

[Paolo Rocca, executive]

Thank you, Alessandro, for your question. Well, to begin with, you're mentioning the impact of U.S. election. I think it's very early to understand the changes that may be relevant for us. Let me say that one first point is that we reduced the level of uncertainty. At least we know today where we are and everybody in the world, the government of different countries, knows what -- which will be the new government in the U.S. In this sense, we are reducing the level of uncertainty. This is always something positive for -- and constructive for deciding strategy and what will be the action from the part of the company and the different government.

Now in terms of where we see the area that could be of impact. Well, I think, in general, the election of Donald Trump as a President, even if it will materialize, will take a charge on in January. But it's been perceived as positive for the energy sector. We may expect that the policies of the new administration will be favorable for the energy sector in facilitating development oriented to export of gas, and in particular, we may expect some permitting speed up in -- that would allow improved evacuation in different regions.

So in general, I think there is a general perception that the new administration should have a positive impact on investment in the energy sector in the United States.

On -- the second point is on China, the [ organization ] we have a policy of restraining the aggressiveness of the Chinese industrial sector in import into the States. The position on China may reduce the, let's say, the penetration of steel and other materials from China in the United States and maybe in other parts and other regions. In this sense also, we perceive that this maybe something that could have a positive impact for a company like us that are operating in this market.

Third area that is important is the question of the tariffs. This is more uncertain because in the end, we don't know which will be the policy of the new administration in the relation with Mexico or the rest of the world. I think we have to wait until we have a more clear understanding on the setup of the relation and the decision concerning tariffs.

In general, we may expect that the new administration will defend industrial activity in the U.S. and in my view, also in the U.S. MCA because in the end, the repositioning of the supply chain into the Western countries and into the U.S. should have a positive impact for a company like us that are mainly operating within this space. But this is something that we will understand better in the future.

From the point of view of the relation, for instance, something that is also important for us, with Argentina, the new organization should have a positive view and a positive view of the relation with Argentina. From the point of view of Argentina, the election and the new administration is a positive news. There is a relation that could be constructive for supporting the recovery of the Argentinian economy. And in this sense, I think that this should support investment, for instance, in the development of the energy sector in Argentina and will also have an impact like the one that we are seeing just yesterday, in reducing the risk associated with Argentina. The country risk will possibly be reduced by the strong relation that has been established in the past and I think, is possible to influence the relation and the ability of Argentina to have access to an international financial markets.

I think these are the areas in which we are observing and we expect that the change in administration may have a positive impact on a company like Tenaris, that is operating in this environment.

[Alessandro Pozzi, analyst]

And what about potential M&A opportunities in the U.S.?

[Paolo Rocca, executive]

This is also something that we would -- I mean, we need to wait and see all the decisions that gradually the new administration will take and we will see. We have no -- today no hints if there will be a change in policy on the antitrust or in other areas that could be, let's say, introducing changes that may stimulate or be in favor of M&A policy for the company, for Tenaris.

The second point is on the share buy back. What we announced, the decision that has been taken within the authority of the Board. I think that the Board in February -- will again in February and before the general assembly analyze and see how the situation is evolving and will consider the policy for share buyback at that time. We cannot anticipate today which will be the orientation of the Board and eventually of the special assembly. Excluding assembly, that will be needed to expand our share buyback program.

The last point is, the outlook for North America. I understand you are referring to comment of some of other oil service company on the region. I will ask here to Luca, to give us his feeling on the level of activity. I think that also the election in the United States may also have an impact here, but anyway, Luca, back to you.

[Luca Zanotti, executive]

Yes. Thank you, Paolo. Alessandro, so I understand that you're referring to Q1 2025. And if this is the case, here, we need to see that our activity in the U.S. will increase, and this is going to be mainly driven by 3 factors. One, our customers are setting the budgets are going to add a few rigs, I mean, not big things, but they're going to slightly increase. We will complete the rollover of our contracts to the company that have been acquired by our legacy customer. This is another component. And there are a few small operators. They used to be traditionally our legacy customer that went out of activity for a certain period. And now they are -- they have recently returned -- they are returning right now, and we're going to see the effect of them deploying full speed in the first quarter of 2025.

So in terms of activity, we see an increase. And obviously, also in terms of price, we see an increase. As you know, our prices are -- have some lag. So we want to see the increase that we have seen here in the Pipe Logix recently. And I think we're going to see another one going ahead fully reflected into the first quarter of 2025.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Arun Jayaram from JP Morgan Securities, LLC.

[Arun Jayaram, analyst]

Paolo, my first question is maybe a follow-up on implications from the new administration. I wanted to get your thoughts on if the new administration did raise tariffs on imports, so this is a what-if kind of scenario, what would be the impact to Tenaris? And I'm just thinking about if you could give us a sense of how much of North American -- of your North American revenues or volume do you supply with domestic product versus maybe some of the sourcing out of Veracruz or out of Argentina?

[Paolo Rocca, executive]

Thank you, Arun. Well, first of all, we need to understand that the policy that will be adopted in the new administration. I think the new administration has a strong drive in repositioning supply chain out of China. They will consider not necessarily only into the United States, there will be, I imagine, a policy oriented to this repositioning of supply chain that will include also, let's say, consideration for the USMCA, for the American industry in itself, but also for the relation with countries that are within, let's say, the area of influence of the U.S. and the Western countries.

In this sense, I would expect that this will be analyzed carefully and taking into consideration let's say, the existing contractual relation or the existing agreement that are in place.

Now in the case, by the way, of an increase, in general, of the tariff within this space, you have to take into consideration that today will basically -- we are able to produce all what we are selling into the United States. On the capacity that we have installed in the United States, we may complement some specific product for some specific client. But in general, we are -- we have the largest production capability in the United States. So we will be able to react and to serve the market in any scenario in different condition. But as I repeat, I think we need to wait for this policy to be [ written ] and organized in a more specific way before having a clear understanding of it.

In general, I think if the orientation of tariffs is to defend the domestic industry and to promote industrial activity to the States, Tenaris is a company that will be basically favored by this because we have capacity need. And we will be able to supply our clients in the present condition from within.

[Arun Jayaram, analyst]

Great. That's exactly what I wanted to get answered. My follow-up is just thinking about kind of near-term thoughts on kind of volumes and EBITDA margins. It does look like, Paolo, the second half of '24 is matching what you mentioned at the recent Investor Day, but maybe the shape is a little bit different with higher 3Q results versus 4Q. I was wondering if you could give us your thoughts on maybe how EBITDA margins could look in 4Q? And if you had any visibility about trends into the first half of '25?

[Paolo Rocca, executive]

Well, you are right. We are in line with the expectation for the second semester of 2025. Now in the fourth quarter, we will have -- the volume will be slightly lower, something in the region of the mid-teens compared to the third quarter. The same will be basically for the sales. And the EBITDA -- the margin will remain more or less in line with the margin that we had in the third Q.

So as you say, the third quarter will be stronger than the fourth quarter. On average, the semester, the second half will not be far from -- in line with what we anticipated. Now in the first quarter of 2025, we expect to have an increase around in the low teens for volume and revenue and the margin will remain more or less again in line with the second half of 2025 -- 2024, sorry, 2024 in line with this.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Marc Bianchi from TD Cowen.

[Marc Bianchi, analyst]

I was curious to hear some more about the upside you see in Argentina and Mexico. I think I heard you say that there was a pipeline award that you have now for Argentina. Maybe talk to us about when that starts to flow through results. And then just any sense of the magnitude of what kind of increase from those countries could be flowing through to Tenaris?

[Paolo Rocca, executive]

Thank you, Marc. Well, the -- in Argentina, following the changes in the economy are moving in the right direction. Inflation is going down. The deficit is under control. The [ sector ] of the law that is being approved, is introducing changes in the hydrocarbon sector in the labor area. So the transformation is advancing. The country risk is going down substantially. And Argentina is moving in the right direction. Now we are starting to see also investment coming into the energy sector at the pace that is allowed by the need to launch projects and so on. You have you seen also the sales of Exxon asset in Vaca Muerta has taken important step. I mean Exxon decided to assign this to one of the bidders. So now we may expect also that, in this case, there will be projects that start to be developed.

In the case of the pipeline, we received an order for the first phase of the Vaca Muerta Sur. This is the largest pipeline for evacuation of oil. It is the key for opening the door to additional production of oil in Vaca Muerta. This we will start to see, let's say, delivery of this pipeline at the end of the first quarter of 2025 because now we received the advance payment that we start the cycle of buying steel and start producing. So we will start to deliver at the end of the first quarter.

But we also -- I expect that with the different moving parts in the economy and in the energy sector, some new rigs will start to be added in the coming months. And gradually, the capacity of the system will increase to be prepared for the expansion of the evacuation capacity of oil.

I think we will see this during 2025. Rigs may increase, in my view, in the range of 40 or plus rigs compared to what we are today. Possibilities will take, let's say, 2025 to materialize. But gradually, by the end of 2025, we should arrive in Argentina with an increased number of rigs, I expect between 40% or 50% more than what we have today.

[Marc Bianchi, analyst]

That's very good. Yes, and in Mexico?

[Paolo Rocca, executive]

Mexico, the second point concerning Mexico. Mexico is, let's say, the situation we see in Mexico is influenced by the change in the government. We do not know yet how the new administration in Mexico will, let's say, intervene on the energy policy and on the refinancing of Pemex. Probably, I think this quarter has been a very low quarter in terms of activity from Pemex and the rest of the system. There is a, let's say, expectation for the decision that the new government may take in refinancing Pemex, deciding how to promote investment in the energy sector. We are positive in this because we see that the new administration is sending signals that they will promote investment in the energy sector, not only in the oil and gas, but on the -- also in the renewable.

I think we will see the policy to be articulated and give some visibility in the first quarter of 2025.

[Marc Bianchi, analyst]

Okay. Very good. I just had one other. As it relates to the capital return, and I know well, you'll formalize this plan in May, but as we think about your willingness to maybe dip into the cash balance to support capital return. What sort of cash balance does the company need to just run the business because certainly, the current level is much more than you probably need?

[Paolo Rocca, executive]

Well, before getting into this, let me do a correction because I was reviewing the note here. I may be -- before responding to the question of Arun, I was saying that in the fourth quarter, the level -- the volume reduction will be in the level of [ meeting these ]. This is not -- it will be single digit down compared to the third quarter. I don't want to be misunderstood on this. So the single digit down...

[Marc Bianchi, analyst]

Okay, but still double-digit up.

[Paolo Rocca, executive]

Sorry, not in double digits, double digit.

[Giovanni Sardagna, executive]

And double digits up.

[Paolo Rocca, executive]

And it's double digit up in the first quarter of 2025. We would go up [ high single ] -- in the first quarter of 2025, we will go up by around 10% or something [ like this ].

[Marc Bianchi, analyst]

Thank you for that clarification.

[Paolo Rocca, executive]

Yes, sorry for the clarification because I have here. Now on the question of the cash, I think this is up to the shareholder to decide and to the Board to indicate. I think that now when we look at the

$4 billion, and without a visible target for M&A of major operation, it is logical and is rational to proceed in the buyback and increase in dividend. But this is also something that we need to evaluate over time.

I think that at the beginning of -- in 2025, we will have a better understanding of potential opportunity that we may have all around the world in expanding our level of activity, and this will be an important factor to consider, which will be the best capital allocation for Tenaris. I don't think we are now in the position to determine which will be the capital allocation looking ahead, especially in the situation that has so many, let's say, uncertainty in the different areas in which we operate.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Gengaro from Stifel.

[Stephen Gengaro, analyst]

I think two for me. The first, and it gets to kind of cash usages and maybe even the M&A side. When we think about the kind of [ work ] you have done over the last 20 years as far as M&A, right, everything from Maverick on through recent deals, it all seems to be kind of in the same line of business. I'm just curious how you think internally about what -- would you go outside of those product lines at all? And maybe kind of how far outside you'd go from kind of a manufacturing versus service business?

[Paolo Rocca, executive]

Well, when we look at the M&A considering where we can leverage our know-how, our local presence and to our positioning. So -- and usually, we look at these from the point of view of the competitive advantage that we may have or create through M&A. We do not look at this from a point of view of diversification. We look at this from the point of [ also ] competitive advantage that we can create. Ours is not to diversify. This is up to the shareholder. Ours is to maximize the potential and the capability of the company. So that's the approach that we are taking.

And we have limitations sometimes coming from the trust limitation because of the size of our operation or from a risk perception that may be, let's say, different for what we are prepared to take. But these are the criteria we are using to evaluate where to move and how to move.

[Stephen Gengaro, analyst]

Great. And the other question I had at maybe a higher level, but you've alluded to this in the past, and I'm curious what your current thinking is on the EBITDA margin front. You've done a great job over the last couple of years, right, getting margins high and maintaining at a pretty healthy level. Where do you see kind of in -- where do you see kind of margins sort of flowing out on a normalized basis? Like should we think about kind of low to mid-20s as a pretty good normalized run rate? Or how do you think about that?

[Paolo Rocca, executive]

I think that Tenaris is a highly differentiated company. So really, within our realm, which is the realm of oil and gas service company, we are a highly differentiated company. And if you look at how things evolved in the last 20 years, we extended our differentiation, first on product, then on regional deployment, then on service. And this differentiation translates into, let's say, higher margin compared to other companies operating in the same field.

I don't think we ended up our journey in this direction. We are continuously looking on how we can create a competitive advantage also for our client. You see here, for instance, in the acquisition of Shawcor and some of the awards that we received in the last -- during this year. We have been able to build solid relation with our clients, creating value for them, highly differentiation for us. In this sense, if you think the change also in the administration and the -- let's say the position that will be taken about China is also, to my point -- to our point of view is, to some extent, increasing our differentiation. Because [ it allows us ] to focusing and, in some cases, to present to the client offering [ this ] excellence from the point of view of quality, service deployment, also from the point of view of environment.

We are the most low carbon company with the more aggressive plans for decarbonization. We will -- we are now, as you know, we are in construction for the second [ aeolic ] park in Argentina. By the end of '25, we will be 100% renewable in our supply of energy. I mean, we are investing in this. So this differentiation, in our view, should allow us to look for margin that, in my view, should be higher than where we are today.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] At this time I would like to turn the conference back over to Giovanni Sardagna for closing remarks.

[Giovanni Sardagna, executive]

Thank you, Gigi. And well, I think we have another question.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Rodrigo Almeida from Santander.

[Rodrigo Reis de Almeida, analyst]

So I just have a couple of follow-ups here. I think the first one is related to the -- maybe the outlook that we talked about regarding the short term. I then wanted to get an update on the $200 million cost saving project that you guys are working on and whether this is already included in this sort of guidance that we're talking about for fourth quarter and first quarter. And what is the progress of this cost saving progress -- project, sorry?

And then some additional color on South America, where we talked about Argentina a little bit and then we mentioned the project in Brazil, the projects with Petrobras and the project with Equinor as well. How soon could we expect these volumes, especially for [ Araya ] to kick in? And what would be the impact from these projects on your revenues for South America, especially for 2025, I would say, because of [ Araya ], I guess, it's going to come online very soon at some point. I'd be next 2, 3 years?

[Paolo Rocca, executive]

Thank you, Rodrigo. Well, on the first question, we are advancing in our plan. We set the target of the $200 million reduction in our cost. We are advancing in it. We reached first stage of this plan. The second stage will come from the investment we have done in our facility in the last quarter. But we are proceeding in line with our expectation, and we are doing well on this. I expect that this will be materializing around more than 1/3 in this first -- second semester of 2024 and the rest in the first semester of 2025.

Now on the question of the project that we are getting in Argentina and Brazil on [ Araya ] and also in other parts of the world, these are large line pipe projects. I will ask Gabriel to comment on this and when we will be delivering anything in some of this?

[Gabriel Podskubka, executive]

Yes. Thank you, Paolo. Rodrigo, related to some color that you're asking on Latin America, in addition to what Paolo already explained on Argentina and Mexico, let me tell you that, in Brazil, we are proceeding very well with the production and the shipment of [ Araya ] pipeline. These shipments for this project started on last quarter and will be concluded in the second quarter of 2025. So production of the pipe and concrete coating is proceeding favorably. So this is -- will be a positive impact on Brazil.

Regarding the deepwater flow lines riser and insulation coating that Paolo also commented on Búzios 9 deepwater project. This is something that will be delivered into the later part of 2025. So this is also going to be an important contributor of our revenues in offshore Brazil. And there, we have regular call-offs for our contracts of conductors, stainless steel completions as well in Petrobras. So overall, we expect that deepwater Brazil will be an important engine for growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 and into 2025 regarding Brazil.

Then onshore Colombia and Ecuador are areas that have been subdued during 2024. And we don't expect into 2025 any recovery in the drilling activity. In these areas is probably about half of what they used to be a couple of years ago. So these areas, we don't expect any rebound in the short term.

If you go to the Guyana-Suriname Caribbean region, this is a region that is continuously expanding production, especially on the Guyana ExxonMobil development, where we participate with larger [indiscernible] conductors and casing tubulars and also with the insulation coating for the pipeline demand in that area. That continues at a steady state. 6 drilling rigs operating in the area, and that -- this will continue to be the case into 2025. And Paolo commented in the opening remarks about the important award of the pipeline and coating regarding the total new development in Suriname. Then FID -- a new FID that is opening a new basin. This is a pioneer development that we will start delivering the later part into 2025. This is important because it's the first phase, but probably not the last one. And this award is important, as Paolo was saying. It's a combination is a bundle of tubulars and the coating the track record of Shawcor go to Tenaris. And also from the [ tourist ] point of view, this has been a very complicated and sophisticated spec to meet. So it's a testament to our R&D and production capability. So these are -- these offshore awards are going to give us a good visibility of the backlog into 2025 and even some of them into 2026.

[Paolo Rocca, executive]

Yes. Thank you, Gabriel. This let's say, for us, are very important because a confirmation of our ability to get in very complex projects in a differentiated way, building a backlog even if they are for a long, let's say, project that will come to fruition over the long term, are very, very important in -- for our positioning in the complex offshore and for our building the backlog for the long term, which is also very important for us.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Arun Jayaram from JPMorgan Securities, LLC.

[Arun Jayaram, analyst]

Yes. Paulo, sorry to double dip here, but I just wanted to see if we could get a little bit more clarification, just sensing a little bit of confusion from the buy side on your outlook comments for 4Q and 1Q '25. So could you just help us understand what you think the sequential impacts will be to revenue in 4Q and 1Q? And then just trying to think about revenues versus volume in both of those quarters.

[Paolo Rocca, executive]

Yes. Sorry, Arun, that I made -- I gave the wrong indication on the teams and not the [ teams ]. What we expect is that in the fourth quarter, volume and sales will be lower than in the third quarter by, let's say, single digit, around 7%, 8%, something in this range, lower in the 4Q than the third Q. In the first Q in 2025, we expect this to rebound in the range of 10%. We are talking about teens or not teens because of the number. But these are, let's say, estimation that obviously range around what we are [ doing ]. So they are moving together, volume and revenue, and as I was saying, the margin will stay around the same level that we had in the third quarter.

[Arun Jayaram, analyst]

Thank you for clarifying that.

[Paolo Rocca, executive]

It is clear now?

[Arun Jayaram, analyst]

Super clear.

[Operator]

At this time, I would now like to turn the conference back over to Giovanni Sardagna for closing remarks.

[Giovanni Sardagna, executive]

Thank you, Gigi. And if there are no other questions, we would like to thank you for joining us for our call, and we hope to see you soon. Thank you.

[Operator]

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.