Ferrari NV
MIL:RACE
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one RACE stock under the Base Case scenario is 152.31 EUR. Compared to the current market price of 418.2 EUR, Ferrari NV is Overvalued by 64%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
Ferrari NV
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Fundamental Analysis
Economic Moat
Ferrari NV
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Ferrari NV, established in 1939 by Enzo Ferrari, has evolved from a small racing division into one of the most prestigious names in the luxury automotive industry. Renowned for its high-performance sports cars and rich motorsport heritage, Ferrari operates under a business model that emphasizes exclusivity and craftsmanship. The brand's vehicles command premium prices, not only due to their exceptional engineering but also because of their limited production, which maintains a sense of desirability among affluent consumers. As an investor, understanding Ferrari’s clear commitment to innovation and sustainability—evident in its strategic push towards hybrid and electric models—underscores its...
Ferrari NV, established in 1939 by Enzo Ferrari, has evolved from a small racing division into one of the most prestigious names in the luxury automotive industry. Renowned for its high-performance sports cars and rich motorsport heritage, Ferrari operates under a business model that emphasizes exclusivity and craftsmanship. The brand's vehicles command premium prices, not only due to their exceptional engineering but also because of their limited production, which maintains a sense of desirability among affluent consumers. As an investor, understanding Ferrari’s clear commitment to innovation and sustainability—evident in its strategic push towards hybrid and electric models—underscores its potential for long-term growth in an evolving global market.
The company’s financial performance reflects its robust position within the luxury segment, showcasing impressive margins and a loyal customer base. With an emphasis on maintaining high profitability rather than market share, Ferrari has carved a niche that minimizes competition and maximizes brand loyalty. Investors should take note of Ferrari's strong cash flow generation and disciplined capital allocation, which have historically translated into significant returns through dividends and stock buybacks. As the automotive industry shifts towards electrification and digitalization, Ferrari's strategic investments in R&D and its strong brand equity position it well to navigate these changes, making it a strong candidate for those looking to invest in a resilient and iconic brand.
Ferrari NV operates through several core business segments that are crucial to its overall strategy and financial performance. The primary segments include:
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Automobiles and Related Revenue: This is the main segment of Ferrari's business and involves the design, engineering, production, and sale of high-performance luxury sports cars. The brand is renowned for its performance, exclusivity, and design, with models like the Ferrari 488, SF90 Stradale, and various limited-edition models. Revenue in this segment primarily comes from selling vehicles, as well as related services and products like spare parts and accessories.
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Engines: Ferrari also manufactures high-performance engines, some of which are sold to other automotive manufacturers, especially those within the Maserati brand. This segment represents a smaller revenue portion but showcases Ferrari's engineering prowess and extends the brand's high-performance reputation.
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Brand and Licensing: Ferrari has a significant focus on brand management and licensing. This includes merchandise merchandising, partnerships, and the licensing of its brand for various consumer products like clothing, accessories, and toys. This segment allows Ferrari to leverage its strong brand equity and reach broader markets beyond just automobile sales.
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Formula One and Motorsport Activities: Ferrari has a long and storied history in motorsport, particularly in Formula One racing. The performance and marketing benefits derived from its racing division are significant, enhancing the brand’s image and appeal. Revenues from this segment come from sponsorships, prize money, and related activities.
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Ferrari Experiences and Customer Engagement: This segment includes activities focused on customer experience, such as factory tours, driving experiences, and the development of exclusive events for Ferrari owners. These experiences enhance customer loyalty and promote the brand's exclusivity.
Each of these segments contributes to Ferrari's overall business model, characterized by high-end luxury positioning, brand loyalty, and exceptional customer service, which align with the philosophies of creating long-term value in the business ecosystem.
Ferrari NV possesses several unique competitive advantages that differentiate it from its rivals in the luxury automotive segment. Here are some key factors:
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Brand Heritage and Prestige: Ferrari has a storied history that dates back to 1939, with a strong association with performance, luxury, and motorsport, particularly Formula 1. This heritage creates a powerful brand image that attracts affluent customers and enthusiasts.
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Racing Pedigree: Ferrari's longstanding success in motorsports, especially in Formula 1, enhances its brand visibility and credibility in performance engineering. The knowledge and technology gained from racing often translate into innovations in their consumer vehicles.
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Limited Production and Exclusivity: Ferrari adopts a strategy of limited production volumes, which enhances the exclusivity and desirability of its cars. Many models have a waiting list, maintaining high resale values and prestige for owners.
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Customization Options: The company offers extensive customization options for its vehicles, allowing customers to personalize their cars, enhancing their emotional connection to the brand. This bespoke approach differentiates Ferrari from mass-market luxury car manufacturers.
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Strong Financial Performance: Ferrari’s financial robustness allows for continuous investment in research and development, product innovation, and technology advancements. This positions the company to respond to market changes effectively and efficiently.
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Innovative Engineering and Technology: Ferrari is known for its focus on engineering excellence and cutting-edge technology. This commitment to innovation results in cars that often outperform competitors in speed, performance, and overall driving experience.
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Loyal Customer Base: Ferrari enjoys a devoted customer following and community, fostering brand loyalty and repeat business. Many customers view purchasing a Ferrari as not just an acquisition but as an investment in a lifestyle.
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Artistry and Design: Ferrari places a strong emphasis on the aesthetics and artistry of its cars, producing vehicles that combine high performance with stunning design. This appeals to both car enthusiasts and collectors who appreciate design as much as performance.
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Strong Aftermarket Service and Community Engagement: Ferrari maintains a focus on excellent customer service and engagement, including events, races, and exclusive experiences that keep owners connected to the brand.
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Resilience Against Economic Downturns: The luxury market often shows resilience during economic downturns, and Ferrari's positioning allows it to weather such periods better than lesser luxury brands.
Together, these factors create a formidable competitive moat for Ferrari in the high-end automotive market, allowing it to maintain its premium positioning and sustain profitability amidst competition.
Ferrari NV faces several risks and challenges in the near future that could impact its business operations and market performance. Here are some key considerations:
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Supply Chain Disruptions: Global supply chain issues, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions, can affect production timelines and costs. Shortages of critical components, such as semiconductors and raw materials, may hinder Ferrari's ability to meet demand.
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Shifts in Consumer Preferences: As consumer preferences evolve toward sustainability and electric vehicles, Ferrari must navigate the transition from traditional high-performance gas engines to hybrid and electric powertrains. Balancing its heritage and brand identity with modern demands can be challenging.
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Regulatory Compliance: Stricter emissions regulations in major markets, particularly in the European Union, could lead to increased costs for compliance or necessitate changes in vehicle design and technology. Failure to adapt to these regulations could result in fines or restrictions.
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Economic Uncertainty: Economic fluctuations, including potential recessions or downturns in luxury spending, can affect Ferrari's sales. As a luxury brand, it may be more susceptible to changes in disposable income among high-net-worth individuals.
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Competitive Pressures: The automotive industry is increasingly competitive with new entrants and established luxury brands expanding their offerings. Manufacturers are investing heavily in electric and performance vehicles, which could challenge Ferrari’s market position.
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Brand Image and Perception: With a strong heritage tied to performance and luxury, changes in brand image—whether through mismanagement, scandals, or negative publicity—could impact customer loyalty and sales.
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Geopolitical Risks: International trade policies, tariffs, and geopolitical tensions could affect Ferrari's global operations and supply chains, leading to increased costs or challenges in accessing key markets.
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Technology Integration: As Ferrari looks to incorporate more advanced technologies, including autonomous driving features and connectivity, there are inherent risks in technology adoption, cybersecurity threats, and potential failures of new systems.
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Market Saturation: The luxury automotive market may face saturation, particularly in certain regions. Ferrari must continuously innovate and expand its product lineup to capture new customer segments and maintain its exclusivity.
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Environmental and Social Governance (ESG) Expectations: Stakeholders increasingly expect companies to focus on sustainability. Failure to demonstrate commitment to ESG principles may lead to reputational risks and impact investor relations.
Addressing these risks effectively requires strategic planning, innovation, and a deep understanding of market trends to sustain Ferrari's premium brand position in the automotive industry.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Ferrari NV
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Ferrari NV
Current Assets | 4.6B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 1.5B |
Receivables | 1.8B |
Other Current Assets | 1.2B |
Non-Current Assets | 4.4B |
Long-Term Investments | 75.3m |
PP&E | 1.8B |
Intangibles | 2.3B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 234.4m |
Current Liabilities | 2.1B |
Accounts Payable | 859.2m |
Accrued Liabilities | 146.4m |
Other Current Liabilities | 1.1B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 3.6B |
Long-Term Debt | 3.1B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 489.1m |
Earnings Waterfall
Ferrari NV
Revenue
|
6.5B
EUR
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Cost of Revenue
|
-3.2B
EUR
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Gross Profit
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3.2B
EUR
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Operating Expenses
|
-1.4B
EUR
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Operating Income
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1.8B
EUR
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Other Expenses
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-353.5m
EUR
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Net Income
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1.4B
EUR
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Free Cash Flow Analysis
Ferrari NV
EUR | |
Free Cash Flow | EUR |
In Q3 2024, Ferrari reported a revenue of EUR 1.6 billion, marking a 7% increase year-over-year, alongside a robust EBIT of approximately EUR 470 million and an EBIT margin of 28.4%. Personalization contributed about 20% to revenue, enhancing profitability. The order book remains strong, fueled by the new F80 and 12Cilindri models, which are expected to bolster earnings through 2026. Looking ahead, the company maintains optimistic guidance for 2024, expecting EBIT above EUR 400 million in Q4 and industrial free cash flow up to EUR 950 million, although with a sequential decline due to rising expenses.
What is Earnings Call?
RACE Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Ferrari NV's profitability score is 71/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Ferrari NV's profitability score is 71/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
RACE Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Ferrari NV's solvency score is 76/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Ferrari NV's solvency score is 76/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
RACE Price Targets Summary
Ferrari NV
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for RACE is 447.49 EUR with a low forecast of 363.6 EUR and a high forecast of 552.38 EUR.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for RACE is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
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Dividend Yield
Description
Ferrari NV is a holding company, which engages in the design, engineering, production, and sale of luxury sports cars. The company is headquartered in Maranello, Modena and currently employs 4,609 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2016-01-04. The company operates under the Ferrari brand. Its sports cars portfolio includes, among others, F12berlinetta, FF, Ferrari 488 GTB, 488 Spider, 458 Speciale, Ferrari California T, F12tdf and LaFerrari. The firm also offers financing services through Ferrari Financial Services. The company also produces limited series and one-off cars. The firm divides its regional markets in EMEA (Europe, the Middle East, India and Africa), Americas, Greater China and Rest of APAC (Asia-Pacific region, excluding Greater China) and is active in over 60 markets worldwide through a network of authorized dealers.
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The intrinsic value of one RACE stock under the Base Case scenario is 152.31 EUR.
Compared to the current market price of 418.2 EUR, Ferrari NV is Overvalued by 64%.