Poste Italiane SpA

MIL:PST

Earnings Call Analysis

Poste Italiane Ups 2023 EBIT Guidance on Strong Q3

Poste Italiane showed robust third quarter results, with revenues climbing by 7% to nearly EUR 9 billion. Operating profitability gained 1.5% year-on-year to EUR 2.1 billion, despite inflation, leading to a net profit increase of 6% to EUR 1.5 billion. The company has surpassed the market with positive net flows in insurance and asset management and is boosting its EBIT guidance for 2023 to EUR 2.6 billion, while planning an interim dividend of EUR 0.24 per share. Cost management exceeded expectations with total costs at EUR 6.8 billion. A one-off employee bonus to address inflation has been agreed, with two-thirds booked this quarter and the rest in Q4. The firm expects EBIT for Mail, Parcel & Distribution to surpass breakeven guidance for the full year, supported by mail tariff re-pricing and increasing parcel volumes. Insurance Services continue strong, and Payments & Mobile sectors report double-digit growth, with significant expansion like Poste Energia surpassing 400,000 contracts.

Revenue and Earnings Beat with Heightened EBIT Guidance

Poste Italiane has exceeded its strategic plan for the first nine months of 2023, with revenues surging by 7% to nearly EUR 9 billion, paralleled by an EBIT leap to EUR 2.1 billion. Thanks to robust cost management amidst inflationary pressures, and solid operational performances across insurance and asset management, the company has confidently raised its 2023 EBIT guidance from EUR 2.5 billion to EUR 2.6 billion. An upcoming interim dividend, heightened by 13% from the previous year, demonstrates Poste Italiane's commitment to shareholder returns.

Poste Italiane's Evolving Segments and the Parcel Volume Surge

Mail, Parcel & Distribution saw a moderate revenue increase of 2% within the quarter despite a notable dip in EBIT due to an employee bonus initiative. However, promising parcel volume that escalated by 7%, driven by strong business-to-consumer growth and a rebound in Chinese volumes, paints a bright picture. Anticipating the complete financial year, this segment is projected to exceed expectations and break even, with Mail revenue benefiting from re-pricing actions and a 10% tariff hike.

Dynamic Financial Services and Insurance Sector Performance

The Financial Services sector, though challenged by postal savings headwinds, exhibited strong gross revenues, thanks primarily to net interest income and a resilient commercial demeanor. Insurance Services delivered robust net inflows, significantly outdoing the industry average in a tough market. The stable life insurance revenue is buttressed by customers' penchant for capital-guaranteed policies, contributing to a mere 4% lapse rate. The combined ratio in the non-life segment remained healthy, reinforcing the company's solid insurance fundamentals.

Payments & Mobile and Energy Endeavors Demonstrate Vigorous Expansion

The Payments & Mobile division, incorporating recently integrated energy and lease businesses, has enjoyed 37% and 44% revenue upticks quarter-on-quarter and year-to-date, respectively. Dedication to card payments, transaction growth, and command in non-discretionary spending continues to propel this division forward, offsetting initial costs associated with the burgeoning Energy business. This success is manifesting in an impressive EBIT increase of 17%, indicating profitable efficiency within the business model.

A Closer Look at Operating Efficiency and Cost Management

In an era marked by rising HR and non-HR costs, Poste Italiane has managed a downward trend in ordinary HR expenses relative to revenues, underscoring effective cost control endeavours. Moreover, the company is actively managing average headcounts and reinforcing value-added per employee—indicative of an overarching strategy focused on optimizing operational efficiency and protecting profitability in the face of inflationary pressures.

Concluding Confidence and Shareholder Focus

With year-end indicators surpassing expectations, Poste Italiane remains steadfast in its trajectory of increasing profitability and shareholder remuneration. Upgraded full-year EBIT guidance aligns with the pursuit of investments to bolster technology, products, and services. Management's evident priority on shareholder value is reaffirmed by the company's consistent performance delivery and a heartfelt commitment to sustaining this trend into the future.

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q3

[Giuseppe Esposito, executive]

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I'm Giuseppe Esposito, Investor Relations. On behalf of Poste Italiane's management team, it is my pleasure to welcome you today for our third quarter 2023 results. I'm sure you have all had the chance to review the documents, which as usual are available on Investor Relations section of our website.Let me hand over to our CEO, Matteo Del Fante for some opening remarks. Then our CFO, Camillo Greco, for the financials. At the end of the presentation, you can ask questions either by phone or through our webcast platform.Over to you, Matteo.

[Matteo del Fante, executive]

Thank you, Giuseppe. Good morning, everybody, and thank you for joining our 2023 third quarter results call. On Slide 3, you can see some key highlights. We are over delivering against our strategic plan into the 9-months of 2023, with revenues up 7% year-on- year, to close to EUR 9 billion, an EBIT reaching EUR 2.1 billion, supported also by our continuous cost discipline in this inflationary environment.We continue to see positive net flows in insurance and asset management outperforming a challenging market. We deliver solid results, while maintaining a strong balance sheet. Thanks to our financial outperformance, we're raising our 2023 EBIT guidance to EUR 2.6 billion. Let me remind you that on November 22, we will be paying our interim dividend of EUR 0.24 per share for a total of EUR 307 million which is up 13% from last year.Let's move to the financials on Slide 4. Year-to-date, the top line comes in at EUR 8.9 billion. Total costs of EUR 6.8 billion were better than expected, considering investment in business growth and successfully managing the impact from inflation.Operating profitability of EUR 2.1 billion is up 1.5% year-on-year with the positive one-off capital gain on sennder in Q2 as well as the extraordinary staff bonus in this quarter.As for the latter, the outstanding contribution to the group performance by our people has been recognized and we are all pleased to be able to pay a one-off bonus of EUR 1,000 for all employees. Such a bonus, agreed in August 2023, has been granted also to mitigate the inflationary pressures with the period covered by the current collective agreement at the outset of the negotiation for the new labor agreement. 2/3 of the total amount will be booked this quarter and the remaining over Q4. Finally, net profit was up 6% to EUR 1.5 billion.Moving to Slide 5, where you can see the healthy underlying revenue progression in our platform. Positive trends, coupled with our commercial efforts, have delivered another set of strong results.In Mail, Parcel & Distribution, all segments contributed to the division's top-line growth, thanks to Mail tariff re-pricing and a favorable business mix, as well as parcel volumes pick up.In Financial Services, whilst revenues have increased year-to-date, supported by NII and asset management, as Parcel volumes pick up. In Financial Services, whilst revenues had increased year-to-date, supported by NII and asset management, the quarter was impacted by headwinds in postal savings. We, together with CDP, are currently fine-tuning some adjustments to the 2023 Terms of Agreement and starting discussions for 2024 onwards. I am confident that our renewed joint efforts will pay off.Insurance Services show positive net flows, outpacing a challenging market environment. Our lapse rate remains less than half of the market and revenues are in line with full year guidance.Payments & Mobile continue to grow double-digit, benefiting from our leadership in e-commerce and higher exposure to non-discretionary spending compared to many of our peers. Finally, let me highlight that Poste Energia has now reached over 400,000 contracts, more than the original plan that we have envisaged for 2023.Let's go to Slide 6, and EBIT evolution segment by segment. Mail, Parcel & Distribution shows a resilient operating profitability, excluding the EUR 90 million relating to the one-off employee bonus. In light of these strong results, we are expecting Mail, Parcel & Distribution full year 2023 EBIT to be ahead of our guidance at break-even.Since 2017, with the Deliver 2022 and the 2024 Sustain and Innovate plans, we started a transformational journey with the objective of becoming a leading player in the Parcel sector, while managing the secular decline of the Mail business.Looking at the future, we are now entering another chapter, where we will further invest to generate growth across the logistic value chain and in new businesses such as contract logistics and cross-border.In Financial Services, the operating progression continues to be mostly driven by NII increase, supported by higher interest rates, stable retail and corporate deposits, and stable cost of funding.Insurance Service EBIT is in line with our plan, mirroring the revenue dynamics I've just described. Payments & Mobile, constant double-digit growth, is further supported by strong revenue trends and lease consolidation, more than compensating energy business startup costs. Building our platform vision is becoming a reality and is also creating strong benefits from diversification.Moving to Slide 7. Thanks to our proven business model that leverages on diversification, we constantly deliver financial over performance driven by commercial results and cost discipline. We therefore feel comfortable in acting our 2023 EBIT guidance from the original target of EUR 2.5 billion to EUR 2.6 billion. Since going public, we have distributed around EUR 5 billion to our shareholders, with the dividend per share growing at a 9% annualized rate.Let's move to a more detailed review of the financials with Camillo Greco, our CFO. Over to you, Camillo.^Camillo Greco^ Thank you Matteo, and good morning, everyone. Let's start on Slide 9 with Mail, Parcel & Distribution, where segment revenues grew 2% reaching EUR 860 million in the quarter. Mail revenues are growing, up 1% in Q3, thanks to a favorable product mix and ongoing re-pricing actions. Parcel revenues in the quarter are up 2% to EUR 333 million, driven by increasing volumes mitigating the reduced contribution from PPE logistic contract, as well as the reconsolidation of sennder Italia.Adjusting for these items, Parcel revenues are up 6%. Resilient commercial trends have led to stable distribution revenues in the quarter. EBIT in Q3 was down to a negative EUR 93 million as a result of the one-off bonus for our employees of EUR 1,000 per head, equivalent to a total cost for the group of EUR 140 million, EUR 90 million of which booked in this quarter and the remainder in the final quarter of this year. As Matteo anticipated, in light of these results, we are expecting Mail, Parcel & Distribution for year 2023 EBIT to be ahead of our guidance and therefore at breakeven.Let's look at volumes and tariffs on Slide #10. Parcel volumes further accelerated in the quarter, up 7%, supported by healthy B2C growth and recovering China volumes. Looking at pricing, the slight reduction in Parcel tariff is related to increasing volumes, translating into lower unit costs.Moving to Mail, as a result of continuous repricing actions coupled with favorable product mix, we have offset the structural decline in lower margin recorded items in the quarter. Tariff increased by 10% in Q3 and by 8% in the 9 months of 2023.Moving to Financial Services on slide #11. Gross revenues were up 4% year-to-date, reaching EUR 4.5 billion, mostly driven by NII and resilient commercial performance. Let me remind you that, revenue growth in the first 9 months was achieved without contribution from active portfolio management in Q2 and Q3. Instead, a higher-quality revenue stream came from net interest income at EUR 1.7 billion in the 9 months, up 21%, and EUR 566 million in Q3, up 8%. This was supported by higher interest rates, increasing retail and corporate deposits and lower-than-planned cost of funding.Postal savings distribution fees amounted to EUR 374 million in Q3, down 7%, and to EUR 1.2 billion year-to-date, in line with the first 9 months of 2022. These results are still impacted by high interest rates environment, leading to increased postal bond redemptions.Postal savings remain core to our product offer, and as Matteo said earlier, we are currently finalizing some revisions of the agreement with CDP for 2023 to take into consideration the impact from the new market trends.In Q3, transaction banking fees were impacted by lower current accounts repricing applied from April 2023, partially mitigated by other payment service fees, leading to EUR 185 million in revenues, down 8%. Finally, EBIT is stable in the first 9 months, at EUR 648 million, and down 21% in Q3.Moving to Slide 12, TFA has reached EUR 580 billion, up just over €4 billion since December, supported by positive market effects. Let's look at each component. Year-to-date, postal savings outflows were at EUR 7 billion, improving year-on-year, thanks to the recently revamped postal book Offerta Supersmart, which successfully attracted new customer liquidity. Postal bonds had a strong gross inflow year-on-year, but were impacted by early redemptions, driven by growing interest rates and following a number of postal bond repricings.A positive market effect mitigated the outflows with EUR 3.8 billion. Insurance net inflows were at EUR 3.4 billion in the first 9 months, with the product mix mirroring customers' increased demand for capital-guaranteed policies. Also, in Q3, net inflows continued to be positive, outpacing a challenging market. Deposits and assets under custody were stable quarter-on-quarter, and retail deposits were flat in Q3, confirming stickiness of our customer base. Finally, net inflows in savings and investments reached EUR 800 million, supported by distribution of insurance products and newly launched fixed income funds.Moving to Slide #13, we have restated last year's Q3 figures according to IFRS 17 standards, and these quarter results have confirmed positive segment revenues evolution. Revenues amounted to EUR 371 million in Q3, up 7%, and are stable at EUR 1.1 billion in the 9-months. We continue to have positive net inflows in Q3, with a lapse rate of circa 4%, less than half the market average, in a challenging environment for life insurance investment products.CSM release was at EUR 308 million, up year-on-year, with CSM stock after release at EUR 12.8 billion. Non-life net revenues were up 27% in the quarter, supported by higher GWP in protection and net insurance consolidation, which represents an enable to accelerate the growth of our protection business.In fact, protection GWP was up 54% year-on-year to EUR 194 million in Q3, and up 59% to EUR 621 million in the 9 months, EUR 130 million of which came from net insurance. Combined ratio was at 85%, in line with our full year guidance of less than 88%. In Q3 EBIT was EUR 322 million, up 8% compared to Q3 '22, and 9 months EBIT was EUR 986 million, stable year-on-year.Let's look at the Solvency Ratio evolution on Slide #14. Poste Vita Group's Solvency II ratio 252 percentage points, above the managerial ambition of 200% through the cycle. The ratio already embeds the impact of minus 11 percentage points in relation to a foreseeable dividend to the parent, based on the 75% payout ratio, which was increased from 50% at the end of Q1.Thanks to our reduced sensitivity to movement in rates and spreads, the impact from the increase in these variables was 22 percentage points. Solvency II Ratio is currently between 240% and 260%.Moving to Payments & Mobile on Slide #15. The quarter continues to see strong performance from all business lines, including the least consolidation from September 2022. Overall, revenues grew 37% in the quarter to EUR 405 million, and 44% in the first 9 months, reaching EUR 1.1 billion. Top-line growth remains double-digit in 9 months, even when excluding the contribution of energy and lease.Looking at the details, card payments revenues grew by 21% to EUR 187 million in the quarter. Total transaction value grew 12% since Q3 2022, whilst e-commerce value rose 18%. Let me remind you, we continue to benefit from our strong positioning in non-discretionary spending, which continues to grow.\Other payments grew 60% in the quarter and more than doubled year-to-date, mainly driven by increased payment transactions, directly managed by Postepay as payment service provider.Telco revenues grew 4% in Q3 and 5% year-to-date, supported also by the fiber and confirming the loyalty of our customer base. Finally, our new Energy business has been successfully growing, with over 400,000 contracts signed since launch, above our guidance for full year 2023, with revenues reaching EUR 82 million year-to-date. Yet again, EBIT reached a record high level, growing 17% to EUR 118 million, thanks to strong revenue growth, more than compensating Energy business startup costs.On Slide 16, we look at the evolution of our workforce. Since December, the average headcount decreased to around 118,000, excluding M&A, but taking into account new highs of 6,500 FTEs. M&A activity added 700 FTEs to the average headcount. HR per FTE are up nearly 4% year-on-year to EUR 44,500, related to salary increase and commercial incentives. But the value added per FTE is growing too, at a faster rate of almost 6% year-on-year, at just under EUR 81,000 per FTE.Moving to group HR costs on Slide #17. Before the application of IFRS 17, ordinary HR costs were slightly higher year-on-year, with higher variable compensation reflecting the strong commercial results, while continued FTEs reduction mitigated the planned salary increase. The adoption of IFRS 17, which requires costs borne by the Insurance Services to remunerate the network to be accounted for in the CSM released over the term of the insurance policies, resulted in EUR 365 million lower HR costs on a reported basis in the 9 months.Importantly, in the 9 months, ordinary HR costs on revenues continued to fall from 43% to 41% year-on-year, proving our continued effort to manage costs in this inflationary environment.Moving to Page #18. Excluding the effect of IFRS 17 and net of M&A, non-HR costs increased by EUR 212 million in the 9 months. In particular, costs were up EUR 177 million, including EUR 73 million energy-related business costs and EUR 32 million of cost inflation.D&A was up EUR 35 million due to higher CapEx already embedded in our guidance. Finally, the businesses that we have acquired contributed EUR 175 million of additional costs. More in general, our focus on cost control remains laser-sharp and protecting the bottom-line profitability remains our top priority.Thank you for your time. Let me hand over to Matteo for the wrap-up.

[Matteo del Fante, executive]

Thank you, Camillo. As you have just seen, the year is progressing ahead of plan. Our strong platform, combined with continuous cost discipline, has led us to sustainable, increasing profitability and shareholder remuneration. We are uniquely positioned to capture a supportive commercial trend with a diversified business model that has proven to work through the cycle.Results to date prove that the strong financial foundation we have laid mean that our platform can maintain these trends into the full year. As a result, we're confident in our ability to deliver results and therefore we're upgrading our full year 2023 EBIT guidance to EUR 2.6 billion.We continue to invest to further improve our capability across technology products and people, while preserving our solid balance sheets. Just as a reminder on November 22, we will be paying our interim dividend of EUR 0.24 per share for a total of EUR 307 million, up 13% from last year. It is fair to say that, we are reassuringly consistent in our delivery and we will continue to do so.Finally, as you know, we're working on our new strategic plan. That will present to the market on March 20, 2024 along with our full year 2023 results. The new plan lays out the strategy underpinning the transformation of our logistic business and the evolution our platform aim at maximizing the value of our business.Thank you. Giuseppe Esposito over to you for the QA.

[Giuseppe Esposito, executive]

Thank you, Matteo. [Operator Instructions] The first question is from Gian Ferrari, Mediobanca.

[Gian Ferrari, analyst]

The first is for Matteo. You just mentioned the announcement of a new plan on March 20, I think we were expecting the plan in Q4 this year. So my question for you is, are you postponing the presentation of the plan because of what we are reading regarding a privatization plan of the government or because the negotiation with unions is taking longer, so if you can elaborate a bit about the postponement?Then I have some questions on the decline in the Solvency Ratio from 274% to 252%. It is mainly coming from an increase in the FCR From EUR 4.8 billion to EUR 5.2 billion at Page 36, you are reporting more than EUR 500 million increase due to underwriting risk, if you can elaborate a bit on that? Still on Solvency, the fact that in Q3 cap-gen and the accrual of the levy was the same. So basically there are no retained earnings. Is this something Q3 specific or not only Q3 and is that sustainable in your opinion?And moving to P&C Insurance, it seems that for you guys Q3 was not exactly eventful in terms of cap losses while for your Italian competitors it has been a blood bath. So, I was wondering, why your combined ratio is holding up so well. Is there any reinsurance treaty that is taking a role here or you are not exposed to the events in Emilia-Romagna, Lombardia and unfortunately now Tuscany?The final question is on the great result for the second quarter in a row from BancoPosta Fondi SGR. You are mentioning the target maturity fund. I was wondering if and how much is the upfront component behind this target maturity. And if this is the reason why for 2 quarters in a row BancoPosta Fondi has done this big jump compared to the usual EUR 30 million per quarter run rate.

[Matteo del Fante, executive]

Yes, we are today announcing the March 2024 has the date for our new strategic plan. We have read on the press ourselves the potential privatization of the stake of Poste, but these are decisions that are with our shareholders and we don't comment.The labor contract is under negotiation. It is an important one, because it is the one that would -- that will in our expectations change the operating model of our Mail and Parcel. In a nutshell, as opposed to being a Mail network that does joint delivery of parcel, we will become a Parcel network that does joint delivery of Mail. And you understand that this is a very meaningful step that we are working very intensively with all the unions and all the colleagues in our logistic space.Another item that is pushing us to take a bit more time and come to the market as all is done once we are very comfortable of what we can present and commit to is clearly the headwind we have faced in postal savings. You have seen the figures also this quarter. We are now at the bottom of the range that we have in our contract, EUR 1.6 billion to EUR 1.85 billion. In the quarter, we are booking the bottom end of the range and this for a new plan we believe for the new effort needs to have some adjustment. And last, but not least, we are undergoing an important effort to overhaul our service model in retail, basically pushing ahead the omni-channel strategy that we have already started working on. We have already discussed with the market for a few quarters.On the second question on Solvency that has different aspects, I will leave it to Camillo and then if Camillo has written all the questions, you can carry on answering and if something is missing, please, Massimo, you can chip in and ask if something is missing in the answer.

[Camillo Greco, executive]

Thank you for the questions. Let's start with solvency. Point #1, we had a reduction in Solvency between Q2 and Q3, and I think looking on the positive side, that has been in a way supporting the effort we have done to reduce the volatility of Poste Vita to BTP and to spread as you have seen in the appendix, there is a material reduction sensitivity, so we feel good about that.With respect to the point around capital generation of 4 points, the capital generation of 4 points is also driven by the fact that as you might have seen, we have had net inflows in insurance business of circa EUR 300 million compared to EUR 3.1 billion in the first half and that has led clearly to a lower capital generation.The next question was whether we think that this level supports the payout ratio which have accrued year-to-date. The answer is unequivocally yes, so we feel good about that. Then you had a question as to whether we have exposure to the natural disasters that have impacted the northern part of Italy earlier in the year. The answer is no, we have a very small exposure indirectly to our stake in net insurance but not directly to our, let's call it incumbent business.Then you had a question around BancoPosta and our funds, maturity funds, they have an underwriting fee of 1% upfront and they have been, as you rightly noted, growing quite nicely throughout the year.

[Giuseppe Esposito, executive]

Our next question comes from Michael Huttner at Berenberg.

[Michael Huttner, analyst]

Upgrades is always lovely. I was hoping for dividends as well but never mind. I have 3 questions. The first one is on the CSM, the second one is on something which is to do with your plan, the logistics and the third one is on the Parcels growth. On the CSM, this is the contractual service margin in insurance. I was reminded that Q2 the figure was EUR 13.3 billion, EUR 13.253 billion and now the figure is EUR 12.8 billion, EUR 12.820 billion. So there's actually a decline and I just wondered whether you could comment on that and the run rate you expect or the growth in this thing. The reason it's important is it does actually feed, as you quite rightly said, it does actually feed in your capital generation but any extra insights would be lovely.The second is on the logistics. I found out this morning from your excellent IR team that at the moment when you deliver parcels, 70% goes to outside providers, 30% is kind of in-house as it were and I just wondered what the kind of financial benefit would be. How much does each percentage point cost or I don't know, any way that you can kind of give us maybe some feel of when you change the labor agreement, how this could feed through here?And then the last one is also in the same division, parcels, 6% growth is fantastic, it's really, really, really strong underlying and I just wondered what kind of run rate we should be expecting. I know that, you're saying China's back and I think you've got a new contract or something but maybe just to get a feel?

[Matteo del Fante, executive]

I'll leave it to Camillo and then I'll take maybe the plan/logistics.

[Camillo Greco, executive]

Yes. So with respect to the evolution of the CSM, it is through that it landed EUR 12.8 billion in Q3, I want to strongly underline the fact that IFRS 17 naturally includes an element of quarter-on-quarter volatility as market assumptions do change on a quarterly basis and clearly the CSM reflects that. The CSM also is, however, ahead of where it was in the same period last year and it has been growing through the quarter.So I wouldn't look at a single quarter indication of where we are. We are at EUR 13 billion which is in line with what was the quarter before. But to answer more specifically the point, I think what has happened is we continue to have positive net inflows which help to increase the CSM. We had some operating variances which led to having the lapse rate increasing by circa 50 points from 3.5% to 4% which led to operating variances which were negative.And then as you probably have noticed during my speech on overall Solvency, market assumptions changed materially in terms of spreads going up and that led also to what we call unwinding and economics playing negatively. But again, I think it's physiological to this ratio that there is some volatility quarter-on-quarter. The important thing is that we continue to have new business generating incremental CSM. So this is the question on CSM.

[Matteo del Fante, executive]

On logistics, Michael, our strategy is to occupy the space of the B2C domain. Customers and clients, thanks to competition, are expecting faster products. A couple of years ago, the next day delivery was already a big achievement. Today, we're talking same-day delivery, we're talking instant delivery. So you need to have flexibility to occupy that space and that flexibility goes also into weekend deliveries.In logistics, in B2C, the big Monday problem because clients and people tend to put their orders often over the weekend and so if you order something on a Friday afternoon or on a Saturday, if you cannot deliver that item on the Sunday, it means that on Monday you have extra volumes related to 1 extra day of orders. And that flexibility certainly has to come from our network, so from our direct employees and that's part of the new negotiation with the unions. But we cannot get all the flexibility from our employees.So since we did the acquisition of Nexive 3-years ago, we acquired a network that can provide flexibility in weekends, that can provide the flexibility in peak periods, which volumes in peak are very rare and are very valuable and they can get you volumes for the rest of the year, if you can provide the increase of volume during the peak. So this is part of our strategy and as I said in my speech, occupying the space in B2C is something that we have now achieved as a target and the 6% growth is clear proof of this achievement. Now, it becomes a game of going up the value chain. So once you have clients that are doing B2C, but are also doing B2B and warehousing, you are in the best position to offer a contract where you handle the full logistic needs of the client. And we started this journey last year of going up the value chain and this is going to be clearly the focus of our transformation in the plan that we will present shortly.

[Giuseppe Esposito, executive]

Our next question comes Azzurra Guelfi at Citigroup.

[Azzurra Guelfi, analyst]

Couple of questions for me. A couple of questions from me. One is on the Mail division. So the main repricing, which started in the summer has given a visible balance sheet already. Is it all done? Or there is more coming in the next couple of months? The second one would be on the EBIT upgrade guidance. Is it fair to say that, it is mostly coming from better Mail and Parcel and Payment and we haven't seen any improvement on the bottom line guidance and any review of the dividend policy. Is it too early to discuss that and if you can give us some color on that? And if I may, the last one on the postal saving. The outflows have decreased this quarter. If you can give us some color on what are you discussing with CDP and if you expect this trend of improving outflows to continue?

[Matteo del Fante, executive]

Okay, I'll start with the last question on postal savings and let Camillo handle the first 2. Azzurra, 2022 and the first half of 2023, it was a kind of it was kind of expected, but not to this extent. Obviously, we were coming from decade of low yields where all our clients have bought low yielding postal savings. So, with the sharp historical increase of interest rate being postal savings put able at par plus accrued interest, it was natural to expect a sharp increase in early redemptions.What we're seeing in this quarter and the second part of your question, what we are expecting to see going forward is a normalization. So, what we're seeing in the quarter, we're also seeing this quarter and hopefully will be part of the 2024 scenario. And this is thanks to a revamp offer that CDP put on the table for us, which was very important and specifically Camillo mentioned the postal savings, the passbook, the Libretto Postale, which has achieved very interesting net inflows. And the repricing of the old postal savings product range, the bonds. So, both on site deposits and bonds products are now allowing us to have a better offer and this is clearly very important for net results and net funding on postal savings.

[Camillo Greco, executive]

So, next question, Azzurra, the first one was around mainly repricing. So, the first mega message that we need to pass here is that these repricings are not a one-off, but they are ongoing. To be clear, what we have done since 2022 in terms of repricing has translated into circa EUR 60 million to EUR 70 million of incremental revenues to the correspondence business. And we have on a weekly basis meetings with the key decision makers in the business to ensure that our price is consistent with the service that we provide. So, we will continue going forward to increase prices to ensure that we cover our costs, which is what any economical operator would do.With respect to the EBIT upgrade from EUR 2.5 billion on EUR 2.6 billion, that is really driven by, yes, the performance of Mail and Parcel and the performance of, frankly, also the other divisions. But if we want to be precise, as we had a negative 0.1 target for Mail, Parcel & Distribution, now we are guiding towards a breakeven of that division. I think I would conclude that Mail and Parcel is probably the biggest contributor for that achievement.With respect to why an increase of EBIT does not translate into a new target, net profit, consequential and increased dividend, I think that what we are saying here is simply that we want to be consistent with what we did last year. You might recall that in Q3, we also increased our guidance from EUR 2.2 billion, EUR 2.3 billion and we revised instead the dividend policy only when we closed actually the year and we saw what was the actual net income of the year. The idea is to do exactly the same also in 2023.

[Matteo del Fante, executive]

Yes, and just on the repricing, Azzurra, you have to bear in mind that we earn around EUR 1 on average per item we deliver, but the unregistered items, the bills we send, the bank statements we send at home of our clients are paid around EUR 0.30. So EUR 0.30 when you have meaningful volumes, so every time the postman stops at a house can deliver 3, 4, 5, 10 items can justify the price. But when you are at volumes that in Italy are now 1 item every 10 days per head, which is less than half of European average and is 1/3 of some of the large European markets, you cannot afford to have EUR 0.3. Because EUR 0.3 is clearly in today's world not enough to remunerate the work we do. So the repricing we carry on, so every new contract that goes to maturity we are forcing the repricing because even beyond inflation this is just bringing the product to the real value considering that volumes are not there anymore.

[Giuseppe Esposito, executive]

Next question is from Farooq Hanif, JPMorgan.

[Farooq Hanif, analyst]

Just going back on questions from Azzurra and Michael, so can you tell us the progress of getting that flexibility that you want around Parcel timing but also joint Mail and Parcel delivery? How confident are you that you can get that kind of 30% in-house up to a much bigger number and to what extent, I mean going back on Michael's question, to what extent do you think this really does massively offset inflationary pressures on HR costs and other costs?And then going also back on Azzurra's question, what is the elasticity of the Mail pricing? So clearly, you have a justification to raise prices but how far can you actually go if, for example, the agreement that you get with the unions is not going to plan? And then I guess a last point which I'm sure you won't be able to answer but I'm going to try. What do you see is, I mean, from your point of view, what would be an ideal government ownership of your stock?

[Matteo del Fante, executive]

Okay. I'm not sure on flexibility, Farooq. I can answer more than what I say in my answer, in my second answer to Michael. But this is really the biggest focus we have on the table and it's a bit like, 6 to 7-years ago when Poste was the first mail operator to do alternative days, you remember that by law all around the world, the old postal operator had to deliver by law Mail every day. And Poste Italiane was the first player in the world to go on alternative days. So we are doing today Mail, Monday, Wednesday, Friday one week and Tuesday, Thursday the following week.And since then several, other players have followed our initiative. And I recall that time because we went very open to the unions at the time saying, guys, we are doing this to keep the boat afloat, to keep the jobs in the payrolls. If, you're not ready to, come to this new agreement, it's not a problem for the company, it's more a problem for the employees, because luckily enough Poste is, making significant margins on all the other segments. So we are optimistic, Farooq, that this message will go through.Obviously this flexibility is not a flexibility that you ask overnight to current employees. It's not that, you take the 30,000 lettermen we have and you tell them, starting from next Monday you're going to have to change your, work habits and work hours from next Monday. It is a process where new hires will have new contracts and new targets. And slowly, given, the age of this part of our population of workers, it's relatively high and gradually, you will replace the more rigid labor force with more flexible one on your payroll.At the same time, you need to use also other networks to gain on your payroll. At the same time, you need to use also other networks to gain the flexibility that will allow you to have the best offer for B2C clients. One thing that I didn't mention is the role that is becoming more and more important in B2C of the PUDO, the point of delivery alternative to home. So this -- there is a trend globally, which for sustainability and for efficiency and the cost effectiveness is pushing the channel of non-home B2C very, very strongly to the extent that in some cities home deliveries are blocked and people are forced to take their parcels from, lockers or alternative points where the delivery company will do one single stop and drop, 15 or 20 parcels as opposed to do, 20 stops in 20 different locations.On this trend, we are very, very well positioned because the acquisition of LIS has given us up to 55,000 alternative points and we're using only 16,000 today. So, we only use the best ones where we have coincidence, which means at least 3 parcels per stop and then you add our 13,000 postal offices. So, our -- alternative home delivery footprint is unbeatable at the moment and that's why -- the likes of, Amazon, Vinted, Zalando and now more and more Chinese clients are using ourselves. And clearly that's also a channel that is giving us additional flexibility and cost competitiveness.On the second point of elasticity on repricing, there is not a great link on elasticity repricing and the labor contract. We handle every contract on a case-by-case basis. In the last 2 years, we went several times on a no bid. There was a tender position where we wouldn't see the margins only to win that contract at a later stage.So, I believe that, there is more room to go in this and we need it because pricing volumes will keep going down. There will be initiatives to make recorded Mails, which is where we make, higher margins to go electronic. So, we have headwinds on Mail anyway. So, we desperately need to do the repricing on Mail together with the change of the model around parcel as opposed to Mail as we organized today.Sorry, I almost forgot your third question. All I can tell you is a good opportunity for me to tell you that obviously we talk to investors, we talk to sell-side. And if the government were to sell, let's say, from 10%, 15% up to 20% stake in Poste, the amount of shares floated would finally allow larger investors to consider the investment case.We are clearly capped today by small turnover. So, our estimate is that hard for a fund to consider an investment above EUR 100 million because it takes too many days to put on and put out the position. Increasing the free float, depending on obviously the size, listening to some of the key sell side brokers tells us that we should target investors up to EUR 300 million. So, it would put Poste in a completely different game where we believe we have something to say and we have some value to bring to larger investors in larger portfolios.

[Giuseppe Esposito, executive]

Next question comes from Manuela Meroni in Banca IMI.

[Manuela Meroni, analyst]

I have 3 questions. The first one is on NII. NII has stabilized in the quarter compared with the previous one. What are you expecting going forward? Do you expect NII to a plateau or do you expect the NII to further move up or down? Also considering that probably the rates have reached their top and they will decline at some stage.The second question is on postal savings. You already partially mentioned that revenues from postal savings have been at the bottom of the range, while the outflows have reduced. So, I'm wondering what we should see in order to have postal savings revenues above the minimum of the range and if you can elaborate on this difference between trends in outflows and trends in postal savings?The last question is on early retirement costs. How many early retirement costs are you embedding in your guidance for the breakeven in Mail and Parcel in 2023?

[Matteo del Fante, executive]

I'll start with postal savings and give a brief introduction on NII and then let Camillo complete on NII and early retirement so question 1 and 3. There is a lot of work going on in postal savings with CDP, especially because there are very meaningful redemptions in the next 3 years and so we need to be prepared to face the flow. I must say that, compared to a few months ago, the machine is much more focused. We hire a lot of people, especially in the consultancy side of postal offices that don't have the culture and the history of postal savings that obviously belong to our D&A. So, we've done a lot of training there, we've done a lot of time on the road together with the colleagues also of CDP and this is from the feedback from the ground proving very positive.So, not much else to say beyond, Manuela, that we hope to and we have already in our upgrade some positive, some small upside for the last quarter of 2023. But more importantly, we're planning the new agreement for 2024 and beyond in order to be clearly above that floor.On NII, Camillo will give you the details. You mentioned rates having probably reached the top and maybe over the next few months most likely starting to decrease again. We are clearly less sensible to that. What I wanted to say is an introduction that we have worked intensively over the last few months to protect the 2024, 2025 and 2026 NII. Contrary to financial institutions, we're buying bonds, we're not doing loans. So, our bonds are fixed rate and we are much less exposed to reduction of rates in terms of NII. So, in a way, if I may be a bit provocative, if not personal, given the personal exposure that myself and all the managers have to the Poste shares, we're waiting for that reversal in interest rate. Because that's when Poste will prove in relative terms to be much more performing than our financial institution peers. Please, Camillo.

[Camillo Greco, executive]

So, with respect to NII, some data facts. So, we have expressed a target for 2023 of EUR 2.2 billion. I think we confirmed that number and we confirmed the upper end of that interval. With respect to the flexibility that we have also going forward to retain this level or grow, as the CEO just said, we have implemented an effort in 2023 to increase our exposure to fixed interest and I think our fixed portfolio at this point is 70%-30%, i.e. 70% is fixed, 30% is variable. And based on where we are today in 2024, that percentage of fixed will increase from 705 to 75% and the variable going down from 305 to 25%.With respect to in 2023, what does that upper end of EUR 2.2 billion mean is that we are targeting a net yield on our portfolio of around 2.5%. We see that level increasing in the next couple of years, so around 15 basis points a year. In lower rates, what happens? In lower rates, we have -- if rates were to go down, we would have a compression of around 13 basis points in 2024.Yes, and then there was a question, sorry, Manuel, around early retirement charges. So, we have, as every year, planned to have a charge in Q4. At this point, we had shared in March 2023 a target of EUR 0.1 billion. That level is still confirmed.

[Giuseppe Esposito, executive]

Okay, we move to the next question from Alberto Villa, Intermonte.

[Alberto Villa, analyst]

A couple of questions from my side. The first one is on CDP again. You mentioned that there are discussions ongoing. I was wondering, if you will be updating on the negotiation outcome already for the business plan presentation, given that the span of the business plan is going beyond the agreement currently ongoing with CDP? The second question is on the provision you booked last year on the bonuses of EUR 320 million, the bonus schemes I'm referring to. Can you update us on what has happened to date on these provisions if you are considering to release or to keep this amount unchanged in the future on that specific item? And finally, you are delivering very good inflows in insurance compared to the rest of the industry, very low lapses. I was wondering if this trend is expected to continue and if you are expected to continue to outperform the rest of the industry? And if you have any comment on the final outcome of the Eurovita saga and the setup of the new company?

[Matteo del Fante, executive]

Okay. I'll leave Camillo on the tax credit. On CDP, the only thing I can add is that, there is an agreement to sign a new contract that will go in line with our plan. So even if the new contract would not cover our new plan, there is an agreement over the next few weeks to sign a new one with a longer term.On Insurance, I think there was a former question where I wanted to add and remind you that the average size of our insurance contract is around EUR 25,000, which is probably something a bit more than half of the market size, which is the same 50% value that we have on deposits, on current accounts. That is to give you an explanation for the fact that our clients are different from banks and our clients are less sensitive to interest rate market environment. And that's the main explanation of our below market lapse rate, which means we have also seen an increase and we're seeing an increase in lapse rate ourselves, but it's still significantly less than the market because our clients are different.And I think I've mentioned this several times, but you need to remember that Poste started collecting savings from Italians in 1875. So it's many, many years ago when Italians were bringing their savings to the post office, which means that bringing the money to the post office for Italians is putting the money safe somewhere, which goes with the fact that we have 93% of our assets under management, which are capital guaranteed. Because the flip side of being a safe harbor for Italian savings is the fact that, those savers don't expect to risk their capital with Poste. And that's why we are the biggest class one capital guaranteed seller in the country, because that's the typical product that our clients are expecting from Poste.So we will always be different and we want to remain different. We're not challenging the financial industry in their space. We believe that there are enough clients that have the needs that we provide with our products. And on Eurovita, we're going ahead. I think Camillo has some recent data. And then on tax credit, please, Camillo.

[Camillo Greco, executive]

Yes, so Eurovita, the transaction just closed a couple of days ago. So it's too early to really comment. We have seen some redemptions order, but 2% of the overall book. So I think it's too early to take a view on longer term. With respect to tax credit, instead, as you well remember, we did take a provision of EUR 320 million for 2022. We believe that provision was appropriate. And we have reopened the business beginning of October. And we have started to buy again consistently with Poste, obviously, according to what is requested by the law. We have acquired another around EUR 690 million of tax credit, and the overall portfolio was around EUR 18.5 billion at the 30th of September. We do not expect there to be a change in provision, nor a release of provision by the end of the year.

[Giuseppe Esposito, executive]

Okay, next question on the call is from Elena Perini from Banca IMI.

[Elena Perini, analyst]

I've got only 2 left. The first one is on your guidance 2023 for insurance. In terms of EBIT, well, the EUR 1.4 billion guidance would imply an acceleration in the final quarter, considering that you are at the moment at slightly less than EUR 1 billion. So I was wondering, if you can share with us some of the potential drivers of this implied acceleration compared with the average of the first 9 months.And then one technical question. Well, actually, looking at your financial database, I see that the financial income in Q3 for the insurance services was slightly negative or at least a break-even from a very strong case in the past quarter. So I was wondering, if there is something extraordinary element weighing on this P&L line in this quarter?

[Matteo del Fante, executive]

Elena, please, Camillo.

[Camillo Greco, executive]

So with respect to the first question on the target for full year for Poste Vita, I think that we had put out a level of EUR 1.4 billion for full year. That level is absolutely confirmed. To be clear, that interval means 1.351, 1.449. So we will land somewhere between the lower end and the upper end. And I think in terms of what will drive that, I think we obviously expect there to be a continued ramp-up on P&C, which you might remember at the beginning of the year was a bit more subdued, as the way IFRS 17 works is that you need to sort of book up front the contracts that are less profitable and then release profitability over time.So that will support as the business in Poste Vita, the question allows me to say that also in the early indications of November are positive on where we are in terms of performance. So there, too, I think that you should -- that also is supportive of that trend. With respect to your question around interest, I think that there is a level of detail which maybe we can discuss in a separate call.

[Giuseppe Esposito, executive]

We have now the last question from Ashik Musaddi of Morgan Stanley from our platform. The first question is on insurance lapse rates and we can say that has already been answered. The second question is on our outlook for parcel volumes beyond Q3 and in 2024. And the final question is, how confident is management that the bonus payment is a one-off and not a new starting point for the cost base for 2024 and beyond?

[Matteo del Fante, executive]

Okay. I think the game in Parcel volumes will be around volumes and margins going forward. So the outlook for 2024 is strong. All the positive we have seen in this quarter are confirmed in what we're seeing today in the month of October and the first few days of November. And there is no reason not to be optimistic about 2024 as well. But as I said, volumes are not enough and now we need to go into margins.On the second question -- yes -- yes. I mean, it's a good question. We are putting on the table EUR 140 million one-off for employees. Luckily, inflation is coming to a halt and is less pronounced than it was only a few weeks ago. It is clear to the unions that this is a one-off. And we did it before starting the negotiation exactly with the aim of delinking this decision from the contract itself. And it's more backward looking. You all know and you all remember that our employees during the COVID didn't have the opportunity to go on smart working. So smart working was not and is not very popular in Poste because people need to go to the office, people need to go to the sorting center and people need to go and deliver items on our behalf.So our people were exposed in the front line. We lost over 50 colleagues in the period. And we were among the few that kept the machine and the system going during that period. So we felt that, being COVID behind us, we had room in the income statement this year. And it was, an important signal to be given to our employees that have really put a lot of efforts in their job and in the company into that very, very difficult time. So delinking is finally the answer for Ashik.

[Giuseppe Esposito, executive]

No further questions.

[Matteo del Fante, executive]

So if there are no other questions, I thank you for the very interesting questions. Our Head of Relations Giuseppe Esposito is available together with obviously the CFO and the Head of Planning Massimiliano Riggi that you all know. For any additional questions and follow-up that you might have. And thank you for your time again and attention to Poste. Thank you.